Source: OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
CARBON CYCLE DYNAMICS WITHIN OREGON`S URBAN-SUBURBAN-FORESTED-AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPES PART 1
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1003554
Grant No.
2014-67003-22066
Project No.
OREZFES-867
Proposal No.
2014-04502
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A3161
Project Start Date
Aug 1, 2014
Project End Date
Jul 31, 2018
Grant Year
2014
Project Director
Law, B. E.
Recipient Organization
OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
CORVALLIS,OR 97331
Performing Department
Forest Ecosystem Science Prg
Non Technical Summary
The project team will study the effects of land use and land cover on the exchanges of carbon, water and energy with the atmosphere in current climate conditions across a gradient of urban-suburban agricultural and forested landscapes. An observation-driven analysis approach will be developed and applied, using land-atmosphere measurements, remote sensing data, and biological data from agricultural crops, forests and shrublands to map seasonal and annual carbon, water and anergy exchange with the atmosphere.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
40%
Applied
30%
Developmental
30%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1020120102050%
1310499100050%
Goals / Objectives
To study the effects of land use and land cover on the exchanges of carbon, water and energy in current and future climates across a gradient of urban-suburban agricultural and forested landscapes. Use remote sensing and field observations in artificial neural network analysis to examine current spatio-temporal patterns in carbon, water and energy exchange to address the following objectives:- Compare the effects of land use on carbon, water and energy exchange and local climate among flux sites within the same climate zone and among the mesic and semi-arid regions of Oregon.- Combine multi-scale observations from satellites, flux sites, inventories and tall tower greenhouse gas sites in neural networks to determine how contemporary climate, land-use and land cover influence carbon, water, and energy exchange within ecoregions and at regional scales.
Project Methods
We will compare observations at flux sites in Douglas-fir, grass seed crops and wheat crops in the mesic part of the region, and irrigated poplar and sagebrush in the semi-arid part of the region. The flux data will be analyzed to determine differences in carbon, water and energy fluxes among the land covers within and among climate zones, including partitioning of sensible and latent heat and effects on surface temperature and air temperature above the landscapes. New remote sensing data products will be used to scale biological data to the region. Neural network analysis will be applied using the remote sensing products, tower fluxes, and atmospheric data to quantify carbon, water and energy fluxes associated with land cover and climate in the region.

Progress 08/01/14 to 07/31/18

Outputs
Target Audience:The project engaged the following target audiences this year by various means: NIFA project directors at the Project Managers' Meeting; Agency Program Managers in the IWG of the North American Carbon Program; Research scientists and students in the following fields: Geophysics, Forestry, Biology. Our PhD student learned about communicating science to policy-makers through the process of contributing data to the report to the Oregon legislature. He had a NASA fellowship, but produced the fire emissions resultsin our report for the Oregon Global Warming Commission. The results of our project were used to teach graduate students in Dr. Law's class titled, Global Change Ecology. Dr Law worked for two years assisting the Oregon Global Warming Commission in assessing forest carbons stocks and fire emissions, and the net ecosystem carbon balance and forest sector emissions. NGOs and small landowners, lawyers, policy makers, and scientists. State legislature and Oregon Global Warming Commission. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Our PhD student learned about communicating science to policy-makers through the process of contributing data to the report to the Oregon legislature. He had a NASA fellowship, but produced the fire emissions results in our report for the Oregon Global Warming Commission. The results of our project were used to teach graduate students in Dr. Law's class titled, Global Change Ecology. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of this project were disseminated to the Oregon Global Warming Commission and Oregon's legislature, and reported in the press. We also presented results at stakeholder meetings regarding forest policy and the importance of forest carbon in the Pacific Northwest US. Conferences and training. The project provided a number of opportunities for training and professional development. Most notably, staff presented at the following conferences: North American Carbon Program PI Meeting, 2015 Ecological Society of America, NEON special session on integration of data, 2015 (Law) American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, 2015 (Law) ICOS Sweden, 2015 (Law) Harvard University, 2015 (Law) Association of Oregon Counties, 2015 (Law) USDA PI meetings Carnegie Institution of Science, Stanford University- Effects of drought, fire and management on forest processes (Law) Packard Foundation meeting with stakeholders and scientists on bioenergy emissions analysis (Law) Western Forest Carbon Conference, Seattle WA (Law) Oregon Coastal Caucus Economic Summit (OCCES) panel discussion, Lincoln City OR (Law) North American Carbon Program (2017). Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregon's urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes: Impacts of bioenergy from additional forest harvest and conversion of non-food crops to poplar (Law). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The project has ended and our publication in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences was the capstone paper. We are in the publication process on one paper (Kwon et al.) and hope to have it accepted for publication in the next few months after the project termination.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: We maintained and processed data for our existing young and mature ponderosa pine sites through the length of the study, and maintained our Douglas-fir site until it was clearcut. We established temporary flux sites in the major valley crops of wheat and grass seed in summer of 2014, and in a poplar planation on a Biocycle Farm in the Willamette Valley. The wheat, grass and poplar sites ran from 2014 to 2017. The poplar site is managed as an agricultural crop. Trees were about 14 years of age and 16m tall, and corresponding aboveground biomass at harvest usually ranges from 6 to 20 tonnes per hectare (BDT). Analysis of flux data and ancillary data showed that young forests were more sensitive to drought than mature forests. We investigated the hydrologic effects of drought across forest types, climate zones and age classes using tower flux data from our sites across Oregon. We used transpiration-based water-use efficiency (iWUE) as an indicator of drought stress and found that in the dry summers, young pine suffered more (high iWUE), following by mature ponderosa pine and then Douglas-fir (32%, 11 and 6% increase in iWUE, respectively). This reflects the morphological and physiological factors that temper the response to drought, (e.g. young pines of limited rooting depth to reach deep soil water, and they have low stem water capacitance). Soil water holding capacity was also lowest at the pine sites (Kwon et al. 2018). In the extremely hot dry summer of 2015, photosynthesis and net carbon uptake declined by 35 to 65% in wet and dry forests, and increased in sagebrush in the Great Basin because of intense rain prior to the hot dry conditions (Kwon et al. in revision). Objective 2: Oregon's forests have high carbon densities that are among the highest in the world. Harvest has been the major source of emissions from these forests rather than wildfire, contrary to common perceptions (Law et al. 2018). Oregon's net wood product emissions were 3.7-fold wildfire emissions in the 2001-2005 period that included a record fire year. In 2011-2015, net wood product emissions were almost 10-fold wildfire emissions. Our analysis methods that use inventories, ancillary observations, and satellite data provide robust estimates of carbon stocks and net carbon uptake, fire emissions, and net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB, which is net carbon uptake minus harvest removals and fire emissions). These methods are appropriate for regional assessments to estimate the forest carbon sink and contributions to carbon dioxide emissions.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Law, B.E., T. Hudiburg, L. Berner, A. Schmidt, H. Kwon, P. Buotte, C. Hanson, W. Moore. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes: Impacts of bioenergy from additional forest harvest and conversion of non-food crops to poplar. US Department of Energy Terrestrial Ecosystem Science, Apr 24, 2017, Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Law, B.E., C. Still, T. Hudiburg, P. Buotte. Advances in Estimating Current and Future Effects of Climate and Management on Forest Ecosystem Carbon and Water Dynamics at Multiple Scales. American Geophysical Union. Dec 11-15, 2017. New Orleans, LA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Law, B.E. Western Forest Carbon Conference. Sept 12, 2017. Seattle, WA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2018 Citation: Law, B.E. Oregons forest carbon and potential for increasing carbon sequestration and reducing emissions. Oregon Legislative Coastal Caucus Summit, Lincoln City, OR.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kwon, H., W. Creason, B.E. Law, C.J. Still, C. Hanson. Influence of concurrence of extreme drought and heat events on carbon and energy fluxes in dominant ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest US region. Biogeosciences, revised.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Law, B.E., T.W. Hudiburg, L.T. Berner, J.J. Kent, P.C. Buotte, and M. Harmon. 2018. Land use strategies to mitigate climate change in carbon dense temperate forests. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 115(14):3663-3668. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1720064115
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kwon, H., B.E. Law, C.K. Thomas, B.J. Johnson. 2018. The influence of hydrological variability on water use efficiency in forests of contrasting composition, age, and precipitation regimes in the Pacific Northwest U.S. Agric. For. Meteorol. 249:488-500.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Anderegg, D.L., L.T. Berner, G. Badgley, M.L. Sethi, B.E. Law, J. HilleRisLambers. 2018. Within-species patterns challenge our understanding of the Leaf Economics Spectrum. Ecology Letters 21:734-744. doi: 10.1111/ele.12945.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Berner, L.T., B.E. Law, T.W. Hudiburg. 2017. Water availability limits tree productivity, carbon stocks, and carbon residence time in mature forests across the western United States. Biogeosciences 14:365378, doi: 10.5194/bg-2016-419.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmidt, A., B.E. Law, M. G�ckede, C. Hanson, Z. Yang, S. Conley. 2016. Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon. Earth Interactions, 2016, DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-16-0011.1.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Berner, L.T., and B.E. Law. 2016. Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999-2014. Nature Scientific Data 3:160002, doi: 10.1038/sdata.2016.2.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E., R.H. Waring. 2015. Carbon implications of current and future effects of drought, fire and management on Pacific Northwest forests. Forest Ecology and Management 355:4-14, dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2014.11.023.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Law, B.E. 2014. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions. Global Change Biology 20:3595-3599, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12651.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Law, B.E. Drought-related impacts on forests of the Pacific Northwest US. Harvard University Plant Biology Initiative. May 5-6, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Law, B.E. Assessing land management change effects on forest carbon and emissions under climate change. American Geophysical Union. Dec. 15-19, 2014. San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schmidt, A., B.E. Law, C. Still, T. Hilker. 2015. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes - A NACP Core Project, 5th NACP Principal Investigator Meeting, Jan 26 -29, 2015, Washington D.C.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E., L.T. Berner, Z. Yang, P. Ciais. Long-term observations and analysis for an integrated carbon observations system. Ecological Society of America. NEON special session. Aug 9-14, 2015. Baltimore, MD. (poster)
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E., M. Jones, L. Berner, Z. Yang. Forest Management Shifts in the Western US and Potential Impacts on the Carbon Balance. American Geophysical Union. Dec. 14-18, 2015. San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E. Drought and fire impacts on forests. Association of Oregon Counties. Nov 17, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmidt, A., L. Berner, B.E. Law, C. Still. Changing carbon cycle dynamics in Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes in a bioenergy land-use change scenario. American Geophysical Union, Dec. 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Law, B.E. Drought, fire and management in forests. Facing the future. Dec 7, 2016. Carnegie Institution of Science, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Law, B.E. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes. USDA AFRI Project Managers Meeting after AGU. Dec 12, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Law, B.E., T. Hudiburg, L. Berner, A. Schmidt, H. Kwon, P. Buotte, C. Hanson, W. Moore. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes: Impacts of bioenergy from additional forest harvest and conversion of non-food crops to poplar. North American Carbon Program, Mar 14, 2017, Washington DC.


Progress 08/01/16 to 07/31/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The project engaged the following target audiences this year by various means: NIFA project directors at Project Manager's meeting; Agency Program Managers in the IWG of the North American Carbon Program; Research scientists and students in the following fields: Geophysics, Forestry, Biology. Changes/Problems:We had delays due to staff changes and a large time gap while waiting for approval of our proposal to use NCAR's supercomputer for our analyses. We requested a no cost extension to complete project objectives which will be reported in our planned publications. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Our PhD student learned about communicating science to policy-makers through the process of contributing data to the report to the Oregon legislature. He had a NASA fellowship, but produced the fire emissions results in our report for the Oregon Global Warming Commission. The results of our project were used to teach graduate students in Dr. Law's class titled, Global Change Ecology. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of this project were disseminated to the Oregon Global Warming Commission and Oregon's legislature, and reported in the press. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will use our observations and methods development to complete our analyses for the objectives and produce the two publications mentioned in this report. One is on land use change from non-forage grass to poplar for biomass to supplement that needed to sustain a converted 518 MW energy facility. The other is on current and future effects of climate and management on Oregon's forest carbon stocks and fluxes and the feasibility of sustainable bioenergy production while ensuring sustainability and resilience of Oregon's forests. The second paper is a comprehensive analysis that meets the project objectives.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Our project analyses of Oregon's forest sector carbon stocks and fluxes were used in a report to Oregon's policy-makers (Law et al. 2017) on the status of greenhouse gas emissions in the state, and publicized in Oregon news. We found that the land-based carbon sink (net ecosystem carbon balance, NECB) of Oregon averaged 17.02 ± 9.17 Tg C yr-1 (2001-2005) and 18.81 ± 9.13 (2011-2015), thus it increased slightly from 2001 to 2015, in spite of record wildfires in 2002-2003. Average annual fire emissions in 2001-2005 were three times that of 2011-2015 (2.37 vs 0.97 Tg C yr-1, respectively. Harvest removals had the largest impact on the forest carbon sequestration, reducing forest NECB by an average of 8.58 to 8.61 ± 0.6 Tg C yr-1 in 2001-2005 and 2011-2015, respectively. Net carbon emissions to the atmosphere from the forest sector account for changes on the land (NECB) and emissions associated with harvest and manufacturing processes and transportation. The Life Cycle Assessment used in Hudiburg et al. (2013) has been updated and will be detailed in Hudiburg et al. (in prep). The forest sector was a carbon sink, so net emissions to the atmosphere were negative (approximately -2 Tg C annually). This is an initial estimate, prior to final calculations in the publication.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Berner, L.T., B.E. Law, T.W. Hudiburg. 2017. Water availability limits tree productivity, carbon stocks, and carbon residence time in mature forests across the western United States. Biogeosciences 14:365378, doi: 10.5194/bg-2016-419.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmidt, A., B.E. Law, M. G�ckede, C. Hanson, Z. Yang, S. Conley. 2016. Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon. Earth Interactions, 2016, DOI: 10.1175/EI-D-16-0011.1.
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Law, B.E. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes. USDA AFRI Project Managers' Meeting. Dec 12, 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Law, B.E., T. Hudiburg, L. Berner, A. Schmidt, H. Kwon, P. Buotte, C. Hanson, W. Moore. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes: Impacts of bioenergy from additional forest harvest and conversion of non-food crops to poplar. North American Carbon Program, Mar 14, 2017, Washington DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Law, B.E., T. Hudiburg, L. Berner, A. Schmidt, H. Kwon, P. Buotte, C. Hanson, W. Moore. Carbon cycle dynamics within Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes: Impacts of bioenergy from additional forest harvest and conversion of non-food crops to poplar. US Department of Energy Terrestrial Ecosystem Science, Apr 24, 2017, Washington, DC.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmidt, A., L. Berner, B.E. Law, C. Still. Changing carbon cycle dynamics in Oregons urban-suburban-forested-agricultural landscapes in a bioenergy land-use change scenario. American Geophysical Union, Dec. 12-16, 2016, San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Invited seminar: Law, B.E. Drought, fire and management in forests. Facing the future. Dec 7, 2016. Carnegie Institution of Science, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.


Progress 08/01/15 to 07/31/16

Outputs
Target Audience:The project engaged the following target audiences this year by various means: NIFA project directors; Agency Program Managers in the IWG of the North American Carbon Program; Research scientists and students in the following fields: Geophysics, Forestry, Biology; land management decision-makers. Changes/Problems:Our post-doc, Andres Schmidt was promoted to Assistant Professor, Senior Research. He is responsible for completing the analysis and leading publications for this project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Conferences and training. The project provided a number of opportunities for training and professional development. Most notably, staff presented at the following conferences: Ecological Society of America, NEON special session on integration of data, 2015 (Law) American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, 2015 (Law) ICOS Sweden, 2015 (Law) Harvard University, 2015 (Law) Association of Oregon Counties, 2015 (Law) How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been communicated to the communities of interest via publications and conferences, and invited presentations to policy makers, and businesses and banks involved in COP21. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In the next year, major goals include: Continued measurements and data analysis at all sites to improve data inputs to modeling; publish results of flux, inventory and biological data for observation-based estimates of the state-level terrestrial net ecosystem carbon balance, comparing the contributions of the current land cover type; publish neural network analysis of the different observations to determine how contemporary climate, land-use and land cover influence carbon, water, and energy exchange within ecoregions and at regional scales.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Combining observations from satellites, aircraft, flux sites and CO2 tower observations with our inverse modeling showed that CLM4.5, parameterized by general species groups instead of standard PFTs, underestimated NEE in the highly productive western Douglas fir forests by more than 50% (Schmidt et al. in review). Further diagnosis suggests the soils data inputs do not capture the high nitrogen and soil water holding capacity of the highly productive forests in the Coast Range. It could also be related to the physiological parameters chosen for the dominant tree species in the region. We will continue to find ways to improve the soils data layer input to CLM4.5, and use the latest developments in the model regarding mortality and physiological parameters for more species and crop types.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Berner, L.T., and B.E. Law. 2016. Plant traits, productivity, biomass and soil properties from forest sites in the Pacific Northwest, 1999-2014. Nature Scientific Data 3:160002, doi: 10.1038/sdata.2016.2.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmidt, A., Law, B.E., G�ckede, M., Hanson, C., Yang, Z., Conley, S. Bayesian optimization of the Community Land Model simulated biosphere-atmosphere exchange using CO2 observations from a dense tower network and aircraft campaigns over Oregon. Earth Interactions (in review).
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E., L.T. Berner, Z. Yang, P. Ciais. Long-term observations and analysis for an integrated carbon observations system. Ecological Society of America. NEON special session. Aug 9-14, 2015. Baltimore, MD.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E., M. Jones, L. Berner, Z. Yang. Forest Management Shifts in the Western US and Potential Impacts on the Carbon Balance. American Geophysical Union. Dec. 14-18, 2015. San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E. Drought and fire impacts on forests. Association of Oregon Counties. Nov 17, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: 4. Law, B.E. Drought-related impacts on forests of the Pacific Northwest US. Harvard University two-day Plant Biology Symposium, titled, From Leaves to Ecosystems: Plants in a Changing World. May 5-6, 2015. (10 invitees from around the world)


Progress 08/01/14 to 07/31/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The project engaged the following target audiences this year by various means: NIFA project directors; Agency Program Managers in the IWG of the North American Carbon Program; Research scientists and students in the following fields: Geophysics, Forestry, Biology. Changes/Problems:We encountered a problem with continuity of observations at the wheat site and lost several months of data. The faulty power problem was repaired and the more recent months we provide continious measurement datasets. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Conferences and training. The project provided a number of opportunities for training and professional development. Most notably, many on the project staff presented at the following conferences: North American Carbon Program PI Meeting, 2015 Community Ecosystem Model (CESM) annual workshop, 2014 American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, 2014 Europe's Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) Science Conference, 2014 How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been communicated to the communities of interest via publications and conferences listed above. For example, an invited synthesis of research on west coast forests and the effects of climate and management was written as part of a special issue in Forest Ecology & Management (Law & Waring 2014). A paper on a future research needs for land surface modeling was published in 2014 (Law, Global Change Biology 2014). Both papers included recommendations for future research related to this project. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In order to continue to make progress on these goals, project staff will analyze data from the research sites to produce model input datasets and model testing datasets. The project will continue integration of the observations and model components of the project (Parts 1 and 2). In the next year, major goals include: Continued measurements and data analysis at all sites, incorporation of observations from satellites (OCO2, land cover types) with tall tower data in the inverse modeling part of the project, and added focus on objective 2 to determine how current climate, land-use and land cover influence carbon, water, and energy exchange within ecoregions and the whole study domain.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective (1): Compare the effects of land use on carbon, water and energy exchange and local climate among flux sites within the same climate zone and among the mesic and semi-arid regions of Oregon. In the Willamette Valley, the dominant land cover classes are agriculture (45%), Douglas-fir forests and relic oak woodlands (34%), and developed/urban (13%). The major agricultural crops are wheat (360,000 ha, NASS 2014), alfalfa hay (155,000 ha) and grass seed production (145,000 ha). We completed establishment of flux sites in the major valley crops of wheat and grass seed in summer of 2014, and in a poplar planation on a Biocycle Farm in the Willamette Valley. The poplar site is managed as an agricultural crop. Trees are about 14 years of age and 16m tall, and corresponding aboveground biomass at harvest usually ranges from 6 to 20 tonnes per hectare (BDT). Sapflux sensors were installed in the poplar trees by May 2015 to monitor changes in transpiration seasonally and across years. An initial greenhouse gas budget for 2014 estimates fossil fuel emissions of 36 Tg CO2 yr-1 (ODOE 2015). After accounting for harvest losses from forests (25; DOF 2014) and cropland (8; NASS 2014, computations following West 2005, Hudiburg et al. 2013) and forest fire emissions (14.8), the net ecosystem carbon balances (NECB) of forestland and cropland are estimated to be 7 and 4.5 Tg CO2 yr-1. Thus, our initial rough estimate is that the land-based NECB is about 32% of the equivalent of state's fossil fuel emissions. In the winter wheat crop, biomass at the end of the first growing season was 567 g C m-2 yr-1, with 349 of that in grain and 218 g C m-2 yr-1 in wheat straw that could be used as biofuel, as in other areas of the WV. The 567 g C m-2 was close to the state average biomass harvested (546) in 2014. Annual NEP of the wheat crop is expected to be modest (e.g. ~170 g C m-2 yr-1; Turner et al. 2007) compared with an average of 480 g C m-2 yr-1 (range 305-694) observed in highly productive Douglas-fir nearby (Thomas et al. 2013). Two different crops/year are grown in the grass crop fields. The ratio of sensible to latent heat in the wheat crop increased from 1 to 2, and then 5 pre-senescence, post-senescence, and post-harvest, respectively. The length of time that the ratio remains high post-harvest will determine whether this change in energy partitioning will be of importance. Objective (2): Combine multi-scale observations from satellites, flux sites, inventories and tall tower greenhouse gas sites in neural networks to determine how contemporary climate, land-use and land cover influence carbon, water, and energy exchange within ecoregions and at regional scales. We have not addressed this objective yet.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Law, B.E., R.H. Waring. 2015. Carbon implications of current and future effects of drought, fire and management on Pacific Northwest forests. Forest Ecology and Management dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2014.11.023.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Law, B.E. 2014. Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions. Global Change Biology 20:3595-3599, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12651.