Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes: smallholder farmers, microfinancial institutions, insureres, and government agricultural policymakers in in developing countries; and development economics scholars and practitioners. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Presentations at professional meetings, working papers, and journal article submissions
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
We enrich the traditional cobweb model by explicitly modelling interdependencies between upstream and downstream farmers in a vertically linked agricultural value chain. Analysis of the system of nonlinear difference equations characterizing price dynamics in the underlying model reveal complex, quasi-cyclical price fluctuations around the unique equilibrium state. We show that time-delays arising from the unequal lengths of upstream and downstream production cycles have profound effects on price dynamics. From a policy perspective, we find that improvements in downstream production technology and declines in consumers' sensitivity to prices lead to chaotic price fluctuations. Simulations under reasonable model calibrations reproduce the stylized features of actual prices, including quasi-cyclical fluctuations, positive first-order autocorrelation and fat-tailed distributions.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Chaudhry, Muhammad Imran and Mario J. Miranda. 2018. Complex Price Dynamics in Vertically Linked Cobweb Markets. Economic Modelling 72(1):363-37.
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes: smallholder farmers, microfinancial institutions, insureres, and government agricultural policymakers in in developing countries; and development economics scholars and practitioners. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A team led by Francis Kemeze, conducted training of endline survey enumerators and supervisors. Project GRAs Richard Gallenstein and Khushbu Mishra helped plan the training sessions remotely from Columbus. The objective of the training session was to prepare teams of local enumerators to conduct the endline survey interviews. The training included a detailed description of the project questionnaire and role plays and English and Local Languages. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Presentations at professional meetings, working papers, and journal article submissions. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Although final analysis of data obtained from our final survey is still incomplete, preliminary findings indicate that, on the demand side, coupling loans with micro-insurance increases the likelihood of loan application for female farmers, potentially because of the payouts being directly made to them and a lack of trust in the bank. In contrast, coupling loans with meso-insurance increases the likelihood of loan application for those farmers who place the highest trust in the bank. On the supply side, coupling loans with meso-insurance increases the likelihood of loan approval, but with a larger impact for males. Overall, our results indicate that insured loans hold significant promise for expanding credit access and technology adoption among smallholder farmers.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Miranda, Mario J. Index Insurance in Africa: Problems and Prospects. Presented at the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa and the International Food Policy Research Institute, Accra, Ghana, May 19, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Dougherty, John, Jon Einar Flatnes, Richard A. Gallenstein, Mario J. Miranda, and Abdoul G. Sam. Investigating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Demand for Index Insurance. Selected presentation, Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Chicago, IL, July 29 - August 1, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Mishra, Khushbu K., Richard A. Gallenstein, Mario J. Miranda, and Abdoul G. Sam. Gender and Willingness to Pay for Insured Loans: Empirical Evidence from Ghana. Selected presentation, Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Chicago, IL, July 29 - August 1, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Mishra, Khushbu, Richard Gallenstein, Mario J. Maranda, and Abdoul G. Sam. Can Index Insurance Improve Credit Access and Technology Adoption Among Smallholder Farmers? Selected presentation, Annual Meeting of the Midwest Economics Association, March 31-April 2, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Gallenstein, Richard, Mario J. Miranda, John Dougherty, Jon Einar Flatnes, and Abdoul Sam. Impact of Social Capital on Risk Taking in Joint Liability Lending Contracts: Evidence from Theory and a Field Experiment. Selected presentation, Annual Meeting of the Midwest Economics Association, March 31-April 2, 2017.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Mishra, Khushbu, Richard Gallenstein, Abdoul G. Sam, Mario J. Miranda, Patricia Toledo, and Francis Mulangu. You are Approved! Insured Loans Improve Credit Access and Technology Adoption of Ghanaian Farmers. Under preparation for submission to World Development.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Mishra, Khushbu K. Three Essays on Gender and Development Economics: Pathways to Close Gender-Related Economic Gaps in Developing Agrarian Economies in Areas of Asset, Risk, and Credit Constraints. Graduate Program in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, June 2017.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Gallenstein, Richard A. Three Essays on the Expansion of Agricultural Credit through the use of Index Based Rainfall Insurance. Graduate Program in Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics, The Ohio State University, July 2017.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Gallenstein, Richard, Khushbu Mishra, Abdoul Sam, and Mario Miranda. Willingness to Pay for Insured Loans in Northern Ghana. May, 2017. Submitted to the Journal of Risk and Insurance.
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Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:Agricultural producers, insurers, lenders, and policymakers. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Over the next reporting period, I expect to complete a draft of a manuscript for submission to a peer-reviewed journal that reports findings obtained from the research project. The manuscript, now in working paper form. is: Miranda, Mario J. and Kathleen M. Farrin. "On the Demand for Insurance in the Presence of Borrowing Saving." Working Paper, Department of Agricultural, Environmental & Development Economics, The Ohio State University.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
With my colleague, Katie Farrin, I wrote a draft of an ERS technical bulletin and submitted MATLAB code to solve for optimal insurance, credit and savings decisions under various assumptions about insurance premiums, interest rates, and farm-level risk preferences. The most recent iteration of the code, upon which the technical bulletin is based, makes the decision model fully dynamic.
Publications
- Type:
Other
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Miranda, Mario J. and Francis Mulangu. Forthcoming, 2017. "Index Insurance for Agricultural Transformation in Africa." African Center for Economic Transformation Biennial Report.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Farrin, Kathleen and Mario J. Miranda. 2017. How do Time and Money Affect Agricultural Insurance Uptake? A New Approach to Farm Risk Management Analysis". Technical Bulletin, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for my work include researchers, farmers, and government agricultural policymakers interested in the optimal use of insurance in agricultural risk management. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Katie Farrin and Mario Miranda have submitted a second draft of an ERS Economic Research Report to branch chiefs in MTED-FSD and MTED-APM. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?While the dynamic model is fully functional as is, several offshoots are possible; future work will depend on input from the rest of the Innovative Research Grant group, and may include: Finite-horizon models with life-cycle effects. Such a model would allow for the capture of differences in behavior based on the age of the head of the farm household. Borrowing. Incorporating credit into the model will allow for an analysis of both borrowing and default. A model tailored to specific insurance provisions of the 2014 Farm Bill. Such a model will be developed with guidance from ERS researchers with expertise on the Farm Bill.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Continuing their work under the cooperative agreement to evaluate farm-level behavior and risk management, Katie Farrin and Mario Miranda have submitted drafts of deliverables to branch chiefs in MTED-FSD and MTED-APM; these drafts are of an ERS technical bulletin, as well as the underlying MATLAB code to solve for optimal insurance, credit and savings decisions under various assumptions about insurance premiums, interest rates, and farm-level risk preferences. The most recent iteration of the code, upon which the technical bulletin is based, makes the decision model fully dynamic (as opposed to a two-period model). While ARMS data with more specific questions on insurance is still unavailable, a natural next step once the data are available will be to work with Erik O'Donoghue on an econometric analysis of ARMS data to examine how production decisions interact with insurance decisions. The dynamic model can be further tailored to capture specific features of various farm policy options, farm characteristics and weather risk profiles - including those of developing economies. For example, a second ERS product under review ("The State of Index Insurance and Agricultural Risk Management in the Developing World," submitted by Katie Farrin to MTED-FSD) uses a variant of the model as part of a quantitative and qualitative analysis on risk management and food security among smallholder farmers in low-income countries.
Publications
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