Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to NRP
SMALL FARMERS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD: PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN A CONTEXT OF INPUT AND OUTPUT MARKET FAILURES
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1002964
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jun 1, 2014
Project End Date
May 31, 2019
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
Agricultural & Consumer Economics
Non Technical Summary
This project will study the economic impacts of policies and interventions designed to help developing world small farmers cope with inefficiencies caused by poorly functioning input and output markets. The research will explore both the drivers and the consequences of these inefficiencies and the economic effects of public and private sector initiatives to resolve market failures. The work will also study the decisions and investments of farmers themselves.Because most of the world's poor depend directly or indirectly on farming for their livelihoods, the productivity of smallholder agriculture in the developing world is central to addressing global poverty and food security. Even so, the adoption of yield-increasing improved inputs or production practices by households in the developing world is often slow and haphazard; marked by periods of experimentation with and eventual abandonment of new technologies. One key challenge complicates both analysis and policy: households' adoption takes place within a context characterized by input and output market imperfections that can limit the ways in which farmers can benefit from combining their labor with land and other agricultural inputs.By studying the participation in and household welfare effects of development policy and food security initiatives, this research contributes to understanding the tradeoffs between alternative visions of agricultural development policy. In this way the work helps to accomplish humanitarian and foreign policy goals of the United States.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
0%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6016030301050%
6066030301050%
Knowledge Area
601 - Economics of Agricultural Production and Farm Management; 606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6030 - The farm as an enterprise;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
The research will be organized around the following three primary themes:Small farmers in the developing world selling to global supply chainsWhat are the household welfare implications of the participation of developing world small farmers in transnational supermarket and export supply chains and what are the mechanisms and effects that distinguish such new marketing relationships from spot market sales? Specific questions within this general inquiry: 1. How do smallholder farmers choose among market opportunities? 2. What investments are required for these small farmers to adopt modern supply chains? 3. How do "direct farm" relationships that cut out middlemen affect household income dynamics? 4. Do new agricultural markets benefit all small farmers, or is participation conditional on household initial endowments and experience?Small farmer participation in commodity output marketsThe majority of the world's poor depend on agriculture for their livelihoods either as farmers or agricultural laborers. The functioning of both rural commodity staple markets and input markets is therefore critical to determining the incomes and general welfare of these populations. Research around this theme will study: 1. How the functioning of rural input and output markets affects small farmer investments and decision making. 2. How farmers decide among buyers. Are there measurable relational or other benefits that accrue to contracting parties over time? 3. The role of middlemen in rural agricultural markets. 4. How farmers manage the risks associated with selling and holding staple commodity grains and the impacts of these decisions on their household incomes and welfare.Small farmer investment in soil fertilityThough improving soil fertility is not technically difficult, achieving widespread household adoption of both mineral and organic nutrient inputs has been a major challenge throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. In many interior parts of the region the high and volatile costs of mineral fertilizer mean that its use is often beyond the reach of many farmers. Organic fertilization methods such as nitrogen-fixing shrubs and trees and leguminous intercropping have been promoted as substitutes for mineral fertilizer; however, a primary challenge related to the adoption of these non-mineral fertilizers is that the labor and opportunity costs associated with their implementation are non-trivial and rarely estimated. 1. Which economically viable policies can bring about the best sustainable improvements in sub-Saharan Africa's soil fertility? 2. How do farmer technology adoption and management practices interact with agro-ecological constraints to influence household productivity? 3. Which non-industrial forms of fertilizer are appropriate technology for poor farmers with relatively high opportunity costs of land and labor? 4. What are the effects of new small farmer input subsidy policies on production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa?
Project Methods
This work will apply econometric techniques to existing household panel data and time-series market prices. It will also use field-based experimental methods such as auctions and randomized controlled trials to study how developing world households respond to market failures and inefficiencies and to estimate the welfare impacts of such household responses. Accomplishing some of the objectives may require collection of new panel and field data in the developing world. To tackle the interdisciplinary nature of these questions, the research will establish collaborations with soil scientists and ecologists allowing the incorporation of soil fertility measurements and satellite imagery into analyses of food security and household productivity.

Progress 06/01/14 to 05/31/19

Outputs
Target Audience:I presented my work to practitioners and researchers at the American Agricultural Economics Associationmeetings in Washington, DC, the Northeast Universities Development Conference at Cornell, and seminars at the World Bank, the University of Illinois, and the Interantional Institute of Tropical Agriculture in Dar es Salaam. The audiences at the conference and seminars included NGO personnel, World Bank researchers, USAID and USDA employees, university researchers, and students. My research was also covered in several online blogs and publications. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I have been working closely with both an undergraduate and a graduate student to work on research on mineral fertilizer quality. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I participated in organizing a large workshop in Malawi that included policymakers, NGO staff, and researchers about farming and integrated soil fertility management practices and shared the results from a multi-year study. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Twomanuscripts were published in 2018-19 and four manuscripts were submitted for publication. Presentations of early results and writing grant applications to support related work including presentation of research by myself and co-authors at several peer-reviewed, selective conferences and workshops. Continued work on a new project studying new aspects of mineral fertilizer quality in Tanzania; this work has three components including a regional-level randomized control trial of fertilizer test quality information, a student project focusing on ambiguity and risk aversion, and a new machine learning based tool to detect adulteration.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2019 Citation: H. Michelson, L. Phadera and A. Winter-Nelson 2018. Do Asset Transfers Build Household Development Resilience? Journal of Development Economics. Volume 138, pages 205-227.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2019 Citation: E. Lentz, H. Michelson and K. Baylis. 2019. A Data-Driven Approach Improves Food Insecurity Crisis Prediction. Forthcoming, World Development.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2019 Citation: H. Michelson, B. Norton, S. Krishnaiah, S. Ghosh, S. Xu and E. Wang. 2019. Fertilizer Adulteration Detection Using a Deep Learning Image Classifier.


Progress 10/01/17 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:I presented my work to practitioners and researchers at the AAAE meetings in Washington, DC, the Northeast Universities Development Conference at Cornell, and seminars at the University of Illinois . The audience at the conference and seminars included NGO personnel, World Bank researchers, USAID and USDA employees, university researchers, and students.My research was also covered in several online blogs and publications. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Ongoing research and preparing manuscripts for publication and presentations at conferences.I am also working on dissemination efforts for projects. I have a student working with me on policy work for a large Malawi project that is concluding. I will be co-organizing a workshop in Malawi in May to disseminate project results from the 3IE project.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Three manuscripts were published in 2018and five manuscripts were submitted for publication. Progress continues towards additional new manuscripts for submission in early 2019. Presentations of early results and writing grant applications to support related work including presentation of research by myself and co-authors at several peer-reviewed, selective conferences and workshops. Began work on a new project studying new aspects of mineral fertilizer quality in Tanzania

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: H. Michelson, L. Phadera and A. Winter-Nelson 2018. Do Asset Transfers Build Household Develop ment Resilience? (Under Review).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: K. Kafle, H. Michelson and A. Winter-Nelson 2018. His, hers, or ours: Impacts of a training and asset transfer programme on intra-household decision-making in Zambia. The Journal of Development Studies, 19.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: A. Ham and H. Michelson. 2018. Does exposure to demand or supply-side incentives in conditional cash transfer programs matter in the long-run? Journal of Development Economics, 134, 96108.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: H. Michelson, A. Fairbairn, A. Maertens, B. Ellison and V. Manyong. 2018. Misperceived quality: Fertilizer in Tanzania. Journal of Development Economics (Under Review).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2018 Citation: E. Lentz, H. Michelson and K. Baylis. 2018. A prototype for predicting food insecurity using secondary Data. World Development (Under Review).


Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:I presented my work to practitioners and researchers at the AAAE meetings in Chicago, the World Bank Annual Bank Conference on Africa in Berkeley, CA, the annual CSAE conference on Development in Africa held in Oxford, England,and seminars at the University of Illinois and Purdue University. The audience at the conference and seminars included NGO personnel, World Bank researchers, USAID and USDA employees, university researchers, and students. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Workshop was held in Tanzania to disseminate results of the soil information RCT funded by USAID. It was attended by government officials from Tanzania as well as Tanzanian academics and NGO staff. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?I led the authorship ofa policy report for USAID BASIS explaining initial project results for the Tanzanian soildoc project. Results of Malawi project on ISFM were presented to funding agency (International Institute for Impact Evaluation - 3IE) in New Delhi. Website for the Malawi project is active and conveys project activities and ongoing analysis. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Ongoing research and preparing manuscripts for publication and presentations at conferences.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Two manuscripts were submitted in 2017and four manuscripts were accepted for publication in 2017. Progress continues towards additional new manuscripts for submission in early 2018. Presentations of early results and writing grant applications to support related work including presentation of research by myself and co-authors at several peer-reviewd, selective conferences and workshops. Workshop was held in Tanzania to disseminate results of the soil information RCT funded by USAID. In addition, led the authorship ofa policy report for USAID BASIS explaining initial project results. Available at: https://basis.ucdavis.edu/publication/policy-brief-targeted-soil-recommendations-may-improve-smallholder-yields-tanzania. Received $53,000 in funding from campus and off-campus sources to support additional research into mineral fertilizer quality in Tanzania.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: H. Michelson, X. Chang, S. Boucher, J. Bai, X. Jia and J. Huang. 2017. Connecting Supermarkets and Farms: The Role of Intermediaries in Walmart Chinas Fresh Produce Supply Chains. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 113.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: H. Michelson. 2017. Effects of Neighbor Experience and Exit on Small Farmer Market Participation in Nicaragua. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 99(4), 952-970.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: H. Michelson. 2017. Variable Soils, Variable Fertilizer Quality, and Variable Prospects. Accepted 05/2017, Tropical Conservation Science, 10.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: H. Michelson and K. Tully. 2018. The Millennium Villages Project and Local Land Values: Using Hedonic Pricing Methods to Evaluate Development Projects. World Development, 101, 377-387.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: K. Kafle, H. Michelson and A. Winter-Nelson. 2017. Does she have a say? The Impact of Livestock Transfer and Associated Training on Womens Empowerment: Evidence from Zambia. In revision for resubmission, Journal of Development Studies.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: P. Goldsmith, H. Michelson, L. Phadera and A. Winter-Nelson. 2017. Do Asset Transfers Build Household Development Resilience? In review, Journal of Development Economics.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Fairbairn, A. 2017. Are They Lemons? Unobservable Quality, Information, and Mineral Fertilizer Demand. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.


Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:I presented my work to practitioners and researchers at the AAAE meetings in Boston and seminars at the University of Illinois and the University of Wisconsin. I also disseminated my research through the Chicago Council on Global Affairs as a written policy brief and in a presentation in Chicago. The audience at the conference and seminars included NGO personnel, USAID and USDA employees, university researchers, and students. The audience for the Chicago Council was broader; the report was sent out to policy makers, researchers, and practitioners over the Council's extensive network. I also presentedto the Council's young entrepreneurs group - young researchers and business people in Chicago. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Training of M.S. student whose thesis I have mentored and supported during this period. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Policy briefs are being drafted for the Tanzania project. Policy briefs have been disseminated for Malawi research. We have also drafted and published blog posts. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Ongoing research and preparing manuscripts for publication and presentations at conferences.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Two manuscripts were submitted in 2016 and accepted for publication in 2017. Progress continues towards additional new manuscripts for submission in early 2017. Presentations of early results and writing grant applications to support related work. Received with a graduate student $80,000 in funding from campus and off-campus sources to support research into mineral fertilizer quality in Tanzania.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: T. Songsermsawas, K. Baylis, A. Chhatre and H. Michelson. 2016. Can Peers Improve Agricultural Revenue? World Development, 83, 163178.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: H. Michelson. 2016. Small Farmers, Big Retailers: Are New Sourcing Strategies a Path to Inclusion? The Chicago Council on Global Affairs Research Brief.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: H. Michelson and K. Tully. 2016. The Millennium Villages Project and Local Land Values: Using Hedonic Pricing Methods to Evaluate Development Projects.


Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:I presented my work to practitioners at a conference at the University of Illinois. The audience included NGO and USAID staff as well as other academics. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Through presentations on campus with practitioners. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?I will submit manuscripts for publication and present results at conferences.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Progress towards manuscripts for submission in early 2016. Presentations of early results and writing grant applications to support related work.

Publications


    Progress 06/01/14 to 09/30/14

    Outputs
    Target Audience: Work during this reporting period (June 30-September 1) consisted of data preparation and analysis. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? During this period I worked on processing and analyzing the DHS data. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? During the next reporting period, I plan to present the results in seminars and draft a journal article for publication.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? Under Theme 3 - Small Farmer Investment in Soil Fertility, we joined and analyzed Demographic and Health Services (DHS) data for Malawi and Mozambique to assess the effect of Malawi's fertilizer subsidy program on child health outcomes. This analysis is ongoing.

    Publications