ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FROM A CHANGING NORTHERN FOREST

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: MCINTIRE-STENNIS
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1002893
• Project Start Date: Jan 1, 2015
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2017
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF VERMONT
(N/A)
BURLINGTON,VT 05405

Performing Department
School Of Natural Resources

Non Technical Summary
Non-technical SummaryNature benefits people in countless ways; wetlands regulate floods, woodlands store carbon, bees pollinate crops, etc. In New England, these benefits (or "ecosystem services") are typically produced by the distinctive working landscapes of the region, where forests, streams, agricultural lands, and other habitats intermingle. To manage these landscapes sustainably, we need to understand how they provide both habitats for native species and ecosystem services to people.I propose to work closely with a post-doctoral researcher to (i) estimate the ecological importance of several ecosystem services, (ii) quantify their value to people in Vermont, and (iii) predict how changes to Vermont's climate and land use will affect them. We will combine a range of methods, including field sampling, spatial modeling, and economic valuation. Our project will result in changes in both knowledge and action. With a better understanding of how the flow of ecosystem services is likely to change under future climate (knowledge), state agencies and land trusts will be able to manage Vermont's iconic forested landscapes more effectively for the long term (action).

Animal Health Component

60%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

25%

Applied

60%

Developmental

15%

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
131	0120	3100	25%
136	0120	1070	25%
136	0120	3010	25%
605	0320	3100	10%
211	0430	1070	15%

Knowledge Area
211 - Insects, Mites, and Other Arthropods Affecting Plants; 136 - Conservation of Biological Diversity; 605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics; 131 - Alternative Uses of Land;

Subject Of Investigation
0120 - Land; 0320 - Watersheds; 0430 - Climate;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology; 3010 - Economics; 3100 - Management;

Keywords

northern forests

ecosystem services

climate change

spatial modeling

economics

ecology

valuation

landscape

social ecological systems

Goals / Objectives
Goals and ObjectivesThe overall goal of this project is to inform the management of forested working landscapes by evaluating the ecosystem services they produce and how these services are shifting in response to interacting changes in land use and climate.The forested regions of New England are characterized by mosaic landscapes that support both biodiversity and people. The interactions among forests, farms, wetlands, urban areas, and other landscape elements determine the viability of many species in the region (e.g., Perlut et al. 2006, Smith et al. 2008). These same interactions determine the flow of ecosystem services from landscapes to local and regional communities and economies (Ricketts et al. 2006, Nelson et al. 2009). Understanding these interactions and their effects on the flow of benefits to people is critical to managing forested regions sustainably, in Vermont, New England, and across the United States.The Rubenstein School, and the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics in particular, have begun to assemble a collaborative team to address these issues. For example, a PhD student in Dr. Ricketts' lab is studying crop pollination services, focused on a single crop at a local, field scale. Another PhD student is developing a broad-scale project to map multiple ecosystem services across the state of Vermont, using simple coarse models. A group of Rubenstein School faculty are beginning linked projects on urban tree canopies, carbon dynamics in forests, and invasive species - all in relation to the delivery of ecosystem services.I propose to supervise a post-doctoral researcher to complement this mix of ongoing work. I will recruit an interdisciplinary scientist to focus on modeling land use and climate change, and to use those models to estimate how ecosystem services have changed over time, and how they are likely to change given expected changes in land use and climate in Vermont. This focus on past and future change will complement and strengthen the projects ongoing in our research group, building depth and sophistication into analyses that currently focus on present-day patterns and value.Given the expertise in our research group, as well as the interest among stakeholders in Vermont, we will focus these change analyses on a mix of four ecosystem services: food provision, recreation/tourism, pest control, and carbon sequestration. These benefits from nature are of clear political interest in the region. Some are relatively under-studied at UVM and therefore would complement the set already being investigated. Others are the topic of ongoing work, but would benefit immensely from the addition of rigorous modeling of land use and climate change.The specific objectives for this post-doctoral project are as follows.Estimate the ecological importance of forest-related ecosystem service across Vermont.Quantify the contributions to human well-being provided by these services - measured as economic value, improved health outcomes, etc.Predict how likely changes in climate and land use will change the contributions of these services to human well-being, and for whom.

Project Methods
MethodsSpecific methods will vary among the four ecosystem services, but the project will comprise four major methodological steps.Field experiments or observations within forest mosaic landscapes, capturing representative gradients to understand the ecological dynamics of the services.Statistical or dynamic modeling to generalize from field measurements and predict ecosystem services over broader scales.Valuation to estimate benefits to human well-being. These benefits could include monetary values, cultural values, or contributions to human health, as appropriate.Update models from step #2 with data on future climate and land use, to predict likely changes in the overall flow of the service and the distribution of benefits.In step 1, we will use appropriate field techniques for the taxa and ecological dynamics involved in each service. This may involve field sampling of key species or diversity levels, changes in crop or ecosystem productivity, or visitation to recreational sites. We will use new field observations to complement existing datasets compiled from Vermont agencies or research programs.In step 2, we will work to develop mathematical functions that relate the ecological production of the service to relevant drivers across the forested landscape. This is an approach taken by the Natural Capital Project (Kareiva et al. 2011) and other research groups to generalize from field studies and estimate service delivery across broader regions. These functions will include climate drivers such as temperature and precipitation, to allow climate change analyses in step 4.In step 3, we will relate the ecological production of the service to tangible changes in human well-being. For some services (e.g., pest control) this would involve economic valuation based on changes in crop production. For others (e.g., recreation), it may be measured in cultural value or mental or physical health outcomes.In step 4, we will generate models of land use change, using historical trends and data, along with likely future scenarios of change. We will also take advantage of newly-available climate datasets from UVM's EPSCOR program, which are downscaled from global circulation models to resolutions more relevant to the forested working landscapes of Vermont. Using these data we will update our models from step 2 to predict likely changes in ecosystem service production, as well as changes in the distribution of benefits among human communities, under land use and climate change. This is the step that the post-doc funded by this proposal would uniquely enable.This project represents at least two innovative contributions to the literature. First, it links original field observations with landscape-scale modeling. Most studies of ecosystem services are based either on field observations (e.g., Kremen et al. 2002) or computer models (e.g., Kareiva et al. 2011, Bagstad et al. 2013). Linking the two explicitly in the same project allows both grounded depth and broader application (Kremen and Ostfeld 2005, Fisher et al. 2011). Second, it uses models to drive production functions and estimate past and future flows of services from working landscapes to people. While an increasing number of studies contemplate land use and policy changes (Foley et al. 2005, Nelson et al. 2009), few explicitly and rigorously estimate the changes in service from climate change (Schröter et al. 2005, Mooney et al. 2009). UVM's EPSCOR project has a similar objective, but focused on water quality in the Champlain basin. Our study will leverage the climate data produced from EPSCOR to expand the services we can evaluate.

Progress 01/01/15 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:This research reached four target audiences: The first group represents government and non-governmental organizations working to conserve natural resources in Vermont. Results were shared with this group via meetings and email. Specifically, this included discussions with conservation managers from Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife and Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. The second audience represents environmental students from UVM, including undergraduates in the Rubenstein School and post-graduate students across relevant units. Research findings were shared with this group in Dr. Ricketts' regular courses (e.g. Ecosystem Services), other applied courses that aim to enhance management of Vermont's ecosystem services (e.g. Trans-disciplinary Research in the Northern Forests), and guest lectures in several other courses (e.g. Research Methods, Introduction to Ecological Economics). The third target audience represents scientists working on related issues of modeling ecosystem services in Vermont and elsewhere. To reach this audience, the project was presented at multiple conferences (e.g. American Association of Geographer's annual meeting, Global Land Project Open Science meeting, US-International Association of Landscape Ecology's annual meeting), workshops (e.g. Natural Capital workshop, RCN S3 Ecosystem Services Workshop, NSF RCN fall foliage workshop) and university seminars (e.g. Rubenstein School, Gund Institute of Environment, Gund Slam) to gain input and feedback on ideas, and to disseminate results. Research results were also published on popular academic forums (e.g. Inside Higher Ed; The Academic Minute). The fourth audience represents civil society, who are affected by conservation decisions and who value the ecosystem services studied in this project. To reach this audience, we conducted a series of radio interviews within the USA (e.g. VPR broadcast on hourly news segments) and in other countries (e.g. Australian Broadcasting Corporation, science show). The research was also featured in many popular articles (e.g. Travel and Leisure magazine, Fox News, PopSci, Forbes, Sierra Club Magazine, Biosphere). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The post-doctoral researcher received research training, teaching, and research leadership experienceand opportunities to provide informal mentoring to post-graduate students. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of this research were disseminated via radio interviews (e.g. VPR broadcast on hourly news segments; Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Science Show), stakeholder workshops, research seminars and conferences, and publication in population magazines (e.g. Travel and Leisure magazine, Fox News, PopSci, Forbes, Sierra Club Magazine, Biosphere). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This project aimed to provide the knowledge needed to sustainably manage the ecosystem services provided by Vermont's forested landscapes. We quantified the societal and economic values of one important ecosystem service--nature-based recreation--and investigated how future changes in land use and climate may affect its contribution to human wellbeing. Research objectives were met in two parts. First, we analyzed opportunities for nature-based recreation provided by conserved lands. Second, we specifically analyzed one recreational activity in Vermont: recreational moose hunting. Both analyses showed that many natural landscape attributes underpin the value of ecosystem services, and that future changes in land use may risk their contribution to human wellbeing. Our research provides the knowledge needed to enable state agencies to effectively manage Vermont's forested landscapes to secure and enhance valuable opportunities for nature-based recreation. Objective 1: Estimate the ecological importance of a specific forest-related ecosystem service across Vermont. Part 1: Opportunities for nature-based recreation Identified a focal ecosystem service: opportunities for nature-based recreation. This ecosystem service provides valuable benefits to Vermonters, is threatened by future land use and climate change, and is not currently the focus of other research at UVM. Therefore, this research complements other projects currently underway at UVM, which focus on other ecosystem services, such as crop pollination and carbon storage. Established relationships with relevant target audiences, local stakeholders and potential collaborators. This included students and scientists at UVM's Parks Studies lab and Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, and park managers at Vermont's Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. These relationships greatly improved the relevance of our research outcomes and increased opportunities to inform and influence land management policies and decision-making in Vermont. Collected data on visits to conserved lands to map the current benefits of recreational ecosystem services in Vermont. These data included visitation records from state parks, and photographs uploaded to a social media data website (Flickr) between 2005 and 2014. We related these datasets to show that Flickr data can be used to indicate visits to conserved lands in Vermont, and thus depict the number of people benefiting from forest recreation. Developed a series of statistical models to estimate the importance of the natural capital (e.g. forested land area, water bodies, threatened species) that supply recreational ecosystem services in conserved lands. We found that visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities to ski. Part 2: Recreational moose hunting Identified a specific recreational activity: moose hunting, which provides valuable benefits to two groups of people in Vermont: "Hunters", who benefit from recreational experiences and harvested moose meat; and "residents", who live and work in the towns where hunting is undertaken and thus benefit from trip expenditures. This ecosystem service is supplied by a healthy moose population and is mediated by the allocation of hunting permits. Its future provision is threatened by habitat loss and disease, while the benefits it provides to people will be affected by management strategies. Established relationships with relevant target audiences, local stakeholders and potential collaborators. This included students and scientists at UVM's Rubenstein School of Ecological Economics, and game managers at Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife. These relationships improved the relevance of our research outcomes and increase opportunities to inform and influence management policies and decision-making. Collected data on moose hunting over the past 24 years (1991-2014) These data included annual permits allocated each year per wildlife management unit, moose harvested per town, and town of residence for successful moose hunters. We related these data to show that changes in permit allocation affected both where moose were harvested and how many were harvested each year. Objective 2: Quantify the contributions to human well-being provided by this service - measured as economic value, improved health outcomes, etc. Part 1: Opportunities for nature-based recreation Quantified the monetary value of all visits to conserved lands (as indicated by photographs uploaded to Flickr; see objective 1) based on published per-trip spending. Calculated the proportion of total monetary value provided by visits to conserved lands by recreational ecosystem services using the statistical model developed in objective 1. We found that conserved lands in Vermont contributed US $99.5 million to the state's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014, of which 34.8% (US $34.6 million) was provided by the ecosystem service of forest recreation. Part 2: Recreational moose hunting Quantified how changes in moose management and harvest rates affected two types of human beneficiaries differently: hunters and residents (see Objective 1 for definitions). We found that the number of permits and their allocation affected the number of hunters who benefited from hunting, and the allocation of permits among wildlife management units in Vermont affected the number of residents who benefited. Objective 3: Predict how likely changes in climate and land use will change the contributions of this service to human well-being, and for whom. Part 1: Opportunities for nature-based recreation Reviewed the literature on recreation ecosystem services to summarize current knowledge of how land use change affects recreational ecosystem services, and develop a novel conceptual model for use in this study. This conceptual model was also applied to three other ecosystem services (flood mitigation, production of non-timber forest products, and crop pollination) to demonstrate its potential for broader application. Conducted a temporal analysis of visits to conserved lands to determine if and how changes in natural and built capital cause changes in recreational ecosystem services provided by Vermont's conserved lands. We found forest clearing negatively affected this ecosystem service, which is directly applicable to conservation decision-making in Vermont. Part 2: Recreational moose hunting Conducted a temporal analysis of permit allocation, moose harvest and human beneficiaries to demonstrate how changes in natural capital and intuitional management by Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife affect people's access to ecosystem services and thus determines who benefits from moose hunting.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter, Herrera, Barrett, Galford, Moran, Soares-Filho (in review) Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, Nature Communications.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter, Fisher, Ricketts (in review) Institutions affect who benefits from ecosystem services: a disaggregated analysis of recreational moose hunting in Vermont, USA, Ecosystem Services.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter, Gourevitch, Koh, Nicholoson, Richardson, Schwartz, Singh, Watson, Maron, Ricketts (in review) Biodiversity offsets forgo opportunities to mitigate impacts on ecosystem services, Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter, Johnson, Nicolson, Richardson, Watson, Ricketts (2017), Multi-site interactions: Understanding the offsite impacts of land use change on the supply and use of ecosytem services, Ecosystem Services 23:158-164. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.012
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sonter (2016), Quantifying impacts of landscape change on ecosystem services and human beneficiaries: A case study of moose hunting in Vermont, USA, Global Land Project Open Science Meeting. Beijing, China. October 2427.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sonter (2016), Ecosystem services & human beneficiaries: Moose hunting in Vermont, USA, Gund Institute for Ecological Economics. Burlington, VT. Nov 10.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter (2017) When, why and how do biodiversity offsets incorporate ecosystem services goals?, USInternational Association of Landscape Ecology. Baltimore, MD. April 913.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter & Galford (2017) Modelling patterns and processes of land use and land cover change with Dinamica EGO, USInternational Association of Landscape Ecology. Baltimore, MD. April 913.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter (2017) No net loss of biodiversity& but what about ecosystem services?, Gund Slam, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT. April 20.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter (2017) Nature-based recreation in Vermont: when, who and why?, NSF RCN workshop on fall foliage viewing in New England. Dartmouth University, NH. May 23.
• Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter, Watson, Wood, Ricketts (2017) Spatial and temporal dynamics and value of nature-based recreation in Vermont, estimated via social media, Report of McIntire-Stennis Impact to Congress.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Sonter (2017) Quantifying the value of nature-based recreation in Vermont, McIntire-Stennis review. University of Vermont, Burlington, VT. April 24.

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:This research reached four target audiences during the reporting period. The first group represents organizations working to conserve natural resources in Vermont. Preliminary results were shared with this group via meetings and email. Specifically, this included discussions with conservation managers from Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlifeand Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation, and with the Board of Directors of the Vermont Land Trust. The second audience represents environmental students from UVM, including undergraduates in the Rubenstein School and post-graduate students across relevant units. Research findings were shared with this group in Dr. Ricketts' regular courses (e.g. Ecosystem Services) and other applied courses that aim to enhance management of Vermont's ecosystem services (e.g. Trans-disciplinary Research in the Northern Forests). The third audience represents scientists working on related issues of modeling ecosystem services in Vermont and elsewhere. To reach this audience, the project was presented at conferences (e.g. Global Land Project Open Science Meeting), workshops (e.g. RCN S3 Ecosystem Services Workshop), university seminars (Gund Institute of Ecological Economics Seminar Series). The purpose of this was to gain input and feedback on ideas, and to disseminate preliminary results. Research results were also published on popular academic forums (e.g. Inside Higher Ed; The Academic Minute). The fourth audience represents civil society, who are affected by conservation decisions and who value the ecosystem services studies in this project. To reach this audience, weconducted a series of radio interviews within the USA (e.g. VPR broadcast on hourly news segments) and in other countries (e.g. Australian Broadcasting Corporation, science show). The research was also featured in many popular articles (e.g. Travel and Leisure magazine, Fox News, PopSci, Forbes, Sierra Club Magazine, Biosphere). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The post-doctoral researcher received research training, teaching and research leadership experience, and opportunities to provide informal mentoring to post-graduate students. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of this research were disseminated via radio interviews (e.g. VPR broadcast on hourly news segments; Australian Broadcasting Corporation, Science Show), stakeholder workshops, research seminars and conferences, and publication in population magazines (e.g. Travel and Leisure magazine, Fox News, PopSci, Forbes, Sierra Club Magazine, Biosphere). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Complete analysis of moose hunting activities in Vermont. Publish results of the moose hunting analysis in a high-impact academic journal. Communication of these resultsto stakeholders, including those who manage moose hunting in Vermont and the people who benefit from this activity.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This project aims to provide the knowledge needed to sustainably manage the ecosystem services provided by Vermont's forested landscapes. During the previous reporting period, we quantified the ecological and societal value of one important ecosystem service--forest-based recreation--and investigated how future changes in land use and climate may affect its contribution to human wellbeing. During this reporting period, we focused on one specific recreational activity--moose hunting--to evaluate how changes in institutional management of access to land affected who benefited from this ecosystem service. We found that the allocation of hunting permits determined the benefits of moose hunting for people. Objective 1: Estimate the ecological importance of a specific forest-related ecosystem service across Vermont. Choose a specific recreational activity for focus: moose hunting. This ecosystem service provides valuable benefits to two groups of people in Vermont: "Hunters" benefit from recreational experiences and harvested moose meat; and "residents" live and work in the towns where hunting is undertaken and benefit from trip expenditures. This ecosystem service is supplied by healthy moose populations and is mediated by the allocation of hunting permits. Its future provision is threatened by habitat loss and disease, while the benefits it provides to people will be affected by management strategies. To investigate these dynamics, we undertook the following: Established relationships with relevant target audiences, local stakeholders and potential collaborators. This included students and scientists at UVM's Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, and game managers at Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife. These relationships helped improve the relevance of research outcomes and increase opportunities to inform and influence management policies and decision-making. Collected data on moose hunting over the past 24 years (1991-2014). These data included annual permits allocated each year per wildlife management unit, moose harvested per town, and town of residence for successful moose hunters. We related these data to show that changes in permit allocation affected both where moose were harvested and how many were harvested each year. Objective 2: Quantify the contributions to human well-being provided by this service - measured as economic value, improved health outcomes, etc. Quantified how changes in moose management and harvest affected two types of human beneficiaries differently: Hunters and Residents (see Objective 1 for definitions). We found that the number of permits and their allocation affected the number of hunters who benefited from hunting, and the allocation of permits among wildlife management units in Vermont affected the number of residents who benefited. Objective 3: Predict how likely changes in climate and land use will change the contributions of this service to human well-being, and for whom. Conducted a temporal analysis of permit allocation, moose harvest and human beneficiaries to demonstrate how changes in natural capital and intuitional management by Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife affect people's access to ecosystem services and thus determines who benefits from moose hunting.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sonter, Watson, Wood & Ricketts (2016), Spatial and Temporal Dynamics and Value of Nature-Based Recreation, Estimated via Social Media, PLoS ONE 11(9): e0162372. DOI: 10.1371/jounal.pone.0162372
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Sonter, Tomsett, Wu, Maron (2016), Biodiversity offsetting in dynamic landscapes: Influence of regulatory context and counterfactual assumptions on achievement of no net loss, Biological Conservation 206: 314-319. DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2016.11.025
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Ricketts, Watson, Koh, Ellis, Nicholson, Posner, Richardson, Sonter (2016), Disaggregating the evidence linking biodiversity and ecosystem services, Nature Communications 13106. DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13106

Progress 01/01/15 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:This research reached three target audiences during the reporting period. The first group represents organizations working to conserve natural resources in Vermont. Preliminary results were shared with this group via meetings and email. Specifically, this included discussions with conservation managers from Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife and Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. The second audience represents environmental students from UVM, including undergraduates in the Rubenstein School and post-graduate students across relevant units. Research findings were shared with this group in Dr. Ricketts' regular courses (e.g. Ecosystem Services) and other applied courses that aim to enhance management of Vermont's ecosystem services (e.g. Trans-disciplinary Research in the Northern Forests). The third target audience represents scientists working on related issues of modeling ecosystem services in Vermont and elsewhere. To reach this audience, the project was presented at multiple conferences (e.g. American Association of Geographer's annual meeting), workshops (e.g. Natural Capital workshop) and university seminars (Rubenstein School seminar series) to gain input and feedback on ideas, and to disseminate preliminary results. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The postdoctoral research associate received research training, teaching, and leadership experience, and opportunities to provide informal mentoring to post-graduate students. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?There is one further step remaining for the recreation case study described above, which is to: Predict how visits to conserved lands would change under future scenarios of land use change, using the statistical model developed in objective 1 and future scenarios of landscape development produced by colleagues at the Gund Institute for Ecological and Harvest Forest. To complement the broad-scale assessment of forest-based recreation conducted in during reporting period, we plan to conduct a second case study on one specific recreational activity--recreational hunting. Specifically, we will: Establish relationships with potential collaborators and target audiences. This will include wildlife biologists at UVM's Rubenstein School, and habitat and hunting managers at Vermont's Department of Fish and Wildlife. Collect spatial datasets on annual moose, bear, turkey and white tail deer harvest and hunters between years 1993 and 2015. Investigate spatial and temporal trends in the supply and demand of this ecosystem service, using statistical production functions and recreational demand models (objectives 1 and 2). Predict changes in recreational hunting in response to three current trends: (1) habitat degradation and fragmentation (2) increasing access and allocation of permits to hunt, and (3) reduction in the demand for hunting by certain populations in Vermont (e.g. youth). Quantify the implications of these changes for different groups of beneficiaries in Vermont. We will also formally communicate all project results to target audiences. This will include policy briefs, media releases conference presentation, publication of papers in high-impact journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This project aims to provide the knowledge needed to sustainably manage the ecosystem services provided by Vermont's forested landscapes. We quantified the ecological and societal value of one important ecosystem service--forest-based recreation--and investigated how future changes in land use and climate may affect its contribution to human wellbeing. We found that many natural landscape attributes underpinthis valuable ecosystem service, and that future changes in land use may risktheir contribution to human wellbeing. Our research provides the knowledge needed to enable state agencies to effectively manage Vermont's workinglandscapes for forest recreation under changing future conditions. Objective 1: Estimate the ecological importance of a specific forest-related ecosystem service across Vermont. Identified a focal ecosystem service: forest-based recreation. This ecosystem service provides valuable benefits to Vermonters, is threatened by future land use and climate change, and is not currently the focus of other research at UVM. Therefore this research complements other projects currently underway at UVM, which focus on other ecosystem services, such as crop pollination and carbon storage. Established relationships with relevant target audiences, local stakeholders and potential collaborators. This included students and scientists at UVM's Parks Studies lab and Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, and park managers at Vermont's Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation. These relationships will help improve the relevance of our research outcomes and increase opportunities to inform and influence land management policies and decision-making. Collected data on visits to conserved lands to map the current benefits of recreational ecosystem services in Vermont. These data included visitation records from state parks, and photographs uploaded to a social media data website (Flickr) between 2005 and 2014. We related these datasets to show that Flickr data can be used to indicate visits to conserved lands in Vermont, and thus depict the number of people benefiting from forest recreation. Developed a series of statistical models to estimate the importance of the natural capital (e.g. forested land area, water bodies, threatened species) that supply recreational ecosystem services in conserved lands. We found that visits were higher in larger conserved lands, with less forest cover, greater trail density and more opportunities to ski. Objective 2: Quantify the contributions to human well-being provided by this service - measured as economic value, improved health outcomes, etc. Quantified the monetary value of all visits to conserved lands (as indicated by photographs uploaded to Flickr; see objective 1) based on published per-trip spending. Calculated the proportion of total monetary value provided by visits to conserved lands by recreational ecosystem services using the statistical model developed in objective 1. We found that conserved lands in Vermont contributed US $99.5 million to the state's tourism industry between 2007 and 2014, of which 34.8% (US $34.6 million) was provided by the ecosystem service of forest recreation. Objective 3: Predict how likely changes in climate and land use will change the contributions of this service to human well-being, and for whom. Reviewed the literature on recreation ecosystem services to summarize current knowledge of how land use change affects recreational ecosystem services, and developed a novel conceptual model for use in this study. This conceptual model was also applied to three other ecosystem services (flood mitigation, production of non-timber forest products, and crop pollination) to demonstrate its broader application. Conducted a temporal analysis of visits to conserved lands to determine if and how changes in natural and built capital cause changes in recreational ecosystem services provided by Vermont's conserved lands. We found forest clearing negatively affected this ecosystem service, which is a finding directly applicable to conservation decision-making in Vermont.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Sonter (2015). How does land use change impact ecosystem services & when do we fail to capture these impacts?. Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Land System Science Symposium. Chicago, USA. April 2125.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Sonter (2015). Land use change, ecosystem services, and human wellbeing: the unknown effects of multi-site interactions. Future Earth Young Scientist Networking Conference. Villa Vigoni, Italy. May 2430.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Sonter (2015). Land use change impacts ecosystem services supply and demand. Natural Capital Project Workshop. University of Vermont, Burlington, USA. August 67.