Source: VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE submitted to
EXPANDING US MARKET ACCESS IN CHINA`S EVOLVING AGRICULTURAL AND TRADE POLICY ENVIRONMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
1002853
Grant No.
2014-67023-21946
Project No.
VA-422417
Proposal No.
2013-04936
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A1641
Project Start Date
Jun 1, 2014
Project End Date
May 31, 2018
Grant Year
2014
Project Director
Marchant, M. A.
Recipient Organization
VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE
(N/A)
BLACKSBURG,VA 24061
Performing Department
Ag and Applied Economics
Non Technical Summary
More than 1 million jobs in the U.S. are reliant upon agricultural exports, including jobs in food processing, packaging, shipping, transportation and on-farm jobs and related support industries (e.g. farm machinery sales and farm services). Quantifying the impact of China's government policies on global trade flows will provide opportunities for further developing and maintaining U.S. export business in China.The overall goal of this project is to gain an understanding of China's agricultural trade policies, model these policies and promote U.S. market access to China. This project has three core areas:first, to inventory significant Chinese policies and understand their impact on U.S. market access to China; second, to enhance existing agricultural models of China by incorporating Chinese policy variables, conducting market outlook and disaggregating results to the provincial level; and third to provide U.S. stakeholders, including government agencies mandated to assist market access expansion in foreign markets, with critical information to enable them to grow U.S. agricultural exports to China.The goal/objectives for this proposed project are consistent with AFRI, namely to provide "strategies for entering into and being competitive in domestic and overseas markets." Methods include policy review, interviews with U.S. agribusiness officials operating in China to determine U.S. market access impediments, incorporation of policy instruments into existing models and innovative dissemination of results to effectively deliver critical insights to stakeholders to enhance U.S. market access abroad. Agribusiness case studies will be developed, as well as publications and presentations on marketing specific products to China; culminating with a workshop for stakeholders on the potential of expanding market access in China.
Animal Health Component
0%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
100%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
60661203010100%
Knowledge Area
606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6120 - International economy and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Keywords
Goals / Objectives
The goal of this project is to gain an understanding of China's agricultural and trade policies, model these policies and promote U.S. agribusiness market access to China. This research will provide U.S. agribusinesses and agricultural exporters with knowledge to evaluate potential risks and opportunities caused by differential agricultural and trade policies in China. U.S. policymakers and government officials can use the results of this project to assist U.S. agribusinesses to expand market access into China. To achieve the overall goal of this project, our specific objectives include the following:(1) Develop and inventory Chinese trade impeding policies to enhance understanding of their impacts on U.S. agribusiness market access in China.(2) Enhance existing agricultural sector trade models by incorporating China's trade restricting policies and conduct policy simulations using models developed and maintained at the USDA-ERS and at Nanjing Agricultural University.(3) Provide USDA and the private sector with critical information to enable market penetration and expansion in China, based on the above policy information and modeling results.
Project Methods
For objective 1, the project will develop an inventory of China's agricultural and trade distorting policies that restrict market access. We will also examine the devolution of policies from the national to the provincial level. Our focus will be on major U.S. agricultural products, e.g., soybeans and cotton. Our project team will work with collaborators from China and the USDA/FAS Beijing Office of Agriculture to assemble unpublished and Chinese-language information and data that will present a broad picture of the related agricultural and trade policies in China in recent years. At the agribusiness firm level, we seek to identify trade barriers and impediments to U.S. agricultural exports to China through interviews with U.S. agricultural importers in China to determine constraints, regulations and other impediments, as well as potential solutions.Specifically, working with our Chinese collaborators, the project team will travel to China to interview both Chinese and U.S. leaders in agribusinesses, government agencies, and universities to determine trade constraints, regulations and other impediments to U.S. agricultural exports. Identification of trade barriers, as well as potential solutions and success stories, will be used to develop a marketing guide with "hands-on" tools for marketing U.S. agricultural exports in China. For objective 2, this project will enhance existing U.S.-China trade models by introducing more spatial disaggregation on the supply side to more accurately capture China's policy instruments. To be useful to U.S. agribusiness firms and U.S. government agencies promoting agricultural trade to China, this project will provide impacts of policies for major agricultural producing provinces.The existing USDA-ERS China model was developed for conducting scenarios at the national and regional level. In the current model, the regional supply structure is unable to capture the policy implications at the provincial level, which our team will obtain. Therefore the China model will be developed in greater detail by including crop production for specific provinces which are most important for the policy scenarios we develop. This may lead to individual provinces having impacts on global trade and U.S exports to China. This research will also provide estimates and insights into the limitations and data problems for modeling consumption at the provincial level. Both rural and urban per capita consumption are developed at the national level, which will provide insight into expanding marketing conditions for imports within China.New modeling scenarios will include incorporation of such Chinese trade distorting policies as input subsidies, price support, minimum procurement prices, elimination of land taxes and additional policies. The impacts of these policies are of increasing importance to agribusiness companies in assessing import demand, as well as WTO commitments by government officials. Our research will develop policy scenarios which are more realistic and consistent with current practices by China's state and non-state traders. This information is critical for a better understanding of China's imports of agricultural commodities. We will analyze trade policies to determine the effect on U.S. market access, such as the impact of the elimination of export VAT rebates, a new grain export tax, and changes in tariff rate quotas (TRQs) and state trading policies. The China model incorporates price transmission at the national level and will be further enhanced by incorporating different price transmissions at the regional and selected provincial levels. This will be more consistent with current market conditions and will more accurately assess how farmers respond to prices and policies.For objective 3, methods will stem from the enhancement of policy models described above, allowing for numerous policy scenarios to be run, as well as dissemination of results to government officials, agribusinesses and academics. Each policy instrument used by China's government will be evaluated and quantified within the modeling framework separately and the differentiated impact of each subsidy instrument on China's agricultural sector will be compared and constructed. Products and dissemination of results are described in other sections of this project description. In summary, the in-depth quantitative analysis of China's policy instruments will provide critical information to USDA and the private sector on China's agricultural competitiveness and the dynamics of the U.S. private sector's ability to penetrate and increase its market share in China.

Progress 06/01/14 to 05/31/18

Outputs
Target Audience:This research will provide U.S. agribusinesses and agricultural exporters with knowledge to evaluate potential risks and opportunities caused by differential agricultural and trade policies in China. Project results can provide U.S. policymakers and government officials, including government agencies mandated to assist U.S. agribusiness market access expansion in foreign markets, with critical information to grow U.S. agricultural exports in China. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Publications and presentations at professional meetings provided insights into U.S. agricultural trade with China. Mentoring of graduate students occurred through thesis/dissertation writing; publications and presentations at professional meetings (see products section of annual reports). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated through professional meetings, publications, presentations and media via radio and TV interviews. Specifically, Virginia Tech media distributed a nationwide press release entitled "'Cool heads' needed to deescalate trade standoff says U.S.-China expert:" https://vtnews.vt.edu/articles/2018/04/-cool-heads--needed-to-deescalate-trade-standoff--says-u-s--chin.html#.WtJuisQnudQ.email This culminated with numerous TV and radio interviews including Reuters and a FOXNews video interview--Special Report with Bret Baier--"American farmers wary of Trump trade policies," April 17, 2018. Marchant interview starts at 1 minute 27 seconds into http://video.foxnews.com/v/5772214382001/?#sp=show-clips What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? RELEVANCE Agricultural trade represents 20% of US farmers' income & China has been the US' top agricultural export market outside of North America since 2009 with an annual sale of nearly $20 billion in 2017 (USDA-FAS, 2018). Though tremendous opportunity for agricultural trade with China exists, it comes with high risk due to China's (& the US's) evolving policies. As such, we must continue to stay abreast of China's policy changes & events that impact trade relations. RESPONSE The overall goal of this project is to gain an understanding of China's agricultural trade policies, model these policies & promote US market access to China. RESULTS This project has been extremely productive with results that include 1. Ten publications, including 2 Choices theme issues--the primary outreach publication for the Ag. & Applied Economics Association, distributed to academics, policymakers & industry leaders. The June 2018 theme issue "U.S.-China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture" is in response to the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute that highlighted agriculture. This theme recaps tariff actions, emphasizing agriculture; reviews the importance of U.S.-China agricultural trade; & introduces a series of papers that examine the potential impacts of such tariffs. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/theme-overview-uschina-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-on-agriculture The 2017 Choices theme issue "U.S. Commodity Markets Respond to Changes in China's Ag Policies"included papers that examined Chinese agricultural policies & their impact on US exports. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-commodity-markets-respond-to-changes-in-chinas-ag-policies Additional project publications include the successful completion of 1 Ph.D. dissertation (Hejazi) & 1 M.S. thesis (Zhang) & subsequent 2017 & 2018 journal articles: "China's Evolving Agricultural Support Policies" & "Upheaval in China's Imports of US Sorghum." Also, a 2015 journal article titled "Supplying China's Growing Appetite for Poultry" was published in the International Food & Agribusiness Management Review. 2. Twenty-three presentations including 2 symposia at the 2015 & 2018 International Association of Ag. Economists, which meets once every 3 years & draws a global audience. Our 2015 symposium titled "China's Evolving Agricultural Policies--Food Security vs. Market Access" included presentations by both U.S. & Chinese team members (Marchant, Hansen, Tuan, Zhong & Zhu). Our upcoming 2018 symposium is titled "Challenges & Successes by US Agricultural Exporters to China." U.S. & Chinese project team members also presented results at the 2017 International Ag. Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) meeting in Washington, DC including a symposium titled "Agricultural Trade Disputes between the U.S. & China." From DC, our Chinese collaborators (Zhong & Zhu) traveled to Virginia Tech & presented a College seminar. Their trip was highlighted in https://aaec.vt.edu/news/articles/cat-nanjing-visitors.html At the national level, team members presented results at the Ag. & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meetings each year of the life of this project. For 2015, our presentation titled "Difficulties in Determining the Future of China's Commodity Trade: Policy Issues & Grain Production" evolved into Zhang's MS thesis. In 2016, presentations included 3 papers in the "US Agribusiness Exporters to China: Challenges & Success Stories" Track Session selected for presentation & sponsored by both the AAEA China section & the Agribusiness Economics Management section. For 2017, our presentation was titled "The Impact of Diversifying China's Global Agri-Food Suppliers on US Exports." Also we presented results at both USDA-NIFA Project Directors' meetings in Boston (2016) & Chicago (2017). In 2018, our upcoming August presentation is part of the AAEA-China Section track session. For 2018, U.S. team members (Marchant, Hansen, Tuan & Somwaru) traveled to China in April where we gave an invited presentation at the 2018 China Agricultural Outlook Conference titled "Global Agricultural Trade: United States, China & Emerging Markets." From Beijing we traveled to Nanjing Ag. University, were hosted by our Chinese collaborators, & presented two seminars. 3. Seven TV, radio & media outreach results --In response to the escalating 2018 US-China trade dispute, Marchant was featured in a nationwide press release distributed by Virginia Tech culminating in - 2 TV interviews--including a FOXNews Special Report with Bret Baier--"American farmers wary of Trump trade policies," April 17, 2018. http://video.foxnews.com/v/5772214382001/?#sp=show-clips a WDBJ TV video & press release titled "Kaine says trade war with China could 'hit Virginia hard.'" April 10, 2018. - 3 radio interviews: - Reuters, Chicago, IL-"Red River Farm Network" radio-North Dakota & WFIR AM 960/FM 107.3-Roanoke, VA. - 2 citations in agricultural press: "Ag groups urge reasoned trade approach from Trump administration" & "How do agricultural economists view possible trade war?" The remainder features project results & impacts in chronological order that are not reported above: 4. Completed inventory of Chinese agricultural policy related to trade impediments. Results were reported in Hejazi's PhD dissertation & in the Hejazi & Marchant 2017 publication: "China's Evolving Agricultural Support Policies." Key findings: China's price support programs, aimed at improving food security and grower incomes, led to increased domestic prices. The resulting gap between domestic & international prices created large stockpiles. In response, China implemented target prices for cotton & soybeans & eliminated corn price supports. Self-sufficiency agricultural policies continue. 5. Conducted policy analyses using the USDA-ERS' U.S.-China trade model to assess the impact of potential trade restrictions, e.g., animal feed (sorghum). This resulted in Zhang's MS thesis & contributed to the Hansen, Marchant, Zhang & Grant 2018 publication: "Upheaval in China's Imports of U.S. Sorghum." Key findings included a review of China's recent policies on the sorghum market and imports of sorghum as a substitute for higher-priced domestic corn. Recent trade-restricting actions & reversals against imports of U.S. sorghum raise uncertainty for U.S. farmers, exporters & Chinese importers. 6. Conducted annual team meetings in Washington D.C. The team met with various international trade experts in DC: USDA-ERS, USDA-FAS & US-China Business Council. Also, D.C. team members joined VT members in attending the 2016 Virginia Governor's Conference on Agricultural Trade & presented at the 2017 IATRC conference described above. 7. In addition to our April 2018 China trip described above, Tuan & Hansen traveled to China in July 2015 to interview both Chinese & U.S. leaders in agribusinesses, government agencies, & universities to determine trade constraints as well as success stories. These trips contributed to the 2017 Hanson, Marchant, Tuan & Somwaru publication: "U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Increased Rapidly Making China the Number One Market." Choices. Quarter 2. Key findings: U.S. agricultural commodity exports to China increased rapidly after China's accession to the WTO in 2001. In 2012, China became the United States' leading agricultural export market. Exports of consumer food products are rapidly increasing. Agricultural products not affected by China's food security policies have succeeded with the fewest barriers to trade.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Marchant, M.A., and H.H. Wang. 2018. "Theme Overview: U.S.China Trade Dispute and Potential Impacts on Agriculture." Choices. Quarter 2. Available online: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/theme-overview-uschina-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-on-agriculture
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Hansen, J., M.A. Marchant, W. Zhang, and J. Grant. 2018. "Upheaval in Chinas Imports of U.S. Sorghum." Choices. Quarter 2. Available online: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/us-china-trade-dispute-and-potential-impacts-to-agriculture/upheaval-in-chinas-imports-of-us-sorghum


Progress 06/01/16 to 05/31/17

Outputs
Target Audience:This research will provide U.S. agribusinesses and agricultural exporters with knowledge to evaluate potential risks and opportunities caused by differential agricultural and trade policies in China. Project results can provide U.S. policymakers and government officials, including government agencies mandated to assist U.S. agribusiness market access expansion in foreign markets, with critical information to grow U.S. agricultural exports in China. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Presentations at professional meetings provided insights into trade with China (see products).Mentoring of graduate students occurred (see other products section). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated through professional meetings, publications and presentations. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The team will finalize the set of articles accepted for the Choices special issue on China; accepted articles include the following: "Theme Overview: U.S. Commodity Markets Respond to Changes in China's Ag Policies." "Food Security in China from a Global Perspective." "China's Evolving Agricultural Support Policies." "U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Increased Rapidly Making China the Number One Market." "The WTO Dispute on China's Agricultural Support." The team is also considering presenting results in China, at the 2018 ChinaAgricultural Outlook Conference. And finally, as China's policies continue to evolve, these changes will be incorporated into USDA-ERS' China model. Examples include new target prices for soybeans and cotton; the impact of having China's corn prices closer to international prices for both domestic production and trade, whereby the international price is still higher than domestic prices. Lastly could beincreased constraints on China's pork production due to increasing environmental constraints and the impact on trade. How much pork will China import and from who?

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In 2016-17, significant accomplishments were achieved by our China team: 1. The team presented a track session at the 2016 Agricultural and Applied Economic Association (AAEA) annual meeting. This session entitled ""U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China: Challenges and Success Stories," was sponsored by both the Agribusiness Economics and Management and the China sections of the AAEA. It included presentations by both U.S. and Chinese team members. The following papers were presented and are cited in the publication section: "China's Evolving Agricultural and Trade Policies - Impact on U.S. Exports" "Challenges and Successes by U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China" "A Case Study - Supplying China's Growing Appetite for Poultry" 2. A proposal for a special issue of Choices devoted to China, was developed and accepted. Choices is the principal outreach vehicle of AAEA. It is an online, peer-reviewed magazine published by the AAEA for readers interested in the policy and management of agriculture, the food industry, natural resources, rural communities, and the environment. - See more at: http://www.choicesmagazine.org/ 3. One graduate student (Wei Zhang) completed his Masters' thesis entitled "Simulation of Chinese Sorghum Imports from a New Perspective: U.S. and Global Impacts." It used the USDA-ERS China model to obtain results. 4. Based on new policy information obtained from high ranking government officials during our travel to China - USDA was able to improve the quality of China's long-term commodity projections, especially for corn, sorghum and the pork sector, and provide additional information to USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board on China's new policies and potential impact. The model was modified to implement these new policies, which is removal of price supports for corn and impose constraints on expanding pork production due to proposed new environmental laws. These improvements in the model allowed Wei Zhang to conduct scenarios on China imports of sorghum and US exports of sorghum to China for his thesis.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Marchant, Mary A. (2017). Theme Overview: U.S. Commodity Markets Respond to Changes in Chinas Ag Policies. Choices, 32(2): 2nd Quarter 2017, in press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Zhong, Funing and Jing Zhu. (2017). Food Security in China from a Global Perspective. Choices, 32(2): 2nd Quarter 2017, in press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Hejazi, Mina and Mary A. Marchant. (2017) Chinas Evolving Agricultural Support Policies. Choices, 32(2): 2nd Quarter 2017, in press.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Hansen, James, Mary A. Marchant, Francis Tuan, and Agapi Somwaru. (2017). U.S. Agricultural Exports to China Increased Rapidly Making China the Number One Market. Choices, 32(2): 2nd Quarter 2017, in press.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: James M. Hansen (USDA-ERS); Francis C. Tuan (World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services); Agapi L. Somwaru. (2016). Challenges and Successes by U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China in "U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China: Challenges and Success Stories" Track Session sponsored by both the AAEA China section and the Agribusiness Economics Management section. Presentation at the 2016 AAEA annual meeting. Boston MA. July 31-August 1, 2016. Retrieved from http://www.aaea.org/UserFiles/file/Post-MeetingFinalDraft.pdf
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Marchant, Mary A. and Wei Zhang (Virginia Tech). (2016). A Case Study - Supplying Chinas Growing Appetite for Poultry in "U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China: Challenges and Success Stories" Track Session sponsored by both the AAEA China section and the Agribusiness Economics Management section. Presentation at the 2016 AAEA annual meeting. Boston MA. July 31-August 1, 2016. Retrieved from http://www.aaea.org/UserFiles/file/Post-MeetingFinalDraft.pdf
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Hansen, James M. (USDA-ERS) and Mary A. Marchant (Virginia Tech). (2016). "U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China: Challenges and Success Stories," Organizers. Peer reviewed Track Session sponsored by both the AAEA China section and the Agribusiness Economics Management section. In the 2016 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting. Boston MA. Retrieved from http://www.aaea.org/UserFiles/file/Post-MeetingFinalDraft.pdf
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Mina Hejazi (Virginia Tech); Funing Zhong and Jing Zhu, (Nanjing Agricultural University). (2016). Chinas Evolving Agricultural and Trade Policies  Impact on U.S. Exports in the "U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China: Challenges and Success Stories" Track Session sponsored by both the AAEA China section and the Agribusiness Economics Management section. Presentation at the 2016 AAEA annual meeting. Boston MA. July 31-August 1, 2016. Retrieved from http://www.aaea.org/UserFiles/file/Post-MeetingFinalDraft.pdf
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Marchant, Mary. A. (2016). Expanding U.S. Market Access in China's Evolving Agricultural and Trade Policy Environment invited presentation. In USDA-NIFA AFRI Project Directors Meeting--Agricultural Economics and Rural Communities, post-conference to the 2016 AAEA annual meeting, Boston, MA. August 3, 2016.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Broadwell, Jillian (2016). "Grant helps Virginia Tech economists provide insight into Chinas evolving agricultural policies and impacts on U.S. exports" in Virginia Tech AAEC News on Departmental website. Retrieved from http://aaec.vt.edu/news/articles/China-Trade-Grant.html
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Zhang, Wei. Simulation of Chinese Sorghum Imports from a New Perspective: U.S. and Global Impacts. M.S thesis in Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Tech, May 2017.


Progress 06/01/15 to 05/31/16

Outputs
Target Audience:This research will provide U.S. agribusinesses and agricultural exporters with knowledge to evaluate potential risks and opportunities caused by differential agricultural and trade policies in China. Project results can provide U.S. policymakers and government officials, including government agencies mandated to assist U.S. agribusiness market access expansion in foreign markets, with critical information to grow U.S. agricultural exports in China. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Presentations at professional meetings provided insights into trade with China (see products). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated through professional meetings, publications and presentations. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The team will present a symposium at the 2016 Agricultural and Applied Economic Association annual meeting sponsored by both the Agribusiness Economics and Management (AEM) and the China sections. Three papers will be presented: China's Evolving Agricultural and Trade Policies - Impact on U.S. Exports Challenges and Successes by U.S. Agribusiness Exporters to China A Case Study - Supplying China's Growing Appetite for Poultry A draft manuscript of China's agricultural domestic and trade policies is being developed. In regards to the model, new policy scenarios will be run to assess the impact of relaxing barriers to trade.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? In 2015-16, members of the team travelled to China to interview agribusiness leaders, government officials and academics to determine both barriers to US-China trade and success stories. The team discovered the impact of a price wedge between China's domestic and the world price stemming from China's use of agricultural support prices. This policy has generated stockpiles and encouraged China to consider new policies such as a target price for soybeans and cotton in selected provinces. For success stories, due to high priced domestic corn, import opportunities exist for other feed sources - distillers dried grains (DDGs), sorghum and barley. Based on this new information, the China model is being improved to incorporate these new policy instruments, e.g., target price. The team presented preliminary research result at the triennial meeting of International Agricultural Economists and at the 2015 Agricultural and Applied Economic Association annual meeting (see products). The team met as a group to review our progress, attended the 2016 Virginia Governor's Conference on Agriculture Trade, and also met with other institutions to gather information in Washington D.C.: USDA--FAS and The US-China Business Council.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zhong, Funing. Chinas Trade Policies and Import Restrictions presentation at the Chinas Evolving Agricultural PoliciesFood Security vs. Market Access symposium presented at the 2015 IXXX triennial meeting of the International Assoc. of Ag. Economists (IAAE), Milan Italy, August 9-14, 2015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hansen, Jim, Mary Marchant, Francis Tuan, Funing Zhong, Zhu Jing, Wei Chen, Agapi Somwaru and Mina Hejazi. Agribusiness and Agricultural Exporters View of Chinas Policies presentation at the Chinas Evolving Agricultural PoliciesFood Security vs. Market Access symposium presented at the 2015 IXXX triennial meeting of the International Assoc. of Ag. Economists (IAAE), Milan Italy, August 9-14, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zhu, Jing, Chinas Food Security in an Open Economy  presentation at the Chinas Evolving Agricultural PoliciesFood Security vs. Market Access symposium presented at the 2015 IXXX triennial meeting of the International Assoc. of Ag. Economists (IAAE), Milan Italy, August 9-14, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gale F., J. Hansen, M. Marchant, F. Tuan, F. Zhong, W. Chen*, A. Somwaru. Difficulties in Determining the Future of Chinas Commodity Trade: Policy Issues and Grain Production. Poster presented at the 2015 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting, San Francisco, CA. July 26-28, 2015. On web at http://purl.umn.edu/205436
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Xie C., M. Marchant. Supplying Chinas Growing Appetite for Poultry, International Food and Agribusiness Management Review (IFAMR). Volume 18--Special Issue A(2015):115-136. On web: http://www.ifama.org/2015-Volume-18-A-Special-Issue
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Marchant, M., J. Hansen. Chinas Evolving Agricultural PoliciesFood Security vs. Market Access. Symposium presented at the 2015 IXXX triennial meeting of the International Assoc. of Ag. Economists (IAAE), Milan Italy, August 9-14, 2015. Proceedings distributed at conference.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Tuan, Francis. Chinas Evolving Agricultural Policies, presentation at the Chinas Evolving Agricultural PoliciesFood Security vs. Market Access symposium presented at the 2015 IXXX triennial meeting of the International Assoc. of Ag. Economists (IAAE), Milan Italy, August 9-14, 2015.


Progress 06/01/14 to 05/31/15

Outputs
Target Audience: This research will provide U.S. agribusinesses and agricultural exporters with knowledge to evaluate potential risks and opportunities caused by differential agricultural and trade policies in China. Project results can provide U.S. policymakers and government officials, including government agencies mandated to assist U.S. agribusiness market access expansion in foreign markets, with critical information to grow U.S. agricultural exports in China. Changes/Problems: Principal Investigator Marchant came down with mononucleosis; she is doing better now. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? In process through the upcoming IFAMR journal article and IAAE symposium (see above). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? The team plans to go to China this summer to conduct interviews withU.S. agribusiness leaders operating in China and Chinese government officials. Graduate students will continue to conduct an inventory of Chinese trade policies and identify trade barriers.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This project is in its first year. Three subcontracts were finalized, including one in China--Nanjing Agricultural University. IRB approval was obtained from Virginia Tech, whereby Principal Investigators completed on-line IRB training, filed numerous documents including a draft survey to be used when interviewing U.S. agribusiness leaders operating in China and Chinese government officials. The team met in Washington, D.C. to discuss an upcoming trip to China as well as our presentation of initial results at the 2015 triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists in Milan, Italy in August 2015. Additionally, one journal article was completed as part of a special issue on global poultry trade for the International Food and Agribusiness Management Review (IFAMR).

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hansen, James, Mary A. Marchant, Francis Tuan, Agapi Somwaru, Funing Zhong and Wei Chen. "Chinas Evolving Agricultural Policies - Food Security versus Market Access: Potential Trade Impeding Policies and Uncertainty to Global Agribusiness Exporters." Symposium accepted for presentation at the 2015 International Association of Agricultural Economists triennial meeting "Agriculture in an Interconnected World. . Milan, Italy, August 9-14, 2015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Xie, Chaoping and Mary A. Marchant. "China Shows Potential to Become a Larger Importer of Poultry Products. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, Volume 18, in press.