ANALYZING AND DESIGNING POLICIES FOR RENEWABLE FUELS

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: TERMINATED
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1002101
• Project No.: CA-D-ARE-2200-H
• Project Start Date: Dec 16, 2013
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2017

Project Director
Lin, C.

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, DAVIS
410 MRAK HALL
DAVIS,CA 95616-8671

Performing Department
Agricultural and Resource Economics

Non Technical Summary
Federal and state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector have been focused on making use of many alternatives to increase the use of cleaner, more renewable inputs in production in recent years while avoiding the politically infeasible option of taxation. Many of the policies currently implemented and being proposed on a national level involve some variant of a mandate with the option for flexibility by allowing firms to generate and purchase credits for over- or under-consumption of clean inputs. The two most prominent policy options currently implemented in the U.S. are the renewable fuels standard (RFS) and the California Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS). The RFS was established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and establishes fixed amounts of ethanol to be blended into the U.S. gasoline supply. For 2012, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the agency which administers the program, has required that 15.2 billion gallons of renewable fuel be blended into the U.S. gasoline supply. This represents just under 10% of projected fuel supply for the U.S. transportation sector. This amount is set to increase significantly, reaching a goal of 36 billion gallons by 2022. The LCFS, in contrast, is a mandate on the carbon emissions of output per unit of input. Thus, the fuel refining and blending industry in California is required to reduce the weighted average of their carbon emissions rate by an increasing amount, set to reach a 10% reduction in California's carbon intensity by 2020. Currently, several proponents of the LCFS are proposing a national standard to either replace or complement the RFS. The key debate between the two policies is the favoritism of the RFS to ethanol. Proponents of the LCFS favor the program due to the fact that it does not specify which fuels must be used in meeting the standard. The debate, however, does not focus on the relative efficiency of the standards, or of other possible standards. A policy is economically efficient if it maximizes the welfare, or total net benefits (which are total benefits net of total costs), to firms and consumers. Comparing the relative efficiencies of different policies, which requires comparing relative benefits and costs of different policies, becomes important to any analysis, and should be a part of the national debate. A common feature among input mandate programs is the inclusion of credit trading programs in which firms which use more of the clean input in a given year receive credits for their overproduction which they can then sell to firms which cannot meet the mandate as easily. The inclusion of credit trading programs is motivated by the literature on permit and credit trading for pollution markets. Under a credit trading scheme, firms receive credits for any pollution reduction beyond the mandated amount, which they can trade with other firms. For this project, we will develop and simulate a model to analyze the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of various policy instruments that mandate clean input use by firms, including those that allow for firms to trade credits, in order to design as efficient and cost-effective a renewable input mandate policy as possible. We will apply the model to the RFS and LCFS. Our research is significant because many policies currently implemented or being proposed at national and state levels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector involve some form of a renewable input mandate since such policies have the potential for increasing the use of cleaner, more renewable inputs in production while avoiding the politically infeasible option of taxation. It is therefore important to develop theoretical and empirical models to analyze the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of renewable input mandate policies and to design as efficient and cost-effective a renewable input mandate policy as possible. For this project we will also analyze how economic factors, strategic factors, and government policies affect the decision to invest in building new first-generation and second-generation ethanol plants using a structural econometric model of a dynamic game. Using a dynamic model is important because subsidies may have important effects on entry, production, investment and exit decisions that a static analysis would overlook. Modeling the strategic interactions of ethanol producers as a game is important because an ethanol producer's payoffs are affected by the decisions of other producers in the market. The results of our research will help determine which policies and factors can promote fuel-ethanol industry development, and will aid in the design of sustainable energy policy. Strategic interactions between ethanol producers can arise from both positive and negative externalities. For example, ethanol plants located nearby have the potential to create positive and negative externalities for potential entrants. In terms of positive externalities, such as agglomeration effects, there could be benefits for a new plant from taking advantage of the transportation or marketing infrastructure or the educated work force already developed by an existing. In terms of negative (pecuniary) externalities, plants could compete in both the output and input markets. In addition, strategic interactions resulting from market power in the input market, output market and/or credit market can affect the efficiency of policies such as the RFS and LCFS. Transportation accounts for approximately 25% of world energy demand and for more than 55% of all the oil used each year. Most of the transportation energy demand comes from the use of gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles. In addition to being a major component of energy demand, the use of gasoline- and diesel-fueled vehicles also contributes to local air pollution and global climate change, two significant environmental problems.

Animal Health Component

0%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

60%

Applied

20%

Developmental

20%

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
603	6199	3010	10%
609	6199	3010	10%
609	0410	3010	10%
133	6199	3010	10%
610	6199	3010	10%
605	6199	3010	10%
605	0410	3010	10%
605	0430	3010	10%
605	1510	3010	10%
609	0430	3010	10%

Knowledge Area
133 - Pollution Prevention and Mitigation; 610 - Domestic Policy Analysis; 609 - Economic Theory and Methods; 605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics; 603 - Market Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
6199 - Economy, general/other; 0410 - Air; 1510 - Corn; 0430 - Climate;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

renewable fuels

government policy

Goals / Objectives
The objectives of this project are: To analyze and design policies for renewable fuels. To analyze how the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) and various forms of subsidies affect ethanol investment, production, entry, and exit decisions. To develop theoretical and empirical models to analyze the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of renewable input mandate policies and to design as efficient and cost-effective a renewable input mandate policy as possible.

Project Methods
To analyze how the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) and various forms of subsidies affect ethanol investment, production, entry, and exit decisions, we will develop and estimate a structural econometric model of a dynamic game between ethanol producers. We will also develop and simulate a theoretical model to analyze the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of various policy instruments that mandate clean input use by firms, including those that allow for firms to trade credits, in order to design as efficient and cost-effective a renewable input mandate policy as possible. We will apply the model to the RFS and LCFS.

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes academics, policy-makers, business practitioners, environmental organizations. During the reporting period, we wrote a discussion paper based on our research Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; and presented our research to Resources for the Future and at the UC Carbon and Climate Neutrality Summit. We discussed our research on renewable fuel policy in book chapter we wrote for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We have presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. We have also presented our research to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; and at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunities for training and professional development for my Ph.D. student, Gabriel Lade, with whom I have worked on this research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a book on Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics; and a Resources for the Future discussion paper. During the reporting period, we also presented our research Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; and at the UC Carbon and Climate Neutrality Summit. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We have presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. We have also presented our research to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; at an invited paper session on renewable fuel policy at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting; at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference; at the Northeast Workshop on Energy Policy and Environmental Economics at Dartmouth; and at the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Thus far, we have worked on analyzing the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Renewable Fuel Standard. During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a book on Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics; and a Resources for the Future discussion paper.

Publications

• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Auffhammer, Maximilian, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, James Bushnell, Olivier Desch�nes, and Junjie Zhang. (2016). Chapter 4. Economic considerations: Cost-effective and efficient climate policies. In Veerabhadran "Ram" Ramanathan (Ed.), Bending the Curve: Ten scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability. Collabra, 2 (1), Article 18, 1-14.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia. (2017). Dynamic structural econometric modeling of the ethanol industry. In Alberto Adrego Pinto and David Zilberman (Eds.), Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II (pp. 293-306). Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., and C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell. (2015). The design and economics of low carbon fuel standards. Research in Transportation Economics, 52, 91-99.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, and Aaron Smith. (2015). Ex post costs and renewable identification number (RIN) prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 15-22. URL: http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=22575
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Handy, Susan, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, and Deborah Salon. (2015). Introduction to the special issue on Sustainable Transportation. Research in Transportation Economics, 52, 1-2.

Progress 12/16/13 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes academics, policy-makers, business practitioners, environmental organizations. During the reporting period, we wrote a discussion paper based on our research Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; and presented our research to Resources for the Future and at the UC Carbon and Climate Neutrality Summit. We discussed our research on renewable fuel policy in book chapter we wrote for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We have presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. We have also presented our research to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; and at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunities for training and professional development for my Ph.D. student, Gabriel Lade, with whom I have worked on this research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a book on Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics; and a Resources for the Future discussion paper. During the reporting period, we also presented our research Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; and at the UC Carbon and Climate Neutrality Summit. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We have presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. We have also presented our research to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; at an invited paper session on renewable fuel policy at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting; at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference; at the Northeast Workshop on Energy Policy and Environmental Economics at Dartmouth; and at the Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Thus far, we have worked on analyzing the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Renewable Fuel Standard. During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a book on Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics; and a Resources for the Future discussion paper.

Publications

• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Auffhammer, Maximilian, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, James Bushnell, Olivier Desch�nes, and Junjie Zhang. (2016). Chapter 4. Economic considerations: Cost-effective and efficient climate policies. In Veerabhadran "Ram" Ramanathan (Ed.), Bending the Curve: Ten scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability. Collabra, 2 (1), Article 18, 1-14.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia. (2017). Dynamic structural econometric modeling of the ethanol industry. In Alberto Adrego Pinto and David Zilberman (Eds.), Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II (pp. 293-306). Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., and C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell. (2015). The design and economics of low carbon fuel standards. Research in Transportation Economics, 52, 91-99.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, and Aaron Smith. (2015). Ex post costs and renewable identification number (RIN) prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 15-22. URL: http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=22575
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Handy, Susan, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, and Deborah Salon. (2015). Introduction to the special issue on Sustainable Transportation. Research in Transportation Economics, 52, 1-2.

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes academics, policy-makers, business practitioners, environmental organizations. During the reporting period, we wrote a discussion paper based on our research Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; and presented our research to Resources for the Future and at the UC Carbon and Climate Neutrality Summit. We discussed our research on renewable fuel policy in book chapter we wrote for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We have presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. We have also presented our research to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; and at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunities for training and professional development for my Ph.D. student, Gabriel Lade, with whom I have worked on this research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a book on Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics; and a Resources for the Future discussion paper. During the reporting period, we also presented our research Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; and at the UC Carbon and Climate Neutrality Summit. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We have presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. We have also presented our research to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; and at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to continue working on analyzing and designing policies for renewable fuels and on analyzing how the Renewable Fuel Standard and various forms of subsidies affect ethanol investment, production, entry, and exit decisions. We plan to submit our work for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Thus far, we have worked on analyzing the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Renewable Fuel Standard. During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a University of California systemwide report on Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability; a peer-reviewed book chapter for a book on Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics; and a Resources for the Future discussion paper.

Publications

• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Auffhammer, Maximilian, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, James Bushnell, Olivier Desch�nes, and Junjie Zhang. (2016). Chapter 4. Economic considerations: Cost-effective and efficient climate policies. In Veerabhadran "Ram" Ramanathan (Ed.), Bending the Curve: Ten scalable solutions for carbon neutrality and climate stability. Collabra, 2 (1), Article 18, 1-14.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia. (forthcoming). Dynamic structural econometric modeling of the ethanol industry. In Alberto Adrego Pinto and David Zilberman (Eds.), Modelling, Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II. Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., and C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell. (2015). The design and economics of low carbon fuel standards. Research in Transportation Economics, 52, 91-99.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, and Aaron Smith. (2015). Ex post costs and renewable identification number (RIN) prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 15-22. URL: http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=22575

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:Our target audience includes academics, policy-makers, business practitioners, environmental organizations. During the reporting period, we wrote a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Also during the review period, we presented our research to Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; and at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunities for training and professional development for my Ph.D. student, Gabriel Lade, with whom I have worked on this research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article, an Executive Summary for a University of California systemwide report, and a Resources for the Future discussion paper. We have also written a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Also during the review period, we presented our research to Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics; to the Biobased Industry Center Advisory Board; and at the Eighth Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to continue working on analyzing and designing policies for renewable fuels and on analyzing how the Renewable Fuel Standard and various forms of subsidies affect ethanol investment, production, entry, and exit decisions. We plan to submit our work for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Thus far, we have worked on analyzing the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Renewable Fuel Standard. During the reporting period, we wrote a peer-reviewed journal article, an Executive Summary for a University of California systemwide report, and a Resources for the Future discussion paper.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., and C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell. (2015). The design and economics of low carbon fuel standards. Research in Transportation Economics, 52, 91-99.
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Ramanathan, Veerabhadran, Juliann E. Allison, Maximilian Auffhammer, David Auston, Anthony D. Barnosky, Lifang Chiang, William D. Collins, Steven J. Davis, Fonna Forman, Susanna B. Hecht, Daniel Kammen, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, Teenie Matlock, Daniel Press, Doug Rotman, Scott Samuelsen, Gina Solomon, David G. Victor, and Byron Washom. (2015). Executive Summary. Bending the Curve: 10 Scalable Solutions for Carbon Neutrality and Climate Stability. University of California systemwide report, University of California. URL: http://uc-carbonneutralitysummit2015.ucsd.edu/_files/Bending-the-Curve.pdf
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, and Aaron Smith. (2015). Ex post costs and renewable identification number (RIN) prices under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Resources for the Future Discussion Paper 15-22. URL: http://www.rff.org/Publications/Pages/PublicationDetails.aspx?PublicationID=22575

Progress 12/16/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Our target audience includes academics, policy-makers, business practitioners, environmental organizations. During the reporting period, we wrote a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Also during the review period, we presented some of ongoing work to Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? This project has provided opportunities for training and professional development for my Ph.D. student, Gabriel Lade, with whom I have worked on this research. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? During the reporting period, we wrote a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies. We presented our research to the California Air Resources Board as well as to regulators in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia. Also during the review period, we presented some of ongoing work to Resources for the Future, a leading think tank in environmental and resource economics. Our work on renewable fuel policy was cited in the media by Platts, Biodiesel Magazine, Green Car Congress, and the UC-Davis Institute of Transportation Studies. We have also been contacted by the Environmental Defense Fund and the Oil Price Information Service, both of whom were interested in learning more about our work on renewable fuel policy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We plan to continue working on analyzing and designing policies for renewable fuels and on analyzing how the Renewable Fuels Standard and various forms of subsidies affect ethanol investment, production, entry, and exit decisions. We plan to submit our work for publication in peer-reviewed journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Thus far, we have worked on analyzing the Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Renewable Fuels Standard. During the reporting period, we wrote a report for the California Air Resources Board, an article for the California State Controller based on our research on renewable fuel policy, and a policy brief for the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies.

Publications

• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., & C.-Y. Cynthia Lin. (2013). A report on the economics of California's low carbon fuel standard and cost containment mechanisms. Prepared for the California Air Resources Board. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California at Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-13-23.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia. (2013). Containing the costs of California's low carbon fuel standard. California State Controller John Chiang Statement of General Fund Cash Receipts and Disbursements, 7 (12). URL: http://www.sco.ca.gov/eo_2013_12_summary_analysis_featured_column.html
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Lade, Gabriel E., & C.-Y. Cynthia Lin. (2014). Controlling compliance costs for California's LCFS with a price ceiling. Policy brief, University of California at Davis Institute of Transportation Studies.