THE IMPORTANCE OF U.S. FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE IN A NEW GLOBAL MARKET ENVIRONMENT

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1001763
• Multistate No.: S-1062
• Project Start Date: Oct 24, 2013
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2018
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY
202 HIMES HALL
BATON ROUGE,LA 70803-0100

Performing Department
Agri Economics & Agribusiness

Non Technical Summary
Changes in domestic agricultural and economic policies; regulations and market developments; along with structural changes in production and marketing are major factors influencing the international competitiveness of the U.S. food and agricultural sector. Evidence of structural change comes from a doubling of the prices for corn, soybeans and wheat starting in 2006. The last time prices doubled was 1973-74. The higher prices were driven by rapid increases in ethanol production and the associated derived demand for corn. Exports were also a factor in structural changes due to a continuing devaluation of the dollar. In recent years one cannot ignore the emergence of China as an economic juggernaut with a middle class exceeding the entire population of the United States. The demand for food, protein, feed grains and other agricultural products is already reaching significantly into the U.S. Over the period of 2007-2012, U.S. agricultural exports rose from $82.2 billion to $135.8 billion - a 65 percent increase. Imports rose from $70.1 billion to $103.4 billion resulting in a positive agricultural trade balance going from $12.2 billion to $32.4 billion - a 166 percent increase (ERS and FAS, 2013). The principal benefits of this research includes information pertaining to trade creation and diversion, supply response, import demand, land values, price variability, agricultural value added, food safety, the environment, and emerging bio-energy issues. Improved competitiveness of the U.S. in international food and agricultural trade is expected to strengthen the employment base and increase income levels in respective states. Research conducted within the proposed project will primarily address SAAESD Priority Area Goal 1, AN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM THAT IS HIGHLY COMPETITIVE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. Research will specifically address needs pertaining to sub-goals: G. Competitiveness in international markets and J. Public policy & economics of agricultural production systems.

Animal Health Component

100%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

0%

Applied

100%

Developmental

0%

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
606	6120	3010	50%
610	6110	3010	50%

Knowledge Area
610 - Domestic Policy Analysis; 606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof; 6120 - International economy and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

agricultural trade

domestic policy

Goals / Objectives
Determine the impacts of U.S. and foreign policies, market structures, and regulations on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment. Determine the impacts of international arrangements and institutions on U.S. food and agricultural trade, the economy, and the environment.

Project Methods
Methods to accomplish these objectives include econometrics, simulation, spatial and optimization models, and time series analysis. Market behavior, supply and demand along with risk and uncertainty will be studied using these methods. The economic impacts will focus on changes in output, value added, employment, the welfare of consumers and producers, and government expenditures. Measures of economic performance will focus on prices, trade, economies at the regional and national level, and the environment. In addition, we will develop new methods and extend existing methods to accomplish these objectives.

Progress 10/24/13 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences reached during this reporting period were industry leaders, government officials, and academics interested in the impact of domestic and trade policies on agricultural trade and food security. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Funding was provided for a Master's level graduate research assistant who examined the relationship between tax structures and levels and food security in Guatemala. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results have been disseminated to communities of interest through refereed journal articles, conference presentations, and a Master's Thesis. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Following the volumes on Food Security that were published in earlier years of this project, an overview chapter was written that synthesized the collaborative research that was conducted on Food Security. Publication of this synthesis in the Routledge Handbook of Agricultural Economics will provide easy access to this information on Food Security. This research accomplished the goals of this project as it showed the impacts of a variety of domestic and international policies, market structures, regulations, and arrangements on Food Security, both for developed and developing countries.

Publications

• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kennedy, P.L., A. Schmitz, and C.G. van Kooten (2018), ⿿Food Storage and Food Security,⿝ in Encyclopedia of Food Security and Sustainability, Anderson, J., Berry, El, Birner, R., Ferranti, P. Galli, A., Grace, D., Hefferon, K., Serra-Majem, L. and P. Singer (Eds.), London, UK: Elsevier, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-100596-5.22251-8.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kennedy, P.L., (2018), ⿿Advances in the Economics of Food Security,⿝ in Routledge Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Cramer, G.L., Paudel, K. and A. Schmitz (Eds.), 175-188. London, UK: Routledge Publishing.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Kennedy, P.L. ⿿The Impact of Indian Rice Storage: A Case Study,⿝ Paper presented in the Organized Symposium Food Security and Commodity Storage at the International Congress of Agricultural Economists, 2018 Triennial Conference of the IAAE, Vancouver, BC, July 29 ⿿ August 2, 2018.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Fernandez, Guillermo, Tax Reform and Food Security in Guatemala, M.S. Thesis, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University and A&M College; December 2018.

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences reached by our efforts this year include Louisiana agricultural producers and firms involved in agricultural trade, applied researchers in the areas of agricultural trade and agricultural policy, government officials and policy makers engaged in international trade negotiations, and government officials and policy makers with interests in food security and the impact of international trade. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Significant opportunities for training and professional development have been provided by this project. One graduate student has assisted in research with respect to analyzing food security in Central American countries as a component of her graduate training. In addition, the PI has been able to attend meetings of the S-1062 multistate project and gained insight into international trade issues through collaboration with colleagues from other landgrant universities. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of our research and collaboration have been disseminated through three volumes on Food Securtiy. In addition, these volumes consolidated the efforts of other researchers around the world in a medium that is easily accessible to researchers, practitioners, and others concerned with Food Security and International Trade. Based on this work, the PI has been invited to contribute a chapter on Food Security to a Handbook of Agricultural Economics to be disseminated through Elsevier publishers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?In addition to publication of a chapter on Food Security in the Elsevier Handbook, work will be completed to determine the role of tax structure and choice of revenue mechanisms by the government in determining the level of domestic food security in Central American countries. This issue will then be examined further to determine opportunities to improve these situations with respect to the various components of food security, particularly with respect to availability and access.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Research was conducted to determine the role of U.S. and foreign policies, market structures and regulations on food security and agricultural trade. Specifically, the impact of mecanization and technology adoption was analyzed to determine its impact on the productivity of the Louisiana and Florida sugar industries. Analysis was also conducted to consider the implications of adoption of GM seed by the U.S. sugar beet industry and how that decision could affect both the U.S. sugarcane and sugar beet industries. Initial work was conducted to examine the role of tax structure and choice of revenue mechanisms by the government in determining the level of domestic food security in Central American countries.

Publications

• Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: 1. Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Editors), (2017). World Agricultural Resources and Food Security. Volume 17, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: 1. Kennedy, P.L., (2017), Advances in the Economics of Food Security, in Routledge Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Cramer, G.L., Paudel, K. and A. Schmitz (Eds.), London, UK: Routledge Publishing, Forthcoming.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: 2. Kennedy, P.L., K. Lewis, and A. Schmitz, (2017), Food Security through Biotechnology: The Double-Edged Sword of GM Crops in World Agricultural Resources and Food Security, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.), Volume 17, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: 3. Schmitz, A., P.L. Kennedy, and M. Salassi, (2017), Sugarcane Yield and Production: Florida and Louisiana in World Agricultural Resources and Food Security, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.), Volume 17, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audiences reached by our efforts this year include Louisiana agricultural producers and firms involved in agricultural trade, applied researchers in the areas of agricultural trade and agricultural policy, government officials and policy makers engaged in international trade negotiations, and government officials and policy makers with interests in food security and the impact of international trade. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of our research were disseminated through two volumes on Food Security. In addition these volumes consolidated the efforts of other researchers around the world in a medium that is easily accessible to researchers, practitioners, and others concerned with Food Security and International Trade. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Research is underway to determine the role of the changing structure of the sugar beet and sugarcane processing industries and how it is influenced by U.S. farm and trade policies.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Research was conducted to determine the role of biotechnology, technology adoption, and food storage on food security. In addition, the role of international trade in determining food security was examined.

Publications

• Type: Books Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Editors), (2016). World Agricultural Resources and Food Security. Volume 17, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Editors), (2016). Food Security in a Food Abundant World: An Individual Country Perspective. Volume 16, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kennedy, P.L., K. Lewis, and A. Schmitz, (2016), Food Security through Biotechnology: The Double-Edged Sword of GM Crops in World Agricultural Resources and Food Security, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.), Volume 17, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Forthcoming.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmitz, A., P.L. Kennedy, and M. Salassi, (2016), Sugarcane Yield and Production: Florida and Louisiana in World Agricultural Resources and Food Security, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.), Volume 17, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Forthcoming.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmitz, A., and P.L. Kennedy (2016), Food Security and the Role of Food Storage in Food Security in a Food Abundant World: An Individual Country Perspective, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.). Volume 16, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience includes Louisiana agricultural producers and firms involved in agricultural trade, applied researchers in the areas of agricultural trade and agricultural policy, government officials and policy makers engaged in international trade negotiations, and government officials and policy makers with interests in the impact of international trade agreements. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Investigators at the LSU AgCenter have benefitted through opportunities to collaborate and interact with researchers from the University of Florida, Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Texas A&M, the University of Tennessee, and other member institutions of the S-1062 multistate research project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results have been disseminated to communities of interest through the publication of two books, two chapters in books, a refereed journal article, a USDA bulletin, and presentations at professional meetings. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The investigators plan to produce another volume on Food Security, determining the impact of U.S. domestic and trade policies on Food Security. The PI will serve as an editor of the Journal volume as well as a co-author of anarticle in this joint-output of the S-1062 multistate research group. The LSU AgCenter PI is working with other multistate research group members to 1) examine the impact of GMO sugarbeets relative to non-GMO sugarcane in determining food security, competitiveness, and market share among the different producer groups; and 2) examine the factors influencing the decreasing number of sugarcane mills and sugarbeet factories in the United States and determine the impact of these closings on the competitiveness of the U.S. sugar industry. Results from these analyses will be disseminated in books, refereed journals, bulletins, and through presentations at professional meetings. In addition, the results will be distributed through fact sheets and other appropriate means to better extend these results to producer and consumer audiences.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Researchwas initiatedwith researchers from the University of Florida to examine the interface between environmental sustainability in the everglades and the competitiveness of the U.S. sugar industry.Collaborative work was conducted with researchers from the University of Florida and Arizona State University to better evaluate the factors influencing food security. A two-volume set was compiled and is in final publication stages, consolidating expertise from a number of universities and countries to better define the issuesaffecting food security and identify solutions. Collaborative work with researchers from the USDA/ERS examined sugar and sweetener trade between the United States and Mexico. Special focus was placed on the anti-dumping and countervailing duty suspension agreements and their impact on U.S.-Mexico sugar trade. In addition, current trends in the U.S.-Mexico sweetener market were examined.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schmitz, A., P.L. Kennedy, and J. Hill-Gabriel. "Irreversibility and Sustainability: Attempts to Save the Florida Everglades." The International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic, and Social Sustainability: Annual Review, Volume 10, 2014, pp.1-14. Article: Print (Spiral Bound). Published Online: June 17, 2015 (Article: Electronic (PDF File; 685.711KB)).
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schmitz, A., T. Schmitz, P.L. Kennedy, and D. Haynes. Benefit Cost Analyses  Distributional Welfare Weights and Food Security, Paper presented at the International Track Session, American Applied Economics Association Annual Meetings, San Francisco, CA, July 26-28, 2015.
• Type: Books Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Editors), (2015). Food Security in an Uncertain World: An International Perspective. Volume 15, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Books Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Editors), (2015). Food Security in a Food Abundant World: An Individual Country Perspective. Volume 16, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schmitz, A., and P.L. Kennedy (2015), Food Security: Starvation in the Midst of Plenty in Food Security in an Uncertain World: An International Perspective, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.), Volume 15, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schmitz, A., and P.L. Kennedy (2015), Food Security and the Role of Food Storage in Food Security in a Food Abundant World: An Individual Country Perspective, Schmitz, A., Kennedy, P.L., Schmitz, T.G. (Eds.). Volume 16, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization. Bingley, UK: Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
• Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zahniser, S., P.L. Kennedy, G. Nigatu, and M. McConnell, A New Outlook for the U.S.-Mexico Sugar and Sweetener Market, USDA Economic Research Service Outlook Report, Washington, DC. Forthcoming.

Progress 10/24/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience includes Louisiana agricultural producers and firms involved in agricultural trade, applied researchers in the areas of agricultural trade and agricultural policy, government officials and policy makers engaged in international trade negotiations, and government officials and policy makers with interests in the impact of international trade agreements. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Investigators at the LSU AgCenter have benefitted through opportunities to collaborate and interact with researchers from the University of Florida, Colorado State University, Texas A&M, and other member institutions of the S-1062 multistate research project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Peer-reviewed publications have been prepared and submitted. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? As scenarios change with respect to improve the environmental conditions of the everglades with respect to the sugar land buyout, modifications will be made to the model and further analyses conducted to determine their impact on the sugar market as well as the environmental impacts on the Florida Everglades. Work will be completed in examining the relationships between the United States and Mexican Sugar and Sweetener markets. An ERS publication/outlook volume will be published. Work will be completed in determining the impact of U.S. domestic and trade policies on Food Security. The PI will serve as an editor of the Journal volume as well as a co-author of a journal article in this joint-output of the S-1062 multistate research group.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Analyses of a sugar land buyout determined impact on the sugar market, as well as, the environmental impacts on the Florida Everglades.Work was initiated to examine the relationships between the United States and Mexican Sugar and Sweetener markets. Work was initiated to determine the impact of U.S. domestic and trade policies on Food Security.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2014 Citation: Schmitz, A., P.L. Kennedy, and J. Hill-Gabriel. "Irreversibility and Sustainability: Attempts to Save the Florida Everglades" in The International Journal of Environmental, Cultural, Economic, and Social Sustainability: Annual Review. 10(2014): In Press.