ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTIES IN HOST PATHOGEN INTERACTIONS IN THE PRE- AND POST- HARVEST ENVIRONMENT

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 1001609
• Project Start Date: Dec 1, 2013
• Project End Date: Nov 30, 2018
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
MICHIGAN STATE UNIV
(N/A)
EAST LANSING,MI 48824

Performing Department
Biosystems & Agric Engineering

Non Technical Summary
There are several limitations that inhibitthe use of quantitative microbial risk assessmentfor addressing emerging threats. Namely, the treatment of uncertainty in risk models and lack of biologically plausible dose-response models present two major issues. This project seeks to address these two issues in order to increase the utility of risk assessment for the development of biological control measures for plants and crops; and to evaluate antibiotic resistance from farm to fork specifically, but the research will also have generalizable outcomes. Ultimately risk assessment may be used to evaluate alternative strategies for reducing hazards related to food safety, crop yield and environmental health. The project will use statistical methods and modeling coupled with decision analysis to develop new risk models that can be used to complete microbial risk assessments in these areas.The long-term goal of the research is to increase the capacity of risk assessment to evaluate specific risk management strategies related to (I) Agriculture - Food, Feed and Fiber; (II) Environment; and (III) Food and Health.

Animal Health Component

50%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

50%

Developmental

50%

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
723	4099	2080	50%
215	4020	2020	25%
722	4099	2020	25%

Knowledge Area
215 - Biological Control of Pests Affecting Plants; 722 - Zoonotic Diseases and Parasites Affecting Humans; 723 - Hazards to Human Health and Safety;

Subject Of Investigation
4099 - Microorganisms, general/other; 4020 - Fungi;

Field Of Science
2020 - Engineering; 2080 - Mathematics and computer sciences;

Keywords

risk assessment

dose response modeling

antibiotic resistance

food safety

uncertainty analysis

decision analysis

plant pathogens

Goals / Objectives
The goal of this project is to increase the capacity of risk assessment to inform risk-based decisions about agriculture (food, fiber and feed), the environment, food and health. In order to accomplish this goal, the following objectives will be pursued: Objective 1 Increase the availability of biologically plausible dose response models for emerging hazards. Develop novel biologically plausible dose-response models for agriculturally relevant host and microorganism interactions. Assess variability and uncertainty in dose response models associated with the influence of modifying factors (e.g. species, strains, isolates, environmental conditions, reproductive fitness/dispersal efficiency of the pathogen, age/general health of the host, etc.) on dose-response relationships. Test and develop standard approaches to analyzing dose-response relationships in agriculturally relevant scenarios for which the use of QMRA has been limited. Objective 2 Investigate the utility of the risk assessment framework for characterizing risks associated with emerging hazards. Apply established methods to produce estimates of risk for uncertain and uncharacterized hazards. Objective 3 Integrate human and environmental health risk into decision making models to evaluate risk mitigation strategies Evaluate antimicrobial resistance risk management mitigation scenarios The long-term objective of this research is to expand the framework to other issues related to human health and environmental risk assessment, which involve many unresolved uncertainties like the migration of nanoparticles in environmental media.

Project Methods
To meet the objectives of this project, the following summary of methods is provided: Objective 1 Increase the availability of biologically plausible dose response models for emerging hazards. 1A. Develop novel biologically plausible dose-response models for agriculturally relevant host and microorganism interactions. Based on current knowledge on QMRA studies, it is hypothesized that statistically acceptable fits will be achieved using the exponential, beta-Poisson and other previously used dose response models in QMRA to agriculturally important microbes. Application of these models to data sets available in open literature will be conducted first as a proof of concept and to inform the collection of new data to fill key knowledge gaps. Physiologically based dose response models will created based on the current state of knowledge on mechanisms of action. For the case of plant diseases, previously published data can be mined to create data sets of graded dosing experiments. A systematic data mining of the literature for dose response studies related to the most significant plant diseases and causative agents will be conducted to develop data sets for modeling. The data will be evaluated for applicability and quality based on specific criteria including experimental design. 1B. Assess variability and uncertainty in dose response models associated with the use of surrogates and the influence of modifying factors (e.g. species, strains, isolates, environmental conditions, reproductive fitness/dispersal efficiency of the pathogen, age/general health of the host, etc.) on dose-response relationships The method of bootstrapping residuals has been demonstrated to be suitable for estimating uncertainty bounds for dose-response data (Efron and Tibshirani 1993). This approach has been widely used in microbial risk assessment dose response studies and is documented and demonstrated in numerous studies in the QMRA Wiki (http:// wiki.camra.msu.edu/). Additionally, uncertainty will be assessed within a fully probabilistic framework using Bayesian statistical approaches. This method will also generate generalized, predictive models of dose response applicable to unobserved conditions including emerging pathogens. Uncertainty can result from the use of surrogate information in modeling such as different isolates or strains. In human health risk assessment, dose-response data from animal models are commonly used in place of human dose-response data. Using the classical statistical approaches described above to describe uncertainty has limitations in such cases. The surrogate information is considered either completely representative of the quantity of interest or completely irrelevant. Bayesian hierarchical approaches provide a means to share information among related model parameters and to develop estimates for model quantities that have not been observed directly. Hierarchical modeling techniques are well established in the statistical literature (Messner et al. 2001, (Mitchell?Blackwood, Gurian et al. 2012), Teunis et al. 2002). These approaches are well suited to pathogenic agent studies across strain, isolates and hosts. Additionally, it is possible to incorporate modifying factors into dose response models as new variables to determine how much of the variability in empirical response data can be explained by these factors. Within the Bayesian framework quantification of the uncertainty may use to establish data driven uncertainty factors. 1C. Test and develop standard approaches to analyzing dose-response relationships in agriculturally relevant scenarios for which the use of QMRA has been limited. The working hypothesis for this objective is that a minimum infective dose can be identified for select pathogen-host combinations. To test this hypothesis, graded dosing experiments will be analyzed. Efforts to collect data at the low dose range will be done to inform the appropriateness of a threshold of response. Assessment of modeling fits will be facilitated by likelihood ratio tests. Comparison between models can be conducted based on the deviance criterion (Haas, Rose et al. 1999). If we have two dose-response models, where model 2 is a special case of model 1, with numbers of parameters m1 and m2, where m2

Progress 12/01/13 to 11/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of the research were presented at the Society of Risk Analsyis Annual Meeting in Dec. 2017. Additionally, abstracts were submitted and accepted for presentation in Dec. 2018. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1 1. A new model was developed for N. fowleri. A manuscript for this model was submitted adn accepted for publication. Objective 2 1. We continued collecting primary data on the development of antibiotic resistance in in vivo systems. A proposal was submitted using the primary data in October 2017. We are currently revising it for resubmission. 2. A case-study was accepted for publication from the QMRAIII course. It addresses Salmonella risks from aquaculture and demonstrated a new application of risk assessment. Another case study was revised and resubmitted. Objective 3 1. An MCDA model was completed for evalauting antibiotic compounds in order to support stewardship. The manuscript is currently beign finalized for submission.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: K.A. Hamilton, A. Chen, E. de-Graft Johnson, A. Gitter, S. Kozak, C. Niquice, A. Zimmer-Faust, M. H. Weir, J. Mitchell, and P. Gurian. Salmonella risks due to consumption of aquaculture-produced shrimp. Microbial Risk Assessment, (2018) 9:22-32 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2018.04.001)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: K. S. Enger1, J. Mitchell,* B. Murali1, D. N. Birdsell, P. Keim, P. L. Gurian and D. M. Wagner. Evaluating the Long-Term Persistence of Bacillus spores on Common Surfaces, Microbial Biotechnology (2018) (https://doi.org/10.1111/1751-7915.13267)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: 6. M. Salehi, M. Abouali1, M. Wang, Z. Zhou, A.P. Nejadhashemi, J. Mitchell, S. Caskey and A. Whelton. Case study: Fixture water use and drinking water quality in a new residential green building, Chemosphere (2018) 195:80-89 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.11.070)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: . Weir, A. Mraz and J. Mitchell. An Advanced Legionellosis Risk Model Incorporating Epidemiological Evidence of Disease Burden, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Mitchell, K. Dean, S. Tamrakar, Y. Huang and J. Rose. Opportunistic pathogen dose-response models, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: K. Dean, Mark H. Weir and J. Mitchell.* "Development of a Dose-Response Model for Naegleria fowleri," Journal of Water and Health (in press)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A. Whelton, M. Salehi, M. Abouali, M. Wang, Z. Zhou, A.P. Nejadhashemi, J. Mitchell and S. Caskey. Water Chemistry and Micriology Changes as Plumbing Ages, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: B. Feighner and J. Mitchell. Discussion of Lessons Learned from Flint about Risk Assumptions in the Lead and Copper Rule, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: A. Bope, M. Weir, A. Pruden, M. Morowitz, J. Mitchell and K. Dannemiller. "Translating Research to Policy at the NCSE 2017 Symposium "Microbiology of the Built Environment: Implications for Health and Design," Microbiome (in press)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: J. Mitchell,* L. Sifuentes, A. Wissler, S. Abd-Elmaksoud, G. Lopez and C. Gerba. "Ultraviolet light doses needed to inactivate bacteria and virus on fomite surfaces," Journal of Applied Microbiology (in press)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A. Chabrelie,? L. Zhang, G. Bornhorst and J. Mitchell. Horizontal Gene Transfer Under Dynamic System Conditions for Understanding Dose-Response Relationships for Antibiotic Resistance Risks, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-14, 2017) ?Student Merit Award Winner, Dose Response Specialty Group

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?1, New research case studies were developed as part fo the QMRA III training course. 2. A post-doctoral fellow was training as part of the antibiotic resistance field and microbial analysisstudy. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to submit the results of our field studies and bench studies on antibiotic resistance proliferation in the environment and exposure. We also plan to publish additional dose-response models for opportunistic pathogens and the gene transfer work.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1 Increase the availability of biologically plausible dose response models for emerging hazards. 1. A manuscript was published on the dose-response app developed last reporting period. 2. The new QMRAwiki website was designed and is undergoing beta-testing. 3. A manuscript was drafted for the nosema dose-response model for honey bees. 4. A manuscript for the development of a dose-response model for Ebola virus was submitted. It was used in a QMRA model for sewer workers, which was published. 5. Two manuscripts for opportunisitic pathogens were drafted. Objective 2 Investigate the utility of the risk assessment framework for characterizing risks associated with emerging hazards. 1. A manuscript was drafted for the antibiotic field study conducted last reporting period. It is undergoing final revisions and will be submitted within the next month. 2. A column study was designed to investigate fate, transport and persistence of resistant genes. 3. Preliminary data was collected at the bench scale on horizonatal gene transfer rates for resistant genes within systems under dynamic conditions. Objective 3 Integrate human and environmental health risk into decision making models to evaluate risk mitigation strategies 1. Over 100 data sets were analyzed for the Global Water Pathogens Project. The book chapter was reviewed and is awaiting publication on the web. This book is being used for santiation deign around the world. It is an online textbook that is an update of the classic text ""Sanitation and Disease: Health Aspects of Excreta and Wastewater Management" (Feachem et al. 1983)which currently remains the key reference point for the development of quantitative guidance for sanitation practices.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Maryam Salehi; Mohammad Abouali, Ph.D.; Mian Wang; Zhi Zhou, Ph.D.; Amir Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Ph.D.; Jade Mitchell, Ph.D.; Stephen Caskey; Case Study: Fixture Water Use and Drinking Water Quality in a New Residential Green Building. Chemosphere
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: M. Weir, J. Mitchell, A. Mraz, and J. Rose. QMRA Wiki: An educational tool for interdisciplinary teaching of risk modeling in engineering curriculums 2017 American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH (June 25-28, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: U. Adhikari, J. Mitchell, M. Weir, and J. Libarkin. Measuring the success of an educational program through box-and-arrow diagram: A case study of the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Interdisciplinary Instructional Institute 2017 American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH (June 25-28, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: E .Esfahanian, K. Dolan, J. Mitchell. Construction of a microbial kinetic model to capture Staphylococcus growth and decay on skin, 9th International Conference on Inverse Problems in Engineering, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. (May 23-26, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Carrera, J. Mitchell and L. Radonic. "Community Based Participatory Research and Citizen Science for Community Organizing around Water Quality and Water Shutoffs". 2017 American Sociological Association Annual Meeting/Water & Inequality Panel/Environment & Technology, Montreal, QC Canada (August 12-15, 2017) abstract accepted/under review
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Mitchell, M. Weir, J. Rose and J. Libarkin. The Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Interdisciplinary Instructional Institute (QMRAIII)  A Platform for Cross Disciplinary Training of Engineers with Social and Biological Scientists to Address Public Health Issues 2017 American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH (June 25-28, 2017)
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram and J. Mitchell. Pathogen Specific Persistence Modeling Data In: Global Water Pathogen Project, http://www.waterpathogens.org/
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Antimicrobial Resistance and Risk Microbiology of the Built Environment: Implications for Health and Design. NCSE 2017: Integrating Environment and Health, 17th National Conference and Global Forum for Science, Policy, and the Environment, Washington, DC - January 24-26, 2017
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Legionella Legacy Threat and New Risk for Safe Drinking Water, Michigan Section American Water Works Association (AWWA), 2016 Fall Regional Meeting - Mt. Pleasant, MI - October 18, 2016
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Measuring the Potential Impacts of the Unintentional Consequences Michigan State University, Center for Ingredient Safety Annual Meeting - October 4-6, 2016
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram, X. Guo, R. Stedfel, M. Johnson, A. Chabrelie and J. Mitchell. "Linking antibiotic usage to proliferation of antimicrobial resistance in the environment: A cases study of a MI dairy farm. AEESP Research and Education Conference, Ann Arbor, MI (June 20-22, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram, Y. Kim and J. Mitchell. "A meta-analysis for estimating the persistence of HF183 marker in environmental waters," 2017 Water Microbiology Conference, Chapel Hill, NC (May 15-19 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: J. Mitchell, J. Rose and D. Donahue. Expert Evaluation of the Water Crisis in Flint, Michigan, Society for Risk Analysis 2016 Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA (Dec. 11-15, 2016)
• Type: Websites Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: qmrawiki.canr.msu.edu
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: P. Hatami1, C. Gibbs, L.Rivers, and U. Adhikari1 and J. Mitchell.* Applicability of Benford's Law to Compliance Assessment of Self-Reported Wastewater Treatment Plant Discharge Data, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (accepted September 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: M. Weir, J. Mitchell, W. Flynn, J. M. Pope. VizDR a Microbial Dose Response Visualization and Modeling Application for QMRA Modelers and Educators, Environmental Modelling & Software. (2017) 88: 74-83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.011
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Tamrakar, J. Henley, P. Gurian, C. Gerba, K. Enger1, J. Mitchell, J. Rose, Persistence analysis of poliovirus on three different types of fomites, Journal of Applied Microbiology (2017)122(2): 522530. doi: 10.1111/jam.13299
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: U. Adhikari1, M. H. Weir, K. Boehnke2, A. Chabrelie1, E. McKenzie2, L. Ikner2, M. Wang2, Q. Wang2, C. Haas, J. Rose, J. Mitchell. Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in a Hospital Setting: A Case Study Based on a South Korean Spreading Scenario. Risk Analysis (under review)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Mitchell, J. B. Rose and C. N. Haas. Ebola Virus Dose Response Model Development from Primate Data
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: A. Chabrelie 1, J. Mitchell*, J. Rose, D. Charbonneau, and Y. Ishida Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces, Risk Analysis (submitted May 2016, accepted with revisions Nov. 2016, resubmitted April 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Ashleigh Bope; Mark Weir; Amy Pruden; Michael Morowitz; Jade Mitchell; Karen Dannemiller. Translating Research to Policy at the NCSE 2017 Symposium "Microbiology of the Built Environment: Implications for Health and Design". Microbiome
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram1, Y. Kim1, A. D. Wissler1, K. J. Dean1, J. B. Rose, and J Mitchell*. A meta-analysis for determining the persistence pattern of human-associated Bacteroidales populations in environmental waters Water Research

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems:Due to the staffing issues reported during the last reporting period, wediscontinued the work on the plant pathogen dose response modeling. Our proof of concept work is currently focused on the use of QMRA inentomology. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A postdoctoral research began workingon the project in March 2016. This researcher is contributing to our work to understandthe fate and transport of antimicrobial resistant genes in order to apply quantitative risk assessment techniques to this area of work. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to submit the manuscripts listed above. We have horizontal gene transfer studies planned to collect some preliminary and fundamental data on antibiotic resistant gene transfer potential as it relates to system dynamics.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1 Increase the availability of biologically plausible dose response models for emerging hazards. 1. A manuscript was suibmitted on the dose-response model app developed during the last reporting period. The model is currently available on the QMRAwiki (qmrawiki.canr.msu.edu). The paper is under review. 2. A new collaboration with a colleague in entomology resulted in development of a new dose-response model for honey bees affected by neonic pesticides. The model was used in a QMRA case study during the QMRAIII workshop at MSU from July 22 - Aug. 1, 2016. We are currently working on drafting this publication. Objective 2 Investigate the utility of the risk assessment framework for characterizing risks associated with emerging hazards. Apply established methods to produce estimates of risk for uncertain and uncharacterized hazards. 1. Data on the usage of antibiotics and the occurence of antibiotic resistant genes was collected through field sampling on a dairy farm. The samples were analyzed and we are currently drafiting a manuscript to elucidate the environmental pathways associated with manure application. 2. Through the collaboration mentioned in Obj. 1, we will evaluate the use of QMRA for understanding bee colony collapse - an exciting new application and pressing problem. Objective 3 Integrate human and environmental health risk into decision making models to evaluate risk mitigation strategies Evaluate antimicrobial resistance risk management mitigation scenarios 1. Based on the results of the study above, we will identify manure management practices which contribute to or reduce the proliferation of antimicrobial resistance in the farm environment antibiotic stewardship practices on dairy farms. The long-term objective of this research is to expand the framework to other issues related to human health and environmental risk assessment, which involve many unresolved uncertainties like the migration of nanoparticles in environmental media. 1. During the reporting period, our research has focused on evalauting the persistence of genes and pathogens in wastewater and biosolids. More than 50 data sets have been analyzed under the Global Water Pathogens Project. We are currently compiling and analyzing these results. This work will fill data gaps in exposure models. The data sets and models will be publically available on a new QMRAwiki which is under development.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: S. Tamrakar, J. Henley, P. Gurian, C. Gerba, K. Enger, J. Mitchell, and J. Rose. Persistence analysis of poliovirus on three different types of fomites, Journal of Applied Microbiology (in press)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: A. Chabrelie, J. Mitchell, J. Rose, D. Charbonneau, and Y. Ishida. Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces, Risk Analysis (under review)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: L. Sifuentes, J. Mitchell, A. Wissler, S. Abd-Elmaksoud, G. Lopez, and C. Gerba, Charles. Ultraviolet light doses needed to inactivate bacteria and virus on fomite surfaces, Journal of Applied Microbiology (under review)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: J. Mitchell and V. Misra, Selection of Surrogates for Biological Agents with Long-Term Environmental Persistence, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: M. Weir and J. Mitchell, Viz-DR: A Microbial Dose Response Visualization and Optimization Tool for QMRA Students and Novices, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: P. Hatami, J. Mitchell, C. Gibbs, L. Rivers. Application of Benfords Law in the development of Data Driven Decision Support for Environmental Enforcement, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: A. Chabrelie, J. Mitchell, J. Rose, D. Charbonneau, Y. Ishida. Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: A. Anandan, A. Chen, E. de-Graft Johnson, A. Gitter, P. L. Gurian, K. Hamilton A. Kumar, S. Kozak, J. Mitchell, C. Niquice, D. Singh, S. Baranidharan, and A. Zimmer-Faust. Identifying Data Gaps in Understanding Feasibility of Reuse of Nanoparticles-containing Wastewater and Un-Disinfected Biologically Stabilized Wastewater in Aquaculture, American Chemical Society, Philadelphia, PA, USA, August 22, 2016.

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The research will benefit multiple stakeholders to include regulators and policy makers, agricultural producers, communities, and consumers. Changes/Problems:The post-doctoral fellow hired last year to complete the plant pathogen project and publication goals was unable to accomplish all tasks due to competency issuesand interests. However, sufficient data was colelcted through literature review to develop preliminary models which will be completed in the coming years of the project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?QMRA III - an intensive short course on QMRA for emerging hazards was conducted August 1-12, 2015. There were 32 participants from the US and abroad. The course was open to graduate students, early career faculty and government researchers and policy makers. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Presentations,Publications andWorkshops as noted in Products. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?1. Draft and submit work completed during this reporting period for publication. 2. Through MSU CHIA funding, work with collaborators to develop antibiotic resistance risk models and collect preliminary data for larger proposals. 3. Continue to expand risk assessment work to new emerging hazards through the NIh funded project. 4. Continue to sek additional funding to support these objectives.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: 1. Data was collected to evaluate plant-pathogen dose-response models. 2. Preliminary models were fit to a few data sets to assess fit. 3. New collaborators in the area of plant pathology and plant epidemiology were established. 4. A major grant proposal was submitted to support the development of plant pathogen models. Objective 2: 1. Funding to investigate risks associated with antibiotic resistance was obtained with collaborators through the MSU Center for Health Impacts of Agriculture. 2. A presentation was made to the Society of Risk Analysis World Congress on antibiotic resistance risk assessment (see Products for citation). 3. A major funding proposal was submitted to support antibiotic resistance risk research. 4. An NIH funded short course was conducted from August 1-12, 2015 to address risk assessment of emerging global health hazards. Five (5) case studies were completed with participants and leading scientists in the area of QMRAthat will lead to publications. 5. The PI became an editor for the Global Water Pathogens Project, a UNESCO and Dow Corporation funded project to develop an updated information source for water sanitation across the world. The PI will be responsible for data collection and development of new models that can be used fo risk assessment. Objective 3: 1, Through collaboration with Conservation Criminology, a study is being conducted to develop a risk based decision framework for environmental agencies to access discharge data of multiple pollutants. Presentations and a manuscript from this work was completed during the reproting period.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Mitchell, J., "Understanding the Challenge of Antibiotic Resistant Risks." Society for Risk Analysis World Congress. Matrix @ Biopolis, Singapore. 19-23 July 2015
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Misra, V. and Mitchell, J. "Comparing the decay of Bacillus Spores by beta regression." Internship in Global Engineering and Advanced Research (in GEAR)Research Symposium. Michigan State University, College of Engineering, East Lansing, MI. 8 July 2015
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hatami, P., Mitchell, J., Gibbs, C., Rivers, L., Dempsey, T. "Assessment of Applicability of Benfords Law to Detection of Mishandling in Self-reported Discharge Data of Wastewater Treatment Plant." Environmental Science and Public Policy Program Research Symposium. Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI. 1 April 2015
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gibbs, C., Rivers, L., Dempsey, T., Mitchell, J."Environmental Regulation and Enforcement: Structures, Processes and the Use of Data for Fraud Detection." Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (accepted)

Progress 12/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Research findings were disseminated to both accadmic and professional audiences through conference presentations. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been disseminated through conference preseantations and papers as documented in the 'Product' section of this report. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? 1. Experimentally test dose response for plant pathogens in the lab to create a new data set. 2. Publish the plant epidemiology literature review. 3. Complete proof of concept modeling. 4. Submit proposals to support both plant dose-response and antibiotic resistance risk assessment tasks.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: A post-doctoral research fellow was hired to collect preliminary data. We are performing a literature review on plant epidemiology, plant pathogen dose-response models and building database for proof of concept modeling. Objective 2 and 3: New collaborations were established within Biosystems Engineering and within the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife. Proposals were submitted to EPAto support collaborative work under this objective for risk assocaiated with stream health and invasive species, respectively. All objectives: Funding was secured through the NIH which support all objectives under this project as well as an integrated education and outreach training program.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: *J. Mitchell, M.Weir, W. van Osch, and J. Rose. The QMRA Wiki: A Social Media Tool for Interdisciplinary and Interagency Collaboration for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA. ISBN: 978-88-9035-744-2 (2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: *B. Murali and J. Mitchell.The Effect of Recovery on Modeling Inactivation of Bacillus Spores on HVAC Filters. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA. ISBN: 978-88-9035-744-2 (2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: B. Murali, and J. Mitchell, Modeling the Persistence of Microbes with Long-Term Survivability in the Environment, ASABE Annual International Meeting, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (July 2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: J. Mitchell. Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products in the Environment - do we care? 63rd Michigan Onsite Wastewater Conference (January 7-9, 2014) [Invited]
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: B. Murali, and J. Mitchell, Modeling the Recovery of Bacillus Spores from HVAC Filters, Sixth Annual Graduate Academic Conference, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (March 2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: B. Murali, and J. Mitchell, Recovery of Bacillus anthracis Spores from HVAC Filters Using Two Quantification Techniques, Engineering Graduate Research Symposium, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (March 2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: C. Gibbs. L. Rivers, T. Dempsey, J. Mitchell and M. Gammans, Unpacking the Black Box: A Case Study of Environmental Enforcement American Society of Criminology (November 2014) (Accepted Abstract)

Progress 12/01/13 to 11/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results of the research were presented at the Society of Risk Analsyis Annual Meeting in Dec. 2017. Additionally, abstracts were submitted and accepted for presentation in Dec. 2018. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1 1. A new model was developed for N. fowleri. A manuscript for this model was submitted adn accepted for publication. Objective 2 1. We continued collecting primary data on the development of antibiotic resistance in in vivo systems. A proposal was submitted using the primary data in October 2017. We are currently revising it for resubmission. 2. A case-study was accepted for publication from the QMRAIII course. It addresses Salmonella risks from aquaculture and demonstrated a new application of risk assessment. Another case study was revised and resubmitted. Objective 3 1. An MCDA model was completed for evalauting antibiotic compounds in order to support stewardship. The manuscript is currently beign finalized for submission.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: K.A. Hamilton, A. Chen, E. de-Graft Johnson, A. Gitter, S. Kozak, C. Niquice, A. Zimmer-Faust, M. H. Weir, J. Mitchell, and P. Gurian. Salmonella risks due to consumption of aquaculture-produced shrimp. Microbial Risk Assessment, (2018) 9:22-32 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mran.2018.04.001)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: K. S. Enger1, J. Mitchell,* B. Murali1, D. N. Birdsell, P. Keim, P. L. Gurian and D. M. Wagner. Evaluating the Long-Term Persistence of Bacillus spores on Common Surfaces, Microbial Biotechnology (2018) (https://doi.org/10.1111/1751-7915.13267)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: 6. M. Salehi, M. Abouali1, M. Wang, Z. Zhou, A.P. Nejadhashemi, J. Mitchell, S. Caskey and A. Whelton. Case study: Fixture water use and drinking water quality in a new residential green building, Chemosphere (2018) 195:80-89 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chemosphere.2017.11.070)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: . Weir, A. Mraz and J. Mitchell. An Advanced Legionellosis Risk Model Incorporating Epidemiological Evidence of Disease Burden, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Mitchell, K. Dean, S. Tamrakar, Y. Huang and J. Rose. Opportunistic pathogen dose-response models, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: K. Dean, Mark H. Weir and J. Mitchell.* "Development of a Dose-Response Model for Naegleria fowleri," Journal of Water and Health (in press)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A. Whelton, M. Salehi, M. Abouali, M. Wang, Z. Zhou, A.P. Nejadhashemi, J. Mitchell and S. Caskey. Water Chemistry and Micriology Changes as Plumbing Ages, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: B. Feighner and J. Mitchell. Discussion of Lessons Learned from Flint about Risk Assumptions in the Lead and Copper Rule, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-13, 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: A. Bope, M. Weir, A. Pruden, M. Morowitz, J. Mitchell and K. Dannemiller. "Translating Research to Policy at the NCSE 2017 Symposium "Microbiology of the Built Environment: Implications for Health and Design," Microbiome (in press)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2018 Citation: J. Mitchell,* L. Sifuentes, A. Wissler, S. Abd-Elmaksoud, G. Lopez and C. Gerba. "Ultraviolet light doses needed to inactivate bacteria and virus on fomite surfaces," Journal of Applied Microbiology (in press)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A. Chabrelie,? L. Zhang, G. Bornhorst and J. Mitchell. Horizontal Gene Transfer Under Dynamic System Conditions for Understanding Dose-Response Relationships for Antibiotic Resistance Risks, Society for Risk Analysis 2017 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (December 10-14, 2017) ?Student Merit Award Winner, Dose Response Specialty Group

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?1, New research case studies were developed as part fo the QMRA III training course. 2. A post-doctoral fellow was training as part of the antibiotic resistance field and microbial analysisstudy. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to submit the results of our field studies and bench studies on antibiotic resistance proliferation in the environment and exposure. We also plan to publish additional dose-response models for opportunistic pathogens and the gene transfer work.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1 Increase the availability of biologically plausible dose response models for emerging hazards. 1. A manuscript was published on the dose-response app developed last reporting period. 2. The new QMRAwiki website was designed and is undergoing beta-testing. 3. A manuscript was drafted for the nosema dose-response model for honey bees. 4. A manuscript for the development of a dose-response model for Ebola virus was submitted. It was used in a QMRA model for sewer workers, which was published. 5. Two manuscripts for opportunisitic pathogens were drafted. Objective 2 Investigate the utility of the risk assessment framework for characterizing risks associated with emerging hazards. 1. A manuscript was drafted for the antibiotic field study conducted last reporting period. It is undergoing final revisions and will be submitted within the next month. 2. A column study was designed to investigate fate, transport and persistence of resistant genes. 3. Preliminary data was collected at the bench scale on horizonatal gene transfer rates for resistant genes within systems under dynamic conditions. Objective 3 Integrate human and environmental health risk into decision making models to evaluate risk mitigation strategies 1. Over 100 data sets were analyzed for the Global Water Pathogens Project. The book chapter was reviewed and is awaiting publication on the web. This book is being used for santiation deign around the world. It is an online textbook that is an update of the classic text ""Sanitation and Disease: Health Aspects of Excreta and Wastewater Management" (Feachem et al. 1983)which currently remains the key reference point for the development of quantitative guidance for sanitation practices.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Maryam Salehi; Mohammad Abouali, Ph.D.; Mian Wang; Zhi Zhou, Ph.D.; Amir Pouyan Nejadhashemi, Ph.D.; Jade Mitchell, Ph.D.; Stephen Caskey; Case Study: Fixture Water Use and Drinking Water Quality in a New Residential Green Building. Chemosphere
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: M. Weir, J. Mitchell, A. Mraz, and J. Rose. QMRA Wiki: An educational tool for interdisciplinary teaching of risk modeling in engineering curriculums 2017 American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH (June 25-28, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: U. Adhikari, J. Mitchell, M. Weir, and J. Libarkin. Measuring the success of an educational program through box-and-arrow diagram: A case study of the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Interdisciplinary Instructional Institute 2017 American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH (June 25-28, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: E .Esfahanian, K. Dolan, J. Mitchell. Construction of a microbial kinetic model to capture Staphylococcus growth and decay on skin, 9th International Conference on Inverse Problems in Engineering, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. (May 23-26, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Carrera, J. Mitchell and L. Radonic. "Community Based Participatory Research and Citizen Science for Community Organizing around Water Quality and Water Shutoffs". 2017 American Sociological Association Annual Meeting/Water & Inequality Panel/Environment & Technology, Montreal, QC Canada (August 12-15, 2017) abstract accepted/under review
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Mitchell, M. Weir, J. Rose and J. Libarkin. The Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Interdisciplinary Instructional Institute (QMRAIII)  A Platform for Cross Disciplinary Training of Engineers with Social and Biological Scientists to Address Public Health Issues 2017 American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Annual Conference & Exposition, Columbus, OH (June 25-28, 2017)
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram and J. Mitchell. Pathogen Specific Persistence Modeling Data In: Global Water Pathogen Project, http://www.waterpathogens.org/
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: Antimicrobial Resistance and Risk Microbiology of the Built Environment: Implications for Health and Design. NCSE 2017: Integrating Environment and Health, 17th National Conference and Global Forum for Science, Policy, and the Environment, Washington, DC - January 24-26, 2017
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Legionella Legacy Threat and New Risk for Safe Drinking Water, Michigan Section American Water Works Association (AWWA), 2016 Fall Regional Meeting - Mt. Pleasant, MI - October 18, 2016
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: Measuring the Potential Impacts of the Unintentional Consequences Michigan State University, Center for Ingredient Safety Annual Meeting - October 4-6, 2016
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram, X. Guo, R. Stedfel, M. Johnson, A. Chabrelie and J. Mitchell. "Linking antibiotic usage to proliferation of antimicrobial resistance in the environment: A cases study of a MI dairy farm. AEESP Research and Education Conference, Ann Arbor, MI (June 20-22, 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram, Y. Kim and J. Mitchell. "A meta-analysis for estimating the persistence of HF183 marker in environmental waters," 2017 Water Microbiology Conference, Chapel Hill, NC (May 15-19 2017)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2016 Citation: J. Mitchell, J. Rose and D. Donahue. Expert Evaluation of the Water Crisis in Flint, Michigan, Society for Risk Analysis 2016 Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA (Dec. 11-15, 2016)
• Type: Websites Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: qmrawiki.canr.msu.edu
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: P. Hatami1, C. Gibbs, L.Rivers, and U. Adhikari1 and J. Mitchell.* Applicability of Benford's Law to Compliance Assessment of Self-Reported Wastewater Treatment Plant Discharge Data, Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (accepted September 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: M. Weir, J. Mitchell, W. Flynn, J. M. Pope. VizDR a Microbial Dose Response Visualization and Modeling Application for QMRA Modelers and Educators, Environmental Modelling & Software. (2017) 88: 74-83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.11.011
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Tamrakar, J. Henley, P. Gurian, C. Gerba, K. Enger1, J. Mitchell, J. Rose, Persistence analysis of poliovirus on three different types of fomites, Journal of Applied Microbiology (2017)122(2): 522530. doi: 10.1111/jam.13299
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: U. Adhikari1, M. H. Weir, K. Boehnke2, A. Chabrelie1, E. McKenzie2, L. Ikner2, M. Wang2, Q. Wang2, C. Haas, J. Rose, J. Mitchell. Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in a Hospital Setting: A Case Study Based on a South Korean Spreading Scenario. Risk Analysis (under review)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: J. Mitchell, J. B. Rose and C. N. Haas. Ebola Virus Dose Response Model Development from Primate Data
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: A. Chabrelie 1, J. Mitchell*, J. Rose, D. Charbonneau, and Y. Ishida Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces, Risk Analysis (submitted May 2016, accepted with revisions Nov. 2016, resubmitted April 2017)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Ashleigh Bope; Mark Weir; Amy Pruden; Michael Morowitz; Jade Mitchell; Karen Dannemiller. Translating Research to Policy at the NCSE 2017 Symposium "Microbiology of the Built Environment: Implications for Health and Design". Microbiome
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: S. Akram1, Y. Kim1, A. D. Wissler1, K. J. Dean1, J. B. Rose, and J Mitchell*. A meta-analysis for determining the persistence pattern of human-associated Bacteroidales populations in environmental waters Water Research

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems:Due to the staffing issues reported during the last reporting period, wediscontinued the work on the plant pathogen dose response modeling. Our proof of concept work is currently focused on the use of QMRA inentomology. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A postdoctoral research began workingon the project in March 2016. This researcher is contributing to our work to understandthe fate and transport of antimicrobial resistant genes in order to apply quantitative risk assessment techniques to this area of work. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to submit the manuscripts listed above. We have horizontal gene transfer studies planned to collect some preliminary and fundamental data on antibiotic resistant gene transfer potential as it relates to system dynamics.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1 Increase the availability of biologically plausible dose response models for emerging hazards. 1. A manuscript was suibmitted on the dose-response model app developed during the last reporting period. The model is currently available on the QMRAwiki (qmrawiki.canr.msu.edu). The paper is under review. 2. A new collaboration with a colleague in entomology resulted in development of a new dose-response model for honey bees affected by neonic pesticides. The model was used in a QMRA case study during the QMRAIII workshop at MSU from July 22 - Aug. 1, 2016. We are currently working on drafting this publication. Objective 2 Investigate the utility of the risk assessment framework for characterizing risks associated with emerging hazards. Apply established methods to produce estimates of risk for uncertain and uncharacterized hazards. 1. Data on the usage of antibiotics and the occurence of antibiotic resistant genes was collected through field sampling on a dairy farm. The samples were analyzed and we are currently drafiting a manuscript to elucidate the environmental pathways associated with manure application. 2. Through the collaboration mentioned in Obj. 1, we will evaluate the use of QMRA for understanding bee colony collapse - an exciting new application and pressing problem. Objective 3 Integrate human and environmental health risk into decision making models to evaluate risk mitigation strategies Evaluate antimicrobial resistance risk management mitigation scenarios 1. Based on the results of the study above, we will identify manure management practices which contribute to or reduce the proliferation of antimicrobial resistance in the farm environment antibiotic stewardship practices on dairy farms. The long-term objective of this research is to expand the framework to other issues related to human health and environmental risk assessment, which involve many unresolved uncertainties like the migration of nanoparticles in environmental media. 1. During the reporting period, our research has focused on evalauting the persistence of genes and pathogens in wastewater and biosolids. More than 50 data sets have been analyzed under the Global Water Pathogens Project. We are currently compiling and analyzing these results. This work will fill data gaps in exposure models. The data sets and models will be publically available on a new QMRAwiki which is under development.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: S. Tamrakar, J. Henley, P. Gurian, C. Gerba, K. Enger, J. Mitchell, and J. Rose. Persistence analysis of poliovirus on three different types of fomites, Journal of Applied Microbiology (in press)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: A. Chabrelie, J. Mitchell, J. Rose, D. Charbonneau, and Y. Ishida. Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces, Risk Analysis (under review)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: L. Sifuentes, J. Mitchell, A. Wissler, S. Abd-Elmaksoud, G. Lopez, and C. Gerba, Charles. Ultraviolet light doses needed to inactivate bacteria and virus on fomite surfaces, Journal of Applied Microbiology (under review)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: J. Mitchell and V. Misra, Selection of Surrogates for Biological Agents with Long-Term Environmental Persistence, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: M. Weir and J. Mitchell, Viz-DR: A Microbial Dose Response Visualization and Optimization Tool for QMRA Students and Novices, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: P. Hatami, J. Mitchell, C. Gibbs, L. Rivers. Application of Benfords Law in the development of Data Driven Decision Support for Environmental Enforcement, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: A. Chabrelie, J. Mitchell, J. Rose, D. Charbonneau, Y. Ishida. Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray, Society for Risk Analysis 2015 Annual Meeting, Arlington, VA (Dec. 6  10, 2015)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: A. Anandan, A. Chen, E. de-Graft Johnson, A. Gitter, P. L. Gurian, K. Hamilton A. Kumar, S. Kozak, J. Mitchell, C. Niquice, D. Singh, S. Baranidharan, and A. Zimmer-Faust. Identifying Data Gaps in Understanding Feasibility of Reuse of Nanoparticles-containing Wastewater and Un-Disinfected Biologically Stabilized Wastewater in Aquaculture, American Chemical Society, Philadelphia, PA, USA, August 22, 2016.

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The research will benefit multiple stakeholders to include regulators and policy makers, agricultural producers, communities, and consumers. Changes/Problems:The post-doctoral fellow hired last year to complete the plant pathogen project and publication goals was unable to accomplish all tasks due to competency issuesand interests. However, sufficient data was colelcted through literature review to develop preliminary models which will be completed in the coming years of the project. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?QMRA III - an intensive short course on QMRA for emerging hazards was conducted August 1-12, 2015. There were 32 participants from the US and abroad. The course was open to graduate students, early career faculty and government researchers and policy makers. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Presentations,Publications andWorkshops as noted in Products. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?1. Draft and submit work completed during this reporting period for publication. 2. Through MSU CHIA funding, work with collaborators to develop antibiotic resistance risk models and collect preliminary data for larger proposals. 3. Continue to expand risk assessment work to new emerging hazards through the NIh funded project. 4. Continue to sek additional funding to support these objectives.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: 1. Data was collected to evaluate plant-pathogen dose-response models. 2. Preliminary models were fit to a few data sets to assess fit. 3. New collaborators in the area of plant pathology and plant epidemiology were established. 4. A major grant proposal was submitted to support the development of plant pathogen models. Objective 2: 1. Funding to investigate risks associated with antibiotic resistance was obtained with collaborators through the MSU Center for Health Impacts of Agriculture. 2. A presentation was made to the Society of Risk Analysis World Congress on antibiotic resistance risk assessment (see Products for citation). 3. A major funding proposal was submitted to support antibiotic resistance risk research. 4. An NIH funded short course was conducted from August 1-12, 2015 to address risk assessment of emerging global health hazards. Five (5) case studies were completed with participants and leading scientists in the area of QMRAthat will lead to publications. 5. The PI became an editor for the Global Water Pathogens Project, a UNESCO and Dow Corporation funded project to develop an updated information source for water sanitation across the world. The PI will be responsible for data collection and development of new models that can be used fo risk assessment. Objective 3: 1, Through collaboration with Conservation Criminology, a study is being conducted to develop a risk based decision framework for environmental agencies to access discharge data of multiple pollutants. Presentations and a manuscript from this work was completed during the reproting period.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Mitchell, J., "Understanding the Challenge of Antibiotic Resistant Risks." Society for Risk Analysis World Congress. Matrix @ Biopolis, Singapore. 19-23 July 2015
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Misra, V. and Mitchell, J. "Comparing the decay of Bacillus Spores by beta regression." Internship in Global Engineering and Advanced Research (in GEAR)Research Symposium. Michigan State University, College of Engineering, East Lansing, MI. 8 July 2015
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hatami, P., Mitchell, J., Gibbs, C., Rivers, L., Dempsey, T. "Assessment of Applicability of Benfords Law to Detection of Mishandling in Self-reported Discharge Data of Wastewater Treatment Plant." Environmental Science and Public Policy Program Research Symposium. Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI. 1 April 2015
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gibbs, C., Rivers, L., Dempsey, T., Mitchell, J."Environmental Regulation and Enforcement: Structures, Processes and the Use of Data for Fraud Detection." Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (accepted)

Progress 12/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Research findings were disseminated to both accadmic and professional audiences through conference presentations. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been disseminated through conference preseantations and papers as documented in the 'Product' section of this report. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? 1. Experimentally test dose response for plant pathogens in the lab to create a new data set. 2. Publish the plant epidemiology literature review. 3. Complete proof of concept modeling. 4. Submit proposals to support both plant dose-response and antibiotic resistance risk assessment tasks.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1: A post-doctoral research fellow was hired to collect preliminary data. We are performing a literature review on plant epidemiology, plant pathogen dose-response models and building database for proof of concept modeling. Objective 2 and 3: New collaborations were established within Biosystems Engineering and within the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife. Proposals were submitted to EPAto support collaborative work under this objective for risk assocaiated with stream health and invasive species, respectively. All objectives: Funding was secured through the NIH which support all objectives under this project as well as an integrated education and outreach training program.

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: *J. Mitchell, M.Weir, W. van Osch, and J. Rose. The QMRA Wiki: A Social Media Tool for Interdisciplinary and Interagency Collaboration for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA. ISBN: 978-88-9035-744-2 (2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: *B. Murali and J. Mitchell.The Effect of Recovery on Modeling Inactivation of Bacillus Spores on HVAC Filters. In: Ames, D.P., Quinn, N.W.T., Rizzoli, A.E. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, June 15-19, San Diego, California, USA. ISBN: 978-88-9035-744-2 (2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: B. Murali, and J. Mitchell, Modeling the Persistence of Microbes with Long-Term Survivability in the Environment, ASABE Annual International Meeting, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (July 2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: J. Mitchell. Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products in the Environment - do we care? 63rd Michigan Onsite Wastewater Conference (January 7-9, 2014) [Invited]
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: B. Murali, and J. Mitchell, Modeling the Recovery of Bacillus Spores from HVAC Filters, Sixth Annual Graduate Academic Conference, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (March 2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: B. Murali, and J. Mitchell, Recovery of Bacillus anthracis Spores from HVAC Filters Using Two Quantification Techniques, Engineering Graduate Research Symposium, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI (March 2014)
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: C. Gibbs. L. Rivers, T. Dempsey, J. Mitchell and M. Gammans, Unpacking the Black Box: A Case Study of Environmental Enforcement American Society of Criminology (November 2014) (Accepted Abstract)