Progress 12/24/13 to 09/30/18
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience has included a wide array of domestic and international agricultural stakeholders and academics. The dissemination of this research has reached agricultural producers, cooperative members, agricultural leaders, policymakers, and international commodity procurers, as well as both researchers/instructors and undergraduate/graduate students. These individuals have been reached through presentations, workshops, and publications. Specifically, on-going research findings have been shared at the European Agricultural Economic Association, Western Agricultural Economics Association's Annual Meeting, Northern Crops Institute, and NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunities for students and researchers to attend the Western Agricultural Economics Association's Annual Meeting (2017/2018) and the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting (2017). (Chad Te Slaa, M.S. in Economics) How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The research results have been disseminated to interested parties by presentations and publications. In addition, in February/March 2018 we hosted "Managing the Margin" workshops for ag producers to help them understand marketing strategies and alternative marketing contracts. We also provided webinars on the same topic in July and August of 2018. Attendees included ag producers, policy makers, ag students, and ag lenders. Total attendance of all the workshops and webinars was approximately 100-150 individuals. Lisa Elliott was the lead presenter and Matt Elliott assisted in portions of the presentation on derivative contracts, network analysis, and strategies that included derivative contracts. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Goal 1: (80% accomplished) Objective: Determine characteristic values for Hard Red Spring Wheat in the Upper High Plains. A hedonic spatial model was specified following the work of Parcell and Stiegert (1998). The mean and standard deviation of protein marginal values were $0.2917/bushel and $0.1356 /bushel, respectively. A 90% confidence interval was estimated to be between $0.209 and $0.479 /bushel. Although this study indicates a higher marginal value of protein, it also shows a wider confidence interval for the marginal value of protein as compared to Parcell and Stiegert's estimates. The wider confidence interval and greater variability around the point estimate, found in this this study, indicates a greater uncertainty of premium values for protein. One important implication is that wheat producers' varietal choice decisions depends on the yields, overall price, and characteristic price volatility at the time of planting. Goal 2: Alternative Oilseed Crops Potential Profitability (85% accomplished) Objective: Determine potential profitability of growing alternative oilseed crops in South Dakota. Determine alternative oilseed commodity characteristics values. Can Camelina and Carinata be Profitable in South Dakota? Net returns were simulated for all traditional crops and camelina and carinata in South Dakota and compared using stochastic dominance risk analysis. To compare the potential camelina and carinata farm-level profits to traditional crops, NASS county yield data was utilized and farm level risk for traditional crops was estimated using Miranda's 1991 implied volatility procedure. The findings suggest that the strongest potential for adoption of camelina and carinata exists in western South Dakota and provided farm level risk reducing benefits in eastern South Dakota through diversification. Specifically, an increase of $0.14 in price per pound or increase of 849 pounds per acre in yields would make Spring Camelina comparable to traditional crops' profitability in Brookings County, South Dakota. Economics Risk Impacts of Modeling Crop Yields with Limited Historical Data: GRKS or APEX-EPIC This study compared the economic risk of modeling camelina and carinata yield distributions using a GRKS distribution (Richardson, Schumann, and Feldman, 2008) compared to a multivariate empirical (MVE) distribution (Richardson, Klose, and Gray, 2000) simulated using the Agriculture Productivity Environmental Extender Model (APEX) model. The findings of this study suggest that these alternative crops may be more preferred than traditional crops for certain soil types contrasting in certain instances with the study examining profitability at an aggregate county level including all soil types. This indicates the importance of performing risk analysis research on a more micro-level to provide producers with better information to make their decisions on potentially adopting alternative crops. Goal 3: Formation and Performance of Alliances and Institutional Arrangements in order to Market Value-Added Characteristics (95% accomplished) Objective: Determine potential performance of novel institutional arrangements and contracts to market value-added characteristics. Marketing Alliances This research has examined the effectiveness of a government-sponsored beef alliance program, South Dakota Certified Beef, and the potential formation of sustainability marketing alliances through a game-theoretic framework. The South Dakota Certified Beef (SDCB) study addressed the program's origin and original intent; the program's development, status, and future potential by obtaining archival data; and conducting focus groups with cattle producer program participants. Unfortunately, as the focus groups demonstrated, the lack of a processing plant continues to be the largest hindrance to the program's success since a requirement of enrolled cattle was to be processed in-state. Additional market research would identify the specific beef qualities the market demands and strategic partners' willingness-to-pay for those differentiated products. Identifying strategic partners in the supply chain from feedlots to processors to retailers could increase market coordination. The level of the program's flexibility should also be determined, with the potential for producer input and adaptability in response to changes in market conditions. Another research project examined the potential for multi-stakeholder sustainability alliances (MSSAs) to reduce externalities in the agri-food sector in a game-theoretic perspective. This research described the new dimension to market power, and quantified the governance rules effects to bargaining power and sustainability outcomes in MSSAs. Sustainability initiatives were simulated in U.S. corn and soybean production using the APEX model. Shapley values were then estimated to quantify bargaining power changes given alternative governance rules in a MSSA. The results demonstrated that with transferable eco-label benefits and proper governance rules, MSSAs can achieve cooperative sustainable outcomes. Performance of the Producer Accumulator in Corn and Soybean Commodity Markets This research quantified risk reduction and performance of the producer accumulator contract in corn and soybean markets. To quantify performance, we used three alternative theoretical pricing models to estimate historical producer accumulator contract specifications in corn and soybean markets. If the producer adopts an accumulator, the average price the producer would expect to receive would: 1) slightly underperform the average price they would receive with a long futures portfolio in corn, and 2) slightly outperform long futures in soybeans. Nevertheless, the accumulator significantly reduces daily risk compared to the long futures portfolio. Indeed, producer accumulator portfolios produced average daily Sharpe ratios exceeding all other simulated risk management strategies in corn and soybeans on an average annual and average aggregate basis from 2008-2017. Consequently, the producer accumulator portfolio offered corn and soybean producers the best risk adjusted return to hedge production during this time-frame. Predictive Analytics Understanding of Cooperative Membership Heterogeneity and Sustainability This research used data from USDA-ERS and ARMS joined with the USDA-Rural Development cooperative financial data at the state level. Membership heterogeneity was found to be less important in understanding state-level cooperative gross business volume compared to value-added at the farm-level. In addition, cooperative member diversity in farm size was a more important variable in forecasting a factor of cooperative sustainability. A general conclusion is that cooperative member heterogeneity may be more relevant in understanding the rate of consolidation of cooperatives in the U.S. In the near-term, we found that cooperatives can be sustainable because of important positive macro-factors. Managing Agricultural Value-at-Risk (VaR) This research has been focused on enabling agricultural producers to quantify and manage their value-at-risk (VaR) given larger, more volatile farm portfolios and the emergence of complex grain marketing contracts. This included a comparison of new generation grain marketing contracts across firms, along with relating those risk management strategies to similar futures/options strategies. To measure value-at-risk (VaR) a combination of risk modeling approaches have been used (historical simulation/Monte Carlo simulation /variance-covariance approach). Risk of price, yield, and other relationships with covariates that have interacting dependence structures were estimated and simulated using vine copulas that provide the flexibility to more accurately model these relationships. The VaR models that have been developed provide risk assessments that enable firms to better understand their risk exposure.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Elliott, L. M., Saleh, S., Elliott, M. S. (2018). Can Camelina and Carinata be Profitable in South Dakota? Journal of the ASFMRA, 192-209. https://asfmra.dcatalog.com/v/2018-Journal-of-ASFMRA/#page=1
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Elliott, M. S., Elliott, L. M., Van der Sluis, E. (2018). A Predictive Analytics Understanding of Cooperative Membership Heterogeneity and Sustainability. Sustainability, 10(6), 2048. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/6/2048
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience has included a wide array of domestic and international agricultural stakeholders and academics. The dissemination of this research has reached agricultural producers, cooperative members, agricultural leaders, policy-makers,and international commodity procurers, as well as, both researchers/instructors, and undergraduate/graduate students. These individuals have been reached through presentations, workshops, and publications. Specifically, on-going research findings have been shared at the Western Agricultural Economics Association's Annual Meeting, Northern Crops Institute,and NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Thisproject has provided opportunities for students and researchers to attend theWestern Agricultural Economics Association's Annual Meeting (2017) and the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting (2017). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The research results have been disseminated to interested parties by presentations, publications, and workshops. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Goal 1: Hedonic Hard Red Spring Wheat Characteristic Values Objective: Determine characteristic values for Hard Red Spring Wheat in the Upper High Plains. We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on the research. Goal 2: Alternative Oilseed Crops Potential Profitability Objective:Determine potential profitability of growing alternative oilseed crops in South Dakota. Determine alternative oilseed commodity characteristics vlaues. -Economics Risk Impacts of Modeling Crop Yields with Limited Historical Data: GRKS or APEX-EPIC based Distributions for Camelina and Carinata? We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on the research. -Can Camelina and Carinata be Profitable in South Dakota? We will be developing extension publications based on the research. -Characteristic Values for Camelina and Carinata We plan to administer the survey and perform the analysis of the data obtained. Goal 3: Formation and Performance of Alliances and Institutional Arrangements in order to Market Value-Added Characteristics Objective: Determine potential performance of novel institional arrangements and contracts to market value-added characteristics. -Effectiveness of a government-sponsored beef alliance program, South Dakota Certified Beef and the potential formation of sustainability marketing alliances We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on the research. -Performance of the Producer Accumulator in Corn and Soybean Commodity Markets We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on the research.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Progress was made on the following research sub-areas: examining the characteristic values for hard red spring wheat for the Upper High Plains region, examining the potential economic feasibility and risk of growing alternative oilseed crops in South Dakota, and examining the formation and performance of alliances and institutional arrangement in order to market value-added characteristics. Goal 1: Hedonic Hard Red Spring Wheat Characteristic Values (80% accomplished) Objective: Determine characteristic values for Hard Red Spring Wheat in the Upper High Plains. The study investigates the effect of wheat characteristics and spatial quality levels for the Upper High Plains hard red spring wheat growing region over the period from 1998 to 2012. Data for this study were comprised of hard red spring wheat daily prices and quality grading data on the four growing regions -North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota. A hedonic spatial model was specified following the work of Parcell and Stiegert (1998). Almost all observations for protein were significantly different from zero and of the expected positive sign. The mean and standard deviation of protein marginal values were $0.2917/bushel and $0.1356 /bushel, respectively. A 90% confidence interval was estimated to be between $0.209 and $0.479 /bushel. This study shows that the marginal value of protein had increased as compared to Parcell and Stiegert's (1996) estimates. Specifically, Parcell and Stiegert found the mean and standard deviation of DNSW were $0.060/bushel and $0.0045/bushel, respectively. Although this study indicates a higher marginal value of protein, it also shows a wider confidence interval for the marginal value of protein as compared to Parcell and Stiegert's estimates which are based on a smaller sample size. Parcell and Stiegert estimated a confidence interval between $0.046 /bushel and $0.074 /bushel for DNSW. The wider confidence interval and greater variability around the point estimate, found in this this study, indicates a greater uncertainty of premium values for protein. One important implication is that wheat producers' varietal choice decisions depends on the yields and price volatility at the time of planting as well as wheat characteristics. Wheat producers have to make important decisions about the varieties they will plant, the quality characteristics of the type; at the same time are concerned with maximizing profitability of their operations while trying to mitigate financial risk. We have begun to develop a draft manuscript for this research to submit to a journal. Goal 2: Alternative Oilseed Crops Potential Profitability (60% accomplished) Objective:Determine potential profitability of growing alternative oilseed crops in South Dakota. Determine alternative oilseed commodity characteristics vlaues. -Economics Risk Impacts of Modeling Crop Yields with Limited Historical Data: GRKS or APEX-EPIC based Distributions for Camelina and Carinata? This study compares the economic risk of modeling camelina and carinata yield distributions using a GRKS distribution (Richardson, Schumann, and Feldman, 2008) compared to a multivariate empirical (MVE) distribution (Richardson, Klose, and Gray, 2000) simulated using the Agriculture Productivity Environmental Extender Model (APEX) model. The preliminary findings of this study suggest that these alternative crops may be more preferred than traditional crops for certain soil types contrasting in certain instances with the study examining profitability at an aggregate county level including all soil types. This indicates the importance of performing risk analysis research on a more micro-level to provide producers with better information to make their decisions on potentially adopting alternative crops. -Can Camelina and Carinata be Profitable in South Dakota? Net returns were simulated for all traditional crops and camelina and carinata in South Dakota and compared using stochastic dominance risk analysis. To compare the potential camelina and carinata farm-level profits to traditional crops, NASS county yield data was utilized and farm level risk for traditional crops was estimated using Miranda's 1991 implied volatility procedure. The findings suggest that the strongest potential for adoption of camelina and carinata exists in western South Dakota and provided farm level risk reducing benefits in eastern South Dakota. This research was submitted to a journal for potential publication. -Characteristic Values for Camelina and Carinata A draft survey has been developed to be administered to processors and end-usersto examine the willingness-to-pay for camelina and carinata co-product (oil/meal) characteristic attributes. Goal 3: Formation and Performance of Alliances and Institutional Arrangements in order to Market Value-Added Characteristics (75% accomplished) Objective: Determine potential performance of novel institional arrangements and contracts to market value-added characteristics. Elevator grain contracts are offered for both traditional and alternative crops. The research explains the mechanics behind accumulator contracts, and the risk reduction and performance in corn and soybean markets. -Performance of the Producer Accumulator in Corn and Soybean Commodity Markets This research quantifies risk reduction and performance of the producer accumulator contract in corn and soybean markets. To quantify performance, we use three alternative theoretical pricing models to estimate historical producer accumulator contract specifications in corn and soybean markets. We find the average price the producer would expect to receive adopting an accumulator to slightly underperform the average price they would receive with a long futures portfolio in corn and slightly outperform long futures in soybeans. Nevertheless, the accumulator significantly reduces daily risk compared to the long futures portfolio. Indeed, producer accumulator portfolios produced average daily Sharpe ratios exceeding all other simulated risk management strategies in corn and soybeans on an average annual and average aggregate basis from 2008-2017. Consequently, the producer accumulator portfolio offered corn and soybean producers the best risk adjusted return to hedge production during this time-frame.
Publications
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Te Slaa, Chad, "Performance of the Producer Accumulator in Crop and Soybean Commodity Markets" (2017). South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Slaa, C. T., L. Elliott, M. Elliott, and Z. Wang. 2017. Performance of the Producer Accumulator in Corn and Soybean Commodity Markets. Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. [http://www.farmdoc.illinois.edu/nccc134/conf_2017/pdf/TeSlaa_Elliott_Elliott_Wang_NCCC-134_2017.pdf].
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Elliott, M. S., Elliott, L. M., Western Agricultural Economic Association, "Economics Risk Impacts of Modeling Crop Yields with Limited Historical Data: GRKS or APEX-EPIC Based Distributions for Camelina and Carinata?," Lake Tahoe, NV, United States. (July 11, 2017).
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Elliott, L. (2017). Basic Hedging Principles and Options Use by Importers Grain Procurement Management for Importer Course, Northern Crops Institute, Fargo, ND, September 12, 2017.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Elliott, L., S. Saleh, and M. Elliott. (2017). Can Camelina and Carinata Be Profitable in South Dakota? Under Review at the Journal of the ASFMRA.
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Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience has included a wide array of domestic and international agricultural stakeholders and academics. The dissemination of this research has reached agricultural producers, cooperative members, agricultural leaders, and international commodity procurers, as well as, both domestic and international, academic researchers/instructors, and undergraduate/graduate students. These individuals have been reached through presentations, workshops, and publications. Specifically on-going research findings has been shared to the European Agricultural Economic Association, Northern Crops Institute, agricultural producers, agricultural industry leaders, and policy-makers who attended presentations and workshops . Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The research results have been disseminated to interested parties by presentations, publications, training events,and workshops. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Goal 1: Hedonic Hard Red Spring Wheat Characteristic Values We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on this research. Goal 2: Alternative Oilseed Crops Potential Profitability We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on this research. Next steps will include modeling camelina and carinata yields across South Dakota using the APEX-EPIC model that utilizes agronomic factors, weather, and soil information. Additional calibrations to the APEX-EPIC yield simulations will be made. The simulated yields from the APEX-EPIC model will be compared to the historical based crop yield distributions. In addition, the APEX-EPIC model crop yield distributions will be incorporated into the profitability analysis allowing for comparisons to be made to the historical based crop yield distributions. A conjoint-based processor/end-user survey will be developed in order to identify the value of the characteristics of the by-products of camelina and carinata. Goal 3: Formation and Performance of Alliances and Institutional Arrangements in order to Market Value-Added Characteristics We plan to submit this research to a journal for publication. In addition, we will be developing extension publications based on this research. Models and techniques will be developed to simulate over-the-counter market derivate contracts to hedge corn and soybean production.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
This project can be divided into three research sub-areas related to the marketing of commodity quality characteristics. First, the values for various characteristics of hard red spring wheat willbeidentified for the Upper High Plains region. Secondly, the potential economic feasibility and risks of growing alternative oilseed crops in South Dakota will beanalyzed. The third sub-area is the study of formation and performance of alliances and institutional arrangements that can be utilized to bring stakeholders along the supply chain together to effectively market value-added characteristics, such as;quality, and production-based, and sustainability characteristics. Goal 1:Hedonic Hard Red Spring Wheat Characteristic Values The study investigates the effect of wheat characteristics and spatial quality levels for the Upper High Plains hard red spring wheat growing region over the period from 1998 to 2012. Data for this study were comprised of hard red spring wheat daily prices and quality grading data on the four growing regions -North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana and Minnesota. A hedonic spatial model was specified following the work of Parcell and Stiegert (1998). Almost all observations for protein were significantly different from zero and of the expected positive sign. The mean and standard deviation of protein marginal values were $0.2917/bushel and $0.1356 /bushel, respectively. A 90% confidence interval was estimated to be between $0.209 and $0.479 /bushel. This study shows that the marginal value of protein had increased as compared to Parcell and Stiegert's (1996) estimates. Specifically, Parcell and Stiegert found the mean and standard deviation of DNSW were $0.060/bushel and $0.0045/bushel, respectively. Although this study indicates a higher marginal value of protein, it also shows a wider confidence interval for the marginal value of protein as compared to Parcell and Stiegert's estimates which are based on a smaller sample size. Parcell and Stiegert estimated a confidence interval between $0.046 /bushel and $0.074 /bushel for DNSW. The wider confidence interval and greater variability around the point estimate, found in this this study, indicates a greater uncertainty of premium values for protein. One important implication is that wheat producers' varietal choice decisions depends on the yields and price volatility at the time of planting as well as wheat characteristics. Wheat producers have to make important decisions about the varieties they will plant, the quality characteristics of the type; at the same time are concerned with maximizing profitability of their operations while trying to mitigate financial risk. Goal 2: Alternative Oilseed Crops Potential Profitability This study will examine the potential profitability of camelina and carinata compared to traditional crops, primarily in western South Dakota, and include potential insurance mechanisms that would reduce risk. The first objective is to examine the potential profitability of growing camelina and carinata compared to traditional crops grown in different South Dakota regions by incorporating price and yield risks. Cost-return budgets were developed based on university budgets, and agronomists' and industry opinions for South Dakota regions. Stochastic variables included were yields, crop prices, and fertilizer prices. In addition, potential insurance mechanisms for camelina and carinata were incorporated into the simulation analysis. The simulated net returns were used in stochastic dominance analysis. The risk models were developed and analyzed for Brookings, Hughes, Pennington, and Perkins counties in South Dakota. In addition, the county level yield information for competing crops was adjusted to be more representative of farm level yield variation. Preliminary results show that carinata requires less increase in yield or price to be competitive, compared to camelina. The necessary preliminary inputs (e.g., agronomic, weather, soil, etc.) were gathered and a model program was developed in order run the APEX-EPIC model to simulate yields for Camelina and Carinata across South Dakota. These results will inform producers on the potential profitability of camelina and carinata, without known yield histories, compared to traditional crops from a risk perspective. This information will be used by producers to decide whether they want to grow these crops and potential contracting terms needed to mitigate risk and provide sufficient incentive. By incorporating the potential insurance mechanisms into the analysis for camelina and carinata will allow market participants to better understand the potential risk-reducing benefits of the insurance products. In addition, this information can inform buyers on potential contracting terms needed to incentivize production. Goal 3: Formation and Performance of Alliances and Institutional Arrangements in order to Market Value-Added Characteristics This sub-area of research has examined the effectiveness of a government-sponsored beef alliance program, South Dakota Certified Beef and the potential formation of sustainability marketing alliances through a game-theoretic framework. The South Dakota Certified Beef (SDCB) study addresses the program's origin and original intent, the program's development, current status, and future potential by obtaining archival data and conducting focus groups with cattle producer program participants. SDCB had the potential to provide mutual benefits to cattle producers and the South Dakota economy. Using credibility offered through the South Dakota Certified trademark and UDSA verification, producers would receive premiums when marketing the high-quality beef. Meanwhile, the South Dakota economy would benefit through the increased jobs generated by growth in beef processing within the state. Unfortunately, as the focus groups demonstrated, the lack of a processing plant continues to be the largest hindrance to the program's success. The requirement of enrolled cattle being processed in-state was intended to boost the South Dakota economy and increase communication along the supply chain. Without the in-state processing plant, SDCB did not develop to the stage where the program could take advantage of these results. Market studies would enable program administers to determine if market demand for SDCB exists, discover potential premiums, and identify the trends of the factors that influence those premiums. This information could shed light on the potential strength of those premiums and provide indicators to monitor potential changes to the premiums in the future. Additional market research would identify the specific beef qualities the market demands and strategic partners' willingness-to-pay for those differentiated products. Identifying strategic partners in the supply chain from feedlots to processors to retailers could increase market coordination. The level of the program's flexibility should also be determined, with the potential for producer input and adaptability in response to changes in market conditions. Another research project examines the potential for multi-stakeholder sustainability alliances (MSSAs) to reduce externalities in the agri-food sector in a game-theoretic perspective. This research describes the new dimension to market power, and quantifies the governance rules effects to bargaining power and sustainability outcomes in MSSAs. Sustainability initiatives are simulated in U.S. corn and soybean production using the APEX model. Shapley values are then estimated to quantify bargaining power changes given alternative governance rules in a MSSA. The preliminary results demonstrate with transferable eco-label benefits, and proper governance rules, MSSAs can achieve cooperative sustainable outcomes.
Publications
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Danso, Jacquiline, "U.S. Competition of Hard Spring Wheat Characteristics" (2015). Theses and Dissertations. 272.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Elliott, M. and L. Elliott. "Governance Rules and Bargaining Power in Sustainability Alliances" presented at EAAE-153 New Dimensions of Market Power and Bargaining in the Agri-food Sector, Gaeta, Italy. June 9-10, 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Saleh, S. and L. Elliott. "Potential Profitability of Camelina and Carinata compared to Traditional Crops in South Dakota" presented at CAEA & WAEA Annual Meeting, Victoria, Canada. June 21-24, 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Elliott, L. (2015). SD Oil Seed Initiative- Economics- Identifying potential producer revenues for camelina and carinata compared to traditional crops from a risk perspective Ag Horizons Conferences, Pierre, SD, December 1, 2015.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Elliott, L. (2015). Basic Hedging Principles and Options Use by Importers Grain Procurement Management for Importer Course, Northern Crops Institute, Fargo, ND, September 13, 2016.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Peterson-Schaefer, C., "Case Study-Exploring the South Dakota Certified Beef Program through Focus Groups" (2015). Plan B Paper.
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?I have been advising amaster's student who has been working on her thesis related to the characteristic values of Hard Red Spring Wheat. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?During, the next reporting period it is expected that a research publication will be completed relating to the characteristic values of Hard Red Spring Wheat. In addition, it is planned that the wheat characteristic results will start to be disseminated to targeted audiences. I plan to begin developing a conjoint-analysis processor/end-user survey that will be utilized to measure the characteristic values of the by-products ofcamelina and carinata.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The evolution of more coordinated organization structure will drive the importance of understanding the underlying value of commodity quality characteristics and its influence on overall commodity prices. One segment of this project relates to the wheat industry. There is a changing landscape in the wheat market from the emergence of foreign ownership of local elevators, increased consolidation in the milling sector, technology advancement, and changes in transportation. The focus of this research is a preliminary study of marginal values for wheat characteristics to inform future research on measuring the effects of structural changes on marginal values. Thus, this study examines hard red spring wheat marginal characteristics values using more recent data during these structural changes. The results suggest that protein is an important characteristic of HRSW with a premium of $0.308/bushel. Although this study indicates a higher marginal value of protein, it also shows greater uncertainty of premium values for proteinas compared to previous estimates conducted with data, prior to many changes and integration in the market landscape. In addition, results indicate that discounts and premiums for HRSW characteristics in a specific district can be affected by the quality characteristics of other states; thus, indicating the importance of spatial competition for protein and test weight between states. This research demonstrates the tradeoffs and risks that producers face with respect to wheat varietal selection decisions. End-users that place a higher valuation on quality characteristics, could consider offering greater incentive mechanisms to producers and elevators that offset their risk associated to certain variety selections and maintain segregation. These findings can inform end-users on how to structure appropriate incentive mechanisms to offset producer and elevator risks. The major goal of determining commodity characteristics for Hard Red Spring Wheat and vegetable oils has not yet been met. Objective- Determine commodity characteristic values using demand characteristic analysis for commodities of importance to South Dakota. The characteristic values for Hard Red Spring Wheat are examined. Major activities completed: An empirical model has been run on the complied dataset. A research publication draft has been developed explaining the research project and results. Discussion of results: The results suggest that protein is an important characteristic of HRSW with a premium of $0.308/bushel. Although this study indicates a higher marginal value of protein, it also shows a wider confidence interval for the marginal value of protein as compared to Parcell and Stiegert's (1998) estimates. The wider confidence interval found in this study indicates a greater uncertainty of premium values for protein. In addition, results indicate that premiums for protein and test weight for a specific district in a state can be affected by protein and test weight of other states. We therefore, conclude that discounts and premiums for HRSW characteristics in a specific district can be affected by the quality characteristics of other states; thus, indicating the importance of spatial competition for protein and test weight between states. Key outcomes:A research publication draft has been written about this project.
Publications
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Progress 12/24/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
1. -A data set that include quality characteristics, price, and production information was developed to analyze the characteristics values for Hard Spring Wheat that spans from 1998-2013 that includes the states of Minnesota, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Montana. An empirical model has been specified to analyze the characteristics values for Hard Red Spring Wheat. Developed preliminary findings relating to the characteristics values of Hard Red Spring Wheat along with information indicating regional and state spatial relationships relating to quality and production levels. These preliminary results suggest that protein has become more highly valued over time since previous studies with data from the 70s to early 90s. The major goal of determining commodity characteristics for Hard Red Spring Wheat and vegetable oils has not yet been met
Publications
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