Progress 10/01/22 to 09/30/23
Outputs
PROGRESS REPORT Objectives (from AD-416): Objective 1: Assess and improve sustainable intensification strategies of crop and integrated crop-livestock systems for farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes. Sub-objective 1A: Quantify long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 1B: Develop management and placement strategies for improving ecosystem service provisioning through diverse agricultural landscapes that integrate crop and livestock systems. Objective 2: Determine the sensitivity of farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes to climate variability and develop strategies for adapting agriculture to current and projected changes. Sub-objective 2A: Quantify effects of projected climate and potential adaptation strategies on long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through the use of farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 2B: Characterize the landscape-scale responses and trade- offs of agricultural ecosystem services, given projected climate and potential adaptation scenarios. Approach (from AD-416): Agriculture faces increasing demands for productivity and efficiency that must be balanced against pressures to continually improve stewardship of natural resources. Climate models from 1950 through 2100 predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Northeast, further complicating agricultural sustainability planning. Our research focuses on whole farms, watersheds, and landscapes to quantitatively evaluate both long-term sustainabilities and broader environmental impacts of various agricultural production systems under current and predicted climate. We will evaluate alternative production strategies based on economic viability, implementation feasibility, and impacts to ecosystem services and disservices. We are concerned with not only provisioning ecosystem services such as dairy, beef, and crop production but also supporting and regulating services like nutrient cycling and landscape diversity. Disservices from agriculture include greenhouse gas emissions and other nutrient losses to air and water. Our two objectives assess ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) agricultural production strategies for sustainable intensification at multiple scales. The (A) sub-objectives are farm-scale in detail and industry-wide in scope. The (B) sub-objectives focus on landscape-scale hydrology and ecology within the Northeast to inform both local and multi- regional research efforts. Objective 1 assesses strategies under recent climate conditions (1980-2005), and corroborates our modeling tools in representing BAU and ASP strategies. To be most valuable, however, developed strategies and tools must be successful under future climate conditions. Objective 2 corroborates our tools under historical climate (1960-1980) and applies them under future mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2080-2100) climate projections, assessing ASP strategies that most effectively meet the challenges and opportunities of future climate. We will collaborate with larger USDA-led research networks, including the Long-Term Agroecological Research network (LTAR), Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and Dairy Agroecosystems Working Group (DAWG). Such networking provides expertise and data on outcomes from management strategies for cropping and integrated crop-livestock systems that will be used to confirm results of the first objective and provide a basis for extrapolation of future systems for the second. We will analyze data using both simple and complex process-based simulation models, life cycle assessment, and advanced computational techniques. With an emphasis on sustainable intensification in accord with climate predictions, our research will support systems-level understandings of current and potential agricultural systems in the Northeast, and how these can continue to produce food and fuel in the future. Outcomes of this research will support farmers directly through management strategies and decision support tools, and will provide scientifically-valid data to federal and state programs aimed at improving nutrient management, conservation, and resource use efficiency. In Sub-Objective 1.A, National Life Cycle Assessments (LCA) of dairy and beef cattle production in the U.S. were completed, providing baselines for comparison to future assessments and the evaluation of mitigation strategies. Average annual greenhouse gas emissions, reactive nitrogen losses, fossil energy use, and blue water consumption were determined and compared to reported national inventories. The beef cattle production data were also combined with packing, processing, marketing, consumption, and waste handling data to produce a cradle to grave LCA of multiple environmental impact categories using an integration of IFSM and Open LCA software systems. Perhaps the greatest concern of all environmental impacts for both dairy and beef systems is that of ammonia emissions; these industries combined may emit about half the total ammonia emissions estimated to be coming from the nation. Freshwater consumption is also an important concern for future sustainability of these industries, particularly in the dry western regions. Production systems using desert adapted Rarámuri Criollo cattle and crossbreds of Criollo with Angus cattle were studied to determine potential environmental and economic benefits compared to the traditional Angus cattle production systems currently used in the arid southwest region. Crossbred cattle production with grass finishing in the Southwest or in the Northern Plains outperformed on most environmental variables with lower production costs but this option emitted more greenhouse gas than grain finishing of Angus cattle in the region. As the climate in the southwest region becomes drier in the future, use of Criollo cattle and their crossbreds can provide more sustainable cattle production systems for producing food in this region. A comprehensive assessment was completed on the environmental sustainability of grass-based dairy farms in Pennsylvania. We found that this production strategy can provide environmental benefits to a local watershed, but due to a lower efficiency in milk production compared to larger confinement farms, this strategy increases the aggregate environmental impacts of regional and global supply chains. Using a cover crop, interseeded grass crop, or small grain double crop with corn production on Pennsylvania dairy farms provided reductions in sediment, nitrogen, and phosphorus losses. Benefits varied across the different management approaches used on farms, with interseeding of annual grass in the growing corn crop providing the greatest reduction. Only double cropping small grain silage with corn silage increased feed production sufficiently to provide economic benefit to the farm. Use of a decanter centrifuge to extract phosphorus from manure on a Pennsylvania dairy farm provided a better ratio of nitrogen and phosphorus contents for use on nearby cropland and reduced transport costs for nutrients applied to more distant cropland. In Sub-Objective 1.B, simulation models and economic assessments were conducted at the crop, farm, and watershed scale to explore system-wide impacts of sustainable intensification on ecosystem services in northeastern U.S. Results demonstrated the importance of best management practice planning at the local level to address both local and regional concerns within the Chesapeake Bay catchment. High-risk landscape characteristics predicted by the Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) were ground-truthed and overlain with high-risk areas predicted by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results drove prioritization guidelines for cost-effective, watershed-level, management practice implementation. Additionally, by focusing on hillslope position and topography while simulating infiltration- and saturation-based flows, continuous water-quality modeling of multi-year rotations was used to evaluate and modify Pennsylvania Phosphorus Index version 2. This work fed into a national effort between ARS and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to identify and upgrade tools for conservation planners to organize their mitigation outreach efforts based on local geospatial information and water quality modeling. Spatial historical life cycle models were developed for corn and soybeans from NASS crop pesticide life cycle inventory (LCI) data where impact was characterized using the CLiCC Chemical Life Cycle Collaborative Tool and the effectiveness of mitigation practice effectiveness was evaluated. A suite of tools was developed for modeling crucial aspects of agricultural systems, focusing on erosion and pasture production in the northeastern United States, and how climate, soils, and management options interact to determine environmental outcomes. These models were integrated into an automated and reproducible workflow to facilitate regional and national modeling, and to enable the use of SCINet resources. Complementary work on plant phenology across the eastern United States was developed to allow the incorporation of non-agricultural vegetation into the quantification of pollinator resources on agricultural landscapes. Scientists are working with university partners to incorporate findings into existing online decision support tools, and with NRCS to incorporate research findings into a novel online tool for assessing pasture conservation needs based on environmental factors and management. In Sub-Objective 2.A, adoption of farm-specific beneficial management practices was found to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient losses from dairy farms in the northeastern U.S. under current climate and stabilize the environmental impact in future climate conditions. Thus, appropriate management changes can help dairy farms become more sustainable under current climate and better prepared to adapt to future climate variability. Crop response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide was predicted by the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) within the ranges measured in free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments for grain yield, total biomass yield and harvest index. Following this verification, IFSM was used to evaluate the effect of increasing carbon dioxide and changing climate on double crop corn and rye silage systems on dairy farms in central Pennsylvania. We found that double cropping benefited greatly from the projected increase in growing season length providing additional forage that is less susceptible to summer droughts. Use of this more intensive crop rotation along with improved manure application technology can help mitigate dairy farm environmental impacts now and even more in the future without significantly increasing total production costs. The IFSM was also verified to represent the performance and nutrient losses of corn production in the Northern Plains region using different manure and inorganic fertilization treatments. Following verification, simulated beef finishing systems showed greater ammonia emission and soluble P runoff with use of feedlot and bedded manure compared to use of inorganic fertilizers, but life-cycle fossil energy use and greenhouse gas emission were decreased. Projected climate change by mid-century gave a small increase in feed production in the Dakotas and a small decrease for irrigated corn in Nebraska. Environmental impact differences among the fertilization systems under future climate were generally like those obtained under recent climate. Under Sub-Objective 2.B, cropping rotations were spatially reallocated across a piedmont agricultural watershed to explore the potential for more optimized use of the regions physiographic features in mitigating long-term production-reducing changes in climate. These findings stress the importance of informed design and implementation of best management practices effective in "hot moments" and not just "hot spots" across impaired watersheds to achieve and maintain water quality restoration goals. The "temporal targeting framework" provides a useful and convenient method for watershed planners to create low- and high-flow load targeting tables specific to a watershed and constituent. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was modified to include dynamic carbon dioxide input and account for the resulting impacts to evapotranspiration. After corroboration, the modified version was used to simulate and compare three northeastern Long-Term Agroecosystem Research watersheds under nine climate forecasts to determine early-, mid-, and late-century predictions of agricultural water quantity and quality. Additionally, the long-term practicality of promoting a shift in manure application levels to not exceed agronomic phosphorus demands was simulated across the Susquehanna River Basin with several variations. Results demonstrated the potential water quality benefit of moving excess manure away from the intense agricultural systems and toward the headwaters. The modeling workflow developed in subobjective 1.B with current climate data was repeated using climate change projections. Species distribution and phenological models developed using machine learning methods added the capacity to better understand potential shifts in forage and crop species potential ranges. Pollinator resources were added explicitly using improved land cover maps and phenological models. This fusion resulted in maps of potential future agricultural scenarios for the northeastern United States, and consequences for ecosystem services including production, soil erosion, and pollination services. Scientists are working with university partners to incorporate findings into existing online decision support tools. Artificial Intelligence (AI)/Machine Learning (ML) 1.B.2 -- Machine learning methods [random forest] and artificial intelligence [Super-Resolution Convolutional Neural Network, Long short- term memory (LSTM)] models were run on both commercial cloud services and computing resources provided by an external collaborator to allow us to conduct precision management research using big data across a large scales. 1.B.3, 2.B.2 -- Classical non-neural machine learning methods (primarily random forests) were used extensively in this project to enhance predictive capability for species distributions of forage species under climate change scenarios. Computational effort for AI methods was conducted on both local computing hardware and using SCINet resources, primarily Atlas. AI methods have both accelerated research progress through state-of-the art algorithms and predictive tools, and the use of SCINet resources has allowed analyses and predictions to extend to broader spatial regions and across multi-year models. ACCOMPLISHMENTS 01 Beneficial reuse of treated wastewater. Beneficial reuse of treated wastewater as an irrigation source is becoming increasingly widespread to reduce reliance on freshwater resource for agricultural production. However, emerging contaminants, such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are inadvertently introduced into agricultural fields when treated wastewater is used for irrigation due to their persistence through conventional wastewater treatment technologies. The Pennsylvania State University main campus has its own water reclamation facility that treats all campus wastewater for beneficial reuse at a mixed-use (agricultural and forested) site known as the ⿿Living Filter. The facility has been operating at full-scale for more than 40 years. To understand the long-term benefits and potential impacts of beneficial reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation, ARS scientists at University Park, Pennsylvania, and Penn State University collaborators monitored the occurrence of PPCPs and PFAS in the wastewater influent, effluent, and 13 groundwater monitoring stations at the site. The results showed that the Living Filter, with soil profiles exceeding 100 ft in some portions of the site, provides a significant benefit to mitigating PPCPs prior to the water reaching the groundwater, with concentrations up to two orders of magnitude lower in the groundwater compared to the wastewater effluent. However, the results for PFAS suggested that although the site was protecting nearby surface water (i. e., the treatment facility does not discharge to the local stream ⿿ Spring Creek ⿿ which is a high-quality cold-water fishery), it is unable to reduce the PFAS concentrations to below the state (passed) and federal (proposed) drinking water standards. Therefore, our results reveal concerns for long-term usage of treated wastewater as an irrigation source if PFAS remain in elevated levels in the treated effluent. 02 Enhancing spatial targeting with temporal targeting. Implementation of agricultural best management practices over the past decade have often failed to meet load reduction goals in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. To better understand why water quality goals lag adoption of agricultural conservation practices, ARS scientists at University Park, Pennsylvania, and Penn State University collaborators leveraged a technique called Lorenz Inequality that is commonly used in economics to quantify income inequality. Using this technique, scientists quantified the degree of temporal inequality exhibited by sediment and nutrient loads for catchments across the Bay watershed and found that a large majority of annual loads are transported during short periods of time associated with high-flow events. Conservation practices are often most effective during smaller events; therefore, this approach provided insight into the periods of time when loads could most effectively be targeted from a temporal perspective, enhancing the spatial targeting approach that most watershed implementation plans utilize. This approach was applied to a wide range of water quality parameters in a Long-term Agroecosystem Research watershed to demonstrate that conservation practices implemented there were effective in preventing legacy phosphorus buildup. Finally, this approach was used to develop a decision-making tool to identify the ⿿windows of opportunity that could be targeted to achieve load reduction goals most effectively. By better understanding the temporal variability of nutrient and sediment loads, solutions can be proposed that enable targeting to move from the ⿿right practice in the right place to the ⿿right practice in the right place at the right time. Three peer-reviewed manuscripts provide the data analysis and decision-making tools necessary for enhancing spatial targeting of conservation practices to include a temporal targeting component. 03 Environmental sustainability of United States beef. There is increasing public awareness and concern regarding the environmental effects of agriculture with particular interest in beef production. A full life cycle assessment of U.S. beef was conducted to determine total impacts from the production of resources used through consumption and the waste created for a comprehensive set of environmental impact categories. In most categories, the major sources of impact were related to cattle production. For other categories, electricity consumption across the supply chain was a substantial driver of environmental impacts. Food waste was a major contributor to all categories making waste among the greatest impacts on the environmental sustainability of U.S. beef. This highlights the importance of engaging the full supply chain in understanding the impacts of the industry. This assessment of U.S. beef provides a baseline to quantify potential national benefits as mitigation strategies are developed and implemented. 04 Reducing concentrated flow pathways to improve stream buffers. Riparian buffers are a widespread agricultural conservation practice in the Chesapeake Bay watershed because they are considered among the most effective in trapping nutrients and sediment prior in stormwater runoff prior to reaching adjacent streams. However, the prevalence of concentrated flow pathways has caused concerns, as these pathways cause stormwater to be ⿿short-circuited through these buffers, reducing their potential to mitigate pollutants. Stream segments assessed before and after buffer implementation did not show consistent improvement in macroinvertebrate diversity, which poses challenges for de-listing these streams from the impaired list. Implementation of buffers does not necessarily address in-stream issues for macroinvertebrate habitat, and modeling efforts to simulate the benefits of riparian buffer adoption do not include maintenance issues, such as erosional pathways, that may be compromising buffer integrity. Recent research by ARS scientists from University Park, Pennsylvania, and collaborators demonstrated that the occurrence of concentrated flow pathways can undermine the effectiveness of riparian buffers not only for sediment and nutrient treatment, but also for pesticides. Additionally, multi- zone buffers, with grass between the crops and forested section of a buffer, help to improve buffer effectiveness and reduce the potential for concentrated flow pathways to form. If pesticides are short- circuited through buffer zones, then this provides further pressure on macroinvertebrates, and may be contributing to a lack of correlation between buffer implementation and improved diversity (e.g., Index of Biotic Integrity scores). Findings suggest that more efforts are needed to ensure buffers are properly maintained following adoption to keep their integrity from being compromised due to erosional issues. 05 Stakeholder engagement improves watershed management planning. Including stakeholder preferences in the development of watershed management plans is critically important to the successful restoration of an impaired waterway. However, how their preferences are included in the development of these plans remains inconsistent. For example, hydrology and water quality models can produce a suite of possible adoption options that all achieve the same water quality goal. If scientists set up scenarios before engaging with stakeholders, then the results are likely to not meet stakeholder needs and will likely fail to be implemented. If instead, stakeholders are involved prior to model development, then the scenarios that are run using the model will reflect stakeholder preferences and are more likely to be well-received by local landowners. Through a collection of four peer-reviewed papers, ARS scientists at University Park, Pennsylvania, and collaborators provide several examples of successful engagement with local stakeholders that resulted in watershed management plans that reflected stakeholder inputs/values and achieved nutrient and sediment load reduction goals. These goals were achieved in several ways, depending on the case study watershed; either prioritizing lowest cost of implementing the plan at the watershed scale while meeting load reduction goals or prioritizing yield across the watershed by modifying where in the watershed crops were grown (functional land management approach). The collection of papers provides examples of stakeholder engagement processes that were successful in development of each management plan, as well as documented the water quality benefits of those plans compared to other more traditional approaches that do not take stakeholder preferences into consideration. In each case study, water quality goals were achieved or exceeded using by incorporating stakeholder engagement into computer-based approaches. 06 Bio-char more sustainably treats wastewater. Conventional wastewater treatment plants are unable to effectively degrade or remove emerging contaminants, including pharmaceuticals, such that these chemicals persist in the effluent. They are therefore inadvertently introduced into streams during discharge or to agricultural fields if the treated wastewater is reused as an irrigation source. However, technologies that effectively remove these pharmaceuticals, such as ion exchange resin or activated carbon, are expensive and can be energy intensive to produce and/or operate. Therefore, low-cost and low-energy solutions are needed to improve the sustainability of providing further treatment to wastewater. ARS scientists at University Park, Pennsylvania, have been exploring the potential for biochar produced from agricultural waste products, including guayule bagasse, cotton gin, and walnut shells, to act as a sorbent for removing pharmaceuticals from water. Biochar from cotton gin outperformed biochar from guyule bagasse. Biochar derived from cotton gin waste adsorbed 98% of the docusate, 74% of the erythromycin and 70% of the sulfapyridine in aqueous solution. By comparison, the biochar derived from guayule bagasse adsorbed 50% of the docusate, 50% of the erythromycin and just 5% of the sulfapyridine. However, biochar from walnut shells performed best at removing sulfapyridine and acetaminophen, with 72% and 68% removal of each, respectively, after 24 hours. Our results show that additional research is needed to better develop ⿿designer biochars to best achieve specific water quality goals. In addition, design parameters and operating conditions for biochar-based systems are still lacking. Overall, our findings suggest that future research should focus on developing and validating protocols for biochar production and design of biochar water treatment technologies.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- Mercier, K.M., Billman, E.D., Soder, K.J., Jaramillo, D.M., Goslee, S.C., Adler, P.R. 2023. Managing interspecies competition to improve spring pasture maturity, nutritive value, and biomass. Crop Science. 63(2) :974⿿986. https://doi.org/10.1002/csc2.20892.
- McDowell, R., Rotz, C.A., Oenema, J., Maclntosh, K. 2022. Limiting grazing periods combined with proper housing can reduce nutrient losses from dairy systems. Nature Food. 3:1065-1074. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022- 00644-2.
- Spiegal, S.A., Vendramini, J.M., Bittman, S., Silveira, M., Gifford, C., Ragosta, J.P., Kleinman, P.J. 2022. Recycling nutrients in the beef supply chain through circular manuresheds: Data to assess tradeoffs. Journal of Environmental Quality. 51(4):494-509. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20365.
- Goodrich, D.C., Bosch, D.D., Bryant, R.B., Cosh, M.H., Endale, D.M., Veith, T.L., Kleinman, P.J., Langendoen, E.J., McCarty, G.W., Pierson Jr., F.B., Schomberg, H.H., Smith, D.R., Starks, P.J., Strickland, T.C., Tsegaye, T.D. , Awada, T., Swain, H., Derner, J.D., Bestelmeyer, B.T., Schmer, M.R., Baker, J.M., Carlson, B.R., Huggins, D.R., Archer, D.W., Armendariz, G.A. 2022. Long term agroecosystem research experimental watershed network. Hydrological Processes. 36(3). Article e14534. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp. 14534. [Corrigendum: Hydrological Processes: 2022, 36(6), Article e14609. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14609.]
- Phung, Q., Thompson, A., Baffaut, C., Witthaus, L.M., Aloysius, N., Veith, T.L., Bosch, D.D., McCarty, G.W., Lee, S. 2023. Assessing soil vulnerability index classification with respect to rainfall characteristics. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 78(3):209-221. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.2023.00065.
- Hayden, K.R., Jones, M., Elkin, K.R., Shreve, M.J., Clees II, W.I., Clark, S., Mashtare, M.L., Veith, T.L., Elliott, H.A., Watson, J.E., Silverman, J. , Richard, T.L., Read, A.F., Preisendanz, H.E. 2022. Impacts of the COVID- 19 pandemic on pharmaceuticals in wastewater treated for beneficial reuse: Two case studies in central Pennsylvania. Journal of Environmental Quality. 51(5):1066⿿1082. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20398.
- Mroczko, O., Preisendanz, H.E., Wilson, C., Elliott, H.A., Veith, T.L., Mashtare, M.L., Soder, K.J., Watson, J.E. 2022. Spatiotemporal patterns of PFAS in water and crop tissue at a beneficial wastewater reuse site in central Pennsylvania. Science of the Total Environment. 51(6):1282⿿1297. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20408.
- Putman, B., Rotz, C.A., Thoma, G. 2023. A comprehensive environmental assessment of beef production and consumption in the United States. Journal of Cleaner Production. 402:136766. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jclepro.2023.136766.
- Thivierge, M., Belanger, G., Jego, G., Delmotte, S., Rotz, C.A., Charbonneau, E. 2023. Perennial forages in cold-humid areas: Adaptation and resilience-building strategies towards climate change. Agronomy Journal. 115(4):1519-1542. https://doi.org/10.1002/agj2.21354.
- Saha, A., Cibin, R., Veith, T.L., White, C.M., Drohan, P.J. 2023. Water quality benefits of weather-based manure application timing and manure placement strategies. Journal of Environmental Management. 333:117386. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117386.
- Chiles, R.M., Drohan, P.J., Cibin, R., O'Sullivan, L., Doody, D., Schulte, R., Grady, C., Jiang, F., Preisendanz, H.E., Dingkuhn, E.L., Veith, T.L., Anderson, A. 2023. Optimization and reflexivity in interdisciplinary agri- environmental scholarship. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 7:1083388. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2023.1083388.
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Progress 10/01/21 to 09/30/22
Outputs
PROGRESS REPORT Objectives (from AD-416): Objective 1: Assess and improve sustainable intensification strategies of crop and integrated crop-livestock systems for farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes. Sub-objective 1A: Quantify long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 1B: Develop management and placement strategies for improving ecosystem service provisioning through diverse agricultural landscapes that integrate crop and livestock systems. Objective 2: Determine the sensitivity of farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes to climate variability and develop strategies for adapting agriculture to current and projected changes. Sub-objective 2A: Quantify effects of projected climate and potential adaptation strategies on long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through the use of farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 2B: Characterize the landscape-scale responses and trade- offs of agricultural ecosystem services, given projected climate and potential adaptation scenarios. Approach (from AD-416): Agriculture faces increasing demands for productivity and efficiency that must be balanced against pressures to continually improve stewardship of natural resources. Climate models from 1950 through 2100 predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Northeast, further complicating agricultural sustainability planning. Our research focuses on whole farms, watersheds, and landscapes to quantitatively evaluate both long-term sustainabilities and broader environmental impacts of various agricultural production systems under current and predicted climate. We will evaluate alternative production strategies based on economic viability, implementation feasibility, and impacts to ecosystem services and disservices. We are concerned with not only provisioning ecosystem services such as dairy, beef, and crop production but also supporting and regulating services like nutrient cycling and landscape diversity. Disservices from agriculture include greenhouse gas emissions and other nutrient losses to air and water. Our two objectives assess ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) agricultural production strategies for sustainable intensification at multiple scales. The (A) sub-objectives are farm-scale in detail and industry-wide in scope. The (B) sub-objectives focus on landscape-scale hydrology and ecology within the Northeast to inform both local and multi- regional research efforts. Objective 1 assesses strategies under recent climate conditions (1980-2005), and corroborates our modeling tools in representing BAU and ASP strategies. To be most valuable, however, developed strategies and tools must be successful under future climate conditions. Objective 2 corroborates our tools under historical climate (1960-1980) and applies them under future mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2080-2100) climate projections, assessing ASP strategies that most effectively meet the challenges and opportunities of future climate. We will collaborate with larger USDA-led research networks, including the Long-Term Agroecological Research network (LTAR), Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and Dairy Agroecosystems Working Group (DAWG). Such networking provides expertise and data on outcomes from management strategies for cropping and integrated crop-livestock systems that will be used to confirm results of the first objective and provide a basis for extrapolation of future systems for the second. We will analyze data using both simple and complex process-based simulation models, life cycle assessment, and advanced computational techniques. With an emphasis on sustainable intensification in accord with climate predictions, our research will support systems-level understandings of current and potential agricultural systems in the Northeast, and how these can continue to produce food and fuel in the future. Outcomes of this research will support farmers directly through management strategies and decision support tools, and will provide scientifically-valid data to federal and state programs aimed at improving nutrient management, conservation, and resource use efficiency. Progress was made on both objectives and their subobjectives, all of which fall under National Program Action Plan 216: Agricultural System Competitiveness and Sustainability and contributes to Component 1: Building agroecosystems for intensive, resilient production via GxExM; Component 2: Increasing efficiency for agroecosystem sustainability; and Component 3: Achieving agroecosystem potentials. Under Objective 1, subobjective 1A, a series of beneficial management practices were assessed for U.S. beef production systems, and a report was submitted to the National Cattlemen⿿s Beef Association. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) was linked with life cycle assessment software to provide full system evaluation of multiple environmental impact categories. Archetypical production systems across the U.S. were constructed using the IFSM simulation platform to supply life cycle inventory flows. For many impact categories, electricity consumption and fertilizer production were notable drivers of environmental impact. The only direct action available to the beef sector to aid in mitigation of these impacts is to reduce electricity and fertilizer consumption or shift to renewable sources. In collaboration with the Southwest Beef Project and the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network, representative beef cattle operations were modeled in the western region. Farm-gate life cycle assessments of cattle finishing on rangeland in the Southwest, pastureland in the Northern Plains, and feedlots in the Texas Panhandle were determined and a manuscript was prepared. Use of a decanter centrifuge to extract phosphorus from manure was evaluated on a 2000-cow dairy farm in central Pennsylvania, and a manuscript was published. Phosphorus extraction provided a better ratio of nitrogen and phosphorus contents for use on nearby cropland and reduced transport costs for nutrients applied to more distant cropland. In collaboration with Dairy Management Incorporated, a project was initiated to study the environmental benefits of implementing various technologies or strategies with the goal of obtaining net zero greenhouse gas emissions from dairy farms. As a follow up to our recent national assessment of the environmental impacts of current U.S. dairy farms, a project was initiated to model dairy farms in 1970 to quantify environmental improvements made over the past 50 years. This analysis is quantifying the rate of change in methane emissions from dairy farms, which enables the calculation of global warming using a new model referred to as GWP*. Under Objective 1, subobjective 1B, a detailed water quality model was modified from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate hydrology, nutrient, and sediment losses of agricultural fields in multi- year rotations. This model focuses on the effect of hillslope position and topography of the field in simulating infiltration- and saturation- based flows. Seasonal and annual results from each field were compared with similar outputs from Pennsylvania Phosphorus Index version 2. Because the Phosphorus Index provides an average annual risk assessment over a multi-year rotation, we found that its results minimized the actual year-to-year losses caused by temporal climatic variation. This result was more pronounced for row crop rotations without continuous soil cover and for more disruptive tillage practices. In addition to field losses of excess nutrients, the impacts of agricultural chemicals beyond their intended purpose can be costly, both environmentally and economically. Life cycle inventory (LCI) models were developed for pesticides in the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) chemical use survey for corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton in the United States and their impact was characterized using the Chemical Life Cycle Collaborative Tool (CLiCC). Finally, multiple axes of diversity -- physical, production (irrigated and rain-fed crops, and livestock), and socio-economic -- were used to characterize agriculturally-relevant landscape diversity for the conterminous United States. The regionalization thus developed is a key part of current Long-Term Agroecosystem Research efforts and is additionally used to provide a basis for climate change and ecosystem services modeling. Under Objective 2, subobjective 2A contained no specific milestones. Milestones for subobjective 2B involved development of models and model inputs to better understand how agriculture may be impacted by future climatic changes. Soil and Water Assessment tool projects were modified to incorporate the estimated impact of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide in accordance with climate change projections. Additionally, the long-term practicality of promoting a shift in manure application levels to not exceed agronomic phosphorus demands was simulated across the Susquehanna River Basin with several variations. Input modifications for grazing and crop growth were made to ensure simulated increases and decreases in biomass over time were realistic. Extending our look into climate change projections even more broadly, empirical models of climatic distribution were developed for forage species and for key crop species. These models were linked with climate change projections to produce maps of potential future agricultural scenarios for the northeastern United States, and consequences for ecosystem services including production, soil erosion, and pollination services.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- Opalinski, N., Schultz, D., Veith, T.L., Royer, M., Preisendanz, H. 2022. Meeting the moment: leveraging temporal inequality for temporal targeting to achieve water quality load reduction goals. Water. 14:1003. https://doi. org/10.3390/w14071003.
- Browning, D.M., Russell, E.S., Ponce-Campos, G.E., Kaplan, N.E., Richardson, A.D., Seyednasrollah, B., Spiegal, S.A., Saliendra, N.Z., Alfieri, J.G., Baker, J.M., Bernacchi, C.J., Bestelmeyer, B.T., Bosch, D.D. , Boughton, E.H., Boughton, R.K., Clark, P., Flerchinger, G.N., Gomez- Casanovas, N., Goslee, S.C., Haddad, N., Hoover, D.L., Jaradat, A.A., Mauritz, M., Miller, G.R., McCarty, G.W., Sadler, J., Saha, A., Scott, R.L. , Suyker, A., Tweedie, C., Wood, J., Zhang, X., Taylor, S.D. 2021. Monitoring agroecosystem productivity and phenology at a national scale: A metric assessment framework. Ecological Indicators. 131. Article 108147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.108147.
- Meinen, R.J., Spiegal, S.A., Kleinman, P.J., Flynn, K.C., Goslee, S.C., Mikesell, R.E., Church, C., Bryant, R.B., Boggess, M.V. 2022. Opportunities to implement manureshed management in the Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania swine industry. Journal of Environmental Quality. 51(4):510-520. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20340.
- Robinson, A.C., Peeler, J., Prestby, T., Goslee, S.C., Anton, K., Grozinger, C.M. 2021. Beescape: characterizing user needs for environmental decision support in beekeeping. Ecological Informatics. 64:101366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101366.
- Dell, C.J., Baker, J.M., Spiegal, S.A., Porter, S.A., Leytem, A.B., Flynn, K.C., Rotz, C.A., Bjorneberg, D.L., Bryant, R.B., Hagevoort, R., Williamson, J., Slaughter, A.L., Kleinman, P.J. 2022. Challenges and opportunities for manureshed management across U.S. dairy systems: Case studies from four regions. Journal of Environmental Quality. 54(4):521-539. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20341.
- Lavorivska, L., Veith, T.L., Cibin, R., Preisendanz, H.E., Steinman, A.D. 2021. Mitigating lake eutrophication through stakeholder-driven hydrologic modeling of agricultural conservation practices: A case study of Lake Macatawa, Michigan. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 47(6):1710-1725. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2021.10.001.
- Hayden, K.R., Presisendanz, H.E., Elkin, K.R., Saleh, L.B., Weikel, J., Veith, T.L., Elliott, H.A., Watson, J.E. 2022. Monitoring emerging contaminants in vernal pools impacted and unimpacted by wastewater irrigation using POCIS and grab sampling techniques. Science of the Total Environment. 806(2):0150607. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021. 150607.
- Hood, R.R., Shenk, G.W., Dixon, R.L., Smith, S.M., Ball, W.P., Bash, J.O., Batiuk, R., Boomer, K., Brady, D.C., Cerco, C., Claggett, P., Mutsert, K.D. , Easton, Z.M., Elmore, A.J., Friedrichs, M.A., Harris, L.A., Ihde, T.F., Lacher, L., Li, L., Linker, L.C., Miller, A., Moriarty, J., Noe, G.B., Onyullo, G.E., Rose, K., Skalak, K., Tian, R., Veith, T.L., Wainger, L., Weller, D., Yinglong, Z.J. 2021. The Chesapeake Bay program modeling system: overview and recommendations for future development. Ecological Modelling. 456:109635. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109635.
- Rotz, C.A., Asem-Hiablie, S., Cortus, E., Rahman, S., Spiehs, M., Rahman, S., Stoner, A. 2021. An environmental assessment of cattle manure and urea fertilizer treatments for corn production in the northern great plains. Transactions of the ASABE. 64(4):1185-1196. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans. 14275.
- Dillion, J., Stackhouse-Lawson, K., Thoma, G., Gunter, S.A., Rotz, C.A., Kebreab, E., Riley, D.G., Tedeschi, L., Villalba, J., Mitloehner, F., Hristov, A., Archibeque, S., Ritten, J.P., Mueller, N. 2021. Current state of enteric methane and the carbon footprint of beef and dairy cattle in the United States. Animal Frontiers. 11(4):57-68. https://doi.org/10.1093/ af/vfab043.
- Foster, D., Helama, S., Harrison, M., Rotz, C.A., Chang, J., Ciais, P., Pattey, E., Virkajarvi, P., Shurpali, N. 2022. Use, calibration, and validation of Agroecological models for Boreal environments: a review. Science of the Total Environment. 1(1):14-30. https://doi.org/10.1002/glr2. 12010.
- Rotz, C.A., Reiner, M.R., Fishel, S.K., Church, C. 2022. Whole farm performance of centrifuge extraction of phosphorus from dairy manure. Applied Engineering in Agriculture. 38(2):321-330. https://doi.org/10. 13031/aea.14863.
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Progress 10/01/20 to 09/30/21
Outputs
PROGRESS REPORT Objectives (from AD-416): Objective 1: Assess and improve sustainable intensification strategies of crop and integrated crop-livestock systems for farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes. Sub-objective 1A: Quantify long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 1B: Develop management and placement strategies for improving ecosystem service provisioning through diverse agricultural landscapes that integrate crop and livestock systems. Objective 2: Determine the sensitivity of farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes to climate variability and develop strategies for adapting agriculture to current and projected changes. Sub-objective 2A: Quantify effects of projected climate and potential adaptation strategies on long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through the use of farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 2B: Characterize the landscape-scale responses and trade- offs of agricultural ecosystem services, given projected climate and potential adaptation scenarios. Approach (from AD-416): Agriculture faces increasing demands for productivity and efficiency that must be balanced against pressures to continually improve stewardship of natural resources. Climate models from 1950 through 2100 predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Northeast, further complicating agricultural sustainability planning. Our research focuses on whole farms, watersheds, and landscapes to quantitatively evaluate both long-term sustainabilities and broader environmental impacts of various agricultural production systems under current and predicted climate. We will evaluate alternative production strategies based on economic viability, implementation feasibility, and impacts to ecosystem services and disservices. We are concerned with not only provisioning ecosystem services such as dairy, beef, and crop production but also supporting and regulating services like nutrient cycling and landscape diversity. Disservices from agriculture include greenhouse gas emissions and other nutrient losses to air and water. Our two objectives assess ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) agricultural production strategies for sustainable intensification at multiple scales. The (A) sub-objectives are farm-scale in detail and industry-wide in scope. The (B) sub-objectives focus on landscape-scale hydrology and ecology within the Northeast to inform both local and multi- regional research efforts. Objective 1 assesses strategies under recent climate conditions (1980-2005), and corroborates our modeling tools in representing BAU and ASP strategies. To be most valuable, however, developed strategies and tools must be successful under future climate conditions. Objective 2 corroborates our tools under historical climate (1960-1980) and applies them under future mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2080-2100) climate projections, assessing ASP strategies that most effectively meet the challenges and opportunities of future climate. We will collaborate with larger USDA-led research networks, including the Long-Term Agroecological Research network (LTAR), Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and Dairy Agroecosystems Working Group (DAWG). Such networking provides expertise and data on outcomes from management strategies for cropping and integrated crop-livestock systems that will be used to confirm results of the first objective and provide a basis for extrapolation of future systems for the second. We will analyze data using both simple and complex process-based simulation models, life cycle assessment, and advanced computational techniques. With an emphasis on sustainable intensification in accord with climate predictions, our research will support systems-level understandings of current and potential agricultural systems in the Northeast, and how these can continue to produce food and fuel in the future. Outcomes of this research will support farmers directly through management strategies and decision support tools, and will provide scientifically-valid data to federal and state programs aimed at improving nutrient management, conservation, and resource use efficiency. Progress was made on both objectives and their subobjectives, all of which fall under National Program Action Plan 216: Agricultural System Competitiveness and Sustainability and contributes to Component 1: Building agroecosystems for intensive, resilient production via GxExM; Component 2: Increasing efficiency for agroecosystem sustainability; and Component 3: Achieving agroecosystem potentials. Under Objective 1, subobjective 1A, a full life cycle assessment of beef was completed by collaborators at the University of Arkansas with a report submitted to the National Cattlemen⿿s Beef Association. This provides the most comprehensive full life cycle assessment of U.S. beef available. Representative dairy farms throughout six regions of the U.S. were modeled using the Integrated Farm System Model to provide farm environmental impact data. These data were used to complete a comprehensive cradle to farm-gate life cycle assessment of U.S. dairy farms, and the work was documented in a journal manuscript. Environmental footprints for greenhouse gas emission, fossil energy use, and water consumption represented a relatively small portion of respective national inventories, but the dairy industry⿿s contribution to ammonia emission appears to be considerably greater. In collaboration with the Southwest Beef Project and Long-Term Agroecosystm Research (LTAR), representative beef cattle operations were modeled throughout the southwest region. Preliminary results were obtained comparing farm-gate life cycle assessments of cattle finishing on rangeland in the Southwest, pastureland in the Northern Plains, and feedlots in the Texas Panhandle. Under subobjective 1B, high-risk landscape characteristics predicted by the Agricultural Conservation Planning Framework (ACPF) were ground- truthed and overlain with high-risk areas predicted by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Additionally, nutrient loss predictions between SWAT and the Pennsylvania Phosphorus Index were compared and evaluated. This work feeds into a national effort between ARS and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) to identify and upgrade tools for conservation planners to organize their mitigation outreach efforts based on local geospatial information and water quality modeling. Spatial maps were developed describing the impact of management on the profitability of double cropping. The economics of double cropping wheat and barley improved with early harvest in the north but decreased in the south. Consistent with historical cropping patterns, double-crop wheat economics improved along a southerly longitudinal gradient and with the addition of straw coproduct. When N fertilizer was applied to rye, rye biomass yield was greater following corn than soybeans and generally increased along a southerly longitudinal gradient. However, cereal rye was only profitable in the southern regions when the rye crop followed corn and no N fertilizer was applied to the rye. Following soybeans, rye was not profitable, with or without N application. Considering the sensitivity of double-crop rotation economics to soybean yields, and that barley has less impact on soybean yields than wheat does in the northern regions, the establishment of a bioenergy or pulp market for biomass could provide significant incentive for widespread planting of winter barley as a double crop in corn-soybean rotations. In conjunction with a LTAR network summary of climate change projections, soil erosion and nutrient losses were modeled for all 18 LTAR regions using the 2018 boundary layers and historical weather data. Additionally, five climate change scenarios were chosen to span the range of projected futures. These analyses provide a broad comparison of climate change-related effects on erosion for agriculture across the U.S. Under Objective 2, subobjective 2A, previous models of heat stress on cattle informed new strategies to evaluate aspirational dairy systems for Pennsylvania. A representative dairy farm was modeled to compare ⿿business as usual management strategies with ⿿aspirational stratagies that used double cropping and subsurface manure injection. Assessments were completed for recent historical climate and projected midcentury climate. Double cropping winter rye and corn silages and subsurface injection of manure reduced soluble P runoff and ammonia volatilization to the atmosphere without significantly increasing total production costs. Adoption of these strategies provided a feasible adaptation and mitigation strategy for future climate by reducing potential increases in soluble P runoff and ammonia emission caused by warmer temperatures and more intense storms while maintaining and potentially reducing total farm production costs. Under Subobjective 2B, cropping rotations were spatially reallocated across a piedmont agricultural watershed to explore the potential for more optimized use of the regions physiographic features in mitigating long-term production-reducing changes in climate. More broadly, the impact of climate variability on storm frequency and volume was assessed over 10 years across 108 subwatersheds within the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Network. These findings stress the importance of informed design and implementation of best management practices effective in "hot moments" and not just "hot spots" across impaired watersheds to achieve and maintain water quality restoration goals. The "temporal targeting framework" provides a useful and convenient method for watershed planners to create low- and high-flow load targeting tables specific to a watershed and constituent. Modeling of regionally representative farming systems using projected climates was delayed by pandemic-related personnel issues but substantially completed. The same set of climate change projections used for subobjective 1B was used to drive a model of forage production across the northeastern U.S. to develop initial projections of spatial and temporal dynamics in grazing systems. Representative farms were not completed since that required an additional modeling step, but this milestone is anticipated to be completed by the end of the fiscal year. Record of Any Impact of Maximized Teleworking Requirement: No major impacts were experienced. Productivity may have increased on some projects through more efficient use of time. Objective 2.B.2 was substantially delayed by COVID-related personnel issues, but the core milestone was met. Trait and biomass data were collected, but data collection for the annual forage species of interest, final forage model testing and publication were delayed. ACCOMPLISHMENTS 01 Environmental impact of U.S. dairy farms. A comprehensive life cycle assessment across six regions of the U.S. provided regional and national estimates of dairy farm impacts. Greenhouse gas emissions, fossil energy use, and blue (ground and surface) water use associated with dairy production were relatively small (less than 3 percent) compared to national inventories. A more significant environmental concern is ammonia emission, where dairy farms may emit as much as 24 percent of the estimated emission from U.S. This analysis also indicates that varied mitigation strategies tailored for individual farms are most effective. This assessment provides a science-based understanding of critical environmental issues facing the dairy industry. 02 Honey bee winter survival. Pollination is a crucial service required by many crops and managed honey bees provide $15 billion in pollination services to U.S. agriculture. Honey production adds another $300 million to the U.S. economy. Bees suffer from many challenges, including insecticides, disease, and overwintering mortality. A multi- year survey of beekeepers in Pennsylvania was used to identify the weather and landscape factors most closely linked to honey bee winter mortality. Summer temperatures that allow for successful growth and collection from flowers were an essential factor. This information contributed to the development of the BeeWinterWise decision support tool (https://beescape.org). This new tool helps beekeepers understand how the current weather at their locations may affect honey bee mortality during the subsequent winter, enabling them to make informed decisions for seasonal hive management.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- Calovi, M., Grozinger, C.M., Miller, D.A., Goslee, S.C. 2021. Summer weather conditions influence winter survival of honey bees (Apis mellifera) in the northeastern United States. Scientific Reports. 11:1553. https:// doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81051-8.
- Webb, M.J., Block, J.J., Harty, A.A., Salverson, R.R., Daly, R.F., Jaeger, J.R., Underwood, K.R., Funston, R.N., Pendell, D.P., Rotz, C.A., Olson, K. C., Blair, A.D. 2020. Cattle and carcass performance and life cycle assessment of production systems utilizing additive combinations of growth promotant technologies. Journal of Animal Science. 4(4):1-15. https://doi. org/10.1093/tas/txaa216.
- Dillon, J.A., Rotz, C.A., Karsten, H.D. 2020. Management characteristics of Northeast U.S. grass-fed beef production systems. Applied Animal Science. 36(5):715-730. https://doi.org/10.15232/aas.2020-01992.
- Gunn, K.M., Buda, A.R., Gall, H.E., Cibin, R., Kennedy, C.D., Veith, T.L. 2021. Integrating daily CO2 concentrations in Topo-SWAT to examine climate change impacts in a karst watershed. Transactions of the ASABE. 1-58. https://doi.org/10.13031/trans.13711.
- Preisendanz, H.E., Veith, T.L., Zhang, Q., Shortle, J. 2020. Temporal inequality of nutrient and sediment transport: A decision-making framework for temporal targeting of load reduction goals. Environmental Research Letters. 16:1-18. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc997.
- McNeil, D., McCormick, E., Heimann, A., Kammerer, M., Douglas, M., Goslee, S.C., Grozinger, C., Hines, H. 2020. Bumble bees in landscapes with abundant floral resources have lower pathogen loads. Scientific Reports. 10:22306. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-78119-2.
- Jiang, F., Drohan, P.J., Cibin, R., Preisendanz, H.E., White, C., Veith, T. L. 2020. Reallocating crop rotation patterns improves water quality and maintains crop yield. Agricultural Systems. 187:103015. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.agsy.2020.103015.
- Fei, J., Preisendanz, H., Veith, T.L., Raj, C., Drohan, P. 2020. Riparian buffer effectiveness as a function of buffer design and input loads. Journal of Environmental Quality. 49(6):1599-1611. https://doi.org/10.1002/ jeq2.20149.
- Gollany, H.T., Del Grosso, S.J., Dell, C.J., Adler, P.R., Polumsky, R.W. 2021. Assessing the effectiveness of agricultural conservation practices in maintaining soil organic carbon under contrasting agroecosystems and changing climate. Soil Science Society of America Journal. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/saj2.20232.
- Tao, M., Adler, P.R., Larsen, A.E., Suh, S. 2020. Pesticide application rates and their toxicological impacts: why do they vary so widely across the U.S. Environmental Research Letters. 15:1-12. https://doi.org/10.1088/ 1748-9326/abc650.
- Kammerer, M., Goslee, S.C., Douglas, M.R., Tooker, J.F., Grozinger, C.M. 2021. Wild bees as winners and losers: relative impacts of landscape composition, quality, and climate. Global Change Biology. 27:1250-1265. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15485.
- Chandler, J.W., Preisendanz, H.E., Veith, T.L., Elkin, K.R., Elliott, H.A., Watson, J.E., Kleinman, P.J. 2021. Role of concentrated flow pathways on the movement of pesticides through agricultural fields and riparian buffer zones. Transactions of the ASABE. 64(3):975-986. https://doi.org/10.13031/ trans.14221.
- Kar, S., Riazi, B., Gurian, P.L., Spatari, S., Adler, P.R., Parton, W.J. 2020. An optimization framework to identify key management strategies for improving biorefinery performance: A case study of winter barley production. Biofuels, Bioproducts, & Biorefining (Biofpr). 14:1296⿿1312. https://doi.org/10.1002/bbb.2141.
- Bean, A.R., Coffin, A.W., Arthur, D.K., Baffaut, C., Holifield Collins, C. D., Goslee, S.C., Ponce Campos, G.E., Sclater, V., Strickland, T.C., Yasarer, L.M. 2021. Regional frameworks for the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem research (LTAR) Network: Preliminary concepts and potential indicators. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 4:612785. https://doi. org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.612785.
- Rotz, C.A., Stout, R.C., Leytem, A.B., Feyereisen, G.W., Waldrip, H., Thoma, G., Holly, M., Bjorneberg, D.L., Baker, J.M., Vadas, P.A., Kleinman, P.J. 2021. Environmental assessment of United States dairy farms. Journal of Cleaner Production. 315. Article 128153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jclepro.2021.128153.
- Macrae, M., Jarvie, H., Brouwer, R., Gunn, G., Reid, K., Joosse, P., King, K.W., Kleinman, P.J., Smith, D.R., Williams, M.R., Zwonitzer, M. 2021. One size does not fit all: towards regional conservation practice guidance to reduce phosphorus loss risk in the Lake Erie watershed. Journal of Environmental Quality. 50(3):529-546. https://doi.org/10.1002/jeq2.20218.
- Weitzman, J.N., Groffman, P.M., Adler, P.R., Dell, C.J., Johnson, F.E., Lerch, R.N., Strickland, T.C. 2021. Drivers of hot spots and hot moments of denitrification in agricultural systems. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences. 126(7). Article e2020JG006234. https://doi.org/10. 1029/2020JG006234.
- Goodrich, D.C., Heilman, P., Anderson, M.C., Baffaut, C., Bonta, J.V., Bosch, D.D., Bryant, R.B., Cosh, M.H., Endale, D.M., Havens, S.C., Hedrick, A., Kleinman, P.J., Langendoen, E.J., Marks, D.G., Rigby Jr, J.R., Schomberg, H.H., Starks, P.J., Steiner, J., Strickland, T.C., Veith, T.L. 2020. The USDA-ARS experimental watershed network ⿿ Evolution, lessons learned, societal benefits, and moving forward. Water Resources Research. 57(2). Article e2019WR026473. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026473.
- Barnes, R.G., Rotz, C.A., Preisendanz, H.E., Watson, J.E., Elliott, H.A., Veith, T.L., Williams, C., Eaton, W., Brasier, K. 2021. Cover cropping and interseeding management practices to improve runoff quality from dairy farms in central Pennsylvania. Transactions of the ASABE. 1-34. https:// doi.org/10.13031/trans.14329..
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Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20
Outputs
Progress Report Objectives (from AD-416): Objective 1: Assess and improve sustainable intensification strategies of crop and integrated crop-livestock systems for farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes. Sub-objective 1A: Quantify long-term sustainabilities of �business as usual� (BAU) and �aspirational� (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 1B: Develop management and placement strategies for improving ecosystem service provisioning through diverse agricultural landscapes that integrate crop and livestock systems. Objective 2: Determine the sensitivity of farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes to climate variability and develop strategies for adapting agriculture to current and projected changes. Sub-objective 2A: Quantify effects of projected climate and potential adaptation strategies on long-term sustainabilities of �business as usual� (BAU) and �aspirational� (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through the use of farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 2B: Characterize the landscape-scale responses and trade- offs of agricultural ecosystem services, given projected climate and potential adaptation scenarios. Approach (from AD-416): Agriculture faces increasing demands for productivity and efficiency that must be balanced against pressures to continually improve stewardship of natural resources. Climate models from 1950 through 2100 predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Northeast, further complicating agricultural sustainability planning. Our research focuses on whole farms, watersheds, and landscapes to quantitatively evaluate both long-term sustainabilities and broader environmental impacts of various agricultural production systems under current and predicted climate. We will evaluate alternative production strategies based on economic viability, implementation feasibility, and impacts to ecosystem services and disservices. We are concerned with not only provisioning ecosystem services such as dairy, beef, and crop production but also supporting and regulating services like nutrient cycling and landscape diversity. Disservices from agriculture include greenhouse gas emissions and other nutrient losses to air and water. Our two objectives assess �business as usual� (BAU) and �aspirational� (ASP) agricultural production strategies for sustainable intensification at multiple scales. The (A) sub-objectives are farm-scale in detail and industry-wide in scope. The (B) sub-objectives focus on landscape-scale hydrology and ecology within the Northeast to inform both local and multi- regional research efforts. Objective 1 assesses strategies under recent climate conditions (1980-2005), and corroborates our modeling tools in representing BAU and ASP strategies. To be most valuable, however, developed strategies and tools must be successful under future climate conditions. Objective 2 corroborates our tools under historical climate (1960-1980) and applies them under future mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2080-2100) climate projections, assessing ASP strategies that most effectively meet the challenges and opportunities of future climate. We will collaborate with larger USDA-led research networks, including the Long-Term Agroecological Research network (LTAR), Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and Dairy Agroecosystems Working Group (DAWG). Such networking provides expertise and data on outcomes from management strategies for cropping and integrated crop-livestock systems that will be used to confirm results of the first objective and provide a basis for extrapolation of future systems for the second. We will analyze data using both simple and complex process-based simulation models, life cycle assessment, and advanced computational techniques. With an emphasis on sustainable intensification in accord with climate predictions, our research will support systems-level understandings of current and potential agricultural systems in the Northeast, and how these can continue to produce food and fuel in the future. Outcomes of this research will support farmers directly through management strategies and decision support tools, and will provide scientifically-valid data to federal and state programs aimed at improving nutrient management, conservation, and resource use efficiency. Progress was made on both objectives and their subobjectives, all of which fall under National Program Action Plan 216: Agricultural System Competitiveness and Sustainability and contributes to Component 1: Building agroecosystems for intensive, resilient production via GxExM; Component 2: Increasing efficiency of agroecosystems; and Component 3: Reaching agroecosystem potentials. Under Objective 1, Subobjective 1A, a comprehensive assessment was completed on the environmental sustainability of grass-based dairy farms in Pennsylvania. We found that this production strategy can provide environmental benefits to a local watershed, but due to a lower efficiency in milk production compared to larger confinement farms, this strategy increases the aggregate environmental impacts of regional and global supply chains. Working toward a national sustainability assessment of United States dairy farms, representative dairy farms were developed with preliminary environmental assessments for the Northeast, Southeast, Midwest and Northwest regions. Simulation analyses were completed using the Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) to determine environmental benefits and economic costs of using a cover crop, interseeded grass crop, or small grain double crop with corn production on Pennsylvania dairy farms. Reductions in sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus losses varied across the different management approaches used on farms with interseeding of annual grass in the growing corn crop providing the greatest reduction. Use of cover crops or interseeding increased the producer�s costs, but double cropping small grain silage with corn silage increased feed production providing economic benefit. Several beef cattle producing operations in the arid southwestern region of the U.S. were surveyed and interviewed to learn their production practices. Each ranch was modeled and simulated with the Integrated Farm System Model to study the environmental sustainability of their production system. These studies provide baseline information for representing cattle production strategies in this arid region, which will lead to the development of more sustainable practices. Under Subobjective 1B, crop-livestock rotations and management scenarios were evaluated for their effectiveness in economically reducing nutrient losses from crop fields and from riparian buffers. Watershed simulation modeling demonstrated the importance of best management practice planning at the local level in order to address both local and regional concerns within the Chesapeake Bay catchment. Analysis of field-level runoff showed that shallow-disk injection of dairy manure helps reduce phosphorus losses as compared to broadcast application of the manure. Sampling of concentrated flow path soils above and within riparian buffers provided information on the movement and persistence of row crop pesticides from application site to stream. Additionally, impacts of buffer designs on water quality losses were modeled to determine the potential for flexibility in the buffer design. Allowing harvesting in one zone of the buffer vegetation (either trees or grasses) was found to minimally impact water quality as compared to more conventional, non- harvested methods. However, under the highest input loading conditions, buffers with lower removal efficiencies removed more total mass than did buffers with high removal efficiencies. These results highlight the importance of evaluating effectiveness based on both percent removal and total mass removed. A workshop is currently being planned to evaluate risk assessment and risk management tools for vegetative filter strip performance. Another, more broadly-focused, workshop bringing together experts in soil health processes and water quality modeling is also in the planning stages. Two forage production models for dominant forage species -- orchardgrass, timothy, and perennial ryegrass � were parameterized to improve northeastern United States modeling of pasture production and forage systems. These models were developed in northern Europe, for similar climates and species. Models were tested against biomass data from previously-conducted small plot and field experiments in the northeastern United States. Finally, we quantified and evaluated strategies to reduce the hurdle rates for double cropping in corn-soybean growing regions in the US. We found that identifying a new market for straw, such as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol, significantly improved the economic viability of barley and wheat further north into the Corn Belt. We found that although rye biomass increased, it was never profitable to apply nitrogen fertilizer. Cereal rye as a biomass crop was only profitable in the southerly regions without application of nitrogen fertilizer. Considering the sensitivity of double crop rotation economics to soybean yields, and that barley impacts soybean yields less than wheat does in the northern regions, establishment of a bioenergy or pulp market for biomass could provide significant incentive for widespread planting of winter barley as a double crop in corn-soybean rotations. Under Objective 2, Subobjective 2A, we evaluated corn and alfalfa yield and evapotranspiration response to atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment predicted by three process-based cropping system models for six counties of Pennsylvania and New York. The three models simulated similar crop response to increasing carbon dioxide for grain yield, total biomass yield and harvest index, with predicted responses within the ranges measured in free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) experiments. Following this verification, the Integrated Farm System Model was used to evaluate the effect of increasing carbon dioxide and changing climate on double crop corn and rye silage systems on dairy farms in central Pennsylvania. The Integrated Farm System Model was evaluated in representing the performance and nutrient losses of corn production in the Northern Plains region using cattle manure without bedding, manure with bedding, urea fertilizer and no fertilization treatments. Following verification, 25-year simulations showed greater ammonia emission and soluble P runoff with use of feedlot and bedded manure compared to use of inorganic fertilizers, but life-cycle fossil energy use and greenhouse gas emission were decreased. Projected climate change by mid-century gave a small increase in simulated feed production in the Dakotas and a small decrease for irrigated corn in Nebraska. Climate change affected the three production systems similarly, so production and environmental impact differences among the fertilization systems under future climate were generally similar to those obtained under recent climate. Under Subobjective 2B, three northeastern Long-Term Agroecosystem Research watersheds were simulated under nine climate forecasts to determine early-, mid-, and late-century predictions of agricultural water quantity and quality. Comparisons across watershed characteristics and management practices are helping us to determine the features that are jointly most sensitive to predicted climate changes. Comparisons of complex models and simpler tools are also being used to determine the most effective way for conservationists to locate and select appropriate best management practices at the field-level. However, research on the impacts of climate change on agriculture in the Northeast and nationally often requires high-resolution spatially gridded projections of future temperature and precipitation. There are multiple sources of such data available, from different global models, different greenhouse gas scenarios, and different down-scaling algorithms. A consistent research infrastructure requires understanding the trade-offs among these sources, and practicality requires reducing the number of different sources that must be considered. A detailed comparison of thirty models identified a subset of five models that adequately captured potential climate variability for Pennsylvania. Additional comparisons across this suite of models and for additional gridding algorithms are underway to expand this analysis to the contiguous United States to facilitate climate studies for the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research network and other national projects. Weather and climate data have been provided to multiple Long- Term Agroecosystem Research working groups, and for multiple peer- reviewed and popular publications. Accomplishments 01 Barley feedstock for advanced fuel production. Reducing the carbon footprint of transportation fuels to replace gasoline is an important goal; identifying new crops and ways to produce ethanol with a low carbon footprint is a challenge. In this study ARS scientists in University Park, Pennsylvania, and university scientists quantified the carbon footprint of a new way to produce ethanol from barley. We found that ethanol could be produced from barley with a carbon footprint less than half that of gasoline, allowing it to meet the advanced fuel standard of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This study provided USEPA with the information necessary to determine if the process will qualify for advanced fuel production. 02 Water and soil key to crop diversity in U.S. Diverse agricultural landscapes contribute to ecosystem services such as pollinator habitat, nutrient cycling, and water provisioning, but little is known about the environmental constraints on crop diversity across the contiguous United States. An analysis of crop diversity from 2008-2019 identified the climatic and soils factors related to the number and diversity of crops grown regionally and nationally. Water availability, through both irrigation and rainfall, was the dominant driver. Planning for crop diversity will require consideration of future changes in precipitation patterns, also of the declining availability of water for irrigation. Novel agricultural systems may be required to maintain or increase crop diversity and the ecosystem service benefits it provides.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- Ranck, E., Holden, L., Dillon, J., Rotz, C.A., Soder, K.J. 2020. Economic and environmental impact of double cropping winter annuals and corn using the integrated farm system model. Journal of Dairy Science. 103:3804�3815.
- Goslee, S.C. 2020. Drivers of agricultural diversity in the contiguous United States. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 4(75):1-12.
- Kim, D., Stoddart, N., Rotz, C.A., Veltman, K., Chase, L., Cooper, J., Ingranham, P., Izaurralde, R., Jones, C.D., Gaillard, R., Aguirre-Villegas, H., Larson, R.A., Ruark, M., Salas, W., Jolliet, O., Thoma, G.J. 2019. Analysis of beneficial management practices to mitigate environmental impacts in dairy production systems around the Great Lakes. Agricultural Systems.176:1-12.
- Bolster, C.H., Baffaut, C., Nelson, N.O., Osmond, D.L., Cabrera, M.L., Ramirez-Avila, J.J., Sharpley, A.N., Veith, T.L., McFarland, A.M., Senaviratne, A.G., Pierzynski, G.M., Udawatta, R.P. 2019. Development of PLEAD: a database containing event-based runoff phosphorus loadings from agricultural fields. Journal of Environmental Quality. 48:510-517.
- Lohani, S., Baffaut, C., Thompson, A.L., Aryal, N., Bingner, R.L., Bjorneberg, D.L., Bosch, D.D., Bryant, R.B., Buda, A.R., Dabney, S.M., Davis, A.R., Duriancik, L.F., James, D.E., King, K.W., Kleinman, P.J., Locke, M.A., McCarty, G.W., Pease, L.A., Reba, M.L., Smith, D.R., Tomer, M. D., Veith, T.L., Williams, M.R., Yasarer, L.M. 2020. Performance of the Soil Vulnerability Index with respect to slope, digital elevation model resolution, and hydrologic soil group. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 75(1):12-27.
- Rotz, C.A., Stout, R.C., Holly, M.A., Kleinman, P.J. 2020. Regional assessment of dairy farm environmental footprints. Journal of Dairy Science. 130:3275-3288.
- Spatari, S., Staedel, A., Adler, P.R., Kar, S., Parton, W.J., Hicks, K.B., Mcaloon, A.J., Gurian, P.L. 2020. The role of biorefinery co-products, market proximity and feedstock environmental footprint in meeting biofuel policy goals for winter barley-to-ethanol. Energies. 1-15.
- Spiegal, S.A., Kleinman, P.J., Endale, D.M., Bryant, R.B., Dell, C.J., Goslee, S.C., Meinen, R.J., Flynn, K.C., Baker, J.M., Browning, D.M., McCarty, G.W., Bittman, S., Carter, J.D., Cavigelli, M.A., Duncan, E.W., Gowda, P.H., Li, X., Ponce, G., Raj, C., Silveira, M., Smith, D.R., Arthur, D.K., Yang, Q. 2020. Manuresheds: Advancing nutrient recycling in US agriculture. Agricultural Systems. 182:102813.
- Amin, M.G., Veith, T.L., Shortle, J.S., Karsten, H.D., Kleinman, P.J. 2020. Towards an efficient watershed-specific management plan using a variable source area hydrology watershed model. Journal of Environmental Quality. 1- 15.
- Hirt, C.C., Veith, T.L., Collick, A.S., Yetter, S.E., Brooks, R.P. 2020. Headwater stream condition and nutrient runoff: relating the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to empirical ecological measures in an agricultural watershed in pennsylvania. Journal of Environmental Quality. 1-20.
- Karki, R., Srivastava, P., Veith, T.L. 2019. Application of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) at the field-scale: categorizing methods and review of applications. Transactions of the ASABE. 63(2):513-522. doi:10. 13031/trans.13545
- Kibuye, F.A., Gall, H.E., Veith, T.L., Elkin, K.R., Elliott, H.A., Harper, J.P., Watson, J.E. 2019. Influence of hydrologic and anthropogenic drivers on emerging organic contaminants (EOCs) in drinking water sources in the Susquehanna River Basin. Environmental Pollution. 245:125583.
- Veith, T.L., Gall, H.E., Elkin, K.R. 2020. Characterizing transport of natural and anthropogenic constituents in a long-term agricultural watershed in the northeastern US. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Society. 75(3):319-329.
- Kibuye, F.A., Elkin, K.R., Gall, H.E., Swistock, B., Watson, J.E., Veith, T.L., Elliott, H.A. 2019. Occurrence, concentrations, and risks of pharmaceutical compounds in private wells in Central Pennsylvania. Journal of Environmental Quality. 48:1057-1066.
- Kyung Lee, E., Xuesong, Z., Adler, P.R., Kleppel, G.S., Xiaobo, X. 2020. Spatially and temporally explicit life cycle analysis of global warming, eutrophication and acidification from corn production in the U.S. Midwest. Journal of Cleaner Production. 242:1-11.
- Kyung Lee, E., Zhang, W., Adler, P.R., Xue, X., Lin, S., Feingolda, B.J., Haider, K.A., Romeiko, X.X. 2020. Projecting life-cycle environmental impacts of corn production in the U.S. Midwest under future climate scenarios using a machine learning approach. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology.714:1-11.
- Rotz, C.A., Holly, M., De Long, A., Egan, F., Kleinman, P.J. 2020. An environmental assessment of grass-based dairy production. Applied Animal Science. 184:1-9.
- Castano-Sanchez, J.P., Rotz, C.A., Karsten, H.D., Kemanian, A.R. 2020. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide effects on dairy crops in the northeast US: A comparison of model predictions and observed data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 291:1-10.
- Rotz, C.A. 2020. Environmental sustainability of livestock production. Meat and Muscle Biology. 4(2):11,1-18.
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Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19
Outputs
Progress Report Objectives (from AD-416): Objective 1: Assess and improve sustainable intensification strategies of crop and integrated crop-livestock systems for farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes. Sub-objective 1A: Quantify long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 1B: Develop management and placement strategies for improving ecosystem service provisioning through diverse agricultural landscapes that integrate crop and livestock systems. Objective 2: Determine the sensitivity of farm systems, watersheds, and landscapes to climate variability and develop strategies for adapting agriculture to current and projected changes. Sub-objective 2A: Quantify effects of projected climate and potential adaptation strategies on long-term sustainabilities of ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) dairy and beef production systems through the use of farm simulation and life cycle assessment. Sub-objective 2B: Characterize the landscape-scale responses and trade- offs of agricultural ecosystem services, given projected climate and potential adaptation scenarios. Approach (from AD-416): Agriculture faces increasing demands for productivity and efficiency that must be balanced against pressures to continually improve stewardship of natural resources. Climate models from 1950 through 2100 predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Northeast, further complicating agricultural sustainability planning. Our research focuses on whole farms, watersheds, and landscapes to quantitatively evaluate both long-term sustainabilities and broader environmental impacts of various agricultural production systems under current and predicted climate. We will evaluate alternative production strategies based on economic viability, implementation feasibility, and impacts to ecosystem services and disservices. We are concerned with not only provisioning ecosystem services such as dairy, beef, and crop production but also supporting and regulating services like nutrient cycling and landscape diversity. Disservices from agriculture include greenhouse gas emissions and other nutrient losses to air and water. Our two objectives assess ⿿business as usual (BAU) and ⿿aspirational (ASP) agricultural production strategies for sustainable intensification at multiple scales. The (A) sub-objectives are farm-scale in detail and industry-wide in scope. The (B) sub-objectives focus on landscape-scale hydrology and ecology within the Northeast to inform both local and multi- regional research efforts. Objective 1 assesses strategies under recent climate conditions (1980-2005), and corroborates our modeling tools in representing BAU and ASP strategies. To be most valuable, however, developed strategies and tools must be successful under future climate conditions. Objective 2 corroborates our tools under historical climate (1960-1980) and applies them under future mid-century (2040-2060) and late-century (2080-2100) climate projections, assessing ASP strategies that most effectively meet the challenges and opportunities of future climate. We will collaborate with larger USDA-led research networks, including the Long-Term Agroecological Research network (LTAR), Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and Dairy Agroecosystems Working Group (DAWG). Such networking provides expertise and data on outcomes from management strategies for cropping and integrated crop-livestock systems that will be used to confirm results of the first objective and provide a basis for extrapolation of future systems for the second. We will analyze data using both simple and complex process-based simulation models, life cycle assessment, and advanced computational techniques. With an emphasis on sustainable intensification in accord with climate predictions, our research will support systems-level understandings of current and potential agricultural systems in the Northeast, and how these can continue to produce food and fuel in the future. Outcomes of this research will support farmers directly through management strategies and decision support tools, and will provide scientifically-valid data to federal and state programs aimed at improving nutrient management, conservation, and resource use efficiency. Progress was made on both objectives and their subobjectives, all of which fall under National Program Action Plan 216: Agricultural System Competitiveness and Sustainability and contributes to Component 1: Building agroecosystems for intensive, resilient production via GxExM; Component 2: Increasing efficiency of agroecosystems; and Component 3: Reaching agroecosystem potentials. Under Objective 1, Subobjective 1A, a national Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of beef cattle production was completed providing important environmental impacts of beef cattle in the U.S. Average annual greenhouse gas emissions, reactive nitrogen (N) losses, fossil energy use and blue water consumption associated with beef cattle production were determined and compared to other reported sources for the U.S. These data provide a baseline for comparison to future assessments and the evaluation of potential benefits of mitigation strategies. This also provides information to support a complete life cycle assessment of beef including packing, processing, marketing, consumption and waste handling. A methodology was developed and used to assess important environmental footprints of dairy farms for the state of Pennsylvania using process- level simulation and cradle to farm-gate life cycle assessment. State level impacts and intensities were determined for greenhouse gas emissions, reactive nitrogen losses, fossil energy use and non- precipitation water consumption. From these metrics, dairy farms represented 1.6% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 0.3% of fossil energy use and 0.6% of fresh water consumption reported for the state. Perhaps the greatest concern of all environmental impacts is that of ammonia emissions where dairy farms were found to emit about half that estimated to be coming from the state. Additionally, a simulation analysis of beef cattle systems in New Mexico was completed comparing performance and environmental footprints for wet and dry climate years. Compared to wet years, dry years provided slightly lower greenhouse gas emission, slightly lower energy use, greater reactive nitrogen loss and much greater water consumption per unit of beef produced. Under Objective 1, Subobjective 1B, simulation models and economic assessments were conducted at the crop, farm, and watershed scale to begin exploring system-wide impacts of sustainable intensification on ecosystem services in northeastern U.S. Watershed-level water quality simulation scenarios were created and corroborated for three Long-term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) watersheds in Pennsylvania (Spring Creek, Conewago, and Mahantango) using Topo-SWAT, which is a variation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrologic water quality model that accounts for variable source hydrology. Scenarios created included current management baselines, representation of the Watershed Implementation Plan suggestions for each watershed, and ⿿Smarter placement of the Watershed Implementation Plan practices designed to provide more cost-effective watershed-wide pollution reduction. A manuscript comparing the efficiencies of management practices simulated for Spring Creek, and the potentials of those practices to contribute toward state total maximum daily load (TMDL) goals, is currently under journal review. At the farm level, an assessment of crop intensification on farm net income was completed. Crop intensification had a negative impact on net returns in Pennsylvania, but was generally neutral to positive from Maryland south to North Carolina. Although positive, incorporating payment for ecosystem services (PES) did not have a large impact on net return. When crop residues were not harvested, carbon sequestration was the largest component of PES. However, when crop residues were harvested, carbon sequestration values were more similar to leached nitrate values, while nitrous oxide was much lower. Due to nitrogen fertilizer costs, winter rye was never profitable and was always less profitable than other double crop options. Winter barley was closer to overcoming hurdle rates since it has less impact on soybean yields than winter wheat north of the 40th parallel. Given current PES payment levels, the addition of local markets for winter crop residue are crucial to incentivizing double cropping. Establishment of a bioenergy or pulp market for biomass would likely provide such a market and could potentially incentivize widespread planting of winter barley as a double crop in corn-soybean rotations. At the crop level, the Light Interception and Utilization Simulator (LINTUL3) and the World Food Studies (WOFOST) process-based crop production models, both extensively used in Europe and the United States, were parameterized for the common forage species orchardgrass, perennial ryegrass, and white clover, and validated against existing forage production datasets. These models are being used to improve understanding of potential forage production capacity in the northeastern U.S. under climate change scenarios. Under Objective 2, Subobjective 2A, a comprehensive assessment of the effects of climate change on the environmental performance and productivity of typical dairy farms in the northeastern U.S. was completed along with an evaluation of strategies for adapting to climate change. Adoption of farm-specific beneficial management practices were found to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient losses from the farms under current climate conditions and stabilize the environmental impact in future climate conditions. Thus, appropriate management changes can help our dairy farms become more sustainable under current climate and better prepared to adapt to future climate variability. Under Objective 2, Subobjective 2B, the recent version of SWAT was modified to include dynamic carbon dioxide input and account for the resulting impacts to evapotranspiration. The modified version was corroborated using climatic trends from a set of climate projection models for the Pennsylvania Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) watersheds. Additionally, consistent spatial and temporal datasets for soils, climate, and topography for the continental U.S. are required for multiple projects including the USDA LTAR, NRCS National Resources Inventory (NRI), and NRCS Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), and for forage suitability group development. Considerable effort has been devoted to identifying and calculating derived metrics related to the plant requirements of light, temperature, and water, including climate indices relevant to plant growth, including the BIOCLIM and CLIMDEX metrics, and the metrics proposed in the NRCS Range and Pasture Handbook. Pollinator-specific indices have also been developed and tested against Pennsylvania apiary survival data, thus improving the representation of agriculturally-important ecosystem services, as well as providing valuable information to beekeepers. Indices have been calculated for both current and predicted future climates. Derived topographic variables including slope, aspect, curvature, and topographic convergence have been calculated from the 30m National Elevation Dataset for the continental U.S., and supplemented with both Cropland Data Layer and National Land Cover Data for 2008-2018. Digital soils mapping products at several scales complement standard soils products. Accomplishments 01 A national assessment of U.S. beef cattle production. The U.S. beef industry is a major contributor to the national and global food system and economy with a potential for increasing production to feed the growing domestic population while meeting expanding export markets. Increasing productivity in an environmentally, economically, and socially sustainable manner is of concern to both producers and consumers. Our cattle production systems are very complex with many components and interactions, so quantifying and measuring sustainability is challenging. Through a comprehensive national assessment, ARS scientists at University Park, Pennsylvania in collaboration with the National Cattlemen⿿s Beef Association found beef cattle production emitted 3.3% of greenhouse house emissions, produced 15% of reactive nitrogen losses, used 0.7% of fossil energy and consumed 5.8% of fresh water when compared to current estimates for the nation. These data provide a baseline for comparison to future assessments and the evaluation of potential benefits of mitigation strategies. 02 USDA⿿s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) improves water quality of Chesapeake Bay. USDA⿿s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is the nation⿿s flagship private-land conservation program and has played a critical role in state and federal efforts to improve the health of the Chesapeaking Bay. In the six states contributing to the Chesapeake Bay watershed, CRP has funded over 20,000 riparian (stream area) buffer contracts. To evaluate the performance of riparian buffers in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, a ⿿One-USDA project was implemented (USDA⿿s ARS, FSA, NRCS, FS) with support from a broader consortium of researchers that included scientists from U.S. Geological Survey and Penn State. They found that riparian forested buffers reduce nitrogen pollution by 17 to 56%, and phosphorus pollution by 4 to 20%, while riparian grass buffers were roughly equally effective. However, filtration of runoff by riparian buffers is regularly undermined by gullies and ditches that route runoff water around buffers, reducing the potential for buffers to treat runoff from adjacent lands by an average of 37% across the study area. Findings point to the need to bundle conservation practices, and programs, to optimize the performance of riparian buffers.
Impacts
(N/A)
Publications
- Adler, P.R., Hums, M., McNeal, F.M., Spatari, S. 2018. Potential of farm scale crush facilities to improve profitability of soybean production. Global Change Biology Bioenergy. 210:1635-1649.
- Cordeiro, M.R., Rotz, C.A., Kroebel, R., Beauchemin, K., Hunt, D., Bittman, S., Koenig, K.M., McKenzie, D.B. 2019. Prospects of increased dairy farm forage production under climate and land-use changes in Newfoundland, Canada. Agronomy. 9(1):2-20.
- Gunn, K.M., Holly, M.A., Veith, T.L., Buda, A.R., Prasad, R., Rotz, C.A., Soder, K.J., Stoner, A. 2019. Projected heat stress challenges and abatement opportunities for U.S. milk production. PLoS One. 14(3):1-21.
- Holly, M.A., Gunn, K.M., Rotz, C.A., Kleinman, P.J. 2019. Dairy farming strategy and herd size effects on productivity, feed utilization, and manure management in Pennsylvania. Journal of Dairy Science. 35(3):325-338.
- Rau, B.M., Adler, P.R., Dell, C.J., Saha, D., Kemanian, A. 2019. Herbaceous perennial biomass production on frequently saturated marginal soils: Influence on N2O emissions and shallow groundwater. Biomass and Bioenergy. 122:90-98.
- Rotz, C.A., Asem-Hiablie, S., Place, S., Thoma, G. 2018. Environmental footprints of beef cattle production in the United States. Agricultural Systems. 169:1-13.
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