Progress 01/01/01 to 09/30/16
Outputs This project anticipates trends and emerging issues by conducting high-quality, objective economic research as part of the USDA ERS mission to inform and enhance public and private decision making on economic and policy issues related to food, farming, natural resources and rural America. Findings and impacts are represented through a variety of outputs including reports, journal articles, briefings, and conference presentations. ERS shapes its research program and products to serve those who routinely make or influence public policy and program decisions. Key clientele include White House and USDA policy officials; the U.S. Congress; program administrators/managers; other Federal agencies; State and local government officials; and organizations, including farm and industry groups interested in public policy issues. Current listings of ERS published reports and data products, and journal articles by ERS researchers, can be found at www.ers.usda.gov
Impacts (N/A)
Publications
- Adjemian, M., "A Short-run Demand Flexibility System for U.S. Agricultural Commodities",
- Adjemian, M., "Chinese delegation (SAG) briefing on the announcment effects associated with important USDA reports",
- Adjemian, M., "Dodd-Frank Derivatives Reform & The Grain Markets", University of Arkansas Grain Conference, Fayetteville, Arkansas, pp.
- Adjemian, M., "Dodd-Frank Derivatives Reform", pp.
- Adjemian, M., "Does WASDE Provide News about Cotton?", CFTC Economists, Washington, D.C., January 28, 2010. pp.
- Adjemian, M., "Quantifying the WASDE Announcement Effect", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 94, pp. 238-256
- Adjemian, M., "USDA Data Products Seminar: Discussant", pp.
- Adjemian, M., Garcia, P., Irwin, S., Smith, A., "Solving the Commodity Markets� Non-Convergence Puzzle", U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Adjemian, M., Garcia, P., Irwin, S.H., and Smith, A., Non-convergence in Domestic Commodity Futures Markets: Causes, Consequences and Remedies, Economic Information Bulletin, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Adjemian, M., Irwin, Scott H., "Price Discovery in Real-time", pp.
- Adjemian, M., "Emergence and Impact of the WASDE Report", pp.
- Adjemian, M., "Futures Market Trading Hours",
- Adjemian, M., "Intraday Price Volatility Briefing",
- Adjemian, M., Kuethe, T., Eugene L. Kunda, "The Inconvenience Cost: A Portfolio Approach to Non-Convergence Between Cash and Futures Prices",
- Adjemian, M., Kuethe, T., Kunda, Gene, "The Inconvenience Cost: A Portfolio Approach to Non-Convergence Between Cash and Futures Prices", Agricultural Finance Review, pp.
- Adjemian, M., Non-converging futures and cash prices likely due to storage-rate difference, pp.
- Adjemian, M., Plato, G., The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act: Changes to the Regulation of Derivatives and the Impact on Agribusiness, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Adjemian, M., Sexton, R., Saitone, T., "A Framework to Analyze the Performance of Thinly Traded Agricultural Commodity Markets", pp.
- Adjemian, M.K., and J.P. Janzen, "Wheat Prices Driven by Supply and Demand, Not Speculators", U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Adjemian, M.K., B.W. Brorsen, W. Hahn, T. L. Saitone, and R.J. Sexton, Thin Markets in U.S. Agriculture: Importance and Implications, Economic Information Bulletin, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Alberto Jerardo, "Producer and Import Prices Drive Food Cost Inflation", IATRC, Seattle, Washington, pp.
- Alberto R. Jerardo, "Adding Imports to Producer Price Measures for Food", Seattle, WA, pp.
- Allen, E., "El Mercado de Ma�z: Tendencias Mundiales", Buenos aires , Argentina, pp.
- Allen, E., "USDA Grains & Oilseeds Outlook", Crystal City, Va., pp.
- Allen, E., Record U.S. Corn Exports Due To Strong International Demand, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Allen, E., Valdes, C., Will Structural Structural Change in Brazil's Corn industry Alter the seasonal Pattern of U.S. Corn Exports?, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Edward Allen's work station, pp.
- Arnade, C. and D. Kelch, 2007, "Estimation of Area Elasticities from a Standard Profit Function", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol 89(3), pp. 727-737
- Arnade, C. and G. Vocke, 2015, "Seasonal Variation in the Price Discovery Process of International Wheat", Agribusiness, pp.
- Arnade, C. and L. Hoffman, 2015, "The Impact of Price Variability on Cash/Futures Market Relationships:", Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Vol. 5, [issue 5], pp.
- Arnade, C., Cooper, J., "Price Expectations and Supply Response", selected paper, AAEA, washington DC, pp.
- Baker, A., Lutman, H., Feed Year in Review (Domestic) 2008/09, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Baker, A., Lutman, H., Feed Year in Review (Domestic), U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Baldwin, K., MacDonald, S., Childs, N., "A New Approach to Rice Price Modeling", paper presented to Rice Technical Working Group, Biloxi, Mississippi, pp.
- Baldwin, K., MacDonald, S., Childs, N., U.S. Rice Prices and Global Economic Integration, Economic Information Bulletin, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Baldwin, K., MacDonald, S., Childs, N., U.S. Rice Prices and Global Economic Integration, U.S. Department of Agriculture, M:\FC\STAFF\SMACDONA\price\rice\E Outlook, pp.
- Blayney, D., Toasa, J., "On the elasticities of Whey", pp.
- Carter C.A. , A.D. Smith, J.P. Janzen, and M.K. Adjemian, Understanding Wheat Futures Prices, Economic Research Report, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Cooper, J., Motamed, M., Food and Commodity Price Stabilization Policies: A Synthesis, Economic Research Report, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 100 pp.
- D'Antoni, J., Detre, Joshua, "Are Agribusiness Stocks an Investor Safe Haven?", Agricultural Finance Review, pp.
- Dohlman, E., Barry Goodwin, Randy Schnepf, "Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment", Applied Economics, pp.
- Dohlman, E., Schnepf, R., Goodwin, Barry, "Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment", NCR-134 Conference, St. Louis, MO, pp.
- Dohlman, E., Schnepf, R., Goodwin, Barry, "Modeling Soybean Prices in a Changing Policy Environment", Presentation at Eleventh Federal Forecasters Conference, washington, DC, pp.
- Du, X.; McPhail, L., "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets", pp.
- Elbehri, A., Philip L. Paarlberg, "Price Behavior in Corn Market with Identity Preserved Types", AAEA Meeting, Montreal, Canada, July 27, 2003. pp.
- Du, Xiaodong; McPhail, Lihong, "Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets",
- Du, Xiaodong; McPhail, Lihong, "Inside the Black Box: The Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets", The Energy Journal, Vol. 33, No. 2, 2012, pp. 171-194
- Edward W. Allen, "The International Market Outlook for Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans", Mexico city, Mexico, September 2, 2010. pp.
- Gerald Plato, "Forward Contracting and Hedging in Voltaile Commodity Markets", pp.
- Hahn, W., Price transmission among weekly wholesale beef and cattle markets, Economic Research Report, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Hoffman, L., "Futures Markets Basics: Mechanics, Regulation, Considerations for a Successful Contract, and Use of Hedging and Options", pp.
- Hoffman, L., "Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average U.S. Corn Price", pp.
- Hoffman, L., "Futures Markets Basics: Mechanics, Regulation, Considerations for a Successful Contract, and Use of Hedging and Options", Workshop presentations made to Serbian Grain Fund: Operation and Use of Commodity Futures Markets, Belgrade, Serbia, September 17, 2013. pp.
- Hoffman, L., "Overivew of USDA Commodity Outlook Program", A presentation to USDA Cochran Fellowship Progam, Ag Statistics--Dom. Rep., USDA/NASS, 7/22/2016, Washington, D.C., pp.
- Hoffman, L., "Overivew of USDA's Commodity Outlook Program", A presentation to USDA's Cochran Fellowship Program, Ag. Statistics--Dom. Rep., USDA/NASS, 7/22/2016, Washington, D..C., pp.
- Hoffman, L., "Using Futures Prices to Forecast U.S. Corn Prices: Model Performance with Increased Price Volatility", Invited presentation to workshop on "Methods to Analyze Price Volatility." (ECJRC)(IPTS), Seville, Spain, January 28, 2010. 22 pp.
- Hoffman, L., Meyer, L., "Forecasting the U.S. Farm Price of Upland Cotton: An Evaluation of a Futures Price Forecasting Model", 21st Federal Forecasters Conference, Conference paper, Washington, D.C., pp.
- Hoffman, L., Meyer, L., "Forecasting the U.S. Farm Price of Upland Cotton: An Evaluation of a Futures Price Model", 21st Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington, D.C., 21 pp.
- Hoffman, L., Plato, G., Nicole Aulerich, "New Traders in Corn, Soybean, and Wheat Futures Markets Receive Increased Scrutiny", U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Hoffman, Linwood A., Nicole Aulerich, Convergence Performance of Expiring Agricultural Futures and Cash Prices, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Hopkins, J., "2015 Outloook on Farm Incomes in Maryland and Nationally", pp.
- Isengildina-Massa, Olga and MacDonald, Stephen, "Forecasting U.S. Cotton Prices in a Changing Market", Advances in Business and Management Forecasting; Vol - 9, Lawrence, Kenneth and Klimberg, Ronald (Eds.), Emerald Publishing.
- Janzen, J.P. and M.K. Adjemian, "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Determination", paper to be presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, July 31, 2016. pp.
- Jekanowski, M., "US Grains and Oilseeds Situation and Outlook", Industry, Annapolis, MD, pp.
- Jekanowski, M., "US Grains and Oilseeds Situation and Outlook", pp.
- Johnson, D., ""The Outlook for U.S. Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat"", Presentation to Agricultural Outlook Conference organized by China's National Grain Bureau, July 17-, Beijing, China, July 17, 2004. pp.
- Karali, B., O. Isengildina-Massa, S.H. Irwin, and M.K. Adjemian, "Changes in Informational Value and the Market Reaction to USDA Reports in the Big Data Era", paper to be presented at AAEA Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, July 31, 2016. pp.
- Langley, Suchada, May Peters, Paul Westcott, Ephraim Leibtag, Linwood Hoffman, Gerald Plato, Andrea Woolverton, Agapi Somwaru, Mildred Haley, and Richard Stillman, High Commodity Prices and U.S. Agricultural Sector: Adjustments in a Changing Global Market Environment, Economic Information Bulletin, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Lihong Lu McPhail, Xiaodong Du, Andrew Muhammad, 2012, "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: the Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy", Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics, 44(3), pp. 401-410
- Isengildina-Massa, O., B. Karali, S.H. Irwin, M.K. Adjemian, and X. Cao, "The Value of USDA Information in a Big Data Era", paper presented at the NCCC-134 conference, St. Louis, MO, pp.
- Isengildina-Massa, O., MacDonald, S. and R. Xie, "A Comprehensive Evaluation of USDA Cotton Forecasts", Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, pp.
- Isengildina-Massa, O., Tysinger, D., Gerard, P., MacDonald, S., "What Can we Learn from our Mistakes?: Evaluating the Benefits of Correcting Inefficiencies in USDA Cotton Forecasts.", Paper presented to Southern Agricultural Economics Association meeting, Corpus Christi, TX, pp.
- Linwood A. Hoffman, "Overview of ERS/USDA Commodity Outlook Program", AAEA summer meetings 2016, Extension Section--Crops outlook session, Boston, Massachusetts, pp.
- Linwood A. Hoffman, "Using Futures Prices to Forecast U.S. Corn Prices: Model Performance with Increased Price Volatility", Invited paper presented to workshop on "Methods to Analyze Price Volatility." (ECJRC)(IPTS), Seville, Spain, January 28, 2010. 30 pp.
- MacDonald, S., "CHINA�S COTTON POLICY: NEW DIRECTIONS IN 2014", Paper presented at USDA's 90th Annual Outlook Forum, Washington, DC, pp.
- Linwood A. Hoffman, 2011, ""Using Futures Prices to Forecast U.S. Corn Prices: Model Performance with Increased Price Volatility" chapter 7 in Methods to Analyze Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility", Methods to Analyze Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility: Chapter 7 "Using Futures Prices to Forecast U.S. Corn Prices: Model Performance with Increased Price Volatility.", Isabelle Piot-Lepetit and Robert M'Barek (Eds.), Springer Science + Business Media LLC, New York, New York.
- Linwood A. Hoffman, Xiaoli L. Etienne, Scott H. Irwin, Evelyn V. Colino, and Jose I. Toasa, "Forecast Performance of WASDE Price Projections for U.S. Corn", pp.
- Livingston, M., Roberts, M., John Rust, "Optimal Corn and Soybean Rotations", AAEA Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL, pp.
- MacDonald, S., Isengildina-Massa, Olga, "Adjustment Strategies for Forecast Smoothing: A Soybean Production Forecasts Case Study", Paper presented at Federal Forecasters Conference, Washington, DC, pp.
- MacDonald, S., Isengildina-Massa, Olga, "Information Rigidity and Correcting Inefficiency in USDA�s Commodity Forecasts", poster presented at AAEA annual meeting, Seattle, WA, pp.
- MacDonald, S., Isengildina-Massa, Olga; Xie, Ran; Sharp, Julia, "Smoothing in USDA�s Commodity Forecasts", Paper presented at NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting and Market Risk Managemen, St. Louis, MO, June 14, 2013. pp.
- Mark Ash, Erik Dohlman, Oil Crops Situation and Outlook Yearbook, OCS-2006, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 81 pp.
- McPhail, L., "Ethanol is now a global player", U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- McPhail, L., "US ethanol lowers global crude oil prices", U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Plato, G., Hoffman, L., "Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery", pp.
- McPhail, L., 2011, "U.S. Ethanol Use Dampens Global Crude Oil Prices", U.S. Department of Agriculture, December, pp.
- McPhail, L., Babcock, B., 2012, "Impact of US biofuel policy on US corn and gasoline price variability", Energy, 37, pp. 505-513
- McPhail, L., Du, X., "Ethanol Strengthens the Link between Agriculture and Energy Markets", U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- McPhail, L., Du, X., and Muhammad, A., "Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: the Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy", 2012 SAEA Annual Meeting, Birmingham, Alabama, February 7, 2012. pp.
- McPhail, L., Muhammad, A., Du, X., Disentangling Corn Price Volatility: the Role of Global Demand, Speculation, and Energy, Economic Research Report, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Nicole Aulerich, Linwood Hoffman, and Gerald Plato, Issues and Prospects in Agricultural Futures Markets: New Entrants, Price Volatility, and Market Performance Implications, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Nigatu, G., Adjemian, M., "The U.S. Role in the Price Determination of Major Agricultural Commodities", Selected paper prepared for presentation at the 2016 AAEA Annual Meeting July 31 -August 2, 2016, Boston, MA, pp.
- Olga Isengildina-Massa, Berna Karali, Scott Irwin, Michael Adjemian, "The Value of USDA Information in a Big Data Era", NCCC-134 conference, St Louis, MO, April 19, 2016. pp.
- Peters, M., Langley, S., Westcott, P., "Agricultural Commodity Price Spikes in the 1970s and 1990s: Valuable Lessons for Today", Amber Waves, March, 2009, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
- Plato, G., Hoffman, L., "Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery", 2007 NCCC-134 conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting and Risk Mnagement, Chicago, Illinois, pp.
- Plato, G., Hoffman, L., "Price Discovery and Convergence of Futures and Cash Prices", Selected conference paper for NCCC-134, St. Louis, Missouri, 18 pp.
- Plato, G., Hoffman, L., "Price Discovery and Convergence of Futures and Cash Prices", Selected paper presentaion to NCCC-134, St. Louis, Missouri, April 19, 2010. 20 pp.
- Plato, G., Hoffman, L., "Price Discovery in U.S. and Foreign Commodity Futures Markets: The Brazilian Soybean Example", Selected paper presentation at NCCC-134, April 18-19. 2011, St. Louis, Missouri-- NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting and Market Risk Management,, April 18, 2011. 13 pp.
- Plato, G., Meyer, L., "Influence of E-commerce on Cotton Price Discovery", Paper to be presented at Beltwide Cotton Conference, New Orleans, LA January 7, 2005, pp.
- Sarahelen Thompson, "Dodd-Frank Derivatives Reform", Paris, France, February 2, 2011. pp.
- Thomas Capehart, "Outlook for Corn", presentation at AAEA Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, pp.
- Westcott, P., "2012 U.S. Drought--Effects on Crops (through August WASDE)", ARS National Program Leaders meeting, Beltsville, MD, August 23, 2012. 15 pp.
- Westcott, P., "2012 U.S. Drought--Effects on Crops (through September WASDE)", Distance Learning seminar, Distance Learning institutions, October 9, 2012. 13 pp.
|