ANIMAL PRODUCTS - ANIMAL PRODUCTS PRICE ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

• Sponsoring Institution: Economic Research Service/USDA
• Project Status: ACTIVE
• Funding Source: USDA INHOUSE
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0433752
• Project Start Date: Oct 1, 2008
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2025
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
USDA/ERS
1800 M STREET NW
WASHINGTON,DC 20036

Performing Department
Economic Research Service

Non Technical Summary
ERS produces assessments of conditions impacting domestic markets and trade for livestock, dairy, and poultry industries. Methods for providing more accurate estimates of market conditions are also examined.

Animal Health Component

100%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

0%

Applied

100%

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
601	6110	3010	100%

Knowledge Area
601 - Economics of Agricultural Production and Farm Management;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

animal products

demand

forecasting

markets

prices

supply

trade

Goals / Objectives
A variety of factors may impact supply, demand, trade, and prices of animal products, with forecasts of these measures continually changing. Livestock, dairy, and poultry trade has increased as the U.S. imports and exports more product throughout the world, with Canada and Mexico being the largest destinations of U.S. product, but others such as Asia also being particularly noteworthy in recent years. A variety of factors may impact livestock, dairy, and poultry markets and thus supply, demand, trade, and price forecasts. These may include but by no means are limited to continually evolving vertical coordination and concentration at various segments along the supply chain; changes in trade agreements; animal disease events; consumer preferences for various livestock, dairy, poultry, and related products as well as specific attributes of these products such as organic or cage-free; exchange rates; and many others. ERS outlook and research staff must continually monitor these factors and consider the most appropriate methods for analyzing their impacts on livestock, dairy, and poultry markets. Key areas of ERS research addressing price analysis and forecasting for the livestock, dairy, and poultry industries include: - Monthly analysis of outlook for domestic livestock, dairy, and poultry markets, including supply, demand, trade, and prices. - Longer-term analysis of the influence of specific factors in livestock, dairy and poultry markets, such as animal disease, consumer preferences, trade agreements, and market structure. - Improved methods for market forecasting in livestock, dairy, and poultry.

Project Methods
ERS has access to a wide array of data that allow for comprehensive analysis of livestock, dairy, and poultry production and markets. Data from various USDA agencies and other sources allow for monthly forecasting of supply, demand, trade, and prices of meat and poultry products via the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates process. Forecasts for meat and poultry are reported monthly in ERS's Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Newsletter. These data may also be used to conduct more in-depth examination of markets that are published in various peer-reviewed ERS and other (i.e., journal) publications when examining a specific topic impacting these markets or a method used in forecasting. A variety of methods including econometric, operations research, and others may be used to analyze these markets using various software packages available at ERS.

Progress 01/01/01 to 09/30/16

Outputs
This project anticipates trends and emerging issues by conducting high-quality, objective economic research as part of the USDA ERS mission to inform and enhance public and private decision making on economic and policy issues related to food, farming, natural resources and rural America. Findings and impacts are represented through a variety of outputs including reports, journal articles, briefings, and conference presentations. ERS shapes its research program and products to serve those who routinely make or influence public policy and program decisions. Key clientele include White House and USDA policy officials; the U.S. Congress; program administrators/managers; other Federal agencies; State and local government officials; and organizations, including farm and industry groups interested in public policy issues. Current listings of ERS published reports and data products, and journal articles by ERS researchers, can be found at www.ers.usda.gov

Impacts
(N/A)

Publications

• Arnade, C., "Shock Absorbing Prices-A Look at Cattle and Feed", AAEA audience, Long Beach, California, pp.
• Arnade, Carlos, Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr., Keithly Jones, "Derived Demand for Cattle Feeding Inputs", paper presented to AAEA, Providence, RI, July 24, 2005. pp.
• C. G. Davis ,D. P. Blayney ,S. T. Yen , and J. Cooper, 2010, "An analysis of at-home demand for ice cream in the United States", Journal of Dairy Science, Vol. 92, Issue 12, pp. 6210-6216
• Adjemian, M., A. Smith, "A New Approach to Estimating the Demand Elasticity for Agricultural Commodities", ERS MTED Seminar, Washington, D.C., pp.
• Adjemian, M., Smith, A., "A New Approach to Estimating the Price Flexibility of Demand for Agricultural Commodities", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, pp.
• Hahn, W., "Another Look at Random-Coefficient Meat Demand", 2001 AAEA Meetings, Chicago, IL, pp.
• Hahn, W., "Beef and Pork Values and Prices Spreads Explained", Electronic Outlook Report, LDPM11801, pp.
• Hahn, W., "ERS Experience with the Retail Price Reporting Provisions of the Mandatory Livestock Price Reporting Act", 2001 AAEA Meetings, Chicago, IL, August 6, 2001. pp.
• Hahn, W., Jones, K., "Meat Demand Specification: Should it be Levels or Differences?", pp.
• Hahn, W., Mathews, K., "Wholesale Demand for Beef by Quality", presented at SAEA meetings, Orlando, Florida, February 6, 2006. pp.
• Hahn, W., Perry, J., Southard, L., Comparing Two Sources of Retail Meat Price Data, Economic Research Report, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
• Hahn, William F., and Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr., 2007, "Characteristics and Hedonic Pricing of Differentiated Beef Demands", Agricultural Economics, vol 36, pp. 377-393
• Haley, M., "Mandatory Price Reporting Background and Essentials", AnnuAL Meeting of the Ontario Pork Board, Ontario, Canada, March 14, 2001. pp.
• Jones, K., "Price Volatility and Transmission in the Hog and Pork Markets", pp.
• Jones, K., "Price Volatility and Transmission in the Hog and Pork Markets", Presentation for SAEA association meeting, Little Rock, Arkansaas, February 7, 2005. pp.
• Jones, K., "Price Volatility and Transmission in the Hog and Pork Markets", Selected paper presentation at SAEA Annual Meeting, Little Rock, Arkansas, February 5, 2005. pp.
• Jones, K., "Price Volatility in the Livestock Sector: The Case of the Beef Cattle and Hog Markets", Draft in review, pp.
• Jones, K., Hahn, W., Andrew Mohammed, "Draft in review", pp.
• Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr, B. Wade Brorsen, William F. Hahn, Carlos Arnade, Jim MacDonald, Erik Dohlman, 2015, Mandatory Price Reporting, Market Efficiency, and Price Discovery in Livestock Markets, LDPM-254-01, U.S. Department of Agriculture, September. pp.
• Kenneth H. Mathews, Jr., Carlos Arnade, Keithly Jones, "Derived Demand for Cattle Feeding Inputs", Journal of Agribusiness, Vol. 26, Issue 1, pp. 41-60
• Miller, J., "Concentration, Thin Spot Markets, and Dairy Programs", presentaion at Minnesota-Wisconsin Dairy Policy Conference, Bloomington MN, April 4, 2005. pp.
• Miller, J., 2005, "Thin Markets Threaten Dairy Programs", Hoard's Dairyman, October, pp. 655
• Nelson, K., "Livestock Price Reporting", 2001 AAEA Meetings, Chicago, IL, August 7, 2001. pp.
• Perry, J., "Enhanced Retail Meat Price Reporting",
• Perry, J., MacDonald, J., Nelson, K., Hahn, W., Arnade, C., Did the Mandatory Requirement Aid the Market? Impact of the Livetsock Mandatory Reporting Act, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
• Perry, J., Southard, L., 2003, "Retail Scanner Data", Amber Waves, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, April, pp. 12-13
• Pritchett, Johnson, Thilmany, and Hahn, 2007, "Consumer Responses to Recent BSE Events", JOURNAL OF FOOD DISTRIBUTION RESEARCH, VOL 38; NUMB 2, pp. 57-68
• Southard, L., "Enhanced Retail Meat Price Reporting Particularly Lamb", American Lamb Council Meeting, Washington, DC, February 6, 2003. pp.
• Southard, L., "Enhanced Retail Meat Price Reporting", 2001 Midwest/Great Plains & Western Outlook Conference, St. Louis, Missouri, August 16, 2001. pp.
• Southard, L., "Enhanced Retail Meat Price Reporting, Particularly Beef", NCBA Annual Meeting, Nashville, TN, January 30, 2003. pp.
• Perry, J., "Publishing Retail Meat Prices Derived from Grocery Store Scanner Data", AAEA, Long Beach, CA, July 28, 2002. pp.
• Perry, J., MacDonald, J., "Mandatory Livestock Price Reporting: What has it acheived?", Amber Waves, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, pp.
• Southard, L., "Firm Confidentiality Versus Public Information Demand", 2001 AAEA Meetings, Chicago, IL, August 7, 2001. pp.
• Southard, L., "Price Reporting", Presentation to the Technical Advisory Committee, Livestock Marketing Information Center, Breckenridge, Colorado, June 23, 2004. pp.
• William Hahn, Hayden Stewart, Donald P. Blayney, and Christopher G. Davis, "Modeling Price Transmission between Farm and Retail Prices: A Soft Switches Approach", Agricultural Economics, pp.
• Southard, L., "Retail Meat Purchase Price Reporting", 2001 AAEA Meetings, Chicago, IL, August 7, 2001. pp.
• Vandeveer, M., "Moderator's Introduction to Organized symposium "Evaluation of the Dairy Options Pilot Program"", American Ag Econ Association Meetings, Montreal, Canada, July 27, 2003. pp.
• Vandeveer, M., Blayney, D., Maynard, Leigh; Heifner, Richard; Crawford, Terry; Buschena, David, The dairy options pilot program and risk management in dairy: A Report to the Risk Management Agency, USDA, pp.
• William Hhan, Hayden Stewart, Donald Blayney, Christopher Davis, "Farm to Retail Price Transmission: The case of Cheddar and Mozzarella Cheeses", selected paper AAEA 2015, San Franciso, California, pp.