Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20
Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. In an empirical analysis of shaded fuelbreaks that burned during the 2014 Bald Fire (15,950 ha on the Lassen National Forest, California, USA), we found that overall fire severity was reduced in the treated areas relative to untreated. A non⿐linear mixed effects model estimates that the reduction was detected more than 400 m into the treated area, greater than the standard width of the prescribed fuelbreak. Both pre⿐ and post⿐fire species composition differed between treated and untreated forest, with few living stems remaining in the measured untreated areas. In the post⿐fire treated area, we documented a mixed conifer forest dominated by larger diameter Pinus, implying that the fuelbreak did result in a more resilient post⿐fire structure and composition. 2. Ventenata dubia is challenging previous conceptions of community resistance in forest mosaic communities in the Inland Northwest. However, little is known of the drivers and potential ecological impacts of this rapidly expanding species. Here we (1) identify abiotic and biotic habitat characteristics associated with the V. dubia invasion and examine how these differ between V. dubia and other problematic non-native annual grasses, Bromus tectorum and Taeniatherum caput-medusae; and (2) determine how burning influences relationships between V. dubia and plant community composition and structure to address potential impacts on Inland Northwest forest mosaic communities. 3. Updated emissions factors gathered from scientific literature been published and are incorporated into several fire and smoke models including the Fuel and Fire Tools and the BlueSky Playground. This provides improved prediction of smoke impacts from wildland fire. 4. Presence or absence of light did not affect germination of Scotch broom seeds. Light quality, as measured by the ratio of red to far-red light (R/FR), also did not influence germination rates. However, reduced light intensity and reduced R/FR under variable amounts of simulated logging debris both caused severe limitations in seedling root biomass, resulting in greater vulnerability to mortality from soil drought, herbivory, and pathogens. PARTICIPANTS: Becky Kerns Ellen Eberhardt Jim Cronan Morris Johnson Roger Ottmar Ruddy Mell Sim Larkin Tara Barrett Tim Harrington Brian Potter Susan O'Neill Gina Wing James Dollins Dave Peter Alexia Prosperi Mee-sook Kim Doug Westlind Peter Singleton Dave Peterson TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific communities Stakeholders Practitioners Public Federal, Tribal, State, Local, governments Non government organizations Private landowners Business enterprises PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: N/A
Impacts
1. As forest managers design fuel treatment prescriptions to meet multiple management objectives, fuel treatments are likely to result in a variety of treatment structures. If designing treatments and breaks for extreme conditions, consider wider buffers in the context of the surrounding landscape. As we continue to quantify expected distances of higher severity fire effects, and the conditions under which these are observed, we can better plan for effective fuel treatment width. Implement strategically placed fuel treatments in the wildland to mediate fire behavior before the fire reaches the fuelbreak. The behavior of a fire just outside of a fuel treatment modifies the severity inside the fuel treatment, and strategically placed fuel treatments may modify wildfire intensity across the entire fire. 2. Ventenata dubia is expanding into previously uninvaded communities in the Blue Mountain Ecoregion. Wildfire may exacerbate negative relationships between V. dubia and species richness, evenness, and functional diversity, including in communities that historically rarely burned. Understanding the drivers and impacts of the V. dubia invasion and recognizing how these differ from other annual grass invasions may provide insight into mechanisms of community invasibility, grass-fire feedbacks, and aid the development of species-specific management plans. 3. Over the past decade, laboratory and field studies have made substantial progress in characterizing the chemical composition of wildland fire smoke and quantifying emission factors (EFs) in North America. Several recent reviews have summarized existing EFs. Although these recent developments represent a large advancement in emissions characterization, a master repository was still needed to summarize and distribute emissions factors that can be used to produce consistent values applicable for wildland fire management. The emission factors have been reviewed, placed into a large data repository, and added to emission production and smoke dispersion software (i.e. Fuel and Fire Tools, BlueSky Playground) that will provide improved prediction of air quality effects. 4. Retention of logging debris after forest harvesting has been shown to slow invasions of Scotch broom, a severe nonnative competitor with planted seedlings of coast Douglas-fir. A series of laboratory studies were conducted to determine if the light or temperature environment under logging debris influences germination and growth of Scotch broom seedlings sufficiently to limit an invasion by this species. Scotch broom germination was not affected by variation in either light quantity or quality. In addition, reduced temperature from the shade of logging debris did not cause significant reductions in Scotch broom germination. Instead, reduced light quantity and quality (i.e., reduced R/FR) severely limited root biomass of Scotch broom seedlings. The species is heavily reliant on rapid development of a deep, fibrous root system during seedling establishment. The restricted light environment under logging debris increases seedling vulnerability to environmental and biological stressors, such as soil drought, herbivory, and pathogens. This reduction in root biomass is the likely reason why logging debris retention prevents or slows Scotch broom invasions on recently harvested forest sites.
Publications
- Hudec, Jessica L.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Ho, Joanne J., eds. 2019. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in southwest Washington. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-977. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 249 p.
- Kennedy, Maureen C.; McKenzie, Donald; Tague, Christina; Dugger, Aubrey L. 2017. Balancing uncertainty and complexity to incorporate fire spread in an eco-hydrological model. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26(8): 706-718. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF16169.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Day, Michelle A.; Ikeda, Dana. 2020. Long-term seeding outcomes in slash piles and skid trails after conifer removal. Forests. 11: 839.
- Mulvey, Robin, Tara Barrett, and Sarah Bisbing. 2015. Factors contributing to shore pine (Pinus contorta subsp. contorta) mortality and damage in southeast Alaska. Chapter 14 in K.M. Potter and B.L. Conkling, eds., Forest Health Monitoring: National Status, Trends and Analysis, 2014. General Technical Report SRS-209. Asheville, North Carolina: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. p. 151-160.
- Pringle, Richard J.; Cerveny, Lee K.; Bradley, Gordon A. 2015. Implementation of the Forest Service Open Space Conservation Strategy in Washington State: Exploring the Role of the National Forest System. Forest Science. 61(2): 388-396.
- Seybold, Steven J.; Bentz, Barbara J.; Fettig, Christopher J.; Lundquist, John E.; Progar, Robert A.; Gillette, Nancy E. 2018. Management of western North American bark beetles with semiochemicals. Annual Review of Entomology. 63: 407-32.
- Warwell, Marcus V.; Hanna, John W.; McDonald, Geral I.; Kim, Mee-Sook; Lalande, Bradley M.; Stewart, Jane E.; Bright, Ben C.; Klopfenstein, Ned B. 2019. Armillaria altimontana is not associated with reduced growth or survival of western white pine (Pinus monticola) planted in northern Idaho. In: Cleaver, C.; Palacious, P., compilers. Proceedings of the 65th annual Western International Forest Disease Work Conference; 2-6 October 2017; Parksville, BC, Canada. WIFDWC. p. 138-142.
- Barros, Ana M. G.; Ager, Alan A.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Spies, Thomas A.; White, Eric; Pabst, Robert J.; Olsen, Keith A.; Platt, Emily; Bailey, John D.; Bolte, John P. 2017. Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA. Ecology and Society. 22(1): 24.
- Davis, Emily Jane; Cerveny, Lee; Nuss, Meagan; Seesholtz, David. 2015. Oregon forest collaboratives: a rapid assessment. Research Contribution summary. RCS1 (JVA # 11261985-064). 6 p.
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Progress 10/01/18 to 09/30/19
Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Continued assessment of the effects of stand density on drought affected forest p roductivity from tree-stand-landscape levels using dendroecological methods and longitudinal structural surveys in a long-term stand density management experiment. 2. Landscape-level treatments employing controlled burning of fuels are most effective for mitigating subsequent wildfire behavior and effects, but severe fire weather can reduce the effectiveness of both mechanical and fire-based fuel reduction treatments. 3. We published a field sampling and fuelbed development guide for the Fuel Characteristics Classification System (FCCS). We also were leaders in the development of the North American Wildland Fuel Database, a compilation of measured biomass of wildland fuels throughout the US and Canada. This work was funded by the JFSP to inform uncertainty in wildland fuel mapping products and emissions modeling. 4. Delivered update to the Fire and Fuels Tools (v2.0). FFT integrates stand-alone versions of the FCCS, Digital Photo Series, Consume, Fire Emission Production Simulator (FEPS), and the Pile Calculator. This newest version incorporates the latest fuel consumption models and emission factors for improved prediction of biomass consumption and smoke produced. PARTICIPANTS: Tara Barrett Tim Harrington Robert Progar Doug Westlind Dave Peter Dave W. Peterson Morgan Varner Morris Johnson TARGET AUDIENCES: Scientific communities Stakeholders Practitioners Public Federal, Tribal, State, Local, governments Non-government organizations Private landowners Business enterprises PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: N/A
Impacts
1. Bole scorch height is the primary fire injury to ponderosa pine associated with red turpentine beetle and western pine beetle attack in Pacific Northwest forests. Accuracy of model predictions for delayed mortality of fire injured ponderosa pine can be improved by including variables for presence of attack by red turpentine beetle. 2. Knowledge delivery for our assessment of the 2015 Carlton Complex continue. The footprint of past fuel treatments had significantly lower burn severity than untreated forests. Fuel treatments that combined mechanical thinning from below with post-harvest broadcast burns were particularly effective. Our scientists are working directly with fire management staffs to improve strategic landscape-level fuel treatment programs. 3. To support the RPA program, PNW scientists worked with the Washington Office to produce a report on disturbance trends in the Western US based on long-term FIA monitoring. This was a leap forward in understanding the effects of interacting disturbances on forest sustainability is complicated by high levels of spatial and temporal variability and differential socioeconomic impacts for individuals and communities.
Publications
- Ager, Alan A.; Barros, Ana M. G.; Day, Michelle A.; Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Spies, Thomas A.; Bolte, John. 2018. Analyzing fine-scale spatiotemporal drivers of wildfire in a forest landscape model. Ecological Modelling. 384. 87-102.
- Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Ho, Joanne J., eds. 2019. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in south-central Oregon. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-974. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 473 p.
- Kim, John B.; Kerns, Becky K.; Halofsky, Jessica E.; Day, Michelle. Climate change in South Central Orgeon. Chapter 3 in Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in south-central Oregon. 2019. Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Ho, Joanne J., eds. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-974. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 20 p. 35-54.
- McDaniel, Josh; Kelsey, Rick; Westlind, Doug. 2019. Alluring signals: The role of ethanol in attracting bark beetles to heat-stressed trees. Science Findings 217. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 5 p.
- Watts, Andrea; Harrington, Tim; Peter, Dave; Slesak, Robert. 2019. Managing competing vegetation in Douglas-Fir plantations: The benefits of forest floor complexity. Science Findings 220. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 5 p.
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Progress 08/06/09 to 08/06/19
Outputs
OUTPUTS: (1) Progress in understanding bark beetle effects on fire behavior using physics-based models. Bark beetle outbreaks are a major disturbance of forests throughout western North America, affecting ecological processes and social and economic values. Tree mortality resulting from bark beetles has affected lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine, spruce-fir, Douglas-fir, and pinyon pine forest types. The extent of the outbreaks has led to increased scientific, management, and public interest regarding the implications of the resulting tree mortality on wildfire behavior. There is disagreement among studies on the effects of bark-beetle-caused tree mortality on fire behavior. Unlike the more established empirically-based fire models, physics-based models directly capture the processes involved (e.g., altered winds) and account for complex fuel characteristics (e.g., the state, amount, and distribution of vegetation). A judicious use of physics-based models can lead to a more complete understanding of how bark beetle mortality can influence fire behavior. ( 2) Seeding in disturbed areas after fuel reduction helps establish native plants, but may not mitigate exotic annual grass species spread. Western juniper has increased in density and distribution in the interior Pacific Northwest since the late 1800s. Management goals for many juniper woodlands now focus on reducing tree densities. Disturbed areas created from tree thinning are frequently seeded to help restore vegetation quickly and combat exotic plant invasion. We seeded plots using two seed mixes in post-burned slash piles and skid trails after juniper cutting on the Crooked River National Grassland Oregon. After cutting and 2 years after seeding, some seeded areas had higher total species richness, higher native species richness, higher cover of seeded species, and higher overall cover compared to areas that were not seeded. But seeding effectiveness in mitigating exotic species spread varied. Neither seed mix lowered exotic grass cover. In the short term, areas cut and burned by slash, areas cut and used for skid trails, and even control plots (uncut and undisturbed) were invaded by exotic annual grasses. 3) On former prairies of Joint Base Lewis-McChord (JBLM) near Tacoma, Washington, Douglas-fir forests established naturally during a 60-year period (1878-1938) following infrequent and low-intensity fires. Growth-ring analysis was conducted on 242 Douglas-fir stumps in six recently harvested sites at JBLM to identify year of tree establishment, timing of natural disturbances, and periods of growth release and suppression. These data were compared to historical records from the General Land Office Survey to identify how forest colonization of the former prairies occurred following suspension of burning by Native Americans in the 1850's. Current stands established via three or more waves of regeneration unique to each site that were associated with low-intensity disturbances⿿probably fire. Such disturbances occurred, on the average, every 37 years. Growth rates and crown characteristics of the dominant trees indicated that the rate of site occupancy occurred faster on sites of better quality. The rate of tree establishment peaked and abruptly declined beginning around 1940. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Colorado State University, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, University of Idaho, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. (2) Malheur National Forest and Crooked River National Grassland, Oregon State University. (3) Environmental and Natural Resources Division, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, U.S. Department of Defense.
Impacts
(1) Results from physics-based model simulations suggest that bark-beetle-caused tree mortality alters wildfire behavior through a number of interacting physical processes. These include the influence of the spatial pattern of the dead trees on the wind flow and heat transfer and crown-fuel loading relative to surface-fire intensity. These findings provide a focus for more complete studies that combine field measurements and computer modeling. (2) In the short-term, the fuel reduction activities further facilitated conversion of the Crooked River National Grassland woodland areas to an exotic grassland, but longer-term evaluation is needed. In low elevation juniper woodlands that have been invaded by exotic species, extensive exotic species control may be needed to limit invasion and promote native vegetation after fuel reduction activities. (3) JBLM Environmental and Natural Resources Division is using this research information to develop prescriptions for natural regeneration of Douglas-fir, including identification of the appropriate size of forest canopy openings, conifer planting density, and the need for reducing abundance of competing understory vegetation.
Publications
- Buma, B.; Hennon, P.E.; Bidlack, A.L.; Baichtal, J.F.; Ager, T.A.; Streveier, G. 2014. Correspondence regarding "The problem of conifer species migration lag in the Pacific Northwest region since the last glaciation" by Eias, S.A., (2013), Quaternary Science Reviews 77, 55-69. Quaternary Science Reviews. 93: 167-169.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Westlind, Douglas J. 2013. Effect of season and interval of prescribed burn on ponderosa pine butterfly defoliation patterns. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 43: 979-983.
- Larkin, Narasimhan K.; Raffuse, Sean M.; Strand, Tara M. 2014. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories. Forest Ecology and Management. 317: 61-69.
- Raymond, Crystal L.; McKenzie, Donald. 2013. Temporal carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, US: implications for ecological theory and carbon management. Forest Ecology and Management. 310: 796-811.
- Stavros, E. Natasha; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan. 2014. The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. WIREs Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.303: 15 p.
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1) FASMEE is a collaborative and integrated experiment to collect data to evaluate and advance operational fire and smoke models. Validation data collected from operational prescribed burns from ⿿surface-to-space⿿ during the FASMEE project have been identified as a critical need by land managers for improving smoke and air quality impacts from wildland fires. 2) Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the southeastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect future wildfires. We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (1992⿿2010) based on precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, land use, human population, and incomes. Estimated parameters from the statistical models were used to project wildfire area burned from 2011 to 2060. We then developed a methodology to construct wildfire-emissions inventories that include these changes. 3) We found that Variables of Beargrass reproductive ability were smaller in shaded areas than in sunny areas. Plants growing in shaded areas, although of somewhat higher commercial quality, are likely to recover more slowly from foliar harvest, and are less likely to be replaced after mortality. Research results suggest that stands composed of widely-spaced Douglas-fir with scattered openings are likely to provide adequate conditions for growing sustainable populations of commercially valuable beargrass resilient to periodic harvesting of foliage. 4) The corpus of scientific knowledge indicates that wildfire area will increase with global warming. The key factor, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrubs with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examined the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western U.S., from temperate rainforest to desert. 5) The U.S. Forest Service, International Program was invited to provide technical support for evaluating connectivity patterns between existing reserves as part of the Vietnam Forests and Deltas Program, supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development. The goal of the PNW scientist in this project was to use tools developed by PNW and collaborators to assess connectivity of natural forest cover types between the seven nature reserves and national parks in and near the biosphere reserve to identify opportunities and priorities for connectivity conservation and restoration. 6) We found that severity and resulting fire effects of fire varied among structural classes in Alpine treelines. Non-forest was less likely to burn than the landscape as a whole; open forest was more likely to remain forest than to change to non-forest; and closed forest never changed to non-forest, irrespective of burn severity. Higher-severity fires caused greater mortality of larger-diameter than of smaller-diameter trees. 7) Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the southeastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect future wildfires. We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (1992⿿2010) based on precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, land use, human population, and incomes. Estimated parameters from the statistical models were used to project wildfire area burned from 2011 to 2060. We then developed a methodology to construct wildfire-emissions inventories that include these changes. PARTICIPANTS: Roger Ottmar Sim Larkin Ruddy Mell David L. Peterson David A. Peterson Susan O'Neill Miriam Rorig Brian Potter Rick Kelsey Don McKenzie Doug Westlind Morgan Varner Morris Johnson
Impacts
1) FASMEE is in the planning and coordination phase of a two phase project plan. There are three, national field campaigns planned by 2020. Leads from across the nation were identified to assist in planning and development of a study plan for the following disciplines: 1) fuel and consumption, 2) fire physics, 3) plume development and meteorology, 4) smoke and chemistry, and 5) model simulation. A coordination committee across multiple agencies and partners supports the project. A study plan has been completed that specifies what and how data are to be collected as FASMEE moves into Phase 2 (See: http://www.fasmee.net). 2. Dynamical downscaling of climate is the most commonly used method to calculate meteorological inputs for estimating daily wildfire emissions and driving air-quality simulations. Our results point to the need to correct biases in downscaling models used in projections of precipitation and other climate drivers of wildfires for more reliable decision making. See Prestemon, J.P., et al. 2016. Projecting wildfire area burned in the southeastern United States, 2011-2060. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25:715-729. 3. We identified forest characteristics that affect beargrass reproduction and qualities sought for traditional basketry and floral uses. Beargrass plants growing in shaded areas had foliage characteristics desirable for basketry and floral arrangements, but overall plant vigor and reproduction was reduced compared to plants growing in sunny areas. Research results suggest that stands composed of widely-spaced Douglas-fir with scattered openings are likely to provide adequate conditions for growing sustainable populations of commercially valuable Beargrass. See: Peter et al. 2017. Effects of the light environment and stand history on beargrass morphology and demography. Northwest Science, In press. 4) Wildfire projections under climate change scenarios tend to be catastrophic, and do not differentiate regional variation. We focused on drought and fire and increased knowledge about the uncertainty of projections and we suggest regions are of particular concern. See McKenzie, D. and Littell, J.S. 2017. Climate change and the ecohydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA? Ecological Applications 27:26-36. 5) We evaluated habitat connectivity patterns and identified eight potential linkages between the seven designated reserve areas in Vietnam. We also identified four high priority barrier areas were where community-based ecological forestry projects that address multi-scale ecological restoration goals might be implemented in collaboration with local land managers and the Vietnam Forests and Deltas Program. Site visits to these areas and habitat connectivity assessment training workshops for land managers and GIS analysts in Vietnam were conducted in April 2017. 6. We found that components of the alpine treeline will not respond linearly to a warming climate nor to an increase in fire. The ecotone will expand bi-directionally and develop larger more heterogeneous patches of vegetation. Understanding changing fire dynamics in high-elevation ecosystems, particularly how much and where tree lines will change, is expected to inform future policy on protected areas and ecosystem services. See: Cansler et al. 2016. Area burned in alpine treeline ecotones reflects region-wide trends. International Journal of Wildland Fire 25:1209-1220. 7) Dynamical downscaling of climate is the most commonly used method to calculate meteorological inputs for estimating daily wildfire emissions and driving air-quality simulations. Our results indicate the need to correct biases in models used in projections of precipitation and other climate drivers of wildfires for more reliable decision making. See Prestemon, J.P., et al. 2016. Projecting wildfire area burned in the southeastern United States, 2011-2060. IJWF 25:715-729.
Publications
- Deal, Robert L.; Hennon, Paul; D'Amore, David V.; Davis, Raymond J.; Smith, Jane E.; Lowell, Eini 2017. Ecosystem services with diverse forest landowners. In: Olson, Deanna H.; Van Horne, Beatrice, eds. People, forests, and change: Lessons from the Pacific Northwest. Washington, DC: Island Press: 79-90. Chapter 6.
- Frelich, Lee E.; Reich, Peter B.; Peterson, David W. 2017. The changing role of fire in mediating the relationships among oaks, grasslands, mesic temperate forests, and boreal forests in the Lake States. Journal of Sustainable Forestry. 36(5): 421-432. https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2017.1296777.
- Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L., eds. 2017. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-939. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 331 p.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Day, Michelle A. 2017. The importance of disturbance by fire and other abiotic and biotic factors in driving cheatgrass invasion varies based on invasion stage. Biological Invasions. 19(6): 1853-1862. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-017-1395-3.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Powell, David C.; Mellmann-Brown, Sabine; Carnwath, Gunnar; Kim, John B. 2017. Chapter 6: Effects of climatic variability and change on upland vegetation in the Blue Mountains. In: Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L., eds. Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the Blue Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-939. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 149-250.
- Oliver, Marie; Kerns, Becky; Kim, John; Kline, Jeff. 2017. Mapping the future: U.S. exposure to multiple landscape stressors. Science Findings 197. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 5 p.
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Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16
Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Fuel loads and simulated fire behavior were studied in beetle-infested ponderosa pine in Colorado. With increased severity of beetle infestation, canopy bulk density, canopy base height, canopy cover, and litter loads each decreased, whereas woody fuel loads increased. Beetle-infested trees required 9-12 years to become down woody debris. 2. Post fire logging has minimal impacts to understory vegetation. Severe wildfires create pulses of dead trees that influence future fuel loads, fire behavior, and fire effects as they decay and deposit surface woody fuels. This study demonstrates that dry coniferous forest ecosystems can be resilient to postfire logging, particularly when best management practices are followed to minimize initial logging impacts on soils and vegetation. 3. Influence of elevation and site productivity on conifer distributions in Alaskan temperate rainforests. Patterns of tree species occurrence and life stage by elevation and site productivity were quantified for coastal Alaska. 4. A climate adaptation strategy for conservation and management of yellow-cedar in Alaska. This comprehensive report summarizes current knowledge on yellow-cedar, assesses its health status throughout Alaska, and offers opportunities to adapt conservation and management of the species in Alaska⿿s changing climate. 5. Factors contributing to shore pine mortality and damage in southeastern Alaska. A new network of FIA-type plots were established to study health of shore pine in southeastern Alaska. Moderate- to high-severity wounds were observed on over 65% of trees in the largest stem diameter class. Western gall rust, bole wounds, and Dothistroma needle blight were the most common forms of damage. 6. Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior. The effects of weather, fuel, and topographic factors on extreme fire behavior are discussed with a focus on those areas of research having the greatest potential impact on firefighter protection. PARTICIPANTS: 1. Morris C. Johnson 2. David W. Peterson 3. Paul E. Hennon 4. Paul E. Hennon 5. Tara M. Barrett, Robert R. Pattison 6. Brian E. Potter, Roger D. Ottmar TARGET AUDIENCES: 1. Wildland fire managers, fuel modelers, forest entomologists 2. Silviculturists, forest vegetation managers, wildlife habitat biologists 3. Silviculturists, forest ecologists 4. Forest land managers, forest ecologists, climate scientists 5. Forest land managers, forest ecologists, climate scientists 6. Wildland fire managers; fire, smoke, and fuel modelers
Impacts
1. Journal publication in Forest Science. The study fills prominent data gaps for an arid cover type, including expected fuel levels for a range of infestation severities and times since beetle outbreak. 2. Journal publication in Forest Ecology and Management. Results of the research suggest that postfire logging decisions can be more focused on potential treatment benefits and less on concerns about long-term ecosystem degradation. 3. Journal publication in Canadian Journal of Forest Research. Analyses of life stage distributions for each tree species suggested that western hemlock, western redcedar, and shore pine were relatively stable with regard to elevation; however, there were indications of shifting distributions by elevation for yellow-cedar, mountain hemlock, and Sitka spruce. 4. PNW General Technical Report. The report has four sections: a review of the silvics, ecology, and genetics of yellow-cedar; a summary of the cause of yellow-cedar forest decline and involvement of climate; options for conservation and management of yellow-cedar on suitable and unsuitable habitats; and new models that predict the health status of yellow-cedar forests now and in the future. 5. SRS General Technical Report; journal publication in Environmental Research Letters. Despite the high level of injury observed on shore pine, the species appears to be regenerating well in a challenging environment of saturated peat bogs and acidic forest soils. 6. PNW General Technical Report. The following summary of the state of fire science was developed: (1) fire is three dimensional and is not steady state, (2) the tools available to us today are two dimensional and are predominantly steady state, and (3) additional research into extreme fire behavior may one day result in development of three-dimensional tools.
Publications
Hansen, E. Matthew; Johnson, Morris C.; Bentz, Barbara J.; Vandygriff, James C.; Munson, A. Steven. 2015. Fuel loads and simulated fire behavior in "old-stage" beetle-infested ponderosa pine of the Colorado Plateau. Forest Science. 61(4): 644-664. Peterson, David W.; Dodson, Erich Kyle. 2016. Post-fire logging produces minimal persistent impacts on understory vegetation in northeastern Oregon, USA. Forest Ecology and Management. 370: 56-64. - Averett, Joshua P.; McCune, Bruce; Parks, Catherine G.; Naylor, Bridgett J.; DelCurto, Tim; Mata-Gonz??lez, Ricardo; Zang, RunGuo 2016. Non-Native Plant Invasion along Elevation and Canopy Closure Gradients in a Middle Rocky Mountain Ecosystem. PLOS ONE, Vol. 11(1): e0147826-.
- Caouette, John P.; Steel, Ashley E.; Hennon, Paul E.; Cunningham, Pat G.; Pohl, Cathy A.; Schrader, Barbara A. 2016. Influence of elevation and site productivity on conifer distributions across Alaskan temperate rainforests. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 46(2): 249-261.
- Halpern, Charles B.; Antos, Joseph A.; McKenzie, Donald; Olson, Annette M.; Souza, Lara. 2015. Past tree influence and prescribed fire mediate biotic interactions and community reassembly in a grassland-restoration experiment. Journal of Applied Ecology. 53(1): 264-273.
- Hennon, Paul E.; McKenzie, Carol M.; D'Amore, David V.; Wittwer, Dustin T.; Mulvey, Robin L.; Lamb, Melinda S.; Biles, Frances E.; Cronn, Rich C. 2016. A climate adaptation strategy for conservation and management of yellowcedar in Alaska. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-917. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 382 p.
- Krosby, Meade; Breckheimer, Ian; John Pierce, D.; Singleton, Peter H.; Hall, Sonia A.; Halupka, Karl C.; Gaines, William L.; Long, Robert A.; McRae, Brad H.; Cosentino, Brian L.; Schuett-Hames, Joanne P. 2015. Focal species and landscape "naturalness" corridor models offer complementary approaches for connectivity conservation planning. Landscape Ecology. 30(10): 2121-2132.
- Mulvey, Robin; Barrett, Tara; Bisbing, Sarah 2015. Factors contributing to Shore Pine (Pinus contorta subsp contorta) mortality and damage in southeast Alaska (Project WC⿿EM⿿B⿿12⿿03). [Chapter 14]. In: Potter, Kevin M.; Conkling, Barbara L., eds. 2015. Forest Health Monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2014. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-209. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station: 151-160.
- Potter, Brian; Goodrick, S.L.; Srock, A.F.; Charney, J.J. 2015. 2.4Evaluation of a suite of simple fire indices for the 2014 Fire Season in the Pacific Northwest. 11th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology. 2015 May 4-7; Minneapolis, MN. [No volume].[No issue].[Not paged]. Abstract.
- Sullivan, Patrick F; Mulvey, Robin L; Brownlee, Annalis H; Barrett, Tara M; Pattison, Robert R. 2015. Warm summer nights and the growth decline of shore pine in Southeast Alaska. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10(12): 124007-.
- Werth, Paul A.; Potter, Brian E.; Alexander, Martin E.; Clements, Craig B.; Cruz, Miguel G.; Finney, Mark A.; Forthofer, Jason M.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Hoffman, Chad; Jolly, W. Matt; McAllister, Sara S.; Ottmar, Roger D.; Parsons, Russell A. 2016. Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume 2 for fire behavior specialists, researchers, and meteorologists. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-891. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 258 p.
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
OUTPUTS: 1. Effects of climate change at the alpine treeline: Future wildfires will affect high-elevation forests, which are also expected to be especially sensitive to a warming climate. This research used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) record (1984-2012) to measure the synchrony between area burned by fire overall and at the treeline ecotone. Field data from four fires were used to quantify spatial patterns of fire severity and seedling establishment. 2. Public perceptions of smoke: With the influx of populations into the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) in the western and south-central U.S., there is a need to mitigate wildfire risk by reducing fuels with prescribed fire, however, smoke from prescribed fires in the WUI impacts air quality. This study focused on public opinion toward smoke and the factors that underlie the public⿿s tolerance of it. 3. Forest structure characteristics within barred owl home ranges are similar to areas used by spotted owls. Barred owls used the complex-structure mixed grand fir forest type more than the other types during the breeding season (spring and summer), but all of the forest types were used equally during other times of the year. 4. A climate adaptation strategy for conservation and management of yellow-cedar has been developed for Alaska. Yellow-cedar is an extremely valuable tree species along the northern Pacific coast but has been experiencing widespread mortality over the last century. Research by a team of PNW scientists and colleagues has identified the cause of tree death as freezing injury to shallow fine roots during cold-winter and early-spring weather that occurs when snow is not present. A summary research paper published several years ago outlined a conceptual framework to develop a climate adaption strategy for yellow-cedar. This year, PNW scientists worked with a team of Forest Service, Alaska Region experts to a write a comprehensive report that summarizes current knowledge on yellow-cedar, assesses its health status throughout Alaska, and offers opportunities to adapt conservation and management of yellow-cedar in Alaska. 5. Data on wildland fire smoke emissions are currently scattered across a variety of disparate datasets. Scientists worked with the Environmental Protection Agency to to improve methods for synthesizing these datasets and estimate wildland fire smoke emissions. 6. Program scientists were selected to lead the development of a new interagency field campaign to improve and validate smoke models. Work included extensive interviews with experts in fuels, fire behavior, smoke and air quality, meteorology, and plume dynamics. 7. By using historic fire records and weather records, scientists identified common denominators associated with megafires. These were used to then determine future mid-century potential for megafires across the United States under climate change scenarios. PARTICIPANTS: 1. Joint Fire Science Program, Rocky Mountain Research Station, University of Washington. We acknowledge funding from the Joint Fire Science Program under project no. 13-3-01-22. 2. Joint Fire Science Program, University of Idaho. We acknowledge funding from the Joint Fire Science Program under project no. 10-1-03-2. 3. University of Washington, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 4. Alaska Region, State and Private Forestry 5. EPA OAQPS; JFSP; University of Washington; Desert Research Institute; Sonoma Technology 6. Joint Fire Science Program; Department of Defense Environmental Security Technical Certification Program; NASA; EPA; DOE 7. University of Idaho; University of Washington TARGET AUDIENCES: 1. Forest ecologists, fire ecologists, wildlife biologists, silviculturists, carbon modelers 2. Air quality regulators, smoke managers, prescribed fire practitioners 3. Managers and scientists 4. Forest land managers in southeastern AK, climate scientists, soil scientists. 5. EPA; state air quality managers; prescribed managers 6. fire scientists; smoke scientists 7. land and fire managers and policy makers; fire scientists
Impacts
1. Area burned near treeline was significantly correlated with regional area burned, and, in some regions of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rocky Mountains, subalpine parkland is burning at a higher rate than the region as a whole. It is very likely that given the heterogeneity of both fire severity and seedling establishment, that the alpine treeline ecotones will be wider and have more complex spatial patterns. 2. The public is generally tolerant of prescribed fire smoke and may not consider smoke to be a major issue of concern; however, receiving advance notice of prescribed burning activities and the potential for the presence of smoke was very important for public acceptance. 3. This research can help managers and scientists understand and plan for the effects of competitive interactions with barred owls on spotted owl populations and will contribute information for review of the listing status of the northern spotted owl under the Endangered Species Act. 4. The report has four sections: a review of the silvics, ecology, genetics, and many other aspects of yellow-cedar; a summary of the cause of forest decline and involvement of climate; options for conservation and management of yellow-cedar on suitable and unsuitable habitats; and new models that predict the health status of yellow-cedar forests now and in the future. An appendix gives detailed tables and maps for yellow-cedar occurrence, ongoing forest decline, and future risk to decline for 34 subregions in Alaska. 5. Developed guidance, processes, and protocols for wildland fire emissions processing that are being used in the 2014 EPA⿿s National Emissions Inventory. 6. A multiyear plan for implementation of the largest wildfire research field campaign in US history was delivered to the Joint Fire Science Program. It served as the basis for the current funding opportunity notice from JFSP. 7. Multiple scientific papers published on the historic and future potential for megafires, one of which was selected for highlighting on Climate.gov.
Publications
- Buma, Brian; Barrett, Tara M. 2015. Spatial and topgraphic trends in forest expansion and biomass change, from regional to local scales. Global Change Biology. 21: 3445-3454.
- Cronan, James B.; Wright, Clinton S.; Petrova, Maria 2015. Effects of dormant and growing season burning on surface fuels and potential fire behavior in northern Florida longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) flatwoods. Forest Ecology and Management. 354: 318-333.
- Dodson, Erich K.; Peterson, David W. 2010. Dry coniferous forest restoration and understory plant diversity: The importance of community heterogeneity and the scale of observation. Forest Ecology and Management. 260(10): 1702-1707.
- Drury, Stacy A.; Larkin, Narasimhan; Strand, Tara T.; Huang, ShihMing; Strenfel, Scott J.; O'Brien, Theresa E.; Raffuse, Sean M. 2014. Intercomparison of fire size, fuel loading, fuel consumption, and smoke emissions estimates on the 2006 tripod fire, Washington, USA. Fire Ecology. 10(1): 56-83.
- Kirkland, John; Kelsey, Rick. 2015. What do cocktail parties and stressed trees have in common? Plenty of alcohol! Science Findings 173. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 6 p.
- O'Neill, Susan M.; Lahm, Peter W.; Fitch, Mark J.; Broughton, Mike 2013. Summary and analysis of approaches linking visual range, PM 2.5 concentrations, and air quality health impact indices for wildfires . Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association. 63(9): 1083-1090.
- Stavros, E. Natasha; Abatzoglou, John T.; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan K. 2014. Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States. Climatic Change. 126(3-4): 455-468.
- Keane, Robert E.; McKenzie, Donald; Falk, Donald A.; Smithwick, Erica A.H.; Miller, Carol; Kellogg, Lara-Karena B. 2015. Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models. Ecological Modelling. 309-310: 33-47.
- Kerns, Becky K. 2014. Disturbance is a key factor in plant invasions. Western Forester. 5(2). 3 p.
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Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
OUTPUTS: (1) Progress in understanding bark beetle effects on fire behavior using physics-based models. Bark beetle outbreaks are a major disturbance of forests throughout western North America, affecting ecological processes and social and economic values. Tree mortality resulting from bark beetles has affected lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine, spruce-fir, Douglas-fir, and pinyon pine forest types. The extent of the outbreaks has led to increased scientific, management, and public interest regarding the implications of the resulting tree mortality on wildfire behavior. There is disagreement among studies on the effects of bark-beetle-caused tree mortality on fire behavior. Unlike the more established empirically-based fire models, physics-based models directly capture the processes involved (e.g., altered winds) and account for complex fuel characteristics (e.g., the state, amount, and distribution of vegetation). A judicious use of physics-based models can lead to a more complete understanding of how bark beetle mortality can influence fire behavior. ( 2) Seeding in disturbed areas after fuel reduction helps establish native plants, but may not mitigate exotic annual grass species spread. Western juniper has increased in density and distribution in the interior Pacific Northwest since the late 1800s. Management goals for many juniper woodlands now focus on reducing tree densities. Disturbed areas created from tree thinning are frequently seeded to help restore vegetation quickly and combat exotic plant invasion. We seeded plots using two seed mixes in post-burned slash piles and skid trails after juniper cutting on the Crooked River National Grassland Oregon. After cutting and 2 years after seeding, some seeded areas had higher total species richness, higher native species richness, higher cover of seeded species, and higher overall cover compared to areas that were not seeded. But seeding effectiveness in mitigating exotic species spread varied. Neither seed mix lowered exotic grass cover. In the short term, areas cut and burned by slash, areas cut and used for skid trails, and even control plots (uncut and undisturbed) were invaded by exotic annual grasses. 3) On former prairies of Joint Base Lewis-McChord (JBLM) near Tacoma, Washington, Douglas-fir forests established naturally during a 60-year period (1878-1938) following infrequent and low-intensity fires. Growth-ring analysis was conducted on 242 Douglas-fir stumps in six recently harvested sites at JBLM to identify year of tree establishment, timing of natural disturbances, and periods of growth release and suppression. These data were compared to historical records from the General Land Office Survey to identify how forest colonization of the former prairies occurred following suspension of burning by Native Americans in the 1850⿿s. Current stands established via three or more waves of regeneration unique to each site that were associated with low-intensity disturbances⿿probably fire. Such disturbances occurred, on the average, every 37 years. Growth rates and crown characteristics of the dominant trees indicated that the rate of site occupancy occurred faster on sites of better quality. The rate of tree establishment peaked and abruptly declined beginning around 1940. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Colorado State University, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, University of Idaho, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. (2) Malheur National Forest and Crooked River National Grassland, Oregon State University. (3) Environmental and Natural Resources Division, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, U.S. Department of Defense.
Impacts
(1) Results from physics-based model simulations suggest that bark-beetle-caused tree mortality alters wildfire behavior through a number of interacting physical processes. These include the influence of the spatial pattern of the dead trees on the wind flow and heat transfer and crown-fuel loading relative to surface-fire intensity. These findings provide a focus for more complete studies that combine field measurements and computer modeling. (2) In the short-term, the fuel reduction activities further facilitated conversion of the Crooked River National Grassland woodland areas to an exotic grassland, but longer-term evaluation is needed. In low elevation juniper woodlands that have been invaded by exotic species, extensive exotic species control may be needed to limit invasion and promote native vegetation after fuel reduction activities. (3) JBLM Environmental and Natural Resources Division is using this research information to develop prescriptions for natural regeneration of Douglas-fir, including identification of the appropriate size of forest canopy openings, conifer planting density, and the need for reducing abundance of competing understory vegetation.
Publications
- Buma, B.; Hennon, P.E.; Bidlack, A.L.; Baichtal, J.F.; Ager, T.A.; Streveier, G. 2014. Correspondence regarding "The problem of conifer species migration lag in the Pacific Northwest region since the last glaciation" by Eias, S.A., (2013), Quaternary Science Reviews 77, 55-69. Quaternary Science Reviews. 93: 167-169.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Westlind, Douglas J. 2013. Effect of season and interval of prescribed burn on ponderosa pine butterfly defoliation patterns. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 43: 979-983.
- Larkin, Narasimhan K.; Raffuse, Sean M.; Strand, Tara M. 2014. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories. Forest Ecology and Management. 317: 61-69.
- Raymond, Crystal L.; McKenzie, Donald. 2013. Temporal carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, US: implications for ecological theory and carbon management. Forest Ecology and Management. 310: 796-811.
- Stavros, E. Natasha; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan. 2014. The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. WIREs Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.303: 15 p.
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Progress 08/06/09 to 09/30/14
Outputs
OUTPUTS: (1) Progress in understanding bark beetle effects on fire behavior using physics-based models. Bark beetle outbreaks are a major disturbance of forests throughout western North America, affecting ecological processes and social and economic values. Tree mortality resulting from bark beetles has affected lodgepole pine, ponderosa pine, spruce-fir, Douglas-fir, and pinyon pine forest types. The extent of the outbreaks has led to increased scientific, management, and public interest regarding the implications of the resulting tree mortality on wildfire behavior. There is disagreement among studies on the effects of bark-beetle-caused tree mortality on fire behavior. Unlike the more established empirically-based fire models, physics-based models directly capture the processes involved (e.g., altered winds) and account for complex fuel characteristics (e.g., the state, amount, and distribution of vegetation). A judicious use of physics-based models can lead to a more complete understanding of how bark beetle mortality can influence fire behavior. ( 2) Seeding in disturbed areas after fuel reduction helps establish native plants, but may not mitigate exotic annual grass species spread. Western juniper has increased in density and distribution in the interior Pacific Northwest since the late 1800s. Management goals for many juniper woodlands now focus on reducing tree densities. Disturbed areas created from tree thinning are frequently seeded to help restore vegetation quickly and combat exotic plant invasion. We seeded plots using two seed mixes in post-burned slash piles and skid trails after juniper cutting on the Crooked River National Grassland Oregon. After cutting and 2 years after seeding, some seeded areas had higher total species richness, higher native species richness, higher cover of seeded species, and higher overall cover compared to areas that were not seeded. But seeding effectiveness in mitigating exotic species spread varied. Neither seed mix lowered exotic grass cover. In the short term, areas cut and burned by slash, areas cut and used for skid trails, and even control plots (uncut and undisturbed) were invaded by exotic annual grasses. 3) On former prairies of Joint Base Lewis-McChord (JBLM) near Tacoma, Washington, Douglas-fir forests established naturally during a 60-year period (1878-1938) following infrequent and low-intensity fires. Growth-ring analysis was conducted on 242 Douglas-fir stumps in six recently harvested sites at JBLM to identify year of tree establishment, timing of natural disturbances, and periods of growth release and suppression. These data were compared to historical records from the General Land Office Survey to identify how forest colonization of the former prairies occurred following suspension of burning by Native Americans in the 1850⿿s. Current stands established via three or more waves of regeneration unique to each site that were associated with low-intensity disturbances⿿probably fire. Such disturbances occurred, on the average, every 37 years. Growth rates and crown characteristics of the dominant trees indicated that the rate of site occupancy occurred faster on sites of better quality. The rate of tree establishment peaked and abruptly declined beginning around 1940. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Colorado State University, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, University of Idaho, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. (2) Malheur National Forest and Crooked River National Grassland, Oregon State University. (3) Environmental and Natural Resources Division, Joint Base Lewis-McChord, U.S. Department of Defense.
Impacts
(1) Results from physics-based model simulations suggest that bark-beetle-caused tree mortality alters wildfire behavior through a number of interacting physical processes. These include the influence of the spatial pattern of the dead trees on the wind flow and heat transfer and crown-fuel loading relative to surface-fire intensity. These findings provide a focus for more complete studies that combine field measurements and computer modeling. (2) In the short-term, the fuel reduction activities further facilitated conversion of the Crooked River National Grassland woodland areas to an exotic grassland, but longer-term evaluation is needed. In low elevation juniper woodlands that have been invaded by exotic species, extensive exotic species control may be needed to limit invasion and promote native vegetation after fuel reduction activities. (3) JBLM Environmental and Natural Resources Division is using this research information to develop prescriptions for natural regeneration of Douglas-fir, including identification of the appropriate size of forest canopy openings, conifer planting density, and the need for reducing abundance of competing understory vegetation.
Publications
- Buma, B.; Hennon, P.E.; Bidlack, A.L.; Baichtal, J.F.; Ager, T.A.; Streveier, G. 2014. Correspondence regarding "The problem of conifer species migration lag in the Pacific Northwest region since the last glaciation" by Eias, S.A., (2013), Quaternary Science Reviews 77, 55-69. Quaternary Science Reviews. 93: 167-169.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Westlind, Douglas J. 2013. Effect of season and interval of prescribed burn on ponderosa pine butterfly defoliation patterns. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 43: 979-983.
- Larkin, Narasimhan K.; Raffuse, Sean M.; Strand, Tara M. 2014. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories. Forest Ecology and Management. 317: 61-69.
- Raymond, Crystal L.; McKenzie, Donald. 2013. Temporal carbon dynamics of forests in Washington, US: implications for ecological theory and carbon management. Forest Ecology and Management. 310: 796-811.
- Stavros, E. Natasha; McKenzie, Donald; Larkin, Narasimhan. 2014. The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales. WIREs Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.303: 15 p.
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Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13
Outputs
OUTPUTS: (1) Hazardous fuel treatments in dry Western forests generally reduce carbon storage over time compared to periodic wildfires, but the treatments ensure smaller pulses of episodic carbon emissions while reducing the potential for large crown fires. This comprehensive synthesis of the literature analyzes how different types of fuel treatments affect carbon dynamics across a broad range of forest ecosystems, and assesses the diverse methods used in different studies over the past decade. Type of treatment, periodicity of treatment, assumptions about carbon emissions, and specific forest type all affect long-term carbon storage relative to the effects of no treatment and periodic wildfires. In general, small but regular pulses of carbon emissions from fuel treatments result in lower overall carbon storage than no treatments with or without wildfire. (2) Summary and analysis of approaches linking visual range, PM2.5 concentrations, and air quality health impact indices for wildfires. Many U.S. state and tribal agencies and other countries implement a methodology developed in the arid intermountain Western United States, where short-term (1- to 3-hr) particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) concentrations are estimated from an observed visual range measurement. This PM2.5 concentration estimate is then linked to a public health warning scale to inform the public about potential health impacts from smoke from wildfire. This work illustrates the limitations of current approaches linking visual range, PM2.5 concentrations, and air quality health impact indices. Furthermore, visual range/PM2.5/health impact approaches can change when crossing borders, so it is also the first published summary of known health impact approaches nationally and internationally. PARTICIPANTS: (1) U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest; University of Washington (2) National Wildfire Coordinating Group Smoke Committee; Joint Fire Sciences Program; USDA Forest Service Fire & Aviation Management; USDI National Park Service; USDI Fish and Wildlife Service
Impacts
(1) Periodic (every 20 to 40 years) hazardous fuel treatments result in lower forest carbon storage compared to no treatment. However, a regular treatment schedule ensures that carbon emissions over time are small and predictable compared to emissions caused by wildfire. Methods and assumptions used to calculate carbon budgets can have a significant effect on inferences about the effects of management actions. (2) Concerns about the use of a human-sighted visual range, presence of pollutants other than smoke in the air, its usage in higher humidity environments, and the potential for public messaging conflicts at state and international borders were voiced in many spirited discussions within the National Wildfire Coordinating Group Smoke Committee. Those discussions formed the basis for this work and further work currently sponsored by the Joint Fire Sciences Program.
Publications
- Halofsky, J.E.; Hemstrom, M.A.; Conklin, D.R; Halofsky, J.S.; Kerns, B.K.; Bachelet, D. 2013. Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach. Ecological Modelling. 266: 131-143.
- Hennon, Paul; Wittwer, Dustin 2013. Evaluating key landscape features of a climate-induced forest decline (Project WC-EM-07-01). In: Potter, Kevin M.; Conkling, Barbara L., eds. 2013. Forest Health Monitoring: national status, trends, and analysis 2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-GTR-176. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Southern Research Station. 117-122.
- Iverson, Louis R.; McKenzie, Donald. 2013. Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting. Landscape Ecology. 28: 879-889.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Buonopane, Michelle; Thies, Walter G.; Niwa, Christine. 2011. Reintroducing fire into a ponderosa pine forest with and without cattle grazing: understory vegetation response. Ecosphere. 2(5): 1-23.
- O'Neill, Susan M.; Lahm, Peter W.; Fitch, Mark J.; Broughton, Mike. 2013. Summary and analysis of approaches linking visual range, PM2.5 concentrations, and air quality health impact indices for wildfires. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association. 63(9): 1083-1090.
- Restiano, Joseph C.; Peterson, David L. 2013. Wildfire and fuel treatment effects on forest carbon dynamics in the western United States. Forest Ecology and Management. 303: 46-60.
- Seipel, Tim; Kueffer, Christoph; Rew, Lisa J.; Daehler, Curtis C.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Naylor,Bridgett J.; Alexander, Jake M.; Edwards, Peter J.; Parks, Catherine G.; Arevalo, Jose Ramon; Cavieres, Lohengrin A.; Dietz, Hansjorg; Jakobs, Gabi; McDougall, Keith; Otto, Rudiger; Walsh, Neville. 2012. Processes at multiple scales affect richness and similarity of non-native plant species in mountains around the world. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 21: 236-246.
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Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: (1) We found that, at sea level in southeast Alaska, about 20 percent of western hemlock trees become infected by hemlock dwarf mistletoe, but trees above 200 m elevation are infrequently infected, probably owing to climate limitations on dwarf mistletoe. Models that predict future habitat from climate information indicated that dwarf mistletoe habitat in Alaska could expand from a low of 374% to a high of 757% over 100 years. Although low probability of long-distance transmission of dwarf mistletoe by birds and mammals from southeast Alaska to Prince William Sound means that new habitat in that region is unlikely to be occupied quickly, increased infection in southeast Alaska, where dwarf mistletoe is already present, is likely. (2) The EPA National Emissions Inventory is created every 3 years and forms the basis of regulatory modeling and numerous other studies including global climate change greenhouse gas reports, regulatory policy decisions, and state and federal implementation plans. In FY2012, AirFire worked with numerous stakeholders including federal agencies, regional planning organizations, state agencies, air quality regulators, and the EPA to significantly improve the existing 2008 NEI for wildland fire resulting in the publication of the 2008 NEI version 2. The new inventory significantly improves overall estimates of fire size, fuel loading, fuel consumption, and emissions by utilizing additional data sets and a new methodology for combining and reconciling disparate datasets into a unified data stream. (3) A new study of the ability of emissions to be transported to the Arctic is providing managers and policymakers with information relevant to mitigating Arctic Black Carbon deposition from the United States. The study uses a 30-year climatology of atmospheric transport patterns along with a real-time forecasting system. Results of the study show that even in locations and seasons where emissions can be transported to the Arctic quickly during most days, there are still a number of windows when Arctic transport does not occur. By re-focusing prescribed burning and other emissions activities into these windows where transport does not occur, mitigation of Arctic Black Carbon deposition is possible. (4) A team of experts was assembled to write a Synthesis and Review of Extreme Fire Behavior. This review discusses the definition of ⿿extreme fire behavior and examines the state of the science in various areas, such as critical weather patterns, spot fires, crown fire, and vortices. Discussion includes comparison of scientific knowledge with existing fire behavior literature and training for operational fire behaviorists. Volume 1 is written for general wildland firefighting personnel; a forthcoming Volume 2 will include more technical detail for fire behavior personnel. The compilation of these two volumes was funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) in response to fire managers' expressed need to have a comprehensive understanding on the state of knowledge. PARTICIPANTS: (1) Alaska Region State and Private Forestry, and Oregon State University. (2) U.S. Forest Service F&AM, Department of the Interior, Environmental Protection Agency, Joint Fire Science Program, Sonoma Technology, Inc., National Wildfire Coordinating Group Smoke Committee, Michigan Technology Research Institute. (3) Joint Fire Science Program, Sonoma Technology, Inc., USDA State Department Working Group, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, US State Department (4) Joint Fire Science Program; Weather Research and Consulting, LLC; Rocky Mountain Research Station; Southern Research Station; Dr. Marty Alexander (retired, Canadian Forest Service); CSIRO, Australia; San Jose State University
Impacts
(1) Dwarf mistletoe can be beneficial to wildlife, but can also substantially slow growth of infected trees. Forest managers have a number of silvicultural techniques that can be used to manage infection rates to meet their objectives. If managers in southeast Alaska know that increased spread and frequency of hemlock dwarf mistletoe is likely in the future, particularly where western hemlock grows above 200 m elevation, they can anticipate this and alter their silvicultural choices as a proactive response. (2) The results of this work resulted in the publication of version 2 of the EPA NEI for wildland fire. The new methodology and techniques created for this effort resulted in an updated process for creating the 2011 wildland fire NEI which begins production this September. The 2011 effort was kicked off at the EPA International Emissions Inventory Conference with a special workshop for stakeholders. (3) The results of this work were used in the EPA Report to Congress on Arctic Black Carbon, finalized in May 2012. Specifically, the work was used to identify that viable alternatives to seasonal bans on prescribed burning are available to mitigate Arctic Black Carbon deposition. Additionally, the work was presented to the USFS F&AM in Washington D.C., and to a joint USDA-Russia PNMA meeting in Moscow. In addition to the web-based tools a general technical report detailing this work has been developed. (4) Over 6,000 copies of the Synthesis and Review were printed, and the majority were distributed by JFSP to land management offices across the United States. The contents have been used to guide discussions in fire behavior training classes, and are being used by the National Wildfire Coordinating Group, Fire Behavior Working Group, as guidance during discussions about training curriculum revisions.
Publications
- Barrett, Tara M.; Latta, Greg; Hennon, Paul E.; Eskelson, Bianca N.I.; Temesgen, Hailemariam. 2012. Host-parasite distributions under changing climate: Tsuga heterophyla and Arceuthobium tsugense in Alaska. Canadian Journal of Forestry Research. 42: 642-656.
- Kennedy, Maureen C.; Ford, E. David. 2011. Using multi-criteria analysis of simulation models to understand complex biological systems. BioScience. 61(12): 994-1004.
- Maranghides, Alexander; Mell, William; Ridenour, Karen; McNamara, Derek. 2011. Initial reconnaissance of the 2011 wildland-urban interface fires in Amarillo, Texas. NIST Technical Note 1708. US Department of Commerce, National Institute of Standards and Technology: 38 p.
- Peterson, David L.; Allen, Craig D. ; Baron, Jill S.; Fagre, Daniel B.; McKenzie, Donald; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Malanson, George P.; Ojima, Dennis S.; Tague, Christina; van Mantgem, Phillip J. 2012. Response of western mountain ecosystems to climatic variability and change: a collaborative research approach. New York, NY: CRC Press. 27 p.
- Werth, Paul A.; Potter, Brian E.; Clements, Craig B.; Finney, Mark A.; Goodrick, Scott L.; Alexander, Martin E.; Cruz, Miguel G.; Forthofer, Jason A.; McAllister, Sara S. 2011. Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: volume I for fire managers. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-854. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 144 p.
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Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Substantial progress was made in several study areas under this problem during 2010. In fire, fuels and atmospheric research, analysis was completed and manuscripts submitted for publication for research on fire hazard conditions and fuels management in the Cedar River Municipal Watershed near Seattle. This work evaluated the spatial and temporal distribution of fuels created by ecological restoration and associated thinning to determine locations where hazard is greatest and to identify opportunities to implement fuel treatment to protect water and other resources. The analysis quantifies risk related to fuels and potential fire spread over time and space within the watershed. Significant progress was made in several areas of atmospheric research that link disparate time and/or spatial scales. Analysis of daily atmospheric fire potential maps in the PNW, and preliminary study of the Australian February 2009 fires, have provided significant insight into the way the atmospheric boundary layer interacts with larger scale (synoptic) airflow during large fire growth events. A field experiment in North Carolina obtained a unique data set on airflow and smoke transport below the forest canopy. These data will be critical to the development of models linking low intensity, below-canopy smoke transport to broader scale, regional smoke transport models. Scientists also examined the patterns of summertime precipitation events in the Northwest. This work led to the first identification of distinct categories of summertime events that bring significant rain, potentially causing erosion and affecting fire activity. Because these precipitation events are tied to real and potential vegetation patterns, this new event typing may provide a new way to utilize climate model scenarios at the landscape scale. Basic and applied ecological work under this problem included a study of snag decay dynamics and changes in surface fuel loadings across a 38-year chronosequence of stand-replacing wildfires in dry coniferous forests to examine interactions between snag decay and fuel succession processes, and how they can produce future high severity wildfires. In 2010, researchers analyzed field data and developed models describing changes in surface fuel loadings in different fuel size classes as functions of time since wildfire and pre-fire stand basal area. In other snag-related research, a study was completed on the relative performance of a variety of methods for estimating snag and cavity tree information when field data is limited but ancillary data from forest cover maps or remote sensing imagery are available. Several models provided reasonable results for predicting overall abundance of snags and cavity trees. Another area of research focused on prescribed fire and grazing as two potential threats that operate synergistically in interior western forests, but which are rarely examined together experimentally. In 2010, scientists analyzed field data and examined a diverse array of forest understory responses to repeated prescribed burning (5-yr reburns, spring vs. fall) and cattle grazing. In other work, a synthesis was initiated to examine the effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on characteristics of subsequent wildland fire, which involves surveying the scientific literature, identifying ongoing research and identifying gaps in knowledge. Invasive plants were the focus of two projects. Fifth-year results from a forest productivity study have identified lower abundances of non-native, invasive plants where logging debris was retained than where it was removed after harvesting mature Douglas-fir. Research continued with the Mountain Invasion Research Network (MIREN) that originally featured eight core mountain regions participating in standardized baseline screening and monitoring and in standardized comparative experiments. This year study locations were added in South Africa and India (Himalaya). PARTICIPANTS: TCM personnel/teams directly involved included David W. Peterson, Erich K. Dodson, John Lehmkuhl, Becky Kerns and Michelle Buonopane (EDEC Team); Morris Johnson and David L. Peterson (FERA Team); Tara Barrett, Jane Hayes, Catherine Parks, Bridget Naylor and Tim Harrington (RED Team); and Brian Potter, Tara Strand and Miriam Rorig (AIR Team). Major partners and collaborators included universities (Oregon State Univ., Univ. Idaho, Univ. Washington, Virginia Tech. Univ., Washington State Univ., San Jose State Univ.); National Forest System (Regions 6 and 10, Okanogan-Wenatchee and Deschutes Natl. Forests); state and local agencies (Oregon Dept. Forestry, Seattle Public Utilities); Victorian Dept. of Sustainability and Environment (Australia); and NGO's (Nature Conservancy). TARGET AUDIENCES: This work should be of interest to a broad range of ecological scientists and resource managers, including those working in the areas of fire and fuels, invasive plants, forest carbon dynamics, and wildlife habitat. Included are clientele working fire and fuels management, fire predictive services communities and air quality managers, forest and fire managers, biometricians, forest planners, natural resource managers, planners, and policy-makers, and weed scientists.
Impacts
Findings from the Cedar River Watershed project are being used by watershed resource managers to modify management objectives and strategies, with greater emphasis on fuels management concurrent with other activities. As a result of TCM scientific exchanges with Australia, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Bushfire CRC are considering how to incorporate coupling of the boundary layer with synoptic airflow in their bushfire severity forecasts. Some of what they are considering, but not all, derives from consultation with TCM scientists. Snag dynamics research demonstrated that surface woody fuels accumulated for about 15-20 years following wildfire. Pre-fire stand structure, species composition and stand size structure influenced snag decay dynamics and surface fuel processes. These findings will help forest managers project future surface fuel loadings following wildfires, assess current and future needs for fuel management treatments, and develop better snag retention guidelines that balance snag contributions to habitat for cavity-nesting birds with long-term fuel management and dry forest restoration objectives. Findings from the other snag-related study completed this year allow the prediction of cavity tree and snag abundance to be made from variables that are readily available so that spatially comprehensive, current, and very detailed information can be provided to managers and planners interested in assessing wildlife habitat in their forests. Findings from other ecological research under this problem indicated that post- prescribed fire cattle exclusion substantially increased total plant cover, grass height, and grass flower density. Frequent repeated prescribed burning failed to increase perennial native species cover or richness, and tended to reduce sedge cover and increase native colonizers and exotic species cover. Frequent fire may not necessarily be effective at restoring the forest understory in ponderosa pine forests, particularly when forest conditions have been highly altered and cattle grazing occurs after fires. Insect outbreaks are killing trees across millions of acres of forest in the western US raising public concerns about various issues, including damage to infrastructure, limitations to recreational activities, and, most prominently, wildfire. Results of studies to date of the temporally and spatially complex interaction between insect outbreaks and wildfire are equivocal and appear to be inconsistent with direct observations of fire managers and field personnel. Reconciling these seemingly disparate views is key to furthering a greater understanding of these disturbance interactions. Forest managers concerned about invasive plants will benefit from knowing that intensive harvesting practices that remove all woody materials, such as gathering biomass for energy production, are likely to increase abundance of non-native, invasive plants, especially Scotch broom, resulting in reduced survival and growth of planted Douglas-fir and reduced abundance of native plants. Managers of mountainous regions will benefit from MIREN that reviews, integrates and advances knowledge on plant invasions, uses elevational gradients in mountains as a model system for global change ecology, and promotes proactive ap¬proaches to managing potential future risks of plant invasions into mountains.
Publications
- D'Amore, David V.; Hennon, Paul E.; Schaberg, Paul, G.; Hawley, Gary J. 2009. Adaptation to exploit nitrate in surface soils predisposes yellow-cedar to climate change-induced decline and enhances the survival of recedar. Forest Ecology and Management. 258: 2261-2268.
- Kerns, Becky K.; Moore, Margaret M.; Hart, Stephen C. 2008. Understanding ponderosa pine forest-grassland vegetation dynamics at Fort Valley Experimental Forest using phytolith analysis. In: Olberding, Susan D., and Moore, Margaret M., tech. coords. Fort Valley Experimental Forest-A Century of Research 1908-2008. Conference Proceedings; August 7-9, 2008; Flagstaff, AZ. Proc. RMRS-P-55. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 191-195
- Larkin, Narasimhan K.; Strand, Tara; Solomon, Robert; Raffuse, Sean; Drury, Stacy A.; Sullivan, Dana; Wheler, Neil; Chinkin, Lyle. 2010. Developing an improved wildland fire emissions inventory. San Antonio, TX: United States, Environmental Protection Agency. 9 p.
- Slesak, Robert A.; Harrignton, Timothy B.; Schoenholtz, Stephen H. 2010. Soil and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) foliar nitrogen responses to variable logging-debris retention and competing vegetation control in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 40: 254-264.
- Slesak, Robert A.; Schoenholtz, Stephen H.; Harrington, Timothy B. 2010. Soil respiration and carbon responses to logging debris and competing vegetation. Forest, Range and Wildland Soils. 74(3): 936-946.
- Wells, Gail. 2010. The mighty oak faces challenges in the Pacific West. Science Update 20. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 11 p.
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