Advance the science and practice of resource forecasting, decision-making, knowledge integration, and risk management

ADVANCE THE SCIENCE AND PRACTICE OF RESOURCE FORECASTING, DECISION-MAKING, KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATION, AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Sponsoring Institution

Forest Service/USDA

Project Status

EXTENDED

Funding Source

USDA INHOUSE

Reporting Frequency

Annual

Accession No.

0413546

Grant No.

(N/A)

Cumulative Award Amt.

(N/A)

Proposal No.

(N/A)

Multistate No.

(N/A)

Project Start Date

Oct 1, 2007

Project End Date

Sep 30, 2022

Grant Year

(N/A)

Program Code

[(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
ROCKY MOUNTAIN RESEARCH STATION
240 WEST PROSPECT ROAD
FORT COLLINS,CO 80526-2098

Performing Department
(N/A)

Non Technical Summary
Effective resource management requires reliable information about the status, trends, and conditions of resources at various scales. The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment mandates periodic national scale analyses of natural resources across all ownerships in the United States. The research proposed under this problem includes a continued evolution of assessment methodologies to support the Forest Serviceâ¿¿s need to understand basic status and trends of natural resources as a foundation for effective planning. This understanding must consider not only past and current distribution, but also future potential impacts of climate change on vegetation structure and species diversity (plants and animals) and resiliency of forests, rangelands and fish and wildlife to management activities.

Animal Health Component

50%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

30%

Applied

50%

Developmental

20%

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
605	6299	3010	100%

Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics;

Subject Of Investigation
6299 - Marketing, general/other;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

Goals / Objectives
Making land management decisions is difficult at best. Such decisions need to be based on sound biophysical science. Problems society faces are complex, making it difficult to understand and predict results on the land. Land management decisions must also make good economic sense; if the costs outweigh the benefits, it is unlikely they can be implemented for very long, irrespective of how sound the biological science is underlying them. But to make the challenge even more difficult, even if decisions are based on the very best biophysical science and are economically viable, they might still prove difficult to implement if they lack public understanding and support. Thus, improved knowledge is needed about the acceptability of various management practices, risks, and the resulting conditions and guidelines on how this insight helps develop decisions that are sound (biophysically and socially), economically viable, and capable of implementation on the ground.

Project Methods
Research primarily concentrates on analyses to support requirements of the RPA assessment, i.e. â¿¿an analysis of present and anticipated uses, demand for, and supply of the renewable resources of forest, range, and other associated landâ¿¦â¿ for wildlife and fish, rangelands, and nonrenewable resources. This research supports the Forest Serviceâ¿¿s need to understand basic status and trends of natural resources as a foundation for effective planning and policy formulation. This work will be expanding to model and predict distribution and abundance changes on forest, range, fish and wildlife as a result of climate change

Progress 10/01/19 to 09/30/20

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Research and development activities were conducted by individual RMRS-HD scientists and technical staff and by integrated research teams under a wide range of formal projects, joint ventures and programs, including such efforts as the National Fire Decision Support Center (NFDSC), Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, Co-management of Fire Risk Transmission (CoMFRT), Wildfire Research (WiRĿ) Team, and many others. Outputs in this problem area (RMRS-4853-4) include 28 scientific publications. Dissemination of this primary research included dozens of presentations, workshops, seminars and consultations, facilitated by practitioner-oriented outreach publications, including RMRS Science You Can Use Bulletins focused on the forest and rangeland management community. Science dissemination activities were targeted at a wide range of local, regional, national and international audiences. Implementation of HD science advances was facilitated by collaboration with the National Forest System, specifically on critical needs in forest planning and management related to resource forecasting, decision-making, knowledge integration, and risk management. PARTICIPANTS: External research partners include other governmental research institutions, university personnel, non-governmental organizations, industry partners, foreign and international institutions, and others. Forest Service collaborators include scientists within the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Research Stations throughout the Forest Service, and the Washington Office Research and Development staff, and all other branches of the U.S. Forest Service. Collaborative relationships with planners and managers across the National Forest System were critical to conducting these research and development activities. Specific participants over the reporting period include: U.S. National Forest System, U.S. Forest Service State and Private Forestry, University of Florida, Oregon State University, Colorado State University, University of Colorado, Wildfire Research Center, University of Durham, Auburn University, Nature Serve, Social Climates Inc., University of Montana, Synergy, Lankston Consulting, Washington State University, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Social Science Strategies, Pacific Northwest Research Station, University of the Aegean, Wicked Problems Solutions, Utah State University, University of Idaho, Portland State University, Cascadia Conservation District, USFS Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, U.S. Department of Interior, Nature Conservancy, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council, and Seoul National University. TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. National Forest System; federal, state and private forest and rangeland managers and planners; federal, state and local policy makers; wildfire management professionals; forest and rangeland dependent rural communities; industry stakeholders, research scientists, and the American public, as well as the global natural resource management and research communities. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Loss of one Research Ecologist due to retirement, loss of one Research Economist due to career change, loss of HD Program Manager with Acting PM replacement, loss of two Postdoctoral Research Associates due to promotion to another program. Program Support Assistant position hired, Program Specialist hired, new Research Forester Position approved for hire.

Impacts
Research conducted by RMRS-HD played a crucial role in understanding the interface between the condition of natural resources and the demands of and impacts to a growing and changing human population. Without understanding how social, economic and ecological systems interact with each other, solutions to current and future problems cannot be achieved in a sustainable and socially acceptable manner. This team focused specifically on advancing the science and practice of resource forecasting, decision-making, knowledge integration, and risk management. Specific examples of outcomes and impacts of research in this problem area during the reporting period include: led agency-wide efforts related to resource forecasting and managing strategic risk. Key efforts in FY20 include: leading agency response to COVID-19 and working with WEPO, particularly with regard to managing risk in the workplace and fire camps; understanding wildfire exposure in the wildland urban interface; adapting to future water shortages caused by population growth and climate change; conducting high resolution inventory of ecosystems and natural resources; examining the effects of forest disturbance on the timber industry; integrating systems analysis, decision science and risk assessment into forest management and wildfire suppression operations; understanding local public priorities and preferences for public land management; developing new technologies in remote sensing, computer science, and forest operations; defining extreme wildfire events; advancing processes to support collaborative forest planning; and many others.

Publications

Schultz, Courtney A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; McCaffrey, Sarah M. 2019. Forest Service fire management and the elusiveness of change. Fire Ecology. 15: 13.
Tedim, Fantina; McCaffrey, Sarah; Leone, Vittorio; Delogu, Giuseppe Mariano; Castelnou, Marc ; McGee, Tara K.; Aranha, Jose. 2020. What can we do differently about the extreme wildfire problem: An overview [Chapter 13]. In: Tedim, Fantina; Leone, Vittorio; McGee, Tara K., eds. Extreme wildfire events and disasters: Root causes and new management strategies. Cambridge, MA: Elsevier. p. 233-264.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Bayham, Jude; Belval, Erin. 2020. Potential COVID-19 outbreak in fire camp: Modeling scenarios and interventions. Fire. 3: 38.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Wei, Yu; Calkin, David E.; O'Connor, Christopher D.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Hogland, John S. 2019. Risk management and analytics in wildfire response. Current Forestry Reports. 5: 226-239.
Walpole, Hugh D.; Wilson, Robyn S.; McCaffrey, Sarah M. 2019. If you love it, let it go: The role of home attachment in wildfire evacuation decisions. Environment Systems and Decisions. doi: 10.1007/s10669-019-09741-3.
Reeves, Matthew C.; Hanberry, Brice B.; Wilmer, Hailey; Kaplan, Nicole E.; Lauenroth, William K. 2020. An assessment of production trends on the Great Plains from 1984 to 2017. Rangeland Ecology and Management. doi: 10.1016/j.rama.2020.01.011.
Reeves, Matthew C.; Hanberry, Brice; Bruggink, Jeffrey L.; Krebs, Michael A.; Campbell, Steven B.; Baggett, L. Scott. 2020. A novel approach for estimating nonforest carbon stocks in support of forest plan revision. Res. Note RMRS-RN-86. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 20 p.
Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco; Martinez, Juan Ramon Molina; Thompson, Matthew P.; O⿿Connor, Kit. 2020. Landscape and Wildfires Seminary: Diagnosis and suppression, methodological advances. Cordoba, Spain: University of Cordoba, Forest Engineering Department, Forest Fire Laboratory. 47 p.
Rodriguez y Silva, Francisco; O⿿Connor, Christopher D.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Martinez, Juan Ramon Molina; Calkin, David E. 2020. Modelling suppression difficulty: Current and future applications. International Journal of Wildland Fire. doi: 10.1071/WF19042.
Schultz, Courtney A.; McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Huber-Stearns, Heidi R. 2019. Policy barriers and opportunities for prescribed fire application in the western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 28: 874-884.
Dunn, Christopher J.; O⿿Connor, Christopher D.; Abrams, Jesse; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Johnston, James D.; Stratton, Rick; Gilbertson-Day, Julie. 2020. Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality. Environmental Research Letters. 15: 025001.
Gannon, Benjamin M.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Deming, Kira Z.; Bayham, Jude; Wei, Yu; O⿿Connor, Christopher D. 2020. A geospatial framework to assess fireline effectiveness for large wildfires in the western USA. Fire. 3(3): 43.
Hogland, John; Affleck, David L. R.; Anderson, Nathaniel; Seielstad, Carl; Dobrowski, Solomon; Graham, Jon; Smith, Robert. 2020. Estimating forest characteristics for longleaf pine restoration using normalized remotely sensed imagery in Florida USA. Forests. 11: 426.
Joyce, Linda A.; Coulson, David. 2020. Climate scenarios and projections: A technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service 2020 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-413. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 85 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-GTR-413.
Kizha, Anil Raj; Han, Han-Sup; Anderson, Nathaniel; Koirala, Anil; Louis, Libin T. 2020. Comparing hot and cold loading in an integrated biomass recovery operation. Forests. 11: 385.
Klingbeil, Brian T.; Frank A. La Sorte; Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Fink, Daniel; Flather, Curtis H. 2020. Geographical associations with anthropogenic noise pollution for North American breeding birds. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 29: 148-158.
Langner, Linda L.; Joyce, Linda A.; Wear, David N.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Coulson, David; O'Dea, Claire B. 2020. Future scenarios: A technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service 2020 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-412. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 34 p. https://doi.org/10.2737/RMRS-GTR-412
McCaffrey, Sarah; McGee, Tara K. ; Coughlan, Michael; Tedim, Fantina. 2020. Understanding wildfire mitigation and preparedness in the context of extreme wildfires and disasters [Chapter 8]. In: Tedim, Fantina; Leone, Vittorio; McGee, Tara K., eds. Extreme wildfire events and disasters: Root causes and new management strategies. Cambridge, MA: Elsevier. p. 155-174.
Mueller, Stephanie E.; Thode, Andrea E.; Margolis, Ellis Q.; Yocom, Larissa L.; Young, Jesse D.; Iniguez, Jose M. 2020. Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015. Forest Ecology and Management. 460: 117861.
Niemiec, Rebecca M.; McCaffrey, Sarah; Jones, Megan S. 2020. Clarifying the degree and type of public good collective action problem posed by natural resource management challenges. Ecology and Society 25(1): 30.
O⿿Connor, Christopher D.; Falk, Donald A.; Garfin, Gregg M. 2020. Projected climate-fire interactions drive forest to shrubland transition on an Arizona Sky Island. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 8: Article 137.
Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Essen, Maureen; Hogland, John; Kalabokidis, Kostas. 2020. Locating forest management units using remote sensing and geostatistical tools in North-Central Washington, USA. Sensors. 20: 2454.
Rasch, Rebecca; McCaffrey, Sarah. 2019 Exploring wildfire-prone community trust in wildfire management agencies. Forest Science. 65(5): 652-663.
Reeves, Matt C.; Hanberry, Brice B.; Burden, Iric. 2020. Rapidly quantifying drought impacts to aid reseeding strategies. Rangelands. doi 10.1016/j.rala.2020.07.001.

Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/19

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Research and development activities were conducted by individual RMRS-HD scientists and technical staff and by integrated research teams under a wide range of formal projects, joint ventures and programs, including such efforts as the National Fire Decision Support Center (NFDSC), Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, Co-management of Fire Risk Transmission (CoMFRT), Wildfire Research (WiRĿ) Team, and many others. Outputs in this problem area (RMRS-4853-4) include 35 scientific publications. Dissemination of this primary research included dozens of presentations, workshops, seminars and consultations, facilitated by practitioner-oriented outreach publications, including RMRS Science You Can Use Bulletins focused on the forest and rangeland management community. Science dissemination activities were targeted at a wide range of local, regional, national and international audiences. Implementation of HD science advances was facilitated by collaboration with the National Forest System, specifically on critical needs in forest planning and management related to resource forecasting, decision-making, knowledge integration, and risk management. PARTICIPANTS: External research partners include other governmental research institutions, university personnel, non-governmental organizations, industry partners, foreign and international institutions, and others. Forest Service collaborators include scientists within the Rocky Mountain Research Station, Research Stations throughout the Forest Service, and the Washington Office Research and Development staff, and all other branches of the U.S. Forest Service. Collaborative relationships with planners and managers across the National Forest System were critical to conducting these research and development activities. Specific participants over the reporting period include: U.S. National Forest System, U.S. Forest Service State and Private Forestry, University of Florida, Oregon State University, Colorado State University, University of Colorado, Wildfire Research Center, University of Durham, Auburn University, Nature Serve, Social Climates Inc., University of Montana, Synergy, Lankston Consulting, Washington State University, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, Social Science Strategies, Pacific Northwest Research Station, University of the Aegean, Wicked Problems Solutions, Utah State University, University of Idaho, Portland State University, Cascadia Conservation District, USFS Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, U.S. Department of Interior, Nature Conservancy, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council, and Seoul National University. TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. National Forest System; federal, state and private forest and rangeland managers and planners; federal, state and local policy makers; wildfire management professionals; forest and rangeland dependent rural communities; industry stakeholders, research scientists, and the American public, as well as the global natural resource management and research communities. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Loss of one Research Ecologist due to retirement, loss of one Research Economist due to career change, loss of HD Program Manager with Acting PM replacement, loss of two Postdoctoral Research Associates due to promotion to another program. Program Support Assistant position approved for hire (currently vacant), new Research Ecologist Position approved for hire (currently vacant).

Impacts
Research conducted by RMRS-HD played a crucial role in understanding the interface between the condition of natural resources and the demands of and impacts to a growing and changing human population. Without understanding how social, economic and ecological systems interact with each other, solutions to current and future problems cannot be achieved in a sustainable and socially acceptable manner. This team focused specifically on advancing the science and practice of resource forecasting, decision-making, knowledge integration, and risk management. Specific examples of outcomes and impacts of research in this problem area during the reporting period include: understanding wildfire exposure in the wildland urban interface; development of new methods and techniques in remote sensing and GIS; understanding the social dimensions and health and safety aspects of wildland firefighting; adapting to future water shortages caused by population growth and climate change; improving methods in social science research; conducting high resolution inventory of ecosystems and natural resources; revealing fundamental ecological processes; examining the effects of forest disturbance on the timber industry; integrating systems analysis, decision science and risk assessment into forest management and wildfire suppression operations; understanding local public priorities and preferences for public land management; developing new technologies in remote sensing, computer science, and forest operations; defining extreme wildfire events; advancing processes to support collaborative forest planning; and many others.

Publications

Ager, Alan A.; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Evers, Cody R.; Day, Michelle A.; Ringo, Chris; Short, Karen. 2019. Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US. Applied Geography. 111: Article 102059.
Ahl, Robert; Hogland, John; Brown, Steve. 2019. A comparison of standard modeling techniques using digital aerial imagery with national elevation datasets and airborne LiDAR to predict size and density forest metrics in the Sapphire Mountains MT, USA. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 8: 24.
Becker, Ryer M.; Keefe, Robert F.; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Eitel, Jan U. H. 2018. Use of lidar-derived landscape parameters to characterize alternative harvest system options in the Inland Northwest. International Journal of Forest Engineering. 29(3): 179-191.
Belval, Erin J.; Calkin, David E.; Wei, Yu; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Masarie, Alex. 2018. Examining dispatching practices for Interagency Hotshot Crews to reduce seasonal travel distance and manage fatigue. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 27: 569-580.
Black, Anne; Thomas, David; Ziegler, Jennifer; Gabor, Elena; Fox, Rebekah. 2016. Risk perception, aensemaking and resilient performance: The sounds of wildland firefighting in action. Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program. JFSP Project No. 14-2-01-11. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 77 p.
Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Meldrum, James R.; Wilson, Pamela; Champ, Patricia A.; Barth, Christopher M.; Boag, Angela. 2019. Living with Wildfire in Montezuma County, Colorado: 2015 Data Report. Res. Note RMRS-RN-81. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 36 p.
Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Meldrum, James R.; Wilson, Pamela; Champ, Patricia A.; Barth, Christopher M.; Boag, Angela. 2019. Living with wildfire in La Plata County, Colorado: 2015 data report. Res. Note RMRS-RN-80. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 36 p.
Brown, Thomas C.; Mahat, Vinod; Ramirez, Jorge A. 2019. Adaptation to future water shortages in the United States caused by population growth and climate change. Earth's Future: 7.
Carter, Sarah K.; Fleishman, Erica; Leinwand, Ian I. F.; Flather, Curtis H.; Carr, Natasha B.; Fogarty, Frank A.; Leu, Matthias; Noon, Barry R.; Wohlfeil, Martha E.; Wood, David J. A. 2019. Quantifying ecological integrity of terrestrial systems to inform management of multiple-use public lands in the United States. Environmental Management. 64: 1-19.
Dunn, Christopher J.; O⿿Connor, Christopher D.; Reilly, Matthew J.; Calkin, Dave E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2019. Spatial and temporal assessment of responder exposure to snag hazards in post-fire environments. Forest Ecology and Management. 44: 202-214.
Hand, Michael S.; Roman, Lara A.; Locke, Dexter Henry; Fichman, Erica Smith. 2019. Phone-call reminders narrow the intention-action gap by increasing follow-through for a residential tree giveaway program. Urban Forestry and Urban Greening. 44: 126425.
Hogland, John; Affleck, David L. R. 2019. Mitigating the impact of field and image registration errors through spatial aggregation. Remote Sensing. 11: 222.
Hogland, John; Anderson, Nathaniel; Affleck, David; St. Peter, Joseph. 2019. Using forest inventory data with Landsat 8 imagery to map longleaf pine forest characteristics in Georgia, USA. Remote Sensing. 11: 1803.
Howard, Christine; Flather, Curtis H.; Stephens, Philip A. 2019. What drives at-risk species richness? Environmental factors are more influential than anthropogenic factors or biological traits. Conservation Letters. 12: e12624.
Klesse, Stefan; DeRose, R. Justin; Guiterman, Christopher H.; Lynch, Ann M.; O⿿Connor, Christopher D.; Shaw, John D.; Evans, Margaret E. K. 2018. Sampling bias overestimates climate change impacts on forest growth in the southwestern United States. Nature Communications. 9: 5336.
Krebs, Michael A.; Reeves, Matthew C.; Baggett, L. Scott. 2019. Predicting understory vegetation structure in selected western forests of the United States using FIA inventory data. Forest Ecology and Management. 448: 509-527.
Latif, Quresh S.; Saab, Victoria A.; Haas, Jessica R.; Dudley, Jonathan G. 2018. FIRE-BIRD: A GIS-based toolset for applying habitat suitability models to inform land management planning. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-391. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 74 p.
Loeffler, Dan; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2018. Impacts of the mountain pine beetle on sawmill operations, costs, and product values in Montana. Forest Products Journal. 68(1): 15-24.
Loeffler, Dan; Anderson, Nathaniel. 2018. Recovering from the mountain pine beetle. Montana Business Quarterly. Spring 2018: 22-26.
Marcot, Bruce G.; Fisher, Larry A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tomosy, Monica. 2015. Applying the science of decision making: a survey of use and needs in the national forest system. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 27 p.
Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Flather, Curtis H.; Jolly, William M.; Radeloff, Volker C. 2019. Future changes in fire weather, spring droughts, and false springs across U.S. National Forests and Grasslands. Ecological Applications. 29(5): e01904.
McCaffrey, Sarah M.; Duffner, Guy L.; Decker, Lynn M. 2018. Social dynamics of wildland fire in California [Chapter 27]. In: van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Sugihara, Neil G.; Stephens, Scott L.; Thode, Andrea E.; Shaffer, Kevin E.; Fites-Kaufman, Jo Ann, eds. Fire in California's Ecosystems. Oakland, CA: University of California Press. p. 507-516.
Roske, Molly R.; Joyce, Linda A.; Nagel, Linda M.; Peterson, Lara K.; Peterson, Courtney L.; Matonis, Megan. 2019. The Rio Grande National Forest Climate Change Plan Revision Workshop: Designing a science-management collaborative process to address 2012 planning rule climate change concerns at the forest plan scale. Res. Note RMRS-RN-84. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 17 p.
Sofaer, Helen R.; Flather, Curtis H.; Skagen, Susan K.; Steen, Valerie A.; Noon, Barry R. 2019. Clustering and ensembling approaches to support surrogatebased species management. Diversity and Distributions. 25: 1246-1258.
St. Peter, Joseph; Hogland, John; Hebblewhite, Mark; Hurley, Mark A.; Hupp, Nicole; Proffitt, Kelly. 2018. Linking phenological indices from digital cameras in Idaho and Montana to MODIS NDVI. Remote Sensing. 10: 1612.
Tedim, Fantina; Leone, Vittorio; Amraoui, Malik; Bouillon, Christophe; Coughlan, Michael R.; Delogu, Giuseppe M.; Fernandes, Paulo M.; Ferreira, Carmen; McCaffrey, Sarah; McGee, Tara K.; Parente, Joana; Paton, Douglas; Pereira, Mario G.; Ribeiro, Luís M.; Viegas, Domingos X.; Xanthopoulos, Gavriil. 2018. Defining extreme wildfire events: Difficulties, challenges, and impacts. Fire. 1: 9.
Townsend, Lucas; Dodson, Elizabeth; Anderson, Nathaniel; Worley-Hood, Graham; Goodburn, John. 2019. Harvesting forest biomass in the US southern Rocky Mountains: cost and production rates of five ground-based forest operations. International Journal of Forest Engineering 30(2): 163-172.
Meldrum, James R.; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Wilson, Pamela; Champ, Patricia A.; Barth, Christopher M.; Boag, Angela. 2019. Living with wildfire in Archeluta County, Colorado: 2015 data report. Res. Note RMRS-RN-79. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 38 p.
O⿿Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E. 2019. Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona). Wildfire. 28(1): 14-18.
Rasch, Rebecca; McCaffrey, Sarah. 2019. Local public priorities and preferences for public land management in the Northern Region. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-400. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 96 p.
Rasch, Rebecca; Reeves, Matt; Sorenson, Colin. 2018. Does oil and gas development impact recreation visits to public lands? A cross-sectional analysis of overnight recreation site use at 27 national forests with oil and gas development. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism. 24: 45-51.
Riley, Karin L.; Williams, A. Park; Urbanski, Shawn P.; Calkin, David E.; Short, Karen C.; O⿿Connor, Christopher D. 2019. Will landscape fire increase in the future? A systems approach to climate, fire, fuel, and human drivers. Current Pollution Reports. 5(2): 9-24.
Urbanski, Shawn P.; Reeves, Matt C.; Corley, Rachel E.; Silverstein, Robin P.; Hao, Wei Min. 2018. Contiguous United States wildland fire emission estimates during 2003-2015. Earth System Science Data. 10: 2241-2274.
Young, Jesse D.; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Naughton, Helen T. 2018. Influence of policy, air quality, and local attitudes toward renewable energy on the adoption of woody biomass heating systems. Energies. 11(11): 2873.
Young, Jesse D.; Thode, Andrea E.; Huang, Ching-Hsun; Ager, Alan A.; Fule, Pete Z. 2019. Strategic application of wildland fire suppression in the southwestern United States. Journal of Environmental Management. 245: 504-518.
Ziegler, J., Fox, R., Gabor, E., Thomas, D., & Black, A. 2015. Radio Technology Opportunities and Constraints: Using Dramaturgy as an Analytic Tool. Paper presented at the International Association of Wildland Fire ⿿Managing Fire, Understanding Ourselves: Human Dimensions in Safety and Wildland Fire, 13th International Wildland Fire Safety Summit & 4th Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire Conference, Boise, ID, April 20-24, 2015.

Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/17

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Making land management decisions is difficult at best. Such decisions need to be based in part on sound biophysical science. Problems society faces are complex, making it difficult to understand and predict results on the land. It is important that decisions make good economic sense; if the costs outweigh the benefits, it is unlikely they can be implemented for very long, irrespective of how sound the biological science is underlying them. But to make the challenge even more difficult, even if decisions are based on the very best biophysical science and are economically viable, they might still prove difficult to implement if they lack public understanding and support. Thus, managers need improved knowledge about the acceptability of various management practices that includes biological and social risks, feasibility and public acceptance. This work must account for differences between public and private lands. PARTICIPANTS: Linda Joyce, Curtis Flather, Nate Anderson, Michael Hand, Matthew Reeves, David Calkin, Matthew Thompson, Dan McCollum, Sarah McCaffrey, Patty Champ, Dan Williams, David Flores. TARGET AUDIENCES: Forest service managers, WO decision makers, wildfire risk managers, general public, academic community. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major project modification during this period.

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work and quantification of values at risk, and enterprise risk management, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The 4 RPA climate change scenarios being applied to range, water and fish and wildlife habitat conditions will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions. The economic feasibility of utilizing forest products, biochar, and removing fuels from forests will aide managers in project planning. Understanding individual decision processes, and methods to influence these decision to improve outcomes. Understanding forest service employees understanding of work-life balance, risk, and improving outcomes.

Publications

Preisler, Haiganoush K.; Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, Dave E.; Jolly, W. Matthew. 2016. Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the Western United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 25: 1169-1180.
Reeves, Matt C.; Manning, Mary E.; DiBenedetto, Jeff P.; Palmquist, Kyle A.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R. 2018. Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation in the northern Rockies [Chapter 6]. In: Halofsky Jessica; Peterson David L., eds. Climate Change and Rocky Mountain Ecosystems. Advances in Global Change Research, Vol. 63. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature. p. 97-114.
Reeves, Matt; Frid, Leonardo. 2016. The Rangeland Vegetation Simulator: A user-driven system for quantifying production, succession, disturbance and fuels in non-forest environments. In: Iwaasa, Alan; Lardner, H. A. (Bart); Schellenberg, Mike; Willms, Walter; Larson, Kathy, eds. Proceedings of the 10th International Rangelands Congress: The Future Management of Grazing and Wild Lands in a High-Tech World; 16-22 July, 2016; Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. The International Rangeland Congress. p. 1062-1063.
Reeves, Matthew C.; Bagget, L. Scott. 2014. A remote sensing protocol for identifying rangelands with degraded productive capacity. Ecological Indicators. 43: 172-182.
Reeves, Matthew C.; Moreno, Adam L.; Bagne, Karen E.; Running, Steven W. 2014. Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States. Climatic Change. 126: 429-442.
Reeves, Matthew Clark; Bagne, Karen E.; Tanaka, John. 2017. Potential climate change impacts on four biophysical indicators of cattle production from western US rangelands. Rangeland Ecology and Management. 70(5): 529-539.
Reynolds, Richard T.; Lambert, Jeffrey S.; Flather, Curtis H.; White, Gary C.; Bird, Benjamin J.; Baggett, L. Scott; Lambert, Carrie; Bayard De Bolo, Shelley. 2017. Long-term demography of the Northern Goshawk in a variable environment. Wildlife Monographs. 197: 1-40.
Rice, Janine; Bardsley, Tim; Gomben, Pete; Bambrough, Dustin; Weems, Stacey; Huber, Allen; Joyce, Linda A. 2017. Assessment of aspen ecosystem vulnerability to climate change for the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests, Utah. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-366. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 67 p.
Rice, Janine; Bardsley, Tim; Gomben, Pete; Bambrough, Dustin; Weems, Stacey; Leahy, Sarah; Plunkett, Christopher; Condrat, Charles; Joyce, Linda A. 2017. Assessment of watershed vulnerability to climate change for the Uinta-Wasatch-Cache and Ashley National Forests, Utah. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-362. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 111 p.
Riley, Karin L.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Finney, Mark A. 2015. Seeing the forest for the trees: utilizing modified random forests imputation of forest plot data for landscape-level analyses. In: Stanton, Sharon M.; Christensen, Glenn A., comps. 2015. Pushing boundaries: new directions in inventory techniques and applications: Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) symposium 2015. 2015 December 8⿿10; Portland, Oregon. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-931. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p 66.
Riley, Karin L.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Finney, Mark A.; Crookston, Nicholas L. 2014. Utilizing random forests imputation of forest plot data for landscape-level wildfire analyses. In: Viegas, Domingos Xavier, ed. Advances in Forest Fire Research. Coimbra, Portugal: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra. p. 583-590.
Riley, Karin L.; Stonesifer, Crystal; Preisler, Haiganoush; Calkin, Dave. 2014. Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service⿿s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA. In: Viegas, Domingos Xavier, ed. Advances in Forest Fire Research. Coimbra, Portugal: Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra. p. 1239-1248.
Smith, Lamar; Hicks, Joe; Lusk, Scott; Hemmovich, Mike; Green, Shane; McCord, Sarah; Pellant, Mike; Mitchell, John; Dyess, Judith; Sprinkle, Jim; Gearhart, Amanda; Karl, Sherm; Hannemann, Mike; Spaeth, Ken; Karl, Jason; Reeves, Matt; Pyke, Dave; Spaak, Jordan; Brischke, Andrew; Despain, Del; Phillippi, Matt; Weixelmann, Dave; Bass, Alan; Page, Jessie; Metz, Lori; Toledo, David; Kachergis, Emily. 2017. Does size matter? Animal units and animal unit months. Rangelands. 39(1): 17-19.
Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 598-603.
Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Kaiden, Jeffrey D. 2014. Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions. Journal of Forestry. 112(6): 581-590.
Thomey, Michell L.; Ford, Paulette L.; Reeves, Matt C.; Finch, Deborah M.; Litvak, Marcy E.; Collins, Scott L. 2014. Review of climate change impacts on future carbon stores and management of warm deserts of the United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-316. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 26 p.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2015. Modeling fuel treatment impacts on fire suppression cost savings: A review. California Agriculture. 69(3):164-170.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Systems thinking and wildland fire management. In: Proceedings of the 60th Annual Meeting of the ISSS-2016; Boulder, CO. International Society for the Systems Sciences. 17 p. Online: http://journals.isss.org/index.php/proceedings60th/article/view/2906.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Silva, Francisco Rodriguez y; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S. 2017. A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 562-573.
Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, David; Scott, Joe H.; Hand, Michael. 2017. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 31-41.
Thompson, Matthew; Warmink, Jord J. 2017. Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 11-19.
Tillery, Anne C.; Haas, Jessica R.; Miller, Lara W.; Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Potential postwildfire debris-flow hazards - a prewildfire evaluation for the Sandia and Manzano Mountains and surrounding areas, central New Mexico. Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5161. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey. 24 p.
Warziniack, Travis. 2014. A general equilibrium model of ecosystem services in a river basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 50(3): 683-695.
Wei, Yu; Belval, Erin J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, Dave E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S. 2017. A simulation and optimisation procedure to model daily suppression resource transfers during a fire season in Colorado. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 630-641.
Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Flather, Curtis H.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Albright, Thomas P.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J. 2016. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data. Ecological Applications. 26(8): 2718-2729.
Cooke, Brian; Elliot, Bill; Miller, Mary Ellen; Finney, Mark; Thompson, Matthew. 2016. Protecting the source: Tools to evaluate fuel treatment cost vs. water quality protection. Science You Can Use Bulletin, Issue 21. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. 9 p.
Finch, Deborah M.; Pendleton, Rosemary L.; Reeves, Matt C.; Ott, Jeffrey E.; Kilkenny, Francis F.; Butler, Jack L.; Ott, Jacqueline P.; Pinto, Jeremy R.; Ford, Paulette L.; Runyon, Justin B.; Rumble, Mark A.; Kitchen, Stanley G. 2016. Rangeland drought: Effects, restoration, and adaptation [Chap. 8]. In: Vose, James M.; Clark, James S.; Luce, Charles H.; Patel-Weynard, Toral, eds. Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: A comprehensive science synthesis. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-93b. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office. p. 155-194.
Flather, C. H. 2016. Wildlife, fish, and biodiversity [Chapter 11]. In: USDA Forest Service. 2016. Future of America's Forests and Rangelands: Update to the 2010 Resources Planning Act Assessment. Gen. Tech. Report WO-GTR-94. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. p. 11-1 - 11-16.
Hand, Michael S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2016. Examining heterogeneity and wildfire management expenditures using spatially and temporally descriptive data. Journal of Forest Economics. 22: 80-102.
Hunt, E. Raymond, Jr.; Wang, Cuizhen; Booth, D. Terrance; Cox, Samuel E.; Kumar, Lalit; Reeves, Matthew C. 2016. Remote sensing of rangeland biodiversity [Chapter 11]. In: Thenkabail, Prasad S., ed. Remote Sensing Handbook, Vol. II: Land Resources Monitoring, Modeling, and Mapping with Remote Sensing. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group. p. 277-308.
Riley, Karin L.; Grenfell, Isaac C.; Finney, Mark A. 2016. Mapping forest vegetation for the western United States using modified random forests imputation of FIA forest plots. Ecosphere. 7(10): e01472.
Riley, Karin L.; Loehman, Rachel A. 2016. Mid-21st- century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States. Ecosphere. 7(11): Article e01543.
Riley, Karin; Thompson, Matthew. 2017. An uncertainty analysis of wildfire modeling [Chapter 13]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223, First Edition. American Geophysical Union. p. 193-213.
Riley, Karin; Thompson, Matthew; Webley, Peter; Hyde, Kevin D. 2017. Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223, First Edition. American Geophysical Union. p. 1-8.
Waldron, Alexis L.; Schary, David P.; Cardinal, Bradley J. 2015. Measuring wildland fire leadership: the crewmember perceived leadership scale. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 24: 1168-1175.
Anderson, N.; Young, J.; Stockmann, K.; Skog, K.; Healey, S.; Loeffler, D.; Jones, J.G.; Morrison, J. 2013. Regional and forest-level estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from the United States Forest Service Northern Region, 1906-2010. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-311. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 114 p.
Belval, Erin J.; Wei, Yu; Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tipton, John R. 2017. Studying interregional wildland fire engine assignments for large fire suppression. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 642-653.
Bergman, Richard D.; Gu, Hongmei; Page-Dumroese, Deborah S.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2017. Life cycle analysis of biochar [Chapter 3]. In: Bruckman, Viktor; Varol, Esin Apaydin; Uzun, Basak; Liu, Jay, eds. Biochar: A Regional Supply Chain Approach in View of Climate Change Mitigation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. p. 46-69.
Brown, Thomas C.; Kroll, Stephan. 2017. Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity. Climatic Change. 141(2): 155-166.
Adams, Theodore Ted; Butler, Bret W.; Brown, Sara; Wright, Vita; Black, Anne. 2017. Bridging the divide between fire safety research and fighting fire safely: How do we convey research innovation to contribute more effectively to wildland firefighter safety? International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 107-112.
Chung, Woodam; Evangelista, Paul; Anderson, Nathaniel; Vorster, Anthony; Han, Hee; Poudel, Krishna; Sturtevant, Robert. 2017. Estimating aboveground tree biomass for beetle-killed lodgepole pine in the Rocky Mountains of northern Colorado. Forest Science. 63(4): 413-419.
Baldwin, Rob; Scherzinger, Ryan; Lipscomb, Don; Mockrin, Miranda; Stein, Susan. 2014. Planning for land use and conservation: Assessing GIS-based conservation software for land use planning. Res. Note RMRS-RN-70. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 33 p.
Becker, Ryer M.; Keefe, Robert F.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2017. Use of real-time GNSS-RF data to characterize the swing movements of forestry equipment. Forests. 8(2): 44.
Carter, Sarah K.; Carr, Natasha B.; Flather, Curtis H.; Fleishman, Erica; Leu, Matthias; Noon, Barry R.; Wood, David J. A. 2017. Assessing ecological integrity using multiscale information from Bureau of Land Management Assessment and Monitoring Programs [Chapter 4]. In: Carter, Sarah K.; Carr, Natasha B.; Miller, Kevin H.; Wood, David J. A., eds. Multiscale Guidance and Tools for Implementing a Landscape Approach to Resource Management in the Bureau of Land Management. Open-File Report 2016-1207. Reston, VA: U.S. Geological Survey. p. 39-53.
Derner, Justin; Briske, David; Reeves, Matt; Brown-Brandl, Tami; Meehan, Miranda; Blumenthal, Dana; Travis, William; Augustine, David; Wilmer, Hailey; Scasta, Derek; Hendrickson, John; Volesky, Jerry; Edwards, Laura; Peck, Dannele. 2017. Vulnerability of grazing and confined livestock in the Northern Great Plains to projected mid- and late-twenty-first century climate. Climatic Change. doi: 10.1007/s10584-017-2029-6.
Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. Towards enhanced risk management: Planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 551-556.
Dunn, Christopher J.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2017. A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm. Forest Ecology and Management. 404: 184-196.
English, Donald B. K.; Froemke, Pam; Hawkos, Kathleen. 2014. Paths more traveled: Predicting future recreation pressures on America⿿s national forests and grasslands - a Forests on the Edge report. FS-1034. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 36 p.
Flather, C. H.; Knowles, M. S.; Baggett, L. S. 2017. Land cover dynamics across the Great Plains and their influence on breeding birds: Potential artefact of data and analysis limitations. Biological Conservation. 213: 243-244.
Gebert, Krista; Jones, Greg; Champ, Patty; Czaja, Mike; Oliver, Chuck; Cruz, Paul E.; Clement, Jessica. 2014. Beetles among us: Social and economic impacts of the MPB epidemic [Chapter 6]. In: Matonis, M.; Hubbard, R.; Gebert, K.; Hahn, B.; Miller, S.; Regan, C. Future Forests Webinar Series, Webinar Proceedings and Summary: Ongoing Research and Management Responses to the Mountain Pine Beetle Outbreak. Proceedings RMRS-P-70. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 49-60.
Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Brooks, Kenneth N.; Kolka, Randall K.; Raish, Carol B.; Neary, Daniel G. 2014. Contributions of studies on experimental forests to hydrology and watershed management [Chapter 14]. In: Hayes, D.C.; Stout, S.L.; Crawford, R.H.; Hoover, A.P., eds. USDA Forest Service experimental forests and ranges research for the long term. New York, NY: Springer. p. 311-340.
Haas, Jessica R.; Thompson, Matthew; Tillery, Anne; Scott, Joe H. 2017. Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris⿐flow hazard assessments [Chapter 20]. In: Riley, Karin; Webley, Peter; Thompson, Matthew, eds. Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment: Modeling and Decision Support, Geophysical Monograph 223 (First Edition). American Geophysical Union. p. 301-317.
Halofsky, Jessica E.; Joyce, Linda A.; Millar, Constance I.; Peterson, David L.; Rice, Janine M. 2017. Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions in the western United States [Chapter 12]. In: Sample, V. Alric; Bixler, R. Patrick; Miller, Cha,. eds. Forest conservation in the Anthropocene: Science, policy, and practice. Boulder, CO: University Press of Colorado. p. 165-178.
Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; Joyce, Linda A.; Millar, Constance I.; Rice, Janine M.; Swanston, Christopher W. 2014. Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the United States. In: Sample, V. Alaric; Bixler, R. Patrick, eds. Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings. Proceedings. RMRS-P-71. Fort Collins, CO: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 229-243.
Hand, Michael S.; Gebert, Krista M.; Liang, Jingjing; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Zhou, Mo. 2014. Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models. Springer Briefs In Fire. New York, NY: Springer. 71 p.
Hand, Michael; Katuwal, Hari; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 615-629.
Hogland, John S.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2015. Estimating FIA plot characteristics using NAIP imagery, function modeling, and the RMRS raster utility coding library. In: Stanton, Sharon M.; Christensen, Glenn A., comps. 2015. Pushing boundaries: new directions in inventory techniques and applications: Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) symposium 2015. 2015 December 8-10; Portland, Oregon. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-931. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 340-344.
Hines, Sarah; Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Champ, Patty; Joyce, Linda; Jeff Lukas; Robichaud, Pete; Ryan-Burkett, Sandra. 2014. Our relationship with a dynamic landscape: Understanding the 2013 Northern Colorado Flood. Science You Can Use Bulletin, Issue 10. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. 15 p.
Hogland, John S.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2014. Improved analyses using function datasets and statistical modeling. In: Proceedings of the 2014 ESRI Users Conference; July 14-18, 2014, San Diego, CA. Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute. Online: http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc14/papers/166_182.pdf.
Hogland, John S.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2015. Estimating FIA plot characteristics using NAIP imagery, function modeling, and the RMRS Raster Utility coding library. In: Stanton, Sharon M.; Christensen, Glenn A., eds. Pushing boundaries: new directions in inventory techniques and applications: Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) symposium 2015. Gen. Tech. Rep, PNW-GTR-931. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. p. 340-344.
Katuwal, Hari; Dunn, Christopher J.; Calkin, David E. 2017. Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 604-614.
Hogland, John S; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Chung, Woodam; Wells, Lucas. 2014. Estimating forest characteristics using NAIP imagery and ArcObjects. In: Proceedings of the 2014 ESRI Users Conference; July 14-18, 2014, San Diego, CA. Redlands, CA: Environmental Systems Research Institute. Online: http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc14/papers/155_181.pdf.
Hogland, John; Anderson, Nathaniel. 2017. Function modeling improves the efficiency of spatial modeling using big data from remote sensing. Big Data and Cognitive Computing. 1(3): 1-14.
Joyce, Linda A.; Marshall, Nadine A. 2017. Managing climate change risks in rangeland systems [Chapter 15]. In: Briske, D. D., ed. Rangeland systems: Processes, management and challenges. Springer Series on Environmental Management. Cham, Switzerland: Springer Nature. p. 491-526.
Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. 2015. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 345 p.
Loeffler, Dan; Anderson, Nathaniel; Stockmann, Keith; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James; Young, Jesse. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Alaska Region, 1910-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 26 p.
Loeffler, Dan; Anderson, Nathaniel; Stockmann, Keith; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James; Young, Jesse. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Eastern Region, 1911-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 27 p.
Loeffler, Dan; Anderson, Nathaniel; Stockmann, Keith; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James; Young, Jesse. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Southern Region, 1911-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 27 p.
Loeffler, Dan; Hoyt, Stu; Anderson, Nathaniel. 2017. Production rates for United States Forest Service brush disposal planning in the northern Rocky Mountains. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-358. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 33 p.
Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Bonnot, Thomas W.; Thompson, Frank R. 2016. Uncertainty is information, too. The Wildlife Professional. January/February 2016. 30-33.
Miller, Sue; Essen, Maureen; Anderson, Nate; Chung, Woody; Elliot, Bill; Page-Dumroese, Deb; Han, Han-Sup; Hogland, John; Keyes, Christopher R. 2014. Burgeoning biomass: Creating efficient and sustainable forest biomass supply chains in the Rockies. Science You Can Use Bulletin, Issue 13. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. 10 p.
O'Connor, Christopher D.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2017. An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 26: 587-597.
O'Connor, Christopher D.; Falk, Donald A.; Lynch, Ann M.; Swetnam, Thomas W.; Wilcox, Craig P. 2017. Disturbance and productivity interactions mediate stability of forest composition and structure. Ecological Applications. 27(3): 900-915.
Olsen, Christine S.; Kline, Jeffrey D.; Ager, Alan A.; Olsen, Keith A.; Short, Karen C. 2017. Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes. Ecology and Society. 22(1):21. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09054-220121.
Page-Dumroese, Deborah S.; Anderson, Nathaniel M.; Windell, Keith N.; Englund, Karl; Jump, Kevin. 2016. Development and use of a commercial-scale biochar spreader. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-354. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 10 p.

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Making land management decisions is difficult at best. Such decisions need to be based in part on sound biophysical science. Problems society faces are complex, making it difficult to understand and predict results on the land. It is important that decisions make good economic sense; if the costs outweigh the benefits, it is unlikely they can be implemented for very long, irrespective of how sound the biological science is underlying them. But to make the challenge even more difficult, even if decisions are based on the very best biophysical science and are economically viable, they might still prove difficult to implement if they lack public understanding and support. Thus, managers need improved knowledge about the acceptability of various management practices that includes biological and social risks, feasibility and public acceptance. This work must account for differences between public and private lands. PARTICIPANTS: Mike Bevers, Linda Joyce, Curtis Flather, Nate Anderson, Michael Hand, Matthew Reeves, David Calkin, Matthew Thompson, Dan McCollum, Miranda Mockrin

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work and quantification of values at risk, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The 4 RPA climate change scenarios being applied to range, water and fish and wildlife habitat conditions will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions. The economic feasibility of removing fuels from forests will aide managers in project planning.

Publications

Chocron, Rachel; Flather, Curtis H.; Kadmon, Ronen. 2015. Bird diversity and environmental heterogeneity in North America: A test of the area-heterogeneity trade-off. Global Ecology and Biogeography. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 24: 1225-1235.
Czech, B.; Covington, S.; Crimmins, T. M.; Ericson, J. A.; Flather, C.; Gale, M.; Gerst, K.; Higgins, M.; Kaib, M.; Marino, E.; Moran, T.; Morton, J.; Niemuth, N.; Peckett, H.; Savignano, D.; Saperstein, L.; Skorupa, S.; Wagener, E.; Wilen, B.; Wolfe, B. 2014. Planning for climate change on the National Wildlife Refuge System. Washington, DC: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Wildlife Refuge System. 132 p.
Gutzwiller, Kevin J.; Riffell, Samuel K.; Flather, Curtis H. 2015. Avian abundance thresholds, human-altered landscapes, and the challenge of assemblage-level conservation. Landscape Ecology. 30: 2095-2110.
Haire, Sandra L.; Miller, Carol; McGarigal, Kevin. 2015. Influence of landscape gradients in wilderness management and spatial climate on fire severity in the Northern Rockies USA, 1984 to 2010. In: Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 104-110.
Kalyuzhny, Michael; Seri, Efrat; Chocron, Rachel; Flather, Curtis H.; Kadmon, Ronen; Shnerb, Nadav M. 2014. Niche versus neutrality: A dynamical analysis. The American Naturalist. 184(4): 439-446.
Kim, Dongyeob; Anderson, Nathaniel McLean; Chung, Woodam. 2015. Financial performance of a mobile pyrolysis system used to produce biochar from sawmill residues. Forest Products Journal. 65(5/6): 189-197.
Landres, Peter; Barns, Chris; Boutcher, Steve; Devine, Tim; Dratch, Peter; Lindholm, Adrienne; Merigliano, Linda; Roeper, Nancy; Simpson, Emily. 2015. Keeping it wild 2: An updated interagency strategy to monitor trends in wilderness character across the National Wilderness Preservation System. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-340. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 114 p.
Malcolm, Karl; Thompson, Matthew; Calkin, Dave; Finney, Mark; Ager, Alan. 2012. Wildfire triage: Targeting mitigation based on social, economic, and ecological values. Science You Can Use Bulletin, Issue 2. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. 9 p.
O'Donnell, Derek T.; Venna, Tyron J.; Calkin, David E. 2014. Are wildfire management resources in the United States efficiently allocated to protect resources at risk? A case study from Montana. Economic Analysis and Policy. 44: 318-332.
Parks, Sean A.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Miller, Carol; Nelson, Cara R. 2015. Wildland fire as a self-regulating mechanism: the role of previous burns and weather in limiting fire progression. Ecological Applications. 25(6): 1478-1492.
Pidgeon, Anna M.; Flather, Curtis H.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Wood, Eric M.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B. 2014. Systematic temporal patterns in the relationship between housing development and forest bird biodiversity. Conservation Biology. 28(5): 1291-1301.
Scott, J. H.; Helmbrecht, D. J.; Thompson, M. P. 2014. Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA. Res. Note: RMRS-RN-71. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 36 p.
Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2015. Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management (Publ.). In: Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 196-206.
Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2015. Exploring how alternative mapping approaches influence fireshed assessment and human community exposure to wildfire. GeoJournal. doi: 10.1007/s10708-015-9679-6.
Sturges, Frank; Joyce, Linda; Brown, Tom; Flather, Curt; Mockrin, Miranda; Reeves, Matt. 2013. Coming to a landscape near you: Natural resource changes in the Interior West. Science You Can Use Bulletin, Issue 8. Fort Collins, CO: Rocky Mountain Research Station. 13 p.
Thompson, Matthew P. ; Haas, Jessica R.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Scott, Joe H.; Langowski, Paul; Bowne, Elise; Calkin, David E. 2015. Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool. Environmental Modelling and Software. 63: 61-72.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Scott, Joe H. 2015. Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: Application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. doi: 10.1007/s10666-015-9469-z.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Haas, Jessica R.; Finney, Mark A.; Calkin, David E.; Hand, Michael S.; Browne, Mark J.; Halek, Martin; Short, Karen C.; Grenfell, Isaac C. 2015. Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling. Forest Policy and Economics. 50: 249-258.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Noonan-Wright, Erin K.; Opperman, Tonja S. 2015. Decision making under uncertainty: Recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS). In: Keane, Robert E.; Jolly, Matt; Parsons, Russell; Riley, Karin. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 317-319.
Wei, Yu; Bevers, Michael; Belval, Erin J. 2015. Designing seasonal initial attack resource deployment and dispatch rules using a two-stage stochastic programming procedure. Forest Science. 61. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.5849/forsci.14-182
Wei, Yu; Bevers, Michael; Belval, Erin; Bird, Benjamin. 2015. A chance-constrained programming model to allocate wildfire initial attack resources for a fire season. Forest Science. 61(2): 278-288.
Wood, Eric M.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Helmers, David P.; Culbert, Patrick D.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Flather, Curtis H. 2015. Long-term avian community response to housing development at the boundary of US protected areas: Effect size increases with time. Journal of Applied Ecology. 52: 1227-1236.
Wood, Eric M.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Helmers, David; Culbert, Patrick D.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Flather, Curtis H. 2014. Housing development erodes avian community structure in U.S. protected areas. Ecological Applications. 24(6): 1445-1462.
Batllori, Enric; Miller, Carol; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Parks, Sean A.; Moritz, Max A. 2014. Is U.S. climatic diversity well represented within the existing federal protection network? Ecological Applications. 24(8): 1898-1907.
Briske, David D.; Joyce, Linda A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Brown, Joel R.; Wolter, Klaus; Morgan, Jack A.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Bailey, Derek W. 2015. Climate-change adaptation on rangelands: Linking regional exposure with diverse adaptive capacity. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 13(5): 249-256.
Calkin, David E.; Mentis, Mike. 2015. Opinion: The use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty. Forest Ecosystems. 2:11. doi: 10.1186/s40663-015-0034-7.
Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Finney, Mark A. 2015. Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management. Forest Ecosystems. 2:9. doi: 10.1186/s40663-015-0033-8.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Making land management decisions is difficult at best. Such decisions need to be based in part on sound biophysical science. Problems society faces are complex, making it difficult to understand and predict results on the land. It is important that decisions make good economic sense; if the costs outweigh the benefits, it is unlikely they can be implemented for very long, irrespective of how sound the biological science is underlying them. But to make the challenge even more difficult, even if decisions are based on the very best biophysical science and are economically viable, they might still prove difficult to implement if they lack public understanding and support. Thus, managers need improved knowledge about the acceptability of various management practices that includes biological and social risks, feasibility and public acceptance. This work must account for differences between public and private lands. PARTICIPANTS: Mike Bevers, Linda Joyce, Curtis Flather, Nate Anderson, Michael Hand, Matthew Reeves, David Calkin, Matthew Thompson, Dan McCollum, Miranda Mockrin PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: change project end date to 2017

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work and quantification of values at risk, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The 4 RPA climate change scenarios being applied to range, water and fish and wildlife habitat conditions will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions. The economic feasibility of removing fuels from forests will aide managers in project planning.

Publications

Butler, Edward; Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James; Young, Jesse. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Pacific Northwest Region, 1909-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 28 p.
Butler, Edward; Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Young, Jesse; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Southwestern Region, 1909-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 27 p.
Calkin, David C.; Finney, Mark A.; Ager, Alan A.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2011. Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making. Forest Policy and Economics. 13(5): 378-389.
Calkin, David E.; Cohen, Jack D.; Finney, Mark A.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface. PNAS. 111(2): 746-751.
Calkin, David E.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Thompson, Matthew P.; McHugh, Charles W. 2014. Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23: 259-271.
Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T.; Coulson, David P.; McKenney, Daniel W.; Siltanen, R. Martin; Papadopol, Pia; Lawrence, Kevin. 2014. Projecting climate change in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-320. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 85 p.
Carver, Steve; Tricker, James; Landres, Peter. 2013. Keeping it wild: Mapping wilderness character in the United States. Journal of Environmental Management. 131: 239-255.
Joyce, Linda A.; Running, Steven W.; Breshears, David D.; Dale, Virginia H.; Malmsheimer, Robert W.; Sampson, R. Neil; Sohngen, Brent; Woodall, Christopher W. 2014. Forests [Chapter 7]. In: Melillo, J. M.; Richmond, T. C.; Yohe, G. W., eds. Climate change impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program. p. 175-194.
Kalyuzhny, Michael; Schreiber, Yishai; Chocron, Rachel; Flather, Curtis H.; Kessler, David A.; Shnerb, Nadav M. 2014. Temporal fluctuation scaling in populations and communities. Ecology. 95(6): 1701-1709.
Keefe, Robert; Anderson, Nathaniel; Hogland, John; Muhlenfeld, Ken. 2014. Woody biomass logistics [Chapter 14]. In: Karlen, Douglas, ed. Cellulosic Energy Cropping Systems. West Sussex, UK: John Wiley and Sons. p. 251-279.
Culbert, Patrick D.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Flather, Curtis H.; Kellndorfer, Josef M.; Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Pidgeon, Anna M. 2013. The influence of vertical and horizontal habitat structure on nationwide patterns of avian biodiversity. The Auk. 130(4): 656-665.
Essen, Maureen; Morris, Caroline; Anderson, Nathaniel. 2014. Tucker RNG: Little machine, big impact. Biomass Magazine. 8(7): 20-21.
Joyce, Linda A.; Millar, Constance I. 2014. Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation. In: Sample, V. Alaric; Bixler, R. Patrick, eds. Forest conservation and management in the Anthropocene: Conference proceedings. Proceedings. RMRS-P-71. Fort Collins, CO: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 245-271.
Landres, Peter; Stutzman, Suzy; Vagias, Wade; Cook, Carol; Mills, Christina; Devine, Tim; Dingman, Sandee; Lindholm, Adrienne; Stuebe, Miki; Memory, Melissa; Scott, Ruth; Bilecki, Michael; O'Neil, Ray; Holbeck, Chris; Turina, Frank; Haynie, Michael; Craighead, Sarah; Jenkins, Chip; Curtis, Jeremy; Trevino, Karen. 2014. Keeping it wild in the National Park Service: A user guide to integrating wilderness character into park planning, management, and monitoring. WASO 909/121797. Lakewood, CO: U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Wilderness Stewardship Division, Denver Service Center. 219 p.
Maker, Neal F.; Germain, Rene H.; Anderson, Nathaniel M. 2014. Working woods: A case study of sustainable forest management on Vermont family forests. Journal of Forestry. 112(4): 371-380.
Miller, Carol. 2014. The contribution of natural fire management to wilderness fire science. International Journal of Wilderness. 20(2): 20-25.
Parisien, Marc-Andre; Parks, Sean A.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.; Gowman, Lynn M.; Moritz, Max A. 2014. An analysis of controls on fire activity in boreal Canada: comparing models built with different temporal resolutions. Ecological Applications. 24(6): 1341-1356.
Parks, Sean A. 2014. Mapping day-of-burning with coarse-resolution satellite fire-detection data. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 23: 215-223.
Parks, Sean A.; Dillon, Gregory K.; Miller, Carol. 2014. A new metric for quantifying burn severity: The Relativized Burn Ratio. Remote Sensing. 6: 1827-1844.
Parks, Sean A.; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Miller, Carol; Dobrowski, Solomon Z. 2014. Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture. PLoS ONE 9(6): e99699.
Reese, Gordon C.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Flather, Curtis H. 2014. Performance of species richness estimators across assemblage types and survey parameters. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 23: 585-594.
Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Young, Jesse; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Butler, Edward; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Intermountain Region, 1911-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 28 p.
Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Young, Jesse; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Butler, Edward; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Northern Region, 1906-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 27 p.
Thompson, Matthew P. 2014. Social, institutional, and psychological factors affecting wildfire incident decision making. Society and Natural Resources. 27(6): 636-644.
Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Young, Jesse; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Butler, Edward; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Pacific Southwest Region, 1909-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 27 p.
Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Young, Jesse; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Butler, Edward; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service Rocky Mountain Region, 1906-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 27 p.
Stockmann, Keith; Anderson, Nathaniel; Young, Jesse; Skog, Ken; Healey, Sean; Loeffler, Dan; Butler, Edward; Jones, J. Greg; Morrison, James. 2014. Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from United States Forest Service's Sierra Nevada Bio-Regional Assessment Area of the Pacific Southwest Region, 1909-2012. Unpublished report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory. 28 p.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Stonesifer, Crystal S.; Seli, Robert C.; Hovorka, Marlena. 2013. Developing standardized strategic response categories for fire management units. Fire Management Today. 73(1): 18-24.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gebert, Krista M.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2013. Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs volume. Fire Management Today. 73(2): 5-10.
Tricker, James; Landres, Peter; Chenoweth, Jennifer; Hoffman, Roger; Ruth, Scott. 2013. Mapping wilderness character in Olympic National Park. Final Report. Missoula, MT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute. 69 p.
Tricker, James; Landres, Peter; Fauth, Gregg; Hardwick, Paul; Eddy, Alex. 2014. Mapping wilderness character in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks. Natural Resource Technical Report NPS/SEKI/NRTR-2014/872. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science. 82 p.
Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-Andre; Flannigan, Mike D.; Parks, Sean A.; Anderson, Kerry R.; Little, John M.; Taylor, Steve W. 2014. The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada. Global Change Biology. 20: 2518-2530.
Wear, David N.; Joyce, Linda A.; Butler, Brett J.; Johnson Gaither, Cassandra; Nowak, David J.; Stewart, Susan I. 2014. Climate change and forest values [Chapter 5]. In: Peterson, D. L.; Vose, J. M.; Patel-Weynand, T. Climate Change and United States Forests. Advances in Global Change Research 57. Dordrecht: Springer Science and Business Media. p. 93-112.
Wei, Yu; Bevers, Michael; Nguyen, Dung; Belval, Erin. 2014. A spatial stochastic programming model for timber and core area management under risk of fires. Forest Science. 60(1): 85-96.
Wood, Eric M.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Helmers, David; Culbert, Patrick D.; Keuler, Nicholas S.; Flather, Curtis H. 2014. Housing development erodes avian community structure in U.S. protected areas. Ecological Applications. 24(6): 1445-1462.

Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/13

Outputs
OUTPUTS: As wildfire suppression costs continue to impact and raise havoc with the affected agencies⿿ budgets, the need to improve our ability to forecast future expenditures continues to be of paramount importance. Work in this problem area has improved our ability to meet this need in two ways; (1) better estimation of actual wildfire costs in past years and (2) better forecasting of wildfire suppression costs for the US Forest Service and other agencies. Wildfire risk, human perceptions and management implications were the focus of a workshop held in 2003, and the resulting book containing the proceedings published in 2008. Work on climate change assessments has progressed with the most notable accomplishment being the publishing of The Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources: Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP4.4) by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Chapter 3 in this report is devoted to considerations specific to National Forests. The results of a study exploring a chance constraint estimation approach to optimizing resource management under uncertainty has been published. A report on geographic patterns of at-risk species produced to provide support for the USDA Forest Service interim update of the 2000 RPA has been published. A similar report in the same series on geographic patterns of at-risk species has also been completed. A study that characterizes incentives for wildfire management on national forest land has been completed. PARTICIPANTS: Bevers, Joyce, Flather, Mitchell and Kent

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The information contained in SAP 4.4 on climate change mitigation strategies will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions.

Publications

Donovan, Geoffrey H.; Brown, Thomas C.; Dale, Lisa 2008. Chapter 16: Incentives and wildfire management in the United States. In: Holmes, Thomas P.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen L., eds. Forestry Sciences, Vol. 79: The Economics of Forest Disturbances - Wildfires, Storms and Invasive Species. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. p. 323-340.
Abt, Karen L.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Gebert, Krista 2008. Chapter 17: Forecasting wildfire suppression expenditures for the United States Forest Service. In: Holmes, Thomas P.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen L., eds. Forestry Sciences, Vol. 79: The Economics of Forest Disturbances - Wildfires, Storms and Invasive Species. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. p. 341-360.
Joyce, Linda 2008. Forestry, ecosystems, and wildlife: The differences are in the details. In: Ozzello, Lori, ed. Citizens'' Guide to Colorado Climate Change. Denver, CO: Colorado Foundation for Water Education. p. 36-38.
Joyce, Linda A. 2008. Climate change assessments. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/assessments.
McCool, Stephen F.; Burchfield, James; Williams, Daniel R.; Carroll, Matt; Cohn, Patricia; Kumagai, Yoshitaka; Ubben, Tam 2007. Social science to improve fuels management: a synthesis of research on the impacts of wildland fires on communities. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-269. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 36 p.
Julius, Susan H.; West, Jordan M.; Blate, Geoffrey M.; Baron, Jill S.; Griffith, Brad; Joyce, Linda A.; Kareiva, Peter; Keller, Brian D.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Peterson, Charles H.; Scott, J. Michael. 2008. Executive summary. In: Julius, S.H.; West, J.M., eds. Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Science Program: p. 1-1 to 1-6
Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffry M.; Littell, Jeremy S.; McNulty, Steven G.; Millar, Constance I.; Moser, Susanne C.; Neilson, Ronald P.; O''Halloran, Kathy; Peterson, David L. 2008. National forests. In: Julius, S.H.; West, J.M., eds. Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4. Washington, DC: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Science Program: p. 3-1 to 3-127
Cohn, Patricia J.; Williams, Daniel R.; Carroll, Matthew S. 2008. Wildland-urban interface resident''s views on risk and attribution. In: Martin, Wade E.; Raish, Carol; Kent, Brian, eds. Wildfire risk: Human perceptions and management implications. Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, RFF Press. p. 23-43.
Cushman, Samuel A.; McKelvey, Kevin S.; Flather, Curtis H.; McGarigal, Kevin 2008. Do forest community types provide a sufficient basis to evaluate biological diversity?. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 6(1): 13-17.
Flather, Curtis H.; Knowles, Michael S.; McNees, Jason 2008. Geographic patterns of at-risk species: A technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service Interim Update of the 2000 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-211. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 21 p.
Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Barnett, David T.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Flather, Curtis; Kartesz, John 2008. The myth of plant species saturation. Ecology Letters. 11: 313-326.
Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Flather, Curtis; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Barnett, David T.; Kartesz, John 2008. Rejoinder to Harrison (2008): The myth of plant species saturation. Ecology Letters. 11(4): 324-326.
Grünzweig, José M.; Carmel, Yohay; Riov, Joseph; Sever, Nava; McCreary, Douglas D.; Flather, Curtis H. 2008. Growth, resource storage, and adaptation to drought in California and eastern Mediterranean oak seedlings. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 38: 331-342.
Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Abt, Karen; Gebert, Krista 2008. Suppression cost forecasts in advance of wildfire seasons. Forest Science, Vol. 54(4): 381-396
Bradford, J.B.; Birdsey, R.A.; Joyce, L.A.; Ryan, M.G. 2008. Tree age, disturbance history, and carbon stocks and fluxes in subalpine Rocky Mountain forests. Global Change Biology. 14: 2882-2897.
Bevers, M. 2007. A chance constraint estimation approach to optimizing resource management under uncertainty. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 27: 2270-2280
Martin WE, Raish C, Kent, B. (editors). 2008. Wildfire risk: human perceptions and management implications. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future.
Bevers, Michael; Kent, Brian 2007. Managing risk with chance-constrained programming. In: Martin, W.E.; Raish, C.; Kent, B., eds. Wildfire risk: human perceptions and management implications. Washington, DC: Resources for the Future: 212-225.
Washington-Allen, Robert A.; Mitchell, John E. 2008. Procedures for estimation of the livestock ecological footprint of US drylands. In: Multifunctional grasslands in a changing world, Volume I; XXI International Grassland Congress; VIII International Rangeland Congress. Beijing, China: Guangdong People''s Publishing House: 594.

Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Making land management decisions is difficult at best. Such decisions need to be based inpart on sound biophysical science. Problems society faces are complex, making it difficult to understand and predict results on the land. It is important that decisions make good economic sense; if the costs outweigh the benefits, it is unlikely they can be implemented for very long, irrespective of how sound the biological science is underlying them. But to make the challenge even more difficult, even if decisions are based on the very best biophysical science and are economically viable, they might still prove difficult to implement if they lack public understanding and support. Thus, managers need improved knowledge about the acceptability of various management practices that includes biological and social risks, feasibility and public acceptance. This work must account for differences between public and private lands. PARTICIPANTS: Mike Bevers, Linda Joyce, Curtis Flather, Nate Anderson, Michael Hand, Matthew Reeves, David Calkin, Matthew Thompson, Dan McCollum, Miranda Mockrin

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work and quantification of values at risk, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The 4 RPA climate change scenarios being applied to range, water and fish and wildlife habitat conditions will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions. The economic feasibility of removing fuels from forests will aide managers in project planning.

Publications

Bagne, K.; Ford, P.; Reeves, M. (November 2012). Grasslands. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Climate Change Resource Center. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/ccrc/topics/grasslands/index.shtml
Bar-Massada, Avi; Stewart, Susan I.; Hammer, Roger B.; Mockrin, Miranda H.; Radeloff, Volker C. 2013. Using structure locations as a basis for mapping the wildland urban interface. Journal of Environmental Management. 128: 540-547.
Beissinger, Steven R.; Flather, Curtis H.; Hayward, Gregory D.; Stephens, Philip A. 2011. No safety in numbers. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 9: 486.
Brown, Thomas C.; Foti, Romano; Ramirez, Jorge A. 2013. Projected freshwater withdrawals in the United States under a changing climate. Water Resources Research. 49: 1259-1276.
Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron; Wibbenmeyer, Matthew; Thompson, Matthew P. 2012. Estimating US federal wildland fire managers' preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives. International Journal of Wildland Fire. doi: 10.1071/WF11075.
Chung, Woodam; Anderson, Nathaniel. 2012. Spatial modeling of potential woody biomass flow. In: Roise, Joe, comp. Proceedings of the 35th Annual Meeting of the Council on Forest Engineering: Engineering New Solutions for Energy Supply and Demand; September 9-12, 2012; New Bern, NC. Morgantown, WV: Council on Forest Engineering. Online: http://web1.cnre.vt.edu/forestry/cofe/documents/2012/1426_Chung_W-COFE2012.pdf
Chung, Woodam; Venn, Tyron J.; Loeffler, Dan; Jones, Greg; Han, Han-Sup; Calkin, Dave E. 2012. Assessing the potential for log sort yards to improve financial viability of forest restoration treatments. Forest Science. 58(6): 641-651.
Cushman, Samuel A.; Landguth, Erin L.; Flather, Curtis H. 2013. Evaluating population connectivity for species of conservation concern in the American Great Plains. Biodiversity and Conservation. doi: 10.1007/s10531-013-0541-1.
Evans, G. R.; Washmgton-Allen, R. A.; Child, R. D.; Mitchell, J. E.; Bobowskl, B. R.; Loper, R. V.; Allen-Diaz, B. H.; Thompson, D. W.; Welling, G. R.; Reuwsaat, T. B. 2010. Criterion III: Maintenance of rangeland productive capacity [Chapter 4]. In: Mitchell, John E. Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Rangeland Management. Cooperative Extension Service Publication SM-56. Laramie, WY: University of Wyoming. p. 139-170.
Flather, Curtis H.; Knowles, Michael S.; Jones, Martin F.; Schilli, Carol. 2013. Wildlife population and harvest trends in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-296. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 94 p.
Haas, Jessica R.; Calkin, David E.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into Wildland Urban Interface risk assessments within the United States. Landscape and Urban Planning. 119: 44-53.
Hansen, Andrew J.; Phillips, Linda Bowers; Flather, Curtis H.; Robinson-Cox, Jim. 2011. Carrying capacity for species richness as context for conservation: A case study of North American birds. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 20: 817-831.
Holmes, Thomas P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 246-255.
Hyde, Kevin; Dickinson, Matthew B.; Bohrer, Gil; Calkin, David; Evers, Louisa; Gilbertson-Day, Julie; Nicolet, Tessa; Ryan, Kevin; Tague, Christina. 2013. Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: Status and needs. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 22: 37-50.
Joyce, Linda A.; Briske, David D.; Brown, Joel R.; Polley, H. Wayne; McCarl, Bruce A.; Bailey, Derek W. 2013. Climate change and North American rangelands: Assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Rangeland and Ecology Management. 66: 512-528.
Karl, Michael G. (Sherm); Tueller, Paul T.; Schuman, Gerald E.; Vinson, Mark R.; Fogg, James L.; Shafer, Ronald W.; Pyke, David A.; Booth, D. Terrance; Borchard, Steven J.; Ypsilantis, William G.; Barrett, Richard H., Jr. 2010. Criterion I: Soil and water conservation on rangelands [Chapter 2]. In: Mitchell, John E. Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Rangeland Management. Cooperative Extension Service Publication SM-56. Laramie, WY: University of Wyoming. p. 25-75.
Lepczyk, Christopher A.; Wunnicke, Aaron; Radeloff, Volker C.; Flather, Curtis H.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Hammer, Roger B. 2013. Using housing growth to estimate habitat change: detecting Ovenbird response in a rapidly growing New England State. Urban Ecosystems. 16: 499-510.
Maczko, Kristie A.; Tanaka, John A.; Smith, Michael; Garretson-Weibel, Cindy; Hamilton, Stanley F.; Mitchell, John E.; Fults, Gene; Stanley, Charles; Loper, Dick; Bryant, Larry D.; Brite, J. K. (Rooter), Jr. 2012. Ranch business planning and resource monitoring for rangeland sustainability. Rangelands. 34(1): 11-18.
Mitchell, John E.; Mazcko, Kristie A.; Hidinger, Lori A.; Bartlett, E. T. 2010. Introduction [Chapter 1]. In: Mitchell, John E. Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Rangeland Management. Cooperative Extension Service Publication SM-56. Laramie, WY: University of Wyoming. p. 1-21.
Mitchell, Jonn E.; Hamiliton, Stan; Lustig, Thomas; Nelson, Kenneth; Roberts, Tom; Czech, Brian. 2010. Criterion V: Legal, institutional, and economic framework for rangeland conservation and sustainable management [Chapter 6]. In: Mitchell, John E. Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Rangeland Management. Cooperative Extension Service Publication SM-56. Laramie, WY: University of Wyoming. p. 193-227.
Mockrin, Miranda H.; Aiken, Richard A.; Flather, Curtis H. 2012. Wildlife-associated recreation trends in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-293. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 34 p.
Page-Dumroese, Deborah; Anderson, Nathaniel. 2011. Biomass utilization, forest restoration, and soil productivity associated with bioenergy harvesting and biochar application: Field and laboratory strategies for the U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Research Strategy White Paper. Flagstaff, AZ: U.S. Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Forest and Woodland Ecosystems Science Program. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/forest-woodland/docs/biochar-biomass-strategic-f ramework.pdf
Reese, Gordon C.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Flather, Curtis H. 2013. Program SimAssem: software for simulating species assemblages and estimating species richness. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 4: 891-896.
Reeves, Matthew Clark; Mitchell, John E. 2012. A synoptic review of U.S. rangelands: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-288. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 128 p.
Scott, Joe H.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E. 2013. A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-315. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 83 p.
Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics. PLOS One. 8(5): e63297.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Calkin, David E.; Finney, Mark A.; Gebert, Krista M.; Hand, Michael S. 2013. A risk-based approach to wildland fire budgetary planning. Forest Science 59(1): 63-77.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Frank R., III; McNulty, Steven; Fisher, Larry A.; Runge, Michael C.; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica. 2013. The science of decisionmaking: Applications for sustainable forest and grassland management in the National Forest System. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-GTR-88. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 54 p.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Hand, Michael S.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Nalle, Darek J. 2013. Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation. In: González-Cabán, Armando, tech. coord. Proceedings of the fourth international symposium on fire economics, planning, and policy: climate change and wildfires. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-245 (English). Albany, CA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station: 66-80.
Houtman, Rachel M.; Montgomery, Claire A.; Gagnon, Aaron R.; Calkin, David E.; Dietterich, Thomas G.; McGregor, Sean; Crowley, Mark. 2013. Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs. International Journal of Wildland Fire. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF12157
Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E. 2013. Integrated wildfire risk assessment: Framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management. 9(2): 329-342.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Kaiden, Jeffrey D.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W. 2013. A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire. Natural Hazards. 67(2): 627-644.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Scott, Joe; Langowski, Paul G.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Haas, Jessica R.; Bowne, Elise M. 2013. Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on National Forest System lands in the Rocky Mountain Region of the United States. Water. 5(3): 945-971.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Haas, Jessica R.; Gebert, Krista M.; Stockmann, Keith D. 2013. Quantifying the potential impacts of fuel treatments on wildfire suppression costs. Journal of Forestry. 111(1): 49-58.
Wear, David N.; Joyce, Linda A. 2012. Climate change, human communities, and forests in rural, urban, and wildland-urban interface environments. In: Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; Patel-Weynand, Toral, eds. Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-870. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station: 97-123. Chapter 3.
Wear, David N.; Joyce, Linda A.; Butler, Brett J.; Johnson, Cassandra Y.; Nowak, David J.; Stewart, Susan I. In press. Climate change and forest values. In: D.L. Peterson et al. (eds.), Climate Change and United States Forests, Advances in Global Change Research 57, DOI 10.1007/978-94-007-7515-2__5
Wear, David N.; Joyce, Linda A.; Butler, Brett J.; Johnson, Cassandra Y.; Stewart, Susan I.; Nowak, David J. 2012. Climate change, human communities and forests in rural, urban, and wildland-urban interface environments. In: Vose, J., D.L. Peterson, and T. Patel-Weynand. Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870. p. 97-123.
Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J.; Hand, Michael S.; Calkin, David E.; Venn, Tyron J.; Thompson, Matthew P. 2013. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers. Risk Analysis. 33(6): 1021-1037.
Wickham, James D.; Flather, Curtis H. 2013. Integrating biodiversity and drinking water protection goals through geographic analysis. Diversity and Distributions. 19: 1198-1207.

Progress 10/01/09 to 09/30/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Making land management decisions is difficult at best. Such decisions need to be based in part on sound biophysical science. Problems society faces are complex, making it difficult to understand and predict results on the land. It is important that decisions make good economic sense; if the costs outweigh the benefits, it is unlikely they can be implemented for very long, irrespective of how sound the biological science is underlying them. But to make the challenge even more difficult, even if decisions are based on the very best biophysical science and are economically viable, they might still prove difficult to implement if they lack public understanding and support. Thus, managers need improved knowledge about the acceptability of various management practices that includes biological and social risks, feasibility and public acceptance. This work must account for differences between public and private lands. PARTICIPANTS: Mike Bevers, Linda Joyce, Curtis Flather, Brian Kent, Carol Miller, Matthew Reeves, David Calkin, Matthew Thompson, Greg Jones, Dan McCollum, David Cole, Miranda Mockrin, Peter Landres

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work and quantification of values at risk, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The 4 RPA climate change scenarios being applied to range, water and fish and wildlife habitat conditions will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions.

Publications

Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T; McKenney, Daniel W.; Siltanen, R. Martin; Papadopol, Pia; Lawrence, Kevin. 2010. Climate scenarios for the conterminous United States at the 5 arc minute grid spatial scale using SRES scenarios A1B and A2 and PRISM climatology. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/data_archive/dataaccess/US_ClimateScenarios_grid_A1B_A2_ PRISM.shtml
Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T; McKenney, Daniel W.; Siltanen, R. Martin; Papadopol, Pia; Lawrence, Kevin. 2010. Climate scenarios for the conterminous United States at the county spatial scale using SRES scenarios A1B and A2 and PRISM climatology. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/data_archive/dataaccess/US_ClimateScenarios_county_A1B_A 2_PRISM.shtml.
Davis, Brett H.; Miller, Carol. 2010. What if we didn't suppress fire?. In: Weber, Samantha, ed. Rethinking Protected Areas in a Changing World: Proceedings of the 2009 GWS Biennial Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites; 2009 March 1-6; Portland, OR. Proc. Hancock, Michigan: The George Wright Society: 131-134.
Davis, Brett H.; Miller, Carol; Parks, Sean A. 2010. Retrospective fire modeling: Quantifying the impacts of fire suppression. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-236WWW. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 40 p.
Davis, Brett; van Wagtendonk, Jan; Beck, Jen; van Wagtendonk, Kent. 2009. Modeling fuel succession. Fire Management Today. 69(2): 18-21.
Stein, Susan M.; McRoberts, Ronald E.; Nelson, Mark D.; Mahal, Lisa; Flather, Curtis H.; Alig, Ralph J.; Comas, Sara. 2010. Private forest habitat for at-risk species: Where is it and where might it be changing? Journal of Forestry. 108(2): 61-70.
Stephenson, Nathan L.; Millar, Constance I.; Cole, David N. 2010. Shifting environmental foundations: The unprecedented and unpredictable future [chapter 4]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 50-66.
Tarnay, Lee W.; Davis, Brett H.; van Wagtendonk, Jan. 2010. Modeled and actual impacts of fire management on carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions in Yosemite National Park. In: Weber, Samantha, ed. Rethinking Protected Areas in a Changing World: Proceedings of the 2009 GWS Biennial Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites; 2009 March 1-6; Portland, OR. Proc. Hancock, Michigan: The George Wright Society: 93-100.
Thompson, Matthew P.; Sessions, John. 2010. Exploring environmental and economic trade-offs associated with aggregate recycling from decommissioned forest roads. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. doi: 10.1007/s10666-010-9220-8.
Thompson, Matthew; Sessions, John; Boston, Kevin; Skaugset, Arne; Tomberlin, David. 2010. Forest road erosion control using multiobjective optimization. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. doi: 10.1111 j.1752-1688.2010.00443.x
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2010. Effects of climate change on Forest Service strategic goals. Short Subjects from SAP 4.4 National Forests, No. 2. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 2 p.
Albright, Thomas P.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Clayton, Murray K.; Flather, Curtis H.; Culbert, Patrick D.; Wardlow, Brian D.; Radeloff, Volker C. 2010. Effects of drought on avian community structure. Global Change Biology. 16: 2158-2170.
Aplet, Gregory H.; Cole, David N. 2010. The trouble with naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness goals [chapter 2]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 12-29.
Bigelow, Seth W.; Parks, Sean A. 2010. Predicting altered connectivity of patchy forests under group selection silviculture. Landscape Ecology. 25(3): 435-447.
Brown, Thomas C; Froemke, Pamela. 2010. Risk of impaired condition of watersheds containing National Forest lands. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-251. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 57 p.
Cole, D.; Stephenson, N.L.; Millar, C.I. 2010. Responding to climate change: A toolbox of management strategies. Chapter 11 in: Cole, D.N.; Yung, L., eds. 2010. Beyond Naturalness: Rethinking Park and Wilderness Stewardship in an Era of Rapid Change. Island Press: p. 179-196
Cole, David N.; Hall, Troy E. 2010. Privacy functions and wilderness recreation: Use density and length of stay effects on experience. Ecopsychology. 2(2): 67-75.
Cole, David N.; Higgs, Eric S.; White, Peter S. 2010. Historical fidelity: Maintaining legacy and connection to heritage [chapter 8]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 125-141.
Cole, David N.; Millar, Constance I.; Stephenson, Nathan L. 2010. Responding to climate change: A toolbox of management strategies [chapter 11]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 179-196.
Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie. 2010. Park and wilderness stewardship: The dilemma of management intervention [chapter 1]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 1-11.
Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie. eds. 2010. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. 287 p.
Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A. 2010. Historical climate data (1940-2006) for the conterminous United States at the 5 arc minute grid spatial scale based on PRISM climatology. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/data_archive/dataaccess/US_HistClimateScenarios_grid_PRI SM.shtml
Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A. 2010. Historical climate data (1940-2006) for the conterminous United States at the county spatial scale based on PRISM climatology. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/data_archive/dataaccess/US_HistClimateScenarios_county_P RISM.shtml
Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T; McKenney, Daniel W. 2010. Climate scenarios for the conterminous United States at the 5 arc minute grid spatial scale using SRES scenarios B2 and PRISM climatology. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/data_archive/dataaccess/US_ClimateScenarios_grid_B2_PRIS M.shtml
Coulson, David P.; Joyce, Linda A.; Price, David T; McKenney, Daniel W. 2010. Climate scenarios for the conterminous United States at the county spatial scale using SRES scenarios B2 and PRISM climatology. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Online: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/data_archive/dataaccess/US_ClimateScenarios_county_B2_PR ISM.shtml
Grenon, Jill; Svalberg, Terry; Porwoll, Ted; Story, Mark. 2010. Lake and bulk sampling chemistry, NADP, and IMPROVE air quality data analysis on the Bridger-Teton National Forest (USFS Region 4). Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-248WWW. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 44 p.
Hall, Troy E.; Seekamp, Erin; Cole, David. 2010. Do recreation motivations and wilderness involvement relate to support for wilderness management? A segmentation analysis. Leisure Science. 32: 109-124.
Hobbs, R.J.; Cole, D.N.; Yung, L.; Zavaleta, E.S.; Aplet, G.H.; Chapin, F.S.; Landres, P.B.; Parsons, D.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; White, P.S.; Graber, D.M.; Higgs, E.S.; Millar, C.I.; Randall, J.M.; Tonnessen, K.A.; Woodley, S. 2009. Guiding concepts for protected area stewardship in an era of global environmental change. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. E-View preprint, Dec 2, 2009.
Hobbs, Richard J.; Zavaleta, Erike S.; Cole, David N.; White, Peter S. 2010. Evolving ecological understandings: The implications of ecosystem dynamics [chapter 3]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 34-49.
Joyce, Linda. 2010. 2009 Climate Change Research Strategy: Rocky Mountain Research Station. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 21 p.
Landres, Peter. 2009. A new tool to evaluate proposals for climate change research in U.S. wilderness. International Journal of Wilderness. 15(3): 29-30.
Martin, Wade E.; Martin, Ingrid M.; Kent, Brian. 2009. The role of risk perceptions in the risk mitigation process: The case of wildfire in high risk communities. Journal of Environmental Management. 91: 489-498.
Miller, Carol. 2010. Living with fire: Fire ecology and policy for the twenty-first century [book review]. The Quarterly Review of Biology. 84: 408.
Monz, Christopher A.; Cole, David N.; Leung, Yu-Fai; Marion, Jeffrey L. 2009. Sustaining visitor use in protected areas: Future opportunities in recreation ecology research based on the USA experience. Environmental Management. DOI 10.1007/s00267-009-9406-5.
Parisien, Marc-Andre; Miller, Carol; Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark A. 2010. Use of artificial landscapes to isolate controls on burn probability. Landscape Ecology. 25: 79-94.
Parsons, David J. 2010. Reflections on WILD9. International Journal of Wilderness. 16(1): 32, 48.
Periman, Richard; Dawe, Christine; Rickel, Bryce; Unthank, Amy; Green, Champe; Jemison, Roy; Nelson, Kurt; Kent, Brian. 2009. Southwestern Region climate change trends and forest planning: A guide for addressing climate change in forest plan revision on southwestern National Forests and Grasslands. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southwestern Region. 46 p.
Radeloff, Volker. C.; Stewart, Susan I.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Gimmi, Urs; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Flather, Curtis H.; Hammer, Roger. B.; Helmers, David P. 2010. Housing growth in and near United States protected areas limits their conservation value. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 107(2): 940-945.
Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Albright, Thomas P.; Culbert, Patrick D.; Clayton, Murray K.; Flather, Curtis H.; Huang, Chengquan; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Radeloff, Volker C. 2010. Avifauna response to hurricanes: Regional changes in community similarity. Global Change Biology. 16: 905-917.
Shelby, Lori B.; Shields, Deborah J.; Miller, Michael D.; Lybecker, Donna L.; Kent, Brian M.; Bashovska, Vesna. 2009. The Northeastern area's objectives and beliefs responses regarding forests and grasslands: 2004 survey results. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-221. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 77 p.
Shifley, S. R.; Flather, C. H.; Smith, W. B.; Riitters, K. H.; Sieg, C. H. 2010. Status and progress in large-scale assessment of biological diversity in the United States. The International Forestry Review. 12(5): 91.
Solomon, Allen; Birdsey, Richard A.; Joyce, Linda A. 2010. Forest Service Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2019 Implementation Plan. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 67 p.
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2010. Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests. Short Subjects from SAP 4.4 National Forests, No. 3. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 2 p.
Vavra, Martin; Mitchell, John. 2010. Experimental forests and ranges as a network for for long-term data. In: Meeting current and future conservation challenges through the synthesis of long-term silviculture and range management research. WO-GTR-84. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. p. 15-23.
Washington-Allen, Robert; Fitzgerald, Jody; Grounds, Stephanie; Jihadi, Faisar; Kretzschmar, John; Ramirez, Kathryn; Mitchell, John. 2009. Estimation of livestock appropriation of net primary productivity in Texas Drylands. In: 24th Annual Landscape Ecology Symposium: Landscape Patterns and Ecosystem Processes; Snowbird, Utah; April 12-16, 2009. International Association of Landscape Ecology. p.159.
White, Peter S.; Yung, Laurie; Cole, David N.; Hobbs, Richard J. 2010. Conservation at large scales: Systems of protected areas and protected areas in the matrix [chapter 12]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 197-215.
Whittaker, Doug; Shelby, Bo; Manning, Robert; Cole, David; Haas, Glenn. 2010. Capacity reconsidered: Finding consensus and clarifying differences. Marienville, PA: National Association of Recreation Resource Planners. 18 p.
Yung, Laurie; Cole, David N.; Graber, David M.; Parsons, David J.; Tonnessen, Kathy A. 2010. Changing policies and practices: The challenge of managing for naturalness [chapter 5]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 67-87.
Yung, Laurie; Cole, David N.; Hobbs, Richard J. 2010. A path forward: Conserving protected areas in the context of global environmental change [chapter 15]. In: Cole, David N.; Yung, Laurie, eds. Beyond naturalness: Rethinking park and wilderness stewardship in an era of rapid change. Washington DC: Island Press. p. 252-269.
van Wagtendonk, Kent; Davis, Brett H. 2010. Revisiting spatial patterns of lightning strikes and fires in Yosemite National Park. In: Weber, Samantha, ed. Rethinking Protected Areas in a Changing World: Proceedings of the 2009 GWS Biennial Conference on Parks, Protected Areas, and Cultural Sites; 2009 March 1-6; Portland, OR. Proc. Hancock, Michigan: The George Wright Society: 125-130.

Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: As wildfire suppression costs continue to impact and raise havoc with the affected agencies⿿ budgets, the need to improve our ability to forecast future expenditures continues to be of paramount importance. Work in this problem area has improved our ability to meet this need in two ways; (1) better estimation of actual wildfire costs in past years and (2) better forecasting of wildfire suppression costs for the US Forest Service and other agencies. Wildfire risk, human perceptions and management implications were the focus of a workshop held in 2003, and the resulting book containing the proceedings published in 2008. Work on climate change assessments has progressed with the most notable accomplishment being the publishing of The Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources: Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP4.4) by the US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Chapter 3 in this report is devoted to considerations specific to National Forests. The results of a study exploring a chance constraint estimation approach to optimizing resource management under uncertainty has been published. A report on geographic patterns of at-risk species produced to provide support for the USDA Forest Service interim update of the 2000 RPA has been published. A similar report in the same series on geographic patterns of at-risk species has also been completed. A study that characterizes incentives for wildfire management on national forest land has been completed. PARTICIPANTS: Bevers, Joyce, Flather, Reeves and Kent

Impacts
As a result of the wildfire suppression cost work, agencies will be better able to manage their fire suppression budgets through improved predictive capabilities. The information contained in SAP 4.4 on climate change mitigation strategies will provide natural resource managers with the current state of the science to help guide their management decisions.

Publications

Hierro, Jose L.; Eren, Ozkan; Khetsuriani, Liana; Diaconu, Alecu; Torok, Katalin; Montesinos, Daniel; Andonian, Krikor; Kikodze, David; Janoian, Levan; Villarreal, Diego; Estanga-Mollica, Maria; Callaway, Ragan M. 2009. Germination responses of an invasive species in native and non-native ranges. Oikos. 118: 529-538.
Holt, J.T., Christenson, D., Black, A., Fay, B., Round, K. 2009. Initial Impressions from the Northern California 2008 Lightning Siege: A report by a Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center Information Collection Team. Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center, Tucson, AZ. Available online: http://www.wildfirelessons.net/documents/Initial_Impressions_NorCal_2008_Lightni ng_Siege. pdf. 51 p. 1.39MB.
Coleman, Mark, et al. 2009. Can portable pyrolysis units make bimass utilization affordable while using bio-char to enhance soil productivity and sequester carbon? In: Proceedings of the 2009 National Silvicultural Workshop, June 15-18, Boise, ID. 11 pp.
Dickson, Brett G.; Noon, Barry R.; Flather, Curtis H.; Jentsch, Stephanie; Block, William M. 2009. Quantifying the multi-scale response of avifauna to prescribed fire experiments in the southwest United States. Ecological Applications. 19(3): 608-621.
Flather, Curtis H.; Knowles, Michael S.; Brady, Stephen J. 2009. Population and harvest trends of big game and small game species: A technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service Interim Update of the 2000 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-219. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 34 p.
Flather, Curtis H.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Shriner, Susan A. 2009. Geographic approaches to biodiversity conservation: Implications of scale and error to landscape planning. In: Millspaugh, J.J.; Thompson, F.R., III, eds. Models for planning wildlife conservation in large landscapes. Burlington, MA: Elsevier Inc.: 85-121.
Gebert, Krista M., Calkin, David E., Finney, Mark, McHugh, Charles. 2009 Development of an "Early Warning" Model for High Cost Fires: Status Report. Report presented to USDA Forest Service, WO-State and Private Forestry. 12 p.
He, Wei-Ming; Feng, Yulong; Ridenour, Wendy M.; Thelen, Giles C.; Pollock, Jarrod L.; Diaconu, Alecu; Callaway, Ragan M. 2009. Novel weapons and invasion: Biogeographic differences in the competitive effects of Centaurea maculosa and its root exudate (±)-catechin. Oecologia. 159: 803-815.
Innes, John; Joyce, Linda A.; Kellomaki, Seppo; Louman, Bastiaan; Ogden, Aynslie; Parrotta, John; Thompson, Ian; Ayres, Matthew; Ong, Chin; Santoso, Heru; Sohngen, Brent; Wreford, Anita 2009. Management for adaptation. In: Seppala, Risto; Buck, Alexander; Katila, Pia, eds. Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A Global Assessment Report. IUFRO World Series Volume 22. Helsinki, Finland: IUFRO: 135-186.
Jones, G.; Chew, J.; Silverstein, R.; Stalling, C.; Sullivan, J.; Troutwine, J.; Weise, D.; Garwood, D. 2008. Spatial analysis of fuel treatment options for chaparral on the Angeles national forest. In Narog, M. G. (tech. coord.)p Proceedings of the 2002 fire conference: Managing fire and fuels in the remaining wildlands and open spaces of the Southwestern United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-189, Albany, CA: Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture; 237-245.
Joyce, L.; Blate, G.; McNulty, S.; Millar, C.; Moser, S.; Neilson, R.; Peterson, D. 2009. Managing for multiple resources under climate change: National forests. Special Issue on Adaptation Options for Climate-Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. Environmental Management 10.1007/s00267-009-9324-6: 1-11.
Joyce, L.A., Flather, C.H., Koopman, M.E. 2008. Analysis of potential impacts of climate change on wildlife habitats in the U.S. Final report to the National Council for Science and the Environment. Wildlife Habitat Policy Research Program. 31 October 2008. 69 p.
Loeffler, Dan; Jones, Greg; Vonessen, Nikolaus; Healey, Sean; Chung, Woodam 2009. Estimating diesel fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions from forest road construction. In: McWilliams, Will; Moisen, Gretchen; Czaplewski, Ray, comps. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Symposium 2008; October 21-23, 2008; Park City, UT. Proc. RMRS-P-56CD. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 11 p.
McCreary, D., Gruzweig, J.M., Carmel, Y, Flather, C.H. 2008. The response of native oaks from California and Israel to Drought. In: A. Merelender, D. McCreary, and K.L. Purcell, tech. eds. Proceedings of the Sixth California Oak Symposium: Today's Challelnges, Tomorrow's Opportunities. October 9-12, 2006. Rohnert Park, CA. Gen. Tech. Rep PSW-GTR-217. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station. 293-300.
Osman-Elasha, Balgis; Parrotta, John; Adger, Neil; Brockhaus, Maria; Colfer, Carol J. Pierce; Sohngen, Brent; Dafalla, Tallaat; Joyce, Linda A.; Nkem, Johnson; Robledo, Carmenza 2009. Future socio-economic impacts and vulnerabilities. In: Seppala, Risto; Buck, Alexander; Katila, Pia, eds. Adaptation of forests and people to climate change. A Global Assessment Report. IUFRO World Series Volume 22. Helsinki, Finland: IUFRO: 101-122.
Phillips, L.B., Hansen, A.J., Flather, C.H. 2008. Evaluating the species energy relationship with the newest measures of ecosystem energy: NDVI versus MODIS primary production. Remote Sensing of Environment 112: 4381-4392.
Prestemon, Jeffrey P., Gebert Krista M., Abt, Karen L. 2008. Forest Service suppression cost forecosts and simulation: Forecast for FY 2009 and out-year Budget forecasts for FY 2010 and 2011. Report presented to USDA Forest Service, WO - Fire and Aviation Managemnt 9 pp.
Prestemon, Jeffrey P., Gebert, Krista M., Abt, Karen L. 2008. Forest Service suppression cost forecosts and simulation: Forecast for FY 2009 Spring Update. Report presented to USDA Forest Service, WO - Fire and Aviation Managemnt 7 pp.
Reeves, J., Ryan, M, Rollins, M., Thompson, T. 2009. Spatial fuel data products of the LANDFIRE Project. International Journal of Wildland Fire 18: 250-267.
Solomon, A., et al. 2009. FS Strategic Global Change Research Strategy, 2009-2029. Washington, DC: USDA Forest Service. 19 p.
Hayward, G.D., Flather, C.H., Uloth, E., Safford, H., Cleaves, D. 2009. Managing fish and wildlife habitat in the face of climate change: USDA Forest Service perspective. Transactions of the North American Wildlife and Natural Resources Conference. 74: 98-109.
Abt, Karen L.; Prestemon, Jeffrey P.; Gebert, Krista M. 2009. Wildfire suppression cost forecasts from the US Forest Service. Journal of Forestry: 173-179
Blate, G.M.; Joyce, L.A.; Littell, J.S.; McNulty, S.G.; Millar, C.I.; Moser, S.C.; Neilson, R.P.; O''Halloran, K; Peterson, D.L. 2009. Adapting to climate change in United States national forests. Unasylva, Vol. 60: 57-62
Brown, Thomas C.; Hobbins, Michael T.; Ramirez, Jorge A. 2008. Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 44(6): 1474-1487.
Canton-Thompson, Janie, Thompson, Brooke, Gebert, Krista, Jones, Greg. 2009 Assessment of the Chief's Principal Representative (CPR) Program, Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), and Other Selected Wildland Fire Management Efficiencies, Final Report (Revised). Report submitted to Washington Office Fire and Aviaation Management. February. 32 pp.
Canton-Thompson, Janie. 2009. An Interim Report on the Interplay of Wildland Fire suppression Costs and Decision-making. Report submitted to Joint Fire Science Project Committee. Project Number: 08-1-4-01. July. 22 pp.
Canton-Tompson, Janie; Gebert, Krista M.;Thompson, Brooke; Jones, Greg; Calkin, David; Donovan, Geoff. 2008. External human factors in incident management team decisionmaking and their effect on large fire suppression expenditures. Journal of Forestry. 106(8): 416-424.
Champ, Patricia; Donovan, Geoffrey; Barth, Christopher. 2008. Wildfire risk and home purchase decisions. Rural connections. 2(3): 5-6.
Chung, W., Jones, G., Sullivan, J. Aracena, P. 2009. Developing a decision support system to optimize spatial and temporal fuel treatments at a landscape scale. In: Proceedings of the 2009 Council on Forest Engineeing, June 15-18, Kings Beach, CA. 6 pp.