Economic Analysis of Agricultural and Biofuel Markets and Policies to Inform Public Policy

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL AND BIOFUEL MARKETS AND POLICIES TO INFORM PUBLIC POLICY

Sponsoring Institution

National Institute of Food and Agriculture

Project Status

COMPLETE

Funding Source

HATCH

Reporting Frequency

Annual

Accession No.

0233869

Grant No.

(N/A)

Cumulative Award Amt.

(N/A)

Proposal No.

(N/A)

Multistate No.

(N/A)

Project Start Date

Feb 1, 2013

Project End Date

Jan 31, 2018

Grant Year

(N/A)

Program Code

[(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI
(N/A)
COLUMBIA,MO 65211

Performing Department
Social Sciences

Non Technical Summary
This project supports policy analysis to improve public policy and private sector decision making on issues related to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. The research focuses on delivering facts and analysis, not recommendations, to decision makers in Congress, the Administration, and the farm and food sectors to improve the store of public knowledge about important policy and market issues. The work is used throughout the United States and internationally. Over the last 30 years, researchers with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU) have developed expertise and models that facilitate analysis of important issues related to agricultural markets and policies. A set of interconnected economic models is used to estimate the supply, demand and prices of major agricultural and biofuel commodities, as well as other important indicators such as consumer food expenditures, government budgetary costs and farm income. Analysis is conducted using "what if" scenarios. An initial set of projections are made assuming historical patterns for key driving forces extend into the future and that current policy continues. Alternative possibilities are explored by changing some of these assumptions, whether an existing policy lever, a broad package of agricultural or biofuel policies, or a weather or energy market shock. Results estimate the impact of each alternative possibility on quantities and prices in the market, producer income and consumer expenses, and government costs. The project results in outputs that can be used for planning and evaluation by anyone involved in agriculture or the biofuels industry. The greater knowledge of the sector and the potential impacts of policy change lead to better planning and decision making.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
601	6110	3010	25%
603	6199	3010	25%
609	6199	3010	25%
610	6110	3010	25%

Knowledge Area
601 - Economics of Agricultural Production and Farm Management; 603 - Market Economics; 609 - Economic Theory and Methods; 610 - Domestic Policy Analysis;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof; 6199 - Economy, general/other;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

Goals / Objectives
The goal of the project is to conduct economic analysis of agricultural and biofuel markets and policies to inform public policy. Each year, project investigators and collaborating researchers at the University of Missouri and other institutions will: 1) Develop baseline projections of agricultural and biofuel markets assuming a continuation of current policies. 2) Present a summary of these baseline projections to policy makers, fellow researchers and the public. 3) Interact with policy makers regularly to stay abreast of current debates and identify issues where quantitative analysis can inform the policy process. 4) Analyze the impacts of the identified policy options by estimating likely agricultural and biofuel market results under the alternative policies and comparing these results to the baseline. 5) Present relevant results to policy makers, fellow researchers and the public by means of reports, presentations and other means of dissemination. If current Congressional calendars continue to hold, baseline reports should be issued sometime around the first of March each year. When conditions warrant, an update of the baseline may be prepared, most likely sometime in the summer. Analysis of alternative scenarios may be conducted at any time it would be of value to the policy process.

Project Methods
Project investigators will develop and maintain economic models that they will use as tools to develop baseline projections and analyze the impacts of alternative policies. Over the last 30 years, researchers with the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri (FAPRI-MU) have developed expertise and models that facilitate analysis of important issues related to agricultural markets and policies (Meyers et al., 2010). A set of interconnected economic models is used to estimate the supply, demand and prices of major agricultural and biofuel commodities, as well as other important indicators such as consumer food expenditures, government budgetary costs and farm income. The multi-market partial equilibrium models reflect the requirements of economic theory and detailed representations of important features of markets and policies. Where appropriate, model parameters are estimated using econometric techniques; where that is not practical, parameters are based on the literature and analyst judgment. An extensive review process is central to the project's success. Each year, project analysts will prepare a preliminary baseline: 10 years of projections for the key variables in the agricultural and biofuel sectors under a continuation of current policies (for details of the latest baseline see FAPRI-MU, 2013). These preliminary estimates will be reviewed at an annual workshop by analysts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, other domestic and international agencies, universities and the private sector. Reviewer comments and other new information will be incorporated in a revised set of baseline projections. Recognizing the inherent uncertainty and volatility of agricultural and biofuel markets, FAPRI-MU will continue its practice of developing an annual stochastic baseline: a set of alternative projections that share a common set of policy assumptions, but that make different assumptions about important exogenous variables such as the weather, energy market developments and other factors that contribute to annual variation in commodity supply and demand. In 2013, the stochastic model included approximately 2000 endogenous variables; the size of the model may change depending on the nature of the issues investigated. Project investigators will remain in close contact with policy makers such as staff of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees to remain aware of important policy debates and to be in a position to offer information and analysis that can inform those debates. To be relevant to the policy process, some analysis may need to be conducted quickly with little time for review and with truncated reporting of results; in other cases, there may be more time for proper review and more complete reporting. In addition to Washington policy makers, investigators will share results with broader audiences by means of formal reports, presentations at academic and industry conferences, and the use of multiple media outlets. Evaluation of the output of the project comes from feedback from users, quantification of website visits and downloads, publication in peer-reviewed journals and citations.

Progress 02/01/13 to 01/31/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Our work serves as an input into decision making in Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. We maintain our standing as a key source of objective economic analysis relating to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. Changes/Problems:We have not identified any major problems or delays that might have a significant impact on expenditures at this time, cause deviations from intended goals, or lead to negative outcomes that were not expected. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project directors support the decisions of junior colleagues to pursue further education, including doctoral studies. Project directors are responsive to requests for training that build on these research activities, although these training events have a varying degree of formality, from classroom to discussions in the margins of meetings, and are typically not supported by Hatch funding. Hatch funds are used to support a formal 3-day session to train professionals from a variety of institutions, mostly in public service, and graduate students to build and use structural economic models. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our work was disseminated to Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? developed baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets, as shown in the list of publications; presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations; interacted with policy makers to stay abreast of current debates to try to identify the questions and best timing for our analysis; assessed key questions; and presented results, as shown in the list of publications and supported by press quotes of our analysis.

Publications

Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Corn Outlook. In 2018 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Soybean Outlook. In 2018 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Wheat Outlook. In 2018 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Cotton Outlook. In 2018 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Rice Outlook. In 2018 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). ARC and PLC Issues. In 2018 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deepayan Debnath, Jarrett Whistance, Wyatt Thompson, Pat Westhoff. (2017). Consequence of domestic biofuels policy on the US ethanol export demand. Presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortiums (IATRCs) 2017 Annual Meeting: Globalization Adrift, December 3-5, 2017, Washington, DC.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Peter Zimmel. (2017). 2016 Agricultural Risk Coverage County (ARC-CO) Payments (FAPRI-MU Bulletin 01-17). FAPRI, University of Missouri.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wyatt Thompson, Robert Johansson, Seth Meyer, Jarrett Whistance. (2018). The US biofuel mandate as a substitute for carbon cap-and-trade. Energy Policy, 113, 368-375. Available online (subscription required): https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517307152.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Wyatt Thompson, Deepayan Debnath, Jarrett Whistance, Mike Helmar. (2018). Sizing Up Chinas Recently Announced 10% Ethanol Mandate (FAPRI-MU Bulletin 01-18). FAPRI, University of Missouri.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2018 Citation: Jing Zhao, J. Isaac Miller, Wyatt Thompson. (2018, Forthcoming). Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors. Journal of Agricultural Economics.
Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: William H. Meyers, Thomas Johnson (Eds.). (2017). Handbook on International Food and Agricultural Policies. Washington, DC: World Scientific Press.

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience:Our work serves as an input into decision making in Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. We maintain our standing as a key source of objective economic analysis relating to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. Changes/Problems:We have not identified any major problems or delays that might have a significant impact on expenditures at this time, cause deviations from intended goals, or lead to negative outcomes that were not expected. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project directors support the decisions of junior colleagues to pursue further education, including doctoral studies. Project directors are responsive to requests for training that build on these research activities, although these training events have a varying degree of formality, from classroom to discussions in the margins of meetings, and are typically not supported by Hatch funding. Hatch funds are used to support a formal 3-day session to train professionals from a variety of institutions, mostly in public service, and graduate students to build and use structural economic models. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our work was disseminated to Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? developed baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets, as shown in the list of publications; presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations; interacted with policy makers to stay abreast of current debates to try to identify the questions and best timing for our analysis; assessed key questions; and presented results, as shown in the list of publications and supported by press quotes of our analysis.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deepayan Debnath, Jarrett Whistance, Wyatt Thompson. (2017). The Causes of Two-way U.S.Brazil Ethanol Trade and the Consequences for Greenhouse Gas Emission. Energy, Vol 141, 2045-2053.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Jarrett Whistance, Seth Meyer, Wyatt Thompson. (2017). Interactions between Californias Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the National Renewable Fuel Standard. Energy Policy, Vol 101, 447-455
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: James W. Richardson, Joe L. Outlaw, George M. Knapek, J. Marc Raulston, Brian K. Herbst, David P. Anderson, Henry L. Bryant, Steven L. Klose, Peter Zimmel. (2017). Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the January 2017 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline (AFPC Working Paper 16-1). Texas A&M University.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2016). Corn Outlook. In 2017 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2016). Soybean Outlook. In 2017 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2016). Wheat Outlook. In 2017 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2016). Cotton Outlook. In 2017 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2016). Rice Outlook. In 2017 Missouri Farm Financial Outlook. Columbia, MO: University Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Missouri
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: William Meyers. (2016). Organizer and moderator of Agricultural Trade and Policy Along the Silk Road: Roles of Multilateral and Regional Agreements IATRC, Scottsdale, Dec 11-13, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deepayan Debnath, Jarrett Whistance, Patrick Westhoff, Julian Binfield. (2017). International Biofuels Baseline Update (FAPRI-MU Report #04-17). Columbia, MO: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff, Scott Gerlt, Jarrett Whistance, Julian Binfield, Deepayan Debnath, Sera Chiuchiarelli, Kateryna Schroeder, Hoa Hoang. (2017). Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets (FAPRI-MU Report #03-17). Columbia, MO: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deepayan Debnath, Suresh Chandra Babu, Parijat Ghosh, Michael Helmer (2017). Impact of Indias National Food Security Act on domestic and international rice markets (IFPRI Discussion Paper 01635). IFPRI.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). The State of the Farm Economy: Some Big-Picture Considerations. Testimony at a hearing of the Committee on Agriculture, U.S. House of Representatives February 15, Washington, DC.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Tracy Davids, Ferdi Meyer, Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Impact of Trade Controls on Price Transmission between Southern African Maize Markets. Agrekon, 556(3), 223-232.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Byung Min Soon, Wyatt Thompson. (2017). Testing for Persistent Japanese Beef Trade Impacts from BSE Using a Time-Varying Armington Model with Fourier-Series Approximation. Agribusiness: An International Journal.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: James W. Richardson, Joe L. Outlaw, George M. Knapek, J. Marc Raulston, Brian K. Herbst, David P. Anderson, Henry L. Bryant, Steven L. Klose, Peter Zimmel. (2016). Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the December 2016 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline (AFPC Working Paper 16-4). Texas A&M University.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: James W. Richardson, Joe L. Outlaw, George M. Knapek, J. Marc Raulston, Brian K. Herbst, David P. Anderson, Henry L. Bryant, Steven L. Klose, Peter Zimmel. (2016). Representative Farms Economic Outlook for the August 2016 FAPRI/AFPC Baseline (AFPC Working Paper 16-3). Texas A&M University.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Patrick Westhoff. (2017). Global Issues in Agricultural Markets and Food Security. International Experience in Food Security and Food Policy Education (Book of abstracts edited by Sergey Kiselev, Elena Belova and Maria Zhorova), pp. 8-10, Lomonosov Moscow State University.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff, Scott Gerlt, Jarrett Whistance, Julian Binfield, Sera Chiuchiarelli, Deepayan Debnath, Hoa Hoang, Kateryna Schroeder, Wyatt Thompson. (2017). 2017 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #01-17). Columbia, MO: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deepayan Debnath, Jarrett Whistance, Patrick Westhoff, Julian Binfield. (2017). 2017 International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book (FAPRI-MU Report #02-17). Columbia, MO: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Patrick Westhoff, Wyatt Thompson. (2017). Four Indicators that Explain World Grain and Oilseed Market. Agribusiness: An International Journal, Vol 33 No. 2.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Deepayan Debnath, Jarrett Whistance, Wyatt Thompson, Julian Binfield. (2017). Complement or Substitute: Ethanols Uncertain Relationship with Gasoline Under Alternative Petroleum Price and Policy Scenarios. Applied Energy, Vol 191, 385-397

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Our work serves as an input into decision making in Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. We maintain our standing as a key source of objective economic analysis relating to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. Changes/Problems:We have not identified any major problems or delays that might have a significant impact on expenditures at this time, cause deviations from intended goals, or lead to negative outcomes that were not expected. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project directors support the decisions of junior colleagues to pursue further education, including doctoral studies. Project directors are responsive to requests for training that build on these research activities, although these training events have a varying degree of formality, from classroom to discussions in the margins of meetings, and are typically not supported by Hatch funding. Hatch funds are used to support a formal 3-day session to train professionals from a variety of institutions, mostly in public service, and graduate students to build and use structural economic models. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our work was disseminated to Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? developed baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets, as shown in the list of publications; presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations; interacted with policy makers to stay abreast of current debates to try to identify the questions and best timing for our analysis; assessed key questions; and presented results, as shown in the list of publications and supported by press quotes of our analysis.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Laajimi, A., Schroeder, K.G., Meyers, W.H., & Binfield, J. (2016, February). The Tunisia Wheat Market in the Context of World Price Volatility: A Stochastic Partial Equilibrium Approach. Journal of Food Products Marketing.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Debnath, D., W. Thompson, M. Helmar, & T. Orman. "Effect of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) on Cotton Markets of Turkey and the World." Featured Article. Journal of Cotton Science (March 2016), 20, 46-55.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Whistance, J., D. Ripplinger, and W. Thompson. 2016. Biofuel-related price transmission using renewable identification number prices to signal mandate regime. Energy Economics (55):19-29. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.12.026.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hoang, H., & W.H. Meyers. (2015). Price stabilization and impacts of trade liberalization on Southeast Asian rice market. Food Policy, 57, 26-39. October.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W. Co-Editor. (2015). Handbook of International Food and Agricultural Policies (four volume reference set). World Scientific.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schroeder, K., & Meyers, W.H. 2016. "Credit and Finance Issues in the Eurasian Wheat Belt." In S. Gomez y Paloma, S. Mary, S. Langrell, & P. Ciaian (Eds.), The Role of the Eurasian Wheat Belt to Regional and Global Food Security. September 2016.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schroeder, K.G. & Meyers, W.H. (2016). The Status and Challenges of Food Security in Europe and Central Asia. In A. Schmitz, P.L. Kennedy, & T.G. Schmitz (Eds.), Food Security in a Food Abundant World (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Volume 16). Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 85-103.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W.H., & Kalaitzandonakes, N. (2015). World Population, Food Growth, and Food Security Challenges. In A. Schmitz , P.L. Kennedy, & T.G. Schmitz (Eds.), Food Security in an Uncertain World (Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Volume 15), Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp. 161-177.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Looking Toward 2018: Agricultural Policy with Reduced Federal Spending." Presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association Conference. San Antonio, Texas. Feb 6-9, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Whistance, J. "Biofuel Outlook." 3rd Annual Womack Missouri Agricultural Outlook Conference. Columbia, Missouri. March 16, 2016
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W. Analysis of the Impacts of EU-Russian Trade Disruptions on the EU and Neighborhood Countries (session organizer). International Agriculture Trade Research Consortium, Clearwater, Florida. Dec 13-15, 2015.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W. "Outlook for World Agricultural Markets: Projections and Uncertainties." Presented at the International Scientific Forum. October 27, 2015. Sofia, Bulgaria.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, W.. Workshop on EU agricultural commodity outlook projections and methods. Brussels, Belgium. October 20-27, 2015.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Farm Income and Crop Net Revenues." Presentation at the farm bill/crop insurance symposium sponsored by AAEA. Louisville, KY. October 5-7, 2015.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J. "U.S. Biomass-based Diesel Market Outlook." Presented at National Advanced Biofuel Conference and Expo. Omaha, NE. October 28, 2015.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Debnath, D., & Westhoff, P. "Consequences of global biofuel policies on agricultural commodity/ feedstock markets." Selected paper presented at the 24th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, Netherlands. June 6-9, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The objective(s) of partial stochastic analysis: five ways to use the work." World Outlook Conference, Amsterdam, Netherlands, June 9, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Whistance, J. Bi-annual NREL Bioenergy Modeling Workshop. Golden, CO. June 28-30, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Zimmel, P. Present at National Farm Business Management Conference. Sioux Falls, SD, June 11-16, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Production effects of crop insurance and WTO considerations." National Crop Insurance Services meeting, Overland Park, KS, May 4, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Zimmel P., Westhoff, P., & Gerlt, S. AAEA Distinguished Extension/Outreach Program Award for the Farm Policy Decision Aid (shared with Texas A&M and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) at AAEA Annual Meeting, Boston MA, July 31-August 2, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Update on Agricultural Markets and Policy." Conference for Agricultural Instructors of Adults, Columbia, MO, September 16, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The Outlook: Crops, Farm Income and Farm Policy." Agribusiness and Policy Symposium, Columbia, MO, September 7, 2016.Tanzania, Columbia, MO, September 13, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "FAPRI, Models and Using Models to Evaluate Policies." Cochran group from Nigeria, Kenya.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Farm Bill: Context, Content and Consequences." Remarks at symposium at Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, Boston MA, July 31-August 2, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Debnath, D., Whistance, J., & Thompson, W. "The Causes of Two-Way U.S.-Brazil Ethanol Trade and the Consequences for Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Selected paper presented at 2016 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, Boston MA, July 31-August 2, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Soon, B., & Thompson, W. "Measuring Non-Tariff Barriers by Combining Cointegration Tests and Simulation Models with an Application to Russian Chicken Imports." Paper presented at Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, Boston MA, July 31-August 2, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Soon, B., & Thompson, W. "Estimating Import Demand Functions in Major Beef Importing Countries by Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model." Paper presented at Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting, Boston MA, July 31-August 2, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W., & Schroeder, K. "Commodity Markets and Trade to 2025: What Is Driving These Changes?" Paper presented on September 21, 2016 at the 155th EAAE Seminar, Kyiv, Ukraine.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W. "Global Trends in Agriculture and Rural Development: a European and Eurasian Perspective." Keynote presentation, Agrarian Perspectives XXV Conference, Czech University of Life Sciences. 14-15 September 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W.H., & Schroeder, K.G. "Commodity Markets and Policies: What is Driving these Changes?" VI International Scientific Agricultural Symposium AgroSym 2015, Banjaluka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, March 1-4, 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Schroeder, K.G., Meyers, W.H., & Sedik, D. "Trade and Food Security in the Caucasus and Central Asia Region: Prospects and Policy Challenges." IAAE Inter-Conference Symposium. Almaty, Kazakhstan, 4 April 2016.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W.H. "Global Trends in Agriculture and Rural Development: A European and Eurasian perspective." Agrarian Perspectives XXV, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, 14-15 September 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P., Gerlt, S., Whistance, J.L., Binfield, J., Thompson, W., Chiuchiarelli, S., Debnath, D., Hoang, H., & Schroeder, K.G. (2016, March). 2016 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book. FAPRI-MU Report #02-16. http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/FAPRI-MU-Report-02-16.pdf. Excel tables and other supporting information is available at http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/publication/2016-u-s-baseline-briefing-book/.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thompson, W., Hoang, H., & Whistance, J. 2016. Literature review of estimated market effects of U.S. corn starch ethanol. FAPRI-MU Report #01-16. http://www.fapri.missouri.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/FAPRI-Report-01-16.pdf.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P., Binfield, J., & Zimmel, P. "U.S. Baseline Outlook." Presented to staff of the U.S. House Agriculture Committee, the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, the Congressional Budget Office and USDA. Washington, DC. March 10-11, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P., & Gerlt, S. "Farm Sector Outlook." Missouri Legislative Briefing. Jefferson City, MO. February 17, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Biofuel Outlook." Monsanto meeting. St. Louis, Missouri. March 18, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "U.S. Baseline Outlook." Marshall, Minnesota. March 9, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. Farm-level model development & planning with team members from other institutions. Reno, Nevada. Jan 15-16, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. Gardner Award acceptance. Washington, DC. Feb 10, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. Interview for KMOS TV program. Warrensburg, Missouri. Jan 12, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. Present to producers meeting on outlook. Chillicothe, Missouri. Jan 14, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Whistance, J. "Biofuel Outlook." Monsanto meeting. St. Louis, Missouri. March 18, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Zimmel, P. "Market and policy outlook: In search of some good news." Present to producers meeting on outlook. Graham, Missouri. Feb 25, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Zimmel, P. "The market outlook: Now what?." Present to producers meeting on outlook. Laredo, Missouri. Feb 4, 2016
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Zimmel, P. Farm-level model development & planning with team members from other institutions. Reno, Nevada. Jan 14-18, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The market outlook and policy issues." Presentation to Senate staff, Washington, D.C. December 16, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., Westhoff, P., & Whistance, J. (2015). "U.S. and Brazil Ethanol Price and Trade Shares." FAPRI-MU Bulletin #10-15.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., Westhoff, P., & Whistance, J. (2015). "Two-way Biodiesel Trade in North America." FAPRI-MU Bulletin #11-15.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Outlook presentations to agricultural lenders, Mexico (Nov. 24), Dexter (Dec. 7), Sikeston (Dec. 7) and Owensville, MO (December 8, 2015).
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The agricultural market outlook: What hit us and whats next?" Presentation to the Kansas City Association for Business Economics. Kansas, MO. October 22, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Presented "Agricultural Economy Update" Presentation to the National Agricultural Credit Committee Meeting hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Chicago, IL. October 14, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Debnath, D., Binfield, J., Whistance, J., Westhoff, P., & Thompson, W. "International Biofuels Baseline Briefing Book." FAPRI-MU Report #03-16. April 21, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The market outlook: Just how bad is it?" Presentation to producer group, Brookfield, MO. April 5, 2016
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: FAPRI. "April 2016 U.S. Crop Price Update." FAPRI-MU Bulletin #02-16. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri-Columbia. May 2, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P., Foster, M., & Gerlt, S. "All or Nothing: 2014 ARC-CO Payment Rates." FAPRI-MU Bulletin #01-16. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri-Columbia. April 13, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Whistance, J., & Thompson, W. "Potential Impacts of the EPAs Proposed RFS Requirements for 2017." FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-16. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, University of Missouri-Columbia. May 26, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The outlook: Now what?" Presentation to producer group, New Florence, MO. April 20, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "The agricultural market outlook." Visiting group from Ecuador, Columbia, MO, April 25, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "A global look at the dairy industry." Visiting group from the country of Georgia, Columbia, MO, May 18, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Market Update." Producer group, New Florence, MO, August 29, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff, P. "Market Update: Is That a Light at the End of the Tunnel or..." Boone County Farm Bureau, Columbia, MO, July 25, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Hoang, H. Global Trade Analysis Projection (GTAP) training. Purdue University, West Lafayette IN. August 5-13, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: FAPRI staff. Market and Policy Model Training Course at USDA FAS, Washington D.C., September 15-16, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Whistance, J., & Thompson, W. 2016. "RIN Prices Still (Mis)Behaving?" FAPRI-MU Bulletin #04-16.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff et al. 2016. "Baseline Update for Agricultural Markets." FAPRI-MU Report #05-16. August 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Westhoff et al. 2016. "Agricultural Commodity Price Impacts of Federal Reserve Stress Test Scenarios." FAPRI-MU Report #04-16. August 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W.H. Organizer and Moderator, "Agricultural Trade and Policy Along the Silk Road: Roles of Multilateral and Regional Agreements." IATRC, Scottsdale, Dec 11-13, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W.H. Organizer and Moderator, "The Potential Winners and Losers from the Russian Food Import Ban: Analysis of Market Impacts." IFAMA Academic discussion track, Aarhus, DK June 19-23, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W.H. Organizer and Moderator "Labour mobility, remittances and rural development: What lessons can we learn?" Organized session, IAMO Forum, Halle, Germany June 22-24, 2016.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Meyers, W.H. Organizer and Moderator, "The Russian Food Import Ban and the Eurasian Economic Union: Analysis of Trade Impact." Track session, International Section, AAEA Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, August 1-2, 2016.

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:Our work was received as an input into decision making in Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. We maintain our standing as a key source of objective economic analysis relating to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. Changes/Problems:We have not identified any major problems or delays that might have a significant impact on expenditures at this time, cause deviations from intended goals, or lead to negative outcomes that were not expected. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Our work was disseminated to Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan on following the same methods as we've implemented in the past years.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? With regard to the our listed project goals, we developed baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets, as shown in the list of publications; presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations; interacted with policy makers to stay abreast of current debates to try to identify the questions and best timing for our analysis; assessed key questions; and Presented results, as shown in the list of publications and supported by press quotes of our analysis.

Publications

Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Binfield, J. (2014, October 19-29). Lead discussions for Bulgarian Agricultural Outlook.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration to state FSA staff, Kansas City, MO, October 6-8, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Thompson, W. (2014). Attend S-1062 regional project planning meeting, New Orleans, October 2-3.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). October 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Report #06-14.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (September 16, 2015). The Market Outlook: Any Relief in Sight? Webinar presentation for the University of Arkansas Extension.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (September 2, 2015). Attend Delta Research Center Field Day, Portageville, MO.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P., Gerlt, S., Whistance, J., Binfield, J., Debnath, D., Chiuchiarelli, S., Schroeder, K. (2015). August 2015 Baseline Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets. FAPRI-MU Report #03-15.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (July 20, 2015). The Economics of Agriculture. Presentation at the National Press Foundation workshop on Food, from Farm to Table, St. Louis, MO.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015, July 14-15). Attend the 2015 Agricultural Symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015, July 6-9). Update representative cotton farm data, Memphis, TN.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Chiuchiarelli, S. (2015, July 6-8). Attend Missouri Dairy Grazing Conference. Springfield, MO.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gerlt, S., Westhoff, P. (2015). U.S. Crop Program Fiscal Costs: Revised Estimates with Updated Participation Information. FAPRI-MU Report #02-15.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J.L., and Thompson, W. (2015). How Hard Will EPA Push the Accelerator on Biofuel Expansion? What Could it Mean for RIN Prices and Compliance Costs? FAPRI-MU Bulletin #09-15.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, W., Westhoff, P., and Binfield, J. (2015, June 7-9). Attend World Outlook Conference, Washington, DC.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). April 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Bulletin #08-15.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J.L., and Westhoff, P. (2015). Impacts of the U.S.-Mexico Antidumping and Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement. FAPRI-MU Bulletin #07-15.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). March 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Bulletin #06-15.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Binfield, J. (2015). FAPRI-MU 10-Year Outlook Released. FAPRI-MU Bulletin #05-15.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J.L., and Thompson, W. (2015). RIN Price (Mis)Behavior? FAPRI-MU #04-15.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, W. (2015). Attend S-1062 regional project planning meeting, San Juan, Puerto Rico, March 26-27.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Brookfield, MO, March 24, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015, March 9-10). Presentation to U.S. Congressional staff of U.S. Baseline projections. Washington, DC.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P., Gerlt, S., Whistance, J.L., Binfield, J., Thompson, W., Chiuchiarelli, S., and Debnath, D. (2015). 2015 U.S. Baseline Briefing Book. FAPRI-MU Report #01-15.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). February 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Bulletin #03-15.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Memphis, TN, February 26, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Kirksville, MO, February 20, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Washington, DC, February 19, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Lincoln, NE, January 14, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, San Diego, CA, January 12, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Graham & Maryville, MO, January 9, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Boonville, MO, January 8, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, St. Genevieve, MO, January 6, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Centralia, MO, January 6, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). December 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Report #08-14.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Silverton, TX, December 23, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Pella, IA, December 19, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Clear Lake, IA, December 18, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Concordia, MO, December 17, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Bethany, MO, December 11, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Omaha, NE, December 10, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Columbia, MO, December 8, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Boonville, MO, December 4, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Union, MO, December 3, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Thompson, W. (2014, December 2-3). Present an overview of long-run trends and pressures to participants at the North Central Academy, Des Moines, IA.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Dexter & Sikeston, MO, December 1, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Chillicothe, MO, November 24, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Milan & Brookfield, MO, November 21, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Carrollton, MO, November 20, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Marshall, MO, November 20, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, New Florence, MO, November 19, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Fayette, MO, November 18, 2014.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Glauber, J.W., and Westhoff, P. (2015, May). The 2014 Farm Bill and the WTO. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97(5), 1287-1297.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P., Gerlt, S. and Glauber, J.W. (2015, Quarter 3). Farm Program Elections, Budget Costs and the WTO. Choices.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., Epplin, F.M., and Stoecker, A.L. (2015, April). Switchgrass Procurement Strategies for Managing Yield Variability: Estimating the Cost-Efficient D (Downtime Cost) L (Land to Lease) Frontier. Biomass and Bioenergy, 77, 110-122.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Price Projections and Farm Bill Program Choices: Adding FAPRI-MU Projections to the Mix. Farmdoc Daily, 5(26).
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (July 26, 2015). Using Structural Models to Estimate Price Volatility Ten Years into the Future. Presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meetings session on Forecasting Price Volatility for Policy Analysis, San Francisco, CA.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hoang, H.T.K., and Meyers, W.H. (July 26, 2015). Analysis of the Structural Changes in Vietnamese Households Food Demand: 2010 to 2030. Presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meetings, San Francisco, CA.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (July 26, 2015). Farm Bill and National Impacts. Presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meetings session on Nexus of the Local Food System, Small Farm Agriculture and the New Farm Legislation, San Francisco, CA.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W.H., and Schroeder, K.G. (May 23, 2015). Price Volatility in Global Markets: Implications for Farmers and Governments. Presentation at the Conference on the Problems of Innovative Development of Agro-Industrial Complex of Belarus. Gorki, Belarus.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W.H., and Schroeder, K.G. (March 3, 2015). Making Sense of Commodity Markets: FAPRI-MU Outlook and Policy Implications. Presentation at the Fourth International Symposium and 20th Scientific Conference on Agronomists of the Republic of Srpska, Bijeljina.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D. (2015). Can Carbon Credit Reduce Switchgrass Breakeven Price? American Journal of Biomass and Bioenergy, 4(1), 10-27.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hoang, H., and Meyers, W.H. (2015, February 3). Rice Demand in Vietnam: Dietary Changes and Implications for Policy. Presentation to Southern Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting, Atlanta, GA.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Gerlt, S., and Westhoff, P. (2014). Comparison of County ARC and SCO. Presentation to Agricultural and Applied Economics Association Crop Insurance and the 2014 Farm Bill: Implementing Change in U.S. Agricultural Policy symposium, Louisville, KY, October 7-9, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (September 25, 2015). The Market Outlook: If You Cant Say Anything Good&. Presentation to the Missouri Marketing Group, Columbia, MO.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Whistance, J.L., and Thompson, W. (2014). A Critical Assessment of RIN Price Behavior and the Implications for Corn, Ethanol, and Gasoline Price Relationships. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 36(4), 623-642.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Whistance, J.L., and Thompson, W. (2014). The Role of CAFE Standards and Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Production Credits in U.S. Biofuel Markets. Energy Policy, 74, 147-157.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schroeder, K.G., and Meyers, W.H. (2015, June). Policy Issues and Prospects for Ukraine's Grain Exports. In Transition to Agricultural Market Economies: The Future of Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine (A. Schmitz & W.H. Meyers, Eds.). CAB International.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., Curtis, K., and Slocum, S. (May 2015). Expanding Direct Marketing Opportunities through Farm Shops in Western Tourism Destinations: Extension Program Design. In 2014 National Value Added Agriculture Conference and Northeast Regional What Works Conference Proceedings (peer reviewed).
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Hoang, H.T.K., and Meyers, W.H. (August 10, 2015). Food Demand in Vietnam: Structural Changes and Projections to 2030. Presentation at the International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE), Milan, Italy.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (August 9, 2015). Food Aid: Some Background Statistics and Analysis. Presentation at the International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE), Milan, Italy.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, New Florence, MO, February 12, 2015.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J.L. (July 27, 2015). U.S.-Mexico Sugar Markets and the Effects of Alternative Trade Policies. Presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) annual meetings, San Francisco, CA.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Columbia, MO, February 17, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Dumas, AR, February 13, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015, February 18-19). Update representative dairy farm data. Okeechobee, FL.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Stuttgart, AR, February 12, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Brinkley, AR, February 11, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Bonita Springs, FL, February 10, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Poplar Bluff, MO, February 9, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Manhattan, KS, February 4, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Higginsville, MO, February 4, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Lexington, MO, February 3, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). January 2015 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Bulletin #02-15.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J.L., Thompson, W., and Westhoff, P. (2015). Are RIN Prices High Enough for E85 Expansion? FAPRI-MU Bulletin #01-15.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Quincy, IL, January 30, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Montgomery City, MO, January 29, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Jefferson City, MO, January 28, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Stillwater, OK, January 28, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Jackson, MS, January 27, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Council Bluffs, IA, January 23, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Trenton, MO, January 22, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Columbia, MO, January 21, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Fayette, MO, January 20, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Edgewood, IA, January 20, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2015). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Warrenton, MO, January 19, 2015.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Sedalia, MO, November 12, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, St. Joseph & Macon, MO, November 10-11, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Salt Lake City, UT, November 11, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Sikeston, MO, November 10, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. (2014). November 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update. FAPRI-MU Report #07-14.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P., and Westhoff, P. (2014). Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, Atlanta, GA, October 27, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Zimmel, P. (2014, October 20-23). Update representative dairy farm data. Boise & Twin Falls, ID.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience:Our work was received as an input into decision making in Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups. Our online publications were downloaded frequently and also picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. We maintain our standing as a key source of objective economic analysis relating to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. Changes/Problems:We have not identified any major problems or delays that might have a significant impact on expenditures at this time, cause deviations from intended goals, or lead to negative outcomes that were not expected. This research does not use animal or human subjects. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets were disseminated in various publications. We presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We will perform many of the same tasks to accomplish the project's goals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We developed baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets, as shown in the list of publications; presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations; interacted with policy makers to stay abreast of current debates to try to identify the questions and best timing for our analysis; assessed key questions; and presented results, as shown in the list of publications and supported by press quotes of our analysis.

Publications

Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: FAPRI-MU. "U.S. Baseline Briefing Book," FAPRI-MU Report #02-14. March 2014.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, W., and S. Meyer. "Second Generation Biofuels and Food Crops: Co-Products or Competitors?" Global Food Security, 2(2), 89-96, 2013.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P. "September 2014 U.S. Crop Price Update." FAPRI-MU Report #05-14. September 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Westhoff, P. and S. Gerlt "Impacts of Selected Provisions of the House and Senate Farm Bills," FAPRI-MU Report #06-13, 2013.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Westhoff, P., S. Gerlt, J. Whistance, J. Binfield, D. Debnath, S. Chiuchiarelli, S. Brown, and D. Madison. "August 2014 Update for U.S. Agricultural Markets," FAPRI-MU Report #04-14, August 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Whistance, J., W. Thompson, and S. Meyer. "Renewable Fuel Standard Waiver Options for 2014 and Beyond," FAPRI-MU 07-13, 2013.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2014 Citation: Whistance, J., and W. Thompson. "The Role of CAFE Standards and Alternative-Fuel Vehicle Production Credits in U.S. Biofuels Markets," Energy Policy.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Whistance, J., W. Thompson, and S. Meyer. "Biomass-based Diesel Policy Options: Larger RFS Requirements and Tax Credit Extension," FAPRI-MU Report #01-14, February 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Whistance, J., and W. Thompson. "Model Documentation: US Biofuels, Corn Processing, Biomass-based Diesel, and Cellulosic Biomass," FAPRI-MU Report #03-14. June 2014.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Whistance, J., and W. Thompson. "A Critical Assessment of RIN Price Behavior and the Implications for Corn, Ethanol, and Gasoline Price Relationships," Applied Economic Policies and Perspectives.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Binfield, J. Comparison of current projections: Biofuels World Outlook Conference, Seville, Spain, May 12, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Binfield, J. Highlights of current projections: FAPRI World Outlook Conference, Seville, Spain, May 12, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., J. Binfield, and J. Whistance. "Impacts of U.S. biofuel mandate waiver on world ethanol and biodiesel market. selected paper presented at 2014 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Minneapolis MN, July 27-29, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., M. Helmar, J. Binfield, and W. Thompson. Long term consequences of changing global food consumption patterns on U.S. agricultural commodity export demand. selected paper presented at 2014 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Minneapolis MN, July 27-29, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Debnath, D., P. Westhoff, and W. Thompson. Does the absence of demand side variability in stochastic partial equilibrium modeling bias outcomes? Facts and evidence from Brazil. selected poster presented at 2014 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting, Minneapolis MN, July 27-29, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Meyers, W., and K. Schroeder. Global markets to 2020: FAPRI-MU outlook and policy implications. Selected paper, International Scientific Conference on Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development in terms of the Republic of Serbia Strategic Goals Realization within the Danube Region, Belgrade, Serbia. 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schroeder, K. and Meyers, W. 2014. Export restrictions in the Ukrainian wheat trade: a stochastic partial equilibrium approach. Selected symposium paper, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association World Forum and Symposium, Cape Town, South Africa. 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Schroeder, K., E. Puricelli, and F. Meyer. Impact of export restrictions on spatial price transmission: Cross-country comparison of Argentinean and Ukrainian wheat markets (and Zambian maize market). Selected symposium paper, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association World Forum and Symposium, Cape Town, South Africa. 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, W. Stochastic uncertainties brainstorming session: further approaches World Outlook Conference, Seville, Spain, May 12, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, W. Usefulness of market models when policies are more and more focusing on single farm policy options, the example of the CAP and the Farm Bill World Outlook Conference, Seville, Spain, May 13, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Thompson, W. Summer course on market modelling for outlook and policy analysis work World Outlook Conference, Seville, Spain, May 13, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. How the new farm bill and other policies will affect U.S. agriculture. Van Trump Ag Outlook conference. Kansas City, MO. February 21, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Agricultural markets and the new farm bill. Teays Farm Managers meeting. Bakersfield, CA. February 12, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Crop Sector Analysis of the 2014 Farm Bill at the Texas Agricultural Policy Forum. Austin, TX. April 10, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. U.S. Farm Bill (and Some Non-Farm Bill Issues) at the 21st annual Moose Jaw Conference. Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan. June 23, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. The 2014 Farm Bill: Commodity Programs and Crop Insurance at the 2015 NCIS Train-the-Trainer Fall Conference. Overland Park, KS, July 22, 2014.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. The New Farm Bill: Outlook and Options at the Midwest and Great Plains/Western Extension Summer Outlook Conference. St. Louis, MO, August 14, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Binfield, J. FAPRI Outlook and the Farm Bill Farmer meeting, Westphalia, Missouri, April 28, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Binfield, J. FAPRI, Farm Bills and CAP Reforms Presentation given to Teagasc, Athenry, Ireland May 14, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. The year(s) ahead in agricultural commodities. Bernstein Research webinar. January 28, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Agricultural market and policy outlook for 2014 and beyond. FSC Financial Producer meetings. Columbia and Macon, MO. January 8 and 9, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Presentation at the ShowMe Ag Conference. January 13, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Presentation of Outlook at Extension Meeting. New Florence, MO. January 15, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Baseline and Farm Bill presentation to NASS officials. Lake Ozark, MO. February 5, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Baseline and Farm Bill presentation to farmer group. Chillicothe, MO. February 6, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. The agricultural market and policy outlook: What lies ahead. Returning to the Farm workshop. Columbia, MO. March 1, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. The agricultural outlook under the new farm bill. Cooperative Finance Association Board meeting. Kansas City, MO. February 21, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Agricultural Act of 2014: Implications for Producers at the Emerging Issues in Agricultural Lending symposium. Columbia, MO, June 3, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Market Update and Farm Bill Choices at a producer meeting. New Florence, MO. June 16 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff P. and Zimmel, P. Collaborate with AFPC on Farm Bill Education and Tools. College Station, TX. April 14-16, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff P. and Zimmel, P. Farm Bill Tools meeting with FSA staff. Washington, D.C. June 25-26, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Whistance, J., and P. Westhoff. Present Preliminary Baseline Projections to Key Industry Professionals. St. Louis, MO. January 15, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Farm Commodity Outlook and the New Farm Bill to producers at the Boone County Bank. Hallsville, MO, August 12, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Crop Producer Choices under the New Farm Bill at Representative Hartzlers Crop Stop. Clinton, MO, August 13, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Farm Program Options for Crop Producers at an extension training meeting. Columbia, MO, August 29, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Commodity Program Decisions under the 2014 Farm Bill at the 2014 Farm Bill Education Conference. Kansas City, MO, September 3, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Farm Program Options for Crop Producers at a MASCOE meeting. Boonville, MO, September 5, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Crop Market Outlook and Program Choices under the New Farm Bill at a Farm Bill Decision Aid Training meeting. Memphis, Tennessee, September 25, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Westhoff, P. Farm Bill Decision Aids: A Brief Introduction at Senate and House staff briefings. Washington, D.C., September 29, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., and P. Westhoff. Discuss Farm Bill Tools with RMA staff in Kansas City, Kansas City, MO. July 14, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., and P. Westhoff. Meet with FSA Washington Staff to discuss Farm Bill Tools, Washington DC. July 21, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., and P. Westhoff. Farm Bill Tool Technical Evaluation Meeting, College Station, TX. August 3-5, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., and P. Westhoff. Final Farm Bill Tool Preview Meeting with FSA, Washington, DC. September 10-11, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., and P. Westhoff. FSA National Training for ARC, PLC, Base Reallocation, and Yield Update, Minneapolis, MN. September 15-18, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., P. Westhoff, and B. Nordwald. Farm Bill Extension Specialist Training, Memphis, TN. September 24-25, 2014.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Zimmel, P., P. Westhoff, and A. Womack. Farm Bill Presentation and Tool Demonstration, New Florence, MO. August 25, 2014.

Progress 02/01/13 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience:Our work was received as an input into decision making in Congress, the Executive, industry, and policy interest groups.Our online publications were downloaded frequently andalso picked up by both industry and broader press. We provided formal classroom instruction, workshops, and outreach to a variety of audiences. We maintain our standing as a key source of objective economic analysis relating to agricultural and biofuel markets and policies. Changes/Problems:We have not identified any major problems or delays that might have a significant impact on expenditures at this time, cause deviations from intended goals, or lead to negative outcomes that were not expected. This research does not use animal or human subjects. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We developed baseline projections of agricultural and biofuels markets, as shown in the list of publications; presented summaries of the baseline to various audiences, including policy makers, researcher and the public, as proven in the list of presentations; interacted with policy makers to stay abreast of current debates to try to identify the questions and best timing for our analysis; assessed key questions; and Presented results, as shown in the list of publications and supported by press quotes of our analysis.

Publications

Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt, and Jarrett Whistance. "Analysis of U.S. Biofuel Tax Credits and Selected Related Policies." Commissioned by the National Academy of Sciences for Effects of U.S. Tax Policy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions (William Nordhaus, Stephen Merrill, and Paul Beaton, Eds.). National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Westhoff, Pat, Scott Gerlt, Jarrett Whistance, Julian Binfield, and Wyatt Thompson. "U.S. Baseline Briefing Book." FAPRI-MU Report 01-13.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Whistance, Jarrett, and Wyatt Thompson. "FAPRI-MU Biofuel Baseline." FAPRI-MU Report 02-13.
Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt, Jarrett Whistance, and Pat Westhoff. "Implied RIN Prices for E85 Expansion and the Effects of a Steeper Blend Wall." FAPRI-MU Report 03-13.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Meyers, W.H and Goychuk, K. (2013) After 20 years of transition in Ukraine, will the market find a way? In: Kimhi, A. and Lerman, Z. (Eds.), Agricultural Transition in Post-Soviet Europe and Central Asia after 20 Years, Studies on the Agricultural and Food Sector in Central and Eastern Europe (pp 75-91). IAMO Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe, Halle, Germany.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Goychuk, K. and Meyers. W.H. (2013). Black Sea and World Wheat Market Price Integration Analysis. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(4).
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Meyers, W.H . Binfield, J. and Helmar M. (2013). Global markets to 2020: FAPRI-MU outlook and implications for policy. Proceedings of the conference on Agriculture and Rural Development in Bulgaria and Poland CAP 2014 to 2020. Sofia, Bulgaria, 9-12 September 2013.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Meyers , W.H., and Ziolkowska, J.R. (2013). "Biofuels and agricultural markets." In Segre, A., and Vittuari, M. (Eds.), Il libro verde dello spreco in Italia l'energia (The Green Book on Energy Waste in Italy): (chapter 1.3), Edizioni Ambiente, Milano.
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Goychuk, K. and Meyers, W.H. (2013a). Eastern European Agriculture. In: Thompson,P. and Kaplan, D. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Food and Agricultural Ethics, Springer, New York (online).
Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: G�tz, L., Goychuk, K., Glauben, T. and Meyers, W.H. (2013). The Development of the Ukrainian Farm Wheat Price Volatility: Evidence From a Dynamic Conditional GARCH Model. In Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management, St. Louis, MO.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Meyer, Seth, Julian Binfield, and Wyatt Thompson. "The Role of Biofuel Policy and Biotechnology in the Development of the Ethanol Industry in the United States." AgBioForum, 16(1), 66-78.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt, and Seth Meyer. (2013, June). "Second Generation Biofuels and Food Crops: Co-Products or Competitors?" Global Food Security, 2, 89-96.
Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Meyers. W.H. and Goychuk, K. (2013). "Implications of the Eurozone Crisis for Agriculture in the Europe and Central Asia Economies in Transition." Choices, 28(2).
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt. (2013, March 8). "Impact of Biofuels Mandates on Grain and Oilseed Markets." Presented at the Maryland Policy Conference, Annapolis, MD.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt. (2013, August 21). "Looking Ahead: Some Trends and Pressures in World Agriculture." Invited presentation at the MFA Employee Development Program. Columbia, Missouri.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Goychuk, K. and Meyers, W.H. (2013). "Short- and Long-run Relationships Between Ukrainian Barley and World Feed Grain Export Prices." Presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting, Orlando, FL.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Whistance, Jarrett, and Wyatt Thompson. (2013, March 20). "Cellulosic Biofuels in the FAPRI Baseline of 2012." Presented via internet to the Biofuels in AEO2013 Workshop at Washington, DC.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt, and Ignacio P�rez Dom�nguez. (2013, June 19). "Straining the links between biofuel policies and food insecurity in developing countries." Presented at the International Consortium on Applied Biotechnology, Ravello, Italy.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt, and Pat Westhoff. (2013, August 5). "What Would It Take to Get Real Crop Prices to Rise or Fall?" Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Washington, DC.
Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thompson, Wyatt. (2013, August 20). "US Grains Market Outlook." Presented to the Colombia Feed Grain Import Buyers Team in Columbia, Missouri