LAND USE, PUBLIC HEALTH, AND FOOD POLICY IN THE CONTEXT OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE MARKETS

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0233535
• Project Start Date: Oct 1, 2013
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2018
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
(N/A)
BERKELEY,CA 94720

Performing Department
Agricultural and Resource Economics, Berkeley

Non Technical Summary
Supply and demand in agricultural markets are determined by a complex set of factors interacting in a wide range of markets. This research focuses on several important determinants of agricultural supply and demand: land use policy, food policy, and public health. In particular, it examines the effects of policies targeting nutritional education, urban sprawl, and influenza vaccination. To estimate these effects it applies quasi-experimental methods designed to simulate true randomized experiments (the "gold standard" of empirical evidence).

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
131	6040	3010	45%
703	5010	3010	25%
723	3270	3010	30%

Knowledge Area
703 - Nutrition Education and Behavior; 723 - Hazards to Human Health and Safety; 131 - Alternative Uses of Land;

Subject Of Investigation
6040 - Real estate; 3270 - Eggs; 5010 - Food;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

nutrition

education

land use

sprawl

automobile ownership

transit

public health

vaccine production

eggs

influenza

vaccine effectiveness

Goals / Objectives
This project intends to address the following main research questions: 1. How does the analyzed comprehensive taste and food education curriculum affect food choices among students 2. How does car ownership affect location of residence (sprawl), energy usage, and physical activity/obesity 3. How much does public transit reduce traffic congestion 4. How much does the flu vaccine reduce severe health outcomes, particularly among the older population We expect the following outputs from each research question: 1. A publication in an agricultural economics journal. 2. One or more publications in general interest economics journals, urban economics journals, environmental economics journal, or medical journals. Several domestic or international presentations of findings. 3. A publication in a general interest economics journal. Several domestic or international presentations of findings. 4. One or more publications in general interest economics journal or a medical journal. Several domestic or international presentations of findings.

Project Methods
Common to all research questions: (1 step) Step 1. Data sets will be collected. For research questions 1 and 3 this has already occurred. Research Question 1: Step 2. We will compare the food choices of students in the schools targeted by the curriculum to the food choices of students in schools not targeted by the curriculum. We will also control for pre-existing food choices to estimate a "differences-in-differences" type design. Step 3. We will describe our findings in a refereed publication. Research Question 2: Step 2. We will survey approximately 3,000 car lottery winners and losers using contact data provided by the Beijing transportation bureau. We will ask questions about location of residence, commute patterns, physical activity, and weight. Step 3. We will compare the locational choices, commute patterns, physical activity level, and obesity rates of lottery winner (car owners) and lottery losers (households without cars). The random design of the lottery ensures unbiased estimates of causal effects. Step 4. We will calculate the potential effects of car ownership on locational decisions and discuss the implications for urban sprawl. We will link the findings to policies designed to reduce car dependence in a refereed publication. Research Question 3: Step 2. We will analyze the effect of a transit strike on traffic congestion using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, we will compare congestion levels in the days just before the strike to congestion levels in days just after the strike. Step 3. We will compute the total gross benefits (in terms of congestion relief) of the Los Angeles transit system and measure whether current subsidy levels are justified. Step 4. We will describe our findings in a refereed publication. Research Question 4: Step 2. We will analyze the effect of the flu vaccine on hospitalizations and deaths among the elderly using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, we will compare hospitalizations and deaths for people just under 65 in the UK (who are not recommended for vaccination under the current policy) to hospitalizations and deaths for people just over 65 in the UK (who are not recommended for vaccination under the current policy). Step 3. We will analyze the effect of the flu vaccine on hospitalizations and deaths among other age ranges using a differences-in-differences design. Specifically, we will compare the difference in hospitalization rates between the vaccinated and unvaccinated in years in which the vaccine matches circulating flu strains to the difference in hospitalization rates between the vaccinated and unvaccinated in years in which the vaccine does not match circulating flu strains. If the vaccine reduces hospitalizations, this difference should be lower (or more negative) in years with a "good match rate" than it is in years with a "poor match rate". The difference-in-differences design in effect uses the unvaccinated group as a "control" group for the vaccinated group. Step 4. We will discuss the implications of these estimates in the context of serious illness reduction and optimal vaccination strategies. We will write up the results in a refereed publication.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/18

Outputs
Target Audience:Target audience is primarily other scientists. Presented project at other universities. Also conducted some outreach in popular press. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?For Goal 1 I trained a graduate student who became a coauthor on the project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The publications related to Goals 1 and 3 have been featured in popular press articles. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1. The first goal proved infeasible. However, I pursued a related project that measures the impact of healthy school meals on student achievement. This paper was published in a top field journal. Goal 2. We completed a mansucript and submitted itto a peer-reviewed journal. Goal 3. I completed the project and published it in a top general interest journal. Goal 4. We completed a manuscript and have submitted it to a peer-reviewed journal.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2018 Citation: Anderson, M., J. Gallagher, and E. Ramirez Ritchie. 2018. "School Meal Quality and Academic Performance." Journal of Public Economics. 168: 81-93.

Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?For Goal 3, I published a summary of the research findings in a magazine for transportation professionals. For Goal 1, our paper received broad media coverage, including in national publications such as the New York Times. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Publish the submitted manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1. The first goalproved infeasible. However, I pursued a related project that measures the impact of healthy school meals on student achievement. We have submitted a draft of this paper to a peer-reviewed journal, and the journal has requested a revision. Goal 2. We have completed our data analysis and are in the process of writing a mansucript for submission to a peer-reviewed journal. Goal 3. PublishedGoal 4.Submitted our manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Anderson, Michael L. 2017. "Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns." ACCESS Magazine, 51.

Progress 10/01/15 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Nothing Reported What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1: Nothing to report. Goal 2: Surveyed Beijing residents and input data. Constructed analytic data set for the project. Goal 3: Finalized summary of research findings for ACCESS Magazine (publication is delayed due to issues at ACCESS). Goal 4: Wrote draft of manuscript describing our research results.

Publications

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience: Nothing Reported Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?For Goal 3, I have prepared a summary of my research for future publication in ACCESS Magazine, which aims to "translate academic research into readable prose that is useful for policymakers and practitioners." What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1: We submitted a manuscript describing the effects of the taste education programto a refereed journal. Goal 2: We have assembled a sample of Beijing residents to which we will distribute our survey instrument in 2016. Goal 3: The research for Goal 3 is complete. We are now working on disseminating the findings (see below). Goal 4: We have begun statistical analysis to determine the effects of the flu vaccine on avoiding severe health outcomes among the elderly using our UK dataset. Preliminary results suggest that it is not nearly as effective at reducing severe health outcomes among the elderlyas policymakers may have envisioned when setting vaccination guidelines.

Publications

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Most of my research output is targetted at other scientists and academics. However, I have endeavored to share my findings with policymakers and general community members via the popular press. During the reporting period, I shared my research findings with newspapers and news radio in the New York Metropolitan region when they prepared for a major commuter rail strike. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Goal 1. We started a related project examining the effects of healthy school meals on academic test scores. In this project, in conjunction with my econometrics course, I have trained a graduate student researcher on data analysis. Goal 2. N/A Goal 3. N/A Goal 4. N/A How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Goal 1. N/A Goal 2. N/A Goal 3. Presentations at other economics departments and economics conferences. Goal 4. N/A What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Goal 1. We finished data analysis, prepared a draft manuscript, and submitted the manuscript to a refereed academic journal. It has not yet been accepted. Goal 2. We developed our survey instruments and began to collect the sample of individuals that we intend to survey for the project. Goal 3. We published the project findings in a top-ranked economics journal. We presented the findings domestically and internationally. The finding that public transit provision has very large impacts on traffic congestion has challenged the conventional wisdom in much of the urban transportation literature. Goal 4. We assembled the majority of the data sets for our project and began preliminary data analysis.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Anderson, Michael L. Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion. 2014. American Economic Review. 104(9): pp. 2763-2796.