Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/18
Outputs
Target Audience:Businesses, community developers and residents and policymakers will gain knowledge and understand the implications of recent rapid economic developments and activities in North Dakota. Changes/Problems:The two major difficulties of this project that I have encountered are: 1) The lack of availability of housing data for rural counties. There is not a uniform database for housing market values and housing characteristics for rural housing markets in North Dakota. 2) The lack of funding support to implement a survey on internet service, housing and cost of living in rural communities. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project has provided a training opportunity to a graduate student in my department. He took a field trip to the Bakken region, participated in a professional conference, managed the database and completed a master's thesis. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results and final report on the North Dakota Consumer Price Survey were disseminated via county extension agents via e-mail and a conference call; the result was also covered in a local newspaper. Other study results were disseminated via scholarly publications, oral and poster presentations at professional meetings, as well as my department's community outreach column. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The project has achieved 3 broad expected outcomes: 1. Improved understanding of policies and strategies that drive economic growth in rural communities 2. Improved understanding of the impacts of economic and infrastructure developments on rural communities 3. Improved understanding of food price changes in North Dakota rural communities. These outcomes under each of the two major goals are described below: Goals 1 & 2 Broadband technology is indispensable to modern economies. For rural economies, basic amenities, like telecommunication and affordable access to high-speed internet are essential for community sustainability and competitiveness. A database was created. The database consists of annual county-level FCC broadband availability data from 2008 to 2013, GIS (geographical characteristics) data, as well as economic and community data from the BEA and the U.S. Census. The data will be used for identifying the technological gap between rural and urban communities and the economic implications. The results show high level of broadband penetration in rural ND counties, but the effect of broadband accessibility on economic growth, and inflow and outflow of incomes was statistically insignificant. Rural economic growth was driven predominantly by oil-related activities in western ND. (Outcome 1) Goal #3 1. The recent oil boom in western North Dakota sparked concerns among the citizens of the state about rapidly rising prices in the region, including both oil-producing and non-oil-producing counties. Working with North Dakota Extension, we conducted a monthly grocery and food price survey statewide between September 2012 and December 2013. The key outcomes or conclusions from the 16-month study indicate that prices were indeed volatile, especially in oil-producing counties, but there was no significant increase in grocery prices throughout the study period. In fact, the grocery prices gradually stabilized between September 2012 and December 2013. Oil-producing counties experienced higher grocery prices than other counties, but no persistent upward trend in grocery prices was observed. Two possible explanations: (1) demand and supply adjustments overtime; (2) some counties opted out of the survey. Food prices tend to be higher in smaller communities. The results create a change in perception and knowledge about the cost of living in North Dakota. The results were also important for businesses to assess their wage rates. (Outcome 3) 2. In the past decade, there has been considerable growth in renewable energy in North Dakota which consists of corn-based ethanol production, electricity generation from wind turbines, and the manufacture of wind turbine components. Renewable energy development contributes to rural and regional sustainability, but the economic implications on rural development is not guaranteed. Additionally, little is known about the impacts of renewable energy on the local economy in North Dakota. Using expenditure data from renewable energy firms from 2002 to 2011, an economic impact study was conducted. The study shows that expansion of renewable energy infrastructure between 2002 and 2011 increased retailed sales, personal income, employments and total tax collections in North Dakota. In 2011, the total economic impact of the operations of renewable energy industries in North Dakota was $1.0 billion; two-thirds of which was contributed by ethanol production. (Outcome 2) 3. In another study, we examined the effects of casino establishments to local economies. The general public in the U.S. has become increasingly receptive to casinos. Morality arguments and religious influences against casino gambling have dissipated in many communities over the years while economic factors were the main drivers of increased public acceptance of gambling and casino expansions. We find the effects of casinos on economic growth to be positive but relatively small. Evidence of positive economic growth was observed in counties with expansions in medium- and large-sized casinos. There was no significant evidence of contribution from small-sized casino's expansion. We also find that the effect of casinos on per capita income growth between 2003 and 2012 disappeared after controlling for spatial effects, suggesting that local or regional factors other than casinos may be the drivers of income growth in the long term. On the other hand, we also find that casino expansion was positively associated with job growth for the same period. But the casino-driven job growth did not translate into higher per capita income growth. (Outcome 1) 4. I completed a study on the effect of oil boom on rural communities in North Dakota. The focus of the study was to examine if infrastructure development, increased oil production and rapid population growth led to negative socio-economic effects in the rural oil-producing communities. Most noticeably, the issue of housing scarcity as a result of an influx of workers, many of them were transient workers who moved to the region for better job and economic opportunities. The results support the social disruption hypothesis, that is, the recent oil boom led to higher property crimes and aggravated assaults in the oil producing region. Specifically, there was statistically significant evidence of increased aggravated assaults, burglaries, larcenies, and motor vehicle thefts in shale-oil producing counties during the boom. However, the results suggest that the rise in certain violent crime was not statistically attributable to the shale oil boom. (Outcome 2) 5. Another research project sought to examine the connection between water and energy in North Dakota. Our study found that fracking water use alone accounted for 43% of total water use in the four major oil-producing counties (Dunn, Mountrail, McKenzie and Williams) in North Dakota in 2014, up from 0.7% in 2007. Using data provided by the North Dakota State Water Commission, we examined the impact of shale oil development on water use in the Bakken region. We found that despite the increased industrial water use for oil production and the increased domestic use of water by the growing population in western North Dakota, the impact of shale oil production on the region's water resources was limited. (Outcome 2) 6. Another major activity completed was a household survey on the perceived benefits of a NASA's satellite-enhanced snowmelt flood forecast products for communities in the Red River Basin of the North (RRB). Agricultural economy is important and vibrant in the basin; 90% of the land use is for agricultural production (Red River Basin Decision Information Network, undated). One-third of the basin's population or approximately 247,000 people reside in Grand Forks-East Grand Forks and Fargo-Moorhead where jobs, education, financial and medical services and agribusinesses are located. The recent oil boom has witnessed rapid population growth and escalating housing demand in these areas that have historically suffered from recurrent flooding events. The NASA satellite enhanced snowmelt flood predictions make use of NASA satellite instruments to improve flood predictions in the Red River basin of the North. The Flood Control Act of 1936 establishes the criterion that the benefits of flood control projects must exceed the estimated costs (Durden and Fredericks, 2009). This project applied the stated preferences valuation to quantify the socioeconomic impacts of the NASA flood forecast product. A survey-informed contingent valuation (CV) analysis was employed to estimate the socioeconomic values of the improved forecast model. In Fall 2018, a mail survey was distributed to 1,500 randomly selected households in the RRB. In total, 310 mails were collected with 291 valid responses, resulting in a 19.5% valid response rate. The survey data are still being analyzed.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
Lim, S.H. 2018. Does Shale Energy Development Mean More Crime? The Case of The Bakken Oil Boom. Growth and Change 49(3): 413-441.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Lin, Z, T. Lin, SH Lim, MH Hove and W.M. Schuh. 2017. Impacts of Bakken Shale Oil Development on Regional Water Uses and Supply. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 54(1): 225-239.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Park, YS, SH Lim, G Egilmez and J Szmerekovsky. 2016. Environmental Efficiency Assessment of U.S. Transport Sector: A Slack-based Data Envelopment Analysis Approach. Transportation Research Part D: Transportation and Environment 61(A): 152-164.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Lim, SH and L Zhang. 2016. Does Casino Development Have a Positive Effect on Economic Growth? Growth and Change 48(3): 409-434.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Coon, RC, NM Hodur, DA Bangsund and SH Lim. 2015. Contributions of Renewable Energy Industries to the Local Economy in North Dakota. Great Plains Research 25(1): 1-12.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lim, SH. 2014. Accounting for Environmental Pollution in Production Function. Management of Environmental Quality 25(6): 679-695.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Lin, Z., T. Lin, and SH Lim. 2015. Groundwater Allocation and Management at Bakken in Western North Dakota. MODFLOW and More 2015 Proceedings, pp. 130-134.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
"A multi-agent system of water allocation and management in the Bakken Region" with Z Lin, T Lin and M Borders. 9th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Conference Proceedings, Fort Collins, Colorado.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2018
Citation:
⿿Social Impacts of the Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood Predictions in the Red River of the North Basin with Y. Ge, X. Jia, J. Jacobs and R. Schroeder. Poster Presentation at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, Washington, DC, December 14, 2018.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
⿿An Agent-based Model for Groundwater Allocation and Management at the Bakken Shale in Western North Dakota with T Lin and Z Lin. Presentation at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, December 11-15, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
⿿Shale Oil Production Expansion and Water-Energy Nexus in North Dakota: A Decentralized Agent-Based Modeling Approach with Z Lin, M Borders and T Lin. Poster Presentation at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, January 5 ⿿ 8, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
⿿Shale Oil Production Expansion and Water-Energy Nexus in North Dakota: A Decentralized Agent-Based Modeling Approach with Z Lin, M Borders and T Lin. Presentation at the Agricultural and Applied Economic Association Annual Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts, July 31 ⿿ August 2, 2016.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
⿿Developing an Agent-based Model for the Depot-based Water Allocation System in the Bakken field in Western North Dakota, with T Lin and Z Lin. Poster Presentation at American
Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 14-18, 2015.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
⿿Assessing the Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing at Bakken on Regional Water Resources, with Z Lin, T Lin and M. Borders. Oral Presentation at American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 14-18, 2015.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
⿿Groundwater Allocation and Management at Bakken in Western North Dakota, with Z Lin and T Lin. Poster Presentation at MODFLOW and More 2015 Conference: Modeling a Complex World, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado, May 31 ⿿ June 3, 2015.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
⿿Does Casino Development Have a Positive Effect on Local Economy? with L Zhang. Presentation at the Southern Regional Science Association (SRSA) Meeting, Mobile, Alabama, March 25-28, 2015.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Borders, Michael. 2016. An Analysis of Emergent Behavior in the North Dakota Water Depot-Based Water Allocation System using a Decentralized Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) Approach. North Dakota State University, Masters Thesis.
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Progress 10/01/16 to 09/30/17
Outputs
Target Audience:Researchers and professionals at annual professional meetings in New Orleans and Chicago. Changes/Problems:A major problem I encountered is the difficulty of obtaining housing data for rural North Dakota counties. Efforts were made to obtain housing data from Zillow, but the data file provided by Zillow contained empty cells for rural areas and were limited to mostly information on non-rural areas like Fargo, Bismarck and Grand Forks. Hence, a survey method will be attempted to assess housing affordability in rural counties. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results have been disseminated via a scholarly publication and two presentations at professional meetings.One of the papers is currently under review. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?The difficulty I encountered in obtaining housing value and cost data for rural counties had posed a challenge for achieving objective 2. The next step of my research will involve a household survey on internet service, housing and cost of living in rural communities. The objectives of the survey are to assess the benefits and the quality of internet service in rural households, and to evaluate economic well-being and housing affordability following the oil boom. The questionnaire has been developed and will be pretested before administering the survey.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Objectives 1 & 2: To analyze the impact of federal broadband initiative on North Dakota rural development, and to analyze factors that affect rural broadband adoption and accessibility. Using data collected from the Federal Communications Commission and other government courses, my initial study findings suggest that economic growth in rural western North Dakota was driven predominantly by oil production particularly during 2008 - 2013. While broadband adoption and accessibility in rural ND counties had increased, the effect of broadband accessibility on rural economic growth was negligible. The next step of my research involves a survey of rural households to assess the importance and benefits of broadband internet. Objective 3: To assess the outcomes of economic and infrastructure developments in rural North Dakota with a special focus on housing affordability, values and costs Another aspect of this research assesses the outcomes of economic and infrastructure development. Using data provided by the North Dakota State Water Commission, we examine the impact of shale oil development on water use in the Bakken region. We found that despite the increased industrial water use for oil production and the increased domestic use of water by the growing population in western North Dakota, the impact of shale oil production on the region's water resources was limited due to two reasons. First, the adaptive management approach by the state worked well, and second, the region experienced more precipitation than normal during the oil boom. In a separate study, we found that the oil boom also led to higher property crimes and aggravated assaults in the oil-producing region after controlling for county population and other characteristics. The effect of shale oil production expansion on county violent crimes, like murder and rape, was insignificant.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
An Agent-based Model for Groundwater Allocation and Management at the Bakken Shale in Western North Dakota with T Lin and Z Lin. Presentation at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, New Orleans, Louisiana, December 11-15, 2017.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Shale Oil Production Expansion and Water-Energy Nexus in North Dakota: A Decentralized Agent-Based Modeling Approach with Z Lin, M Borders and T Lin. Poster Presentation at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Chicago, Illinois, January 5 8, 2017.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Lin, Z, T. Lin, SH Lim, MH Hove and W.M. Schuh. 2017. Impacts of Bakken Shale Oil Development on Regional Water Uses and Supply. Journal of the American Water Resources Association. Forthcoming. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12605.
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:Businesses, community developers and residents and policymakers will gain knowledge and understand the implications of recent rapid economic developments and activities in North Dakota. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Most of my work in the next period will involve (1) finalizing the study on the effect of broadband development on rural North Dakota, (2) modeling the interaction between manmade/economic shocks and water resources allocation in rural North Dakota. An agent-based model is being developed to study the emergent pattern of water-depot based water distribution system in North Dakota; (3) studying the economic implications of oil production contraction on North Dakota's economic growth, labor market and housing prices.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
A database was updated during this reporting period. The database consists of annual county-level FCC broadband availability data from 2008 to 2013, GIS data, as well as economic and community data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census. The data were used for identifying the technological gap between rural and urban communities. The preliminary results show high level of broadband penetration in rural ND counties, but the effect of broadband accessibility on economic growth, and inflow and outflow of incomes was statistically insignificant. Rural economic growth was driven predominantly by oil-related activities in western ND. Mycolleagues and I are in the process of studying the impacts of shale oil boom and bust on rural communities in North Dakota using oil production data as well as economic data, we intend to look into the impact of housing prices and labor market crowding-out effect on these communities. A proposal was developed and submitted to NIFA this year, but it was not funded. We will revise the proposal based on the suggestions given by the reviewers for resubmission in 2016.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Does Casino Development Have a Positive Effect on Local Economy? with L Zhang. Presentation at the Southern Regional Science Association (SRSA) Meeting, Mobile, Alabama, March 25-28, 2015.
Groundwater Allocation and Management at Bakken in Western North Dakota, with Z Lin and T Lin. MODFLOW and More 2015 Proceedings, pp. 130-134.
Developing an Agent-based Model for the Depot-based Water Allocation System in the Bakken field in Western North Dakota, with T Lin and Z Lin. Poster Presentation at American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 14-18, 2015.
Assessing the Impacts of Hydraulic Fracturing at Bakken on Regional Water Res0urces, with Z Lin, T Lin and M. Borders. Oral Presentation at American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 14-18, 2015.
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Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? After the North Dakota Consumer Price Survey was completed in December 2013, I analyzed the price changes over time and across counties in North Dakota. The results and final report were disseminatedto county extension agents via e-mail and a conference call. The price data suggest that the grocery prices had gradually stabilized between September 2012 and December 2013. As expected, the oil patch in Western North Dakota has higher and more volatileprices. Two possible explanations: (1) demand and supply adjustments overtime; (2) some counties opted out of the survey. Food prices tend to be higher in smaller commodities. Although prices fluctuate every month, overall there was no significant increase in food prices during the 16-month study period. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Using the database that wasdeveloped and compiled from various sources this year, I will continue to analyze the impacts of infrastructure development (broadband expansion and availability) on the local economy in North Dakota. While a number of studies have examined the impacts of broadband development at the national scale, none has studied the impacts on rural economic development, and no study was conducted on North Dakota. In light of the oil boom in the state, the study separates the impacts of oil development from those of broadband in western ND. Also, the study controls for the spatial correlations of economic development and broadband accessibility (availability) between counties since an economic change in a county is likely going to create a spillover effect on its neighboring counties. Specifically, I look at the impacts of broadband expansion on the number of jobs, average wage per jobs, per capita income, and inflow, outflow and netflow of incomes at the county level. In recent years, rapid oil production expansion and fracking activities in the state havedriven the increased demand for water among different users. Another oneof my tasks in the next period will involve modeling the interaction between economic developments and water resources allocation in the oil patch as well as the implications of increased water demand andwater use onrural communitiesin western North Dakota.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
For Goals 1 & 2: Broadband technology is indispensable to modern economies. For rural economies, basic amenities, like telecommunication and affordable access to high-speed internet are essential for community sustainability and competitiveness. A database was created during this reporting period. The database consists of annual county-level FCC broadband availability data from 2008 to 2012, GIS (geographical characteristics) data, as well as economic and community data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census. The data are useful for identifying the technological gap between rural and urban communities and the economic implications. A traditional econometric model and a spatial econometric model were developed to analyze the impacts of broadband availability on inflow, outflow and outflow of incomes, number of jobs,per capitaincome, andaverage wage per job at the county level. For Goal 3: Recent economic boom in western North Dakota sparked concerns among the citizens of the state about rapidly rising prices in the region, including both oil-producing and non-oil-producing counties. Working with North Dakota Extension, we conducted a monthly grocery price survey statewide between September 2012 and December 2013. The key outcomes or conclusions from the 16-month study indicate that prices were indeed volatile, especially in oil-producing counties, but there was no significant increase in grocery prices throughout the study period. Oil-producing counties experienced higher grocery prices than other counties, but no persistent upward trend in grocery prices was observed. The results create a change in perception and knowledge about the cost of living in North Dakota. The results were also important for businesses to assess their wage rates.
Publications
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