Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF MONTANA
COLLEGE OF FORESTRY AND CONSERVATION
MISSOULA,MT 59812
Performing Department
College of Forestry and Conservation
Non Technical Summary
Forest ecosystems in western Canada have been subjected to recent human-induced changes from forestry, oil and gas development, altered fire cycles, and climate change. These impacts have shifted boreal forests toward early-seral stages and have added a network of non-forested linear fragmentation features, each of which has contributed to a web of direct and indirect effects on species across taxa. Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) are perhaps the flagship species for Canada's forest ecosystems. A subspecies endemic to North America, woodland caribou populations have declined since the early 1900's across most of their Canadian boreal forest range, a trend mirrored recently by the greater Rangifer tarandus species as a whole across the holarctic range of caribou and reindeer. Symptoms of concern in caribou dynamics have included range retraction, local extirpations, subspecies extinction, sudden population crashes, and widespread estimates of decline and decreased viability in local populations. Woodland caribou have been federally listed as threatened under Canada's Species at Risk Act (SARA) for a decade and as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act for almost 3 decades, yet critical habitat designation and recovery planning remain currently under litigation in both countries. Predation has been shown as the proximate factor limiting many woodland caribou populations. The strength of predation in limiting caribou has been hypothetically enhanced by anthropogenic landscape changes altering the dynamics of predators and other ungulate prey species. Commercial forestry subsidizes other ungulate prey with preferred early seral-staged forests and facilitates asymmetric predator-mediated apparent competition and caribou declines. Anthropogenic linear features such as oil/gas seismic exploration lines or trails also potentially promote caribou mortality by facilitating increased predator (e.g., wolf; Canis lupus) hunting efficiency and spatial overlap. However, much of the evidence for these mechanisms of caribou decline comes from observational studies of caribou behavioral avoidance and predator resource selection, with few direct links to population-level metrics such as predator kill rates or caribou survival and demography.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
Objective #1 - Create an up to date analysis of caribou demographic data for woodland caribou populations in Alberta (on provincial lands). This analysis will need to model variability in the demographic data. Demographic data will include adult female caribou survival rates and calf:cow (juvenile survival) rates that will be then combined to estimate population trends of caribou populations in Alberta. Deliverable - Provide a report on the demographic status and associated variability for all monitored woodland caribou populations. Report to be provided by September 1, 2012. Objective #2 - Investigate the potential to develop spatially explicit woodland caribou mortality models and maps. This analysis will focus on caribou populations in west-central Alberta and use mortality data from radiocollared adult female caribou data, wolf predation risk modeling from wolf GPS data, and other spatial datasets as appropriate to develop spatially explicit caribou mortality models. Deliverable - Provide a feasibility assessment and associated report outlining opportunities and constraints related to the development of mortality models and maps. Materials to be provided by March 1, 2013.
Project Methods
We will create an up-to-date analysis of caribou demographic data for woodland caribou populations in Alberta (on provincial lands). This analysis will model variability in the demographic data. Demographic data will include adult female caribou survival rates and calf:cow (juvenile survival) rates that will be then combined to estimate population trends of caribou populations in Alberta. We will also develop spatially explicit woodland caribou mortality models and maps. This analysis will focus on caribou populations in west-central Alberta and use mortality data from radiocollared adult female caribou data, wolf predation risk modeling from wolf GPS data, and other spatial datasets as appropriate to develop spatially explicit caribou mortality models.