Source: WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
WATERSHED INTEGRATED SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELING (WISDM): FEEDBACKS AMONG BIOGEOCHEMICAL SIMULATIONS, STAKEHOLDER PERCEPTIONS, AND BEHAVIOR
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0230079
Grant No.
2012-67003-19805
Cumulative Award Amt.
$1,495,640.00
Proposal No.
2012-03452
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Aug 15, 2012
Project End Date
Aug 14, 2017
Grant Year
2012
Program Code
[A3151]- Interagency Climate Change
Project Director
Brady, M.
Recipient Organization
WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY
240 FRENCH ADMINISTRATION BLDG
PULLMAN,WA 99164-0001
Performing Department
College of Sciences
Non Technical Summary
Sustainability and integrity of water resources and ecosystems are threatened by dwindling supplies, growing demand, and increased mobilization of freshwater phosphorous and nitrogen which contribute to oxygen-starved water, nuisance and toxic algae blooms, and reduced biodiversity. Climate change will exacerbate the pressures on water resources and ecosystems, particularly in semi-arid western watersheds such as the Columbia River Basin (CRB) where altered snowmelt patterns are already reducing summer discharges and increasing summer stream temperatures causing far-reaching social, economic, and ecological impacts related to agricultural production, endangered salmon populations, eutrophication, hydroelectric production, and human activities. Planning to deal with such problems requires holistic, process-based knowledge of biophysical and biogeochemical systems and the future responses of these systems to climate and anthropogenic change. Furthermore, assessment of water-system vulnerability requires directly modeling human and environmental system feedbacks, and interactions between economic and social entities heterogeneously across space. Our overall goal for this program is to improve understanding of interactions between water resources, water quality, climate change, and human behavior in agricultural and urban environments, including exploring how primary water users can be involved in the research process to develop scientifically sound and economically feasible public policy. Our approach is to construct linked models to study interactions between water use decisions and climate change-driven watershed processes, and then to explore how participant / stakeholder involvement in the modeling could both improve understanding of the systems and lay the groundwork for adaptive changes in institutional arrangements. Our rationale is that, by carrying out these studies in sub-basins selected as representative of hydrologic, biogeochemical, and community / land use variation across the CRB, these simulations and feedbacks will proceed in dynamic communication with regional-scale modeling, with smaller-scale work providing parameterization for the regional scale, while the regional scale provides boundary conditions for the smaller scale work. We expect that the work proposed here will transform understanding of the way complex water and climate science can become the basis for sound public policy to improve water conservation and water quality in the face of climate change.
Animal Health Component
30%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
40%
Applied
30%
Developmental
30%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1020320107025%
1120320107025%
6011699301025%
9030399303025%
Knowledge Area
601 - Economics of Agricultural Production and Farm Management; 102 - Soil, Plant, Water, Nutrient Relationships; 112 - Watershed Protection and Management; 903 - Communication, Education, and Information Delivery;

Subject Of Investigation
0320 - Watersheds; 1699 - Pasture and forage crops, general/other; 0399 - Watersheds and river basins, general;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology; 3010 - Economics; 3030 - Information and communication;
Goals / Objectives
The overall goal of this program is to improve understanding of interactions between water resources, water quality, climate change, and human behavior in agricultural and urban environments, including exploring how primary water users can be involved in the research process to develop scientifically sound and economically feasible public policy. The following four objectives are designed to address the overarching goal using the Columbia River Basin (CRB) as a case. 1. To determine how climate and land use changes have affected water quantity and quality in recent decades, and to predict climate impacts on water quantity and quality in the next few decades, we will adapt a regional-scale Biosphere-relevant Earth system model (BioEarth) the land component of which (BioEarth-Land) will be evaluated and parameterized using both observations and point to watershed-scale modeling for select test locations. This modeling framework will be applied over the entire CRB while finer resolution models will be applied over select sub-basins of the CRB that have experienced a range of agricultural, urban, and climate change-induced impacts. 2. To determine what agricultural practices will promote productivity under a new hydrologic regime, while preserving water quality and minimizing GHG emissions, we will include spatially disaggregated economic models related to water use and agricultural producer decision making in the modeling framework of objective 1, allowing us to integrate biogeochemical processes with economic analysis of multi-sector water use under scenarios of climate change and environmental policy. 3. To evaluate in-stream and out-of-stream water use trade-offs, our integrated modeling framework will be linked to an existing CRB reservoir management model that can optimize reservoir releases given hydrology, water withdrawals, hydropower demands, and policy constraints. 4. To investigate how changes in demand and supply-side economic conditions affect water use across space and time, and how regulatory institutions could adapt as water becomes increasingly scarce, we will link regional economic changes quantified with BioEarth-Land with individual-level decision-making analyzed using collaborative modeling (CM). Focusing on two sub-basins, we will use CM to analyze how irrigators' willingness to adapt to water regulatory institutions evolves as water quantity and quality change with climate and use CM to bring social, economic and institutional information to our basin-wide model of the CRB. The expected outcomes of this project point to watershed-scale integrated terrestrial, aquatic, socio-economic and collaborative modeling framework and an improved understanding as to how stakeholder groups can be directly involved in the modeling process. The anticipated impact of WISDM will be the potential to improve water use efficiency and simultaneously promote both in-stream and out-of-stream flow uses through the development of a multi-scale integrated hydrologic, biogeochemical, and economic modeling tool that is housed within a CM framework that allows primary water users and scientists to jointly propose and explore water policy adaptations.
Project Methods
Our approach integrates a system of existing and widely-applied models into an interdisciplinary framework that allows us to address the key issues surrounding the sustainability of water resources. This approach houses a complex integrated biogeochemical / economic model (BioEarth-Land) within a system dynamics modeling environment, a user-friendly, graphics-based approach that allows concerned stakeholders and scientists to jointly generate ideas for and explore adaptations to existing water regulatory institutions. To achieve stakeholder input to WISDM via system dynamics modeling, the primary linkages and feedbacks in BioEarth-Land will be identified using sensitivity analysis and incorporated into a system dynamics (SD) model in a simplified way such that non-researcher stakeholders can easily adjust key assumptions and parameters, allowing these participants to explore the first order impacts of water regulatory institution adaptations. Offline from the collaborative modeling (CM) activities, stakeholder-conceived and vetted regulatory changes are used to drive the BioEarth-Land model to analyze the impacts of these adaptations on multi-sector water availability, agricultural production, ecosystem services, GHG emissions, and hydropower production. Finally, these impacts are brought back to the CM to further refine adaption of the water regulatory institutions. The biophysical components of BioEarth-Land are grouped as follows: (1) terrestrial hydrologic and nutrient dynamic processes (VIC and CropSyst), (2) channel and reservoir processes related to streamflow quantity and seasonality (streamflow routing and ColSim), and (3) channel processes related to water quality (Global Nutrient from Water Sheds, Global NEWS). Sub-basin scale water quality scenarios, generated by NEWS, will be examined and refined via a parallel modeling effort using a 2-dimensional, laterally averaged, hydrodynamic and water quality model CE-QUAL-W2. Sub-basin scale hydrologic scenarios generated by VIC will be examined and refined via a parallel modeling effort using the Distributed Hydrology Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM). The BioEarth-Land model will be calibrated using a subset of existing hydrologic, nutrient and sediment export, and crop yield data for a range of CRB watersheds. We will achieve an institutional analysis and development framework through feedbacks between BioEarth-Land and CM. We will utilize CM to integrate information from BioEarth-Land, run for a variety of key scenarios, into a SD model that can be run with input from stakeholders for scenario exploration. CM involves running SD models with stakeholders in real time, allowing them to drive inputs and scenarios for the SD model, and developing an understanding as to what changes in the biophysical system will cause them to promote a change in policy. Our model runs will be designed to discover scientifically valuable linkages and feedbacks in the highly sensitive systems of the CRB.

Progress 08/15/12 to 08/14/17

Outputs
Target Audience:There was a steady drumbeat of changes in water management in the Columbia River Basin in the decade prior to the initiation of the WISDM project in 2012. The possibility that these portended more radical changes in the future provided the motivation and the design of the project. The first two years of the project through 2013 largely stayed the course, which allowed researchers to initiate research. Expectations became reality starting in the latter months of 2013 continuing through the end of the project. A series of substantial weather, economic, and legal shocks have reverberated through water management institutions in Washington State since. While the political atmoshphere has intensified as a result, it has provided an opportunity to observe and influence the evolution of water management institutions in real time. Most importantly, the WISDM project provided researchers the means to work with key stakeholder groups to navigate these changes to the benefit of society. These are summarized below. *researchers/scientists (e.g. peer reviewers, scientific workshop participants, conferences/seminar participants, etc.): Outreach to theacademic target audience was achieved primarily through presentations at leading academic conferences. WISDM faculty and graduate students presented at many prominent academic conferences. A partial list includes American Geophysical Union, Agriculture and Applied Economics Association Meetings, Pacific Northwest Regional Economics Conference, Northwest Climate Science Conference, the American Water Resources Association Meetings, and the Water for Food Global Conference at the University of Nebraska Daugherty Center. *students To develop collaborative potential (as well as disseminate WISDM results) across the WSU campus and the region, we coordinated with the BioEarth project to organize annual community-wide open poster sessions on the campus which attracted students and researches (from a large breadth of disciplines) from both WSU and the University of Idaho. *non-academic stakeholders reached: The participatory modeling (PM) approach, which was at the foundation fo the WISDM project, provided the venue for extensive non-academic stakeholder engagement. The watershed of focus for the PM was the Spokane/Couer D'Alene watershed.The Collaborative Modeling group has been the primary group for outreach and communication to the stakeholders of interest. The CM group attends monthly bi-state meetings, where the project goals, progress and accomplishments have been communicated to relevant stakeholders; meetings include the Idaho Washington Aquifer Collaborative (IWAC), WA Water Resource Inventory Area, and SVRP Comprehensive Aquifer Management Group. Facilitation throughout 2016 and 2017 has set the foundation for the development of public outreach videos (Public Service Announcements) to be aired on Spokane Basin television beginning in 2018. Videos are targeting water quality, use and conservation and water stewardship (including the water cycle). In addition, Drippy the Drop K-4 water resource education coloring cards will begin distribution to Spokane Basin Schools in 2018.An additional list of stakeholders engaged in the PM in Spokane/Couer D'Alene included Washington Dept. of Water Resources, Idaho Dept. of Environmental Quality, Spokane County Water Resources, Couer D'Alene Tribe of Indians, North Kootenai County Water and Sewer, Hayden Lake Irrigation District, City of Post Falls, Liberty Lake Sewer and Water District, Spokane County Water District No. 3, Vera Water and Power, Spokane Aquifer Joint board, Avista, Ralston Hydrologic Services, and JUB Engineers. The environmental engineering group also engaged in extensive non-academic stakeholder outreach in the Spokane area along with the PM group as part of the Spokane River Forum. The engineering group was also active at the Columbia River Policy Advisory Group quarterly meetings. The CRPAG consists of a diverse array of perspectives including environmental interests, water rights regulators, the Columbia Basin Project, Bureau of Reclamation, and irrigators. The economics team has focused most non-academic stakeholder engagement in activities related to residential well management in Washington State. Researchers leveraged the WISDM grant to gain additional funding from the Washington State Legislature to perform a cost analysis of small-scale distributed storage that would allow for new residential development in the basin. This project initiated the creation of large stakeholder group including Skagit Public Utilities District, Tatoosh Water Company, Washington State Department of Ecology, the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, and elected members of the Washington State Senate and House of Representatives. The published report also underwent a public comment period that allowed any member of the general public to provide comment. During the course of the WISDM project, restrictions on residential wells were compounded by additional legal decisions made by the Washington State Supreme Court. WISDM researchers were actively engaged with the Washington Department of Ecology Water Resources Division on a frequent basis to provide expertise on the economic impacts of well restrictions. Restrictions on wells has been credited with the inability of the Legislature to approve a new capital budget. WISDM researchers provided economic expertise to the Dept. of Ecology and the Governor's Office staff. WISDM researchers have also worked with Dept. of Ecology staff to assess the impact of outdoor water use restrictions in the Dungeness Basin. There was also direct outreach between the WISDM grant and another USDA funded WSC grant led by Nicholas Brozovic. The two groups collaborated in an outreach effort with the Roza Irrigation District in the Yakima Basin. The goal was to transfer knowledge of smart market systems for facilitating intra-district water leasing during droughts. Changes/Problems:The most significant obstacle that had to be overcome during the grant were changes in positions of key personnel. Most significantly, the original principal investigator, Cailin Huyck-Orr, left WSU in the middle of the grant. Dr. Brady took over the role of PI with support from WISDM researchers. Also, Dr. Michael Barber left WSU to join the University of Utah midway through the grant. This create some challenges in keeping communication going between team members, and also create significant administrative costs in managing an additional large sub-award. The most significant change in the grant was to switch focus from the Willamette Basin to the Skagit Basin. This worked to the great benefit of the grant. The Skagit Basin became emblematic of the most critical water resource management problems in Washington following the "Swinomish Decision" by the Washington State Supreme Court in 2013. Our change in focus allowed WISDM to contribute to working through the growing problem of residential wells. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Over the final 18 months of the grant an extensive part of Melanie Thornton's PhD research was directed at developing facilitation techniques and facilitating stakeholders with multiple value systems as they work to solve real world problems. Thornton has become an astute facilitation who is well versed in value laden and politically charged issues. She has also developed a strong foundation in hydrologic modeling and is capable of understanding hydrologic model language. Stakeholders valued her facilitation as well as scientific capability and provided her with recommendation letters for post-graduation opportunities. Thornton has been awarded a AAAS Congressional Science Fellow sponsored by GSA/USGS. She was assigned to Senator Udall's office September 2017. The facilitation team mentored additional graduate researchers and two undergraduate researchers and included them in the facilitation process and post workshop debriefs. Data analysis utilizing Ostrom's framework performed by the undergraduate researchers supported an 2017 Honors thesis and will result in a co-authored publication that includes the entire graduate and undergraduate team. Graduate student Kayla Wakulich is collaborating with stakeholders on the development of K through 4th material to help elementary school students better understand the complex hydrology of the Spokane Basin. These materials are expected to reach schools in 2018. Graduate student Jennifer Johnson was also a part of the facilitation team, she developed presentation, communication, and networking skills. Working with stakeholders as they shifted focus towards an extensive education and outreach campaign shifted Johnsons PhD research focus to science communication, education and outreach. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The Collaborative Modeling group has been the primary group for outreach and communication to the stakeholders of interest. The CM group attends monthly bi-state meetings, where the project goals, progress and accomplishments have been communicated to relevant stakeholders; meetings include the Idaho Washington Aquifer Collaborative (IWAC), WA Water Resource Inventory Area, and SVRP Comprehensive Aquifer Management Group. Facilitation throughout 2016 and 2017 has set the foundation for the development of public outreach videos (Public Service Announcements) to be aired on Spokane Basin television beginning in 2018. Videos are targeting water quality, use and conservation and water stewardship (including the water cycle). In addition, Drippy the Drop K-4 water resource education coloring cards will begin distribution to Spokane Basin Schools in 2018. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Economics Group: At the beginning of the WISDM project, the economics group had a very clear questions. "What events create an evolution in water management institutions?" At the completion of the project we have a clear answer, which is rural residential wells. Rural environmental amenity driven growth has become the key economic driver for rural areas, but as water resources have become more scarce, it has led to a series of sweeping legal decisions prohibiting new uses without mitigation. This has led to a significant expansion in water markets in the state. It has also required water regulatory agencies to build greater capacity for facilitating water banks, expand their conceptions of what a water bank is, and learn to play multiple roles (regulator, market maker, dispute settlement) at the same time. Our study of these changes has led to papers that are currently in review at leading land and water journals. In terms of economic impact, the most significant contribution of the WISDM study has been the collaboration with the Brozovic WSC funded grant, which led to the adoption of smart water markets developed in Nebraska in two large junior irrigation districts (Roza Irrigation District and Kittitas Reclamation District) in the Yakima Basin. When the next drought occurs, these systems are likely to limit drought impacts by millions of dollars by facilitating intra-district ag-to-ag leases from low to high value crops. Prior to this these districts had no means of quickly and efficiently matching interested buyers and sellers of water, which limited the potential for trading to mitigate drought. Hydrologic Modeling Group: This group is performing detailed studies over the "WISDM-sheds" that span across a gradient of predominant drivers of change. In addition to that (and through leveraging another NIFA project - "BioEarth"), we are running Columbia Basin-scale models to inform many of the research questions in the WISDM project. Over the duration of the WISDM project, we accomplished the following things for each of these watersheds. Spokane River basin: In year 2, we conceptually designed an integrated modeling platform for the Spokane system that should capture the most important hydrologic processes in this system. This framework is comprised of the MODFLOW (Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model), PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) models. In year 3, we made progress in developing and calibrating the Spokane River and Spokane Valley Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer MODFLOW/VIC/PRMS combined modeling schematic. In year 4, we finalized the PRMS calibrations. While the final aspects of this framework are still in development (and therefore scenarios have not been completed), this framework should prove to be a valuable tool to understand the impacts of climate change on water availability in a system dominated by surface-groundwater interaction. Yakima River basin:In year 4, we ran an experiment with the RHESSys model to evaluate the role that soil and geologic properties play in governing streamflow response to climate change - information that is crucial for understanding water availability in an altered climate do downstream water users, such as irrigators. In year 5, we coupled RHESSys with the MODFLOW groundwater model to create a framework for investigating catchment recharge and groundwater flow sensitivity to both soil and geologic characteristics and climate perturbation. This framework can be expanded to include human activities in the later stages of our research. We also furthered our work with VIC-CropSyst over the YRB through a more mechanistic representation of irrigation technology and losses; this model was tested over the YRB. With an initial test case over the YRB, we developed the Agricultural Spatial Economic Analysis Platform (ASEAP) that works at regional scale and simulates environment-human relationships over agricultural areas. We used ASEAP to simulate how climate change impacts hydrology and agriculture of YRB and how these changes affect farmers' investment decisions to invest on new irrigation technology. We also used VIC-CropSyst to simulate impacts of climate change on efficiency of irrigation systems and assessed the downstream consequences of change in basin-wide irrigation efficiency. Salmon River basin: We published a paper based on a masters thesis, where we investigated the impact of how climate change is impacting post-fire erosion and sediment to streams. This study also used an integrated modeling framework that involved VIC for the hydrology and the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) for post-fire erosion. Because erosion processes are very fine in spatial scale, we retain WEPP simulations at their native very fine resolutions (hillslope-scale) and drive these simulations with runoff production from the coarser-scale VIC model. We used a representative hillslope method to reduce computational requirements for simulations over larger areas. Collaborative Modeling Group The Collaborative Modeling (CM) group has expanded the definition of a collaboratively built model to include not only simulation models but also multiple types of systems thinking exercises that include causal loop diagrams and mental models exercises. This expansion comes in part from the realization by our primary stakeholders in the collaborative modeling process that scientific understanding of their hydrologic systems and climate change was compelling enough to act upon. Causal loop and systems thinking exercises identified education and outreach as the next logical step. That being said, convincing a general population to buy-in to changes in management is a complex value driven political process. Most of the managers in the basins in which we work are engineers who operate pumps, delivery systems, waste and stormwater. They found themselves ill prepared for broad reaching, collaborative political negotiations that had not been mandated (e.g. TMDL). Facilitated workshops with managers resulted in the development of politically acceptable outreach concepts which were funded by local and state entities and are currently being commercially developed for dissemination by the stakeholder group. This first step of public outreach is targeting 600,000 basin constituents in this multi-jurisdictional, bi-state system with water resource messaging that is coming from a single unified voice. Analysis of stakeholder interviews and their perceptions of universities as bridging organizations to support institutional change resulted in dissertation (Thornton 2017). Conclusions of this research reinforce the necessity for bridging organizations that support evolving water resource issues must be adaptable and be prepared to change course with stakeholder groups. To quote one stakeholder "we know we never really solve problems - but rather just move on to the next pressing issue". Predicting when these shifts may happen is difficult. University researchers bound to specific outcomes may find themselves challenged to support stakeholder group needs if the desired outcomes of those stakeholders diverge mid-process. Recommendations for university researchers acting as bridging organizations include designing flexible approaches, iterative exploration of the problem and objectives, and having an understanding of multiple facilitation skills and participation techniques (Thornton 2017)

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Brady, M., J. Padowski, J.K. Yoder, E. Jessup, and Q. Yang. Reallocating Water Through Small Scale Distributed Storage in the Skagit River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (in review).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Rajagopalan, K.R., K. Chinnayakanahalli, C.O. Stockle, R. Nelson, A. Hamlet, M. Brady, M. Barber, C. Kruger, K. Malek, G. Yorgey, S. Dinesh, and J.C. Adam, 2017, Impacts of near-term regional climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin. Water Resources Research (in review)
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2017 Citation: Khan, M.A., C.O. Stockle, T. Peters, J.C. Adam, R.G. Allen, R. Trezza, B. Lamb, and C. Jinshu, 2017. Evaluation of METRIC for estimation of actual evapotranspiration from dryland agricultural systems in eastern Washington State, Remote Sensing of Environment (in review).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Malek, K., C.O. St�ckle, R. Nelson, K.J. Chinnayakanahalli, Liu, M., Rajagopalan, K., Muhammad, B., and J. C. Adam, 2016. VIC-CropSyst: A regional-scale modeling platform to simulate the nexus of climate, hydrology, cropping systems, and human decisions, Geoscientific Model Development, doi: 10.5194/gmd-10-3059-2017.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Li, D., M.L. Wrzisien, M. Durand, J.C. Adam, and D.P. Lettenmaier, 2016. How much western United States streamflow originates as snow? Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1002/2017GL073551.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Hall, S., J.C. Adam, M. Barik, J. Yoder, M. Brady, D. Haller, M. Barber, C. Kruger, G. Yorgey, M. Downes, C. Stockle, B. Aryal, T. Carlson, G. Damiano, S. Dhungel, C. Einberger, K. Hamel-Reiken, M. Liu, K. Malek, S. McClure, R. Nelson, M. OBrien, J. Padowski, K. Rajagopalan, Z. Rakib, B. Rushi, and W. Valdez, 2016. Columbia River Basin Long-Term Water Supply and Demand Forecast, Washington State Legislative Report, https://fortress.wa.gov/ecy/publications/SummaryPages/1612001.html.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Adam, J.C., 2017. Water in 2035: Water Supply and Demand Forecast for the Columbia River Basin. American Water Resources Association  Washington. Seattle, WA, Oct 3, 2017.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Adam, J.C., 2017. Climate Change Impacts: Water Resources and Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin. Washington State Academy of Sciences. Seattle, WA, Sep. 14, 2017.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Adam, J.C., 2016. Columbia Basin water and agriculture in a changing climate. USDA-ARS Liaison Committee Meeting, Pullman, WA. Oct 13.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Nguyen, T.T., Adam, J.C., 2017. Soil and geologic controls on recharge and groundwater flow response to climate change: A case study of the Yakima River Basin. MODFLOW and More Conference, Golden, CO, May 2017.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Malek, K., J.C. Adam, C. Stockle, and M. Brady, 2016. Downstream consequences of switching to more efficient irrigation technologies. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 12-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Rushi, B.R., M. Barik, S.Y. Lee, K. Rajagopalan, M. Brady, J. Petrie, M. Barber, J. Boll and J.C. Adam, 2016. Columbia River Treaty renegotiation: Potential impacts on agriculture, hydropower and flood risk in the context of an altered climate. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 12-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Nguyen, T., C. Tague, and J.C. Adam, 2016. The role of catchment soil and geologic properties in governing mountain streamflow response to climate change. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 12-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Barik, M., B. Rushi, K. Malek, K. Rajagopalan, S. Hall, C. Kruger, M. Brady, C. Stockle, and J.C. Adam, 2016. Assessment of long-term irrigation water availability over the highly managed and economically important agricultural region of the Columbia River basin. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 12-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Malek, K., J.C. Adam, C. Stockle, and M. Brady, 2016. How does climate change impact farmers investment decisions? 7th Annual Northwest Climate Conference, Stevenson, WA. Nov 14-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Nguyen, T.T., Pham, V.H., Bachmann, M., Tague, N., Adam, J.C., 2017. Soil and geologic controls on recharge and groundwater flow response to climate change in the Yakima River Basin. 8th Annual Northwest Climate Conference, Tacoma WA, October 2017.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Malek Keyvan, Jennifer Adam, Michael Brady, Claudio Stockle, 2017, Downstream water availability consequences of investment on new irrigation technologies, American Society of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Jul 16-19, Spokane, WA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Malek, K., J.C. Adam, C. Stockle, M. Brady, 2017. How Are Regional Water and Energy Cycles Affected by Improvements in Irrigation Efficiency? American Meteorological Society, January 2226, Seattle, WA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Beall King, A and Thornton, M. 2016. How and When: Institutional change in water resource governance in the Inland Northwest. Presentation American Water Resource Association Conference September 2016 Orlando, Florida.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M., Johnson J., and Beall King, A and 2016. Time to Engage? How regional stakeholders work together. Presentation American Water Resource Association Conference September 2016 Orlando, Florida.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Beall King, A and Thornton, M. 2016. Staying the Course: Collaborative Modeling to Support Adaptive and Resilient Water Resource Management. Invited paper Water: Special Issue "Water Governance, Stakeholder Engagement, and Sustainable Water Resources Management". Published: 31 May 2016
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: OASIS model of surface groundwater interactions in the Spokane River Basin-Spokane Valley Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer completed.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Beall King, A and Porcello, J. Does our Future Include Enough Water?. Spokane River Forum Invited Keynote Co-Speaker.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M. and Beall King, A. Experiences from engaging stakeholders in the Spokane Basin Innovations for Collaborative Modeling Conference, Lansing Michigan, June 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M., Johnson, J., Wakulich, K., Woodley, K. Beall King, A. Bi-State Water Stewardship Messaging: Engaging Regional Stakeholders. Presentation at Spokane River Forum, Coeur dAlene, Idaho, March 23, 2016.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Lajtha, K., E. Bai, T. Baisden, B. Bowden, J. Brookshire, E. Brzostek, S. Crow, C. Driscoll, C. Evans, J. Finlay, M. Fisk, S. Grandy, L. Hamdan, J. Harrison, C. Hawkes, K. Kalbitz, S. Kaushal, M. Kramer, E. Matzner, J. Melack, J. Mulder, S. Porder, J. Sanderman, E. Stanley, J. Tank, M. Vile, M. Voss, K. Wieder, and S. Ziegler (2017) Brave New World, Biogeochemistry. doi: 10.1007/s10533-017-0316-y.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Z. Rakib, M. Barber, and R. Mahler, (2017). Climate Change Impacts on Urban Stormwater Best Management Practices, International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, 12(1):155-164.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Metson, G. S., J. Lin, J.A. Harrison, and J.E. Compton (2017) Linking 2012 terrestrial P inputs to riverine export from watersheds across the United States, Water Research, 10.1016/j.watres.2017.07.037.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: McCrackin, M.L., E.J. Cooter, R.L. Dennis, J.A. Harrison, and J.E. Compton (2017) Monthly dissolved inorganic nitrogen export from the Mississippi River Basin: a new, loosely coupled multimedia model, Biogeochemistry. doi:10.1007/s10533-017-0331-z.
  • Type: Books Status: Submitted Year Published: 2017 Citation: Glibert, P.M., A.H.W. Beusen, J.A. Harrison, H. D�rr, A.F. Bouwman, and G. Laruelle (Submitted) Changing land-, sea-, and airscapes: sources of nutrient pollution affecting habitat suitability for harmful algae, in: GEOHAB Synthesis Book; Title to be determined P.M. Glibert Ed.


Progress 08/15/15 to 08/14/16

Outputs
Target Audience:• Washington State Senator Barbara Bailey • David Christensen, Barbara Anderson, Tom Culhane, Tom Buroker, John Rose, Washington State Department of Ecology • Swinomish Tribe • Washington Senate Agriculture, Water & Rural Economic Development Committee • Guy Gregory and John Covert, Washington Department of Water Resources • Neely Miller, Idaho Department of Water Resources • Gary Stevens, Idaho Department of Environmental Quality • Rob Lindsay and Mike Hermanson, Spokane County Water Resources • Laura Laumatia, Coeur d'Alene Tribe of Indians • Mike Galanate, North Kootenai County Water and Sewer • Allen Wiley, Hayden Lake Irrigation District • Paul Beacham, City of Post Falls • Jeremy Jenkins, Liberty Lake Sewer and Water District • Ty Wick, Spokane County Water District No. 3 • Todd Henry, Vera Water and Power • Andy Dunau, Spokane River Forum • Tonilee Hanson, Spokane Aquifer Joint Board • Pat Maher and Linda Kiefer, Avista • Dale Ralston and Gary Johnson, Ralston Hydrologic Services • Dan Sheer and Dean Randall, Hydrologic Consulting Firm • Paul Klatt, JUB Engineers • Paul Kimmel, Avista Changes/Problems:The major change that we have made in the WISDM grant is to switch one of our four basins of study from the Willammette Basin in Oregon to the Skagit Basin in Washington State. This is due to two factors. The first is that before the grant began we were unaware of the detailed modeling done by the group led by Roy Haggerty of Oregon State University associated with Willamette 2100. We also learned from Washington State agencies that the Skagit Basin posed the most challenging water management problem in the state. Therefore, we determined that it was better to reallocate our resources to the Skagit. This led to extensive collaboration with state agencies, politicians, and local stakeholders including the Swinomish Tribe and local home owners. We believe that we have identified a pathway to allow for new uses of water in a way that does not impinge upon existing water rights holders. The local economic impact would likely be in the many hundreds of millions of dollars as there are more than 400 homes that do not have access to legal water thus rendering them with almost no market value. There is also no pathway for allowing additional growth. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?WISDM PhD student Will Forney made satisfactory progress toward his degree this past year, achieving a number of his proposed goals, which included the following: attending a workshop on spatial modeling of stream network (April 25-27, held in Boise, ID), holding an initial committee meeting, presenting research updates on: 1) his thesis proposal for the weekly Harrison lab group meeting titled "Understanding DIN dynamics at regional, sub-annual scales in the Columbia River Basin," and 2) "Advancing the serial discontinuity concept into water and nutrients fluxes of aquatic system components via system dynamics, riparian landscape ecology, and RiverStrahler" At the BioEarth/WISDM All-Hands meeting, February 24th, 2016, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, Will presented: 1) an ignite talk on his research, and 2) a poster: William M. Forney and John A. Harrison, "Improvements to the Nutrient Export form WaterSheds model in the Columbia River Basin" another poster at the Natural Science Research Graduate Symposium: William M. Forney and John A. Harrison, "Improvements to the Nutrient Export form WaterSheds model in the Columbia River Basin," February 25th, Natural Science Research Graduate Symposium, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA.A proposal to the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship program, Feb. 8th, "Using remote sensing products to understand water balances, nutrient dynamics, and Redfield-Brzezinksi ratios in two contrasting western rivers" Forney has also been working on developing his dissertation proposal, titled "Multi-scaled investigations of nutrient dynamics and water fluxes in the Pacific Northwest," and has (as of spring, 2016) finished classes in his Program of Study. He has contributed substantively to a draft manuscript titled "Land use, lake morphometry, and water quality as predictors for the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in Pacific Northwest lakes," and, with Harrison, Lamb, and others, has been involved in early discussions regarding a paper focused on a nitrogen budget for the Pacific Northwest region. Melanie Thornton PhD candidate in the School of the Environment has taken lead of the facilitation group that now includes School of the Environment PhD students Jennifer Johnson, Kayla Wakulich and Korey Woodley and undergraduate researchers Madeline Gray and Rebecca Bence. PhD students were provided the opportunity to take a semester long leadership class to improve facilitation and outreach capabilities. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?As is the case throughout the grant, we have worked extensively with a large number of stakeholder groups to disemminate results. The new groups that we worked with in the 4th year including state politicians representing the Skagit Basin area, the Washington State Senate Agriculture Committee, the Washington State Department of Agriculture, and the Washington State Department of Ecology representatives in the Skagit Basin. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Now that the project is moving into its 5th no cost extension year our focus will be on finishing a large number of research papers and modeling products. A major focus will be on the repercussions of the "Hirst Decision", which is a Washington State Supreme Court Decision that essentially requires any new rural residential development to prove that they do not impair any existing water right holder. This represents the exact type of action that was the focus of the WISDM grant and is consistent with our findings in the early part of our research that led us to focus on rural residential development as the primary agent of change in water management institutions in Washington State. We will continue to work with state agencies to explore whether public water systems can be a mechanism for reallocating water from low to high value uses. We will also use the house price index to complete a series of papers that help us forecast demand for rural residential water use.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Economics The economics group achieved two major benchmarks associated with goals for this project in 2016. The first was the completion of a house price index for rural high environmental amenity housing.This is the outcome of our research in the first two years of the grant that discovered that rural residential development that relies on groundwater from wells is the major cause of institutional change in water management. This is an outcome of scientific understanding of ground and surface water continuity where permit exempt wells have been found to impair surface water rights holders. In order to assess the economic implications of institutional change like water markets andgrowth management plans is a better understanding of the drivers of demand for rural housing. To achieve this we completed a house price index for this market that is a first of its kind. We expect it to be used throughout the Western United States for a number of natural resource management purposes including wildfire management, water, and public lands. The paper documenting this method is currently in its second revision at the journal Land Economics. The second major accomplishment for the economics group was the completion of an analysis extending the project into the Skagit Basin. After extensive discussion with state water managemers it was revealed that their most difficult problem is in the Skagit Basin even though it is in an area that receives a large amount of rainfall on an annual basis. This is the outcome of Native American Tribes exercising their senior water rights to restrict rural residential development. The Skagit is unique in that the nature of water rights make water markets of limited use. Therefore, we performed a modeling exercise to determine whether public water systems could, in a financially feasible way, extending pipelines for surface water flow augmentation rather than for direct service. This research culminated in testimony to the Washington State Senate committee that oversees agriculture and natural resource management. Also, it led to a report submitted to the Washington State Legislature. Our additional major accomplishment was to enable the Roza Irrigation District to adopt an electronic smark water market trading system to help them mitigate drought. If this system works as expected it should result in a net gain to agriculture in Washington by many tens of millions of dollars during a drought. Water Quality Modeling (CE-QUAL-W2 and NEWS) Our primary task was to evaluate the impacts of urbanization and climate change on nutrient loading in the Spokane River and determine how fine-scale modeling efforts can be used to assist large-scale watershed modeling efforts. To evaluate the impacts of urbanization, population change and climate change on the nutrient loading in the Spokane River, the calibrated model was applied to simulate water quality changes in Spokane River-Long Lake system in response to various climate change and population growth scenarios for period 2040-2050.Model results indicated that hydrologic conditions outside the low flow period may be cause for concern. Violation of water quality standards occurred outside the low flow period considered by the Ecology Model, with both phosphorus and nitrate concentrations being much higher in years with higher flows. While the current TMDL proposes a 50% reduction of nonpoint loading, our results indicate this will not be adequate. Model results indicated to the disproportionate increase of streamflow during winter, which can overwhelm the existing stormwater flow and pollution control infrastructure through exceedingly high nutrient loadings. It also implied that urban BMPs are perhaps inadequately designed at present to handle nonpoint pollution in areas that are projected to experience increased precipitation events. Participatory Modeling The participatory modeling group has expanded the definition of a collaboratively built model to include not only simulation models but also multiple types of systems thinking exercises that include causal loop diagrams and mental models exercises. This expansion comes in part from the realization by our primary stakeholders that scientific understanding of their hydrologic systems is compelling enough to act upon. Facilitated workshops with managers resulted in the development of politically acceptable outreach concepts which are currently being commercially developed for dissemination by the stakeholder group. The CM group attends monthly bi-state meetings, where the project goals, progress and accomplishments have been communicated to relevant stakeholders; meetings include the Idaho Washington Aquifer Collaborative (IWAC), WA Water Resource Inventory Area, and SVRP Comprehensive Aquifer Management Group. Furthermore, we have spent a significant amount of time in the Spokane region to stay current and updated on regional water resources, which resulted in the development of new performance measures for the CM workshops (ex: WA Dept. of Ecology passed a new instream flow rule for the Spokane River). Hydrologic Modeling Group This group is performing detailed studies over the "WISDM-sheds": the Spokane, Yakima, Willamette, and Salmon River basins that span across a gradient of predominant drivers of change. In addition to that (and through leveraging another NIFA project - "BioEarth"), we are running Columbia Basin-scale models to inform many of the research questions in the WISDM project. We state accomplishments related to each of these efforts. Spokane River basin: This framework is comprised of the MODFLOW (Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model), PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) models. In year 4, we finalized the PRMS calibrations and future climate scenarios were finalized for forecasting and efforts towards running the model with forecasted data have begun. Yakima River basin: In year 4, we ran an experiment with the RHESSys model to evaluate the role that soil and geologic properties play in governing streamflow response to climate change - information that is crucial for understanding water availability in an altered climate do downstream water users, such as irrigators. RHESSys was combined with a stochastic optimization code named Hybrid Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (HCMA) and the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA) framework to explore how soil and geology-related parameters affect different metrics of climate elasticity of streamflow (i.e. 7-day minimum, seasonal and annual average) across these three catchments. Salmon River basin: We published a paper for publication focused on the Salmon River basin, based upon work that was completed in year 2 of this project (Gould et al., 2015). Columbia River basin: Our regional-scale modeling tools are being applied to understand the impacts of potential revisions in the Columbia River Treaty (CRT). We considered two modifications in current treaty as treaty scenarios from the Columbia River Treaty Review Phase 2 Iteration 3 that have possibility to impact the agricultural sector. Under these alternative scenarios, treaty storages are increased and released such a manner that fisheries, ecosystem and agriculture of the region benefit from these during the low flow months. Implementing these scenarios in our reservoir model indicates increased flow and decreased curtailment during the irrigation season. These two alternative treaty scenarios are also tested separately under low flood risk and high flood risk conditions.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Beall King, A and Thornton, M. 2016. Staying the Course: Collaborative Modeling to Support Adaptive and Resilient Water Resource Management. Invited paper Water: Special Issue "Water Governance, Stakeholder Engagement, and Sustainable Water Resources Management". Published: 31 May 2016
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Beall King, A and Porcello, J. Does our Future Include Enough Water?. Spokane River Forum Invited Keynote Co-Speaker.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M. and Beall King, A. Experiences from engaging stakeholders in the Spokane Basin Innovations for Collaborative Modeling Conference, Lansing Michigan, June 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M., Beall King, A. Collaborative Modeling Experiences: Addressing Regional Water Resource Management Strategies. American Water Resource Association Annual Conference, Denver, CO, November 16, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M., Beall King, A. Collaborative Modeling in the Spokane River Basin. Academic Showcase, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, March 2016.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Thornton, M., K. Beall King, A. So, Really, Does Our Future Include Enough Water? Workshop at Spokane River Forum, Coeur dAlene, Idaho, March 24, 2016.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Garcia, E.S., C.L. Tague, J.C. Adam, and M.L. Liu, 2015. Resolution of climate data affects eco-hydrology model estimates more than redistribution of soil moisture in a western Oregon watershed, Ecological Modeling
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Allen, E., J. Stephens, G. Yorgey, C.E. Kruger, S. Aahamed, J. C. Adam, 2015. What do Agricultural Decision-Makers in the Northwest US Need to Know about Climate Change? Journal of Environmental Management
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Liu, M.L., J.C. Adam, Z. Zhu, and R. B. Myneni, 2015. Vegetation dynamics play a role in changing water fluxes over the conterminous U.S. during 1983-2009, J. Geophysical Research
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gould, G.K., M.L. Liu, M.E. Barber, K.A. Cherkauer, P.R. Robichaud, and J.C. Adam, 2015. The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed in the western U.S., J. Hydrology, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.02.025.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Adam, J.C., R. Hull, C.L. Tague, and M.L. Liu, 2016. Where should fine-resolution heterogeneity be captured within Earth system models? Observations and Modeling Across Scales: Symposium in Honor of Eric Wood. Princeton University, Jun. 2-3.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Adam, J.C., et al., 2016. Columbia Basin water and agriculture in a changing climate, Agriculture in a Changing Climate: Implications for Educators, Industry, and Producers Workshop. Kennewick, WA, Mar. 9-11.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Rushi, B., M. Barik, K. Rajagopalan, S.L. Lee, M. Brady, J. Petrie, M. Barber, and J.C. Adam, 2015. The impacts of the Columbia River Treaty scenarios on agriculture, hydropower production, and flood risk in a future climate. Northwest Climate Science Conference, Coeur dAlene, ID, Nov. 3-5.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Adam, J.C., R.E. Hull, C.L. Tague, J. Reyes, and M.L. Liu, 2015. Where should fine-resolution spatial heterogeneity be captured within Earth System Models, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Adam, J.C., 2015. Impacts of a changing climate on water resources availability and cropping systems. Washington State Tree Fruit Association (WSTFA) Annual Meeting. Yakima, WA, Dec. 7.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Malek K., J. Adam, M. Brady, 2015, when should irrigators invest in more water-efficient technologies as an adaptation to climate change?, American Society of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, Jul 17-20, Orlando, FL.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Harrison, J.A. B.R. Deemer, and M.K. Birchfield. Controls on reservoir methane ebullition: a case study, ASLO, Santa Fe, NM 6/2016.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Bellmore, R.A., J.A. Harrison, J.A. Needoba, E. Brooks, and C.K. Keller, (2015) Hydrologic control of dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen and dissolved organic matter quality in a semi-arid artificially drained agricultural catchment, Water Resources Research. 51, 81468164, 10.1002/2015WR016884.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Forney, W.M. Forney and J.A. Harrison, Improvements to the Nutrient Export form WaterSheds model in the Columbia River Basin, February 25th, 2016, Natural Science Research Graduate Symposium, Washington State University, Vancouver, WA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Forney, W.M. Forney and J.A. Harrison, Improvements to the Nutrient Export form WaterSheds model in the Columbia River Basin, February 24th, 2016, BioEarth/WISDM All-Hands meeting, , Washington State University, Pullman.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Harrison, J.A. Bubble Trouble: Water Level Management and Methane Emissions from Reservoirs in the Pacific Northwest Oregon State University Water Resources Graduate Group, Corvallis, OR, 1/2016.


Progress 08/15/14 to 08/14/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The extensive and two-way stakeholder interaction in the Spokane and Couer d'Alene corridor has involved a rich array of local public and private interests. Below is a list of stakeholders that have played a large role in the process. Guy Gregory and John Covert, Washington Department of Water Resources Neely Miller, Idaho Department of Water Resources Gary Stevens, Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Rob Lindsay and Mike Hermanson, Spokane County Water Resources Laura Laumatia, Coeur d'Alene Tribe of Indians Mike Galanate, North Kootenai County Water and Sewer Allen Wiley, Hayden Lake Irrigation District Paul Beacham, City of Post Falls Jeremy Jenkins, Liberty Lake Sewer and Water District Ty Wick, Spokane County Water District No. 3 Todd Henry, Vera Water and Power Andy Dunau, Spokane River Forum Tonilee Hanson, Spokane Aquifer Joint Board Pat Maher and Linda Kiefer, Avista Dale Ralston and Gary Johnson, Ralston Hydrologic Services Dan Sheer and Dean Randall, Hydrologic Consulting Firm Paul Klatt, JUB Engineers There has also been outreach efforts in the past 12 months related to the 2015 drought with irrigation district managers, Washington Department of Ecology, and Office of the Columbia River. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Water Quality Will Forney, a new WISDM-focused PhD student has been making progress toward his degree and has formed his committee and started formulating a thesis proposal. Datasets and model runs have been included in Cody Miller's MS thesis, which was completed in December, 2014. Hydrology There were ~5 engineering graduate students involved in WISDM, some funded through this NIFA grant, and others funded through other means but who were directly working on the WISDM project. Information obtained through the WISDM program was also disseminated through both graduate and undergraduate WSU courses, such as a graduate-level course in the interactions of climate and water resources (with implications for natural and agricultural management): "Hydroclimatology" in Civil and Environmental Engineering. Participatory Modeling Melanie Thornton, PhD student in the School of the Environment,has continued to play a key role in the Participatory Modeling work with a large stakeholder group in the Spokane and Couer d'Alene corridor. Economics Modeling Pitchayaporn Tantihkarnchana funded on WISDM in 2012-2013 has continued to work on rural residential development research as a large part of her dissertation. Xin Zhao has provided research support for the economics in the previous 12 months and has gained expertise in quantifying water quantities and curtailments in state water rights data. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Hydrology Group We have also had our students engage in a variety of activities, including their attendance at the 10thWashington Hydrogeology Symposium in Tacoma, WA; and attending a meeting organized by the Yakima valley groundwater management area advisory committee (GWAC) in April 2015 to communicate about the on-going research at WSU that maybe beneficial to the community in the Yakima area as well as looking for potential sources of observation data to use in the developed modeling framework. To develop collaborative potential (as well as disseminate WISDM results) across the WSU campus and the region, we coordinated with the BioEarth project to organize a community-wide open poster-session on the campus which attracted students and researches (from a large breadth of disciplines) from both WSU and the University of Idaho. This took place on Oct 7, 2014. Collaborative Modeling Group The Collaborative Modeling group has been the primary group for outreach and communication to the stakeholders of interest. The CM group attends monthly bi-state meetings, where the project goals, progress and accomplishments have been communicated to relevant stakeholders; meetings include the Idaho Washington Aquifer Collaborative, WA Water Resource Inventory Area, and SVRP Comprehensive Aquifer Management Group. Furthermore, we have spent a significant amount of time in the Spokane region to stay current and updated on regional water resources, which resulted in the development of new performance measures for the CM workshops (ex: WA Dept. of Ecology passed a new instream flow rule for the Spokane River). We have been collaborating extensively with the following stakeholders: Guy Gregory and John Covert, Washington Department of Water Resources Neely Miller, Idaho Department of Water Resources Gary Stevens, Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Rob Lindsay and Mike Hermanson, Spokane County Water Resources Laura Laumatia, Coeur d'Alene Tribe of Indians Mike Galanate, North Kootenai County Water and Sewer Allen Wiley, Hayden Lake Irrigation District Paul Beacham, City of Post Falls Jeremy Jenkins, Liberty Lake Sewer and Water District Ty Wick, Spokane County Water District No. 3 Todd Henry, Vera Water and Power Andy Dunau, Spokane River Forum Tonilee Hanson, Spokane Aquifer Joint Board Pat Maher and Linda Kiefer, Avista Dale Ralston and Gary Johnson, Ralston Hydrologic Services Dan Sheer and Dean Randall, Hydrologic Consulting Firm Paul Klatt, JUB Engineers Economics Group The economics group engaged in extensive communicationwith local and state agencies to communicate the types of information relating to the 2015 drought response that were critical to try and collect while effects were still visible over the summer. This involved discussing how drought modeling components are constructed. Also, research on the Columbia River Basin Treaty was presented at the Pacific Northwest Regional Economics Conference which is attended by a large number of private and public stakeholder groups. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Water Quality The NEWS model development team will continue to focus on regional downscaling of the NEWS model for water quality analysis. The CE-QUAL-W2 team iscurrently running the climate change scenario simulations for the Spokane River, and expect to get results very soon. Simulations will also be performed to assess changes in management practices to improve water quality in the Spokane River. Also, the CE-QUAL-W2 team has initiated discussions with NEWS modelers about how to incorporate findings into the watershed scale efforts. Participatory Modeling Continued stakeholder engagement is imperative and next year will focus on the SVRP OASIS model. Economics Modeling The economics group will focus the next 12 months communicating results from the rural residential land use change studies to demonstrate how forecasting of demand for this type of development will affect water rights management including adjudications and water market development. We will also continue to communicate with stakeholder groups to improve capacity to respond to drought. A meeting for December, 2015 has been planned between irrigation district managers, the Washington State Department of Ecology, and other stakeholder groups with Nicholas Brazovic and the private water trading company Mammoth Trading to explore adoption of that company'ssoftware to facilitate water trading within and between irrigation districts. We view this asthecritical need to reduce drought impacts in Washington in the medium to near term in that it is the most efficient in terms of reducing drought impacts relative to cost.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Water Quality Modeling (CE-QUAL-W2 and NEWS) CE-QUAL-W2 Our primary task is to evaluate the impacts of urbanization and climate change on nutrient loading in the Spokane River and determine how fine-scale modeling efforts can be used to assist large-scale watershed modeling efforts. CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.1 was used by the Washington State Department of Ecology to model the Spokane River during a portion of a historic low flow year (2001). For the purposes of this project, however, a longer time period was deemed necessary. Thus, we expanded the simulation period to a ten year window (1999 to 2009), so that we can investigate decisions regarding permissible nutrient levels that include a variety of hydrologic conditions.We have made considerable progress in development of the CE-QUAL-W2 model for the Spokane River. Required model input data were obtained from Ecology, USGS, Avista Utilities, City of Spokane, NCDC-NOAA, and AgriMet (U.S. Department of the Interior).Our efforts were focused on model predictions of hydrodynamics, temperature, and eutrophication model parameters (such as nitrate, ammonia, phosphate, dissolved oxygen,). We believe the model provides a good approximation of the major forcing processes and features of the system that affect water quality in the Spokane River. Our primary task involved evaluating the impacts of urbanization, population change and climate change on the nutrient loading in the Spokane River. To perform this, our final calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model is being used to simulate water quality changes in the Spokane River in response to various climate change and population growth scenarios. NEWS Building on recent work, we have continued to develop, test, and refine a dataset that includes regional N inputs to landscapes and aquatic ecosystems. These data have been used to drive, calibrate, and evaluate a newly developed regional DIN transport model: Nutrient Export from WaterSheds-Columbia River Basin (NEWS-CRB). This model has been executed and evaluated for recent past conditions (year 2000) and near-term future scenarios. In addition, we have begun to develop regionally downscaled versions of globally developed socioeconomic scenarios for likely inclusion in WISDM analyses. Hydrologic Modeling Group This group is performing detailed studies over the "WISDM-sheds": the Spokane, Yakima, Willamette, and Salmon River basins that span across a gradient of predominant drivers of change. In addition to that (and through leveraging another NIFA project - "BioEarth"), we are running Columbia Basin-scale models to inform many of the research questions in the WISDM project. We state accomplishments related to each of these efforts. Spokane River basin: In year 2, we conceptually designed an integrated modeling platform for the Spokane system that should capture the most important hydrologic processes in this system. This framework is comprised of the MODFLOW (Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model), PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) models. In year 3, we made progress in developing and calibrating the Spokane River and Spokane Valley Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer MODFLOW/VIC/PRMS combined modeling schematic. We collaborated to create, modify, and collect scripts that will allow us to link the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model's Spokane River and Little Spokane River stream flows estimates to the existing Modular Flow (MODFLOW) aquifer-river model. Yakima River basin: We have been implementing and applying multiple models (at multiple scales) over the Yakima River basin. The RHESSys model is being implemented at the fine resolution. In year 3, RHESSys was calibrated and validated with reasonably good results for three headwater catchments having different geological characteristics: (i) the American River near Nile, WA, (ii) the Yakima River at Martin, and (iii) Toppenish Creek near Fort Simcoe. These headwater catchments are important sources of surface water supply, groundwater recharge and, thus, groundwater supply for agricultural activities in the Yakima River Basin. Willamette River basin: We are in the process of developing a framework to upscale the RHESSys model for implementation over the large river basins, including the Willamette. The Willamette and Yakima River basins both are the test-watersheds for understanding this upscaling strategy. Running hydrologic simulations over large geographic regions is expensive in computation time. Upscaling reduces this cost by utilizing fewer computational elements. If the response curves of a model are linear and adjacent cells have the same slope, they can be averaged together directly into a single computational element without a redundancy of information that results in high computational requirements.We show that while calibration affects the absolute magnitude of the RHESSys model responses, changing calibration parameters does not affect the shape of the response curve. Salmon River basin: We submitted a paper for publication focused on the Salmon River basin, based upon work that was completed in year 2 of this project (Gould et al., 2015, submitted). Columbia River basin: Our regional-scale modeling tools are being applied to understand the impacts of potential revisions in the Columbia River Treaty (CRT). While others have studied implications on hydropower generation, flood control, and fish flows, the impacts on agriculture have been relatively under-studied. Our aim is to understand the impacts on agriculture relative to those on the other sectors. The Columbia Simulation Reservoir Model (ColSim) simulates water resources management systems with major reservoir and dam operations in the Columbia River Basin. Stakeholder Engagement Participatory Modeling Group: The Participatory Modeling group has developed a fully integrated surface and groundwater model, SVRP OASIS, which has been vetted by stakeholders with technical expertise. Performance measures have been developed by stakeholders (more information below), and the model is being used in an on-going series of collaborative workshops that engage a wide variety of water resources stakeholders in the basin to address regional water resources management strategies. Economics Group The economics group focused on two main areas over the past year. First, we analyzed the effect of the demand for rural residential housing on causing changes in water rights management institutions. This focus follows from an analysis of watersheds in Washington identifying where regulatory and legal institutions had or were in the process of undergoing the most significant changes in terms of defining and enforcing property rights over water. The consistent factor across such watersheds in counties including Kittitas, Skagit, and Okanogan are a dramatic increase in land use change into rural residential property. In order to better understand this dynamic a series of studies have been performed to construct house price indices for this regions and to then analyze their correlation with various factors including population, wealth, and income to be able to forecast demand. Three papers are being finalized for journal submission. The second area of focus for the economics group was in response to the 2015 drought which provided very important information on how farmers respond to reduced water budgets. Uncertainty over farm drought response is a major uncertainty so a rapid response to collecting as much data as possible was initiated. This includes analyzing remote sensing data, ground truthing acres fallowing, and collecting information on water leases. This data will be analyzed and directly used in integrated modeling of droughts.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2015 Citation: Bellmore, R.A., J.A. Harrison, J.A. Needoba, E. Brooks, and C.K. Keller, (In Press) Hydrologic control of dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen and dissolved organic matter quality in a semi-arid artificially drained agricultural catchment, Water Resources Research.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Deemer, B.R., S.M. Henderson, and J.A. Harrison, (2015) Chemical mixing in the bottom boundary layer of a eutrophic reservoir: the effects of internal seiching on nitrogen dynamics, Limnology and Oceanography, 1-24, doi: 10.1002/lno.10125.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Reyes, J.J., J. Schellberg, S. Siebert, M. Elsaesser, J.C. Adam, and F. Ewert, 2015. Refining estimates of nitrogen uptake in grasslands: Application of the nitrogen dilution curve, Agronomy for Sustainable Development, doi 10.1007/s13593-015-0321-2.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: St�ckle, C.O., A.R. Kemanian, R.L. Nelson, J.C. Adam, R. Sommer, B. Carlson, 2014. CropSyst model evolution: From field to regional to global scales and from research to decision support systems, Environmental Modeling and Software, 62, 361-369.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Adam, J.C., 2015. Scientific inputs to managing natural and agricultural resources in a changing climate. WSU Extension Agricultural and Natural Resources Unit Summer Meeting, Spokane, WA, Jul 22.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Adam, J.C., K. Rajagopalan, C.O Stockle, G. Yorgey, C.E. Kruger, K. Chinnayakanahalli, R. Nelson, 2014. Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin: incorporating water management. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Adam, J.C., C.L. Tague, M.L. Liu, E. Garcia, J. Reyes*, J. Choate, T. Mullis, R. Hull, J. Vaughan, A. Kalyanaraman, and T. Nguyen, 2014. Upscaling a catchment-scale ecohydrology model for regional-scale earth system modeling. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Adam, J.C, C.L. Tague, M.L. Liu, E. Garcia, K. Rajagopalan, S. H. Chung, X. Jiang, J. Harrison, T. Nergui, A. Guenther, C. Miller, J. Reyes, J. Choate, E.P. Salath�, C.O. St�ckle, 2014. Climate Model Bias and Land Surface Heterogeneity: Two Factors that Impact the Usefulness of Earth System Models for Natural Resource Management. CUAHSI biennial colloquium, Shepherdstown, WV, Jul. 28-30.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Baxter, J., J.C. Adam, T. Nguyen, M. Barik, A. Hossain, and M.E. Barber, 2015. Spokane River low flow trends and modeling in a changing environment, Universities Council on Water Resources Annual Conference, Henderson, NV, Jun. 16-18.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: McCrackin, M., J.A. Harrison, and J.E. Compton, (2014) Future riverine nitrogen export to US coastal regions: prospects for improving water quality amid future population growth, Journal of Environmental Quality, 10.2134/jeq2014.02.0081.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Gould, G.K., M.L. Liu, M.E. barber, K.A. Cherkauer, P.R. Robichaud, and J.C. Adam, 2015. The effects of climate change and extreme wildfire events on runoff erosion over a mountain watershed in the western U.S., J. Hydrology.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Liu, M.L., J.C. Adam, Z. Zhu, and R. B. Myneni, 2015. Vegetation dynamics play a role in changing water fluxes over the conterminous U.S. during 1983-2009, J. Geophysical Research
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Clark, M.P., Y. Fan, D.M. Lawrence, J.C. Adam, D. Bolster, M. Kumar, L.R. Leung, D. Scott Mackay, C. Shen, S.C. Swenson, X. Seng, et al, 2015. Improving the representation of hydrologic processes in Earth System Models, Water Resources Research, doi: 10.1002/2015WR017096.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Baxter, H., T. Nguyen, M. Barber, A. Hossain, and J.C. Adam, 2014. Impacts of future changes on groundwater recharge and low flow in highly-connected river-aquifer systems: A case study of the Spokane River and the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer. PNW Science Climate Conference, Seattle, WA, Sep. 9-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Malek, K., S. Claudio, J. Adam, R. Nelson, and M. Brady, 2015. When would irrigators invest in more water-efficient technologies as an adaptation to climate change? ASABE annual meeting, New Orleans, LA, Jul. 26-29.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Malek, K., J.C. Adam, J. Yoder, M. Brady, and C. Stockle, 2014. Informing sustainable irrigation management strategies in response to implementation of Washington States Yakima Basin Integrated Plan (YBIP). American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, Dec. 14-18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Malek, K., C.O. Stockle, J.C. Adam, R. Nelson, K. Chinnayakanahalli, and K. Rajagopalan, 2014. Impacts or irrigation management on water and energy fluxes over the Yakima River basin. PNW Science Climate Conference, Seattle, WA, Sep. 9-10.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Forney, W., and J.A. Harrison. Fine-scaled water quality modeling in the Pacific Northwest: Spatial Stream Networks, March 12th 2015, BioEarth Regional Earth Systems Modeling Project Stakeholder Workshop, Washington State University, Vancouver.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Forney, W., and J.A. Harrison. Fine-scaled water quality modeling in the Pacific Northwest: Spatial Stream Networks", March 2nd 2015, College of Arts and Sciences: Graduate Student Symposium, Washington State University, Vancouver.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Forney, W., and J.A. Harrison. Regionalization of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for Multi-Scaled Water Resource Management Investigations", Oct. 6th 2014, BioEarth All Hands Meeting, Washington State University, Pullman.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Forney, W., and J.A. Harrison. WISDM research integration: capabilities and research questions", Oct. 6th 2014, WISDM All Hands Meeting, Washington State University, Pullman.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Brady, M.P., T. Li, and J. Yoder. The Columbia River Basin from the Perspective of Contract Theory. Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education, vol. 155, issue 1.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Brady, M.P. and P. Tantihkarnchana. Estimating the Value of Water from Property Sales in an Arid High Environmental Amenity Region: A Difference-in-Difference Approach. Agriculture and Applied Economics Annual Meeting, San Francisco, CA, July, 2015.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Malek, K., J.C. Adam, C.O. Stockle, and R. Nelson, 2014. How does irrigation management change water and energy fluxes to the atmosphere. AMS conference on mountain meteorology, Portland, OR, Aug. 18-22.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Malek, K., C.O. Stockle, J.C. Adam, R. Nelson, and K. Chinnayakanahalli, 2014. Impacts or irrigation management on water and energy fluxes over the Yakima River basin. ASABE annual meeting, Montreal, Canada, Jul. 13-16.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2015 Citation: Forney, W., and J.A. Harrison. Water Quality Modeling: Global and Regional Scenarios, March 12th 2015, BioEarth Regional Earth Systems Modeling Project Stakeholder Workshop Washington State University, Vancouver.


Progress 08/15/13 to 08/14/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Stakeholder engagement through collaborative modeling in two of the four Columbia River basins is a major component of the WISDM project. The first two projects have focused on the Spokane and Yakima Basins. In year two the collaborative modeling effort in the Spokane built on the extensive work in year one, and is now moving towards completion for this project. This effort has been channeled through the existing stakeholder group the Spokane River Forum. There has been extensive stakeholder interaction for the purpose of model development. We have held meetings with stakeholders on a bi-monthly basis to develop suites of relevant simulation scenarios that include parameters such as Spokane River levels, SVRP aquifer levels, Lake Coeur d’Alene lake levels, population growth and conservation and the impacts on demand. The model is ready to integrate climate scenarios from PRMS. In year two we initiated our effort in the Yakima Basin. The effort this year was focused on interacting with state water management agencies and local irrigation district managers. These entities include The Office of the Columbia River of the Washington State Department of Ecology, Roza Irrigation District, Sunnyside Irrigation District, and Kittitas Reclamation District. A significant portion of our interaction with these management stakeholders has been around the modeling structure and output that they need to improve their ability to manage water resources. In year 3 we are beginning a more comprehensive stakeholder interaction with end point water users including municipalities, farmers, energy utilities, and environmental groups. Stakeholder organizations that have been an audience for the WISDM project this year are: Wa Dept of Ecology (ECY) Id Dept of Water Resources (IDWR) USGS NOAA region 10 Spokane County Water Resource Management Program City of Spokane Waste Water Management City of Spokane Environmental Programs Spokane Regional Health District North Kootenai County Water and Sewer District Hayden Lake Irrigation District Panhandle Health District SVRP Comprehensive Aquifer Management Group (CAMP) Watershed Inventory Area (WIRA) groups 54, 55, 56, and 57 Idaho Washington Aquifer Committee (IWAC) Spokane River Forum Corporate: Avista Inland Empire Paper NGO: Inland Northwest Land Trust Inland Northwest Water Resources Center for Environmental Justice Consultants: HydroLogics JUB Engineering Fusion Environment and Energy Water Now Services and SolutionsWa Dept of Ecology (ECY) Changes/Problems: Hydrologic Modeling Group: As described in section IV for this group, we have made changes to the models that we have chosen to perform the hydrologic simulations over the “WISDM-sheds” with a more sophisticated set of integrated models than we had proposed. Capturing the important processes that drive the response of these watersheds to changes in climate and human activities necessitated these change. Therefore, as described above, we are using an integrated system involving MODFLOW, PRMS, and VIC for the Spokane System. For the Yakima System, we are using MODFLOW, RHESSys, and YAKRW. For the Salmon System, we utilized VIC and WEPP. We had originally proposed to use DHSVM for each of these. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The Participatory Modeling group has been the primary outlet for communicating results to communities of interest. This process occurs by incorporating components of the more complex hydrologic, economic, and biogeochemical models into the participatory models which the stakeholders directly interact with. This interaction is not just one way. The input from the stakeholder groups has fed back into the choices about model development. For instance, the WISDM Water Trading model is an outcome of trying to address the uncertainty over the extent to which water trading can mitigate droughts as opposed to water storage enhancement projects. Hydrologic and modeling research goals and accomplishments have been communicated to relevant stakeholders at group meetings and presentations, including an Idaho Washington Aquifer Conference. We have also been collaborating with agency representatives, such as Ken Neely of the Idaho Department of Water Resources. Furthermore, our students have spent time in the field of the Spokane system, trying to collect basic information to inform some of the key decisions regarding designing the integrated modeling framework. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Year 3 will continue to focus on model development of the economic, hydrologic, and biogeochemical models in isolation, but then also incorporating aspects of these models into the participatory modeling tools. The project will also progress but more extensive work in the Yakima Basin while also initating efforts to be completed in the last two years of the project in the other WISDM watersheds: the Willamette and the Salmon River.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? A significant component of WISDM is the development of new models and the improvement of existing models in a way that can be directly incorporated into the stakeholder engagement. Stakeholder Engagement Participatory Modeling Group: The Participatory Modeling group has focused on the development of Oasis. This has occurred through extensive stakeholder outreach meetings as described elsewhere in the report. Economics group: This model was written in the programming language Python and uses the IPython Notebook framework which has been rapidly adopted across disciplines as an innovative new to develop models but also display model components and output. The model development has moved to GitHub to make it a community model that allows others not in the group to make additions. The model structure to date is limited to the Yakima Basin but will be expanded to all of Central Washington in year 3. The key characteristic of the model that is a significant improvement on market decision making tools available today is that it uses economic theory to consider potential trades rather than historical precedent. The model also explicitly accounts for trading frictions that are critical for accurate predictions like upstream trading. Institutional frictions are also incorporated such as those related to Tribal water rights. The model seeks to improve the capacity for water users to leverage water markets to minimize the impacts of drought in Washington where droughts are infrequent enough to have prevented the development of a robust institutional capacity to facilitate water trading. Biogeochemical group: Water quality modeling is being addressed through two models, CE-QUAL-W2 and NEWS. For CE-QUAL-W2 our primary tasks are to evaluate the impacts of urbanization and climate change on the impacts of nutrient loading and determine how fine-scale modeling efforts can be used to assist large-scale watershed modeling efforts. CE-QUAL-W2 Version 3.1. The original Spokane River CE-QUAL-W2 model developed TMDLs developed using a model for low flow condition may not accurately reflect nutrient cycling initiated by high flow years, as critical nutrients levels are expected to enter the system during high flow events and may reside there for years. We have made considerable progress in further development of the CE-QUAL-W2 model for the Spokane River. In order to reduce simulation time, we have successfully reduced the vertical cells by half without significantly affecting the model results. This reduces the run time required for multiple year simulations. We have collected additional flow, reservoir level, and water quality data to allow us to calibrate the model for this extended period. Simulations have been performed to investigate model sensitivity to various input parameters. Data required to extend the model inputs have been obtained from Ecology, USGS, Avista Utilities, City of Spokane, NCDC-NOAA, and AgriMet (U.S. Department of the Interior). For the NEWS model, we have continued to develop, test, and refine a dataset that includes various N inputs to landscapes and aquatic ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. These data have been used to drive, calibrate, and evaluate a newly developed regional DIN transport model: Nutrient Export from WaterSheds-Columbia River Basin (NEWS-CRB). This model has been executed and evaluated for recent past conditions (year 2000) and near-term future scenarios. We have made substantial progress investigating the potential for integration of NEWS and CEQUAL-W2 models, using the Yakima River Basin as a test case. In addition, we have begun to develop regionally downscaled versions of globally developed socioeconomic scenarios for likely inclusion in WISDM analyses. Hydrologic Group The Hydrologic Modeling Group has made significant improvements to model development covering all 4 WISDM watersheds. These developments are listed below by basin. 1. Spokane River basin: Because the finer-resolution modeling over the specific watersheds is being performed to understand the processes that are controlling how the system responds to both human and climate-induced change, we have designed an integrated modeling platform for the Spokane system that should capture the most important hydrologic processes in this system. This framework is comprised of the MODFLOW (Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Groundwater Flow Model), PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), and VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) models. We are utilizing an existing MODFLOW set-up for this system, but including the capability to simulate changes in surface-groundwater interactions in response to climate change, as well as changes in human activities, such as land use, pumping rates, etc. VIC provides the streamflow contributions from the upland portions of the basins – an area that is especially sensitive to warming due to its snowpack influence on hydrograph seasonality. PRMS is a fine-resolution that will be used to provide inflow from the side tributaries as well as changes in recharge rates over the aquifer itself. 2. Yakima River basin: Similarly, as with the Spokane system, capturing the important hydrologic processes in the Yakima system will necessitate an integrated set of models. This will involve MODFLOW, the Yakima Riverware (YAKRW) model for water management. Instead of either of the VIC or PRMS models, we will be utilize the RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System) model for the finer-resolution hydrologic modeling over the Yakima Basin. Initially, this new framework will be able used to assess the potential impacts of climate change (and associated changes in agricultural water demand) on surface water vulnerability due to supplemental pumping and related surface-groundwater interactions. However, RHESSys is also a biogeochemistry model (it simulations the coupled interactions of water, carbon, and nitrogen). While RHESSys was originally developed as a forest model, we have made significant progress in simulated grasses and cropland systems. This framework can therefore eventually be used to explore the co-management of irrigation and fertilizer on implications for both surface and groundwater nitrate loading in the Yakima system. Currently, we are calibrating the RHESSys model over a set of small sub-basins in the Yakima. We are testing a well-known global optimization code CMA-ES (Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy) to reduce the total time used in model calibration. We are also developing Kepler workflows to be able to implement RHESSys at watershed and regional scales. The Yakima is one of the early test-cases for this framework. 3. Willamette River basin: While the Spokane and Yakima Basins are the two that we are primarily focusing on for the WISDM project, we are in the process of developing a framework to upscale the RHESSys model for implementation over the Willamette River basin as well. We have two small sites in the area that are being used for understanding the scales that are required to adequately capture heterogeneity that drives the aggregate response of the watershed to changes in climate or human activities. 4. Salmon River basin: The dynamic that we have been investigating in the Salmon River basin (given that it is our primarily climate-impacted watershed) is related to climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and water quality, with a focus on how climate change is projected to impact the generation of post-fire erosion and sediment to streams. This study also used an integrated modeling framework that involved VIC for the hydrology and the WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) for post-fire erosion. Because erosion processes are very fine in spatial scale, we retain WEPP simulations at their native very fine resolutions (hillslope-scale) and drive these simulations with runoff production from the coarser-scale VIC model.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Liu, M., K. Rajagopalan, S. H. Chung, X. Jiang, J. Harrison, T. Nergui, A. Guenther, C. Miller, J. Reyes, C. Tague, J. Choate, E. P. Salath�, C. O. St�ckle, and J. C. Adam, (2014) What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?, Biogeosciences, 11, 2601-2622.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Adam, J.C., K. Rajagopalan, K. Chinnayakanahalli, M. Brady, C. Stockle, and C. Kruger. Integrated modeling for natural and agricultural resource management, University Coalition on Water Resources (UCOWR), Lake Tahoe, NV, Jun. 11, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Adam, J.C., J.C. Stephens, S.H. Chung, M.P. Brady, R.D. Evans, C.E. Kruger, B.K. Lamb, M.L. Liu, C.O. St�ckle, J.K. Vaughan, K. Rajagopalan, J.A. Harrison, C.L. Tague, A. Kalyanaraman, Y. Chen, A. Guenther, F.Y. Leung, L.R. Leung, A.B. Perleberg, J. Yoder, E. Allen, S. Anderson, B. Chandrasekharan, K. Malek, T. Mullis, C. Miller, T. Nergui, J. Poinsatte, J. Reyes (presenting), J. Zhu, J.S. Choate, X. Jiang, R. Nelson, J.H. Yoon, G.G. Yorgey, K.J. Chinnayakanahalli, A.F. Hamlet, B. Nijssen, BioEarth: A regional biosphere-relevant earth system model to inform agricultural and natural resource management decisions. 4th annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference, Portland, OR, Sep. 5-6, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Mullis. T., Mingliang Liu, Ananth Kalyanaraman, Joseph K. Vaughan and Jennifer C. Adam, Demonstration of Kepler workflows for efficient management of eco-hydrologic model simulations over the Pacific Northwest region. Poster presented at Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference, The Governor Hotel, Portland, Oregon, 5-6 September 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Nguyen, T., and H. Baxter. The Spokane River: Low Flow Trends and Modeling Under a Changing Environment. Idaho Washington Aquifer Collaborative Meeting, Liberty Lake, WA, June 10, 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Rajagopalan, K. and J.C. Adam. Integrated Modeling over the Pacific Northwest Region for Sustainable Natural and Agricultural Resource Management. Invited presentation., AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference, Portland, OR, November 4-7, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Rajagopalan, K., K. Chinnayakanahalli, C. Stockle, C. Kruger and J.C. Adam. Food for Thought: Crop Yields in the Columbia River Basin in an Altered Future. Poster presented at AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA. December 9-13, 2013.
  • Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Gould, G., Large-scale simulation of the effects of climate change on runoff erosion following extreme wildfire events, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Miller, C.C. and J.A. Harrison. Early results from an effort to downscale a global dissolved inorganic nitrogen model to achieve a regional assessment of nitrogen dynamics in the Columbia River basin. Poster presented at the Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference. Portland, OR. September 5-6, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Miller, C.C. and J.A. Harrison. Early results from an effort to downscale a global dissolved inorganic nitrogen model to achieve a regional assessment of nitrogen dynamics in the Columbia River basin. Poster presented at AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA. December 9-13, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Miller, C.C. and J.A. Harrison. Modelling Nitrogen Dynamics in the Columbia River Basin. Poster presented at the annual all-hands meeting of the Bio Earth Project.


Progress 08/15/12 to 08/14/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Targeted Audience through our Stakeholder Workshops: Stakeholder engagement through collaborative modeling in two of the four Columbia River basins is a major component of the WISDM project. We are approaching stakeholder engagement in two stages, first initiating collaborative modeling with an existing stakeholder group (the Spokane River Forum) in year one and secondly, joining an ongoing program to develop an integrated water management plan in the Yakima basin in Year two. Year one WISDM stakeholder meetings were designed to bring together stakeholders for the purpose of collaborative modeling and begin development of the model. We concentrated efforts in the Spokane River Basin and began making contacts in the Yakima River Basin in anticipation of beginning collaborative work in Yakima in 2014. In Spokane, we conducted 12 small group meetings with diverse stakeholders including individuals from 21 organizations including state, county, city and power system officials, water district managers, hydrologic consultants, non-governmental organizations and tribal representatives from both Washington and Idaho. Workshops involved sharing the mission and framework of the WISDM iterative modeling project and gaining stakeholder input into the preliminary collaborative systems dynamics model. Additionally, WISDM was a major organizer in the annual Spokane River Forum meeting which was held in March 2013. WISDM PIs led an interactive outreach session at the forum where a total of 114 participants used an anonymous digital response tool to answer questions related to immediate and future needs for water planning in the basin. Break-out sessions at the forum meeting were conducted to gain stakeholder input on how university resources, such as those from WISDM, can be applied to local, bi-state, collaborative needs. Organizations represented include the following: Government/Public Sector: Wa Dept of Ecology (ECY) Id Dept of Water Resources (IDWR) Spokane County Water Resource Management Program City of Spokane Waste Water Management City of Spokane Environmental Programs Spokane Regional Health District North Kootenai County Water and Sewer District Hayden Lake Irrigation District Panhandle Health District SVRP Comprehensive Aquifer Management Group (CAMP) Watershed Inventory Area (WIRA) groups 54, 55, 56, and 57 Spokane River Forum Lake Roosevelt Forum Private sector: Avista Inland Empire Paper NGO: Inland Northwest Land Trust Inland Northwest Water Resources Center for Environmental Justice Consultants: JUB Engineering Fusion Environment and Energy Water Now Services and Solutions Graduate and Undergraduate Education: There were 8 graduate students involved in WISDM, some funded through this NIFA grant and others funded through other projects. Graduate student Tung Nguyen was able to attend two training sessions with WISDM support: a one-week training (Mar. 11-15, 2013) on Groundwater and Surface-water FLOW model (GSFLOW) with Matt Ely (USGS Tacoma) and a second modeling training session with Akram Hossain (WSU Tri-Cities, July 17-20, 2013). The research approach and early results obtained through WISDM were included in WSU graduate and undergraduate courses on the Pullman, TriCities and Vancouver campuses. Examples of this are educating students on integrated biophysical modeling in the Soils 544 Nitrogen Cycling course that was associated with our nitrogen cycling IGERT program co-taught by PDs Adam, Harrison, Keller and Orr, WISDM examples used in ENVR SCI 430 Systems Dynamics and information about how biophysical modeling informs global and regional biogeochemistry in ENVR SCI 469 Ecosystem Ecology and Global Change taught by PD Orr. The economics of irrigated farm management with hydrology and climate came through two undergraduate courses at WSU in sections covering irrigation management and investment planning: EconS 350, Introduction to Farm and Ranch Management; EconS 450, Advanced Farm and Ranch Management, both taught by Co-PD Brady. Other Outreach Activities: A press-release about the joint efforts of the WISDM modeling effort and the BioEarth modeling effort (another NIFA project) was created and disseminated to many stakeholders and media outlets in the Columbia Basin. A short video interview with PD Cailin Huyck Orr about WISDM was created by WSU and posted on the WSU news website as well as on YouTube. PD Cailin Huyck Orr did an interview with Northwest Public Radio about the WISDM project goals and opportunities for stakeholder participation. This was broadcast on NWPR across the region. We have a peer review framework established for our project in which we aim to invite 3-4 individuals annually in years 2-4 to WSU or a collaborating institution to meet with WISDM faculty and students, give a seminar on a WISDM-relevant topic, and evaluate our progress towards WISDM goals. We have currently scheduled 3 of these review visits for year 2. We also presented WISDM research at a number of conferences, workshops and seminars outlined in the products section. Changes/Problems: The original plan was to employ the coupled model GSFLOW across the Spokane River Basin. However, because the depth to water table in the whole Spokane Valley Prairie Aquifer is quite deep (more than 15 m over most of the aquifer), the impacts of groundwater level dynamics on surface water processes (evapotranspiration, soil moisture, runoff generation) will not be significant. Moreover, running the coupled model (GSFLOW) at daily time step will be slow. We decided to switch to one-way coupling approach: (i) run the PRMS model at daily timestep and aggregate the results into monthly timestep; (ii) run the MODFLOW model at monthly timestep using the inputs from PRMS model. More effort than originally planned for is required to apply the PRMS model due to the preprocessing tools being underdevelopment. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? These are described in the graduate and undergraduate education section of the Target Audience response. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The goals and preliminary efforts of the WISDM projects were discussed with stakeholders at the stakeholder engagement workshops and open forum as outlined above. PDs and graduate students presented results at a variety of meetings including national and regional conferences, as well as on campuses across the Columbia River Basin. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Collaborative Modeling We wil continue collaborative modeling efforts in the Spokane River Basin including vetting and improving the existing hydrologic model for the basin and beginning to address stakeholder questions with scenario runs of the model. Conduct sensitivity testing for the Stella model and communicate with the WISDM integrated biophysical modeling team about what the first feedbacks between the collaborative model and the numeric models will be. We will begin collaborative modeling work in the Yakima Basin. We have established communication with an existing stakeholder group in Yakima that has been integrally involved in the development of an existing integrated plan for water development in the basin. Hydrologic working group: In the next year we will add focus to the hydrologic models for the Yakima River Basin. This includes surface water, groundwater model development and coupling between them. We will develop a Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model for the Yakima River Basin. There is an existing MODFLOW groundwater model developed by USGS Tacoma for the Yakima River Basin. Graduate student Tung Nguyen will participate in an internship at USGS Tacoma with mentor Matthew Bachmann to learn this model and begin adapting it for WISDM. Then, we will setup a framework to couple RHESSys and MODFLOW to take into account surface water – groundwater interaction. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrological model development, calibration and validation will continue in year two. This work will be aided by the addition of a new graduate student to the WISDM team who is working on methodology to determine attribution of reduction of late summer low flows in the basin. Another major effort of the hydrologic working group is continue ongoing integration between WISDM efforts and ongoing modeling advances made by the NIFA funded modeling effort BioEarth that is conducting the model development we will employ within WISDM. Additionally, coordination between the hydrologic modeling being conducted with numeric modeling and the complementary modeling being done as part of the collaborative modeling within WISDM is something on which we are actively working. As the CM model is finished and tested, we are planning for iterative interactions between CM and numeric modeling runs. Biogeochemical group: We will complete our regional NEWS-DIN model for the Columbia River Basin. This includes finishing pulling together nitrogen input datasets, recalculating reservoir retention and hydrology components, and calibrating, evaluating, and correcting the model. When these activities are complete, we plan to test the model’s effectiveness when incorporating a wetland/riparian zone. We will also finalize the spatial data sets (e.g., land-use and land-cover, meteorological data, vegetation and soil vegetation infrastructure pools for initializing models) for BioEarth project, which includes the metadata data and cyberinfrastructure for data storage and distribution. This work will be aided by the addition of two new graduate students to the WISDM team. One, who started in August 2013, will be using the model CE-Qual-W2 to model reach-scale nutrient dynamics, first in the Spokane River. Eventually the reach-scale models will lead to better parameterization of the larger-scale models. The second student will help ongoing efforts to downscale Global-NEWS to the sub-basins within the Columbia River Basin.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Collaborative Modeling accomplishments: As our collaborative modeling efforts are tightly coupled with stakeholder engagement, the accomplishments of the collaborative modeling working group are outlined in the target audience section above. Briefly: 12 small meetings and 1 large meeting were conducted with stakeholders from 21 organizations in the Spokane River Basin. From these meetings, stakeholder interests and concerns about water availability, quality and equity were documented. The first iteration of a collaborative hydrologic model for the basin was built in the programming software Stella with significant stakeholder input. We began the process of vetting this model with stakeholders. Initial contacts with stakeholder organizations in the Yakima basin were made in anticipation of forming collaborative modeling relationships there in year two. Members of the collaborative modeling and outreach teams within WISDM attended open forum meetings in the Yakima basin. Hydrologic modeling accomplishments: We made progress in development of spatial data sets and integrated hydrologic/atmospheric model application over the conterminous US. We combined the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2006, which was generated from Landsat TM/ETM images and has 30 meter resolution, with USDA Crop Data Layer (CDL) 2011 data sets and other spatial data sets to develop a consistent land use and land cover map for driving modeling systems (RHESSys, VIC, MEGAN, and WRF). We applied the VIC model to investigate how vegetation changes and climate variability affect the evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture during the 1983-2009 time period over the US. Specifically for the Willamette Basin, one of our four subbasins of interest to WISDM and the basin most impacted by urban and agricultural land uses, we collected the data sets including DEM with 1-arcsec (~30 meter) resolution, 5 arc-minute resolution soil texture, leaf area index, and 1/16th arc-degree of historical meteorological and 4-km resolution statistical downscaled future climate data for running RHESSys and VIC. For model validation and application, continuous work is being conducted for this regional-scale run. With assistance from BioEarth funded graduate assistant Julian Reyes, we are improving RHESSys in modeling managed pasture ecosystems and testing the model over a Konza Prairie site. For the Spokane basin where urban expansion and groundwater pumping are thought to be of most concern in future climates, we moved forward on coupling surface and groundwater models to better predict river low flows in dry years or with changes in pumping. The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) hydrological model was built at a daily time step for the Spokane River Basin. Model calibration and validation was begun and will continue in year two. Progress was made building a MODFLOW 2005 groundwater model for the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie Aquifer. Graduate student Tung Nguyen participated in two separate training sessions with model developers. He is converting an existing groundwater model developed by Hsieh et al. (2007) from MODFLOW-2000 to MODFLOW-2005. Communication with model authors to attain inputs for running the model under current conditions as well modification for future runs including inputs for recharge from precipitation, tributary flow, irrigation return flow, septic system leakage rates, pumping rates and Spokane River geometry is ongoing. Biogeochemical modeling accomplishments: We delineated sub-basins of the Columbia River Basin to be used in a regional nutrient export model adapted from the Global Nutrient Export from WaterSheds (Global NEWS) model. Downscaling of the landscape-scale Global NEWS model to the 4 sub-basins is a major goal within WISDM. We built a data set of nutrient mass flux across the sub-basins with nutrient concentration data from the USGS and corresponding flow measurements. Most significantly, we have also run a regionally downscaled version of the NEWS-DIN model using global-scale nitrogen inputs and have started to develop finer scale nitrogen input datasets for the Columbia River basin and its corresponding sub-basins. Economics working group accomplishments: Year one economics research focused on integration of the economics and the law initiatives within WISDM led by Mike Brady and Barbara Cosens, respectively. This collaboration has led to the development of two new datasets. The first consists of a legal record compilation for each of the Columbia River Basin states (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana) of important components of how property rights over water are defined in relation to consumptive use, diversion quantities, transfers, and third party effects. These components vary by state. This database will be used to improve economic modeling to determine the capacity of water transfers to overcome water scarcity problems, and how this capacity changes across the 4 sub-basins of the WISDM project. The second dataset constructed is a record of water rights adjudications in Washington which have not occurred evenly across the state. This information is a necessary step in the WISDM economics/law group initiative to analyze the political and economic conditions that have led to adjudications. Adjudications fully define property rights over water. This is typically a necessary step in the development of water markets. Multiple papers using both of these new datasets are expected to be submitted in the next year.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Baron, J.S., E.K. Hall, B.T. Nolan, J.C. Finlay, E. Bernhardt, J.A. Harrison, F. Chan, and E.W. Boyer. 2012. The interactive effects of human-derived nitrogen loading and climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the United States, Biogeochemistry. DOI 10.1007/s10533-012-9788-y.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Deemer, B., K.E. Goodwin, K. Birchfield, K. Dallavis, J. Emerson, D. Freeman, E. Henry, T. Lee, L. Wynn, and J.A. Harrison. 2012. Elevated nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in urbanizing southwest Washington streams. Northwest Science. 86(4):237-247.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Davidson, E.A., M.B. David, J.N. Galloway, C.L. Goodale, R. Haeuber, J.A. Harrison, R.W. Howarth, D. Jaynes, R. Lowrance, B.T. Nolan, J.L. Peel, R. Pinder, E. Porter, C.S. Snyder, A.R. Townsend, M.H. Ward, P. Whitney. 2012. Minimizing Releases and Impacts of Excess Nitrogen in the Environment, Issues in Ecology. 15:1-16.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2012 Citation: Harrison, J.A., P. Frings, A.H.W. Beusen, D.J. Conley, and *M.L. McCrackin. 2012. Global importance, patterns, and controls of dissolved silica retention in lakes and reservoirs, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, doi:10.1029/2011GB004228.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Jacobs, A., and J.A. Harrison, (Submitted) The effects of floating vegetation on denitrification,nitrogen retention, and greenhouse gas production in wetland microcosms, Biogeochemistry.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2014 Citation: Liu, M., L.C. Adam, Z. Zhu, R. Myneni, (under inner review). Effects of vegetation activities and climate change on evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture over the conterminous US during 1983-2009 (to be submitted to Geophysical Research Letters).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Liu, M., K. Rajagopalan, S. H. Chung, X. Jiang, J. Harrison, T. Nergui, A. Guenther, C. Miller, J. Reyes, C. Tague, J. Choate, E.P. Salath�, C.O. St�ckle, and J. C. Adam, (Submitted) What it is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes? Climatic Change.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: McCrackin, M., J.A. Harrison, and J.E. Compton, (Submitted) Factors influencing seasonal export of dissolved inorganic nitrogen by major rivers, Global Biogeochemical Cycles.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2013 Citation: McCrackin, M., J.A. Harrison, and J.E. Compton, (Submitted) Future riverine nitrogen export to US coastal regions: prospects for improving water quality amid future population growth, Earths Future
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: McCrackin, M., J.A. Harrison, and J.E. Compton, 2013. A comparison of NEWS and SPARROW models to understand sources of nitrogen delivered to US coastal Areas, Biogeochemistry, doi:10.1007/s10533-012-9809-x.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Sobota, D.J., J.E. Compton, and J.A. Harrison, (Submitted) Past and present contributions of crop biological nitrogen fixation to reactive nitrogen loading in the United States, Ecological Applications.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Sobota D.J., J.E. Compton, and J.A. Harrison. 2013. Reactive nitrogen in the United States: How certain are we about sources and fluxes? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. doi:10.1890/110216
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Yoder, E. Allen, S. Anderson, B. Chandrasekharan, K. Malek, T. Mullis, C. Miller, T. Nergui, J. Poinsatte, J. Reyes, J. Zhu, J.S. Choate, X. Jiang, R. Nelson, J.H. Yoon, G.G. Yorgey, K.J. Chinnayakanahalli, A.F. Hamlet, B. Nijssen. (Submitted) BioEarth: A Regional Biosphere-Relevant Earth System Model to Inform Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Decisions. Climatic Change
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Beall-King, A., M.A.L.Thornton. 2013. Collaborative modeling in the Columbia River Basin: First stop, the Spokane Valley Prairie Aquifer system. American Water Resource Association Annual Conference, Portland OR.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Beall-King, A., M.A.L.Thornton, K. Trebitz. 2013. Collaborative modeling in the Columbia River Basin: Creating Opportunities for Exploring Innovative Groundwater Governance. American Water Resource Association Annual Conference, Portland OR.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Beall-King, A., M.A.L.Thornton. 2013. Teaching top-down modeling to bottoms-up thinkers: A report from the initial phase of a collaborative watershed modeling project. International System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, MA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2012 Citation: Jacobs, A., and J.A. Harrison, J. 2012. The Effect of Azolla on Denitrification and Greenhouse Gas Production in Wetlands. Washington State University  Vancouver Research Showcase
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Jacobs, A, J.A. Harrison. 2013. The effect of floating vegetation on denitrification and greenhouse gas production in wetlands: What mesocosms can tell us, February 22, presentation at Washington State University  Vancouver Research Symposium, Vancouver, WA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Liu, M., J.C. Adam, C. Tague 2013. Scaling in Global Change Studies, Ignite Session 17, 98th Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting, Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Martin, RA and J.A. Harrison. 2013. Hydrologic connectivity in a tile-drained agricultural field: Implications for dissolved organic matter export to streams. Vancouver Research Showcase, Vancouver, WA. April 18.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Miller, C., and J.A. Harrison 2013. Modeling dissolved inorganic nitrogen flux on a regional scale: preliminary results.WSUV Research Showcase
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Orr, C.H., J. Adam, A. Beall. 2013. Improving future water use planning in the Columbia River Basin by linking interdisciplinary earth system modeling with collaborative stakeholder modeling. Society for Freshwater Science, Jacksonville, FL
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2012 Citation: Orr, C.H., J. Adam, A. Beall, M. Barber and T. Nguyen. 2012. Using Linked Models to Study Interactions Between Water Use Decisions and Climate Change-Driven Watershed Processes in the Pacific Northwest Region. American Geophysical Union. San Francisco, CA.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2012 Citation: Thiers, P., Chang, H., Singh, S., Yeakley, A., Bollens, S., Harrison, J., Rollwagen-Bollens, G., Netusil, N., Kincaid, M., & Walker, A. 2012. Effects of Land Cover and Governance on Water Quality in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area. Urban Ecology and Conservation Symposium, Portland, OR.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2012 Citation: Yeakley, A., Duncan, S., Bollens, S., Ozawa, C., Shandas, V., Chang, H., Dresner, M., Gordon, S., Harrison, J., Kline, J., Morzillo, A., Netusil, N., Rollwagen-Bollens, G., Stephan, M., & Thiers, P. 2012. Portland-Vancouver ULTRA-Ex: Evaluating relationships between governance and environmental quality in urban ecosystems. Ecological Society of American Annual Meeting, Portland, OR.