Progress 05/16/12 to 05/15/14
Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience for this project is the following: • General Public • Local farmers and rural communities, including small and minority farmers, farm workers • Transportation system and authorities • Academic audience especially professionals in the field of agribusiness and international trade. Changes/Problems: The project team had a hard time finding transportation cost data from different originations to various destinations especially when the data involves international sources. Since southern states produce limited amount of corn, and a small proportion will be used for export, we examined other agricultural products whose export could be positively impacted by the PCE. We identified peaches as one possibility since both South Carolina and Georgia produce significant amount of peaches, and a large portion of the peaches are exported to other counties. Increased peach export will definitely stimulate local economies through more employment opportunities and higher wages/salaries. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has provided great opportunities for training and professional development for the professor and the students: 1) “Transaction Cost and U.S. Corn Exports”, Guohua Ma, the 13th International Business and Economics (IBEC) Conference, Tianjin, China, Jan 2014. 2) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Guohua Ma, 50th Annual meeting of the Academy of Economics and Finance, Mobile, AL, Feb 2013. 3) "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States - Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions", Guohua Ma, LaKeethia Curry and Austin James, 43rd Annual meeting of the Southeast Decisions Sciences in Charleston SC, Feb 2013. 4) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Johnny Wilson, the 71 Professional Agricultural Workers Conference (PAWC), Tuskegee, AL, Dec 2013. 5) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, LaKeethia Curry, the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD, Jacksonville, FL, April 2013. 6) “Panama Canal Expansion (PCE), Toll Increase and Impact on U.S. Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, poster presentation by Austin James, the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD, Jacksonville, FL, April 2013. 7) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Johnny Wilson, 29th Minorities in Agriculture National Resources and Related Sciences (MANNRS) annual conference, Birmingham, AL, March 28, 2014. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The research team has done various presentations at various national and regional conferences to disseminate the research results to academic and professional communities. We printed handouts and disseminated to the audience at each of the presentations. 1) “Transaction Cost and U.S. Corn Exports”, Guohua Ma, the 13th International Business and Economics (IBEC) Conference, Tianjin, China, Jan 2014. 2) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Guohua Ma, 50th Annual meeting of the Academy of Economics and Finance, Mobile, AL, Feb 2013. 3) "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States - Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions", Guohua Ma, LaKeethia Curry and Austin James, 43rd Annual meeting of the Southeast Decisions Sciences in Charleston SC, Feb 2013. 4) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Johnny Wilson, the 71 Professional Agricultural Workers Conference (PAWC), Tuskegee, AL, Dec 2013. 5) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, LaKeethia Curry, the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD, Jacksonville, FL, April 2013. 6) “Panama Canal Expansion (PCE), Toll Increase and Impact on U.S. Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, poster presentation by Austin James, the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD, Jacksonville, FL, April 2013. 7) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Johnny Wilson, 29th Minorities in Agriculture National Resources and Related Sciences (MANNRS) annual conference, Birmingham, AL, March 28, 2014. The team has published one conference: "The Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States - Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions”, Ma, G., Curry, L. and James, A., Southeast Decision Science, Feb 2013. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
1) The research team did a literature review which introduced the importance of the proposed research area to the general public. The research examines the potential impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on exports and job opportunities related to rural farmers and transportation system. 2) The team has developed the basic Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to predict regional corn exports. Based on the previous literature, we identified the following regression model: USX = a0 +a1*USS +a2*USN +a3*USC+a4*ROWS+a5*ROWN+a6*ROWX+a7*ROWC+a8*PC+a9*SHC where USX is U.S. corn exports; USS is ending stocks in the U.S.; USN is the number of live animals in the U.S.; USC is the total domestic consumption in the U.S.; ROWS is ending stocks in the rest of the world; ROWN is the number of live animals in the rest of the world; ROWX is rest-of-world corn exports; ROWC is the total consumption in the rest of the world; PC is the U.S.corn price, and SHC is the transportation costs associated with corn exporting. 3) The team has also built the following time series regression model: USXt=a0+a1*USSt-1+a2*USNt-1+a3*USCt-1+a4*ROWSt-1+a5*ROWNt-1+a6*ROWXt-1 +a7*ROWCt-1+a8*PCt+a9*SHCt where USXt is U.S. corn exports at time t; USSt-1 is ending stocks in the U.S. at time t-1; USNt-1 is the number of live animals in the U.S. at time t-1; USCt-1 is the total domestic consumption in the U.S. at time t-1; ROWSt-1 is ending stocks in the rest of the world at time t-1; ROWNt-1 is the number of live animals in the rest of the world at time t-1; ROWXt-1 is rest-of-world corn exports at time t-1; ROWCt-1 is total consumption in the rest of the world at time t-1; PCt is the U.S.corn price at time t; and SHCt is the transportation costs associated with corn exporting at time t (we use crude oil price to represent shipping costs temporarily). 4) We ran the OLS and time-series model and compare the results. The time-series model seems to be a better model with higher R-square, better F-statistics, and reasonable beta coefficient. The regression model is fitted as following: USXt=-36190+0.1664*USSt-1+0.06718*USNt-1-0.4927*USCt-1-0.2090*ROWSt-1-0.00988*ROWNt-1-0.5225*ROWXt-1 +0.5141*ROWCt-1+6971.54*PCt-269.33*SHCt R2 = 85.9% and F-statistics = 27.75(P-value <0.01) R2 = 85.9% of the variation in corn exports can be explained by the independent variables in the model. the interpretation of the coefficients is listed as following (number in the brackets indicates the t-value): a0 -36190 (-2.38**)Negative intercept coefficient. a1 0.1664 (3.09***) If the U.S. ending stocks increase by 1000 MT in a given year, U.S. corn exports increase by 166.4 MT; one year later, other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a20.06718 (2.84***)If the number of animals in the U.S. increases by 1,000 head in a given year, U.S. corn exports increase by 67.18 MT; one year later, other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a3- 0.4927 (-3.97***)If U.S. consumption increases by 1000 MT, U.S. corn exports decrease by 492.7 MT; other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a4 - 0.2090 (-3.12***)If rest-of-world corn ending stocks increase by 1000 MT in a given year, U.S. corn exports decrease by 209 MT; one year later, other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a5 - 0.00988 (-3.69***) If the rest-of-world number of animals increases by 1000 head, U.S. corn exports decrease by 9.88 MT; other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a6 - 0.5225 (-2.09**)If rest-of-world corn exports increase by 1000 MT, U.S. corn exports decrease by 522.5 MT; other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 5% level. a70.5141 (6.46***) If rest-of -world consumption changes by 1000 MT, U.S. corn exports increase by 514.1 MT; other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a8 6971.54 (2.73***)If the price of corn increases by $1 in a given year, U.S. corn exports increase by 6971.54 MT, other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a9-269.33 (-1.84*)If crude oil price go down by $1 in a given year, corn exports increase by 269.33 MT; other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 10% level. Our empirical tests show that shipping cost does have significant impact on corn exports from the U.S. With the completion of the PCE, we expect to see the export of corn and other agricultural products increase dramatically. As a result, employment opportunities on the farm and in the transportation system will increase significantly. 5) The team has built the transportation model to forecast corn exports by several major ports: Savannah, Mobile, New Orleans, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The team could not build the spatial inter-temporal equilibrium model since the data for corn supply and demand by region is not available. 6) The team has developed, written, and submitted research papers at several conferences in 2013 and 2014. Presentations include the following: a) “Transaction Cost and U.S. Corn Exports”, Guohua Ma, the 13th International Business and Economics (IBEC) Conference, Tianjin, China, Jan 2014. b) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Guohua Ma, 50th Annual meeting of the Academy of Economics and Finance, Mobile, AL, Feb 2013. c) "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States - Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions", Guohua Ma, LaKeethia Curry and Austin James, 43rd Annual meeting of the Southeast Decisions Sciences in Charleston, SC, Feb 2013. d) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Johnny Wilson, the 71 Professional Agricultural Workers Conference (PAWC), Tuskegee, AL, Dec 2013. e) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, LaKeethia Curry, the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD, Jacksonville, FL, April 2013. f) “Panama Canal Expansion (PCE), Toll Increase and Impact on U.S. Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, poster presentation by Austin James, the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD, Jacksonville, FL, April 2013. g) “Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States”, Johnny Wilson, 29th Minorities in Agriculture National Resources and Related Sciences (MANNRS) Annual Conference, Birmingham, AL, March 28, 2014. 7) The team has submitted a research paper titled “Panama Canal Expansion and Peach Export in South Carolina and Georgia” to the 51th Annual Meeting of Academy of Economics and Finance in Dec 2013. The paper was accepted for presentation in early 2014. Dr. Guohua Ma had to cancel the presentation since she was very sick. 8) We have hired and trained four undergraduate students and one graduate student. 9) The SC State 1890 Research team has developed and published the researcher profile of Dr. Ma on the 1890 research’s website. One of the student research assistants, LaKeethia M. Curry, was interviewed; her researcher profile was developed and circulated through the university’s email system and on the business program’s bulletin board.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Transaction Cost and U.S. Corn Exports , Guohua Ma, the 13th International Business and Economics (IBEC) Conference, Tianjin, China, Jan 2014.
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Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience for this project is the following: • General Public. • Local farmers and rural communities, including small and minority farmers. • Transportation system and authorities. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has provided great opportunities for training and professional development for the professor and the students: 1) Dr. Ma presented the research work titled "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States” at the 50th Annual meeting of the Academy of Economics and Finance in spring 2013. 2) Dr. Ma, Ms. LaKeethia, and Mr. Austin present a conference presentation for the paper titled "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States - Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions" at the 43rd Annual meeting of the Southeast Decisions Sciences in spring 2013. 3) Dr. Ma has bestowed the research work at the International Business and Economics (IBEC) Conference Jan 9-12, 2014. 4) One graduate student, Johnny Wilson, presented the work at the 71 Professional Agricultural Workers Conference (PAWC) held in Tuskegee, AL in Dec. 2013. 5) LaKeethia M. Curry completed her oral presentation titled "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States" at the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD held in Jacksonville, FL in April 2013. 6) Austin M. James gave his poster presentation titled "Panama Canal Expansion, Toll Increase and Impact on U.S. Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States" at the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD held in Jacksonville, FL in April 2013. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The research team has completed various presentations at various national and regional conferences to disseminate the research results to academic and to professional communities. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? 1) The research team will continue to build the transportation model to predict corn export flows in the post PCE period. 2) The team will search for relevant transportation data to feed into the transportation model. 3) The team will continue to present the research work at agricultural and economics conferences to disseminate the research results and to obtain valuable feedback.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
1) The research team did a thorough literature review which introduced the importance of the proposed research area to the general public. The research examines the potential impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on exports and job opportunities related to rural farmers and transportation system. 2) The team has developed the basic Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model to predict regional corn exports. Based on the previous literature, we identified the following regression model: USX = a0 +a1*USS +a2*USN +a3*USC+a4*ROWS+a5*ROWN+a6*ROWX+a7*ROWC+a8*PC+a9*SHC where USX is U.S. corn exports; USS is ending stocks in the U.S.; USN is the number of live animals in the U.S.; USC is the total domestic consumption in the U.S.; ROWS is ending stocks in the rest of the world; ROWN is the number of live animals in the rest of the world; ROWX is rest-of-world corn exports; ROWC is the total consumption in the rest of the world; PC is the U.S.corn price, and SHC is the transportation costs associated with corn exporting. 3) The team has also built the following time series regression model: USXt=a0+a1*USSt-1+a2*USNt-1+a3*USCt-1+a4*ROWSt-1+a5*ROWNt-1+a6*ROWXt-1 +a7*ROWCt-1+a8*PCt+a9*SHCt Where USXt is U.S. corn exports at time t; USSt-1 is ending stocks in the U.S. at time t-1; USNt-1 is the number of live animals in the U.S. at time t-1; USCt-1 is the total domestic consumption in the U.S. at time t-1; ROWSt-1 is ending stocks in the rest of the world at time t-1; ROWNt-1 is the number of live animals in the rest of the world at time t-1; ROWXt-1 is rest-of-world corn exports at time t-1; ROWCt-1 is total consumption in the rest of the world at time t-1; PCt is the U.S.corn price at time t; and SHCt is the transportation costs associated with corn exporting at time t (we use crude oil price to represent shipping costs temporarily). 4) We ran both the OLS and time-series model and compared the results. The time-series model seems to be a better model with a higher R-square, better F-statistics, and reasonable beta coefficient. The regression model is fitted as following: USXt=-36190+0.1664*USSt-1+0.06718*USNt-1-0.4927*USCt-1-0.2090*ROWSt-1-0.00988*ROWNt-1-0.5225*ROWXt-1 +0.5141*ROWCt-1+6971.54*PCt-269.33*SHCt R2 = 85.9% and F-statistics = 27.75(P-value <0.01) R2 = 85.9% means that 85.9% of the variation in corn exports can be explained by the independent variables in the model. The interpretation of the coefficients is listed as following (number in the brackets indicates the t-value): a0 -36190 (-2.38**)Negative intercept coefficient a1 0.1664 (3.09***) If the U.S. ending stocks increase by 1000 MT in a given year, U.S. corn exports increase by 166.4 MT one year later as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a2 0.06718 (2.84***) If the number of animals in the U.S. increases by 1,000 head in a given year, U.S. corn exports increase by 67.18 MT one year later, other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a3 - 0.4927 (-3.97***) If U.S. consumption increases by 1000 MT, U.S. corn exports decrease by 492.7 MT as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a4 - 0.2090 (-3.12***) If rest-of-world corn ending stocks increase by 1000 MT in a given year, U.S. corn exports decrease by 209 MT one year later as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a5 - 0.00988 (-3.69***) If the rest-of-world number of animals increases by 1000 head, U.S. corn exports decrease by 9.88 MT as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a6 - 0.5225 (-2.09**)If rest-of-world corn exports increase by 1000 MT, U.S. corn exports decrease by 522.5 MT as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 5% level. a7 0.5141 (6.46***)If rest-of -world consumption changes by 1000 MT, U.S. corn exports increase by 514.1 MT as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a8 6971.54 (2.73***) If the price of corn increases by $1 in a given year, U.S. corn exports increase by 6971.54 MT as other factors held constant. The coefficient was significant at the 1% level. a9 -269.33 (-1.84*) If crude oil prices go down by $1 in a given year, corn exports increase by 269.33 MT, other factors held constant as the coefficient was significant at the 10% level. Our empirical tests show that shipping cost does have significant impact on corn exports from the U.S. 5) The team has built the transportation model to forecast corn exports by several major ports: Savannah, Mobile, New Orleans, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. The team could not build the spatial inter-temporal equilibrium model since the data for corn supply and demand by region is not available.
Publications
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
The paper titled Impact of "The Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States - Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions" authored by Ma, G., Curry, L. and James, A., was accepted and published online by the 43rd Southeast Decision Science Institutes Annual Conference.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Dr. Ma presented the research work titled "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States " at the 50th Annual meeting of the Academy of Economics and Finance in spring 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
LaKeethia M. Curry did her oral presentation titled "Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States" at the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD held in Jacksonville, FL in April 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
) Austin M. James completed his poster presentation titled "Panama Canal Expansion, Toll Increase and Impact on U.S. Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States" at the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD held in Jacksonville, FL in April 2013.
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Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The research team did a thorough literature review related to the following topics: 1) Panama Canal Expansion project; 2) corn production, transportation, shipping, and handling process in the U.S.; 3) factors that affect corn prices; 4) factors that determine regional corn demand and exports; 5) corn farmers' revenue, cost, and profitability and estimation method; 6) supporting transportation system in the Southeast region, including capacity of inland waterways and major ports; and 7) research on the spatial inter-temporal equilibrium model and its applications. We also searched on-line for historical data on corn exports and imports by country. We created a dataset on historical corn export/import data. We will add more data on corn exports and imports by region or ports in the future. We reviewed current literature on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and time series models to predict corn exports. We summarized all the results and wrote papers based on our findings. One working paper was accepted for conference presentation at the 50th Annual meeting of the Academy of Economics and Finance in spring 2013; One working paper was accepted for conference presentation at the 43rd Annual meeting of the Southeast Decisions Sciences in spring 2013; LaKeethia M. Curry submitted her abstract for oral presentations at the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD held in Jacksonville, FL in April 2013; and Austin M. James submitted his poster presentation at the 17th Biennial Research Symposium of ARD held in Jacksonville, FL in April 2013. We also examined and selected current software available on the market for OLS, time series, and spatial inter-temporal equilibrium models. PARTICIPANTS: LaKeethia M. Curry, Undergraduate Assistant, South Carolina State University, 300 College Street NE, Orangeburg SC 29117 Email: Currygirl06@gmail.com Austin M. James, Undergraduate Assistant, South Carolina State University, 300 College Street NE, Orangeburg SC 29117 Email: ajames1@scsu.edu Cheike Diop, Graduate Assistant, South Carolina State University, 300 College Street NE, Orangeburg SC 29117 TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience for this project is the following: General Public, Local farmers and rural communities and Transportation system and authorities PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: There is no modification for now, but in the future the project may be expanded to other agricultural products such as peaches and/or peanut exports.
Impacts
1) The literature review developed from this project introduced the importance of the proposed research area to the general public. This paper examines the potential impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on exports and job opportunities related to rural farmers and transportation system. The paper made significant contributions to the literature of this research area. 2) We developed the basic OLS model to predict regional corn exports. Based on the previous literature, we identified the following regression model: USX = a0 +a1*USS +a2*USN +a3*USC+a4*ROWS+a5*ROWN+a6*ROWX+a7*ROWC+a8*ER +a9*PC+a10*SHC where USX is U.S. corn exports; USS is ending stocks in the U.S.; USN is the number of live animals in the U.S.; USC is the total domestic consumption in the U.S.; ROWS is ending stocks in the rest of the world; ROWN is the number of live animals in the rest of the world; ROWX is rest-of-world corn exports; ROWC is the total consumption in the rest of the world, ER is the annual corn trade-weighted exchange rate; PC is the U.S.corn price, and SHC is the transportation costs associated with corn exporting. 3) We also built the following time series regression model: USXt=a0+a1*USSt-1+a2*USNt-1+a3*USCt-1+a4*ROWSt-1+a5*ROWNt-1+a6*ROWXt- 1 +a7*ROWCt-1+a8*ERt +a9*PCt+a10*SHC where USXt is U.S. corn exports at time t; USSt-1 is ending stocks in the U.S. at time t-1; USNt-1 is the number of live animals in the U.S. at time t-1; USCt-1 is the total domestic consumption in the U.S. at time t-1; ROWSt-1 is ending stocks in the rest of the world at time t-1; ROWNt-1 is the number of live animals in the rest of the world at time t-1; ROWXt-1 is rest-of-world corn exports at time t-1; ROWCt-1 is total consumption in the rest of the world at time t-1; ERt is the annual corn trade-weighted exchange rate at time t; a9PCt is the U.S.corn price at time t; and SHCt is the transportation costs associated with corn exporting at time t. 4) The team has developed, written, and submitted two research papers at two conferences. Both papers were accepted for presentations and publication. One paper will be available as a conference proceeding for the general public and improves the awareness of the proposed research area, especially for rural communities and transportation authorities. 5) We have hired and trained two undergraduate students and one graduate student. The graduate student has decided to pursue his Ph.D. degree in the related field since he is very interested in the research work. 6) We have created a table that specified all southeastern ports and western ports, as well as the channel depth for each port, have obtained estimates on corn farmers' revenue, cost, and profitability, and have created a dataset on historical corn export/import data. 7) The SC State 1890 research team has developed and published the researcher profile of Dr. Ma on the 1890 research's website. One of the student research assistants, LaKeethia M. Curry, was interviewed; her researcher profile was developed and circulated through the university's email system and business program's bulletin board.
Publications
- Ma, G., Curry, L., and James, A. (2013). Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on Corn Exports in the Southeast Region of the United States, Introduction, Literature Review and Discussions, 2013 SEDSI Annual Conference.
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