Source: MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
FORECASTING THE FUTURE FUNCTION OF NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FORESTS
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0228396
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2012
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2015
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
BOZEMAN,MT 59717
Performing Department
Land Resources & Environmental Sciences
Non Technical Summary
Land cover influences climate by controlling in part the movement of energy, water and trace gases between the surface and the atmosphere. Forecasting climate change thus requires an understanding of how terrestrial ecosystem function, how they are changing, and how these dynamics feed back to the climate system. Boreal forests are generally thought to warm the surface because of low albdeo (reflectivity) and tropical forests are thought to cool the surface due to enhanced evaporative cooling over non-forested tropical areas. Surprisingly, the full climate consequences of temperate forests are poorly known. These must be understood to constrain climate forecasts over the decadal timescales of ecological succession. Quantifying and forecasting the role of temperate ecosystems in the climate system is complex, but substantial progress can be made using state-of-the-art dynamical, process-based ecosystem models, contemporary statistical techniques like data assimilation, and climate change projections, all aided by remote sensing, meteorological and forest inventory data. To constrain the problem of ecological forecasting over decadal timescales, a detailed thirty-year historical and thirty-year future analysis of Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (TCEF) and Yellowstone National Park (YNP) is ideal for methodological development, for quantifying surface-atmosphere flux effects of contemporary disturbances (e.g. the mountain pine beetle and fire), and to engage decision makers and the public by formally forecasting likely future composition and function of an internationally renowned ecosystem. The project seeks to: 1) examine historical changes in TCEF and YNP land-atmosphere flux of energy, water and carbon; 2) assimilate remote sensing and forest inventory data into the Ecosystem Demography (ED2) model; and 3) forecast the composition, structure and ecosystem function of YNP over decadal time scales. These address an overarching hypothesis that the net radiative forcing of all YNP disturbances was and will be a biophysical cooling of the surface as increases in albedo outweigh warming effects of decreased evapotranspiration and warm the atmosphere as disturbance tends to release CO2 from ecosystems, but later warm the land surface and cool the atmosphere as plant succession progresses.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
9010499107011%
9010499207011%
9010499208011%
9010699107011%
9010699207011%
9010699208011%
9017299107011%
9017299207011%
9017299208012%
Knowledge Area
901 - Program and Project Design, and Statistics;

Subject Of Investigation
0499 - Atmosphere, general/other; 0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general; 7299 - Research equipment and methods, general/other;

Field Of Science
2070 - Meteorology and climatology; 1070 - Ecology; 2080 - Mathematics and computer sciences;
Goals / Objectives
The overarching objective is to quantify current and forecast future impacts of disturbance on TCEF and YNP ecosystems on decadal timescales using a combination of remote sensing, field observations, and ecosystem modeling. I will test an overarching hypothesis which follows from a number of individual hypotheses described in Figure 3: H: The net radiative forcing of all YNP disturbances is an immediate biophysical cooling of the surface and biogeochemical warming of the atmosphere. Disturbance will cause surface cooling as a result of decreased albedo, especially during wintertime, which will outweigh the warming effects of decreased evapotranspiration, but tree mortality from disturbance will increase atmospheric CO2 concentration, causing the atmosphere to warm. This biophysical surface cooling will be followed by a lagged surface warming that commences when small trees cause surface albedo to increase before the canopy fully develops and evapotranspiration reaches pre-disturbance rates. To address the experimental hypothesis, a number of tasks must be completed, that correspond to project output: T1: Parameterize the Ecosystem Demography v.2 (ED2) model for TCEF and YNP ecosystems using remote sensing and stand-level data; T2: Examine thirty-year historical changes in the land surface flux of energy, water and carbon using existing remote sensing data; T3: Use ED2, parameterized with remote sensing and forest inventory datasets and driven by down-scaled GCM climate projections (Table S1) to forecast ecosystem composition, structure, and function over the next thirty years; T4: Perform a formal statistical analysis of multiple model outputs for the goal of improving subroutines and parameterizations for ED2; T5: Create materials for public dissemination, with a focus on visualization of results and the creation of teaching materials for undergraduate courses. By providing a formal forecast of ecosystem goods and services, the proposed project is intended to be highly relevant to multiple stakeholders in the state of Montana and the nation. Results are intended to improve resource management and planning across multiple disciplines including forestry, water resource management, and range management. The proposed project overlaps with the MAES goals to: Provide leadership in developing ambitious, competitive and imaginative research activities that create new discoveries, positively impact undergraduate and graduate learning and gain national and international recognition; and Disseminate new research discoveries and deliver outreach programs that serve Montana in a global economic environment. Findings, including forecasts, will be disseminated to stakeholders through online media. The project website will be housed on watershed.montana.edu, administered in part by cooperating researchers McGlynn and Marshall. Relevant data analysis techniques will be taught in ENSC 465-565 Environmental Biophysics, which will additionally be available through the new online MS offered by LRES. It will be ensured that all publications arising from the proposed project will be available free of charge to the public.
Project Methods
(Additional methodological detail is provided in the Supplementary Methods section.) The Ecosystem Demography model version 2.2 (ED2) is an age- and stage-structured terrestrial biosphere model that combines plant community dynamics with ecophysiological and biogeochemical fluxes of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen (Medvigy et al., 2009; Moorcroft et al., 2001). ED2 simulates plant competition and succession similar to individual-based gap models by explicitly representing vertical and horizontal heterogeneity in canopy structure and composition. ED2 can thus link short-term, physiological responses to environmental conditions with realistic, long-term changes in ecosystem structure and composition while also capturing the effects of sub-grid scale disturbances (Moorcroft et al., 2001). Importantly, for addressing the experimental hypotheses and linking land-surface processes to remote sensing, ED2 resolves the full surface energy budget, explicitly predicting reflected radiation for multiple spectral bands (i.e. visible, near infrared, longwave). ED2 predicts a number of quantities related to those derived from multi-spectral, hyper-spectral, or radar remote sensing, including LAI, FPAR, NPP/GPP, foliar water/nutrient stress, biomass, species composition, land-surface temperature, soil moisture, snowpack depth & mass, and disturbance rates (Dietze and Moorcroft, 2011).

Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:The primary target audience during this reporting period was academic scientists and land managers through the publication of two peer-reviewed manuscripts on the impacts of Mountain Pine Beetle on snow dynamics and on technical aspects of measuring trace gas flux through snow. Changes/Problems:Completion of project objectives was contingent upon obtaining external funding to hire multiple graduate and undergraduate students and a postdoctoral research scientist. A pre-proposal to NSF Ecosystem Sciences was prepared and invited for a full proposal, but ultimately was not awarded funding. As a consequence, project research shifted to supporting graduate student theses on the effects of forest cover including Mountain Pine Beetle disturbance on snowmelt dynamics, and the measurement of CO2 efflux from these snowpacks with a focus on quantifying differences amongst different measurement techniques. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Two students - Christopher Welch and F. Aaron Rains -successfully defended MS degrees with project support. Both students recently published the major results from their thesesin peer-reviewed journals as described in 'Products'. Both students have also used the opportunities provided by the present projectto advance their careers in natural resource management. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Project work has resulted in a number ofpublications as described in previous project reports. With respect to the present project reporting period, three manuscripts have been published in peer-reviewed journals. The primary audience is academic scientists and land managers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Efforts to obtain funding to complete this project fell short, but two MS degrees were completed, multiple peer-reviewed publications were published over the course of the project, and ENSC 465/565 Environmental Biophysics as well as online MS courseswere improved using project results.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Rains FA, Stoy PC, Welch CM, Montagne C, McGlynn BL (2016) Enhanced diffusion helps explain cold-season soil CO2 efflux in a lodgepole pine ecosystem. Cold Regions Science and Technology 121: 16-24. DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2015.10.003.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Welch CM, Stoy PC, Rains FA, Johnson AV, McGlynn BL (2015) The impacts of mountain pine beetle disturbance on the energy balance of snow during the melt period. Hydrological Processes DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10638.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Stoy PC, Quaife T (2015) Probabilistic downscaling of remote sensing data with applications for multi-scale biogeochemical flux modeling. PLoS One 10(6): e0128935. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128935.


Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Project work has resulted in a number of peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations for the scientific community. Changes/Problems: As funding for the proposal as written was not obtained, I seek to change the title of the project to 'Surface-atmosphere trace gas and energy exchange in forested and agricultural ecosystems' and to continue in these complimentary areas of research under awards granted by the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, the Montana Water Resources Association, and the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee. The goals of the funded proposal 'Building forest management into Earth system modeling: Scaling from stand to continent' are to: 1) determine how the variations in forest management, climate, and disturbance impact the structure and function of forest ecosystems; and 2) quantify the relative importance of forest management, climate, and disturbance as drivers of ecosystem structure and function at stand to continental scales across North American forests. The goals of the funded proposal 'Bridging land-surface fluxes and aerosol concentrations to triggering convective rainfall' follow from the following four research questions: 1) What are the vegetation and atmospheric controls on the turbulent fluxes of mass and energy between forests and the atmosphere, and to what extent do the resulting energy fluxes trigger convectoin initiation and govern the growth rates of the convective boundary layer in the GoAmazon study region (near Manaus, Brazil)?; 2) To what degree are emissions, surface deposition, and chemical transformation of gases and aerosols in forested areas controlled by biotic versus abiotic factors?; 3) To what extent locally emitted or formed gases and aerosols escape the ABL capping inversion and enter the cloud layer over the diurnal cycle?; 4) What is the significance of secondary organic aerosols and how do their consequent cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) affect cloud formation? By aligning project work along these lines of questions, I seek to contribute to the success of funded projects while developing future competitive proposals along these lines of research. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Project work has contributed to the education of project graduate student Aiden Johnson, who defended his MS thesis in November, 2014. Montana State University graduate students Angela Tang and Elizabeth S.K. Harris gained experience by contributing to Aiden's project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results have been disseminated to the scientific community and to elected representatives in the Montana Legislature. Project work contributed to two first-author publications and eight total publications in 2014, as well as two conference presentations and five invited presentations for the Montana State Legislature's Water Policy Interim Committee, the Universities of Zurich and Innsbruck, and research institutes in Garmisch-Partenkirchen and Leipzig, Germany. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? A postdoctoral reserach associate (PDRA) is in the process of being hired to contribute to T1 (Parameterize the Ecosystem Demography v.2 (ED2) model) and T4 (Perform a formal statistical analysis of multiple model outputs for the goal of improving subroutines and parameterizations for ED2), albeit for the goals of scaling forest management from stand to continent per the goals of the NSF Macrosystems Ecology proposal (PI: C. Staudhammer). I will work with the PDRA to accomplish these goals at the stand-to-continent scale alongside project participants Dr. Michael Dietze (Boston University), Dr. Ankur Desai (University of Wisconsin), and Dr. Michael Binford (University of Florida). We will work on a scientific publication detailing the consequences of forest management on land surface biophysics and anticipate having a manuscript submitted for review next year.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The project as written was submitted twice for funding to the National Science Foundation's Ecosystem Sciences program. The proposal made it through the first round of review in 2013, but was ultimately not selected for funding. Two proposals related to the research topic were selected for funding during the award year: 'Building forest management into Earth system modeling: Scaling from stand to continent' (PI: C. Staudhammer, University of Alabama) was funded by the National Science Foundation's Macrosystems Biology Program, and 'Bridging land-surface fluxes and aerosol concentrations to triggering convective rainfall' (PI: M. Chamecki, Penn State University) was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. Both projects involve forest ecosystems, although the specific goals of these projects differ from the present project. As a consequence, accomplishments under the present project include the successful procurement of funding as a co-PI on other proposals to funding agencies. Project work has contributed substantially to the creation of materials for undergraduate and graduate courses (T5). A number of publications and presentations have resulted from project work, as discussed elsewhere.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Novick KA, Oishi, AC, Ward E, Siqueira MBS, Juang J-Y, Stoy PC (2014) Inter-annual variability in the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of CO2 and H2O in adjacent pine and hardwood forests: links to drought, rising CO2, and seasonality. Global Change Biology. DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12723.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Paul C. Stoy, Amy M. Trowbridge, Tobias Gerken, Jose D. Fuentes, Gabriel G. Katul, and Marcelo Chamecki (2014) Volatile organic compound concentrations within a tropical plant canopy and atmospheric boundary layer: Initial flux estimates and contributions to the GoAmazon campaign. 31st Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Portland, OR. May, 2014.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Paul C. Stoy, Marcelo Chamecki, Jose Fuentes, Gabriel G. Katul, Amy M. Trowbridge. (2014) The role of plant volatile emissions on atmospheric aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the Amazon: A conceptual overview Gordon Conference on Plant Volatiles, Exploring the Plant Headspace: Functional Analysis and Emerging Applications. Ventura, CA. January 2014.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Stoy PC, Trowbridge AM, Bauerle WL (2014) Controls on seasonal patterns of maximum ecosystem carbon uptake and canopy-scale photosynthetic light response: Contributions from both temperature and photoperiod. Photosynthesis Research 119: 49-64. DOI: 10.1007/s11120-013-9799-0.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kim D, Oren R, Oishi AC, Hsieh C-I, Phillips N, Novick KA, Stoy PC (2014) Sensitivity of stand transpiration to wind velocity in a mixed broadleaved deciduous forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 187: 62-71. DOI: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.11.013.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Luyssaert S, Jammet M, Stoy PC, Estel S, Pongratz J, Ceschia E, Churkina G, Don A, Erb K, Ferlicoq M, Gielen B, Grunwald T, Houghton RA, Klumpp K, Knohl A, Kolb T, Kuemmerle T, Laurila T, Lohila A, Loustau D, McGrath M Meyfroidt P, Moors EJ, Naudts K, Novick K, Otto J, Pilegaard K, Pio CA, Rambal S, Rebmann C, Ryder J, Suyker AE, Varlagin AB, Wattenbach M, Dolman AJ (2014) Land management and land cover change have impacts of similar magnitude on surface temperature. Nature Climate Change 4: 389-393. DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2196.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Stoy PC, Lin H, Novick KA, Siqueira MBS, Juang J-Y (2014) The role of vegetation on the ecosystem radiative entropy budget and trends along ecological succession. Entropy 16: 3710-3731. DOI: 10.3390/e16073710.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Matheny AM, Bohrer G, Stoy PC, Baker I, Black TA, Desai A, Dietze M, Gough C, Ivanov V, Jassal P, Novick K, Sch�fer K, Verbeeck H (2014) Characterizing the diurnal patterns of errors in the prediction of evapotranspiration by several land-surface models: an NACP analysis. Journal of Geophysical Research  Biogeosciences 119: 1458-1473. DOI: 10.1002/2014JG002623.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Long JA, Stoy PC (2014) Peak tornado activity is occurring earlier in the heart of Tornado Alley. Geophysical Research Letters 41: 6259-6264. DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061385.


Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Presentations were given to the Montana Chapter of the American Water Resources Association, the American Geophysical Union, the North American Carbon Program's biannual meeting, the Ecological Society of America, Indiana University, and the Montana Wheat and Barley Committee. Data has also been used for teaching lessons for Environmental Biophysics at Montana State University. We have disseminated project results to producers, water resource managers, scientists, and students. Changes/Problems: Future work will focus on different domains within Montana and the U.S. as part of a funded NSF project 'Collaborative Research: Building forest management into Earth system modeling: Scaling from Stand to Continent'. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project to date has trained two graduate students in ecological and remote sensing data analysis. Project work has also contributed to teaching upper-level undergraduates and graduate students in Environmental Biophysics. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Yes, multiple publications have been published and multiple presentations have been given. All focus on or have implications for ecological data analysis and the surface-atmosphere exchange of carbon, water and energy. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? I do not seek to submit another proposal on the project topic and will turn my attention instead to ecological climatology and the role that the terrestrial surface - including ecosystem management - plays in the climate system.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? A proposal was submitted to the National Science Foundation's Department of Environmental Biology for $366,283, mostly for students and postdocs to be trained in ecological forecasting. The proposal made it through the first round of reviews and a second-stage proposal was requested, but was unsuccessful despite some positive comments from the panel.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Stoy, PC. Carbon cycle science in the Big Data era: opportunities and limitations. 4th North American Carbon Program All Investigators Meeting, Albuquerque, February 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Stoy, PC.A study of the Priestley-Taylor alpha parameter at the ecosystem scale. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: The climate record of Montana over the past half-century. Consequences for water resources and opportunities for teaching practitioners how to study the whole bowl of cherries. Montana Chapter of the American Water Resources Association Meeting, Bozeman, MT.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Trowbridge AM, Stoy, PC (2013) BVOC-mediated plant-herbivore interactions. In Biology, controls and models of tree volatile organic compound emissions (eds. Niinemets �, Monson RK). Springer. pp. 21-46.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Stoy PC, Mauder M, Foken T, Marcolla B, Boegh E, Ibrom A, Arain MA, Arneth A, Aurela M, Bernhofer C, Cescatti A, Dellwik E, Duce P, Gianelle D, van Gorsel E, Kiely G, Knohl A, Margolis H, McCaughey H, Merbold L, Montagnani L, Papale D, Reichstein M, Saunders M, Serrano-Ortiz P, Sottocornola M, Spano D, Vaccari F, Varlagin A (2013) A data-driven analysis of energy balance closure across FLUXNET research sites: The role of landscape scale heterogeneity. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 171-172: 137-152. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.11.004.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Ruddell BL, Brunsell NA, Stoy PC (2013) Applying information theory in the geosciences to quantify process uncertainty, feedback, scale. Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 94: 56. doi: 10.1002/2013EO050007.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Stoy PC, Williams M, Evans JG, Prieto-Blanco A, Disney M, Hill TC, Ward HC, Wade TJ, Street LE (2013) Upscaling tundra CO2 exchange from chamber to eddy covariance tower. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 45: 275-284. doi: 10.1657/1938-4246-45-2.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Long JA, Stoy PC (2013) Quantifying the periodicity of Heinrich and Dansgaard-Oeschger events during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Quaternary Research 79: 103-113. doi: 10.1016/j.yqres.2013.02.003.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Stoy PC, Dietze M, Richardson AD, Vargas R, Barr AG, Anderson RS, Arain MA, Baker IT, Black TA, Chen JM, Cook RB, Gough CM, Grant RF, Hollinger DY, Izaurralde C, Kucharik CJ, Lafleur P, Law BE, Liu S, Lokupitiya E, Luo Y, Munger JW, Peng C, Poulter B, Price DT, Ricciuto DM, Riley WJ, Sahoo AK, Schaefer K, Schwalm CR, Tian H, Verbeeck H, Weng E (2013) Evaluating the agreement between measurements and models of net ecosystem exchange at different times and time scales using wavelet coherence: An example using data from the North American Carbon Program Site-Level Interim Synthesis. Biogeosciences 10: 6983-6909. doi:10.5194/bg-10-6893-2013.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Trowbridge AM, Daly RW, Helmig D, Stoy PC, Monson RK (2013) Herbivory and climate interact serially to control monoterpene emissions from pinyon pine forests. Ecology. doi: 10.1890/13-0989.1.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Stoy PC, Trowbridge AM, Bauerle WL (2014) Controls on seasonal patterns of maximum ecosystem carbon uptake and canopy-scale photosynthetic light response: Contributions from both temperature and photoperiod. Photosynthesis Research 119: 49-64. doi: 10.1007/s11120-013-9799-0.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kim D, Oren R, Oishi AC, Hsieh C-I, Phillips N, Novick KA, Stoy PC (2014) Sensitivity of stand transpiration to wind velocity in a mixed broadleaved deciduous forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 187: 62-71. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2013.11.013.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Luyssaert S, Jammet M, Stoy PC, Estel S, Pongratz J, Ceschia E, Churkina G, Don A, Erb K, Ferlicoq M, Gielen B, Grunwald T, Houghton RA, Klumpp K, Knohl A, Kolb T, Kuemmerle T, Laurila T, Lohila A, Loustau D, Meyfroidt P, Moors EJ, Novick K, Otto J, Pilegaard K, Pio CA, Rambal S, Rebmann C, Ryder J, Suyker AE, Varlagin AB, Wattenbach M, Dolman AJ (in review) Beyond land cover change - Effects of contemporary land management on surface climate. Submitted to Nature Climate Change.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Rains FA, Stoy PC, Welch C, Montagne C, McGlynn BL (in review) Enhanced diffusion helps explain cold-season soil CO2 efflux in a Lodgepole Pine ecosystem. Submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Johnston CE, Ewing SA, Harden JW, Stoy PC, Varner RK, Wickland KP, Koch J, Fuller CC, Jorgenson MT (in review) Effect of permafrost thaw on CO2 and CH4 exchange across a peatland chronosequence in Western Alaska. Submitted to Environmental Research Letters.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Long JA, Stoy PC (in review) Peak tornado activity is occurring earlier in the heart of Tornado Alley. Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Lin H, Stoy PC, Fan Z, Zhang Y, Yu G (in review) Thermal properties of mature forests in tropical, subtropical, and temperate biomes. Submitted to Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Matheny AM, Bohrer G, Stoy PC, Baker I, Black TA, Desai A, Dietze M, Gough C, Ivanov V, Jassal P, Novick K, Sch�fer K, Verbeeck H (in review) Characterizing the diurnal patterns of errors in the prediction of evapotranspiration by several land-surface models: an NACP analysis. Submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences


Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: To date I have submitted a pre-proposal to NSF to obtain funding to perform the present project as written. A number of publications that contribute to MONB00362 were published in 2012; these involve studies on measurement networks, spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthesis, land surface biophysics, methodological improvements, and statistical techniques. Four publications have been published or are in press to date in 2013. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. Paul C. Stoy, Montana State University; F. Aaron Rains, Montana State University; Christopher Welch, Montana State University; Aiden Johnson, Montana State University; Dr. Michael Dietze, Boston University; Dr. Ankur Desai, University of Wisconsin; Dr. Christina Staudhammer, University of Alabama; Dr. Gregg Starr, University of Alabama; Dr. Michael Binford, University of Florida; Dr. Robert Crabtree, University of Montana; Dr. Scott Powell, Montana State University; Dr. Mark Greenwood, Montana State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Undergraduate and graduate students, ecological modelers, and ecosystem scientists are the primary target audiences for the present project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Work related to the present project contributed to a grant (PI C. Staudhammer, University of Alabama) that was recommended for funding from NSF's Macrosystems Biology program. We await final word on funding and anticipate a response soon. A graduate student, F. Aaron Rains, successfully completed the oral portion of his MS defense in 2012, and the written component early in 2013. Aaron's work on cold-season carbon efflux in lodgepole pine stands contribute to the present project by improving our understanding of biogeochemical transport.

Publications

  • Niu S, Luo Y, Fei S, Yuan W, Schimel D, Law BE, Ammann C, Arain MA, Arneth A, Aubinet M, Barr A, Beringer J, Bernhofer C, Black TA, Buchmann N, Cescatti A, Chen J, Davis KJ, Dellwik E, Desai AR, Etzold S, Francois L, Gianelle D, Gielen B, Goldstein A, Groenendijk M, Gu L, Hanan N, Helfter C, Hirano T, Hollinger DY, Jones MB, Kiely G, Kolb TE, Kutsch WL, Lafleur P, Lawrence DM, Li L, Lindroth A, Litvak M, Loustau D, Lund M, Marek M, Martin TA, Matteucci G, Migliavacca M, Montagnani L, Moors E, Munger JW, Noormets A, Oechel W, Olejnik J, Paw U KT, Pileggard K, Rambal S, Raschi A, Scott RL, Seufert G, Spano D, Stoy PC, Sutton MA, Varlagin A, Vesala T, Weng E, Wohlfahrt G, Yang B, Zhang Z, Zhou X (2012) Thermal optimality of net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and underlying mechanisms. New Phytologist 194: 775-783. doi: 10.1111/j.1469-8137.2012.04095.x
  • Fletcher BJ, Gornall JL, Poyatos-Lopez R, Press MC, Stoy PC, Huntley B, Baxter R, Phoenix GK (2012) Photosynthesis and productivity in heterogeneous arctic tundra: Consequences for ecosystem function of mixing vegetation types at stand edges. Journal of Ecology 100, 441-451. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01913.x.
  • Street LE, Stoy PC, Sommerkorn M, Fletcher BJ, Sloan V, Hill TC, Williams M (2012) Seasonal bryophyte productivity in the sub-Arctic: A comparison with vascular plants. Functional Ecology 26: 365-378. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2435.2011.01954.x.
  • Reichstein M, Stoy PC, Lasslop G, Desai AR, Richardson AD (2012) Partitioning net fluxes. In: Eddy Covariance: A Practical Guide to Measurement and Data Analysis (eds. Aubinet M, Vesala T, Papale D). Springer, Dordrecht, pp. 460.
  • Subke J-A, Carbone MS, Khomik M, Stoy PC, Bahn M (2012) Preface to Biotic interactions and biogeochemical processes in the soil environment. Biogeosciences 9: 1823-1825. doi:10.5194/bg-9-1823-2012.
  • Stoy PC, Street LE, Johnson AV*, Prieto-Blanco A, Ewing SA (2012) Temperature, heat flux, and reflectance of common subarctic mosses and lichens under field conditions: Might changes to community composition impact climate-relevant surface fluxes Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research 44(4): 500-508. doi: 10.1657/1938-4246-44.4
  • Bauerle WL, Oren R, Way DA, Qian SS, Stoy PC, Thornton PE, Bowden JD, Hoffman FM, Reynolds RF (2012) Photoperiodic regulation of the seasonal pattern of photosynthetic capacity and the implications for carbon cycling. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109: 8612-8617. doi/10.1073/pnas.1119131109l
  • Detto M, Molini A, Katul GG, Stoy PC, Palmroth S, Baldocchi DD (2012) Causality and persistence in ecological systems: a non-parametric spectral Granger causality approach. The American Naturalist 179: 524-535.