Source: PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
DEVELOPING A WEB-BASED FORECASTING TOOL FOR NUTRIENT MANAGEMENT
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0228200
Grant No.
2012-67019-19296
Project No.
PEN04466
Proposal No.
2011-03860
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
A1441
Project Start Date
Mar 1, 2012
Project End Date
Feb 28, 2018
Grant Year
2012
Project Director
Drohan, P.
Recipient Organization
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY
208 MUELLER LABORATORY
UNIVERSITY PARK,PA 16802
Performing Department
Ecosystem Science & Management
Non Technical Summary
US and state nutrient management planning provides strategic guidance that, in the best cases, educates farmers and others involved in nutrient management to make prudent management decisions. The strategic guidance provided by nutrient management plans does not provide the day-to-day support required to make operational decisions, particularly when and where to apply nutrients over the short term. These short-term decisions on when and where to apply nutrients can make the difference between whether the nutrients impact water quality or are efficiently utilized by crops. Infiltrating rainfall events occurring on the heels of broadcast nutrient application are beneficial, as they will wash soluble nutrients into the soil where they are used by crops. Rainfall events that generate runoff shortly after nutrients are broadcast will wash off applied nutrients, producing the largest losses of nutrients possible from that site. Our goal is to develop a research driven support tool for nutrient management, the Fertilizer Forecaster, which identifies the relative probability of runoff or infiltrating events in Pennsylvania (PA) landscapes. This tool will support field specific decisions by farmers on when and where to apply fertilizers and manures over 24, 48 and 72 hour periods. Our objectives are to: (1) monitor agricultural hillslopes in watersheds representing four of the five Physiographic Provinces of the Chesapeake Bay basin; (2) validate a high resolution mapping model that identifies soils prone to runoff; (3) develop an empirically based approach to relate state-of-the-art weather forecast variables to site-specific rainfall infiltration or runoff occurrence; (4) test the empirical forecasting model against alternative approaches to forecasting runoff occurrence; and (5) recruit farmers from the four watersheds to use web-based forecast maps in daily manure and fertilizer application decisions. Data from on-farm trials will be used to assess farmer fertilizer, manure, and tillage management decisions before and after conscientious use of the Fertilizer Forecaster, and will help to understand not only the effectiveness of the tool, but also characteristics of farmers with the greatest potential to benefit from such a tool. Feedback from on-farm trials will be used to refine a final tool for delivery to the PA Conservation Commission. We hope that the Fertilizer Forecaster will serve as the basis for state (PA), regional (Chesapeake Bay), and national changes in nutrient management planning. The proposed project is central to the objectives of AFRI's Management of Agroecosystems program area. Specifically, this project develops an innovative management practice that is designed to enhance the services of aquatic ecosystems by improving water quality and enhance the services of terrestrial ecosystems by increasing the efficiency of nutrient use by targeted crops.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
60%
Applied
30%
Developmental
10%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1120199205025%
1120199206125%
1120399205025%
1120399206125%
Knowledge Area
112 - Watershed Protection and Management;

Subject Of Investigation
0199 - Soil and land, general; 0399 - Watersheds and river basins, general;

Field Of Science
2050 - Hydrology; 2061 - Pedology;
Goals / Objectives
Our goal is to develop a research driven support tool for nutrient management, the Fertilizer Forecaster, which identifies the relative probability of runoff or infiltrating events in Pennsylvania (PA) landscapes. This tool will support field specific decisions by farmers on when and where to apply fertilizers and manures over 24, 48 and 72 hour periods. Our objectives are to: (1) monitor agricultural hillslopes in watersheds representing four of the five Physiographic Provinces of the Chesapeake Bay basin (Appalachian Piedmont (Conewago Creek watershed, PA), Appalachian Valley and Ridge Province - acid shale and sandstone (Mahantango Creek watershed, PA), Appalachian Valley and Ridge Province - karst (Spring Creek watershed, PA), Allegheny Plateau Province (Anderson Creek watershed, PA)); (2) validate a high resolution mapping model that identifies soils prone to runoff; (3) develop an empirically based approach to relate state-of-the-art weather forecast variables to site-specific rainfall infiltration or runoff occurrence; (4) test the empirical forecasting model against alternative approaches to forecasting runoff occurrence; and (5) recruit farmers from the four watersheds to use web-based forecast maps in daily manure and fertilizer application decisions. Feedback from on-farm trials will be used to refine a final tool for delivery to the PA Conservation Commission. We hope that the Fertilizer Forecaster will serve as the basis for state (PA), regional (Chesapeake Bay), and national changes in nutrient management planning. Site development and field monitoring will begin in 2012 and continue into 2015. Model and tool development will begin in 2012 and have an operating prototype available by 2014. The model and tool will be refined through 2016. An outside advisory panel consisting of farm professionals will be formed in 2012, and used throughout the project to advise on tool usage and improvement. Beginning in year 3 of the study, a beta version of the Fertilizer Forecaster will be provided to participating farmers, all of whom will be expected to use it on daily basis during periods of fertilizer and manure application. These members will also help to communicate the tools effectiveness. Following extensive model testing and review, a final model will be chosen and the Fertilizer Forecaster tool will be delivered to the PA Conservation Commission and published on their website (2016). The tool will be operational in all four watersheds where it was tested and developed; however, we will begin to educate users outside the region on the application of the tool and its potential usefulness in managing nutrient application. This will occur via a variety of regional outreach events that the grant team currently participates in. In addition, post-grant activity will involve obtaining additional funds to expand the Fertilizer Forecaster tool to the entire state.
Project Methods
The proposed research will take place in the major physiographic settings of PA, representing the upland provinces of the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Four watersheds, Conewago Creek (Appalachian Piedmont), Mahantango Creek (Appalachian Valley and Ridge - shale bedrock), Spring Creek (Appalachian Valley and Ridge - karst) and Anderson Creek (Allegheny Plateau) have been selected for the study based upon historical research activities by the investigators, established relationships with local farm communities, diversity of agricultural systems, and representation of the broader physiographic setting. Within each watershed, we will select two farms and apply a pedogenic model to differentiate soils prone to saturation or infiltration excess runoff. Participating farmers, members of the PA Conservation Commission, and PA NRCS will form a project advisory committee providing input into forecasting model selection and web-tool development. We will monitor soils prone to saturation and infiltration excess runoff, obtaining measurements of site meteorology, soil moisture, shallow groundwater depth, surface runoff occurrence and surface runoff volume. Monitoring results will be used to generate site-specific algorithms of runoff occurrence and compared with alternative forecasting models to assess the advantages of region-specific vs. generalized approaches. We will assess three modeling approaches for their potential to forecast surface runoff occurrence and serve as the basis for the web-based "Fertilizer Forecaster" tool: (1) runoff occurrence algorithms developed from hillslope monitoring; (2) saturation zone prediction models using a topographic index and daily water balance simulations; (3) NOAA River Forecast Center models that simulate daily runoff for large watersheds. Each model will be evaluated using standard skill measures that are used by the National Weather Service to verify rainfall occurrence forecasts. Forecasts of runoff occurrence by each of the models will be recorded and compared to observed data to evaluate the skill of 24, 48, and 72 hr forecasts using standard skill measures employed by the National Weather Service. We will build a prototype of the Fertilizer Forecaster using open source code that is freely available to the public. The prototype will use an Adobe Flash-based interface. We will develop the prototype version of the web-based tool for each runoff prediction model, and train participating farmers (the advisory panel) to use the tool as part of their daily nutrient management decision making. In order to assess the utility of the Fertilizer Forecaster in changing nutrient management decisions, we will ask participating farmers to initiate a log of daily nutrient management and tillage decisions for each field on their farm beginning at the start of the project. This dataset will be used to assess their fertilizer, manure, and tillage management decisions before and after use of the tool. Feedback from the farmers and the project advisory panel will be used to revise the tool and select the most suitable model. The final version of the web-based tool will be delivered to the PA Conservation Commission website.

Progress 03/01/12 to 02/28/18

Outputs
Target Audience:This last year has focused on development of the program code for the Fertilizer Forecaster and its WWW iterface. Dr. Tony Buda (USDA-ARS)and Stephen Crawford have led this effort. What is the Fertilizer Forecaster? The Fertilizer Forecaster is a short-term decision support tool for farmers and nutrient managers that provides one-, two-, and three-day forecasts of surface runoff risk in four mixed land-use watersheds typifying the physiography of the Upper Chesapeake Bay watershed. Runoff risk forecasts are offered at two different scales, including watershed-scale maps that display three tiers of surface runoff risk (low, medium, high) on a 2 km grid, and field-scale views that allow users to see areas of the landscape most likely to generate surface runoff. Runoff forecasts are updated at 8:00 AM each morning and posted to the Fertilizer Forecaster website shortly thereafter. The end-user is greeted with a map of the Upper Susquehanna River basin showing gridded runoff risk forecasts for the next 24 hours. The end-user can toggle between 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecasts of runoff risk and precipitation amount, as well as change overlays such as county boundaries, watershed boundaries, and outlines of the four study basins. Zoomable field-scale maps of runoff contributing areas are only provided for the four study basins at this time. Future iterations of the Fertilizer Forecaster will expand this capability to other areas of the Upper Susquehanna River basin. A prototype of the tool can be seen here:http://apps.cei.psu.edu/proto/fertforecaster/index.html A select group of target group users have been asked to periodically view the tool as updates occur, and provide feedback. These target group users includepotential users and land managers in the USA and even overseas (note that this tool has generated much interest in Ireland and Northern Ireland). We have also continued to engage our target audience of researchers by presenting on the tool at scientific meetings. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?PhD student Lauren Vitko defended her thesis in 2017and submitted the thesis. She has completed all requirements for graduation and will be granted her PhD summer 2018. Vitko is working to submit four manuscripts from her thesis and in support of this project. PhD student Fei Jiang began working with Patrick Drohanon research related to Vitko's thesis in the Mahntango, Conewago Creek and additonal Spring Creek watersheds of Pennsylvania. Jiang is also working with Dr. Ian Thomas (post-doc at UC Dublin) on incorporating his Critical Source area index (Thomas, I. A., Mellander, P. E., Murphy, P. N. C., Fenton, O., Shine, O., Djodjic, F., ... & Jordan, P. (2016). A sub-field scale critical source area index for legacy phosphorus management using high resolution data.Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,233, 238-252.)into her research on Functional Land Management (Schulte, R. P., Bampa, F., Bardy, M., Coyle, C., Creamer, R. E., Fealy, R., ... & O'Donoghue, C. (2015). Making the most of our land: managing soil functions from local to continental scale.Frontiers in Environmental Science,3, 81.). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Yes, in 2017 we not only made numerous presentations on the project to fellow researchers and land managers around the world, we also engaged tool target audience users via our tool development feedback requests. While tool feedback has been limited to a few individuals around the world, this feedback has been instrumental in tool refinement/improvement. Dr. Drohan's presentations at the European Geophysical Meeting greatly increased the tool's visibility in Western Europe and Ireland, which has led to several new collaborations. We have begun outling videos we will make for the project WWW site that explain the tool and show it's use. We hope to have these complete summer 2018. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?While the project has ended, the tool will go live for public use this summer (likely early June). This will allow farmers in the study watersheds to use the tool to evaluate their nutrient use risk in regards to rainfall. We will also seek additional funding from local, state, and federal government sources to expand the tool's use to watersheds elsewhere in the Chesapeake Bay. PhD student Lauren Vitko defended her thesis in 2017 and submitted the thesis. She has completed all requirements for graduation and will be granted her PhD summer 2018. Vitko is working to submit four manuscripts from her thesis and in support of this project. PhD student Fei Jiang began working with Patrick Drohan on research related to Vitko's thesis in the Mahntango, Conewago Creek and additonal Spring Creek watersheds of Pennsylvania. Jiang is also working with Dr. Ian Thomas (post-doc at UC Dublin) on incorporating his Critical Source area index (Thomas, I. A., Mellander, P. E., Murphy, P. N. C., Fenton, O., Shine, O., Djodjic, F., ... & Jordan, P. (2016). A sub-field scale critical source area index for legacy phosphorus management using high resolution data.Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,233, 238-252.) into her research on Functional Land Management (Schulte, R. P., Bampa, F., Bardy, M., Coyle, C., Creamer, R. E., Fealy, R., ... & O'Donoghue, C. (2015). Making the most of our land: managing soil functions from local to continental scale.Frontiers in Environmental Science,3, 81.). Dr. Tony Buda is leading two papers with one on the tool's software mechnaics and the second on thetool's general development and use.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We made substantial progress on the model behind the interface for the Fertilizer Forecaster WWW tool: http://apps.cei.psu.edu/proto/fertforecaster/index.html The coding mechanicsof the model are nearly finished for two scales of use and the interface is complete. We are still refining code, but the tool should go live in June 2018.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Drohan, P., Buda, A., Kleinman, P., Miller, D., Lin, H., Beegle, D., & Knight, P. (2017, April). USA Nutrient management forecasting via the" Fertilizer Forecaster": linking surface runoff, nutrient application and ecohydrology. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 19, p. 10536).
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Easton, Z.M., Kleinman, P.J., Buda, A.R., Goering, D., Emberston, N., Reed, S., Drohan, P.J., Walter, M.T., Guinan, P., Lory, J.A. and Sommerlot, A.R., 2017. Short-term forecasting tools for agricultural nutrient management. Journal of environmental quality, 46(6), pp.1257-1269.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Vitko, L., Drohan, P.J., Buda, A.R., Kleinman, P.J.A. 2017. Evaluating the Potential of Ground Penetrating RADAR to Model Soil Restrictive Layers. Abstract 108965. ASA, CSSA, SSSA Annual Meeting, Oct. 22-25, Tampa, Fl. Poster.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Drohan, P. (2017, April). Re-evaluating US Land Ownership and Management in Order to Effectively Combat Soil Degradation. In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts (Vol. 19, p. 10326).
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A.R. Buda (2017). Runoff forecasting tools in nutrient management. University of Maryland Extension Nutrient Management Update Meeting. December 6, 2017. Laurel, MD.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2017 Citation: A.R. Buda (2017). The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. Livestock and Poultry Environmental Learning Center Monthly Webinar Series (Title of webinar series: The Use of Runoff Risk Advisory Tools in Water Quality Protection). June 16, 2017.


Progress 03/01/16 to 02/28/17

Outputs
Target Audience:The target audience for the Fertilizer Forecaster project includes farmers and land managers, practitioners from local, state, and federal action agencies, and private industry. During this reporting period we have been working closely wiht the Mid-Atlantic River Forecasting Center andour programming group on theapplication's development. We have also explored the development of a text mesaging service tied to the MARFC runoff forecast as a preliminary draft of the tool at a broder grographical extent. We have presented the tool at several meetings and and we continue to develop publications. We have continued to update participating farmers and representatives from state and federal agencies, including the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA and PA branches), and the Pennsylvania Conservation Commission. Representatives from each of these agencies have agreed to serve on the project advisory panel and provide important feedback on the development and testing of the Fertilizer Forecaster. Changes/Problems:Lauren Vitko, PhD student on the project, took medical leave in October, 2016. She plans to complete her dissertation summer 2017. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Dr. Drohan led a 10-day agricultural exchange program in Ireland, May 2016, for Penn State undergraduates and graduate students.He visitied numerous agricultural operations Teagasc advises at and attended overview meetings with Teagasc and the Irish government agricultural authority. Peter Kleinman presented results of the project's analysis to state agency personel and farmers in September 2016 at a state agricultural meeting in Harrisburg, PA. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Results are being disseminated during this reporting period viatalks, professional development opportunities and publications. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to develop a cell-based text messaging version of our tool and finalize the computer and phone application for deployment on the research farms. We plan to develop and advertising program to launch the tool with the slogan: Use your head before you spread. We hope to have edia announcements through the region of the study and several news stories. We plan on submitting Lauren Vitko's thesis chapters for publication. Former project Post-Doc Jasmeet Lamba is finalizing two project publications.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Farm Monitoring Farm monitoring is approching completion for this project. All farms in the COnewago Watershed have now been taken offline. Monitoring in WE-38 watershed (USDA-ARS) has also been completed. Project Advisory Panel The project advisory panel is intended to provide input on all phases of the project, including runoff monitoring, forecasting model development and testing, and selection of the final model that will be used in the Fertilizer Forecaster decision support tool. During the project reporting period, we updatedrepresentatives from PA DEP, PA Conservation Commission, and PA NRCS, and Mid-Atlantic River Forecasting Center about current progress. Pedogenic model testing and development Doctoral student Lauren Vitko, (major advisor Drohan) is using pedogenic and geophysical techniques to develop a restrictive layer model across the four study watersheds. Restrictive layers are subsoil horizons high in clay, horizons exhibiting fragic properties or a fragipan, shallow bedrock, or the contact at a lithologic discontinuity; all can decrease the effective soil depth for water storage. As water percolates and fills pores in this depth-range, saturation can be more quickly achieved than in a soil without a restrictive layer, resulting in surface runoff. Soil Survey data is not produced at a high enough resolution for use in site-specific mapping of soils with restrictive horizons that can result in greater surface runoff. Working with Drs. Drohan, Buda, Kleinman, and other PhD committee members (Drs. Doug Miller and Jim Hamlet), Lauren has completed her thesis chapters but took a medical leave begining October 2016. She has recently notified Dr. Drohan (April 2017) she intends to defend by July 2017. Conservation Innovation Grant We supported an NRCS CIG proposal submitted by Nicole Embertson (Lynden, WA )("Demonstration and Implementation of Nutrient Management Advisory System for Protection of Water Quality in Wet Climates"! ) Teagasc and Collaboration We are collaborating with Per-Erik Mellander (Soil Scientist at teagasc in Wexford, IRE) and Ian Thomas (Post-Doc) University College Dublin on applyining Ian's HAS Index metholdogy to the WE-38 watershed in order to evaluate another way to assess hydrologically active areas affecting nutrient runoff. See: Thomas, I. A., Jordan, P., Shine, O., Fenton, O., Mellander, P. E., Dunlop, P., and Murphy, P. N. C. (2017). Defining optimal DEM resolutions and point densities for modelling hydrologically sensitive areas in agricultural catchments dominated by microtopography. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 54, 38-52. Thomas, I. A., Jordan, P., Mellander, P. E., Fenton, O., Shine, O., Ó hUallacháin, D., Creamer, R., McDonald, N.T., Dunlop, P., and Murphy, P. N. C. (2016). Improving the identification of hydrologically sensitive areas using LiDAR DEMs for the delineation and mitigation of critical source areas of diffuse pollution. Science of the Total Environment, 556, 276-290. Thomas, I.A., Mellander, P.E., Murphy, P.N.C., Fenton, O., Shine, O., Djodjic, F., Dunlop, P. and Jordan, P. (2016). A sub-field scale critical source area index for legacy phosphorus management using high resolution data. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 233, pp.238-252.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Drohan, P.J., Weitzman, J.N., Rider, M., Schwyter, A., Heron, T. 2016. Revaluating US land ownership and management in order to effectively combat soil degradation. Abstract # 199-3. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ. Nov. 6-9, 2016.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2017 Citation: Easton, Z.M., Kleinman, P.J., Buda, A.R., Goering, D., Emberston, N., Reed, S., Drohan, P.J., Walter, M.T., Guinan, P., Lory, J.A. and Sommerlot, A.R., 2017. Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management. Journal of Environmental Quality. doi:10.2134/jeq2016.09.0377
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Anthony Buda, Peter Kleinman, Ray Bryant, Gordon Folmar, Patrick Drohan, Lauren Vitko, Jasmeet Lamba, Douglas Beegle, Douglas Miller, Brian Bills, Paul Knight, and Henry Lin. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. 2016 NIFA-AFRI Project Director's Meeting.
  • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2016 Citation: Improved forecasting of nutrient runoff via high resolution geomorphic models. 2016 Spring Kappe Graduate Seminar, Penn State Env. Eng.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2017 Citation: A.R. Buda, L. Vitko, A. Collick, P. Drohan, H. Lin, R.B. Bryant and D.B. Beegle. Field scale lysimeters to assess nutrient management impacts on runoff. Trans. In press, American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers Journal.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: Drohan, P.J., Beaudette, D. 2016. Redefining the Fragipan to improve field recognition accuracy. Abstract # 211-6. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, Phoenix, AZ. Nov. 6-9, 2016.


Progress 03/01/15 to 02/29/16

Outputs
Target Audience:This year was largelly a data analysis year. Target audiences reached included collegaues at the Mid-Atlantic River Forecasting Center via several meetings to develop the final models for the Fertilizer Forecaster. In addition, via collaboration with the Susquehanna River basin Commission's Mr. Jamie Shallenberger, Dr. Drohan helped to implement a new landscape runoff model used by the SRBC for their Marcellus Shale gas sediment control project. This work was presented by Mr. Shallenberger and others at the SRBC. Our research on the Fertilizer Forecaster has also helped the SRBC to develop their "hydrologic alteration probability map". Dr. Drohan and project participants hosted mr. Ian Thomas (PhD Student, Agricultural Catchments Programme, Teagasc Research Centre, Johnstown Castle, Wexford, Ireland). Ian worked with Dr. Drohan's research group and the USDA-ARS research group on the Fertilizer Forecaster. At Mr. Thomas's invitation, Dr. Drohan travelled to Ireland in September of 2016 and presented on the Fertilizer Forecaster at the Teagasc Agricultural Catchments Programme in Wexford, Ireland.This meeting had in attendance farmers, program managers, NGO representatives and scientists from across Ireland's various environmental agencies. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided training and professional development for Jasmeet Lamba, a postdoctoral scholar on the project. Ms. Lauren Vitko received USDA-ARS training in various statistical techniques used to run models. Undergraduate student Katie Speicher received field hydrologic monitoring training and geophysical (GPR and EM induction) training. Dr. Drohan received project related training in Ireland during his attendance at the Teagasc Catchment's Conference. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Numerous presentations have been made in the United States and Ireland. See "Products" section of this report for a list. In addition a new University course was developed by Dr. Drohan based on this project. This course is called SOILS 499 and has a Spring 2016 semester component and a 10 day study abroad component with Teagasc in Wexford and Waterford Counties, Ireland. Course description: How do a landscape and its people evolve through time? SOILS 499A examines this question and focuses particularly on the role of land ownership, government, and its effect on people and natural resources, especially in the context of the evolution of culture, society, and civilization. Readings examine the role that forms of government have had in shaping culture and land tenure, management of natural resources with population growth, and the stability of civilizations. Finally, this course examines our current civilization in the context of past ones, and evaluates its future stability. Students admitted to the Maymester Ireland abroad program (SOILS 499b, 0.5 cr and assoc. fee) will work with Dr. Drohan and collaborators of his in the Teagasc agriculture and food development authority at Johnstown Castle, Wexford Ireland. We begin our trip by examining the history of Ireland with visits to the Irish National Heritage Park living history museum and then the Viking towns of Waterford and Wexford. These towns were also invaded by the Normans and important in the history of the Irish Rebellion. We will examine past agricultural and land tenure issues and their role in the Irish famine at New Ross when we visit the Dunbrody famine ship. We will investigate modern agricultural production practices with Irish sheep and dairy farmers and examine current agricultural challenges set forth under the Irish Agricultural directives Food Harvest 2020 and Foodwise 2025. We will examine soil and water protection under the Irish Environmental Protection Agency and visit several different land management projects. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?Prototype testing and initial release of Fertilizer Forecaster Our experience developing the Fertilizer Forecaster has demonstrated that the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model yields reliable predictions of surface runoff and interflow at the small basin scale (< 10 km2), and that daily runoff contributing areas inferred by model output can be disaggregated and mapped at the field level using various topographic indices. Moreover, because the SAC-SMA model is run regionally and nationally, its runoff forecasts can be readily extended to other regions beyond the four experimental basins where the model is being developed and tested. Therefore, our prototype runoff forecasting tool will be underpinned by the SAC-SMA model. It will be released in beta form later this spring, and a manuscript describing its development will be written this summer. Archives of runoff forecasts issued by the Fertilizer Forecaster for all four test basins are being accumulated and stored on a daily basis, and these will form the basis for a forthcoming manuscript (in 2017) on the model's forecasting skill at different lead times (e.g., 24-, 48-, and 72-hr forecasts). Project Advisory Panel The project advisory panel reviews all phases of the project, including runoff monitoring, forecasting model development and testing, and prototyping of the Fertilizer Forecaster. The panel is made up of one farmer from each of the four project watersheds, as well as representatives from PA DEP, PA Conservation Commission, and PA NRCS. In 2016, a prototype of the Fertilizer Forecaster will be made available to all advisory panel members for their review. We will specifically be asking them to assess whether the prototype is useful and user-friendly, as well its potential for adoption in nutrient management in Pennsylvania. We will then revise the prototype based on feedback from the advisory panel.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Postdoctoral Scholar Jasmeet Lamba worked with our research group for just under one year. NIFA support for Jasmeet was leveraged with USDA-ARS funds. We held several meetings (informally by phone and formally in person) with members of the runoff forecasting project team, including representatives from Penn State, USDA-ARS, and NOAA's Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC). The two formal (face-to-face) meetings were held on September 3, 2015 and March 24, 2016. The goals of these meetings were to discuss optimal ways for portraying runoff risk in our runoff forecasting prototype. Based on the outcome of the most recent meeting in March, we decided to depict maps of watershed scale runoff risk using a set of soil saturation and runoff contributing area thresholds that enable 2×2 km forecast cells from the SAC-SMA model to be color-coded green for low risk, yellow for moderate risk, and red for high risk. By zooming in on a 2×2 km cell, one can then obtain a field-scale view of the forecast runoff contributing area, which is mapped spatially using simple depth-to-water indices created from LiDAR digital elevation models. Future iterations of these field-level maps will incorporate information from the digital soil mapping efforts led by Lauren Vitko, PhD student in Ecosystem Science and Management. Drs. Buda and Lamba (postdoc on the Fertilizer Forecaster project) were invited to attend a meeting on runoff forecasting tools organized by the leadership of USDA NRCS and NOAA's North Central River Forecasting Center in St. Paul, Minnesota. The meeting was held at the USDA South Building in Washington, D.C. on April 16, 2015. Drs. Buda and Lamba gave a brief presentation on the Fertilizer Forecaster and contributed to a discussion on developing, testing, and expanding runoff risk tools in nutrient management. Drs. Buda, Kleinman, Drohan, and Lamba were invited to participate in the development of a national NRCS Conservation Innovation Grant (CIG) on runoff forecasting tools led by Whatcom Conservation District in Lynden, Washington. The proposed research involves qualitatively and quantitatively comparing several of the most prominent runoff forecasting tools across the US, including the Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (Wisconsin), Application Risk Management System (Washington), Fertilizer Forecaster (Pennsylvania), and Saturated Area Forecast Tool (Virginia). The grant was successful, and work on the project began this in spring 2016. Initial progress includes a qualitative comparison of the four runoff tools, which addresses and expands one of the central goals of the current AFRI project. A paper describing the results of the qualitative comparison is in the works, and will be submitted to the Journal of Environmental Quality later this spring. We continue to monitor runoff occurrence in all four project watersheds. Data from these efforts are being used to confirm runoff predictions by the Fertilizer Forecaster and assess overall model skill. In addition, wet boot mapping in the Mattern and FD-36 watersheds will be used to corroborate field-level forecast maps of runoff contributing areas made by the Fertilizer Forecaster. PhD Student Lauren Vitko has drafted her thesis and 4 peer-reviewed papers outlining her restrictive layer modeling efforts under the grant team's mentorship. These papers outline the geophysical, pedological, and hydrologic techniques used to identify and map restrctive layers at a high resolution across several study watershedlocations. Ms. Vitko will be defending her thesis in May 2016.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: L. Vitko, Drohan, P., Lambda, J., Buda, A., Bryant, R., Kleinman, P., Miller, D., Bills, B. Modelling subsoil restrictive layers to predict their control on subsurface and surface catchment hydrology. USDA NRCS National Cooperators Meeting, Duluth MN. Poster Presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: P. Drohan, Buda, A., Kleinman, P., Bryant, R., Folmar, G., P., Lamba, J., Vitko, L., Miller, D., Bills, B., Knight, P. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. Catchment Science 2015, Wexford, Ireland. Oral presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: A. Buda, Kleinman, P., Bryant, R., Folmar, G., Drohan, P., Lamba, J., Vitko, L., Miller, D., Bills, B., Knight, P. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. USDA-NIFA Project Directors Meeting. Oral presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2016 Citation: L. Vitko, Drohan, P., Lambda, J., Buda, A., Bryant, R., Kleinman, P., Miller, D., Bills, B. Modeling subsoil restrictive layers to predict their control on subsurface and surface catchment hydrology. Catchment Science 2015, Wexford, Ireland. Poster presentation.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Buda, A., Kleinman, P.J., Bryant, R., Folmar, G., Drohan, P.J., Vitko, L., Lamba, J., Beegle, D., Bills, B., Knight, P. 2015. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. Meeting with USDA NRCS (April 16, 2015), Washington, D.C.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Buda, A., Kleinman, P.J., Bryant, R., Folmar, G., Drohan, P.J., Vitko, L., Lamba, J., Beegle, D., Bills, B., Knight, P. 2015. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. NIFA-AFRI Project Director's Meeting (July 29, 2015), Greensboro, North Carolina.


Progress 03/01/14 to 02/28/15

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience for the Fertilizer Forecaster project includes farmers and land managers, practitioners from local, state, and federal action agencies, and private industry. During this reporting period (March 1, 2014 - February 28, 2015), we have continued to update participating farmers and representatives from state and federal agencies, including the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA and PA branches), and the Pennsylvania Conservation Commission. Representatives from each of these agencies have agreed to serve on the project advisory panel and provide important feedback on the development and testing of the Fertilizer Forecaster. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has provided training and professional development for undergraduate students Alexandra Wagner and William Wall, PhD student Lauren Vitko, and Post-Doctoral Scholar Jasmeet Lambda. The project has been used as a case study in several course at Penn State (SOILS 416, Soil Genesis; SOILS 403, Soil Morphology Practicum; and in sveral guest lectures to various classes). Via a Penn State Webinar series, we were able to present our research on the Fertilizer Forecaster to a large number of farmers, land managers, and outreach specialists in the Mid-Atlantic. Our research sites are being used in an upcoming documentary highlighting phosphorus. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Given this year was largely a data-gathering year, results were selectively presented. Three presentations on the Fertilizer Forecaster project were delivered Title: The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management Authors: Anthony Buda, Peter Kleinman, Ray Bryant, Gordon Folmar, Patrick Drohan, Lauren Vitko, Jasmeet Lamba, Douglas Beegle, Douglas Miller, Brian Bills, and Paul Knight Meeting: Penn State Water Webinar Series (September 24, 2014); http://extension.psu.edu/natural-resources/water/webinar-series/past-webinars/fertilizer-forecaster-a-new-predictive-tool-for-runoff Title: The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management Authors: Anthony Buda, Peter Kleinman, Ray Bryant, Gordon Folmar, Patrick Drohan, Lauren Vitko, Jasmeet Lamba, Douglas Beegle, Douglas Miller, Brian Bills, Paul Knight, and Henry Lin Meeting: NIFA-AFRI Project Director's Meeting (October 29, 2014) Title: Using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model to provide short-term forecasts of surface runoff for daily decision making in nutrient management Authors: Anthony R. Buda, Seann M. Reed, Jasmeet Lamba, Gordon J. Folmar, Peter J.A. Kleinman, Ray B. Bryant, Paul G. Knight, Douglas Miller, Brian Bills, Peter Ahnert, and Patrick Drohan Meeting: AWRA National Meeting, Tysons Corner, VA (Nov. 3-6, 2014) What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Project Advisory Panel The project advisory panel is intended to provide input on all phases of the project, including runoff monitoring, forecasting model development and testing, and selection of the final model that will be used in the Fertilizer Forecaster decision support tool. During the 2013 project reporting period, we successfully recruited one farmer from each of the four project watersheds, as well as representatives from PA DEP, PA Conservation Commission, and PA NRCS, to serve on the Project Advisory Panel. The project advisory panel will meet in Summer 2015 at Penn State to see a draft of the Fertilizer Forecaster Tool. Pedogenic model testing and development Doctoral student Lauren Vitko, (major advisor Drohan) is using pedogenic and geophysical techniques to develop a restrictive layer model across the four study watersheds. We are nearing completion of a large sampling effort in the WE-38 watershed. This will be one of the largest spatial assessments of soil properties ever conducted. Using ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electromagnetic induction (EM), doctoral student Lauren Vitko is refining restrictive layer models fortwo watersheds in WE-38. She has enhanced her modeling activity with detailed pedologic analysis of soil properties found in the restrictive layer. These models are being confirmed at present with independent sampling efforts and subsurface hydrologic measurements of restrictive layer permeability, water content, and micromorphology. Multipe preceiptitation events were sampled in 2014 by electromagnetic induction in order to capture patterns of surface runnof and wetness. These data sets are being used iwth the subsurface GPR restrive layer mapping in order to model the driving controls on water movement out of the watershed. The software protoptype of the Fertilizer Forecaster was delayed due to weather delays that prevented timely field sampling in the winter of 2013/2014. We are back on schedule and expect the interface prototype by the summer meeting. We are working closely with the Virginia Tech team and hope to have their model running in our Conewago and We-38 watersheds by the next reporting period. Jasmeet Lambda met with the Cornell/Virginia Tech faculty in the Fall in order to learn how to run their model.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? 2014 was an intense data-gathering year. Our focus was on developing data sets for analysis and interpretation. A post-doctoral scholar has been hired: Jasmeet Lambda from Univ. Wisconsin, Madison. We had two formal meetings with the River Forecast Center in 2014. Meeting 1 on May 1, 2014 was to present results of an assessment of SAC-SMA's skill in predicting runoff, as well as forecasting its occurrence, in WE-38, FD-36, Mattern, and the hillslope pits (multiple scales). Meeting 2 on September 10, 2014 was to discuss options for representing runoff risk in WE-38 (i.e., how to develop reasonable runoff thresholds in SAC-SMA that are tied to water quality risk). We also held numerous phone calls and exchanged emails over the past year, which ranged from simple exchanges of data and information, to how we might expand our efforts to other areas. We are nearing completion of soil sampling for assessment of the restrictive layer model in WE-38. Approximately 130, 3 inch soil cores have been sampled, processed, and sub-samples are now under further total elemental, , bulk density, and particle size analysis. We are nearing completion of further core sampling in sub-watersheds Mattern and FD-36 for specific modeling of the restrictive layer using ground penetrating radar and electromagnetic induction. In addition, magnetic susceptibility measurements are being made on these soils FOR We have conducted event sampling to map surface wetness patterns using electromagnetic induction. About 5 events across select project watersheds have been sampled. We have conducted intensive subsurface bedrock surveys in Spring Creek watershed as part of a sub-study of restrictive layers and their effect on surface runoff generation. Thirty-eight access tubes have been installed at FD-36 for soil moisture measurements at 15 cm intervals using a Trime TDR. We have retired sampling wells in three farms in the Conewago watershed. watershed due to their data not being needed for project completion. Borehole permeameter measurements have been made in select area of WE-38 to quantify permeability of the restrictive layer. Project team members continue to work with several investigators from a companion project funded by USDA-NIFA-AFRI (Twenty-first century development of 21st century precision agriculture for water quality protection; led by Zach Easton from Virginia Tech and Todd Walter from Cornell) to discuss similarities between the two projects and to look for opportunities to unite the two efforts. Postdoctoral Scholar Lambda met this period with Dr. Easton's group in an effort to build upon our modeling efforts across our study watersheds.

Publications

  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Buda, A.R. The role of hydrology in connecting agricultural phosphorus sources to surface water. Presentation and expert panel session at: The State of The Science of Phosphorus, January 30, 2015. Chesapeake College. Wye Mills, MD. https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL27-Q8yeZ7-4meDURql138LSxrofq3y_y
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kleinman, P. and D. Beegle. Agricultural Phosphorus Sources: Production Achievements and Environmental Liabilities. Presentation and expert panel session at: The State of The Science of Phosphorus, January 30, 2015. Chesapeake College. Wye Mills, MD
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Buda, A., P. Kleinman, R. Bryant, G. Folmar, P. Drohan, L. Vitko, J. Lamba, D. Beegle, D. Miller, B. Bills, and P. Knight. September 24, 2014. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. Penn State Water Webinar Series; http://extension.psu.edu/natural-resources/water/webinar-series/past-webinars/fertilizer-forecaster-a-new-predictive-tool-for-runoff
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Buda, A., P. Kleinman, R. Bryant, G. Folmar, P. Drohan, L. Vitko, J. Lamba, D. Beegle, D. Miller, B. Bills, P. Knight, and H. Lin. October 29, 2014. The Fertilizer Forecaster: guiding short-term decisions in nutrient management. NIFA-AFRI Project Director's Meeting.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Buda, A. R., S. M. Reed, J. Lamba, G. J. Folmar, P. J. A. Kleinman, R. B. Bryant, P. G. Knight, D. Miller, B. Bills, P. Ahnert, and P. Drohan. Nov. 3-6, 2014. Using the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model to provide short-term forecasts of surface runoff for daily decision making in nutrient management. AWRA National Meeting, Tysons Corner, VA.


Progress 03/01/13 to 02/28/14

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience for the Fertilizer Forecaster project includes farmers and land managers, practitioners from local, state, and federal action agencies, and private industry. During the current reporting period, we developed and refined a pedogenic model that predicts the spatial extent and depth (0.65 vs. 0.85 m) of restrictive layers in soils for each of the four project watersheds. We gave a presentation to representatives from the Pennsylvania Natural Resources Conservation Service (PA NRCS), Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PA DEP), and Pennsylvania Conservation Commission demonstrating the applicability of the pedogenic models to nutrient management (including the Fertilizer Forecaster). We also worked closely with the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center to develop a runoff prediction tool based on the distributed version of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model. We continued to collaborate with the team from Virginia Tech and Cornell Universities to incorporate their soil saturation prediction model into our proposed forecasting system. Runoff monitoring continued on two farms within each of the four project watersheds. Finally, a postdoctoral scholar was hired on the project, with a projected start date of July 2014. Changes/Problems: None at this time. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Ph.D. student Lauren Vitko received funding from the National Science Foundation and Soil Science Society of America to attend the 2013 Soil TREC meeting and workshop on “Soil Carbon Sequestration for Climate, Food Security and Ecosystem Services conference and the Land Use Practice and Sustainable Use of Soil” in Reykjavik, Iceland. 2. Dr. Drohan gave a presentation on the Fertilizer Forecaster project at the NRI/AFRI/NIWQP-CEAP Project Director’s Meeting in Annapolis, MD. 3. Dr. Buda presented with several project team members on research that is related to the Fertilizer Forecaster. The presentation summarized hydropedological approaches to nutrient management in the Mahantango Creek watershed, and focused on development of the restrictive layer models and their application to the Fertilizer Forecaster decision support tool. Abstract 257-6. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Oral presentation. 4. Drs. Drohan and Buda gave a presentation to representatives from the Pennsylvania Natural Resources Conservation Service (PA NRCS), Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PA DEP), and Pennsylvania Conservation Commission demonstrating the applicability of restrictive layer prediction models to decision support tools in nutrient management, including the Fertilizer Forecaster. 5. Dr. Drohan employed two undergraduate students in Summer 2013 who assisted Ph.D. student Lauren Vitko with data collection on the Fertilizer Forecaster project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Dr. Drohan gave a presentation on the Fertilizer Forecaster project at the NRI/AFRI/NIWQP-CEAP Project Director’s Meeting in Annapolis, MD. Buda, A. R., Kleinman, P.J., Drohan, P.J., Williams, M.R., Vitko, L.F., Lin, H., Folmar, G.J., and R.B. Bryant. 2013. Applying Hydropedology To Nutrient Management In The Northeastern US: Lessons Learned From The Mahantango Creek Experimental Watershed. Abstract 257-6. ASA, CSSA, & SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Oral Presentation. Vitko, L.F., Drohan, P.J., Buda, A.R., and P.J. Kleinman. 2013. Soil and Topographic Influences On Spatiotemporal Patterns of Saturated Zones. Abstract 354-3. ASA, CSSA, & SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Poster Presentation. (Drohan Ph.D. student) Drohan, P.J. 2013. Relevance of the Soil Survey to Hydrology: Can We Take a Mulligan? Abstract 257-3. ASA, CSSA, & SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Oral Presentation. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? The major objectives for year 3 of the Fertilizer Forecaster project are to (1) convene a meeting of the Project Advisory Panel; (2) continue runoff monitoring on selected farms within each of the four project watersheds; (3) finalize development of web-based interface and begin on-farm testing; (4) revise the web-based interface based on feedback from farmers and members of the project advisory panel; (5) validate restrictive layer model prediction capability; (6) compare the use of Electromagnetic Induction data and restrictive layer modeling to refine the prediction of wet soil occurrence. Convene a meeting of the Project Advisory Panel We will convene a meeting of the project advisory panel during the summer of 2014. The goals of the meeting will be to provide a progress report to panel members on monitoring and modeling efforts in each of the four project watersheds, as well as to outline next steps in the development of the Fertilizer Forecaster. Convene a meeting of the Project Advisory Panel We will continue to monitor runoff occurrence in each of the four project watersheds. Data will be used to develop empirical runoff prediction equations (according to the methods of Buda et al., 2013) for each of the sites. In addition, runoff occurrence data will be used to assess the skill of the fully distributed SAC-SMA runoff forecasting model that is currently undergoing testing and refinement. Continue runoff monitoring in project watersheds We will continue to monitor runoff occurrence in each of the four project watersheds. Data will be used to develop empirical runoff prediction equations (according to the methods of Buda et al., 2013) for each of the sites. In addition, runoff occurrence data will be used to assess the skill of the SAC-SMA runoff forecasting model that is currently undergoing testing and refinement. Finalize development of web-based interface and begin on-farm testing We will finalize the development of prototypes of the Fertilizer Forecaster web-based interface for each of the four project watersheds. We will test the interface in each watershed and evaluate model forecasting skill through the end of 2014. On-farm testing of the web-based interface will begin in 2015. Revise the web-based interface based on feedback from farmers and members of the project advisory panel On-farm testing on the web-based interface will begin in 2015. We will use feedback from farmers and members of the project advisory panel to revise the tool. Validate restrictive layer model prediction capability We will use our new soil sampling database of restrictive layer occurrence to refine our geophysics based restrictive layer model . Compare the use of electromagnetic induction data and restrictive layer modeling to refine the prediction of wet soil occurrence and distribution. We will explore the utility of our intense electromagnetic induction dataset and our restrictive layer model in connecting surface and subsurface flow patterns that result in high-resolution prediction of wet soil extents.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Project advisory panel The project advisory panel is intended to provide input on all phases of the project, including runoff monitoring, forecasting model development and testing, and selection of the final model that will be used in the Fertilizer Forecaster decision support tool. We delayed the initial meeting of the project advisory panel until the summer of 2015 in order to provide additional time for the development and testing of runoff forecasting models in each of the project watersheds. Runoff monitoring Runoff monitoring was initiated during the summer months of 2013 and continues on all four project watersheds. We anticipate having one year's worth of runoff monitoring data by the summer of 2014. Data from the monitoring efforts will be used to develop logistic regression models of runoff occurrence, as well as to verify and downscale predictions made by the distributed version of the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model. Electromagnetic Induction We are conducting intense electromagnetic induction (EMI) surveys of the Mahantango Creek watershed in order to map surface and subsurface soil wetness patterns. Wetness maps inferred from EMI surveys will be compared against detailed monitoring of soil moisture and subsurface flow. These maps will also serve as a critical layer against which predictions of soil saturation (made by Cornell’s soil saturation model) will be corroborated. Soil Sampling to Predict Restrictive Layer Types We are sampling >200 soil cores across the WE-38 watershed ( 7.3 km2 subwatershed of Mahantango Creek) in order to map the distribution and kind of restrictive layers as predicted by our geophysics-based restrictive layer model. Begin testing of runoff forecasting models We worked with hydrologists from the Mid-Atlantic River Forecasting Center to test and evaluate runoff predictions made using the distributed version of the SAC-SMA model in the Mahantango Creek watershed. The skill of the model in predicting runoff occurrence was deemed good to excellent, especially at the scale of headwater watersheds (~ 10 ha). We are currently working toward developing a probabilistic runoff forecasting system using an ensemble of SAC-SMA models initiated using output from the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (a compendium of 21 different weather forecasts). It is this version of the SAC-SMA model that will underpin our initial prototype of the web-based interface for the Mahantango Creek watershed. Begin development of the web-based interface As mentioned above, we are close to completing a working prototype of the web-based interface for the Mahantango Creek watershed. We expect to have a first draft of the prototype completed prior to the end of the Year 2 reporting period (May 31, 2014). Hire a postdoctoral scholar We hired a postdoctoral scholar on the Fertilizer Forecaster project. The projected start date for the scholar is late-July or early-August, 2014.

Publications

  • Type: Other Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Drohan, P.J. Buda, A., Kleinman, P., Byant, R. 2013. Pennsylvania Natural Resources Conservation Service (PA NRCS), Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (PA DEP), and Pennsylvania Conservation Commission project update demonstrating the applicability of restrictive layer prediction models to decision support tools in nutrient management, including the Fertilizer Forecaster.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Buda, A. R., Kleinman, P.J., Drohan, P.J., Williams, M.R., Vitko, L.F., Lin, H., Folmar, G.J., and R.B. Bryant. 2013. Applying Hydropedology To Nutrient Management In The Northeastern US: Lessons Learned From The Mahantango Creek Experimental Watershed. Abstract 257-6. ASA, CSSA, & SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Oral Presentaion.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Vitko, L.F., Drohan, P.J., Buda, A.R., and P.J. Kleinman. 2013. Soil and Topographic Influences On Spatiotemporal Patterns of Saturated Zones. Abstract 354-3. ASA, CSSA, & SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Poster Presentaion. (Drohan Ph.D. student)
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Drohan, P.J. 2013. Relevance of the Soil Survey to Hydrology: Can We Take a Mulligan? Abstract 257-3. ASA, CSSA, & SSSA Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL. Oral Presentaion.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Drohan, P.J., Buda, A.R., P.J. Kleinman, Vitko, L.F., Lin, H., Bryant, R., Miller, D., Bills, B. 2013. Fertilizer Forecaster Update. NIFA Project Directors Meeting, Annapolis MD. July, 2013.


Progress 03/01/12 to 02/28/13

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience for the Fertilizer Forecaster project includes farmers and land managers, practitioners from local, state, and federal action agencies, and private industry. During the reporting period (May 2012 – May 2013), we contacted two farmers in each of the four project watersheds (Anderson Creek, Spring Creek, Mahantango Creek, and Conewago Creek), and met with them individually to explain the rationale for the Fertilizer Forecaster decision support tool. During the meetings we also obtained permission to conduct runoff monitoring on their respective farms and requested their participation on the project advisory panel. In addition to meeting with farmers, we met with representatives from state and federal agencies, including the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (USDA and PA branches), and the Pennsylvania Conservation Commission. Representatives from each of these agencies have agreed to serve on the project advisory panel and provide important feedback on the development and testing of the Fertilizer Forecaster. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Doctoral student Lauren Vitko has won several awards related to, or in support of, her work on the project. Lauren was awarded funds from the National Agriculture and Biotechnology Council and Penn State to attend the June 11-13, 2012 meeting in Fayetteville, AR. Lauren was awarded funds through the National Science Foundation to attend a SoilTrEC training event July 16-19, 2012 in Crete. Lauren won 3rd place in the Soil Science Society of America, Pedology Division poster contest at the 2012 meeting in Cincinnati. Dr. Kleinman gave a brief overview presentation on the Fertilizer Forecaster project at the NRI/AFRI/NIWQP-CEAP Project Director’s Meeting in Portland, OR. (May 24, 2012). Dr. Drohan presented a poster highlighting the project at the June 11-13, 2012 National Agriculture and Biotechnology Meeting in Fayetteville, AR. Doctoral student Lauren Vitko presented a poster outlining the pedogenic model that is being developed to predict restrictive layers at the June 11-13, 2012 National Agriculture and Biotechnology Meeting in Fayetteville, AR. Five different presentations on the Fertilizer Forecaster project were delivered to soil scientists at the Pennsylvania Association of Professional Soil Scientists Annual Meeting (Hershey, PA; September 28, 2012). These mere made by Buda, Drohan and Kleinman, doctoral student Lauren Vitko, and Conewago Creek Initiative /Penn State collaborator Kristen Kyler. This meeting also included a half-day field tour to one of the project sites, as well as to a nearby farm site proposed as a test case for the hydrologic models that underpin the Fertilizer Forecaster. The pedogenic restrictive layer model was run for both properties and its accuracy was evaluated in the field. Doctoral student Lauren Vitko presented a poster with along with several project team members on her research using geophysical based site-specific techniques to map of fragic properties and constrain hillslope hydrologic controls on surface runoff generation. Abstract 137-4. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, Cincinnati, OH. Poster presentation. Dr. Buda presented a poster with several project team members on research that is related to the Fertilizer Forecaster. The poster summarized phosphorus transport by surface and subsurface flow pathways from two of the Fertilizer Forecaster sites in the Mahantango Creek watershed. Abstract 335. ASA-CSSA-SSSA Annual Meeting, Cincinnati, OH. Poster presentation. Dr. Buda gave a brief presentation on the Fertilizer Forecaster project as part of the Manure Application Risk Management Tools and Advisory Systems webinar series, which was sponsored by the Livestock and Poultry Environmental Learning Center (January 25, 2013). How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results of the Fertilizer Forecaster project have primarily been disseminated through presentations to stakeholders and via press releases by the media. Kleinman, P.J.A., A.R. Buda, R.B. Bryant, P.J. Drohan, D.B. Beegle, D. Miller, P. Knight, and H. Lin. 2012. The Fertilizer Forecaster: a web-based forecasting tool for nutrient management. Presented at the NRI/AFRI/NIWQP-CEAP Project Director’s Meeting. Portland, OR. (May 24, 2012). Buda, A.R., P.J.A. Kleinman, R.B. Bryant, P.J. Drohan, D.B. Beegle, D. Miller, P. Knight, L. Vitko, and H. Lin. 2012. The Fertilizer Forecaster: a web-based forecasting tool for nutrient management. Presented at the Pennsylvania Association of Professional Soil Scientists Annual Meeting. Hershey, PA. (September 28, 2012). Buda, A.R., P.J.A. Kleinman, R.B. Bryant, P.J. Drohan, D.B. Beegle, D. Miller, P. Knight, L. Vitko, and H. Lin. 2013. The Fertilizer Forecaster: a web-based forecasting tool for nutrient management. Presented as part of the Manure Application Risk Management Tools and Advisory Systems webinar series sponsored by the Livestock and Poultry Environmental Learning Center. (January 25, 2013). http://www.extension.org/pages/67086/manure-application-risk-management-tools-and-advisory-systems. Press release by Penn State University and subsequent coverage by other media outlets. Gill, C. 2013. 'Fertilizer Forecaster' aimed at improving water quality. Penn State Live. (March. 13, 2013). http://www.cac.psu.edu/story/151033/2012/03/07/fertilizer-forecaster-aimed-improving-water-quality Northcentralpa.com. 2013. 'Fertilizer Forecaster' aimed at improving water quality. Penn State Live. (March. 13, 2013). http://www.northcentralpa.com/feeditem/2012-03-07_fertilizer-forecaster-aimed-improving-water-quality Gantdaily.com. 2013. 'Fertilizer Forecaster' aimed at improving water quality. Penn State Live. (March. 13, 2013). http://gantdaily.com/2012/03/09/fertilizer-forecaster-aimed-at-improving-water-quality/ What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? The major objectives for year 2 of the Fertilizer Forecaster project are to (1) convene a meeting of the Project Advisory Panel; (2) continue runoff monitoring on selected farms within each of the four project watersheds; (3) test the use of electromagnetic induction (EM) as a geophysical tool to detect wet soil surfaces in near real-time (with Doctoral student Lauren Vitko); (4) complete restrictive layer model development and refinement with Vitko; (5) begin developing and testing the three runoff forecasting models; (6) begin development of the web-based interface for the Fertilizer Forecaster; (7) hire a post-doctoral scholar to apply Vitko’s restrictive layer model across larger watershed areas and to support development of the Fertilizer Forecaster. Convene a meeting of the Project Advisory Panel We will be organizing a meeting of the project advisory panel during the summer of 2013. The goals of the meeting will be to provide a progress report to panel members on monitoring and modeling efforts in each of the four project watersheds, as well as to outline next steps in the development of the Fertilizer Forecaster. Continue runoff monitoring in project watersheds Beginning in summer 2013, each farm in the four project watersheds will be equipped with two edge-of-field runoff monitoring stations (one station in an upslope position characterized by infiltration excess runoff, and a second station in a lower landscape position characterized by saturation excess runoff). We will monitor runoff occurrence at each of these stations for the coming year (May 2013 through May 2014). Data will be used to develop empirical runoff prediction equations (according to the methods of Buda et al., 2013) for each of the sites. In addition, runoff occurrence data will be used to assess the skill of two other runoff forecasting models (NOAA River Forecast Center models and Cornell’s saturation zone prediction models) that we will begin developing and testing this year. Test the use of electromagnetic induction (EM) as a geophysical tool to detect wet surfaces in near real-time (with Doctoral student Lauren Vitko) To date, we have been using “wet-boot” mapping as a simple method for outlining the spatial extent of wet soils. We propose that electromagnetic induction (EM) will greatly improve our mapping of wet soils over the traditional wet-boot method since EM surveys will result in thousands of point observations across a study area. Running multiple EM surveys following a precipitation event that results in surface saturation can provide a high-resolution spatial and temporal map of soil wetness that could not be achieved by wet-boot mapping. We believe this will greatly improve or evaluation of the pedogenic restrictive models that Vitko is developing, and improve the accuracy of the forecasts provided by the Fertilizer Forecaster. Begin developing and testing three runoff forecasting models Three modeling approaches will be assessed for their potential to forecast runoff occurrence in each of the four project watersheds: (1) empirical runoff occurrence algorithms (Buda et al., 2013); (2) saturated zone prediction models (e.g., those proposed by the Cornell team led by Zach Easton and Todd Walter); (3) NOAA River Forecast Center models (e.g., Wisconsin Manure Advisory System). We will begin developing and testing each of these models in year 2 of the project. Because the sites in the Mahantango Creek watershed have the longest continuing runoff occurrence datasets, we will focus our modeling efforts here first, and then expand to the other three watersheds as data from runoff monitoring at those sites accrue with time. We will leverage collaborations with the Cornell team to help with development of the saturation zone prediction models. In addition, we will work closely with project leaders from the Wisconsin Manure Advisory System and hydrologists from the Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center to initiate the NOAA River Forecast Center models. Begin development of the web-based interface We will begin working on a prototype of the Fertilizer Forecasting during the fall of 2013. Members of the project team will meet regularly to discuss the design and layout of the web-based interface, specifically focusing on how output from the runoff forecasting models, geospatial datasets, and weather forecast data will be processed and displayed. We anticipate working closely with our counterparts from the Cornell team, as well as the Wisconsin Manure Advisory System as this phase of the project progresses. Hire a post-doctoral scholar to apply Vitko’s restrictive model across larger watershed areas and to support development of the Fertilizer Forecaster The post-doctoral scholar on this project will provide valuable modeling assistance when developing the Fertilizer Forecaster for the larger study area watersheds. The postdoc’s expertise will also facilitate further collaborations between our project and a companion effort (USDA-NIFA-AFRI funded project entitled “Twenty-first century development of 21st century precision agriculture for water quality protection”) led by Zach Easton (Virginia Tech) and Todd Walter (Cornell).

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The major objectives for the first year of the Fertilizer Forecaster project were to (1) select runoff monitoring sites on two farms within each of the four project watersheds; (2) install runoff monitoring equipment on the selected farms and begin data collection; (3) develop and test a pedogenic model that maps soil restrictive layers on each of the farms (4) organize the project advisory panel. Below is a summary of major activities completed and specific objectives that were met for this reporting period: Major activities completed Farm selection Two farms were selected within each of the four project watersheds (Anderson Creek, Spring Creek, Mahantango Creek, and Conewago Creek) where development and testing of the Fertilizer Forecaster would be focused. Members of the project team met with each of the farmers in the spring and early summer of 2012 to explain the rationale for the project and obtain permission to install runoff monitoring stations on their properties. Runoff monitoring Installation of runoff monitoring stations began at the conclusion of the growing season in 2012. During fall 2012, we installed runoff monitoring stations on farms within Mahantango Creek and Conewago Creek watersheds. We also installed real-time climate stations in the Anderson Creek and Conewago Creek watersheds. Runoff monitoring stations on Anderson Creek and Spring Creek were completed in spring 2013. Concurrent runoff and meteorological monitoring on all sites will begin during the growing season of 2013. Project Advisory Panel The project advisory panel is intended to provide input on all phases of the project, including runoff monitoring, forecasting model development and testing, and selection of the final model that will be used in the Fertilizer Forecaster decision support tool. During the project reporting period, we successfully recruited one farmer from each of the four project watersheds, as well as representatives from PA DEP, PA Conservation Commission, and PA NRCS, to serve on the Project Advisory Panel. We anticipate that the first meeting of the panel will occur sometime during the summer of 2013. Pedogenic model testing and development Doctoral student Lauren Vitko, (major advisor Drohan) is using pedogenic and geophysical techniques to develop a restrictive layer model across the four study watersheds. Restrictive layers are subsoil horizons high in clay, horizons exhibiting fragic properties or a fragipan, shallow bedrock, or the contact at a lithologic discontinuity; all can decrease the effective soil depth for water storage. As water percolates and fills pores in this depth-range, saturation can be more quickly achieved than in a soil without a restrictive layer, resulting in surface runoff. Soil Survey data is not produced at a high enough resolution for use in site-specific mapping of soils with restrictive horizons that can result in greater surface runoff. Working with Drs. Drohan, Buda, Kleinman, and other PhD committee members (Drs. Doug Miller and Jim Hamlet), Lauren will conduct a series of research projects across the study watersheds to map restrictive layers, quantify their depth, and the key geomorphic variables needed to predict their occurrence in other locales of the study area. Specific objectives met All specific project objectives for this reporting period were met. Significant results achieved Threesignificant results have been achieved to date. Members of the project team published a paper in the Journal of Soil and Water Conservation describing the development of empirical equations to predict the probability of field-scale runoff occurrence (Buda et al., 2013, JSWC, 68: 183-196). These models represent one of the three modeling approaches that will be tested in years 2-4 of the project. Using ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electromagnetic induction (EM), doctoral student Lauren Vitko has developed preliminary restrictive layer maps for three of the four watersheds. When compared to USDA-NRCS Soil Survey maps available through Web Soil Survey, these models demonstrate much improved mapping of soils with restrictive layers. A comparison of Vitko’s restrictive layer maps to hydrologic monitoring (piezometers) across the Conewago Creek watershed shows strong correlation with the location of restrictive layers and seasonally wet soils. Key outcomes or other accomplishments realized Our preliminary geophysical results suggest that site-specific mapping of soil restrictive layers in agricultural landscapes can greatly improve the prediction of landscape positions that regularly contribute to surface runoff.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Buda, A.R., P.J.A. Kleinman, G.W. Feyereisen, P.G. Knight, P.J. Drohan, and R.B. Bryant. 2013. Forecasting runoff from Pennsylvania landscapes. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, doi:10.2489/jswc.68.3.185.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Buda, A.R., P.J.A. Kleinman, D. Miller, P.G. Knight, and H. Lin. 2013. Developing a Web-Based Forecasting Tool For Nutrient Management. NABC Report 24. Available at http://nabc.cals.cornell.edu/pubs/Reports/nabc_24/24_7_1_Posters.pdf