Influences of forest to urban conversion on water related risks to human health

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
112	0399	1070	100%

Progress 01/03/12 to 09/30/16

Outputs
Target Audience:Results of this project were targeted toward stakeholder groups in thestudy area and beyond. These included citizenswho attendedoutreach events, community club meetings, k-12 who were exposed to our information through Project Learning Tree, and others. Also, we targeted research audiences through conference presentations and journal articles. Changes/Problems:There were no major changes in the approach. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Several students worked on the project and, one in particular, has now developed a career in environmental health as a result. After completing her PhD dissertation on the cliame aspects of the study, she is training as a post-doc in an environmental health lab at the University of Georgia. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Yes, through outreach programs in cities and rural areas in Alabama and Georgia. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We developed a predicitve modelthat links climate, socioeconomic, vegetation (including corvid habitat), hydrology, and water quality data to the incidence of West Nile virus in and around Atlanta. Risk factors for this and other diseases are often assessed singularly and this approach has been shown to be inadequate since the factors which define disease risk are often multifaceted and highly integrated. Consequently, causal factors must be examined in tandem and their interrelationships unwoven in order to gain insight into risk. The model indicated that risk peaked during dry sprins following wet, warm winters, in highly fragment forest lanscapes, and in poorer neighborhoods with older houses where water quality was often lower than in more prosperous areas.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Lockaby, B.G., N. Noori, W. Morse, W. Zipperer, L. Kalin, R. Governo, R. Sawant, M. Ricker. 2016. Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, GA. Journal of Vector Ecology 41(2):232-243. Ricker, M., B.G. Lockaby, G.D. Blosser, W.H. Conner. 2016. Rapid wood decay and nutrient mineralization in an old-growth bottomland forest. Biogeochemistry 127:323-328. Noori, N., Kalin, L., Lockaby G. 2015. Larval development of Culex quinquefasciatus in water with low to moderate pollution levels. Journal of Vector Ecology 40(2):208-220. Ricker, M.C. and B.G. Lockaby. 2015. Soil organic carbon stocks in a large eutrophic floodplain forest of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. Wetlands 35:291-301. Enloe, H.A, B.G. Lockaby, W.C. Zipperer, and G.L. Somers. 2015. Urbanization effects on leaf litter decomposition, foliar nutrient dynamics and aboveground net primary productivity in the subtropics. Urban Ecosystems 18 (4):1285-1303. DOI:10.1007/s11252-015-0444-x Enloe, H.A., B.G. Lockaby, W.C. Zipperer, and G.L. Somers. 2015. Urbanization effects on soil nitrogen transformations and microbial biomass in the subtropics. Urban Ecosystems. DOI:10.1007/s11252-015-0462-8. Singh, H., L. Kalin , A. Morrison, P. Srivastava, B.G. Lockaby, S. Pan. 2015. Post-Validation of SWAT Model in a Coastal Watershed for Predicting Land Use/Cover change Impacts. Hydrology Research. DOI:10.2166/NH.2015.222 Pierfelice, K.N, B.G. Lockaby, K.W. Krauss, W.H. Conner, G.B. Noe, and M.C. Ricker. 2015. Salinity influences on above- and belowground net primary productivity in tidal wetlands. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001223

Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15

Outputs
Target Audience:Resultsfor our West Nile Virus (WNV) study indicatethat WNV incidence increases as forestfragmentation increases (i.e. as forest patch sizes become smaller), as percent pine cover in a 3 km radius around the trap site decreases,as the proportion of Chinese Privet in the understory rises, and the percent of impervious surface expands.These data were collected from 52 sites in and near Atlanta, GA where Culex mosquito trapping had occurred. Climate and socioeconomic data were collected in tandem with the ecological data and synthesis manuscripts are being prepared. Another study aimed at development of risk prediction models for tick borne diseases (TBDs) has been initiated and field tests to compare methodologies for collection of ticks are underway. Also, a system of study sites is being established across the Piedmont, Coastal Plain, and Ridge and Valley physiographic regions. These sites will be used to sample ticks and measure ecological, climate, and land use data that mayserve as independent variables in a prediction tool. Changes/Problems:Due to conditions in the field, there were minor changes in vegetation sampling. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?A PhD student was trained during the project and she is now a post-doc studyng disease ecology at the University of Georgia. Five undergraduates were also trained in research during the course of the project. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?We have made several outreach presentations based on our research results at locations in southern Alabama and near Columbus, GA. Two others areplanned in January 2016 in Auburn and Pritchard, AL. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We contiune to conduct data analysis and will incorporate any new informaiton into our outreach activiites. A priority will be placed on completing manuscripts for journalpublication.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? (1) We have successfully linked incidence of West Nile Virus to forest fragmentation, forest patch size, and species composition of forests. (2) We have demonstrated that conversion of forests to urban fragments forests resulted in better corvid habitat and lower water quality, 2 factors which increase WNV incidence. (3) We now have predictive tools which effectively demonstrate the vegetation, hydrologic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions that combine to form ideal conditions for WNV outbreaks.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Noori, N., Kalin, L., Lockaby G. 2015. Larval development of Culex quinquefasciatus in water with low to moderate pollution levels. Journal of Vector Ecology 40(2):208-220. Ricker, M.C. and B.G. Lockaby. 2015. Soil organic carbon stocks in a large eutrophic floodplain forest of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. Wetlands 35:291-301. Enloe, H.A, B.G. Lockaby, W.C. Zipperer, and G.L. Somers. 2015. Urbanization effects on leaf litter decomposition, foliar nutrient dynamics and aboveground net primary productivity in the subtropics. Urban Ecosystems 18 (4):1285-1303. DOI:10.1007/s11252-015-0444-x Enloe, H.A., B.G. Lockaby, W.C. Zipperer, and G.L. Somers. 2015. Urbanization effects on soil nitrogen transformations and microbial biomass in the subtropics. Urban Ecosystems. DOI:10.1007/s11252-015-0462-8. Singh, H., L. Kalin , A. Morrison, P. Srivastava, B.G. Lockaby, S. Pan. 2015. Post-Validation of SWAT Model in a Coastal Watershed for Predicting Land Use/Cover change Impacts. Hydrology Research. DOI:10.2166/NH.2015.222 Pierfelice, K.N, B.G. Lockaby, K.W. Krauss, W.H. Conner, G.B. Noe, and M.C. Ricker. 2015. Salinity influences on above- and belowground net primary productivity in tidal wetlands. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering. DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001223

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: The scientific community, undergraduate and graduate students, and community partners such as k-12 students, public health professionals, and local residents. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results have been shared at three major conferences: Noori, N., Kalin, L., Lockaby, B.G., "Water quality as a nexus between land use/cover and West Nile Virus incidence." Bays and Bayous conference, Dec 2014. Noori, N., Kalin, L., Lockaby, B.G., "Role of LULC and Water Quality on West Nile Virus Incidence." IUFRO conference, Oct 2014. Morse, W. C., Lockaby, B.G., Zipperer, W., Kalin, L., Magori, K. (2014). Interdisciplinary study of the West Nile Virus in the greater Atlanta metropolitan area. The International Symposium on Society and Resource Management (ISSRM), Hannover, Germany, June 9-13. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We are currently analyzing and interpreting data. Two publications specific to the social data are in progress. We will also begin to analyze the forest data.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Two journals articles have been prepared and are currently in review: Noori, N., Lockaby, B.G., Kalin, L. "Larval development of Culex quinquefasciatus in water with low to moderate pollution levels." Journal of Vector Ecology. (IN REVIEW) Noori, N., Kalin, L., Lockaby, B.G., Magori, K. "Short term prediction of Culex quinquefasciatus population carrying West Nile Virus in Central North Georgia, U.S.A based on the climate variability."Journal of Ecological Modeling. (IN PREPARATION-COMMITTEE REVIEWING)

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Ricker, M.C. and B.G. Lockaby. 2014. Soil biogeochemical processes across a lateral toposequence in an old-growth floodplain forest. SSSAJ 78:2100-2111.

Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience for work resulting from this project included the scientific community, undergraduate and graduate students, and community partners such as k-12 students, public health professionals,and local residents. Changes/Problems: Our planned field approach needed to be modified to a minor degree based on conditions encountered there.We performed a substudy to define the levels of water pollution that are required for ideal WNV mosquito habitat and relate these to urban impacts. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? One post-doctoral associate, 1 graduate student, 4 undergraduate students, and 1 juinor high school student have been involved in planning and conducting field data collection.The post-doc and graudate student have also been heavily involved in data analysis. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The internationalwebinar on impacts of conversion of forest to urban on water involved 162 participants from 10 countries. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will distribute project findings through Project Learning Tree and dissemination of non-technical fact sheets. Also, creation of models through continued data analyses will be conducted.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We conducted field sampling to record detailed landscape and socioeconomic data in areas of Georgia where West Nile Virus (WNV) was prevalent. Models were developedto describe relationships between field characteristics and incidence of WNV. In addition, models relating climate variaiblity to water quality degradation and WNV incidence are being created.

Publications

Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Anderson, C.J., B.G. Lockaby, and N. Click. 2013. Changes in forest structure, basal area, and composition across a tidal gradient. American Midland Naturalist 170(1):1-13. Nagy, R.C., B.G. Lockaby, W. Zipperer, and L.J. Marzen. 2013. A comparison of carbon and nitrogen stocks among land uses and cover types in coastal Florida. Urban Ecosystems DOI 10.1007/s11252-013-0312-5. Noe, G.B., K.W. Krauss, B.G. Lockaby, W.H. Conner, and C.R. Hupp. 2013. The effect of increasing salinity and forest mortality on soil nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization in tidal freshwater forested wetlands. Biogeochemistry 114(1):225-244.

Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: We have disseminated information derived from this project to the general public through television, newspaper, and CNN interviews, media releases from Auburn University, and seminars. In addition, we were contacted by a high school in Dallas, TX (the location of the severe West Nile Virus outbreak last year) and interviewed for an article they were writing for their school newspaper. We will continue to actively pursue outreach opportunities as the project progresses. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. Wayne Zipperer - US Forest Service scientist and ecophysiologist; Dr. Latif Kalin - Auburn University scientist and hydrologist; Dr. Wayde Morse - Auburn University scientist and anthropologist; Dr. Graeme Lockaby - Auburn University scientist and project leader; Navideh Noori - Auburn University graduate research assistant. Partner organizations include the Georgia Dept. of Community Health, US Forest Service, Univ of Alabama - Birmingham Medical School. At least 2-3 graduate students will be trained in the project as well as some local stakeholders. TARGET AUDIENCES: We will bring our findings regarding the risk factors associated with West Nile Virus to local residents of neighborhood in which we collect data, county and state health organizations, and a national audience of K-12 students through Project Learning Tree. As these groups are made aware of risk factors, specific actions to reduce or remove those risk factors will be identified. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major changes at this time.

Impacts
We are still early in the data collection period of the project and, apart from general outreach activities, other outcomes or products are yet to come. A mesocosm study has been installed to examine Culex sp. development in relation to water pollutants. Also, field locations for the landscape facet of the study are in the process of being selected. Protocols for collection of vegetation, water, and socioeconomic data in the field are being finalized.

Publications

Crim, J.F., J.E. Schoonover, and B.G. Lockaby. 2012. Assessment of fecal coliform and Escherichia Coli across a land use gradient in west Georgia streams. Water Quality Exposure and Health DOI 10.1007/s12403-012-0073-z.
Isik, S., L. Kalin, J. Schoonover, P. Srivastava, and G. Lockaby. 2012. Modeling effects of changing land use / cover on daily streamflow: an artificial neural network and curve number based hybrid approach. Journal of Hydrology http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.hydrol.2012.08.032.
Nagy, R.C., B.G. Lockaby, L. Kalin, and C. Anderson. 2012. Effects of urbanization on stream hydrology and water quality: the Florida Gulf Coast. Hydrological Processes 26:2019-2030.
Zhang, C., Tian, H., Chen, G., Chappelka, A., Xu, X., Ren, W., Hui, D., Liu, M., Lu, C., Pan, S., and Lockaby, G. 2012. Impacts of urbanization on carbon balance in terrestrial ecosystems of the southern United States. Environmental Pollution 164:89-101.
Tian, H., G. Chen, C. Zhang, M. Liu, G. Sun, A. Chappelka, W. Ren, X. Xu, C. Lu, S. Pan, H. Chen, D. Hui, S. McNulty, G. Lockaby, and E. Vance. 2012. Century-scale responses of ecosystem carbon storage and flux to multiple environmental changes in the southern United States. Ecosystems 15:674-694.
Chen, G., H. Tian, C. Zhang, M. Liu, W. Ren, W. Zhu, AH Chappelka, S.A. Prior, and B.G. Lockaby. 2012. Drought in the southern United States over the 20th century: variability and its impact on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and carbon storage. Climatic Change 114:379-397.