Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:Audiences reached fall into two main groups: scientists and other stakeholders. The main groups of scientists reached are those directly working on the key plant diseases that we have studied, principally Huanglongbing (HLB) in citrus, red leaf viruses in grapes and downy mildew in spinach. Over the course of the project we have published refereed papers and attended state, national and international scientific meetings at which our work on the impacts of plant disease on sustainability has been presented. Highlights among the outreach to scientists include keynote papers at conferences in New Zealand in 2014 and 2015 at the International Research Conference on HLB in 2015 and 2017, and at the Brazilian Phytopathology Society annual meeting in 2016. Outreach to non-scientist target audiences focused on state and national regulatory officials (California Department of Food and Agriculture and USDA-APHIS), grower-organizations (marketing order groups such as Citrus Research Board, American Vineyard Foundation, CA Grape Rootstock Improvement Commission, CA Leafy Greens Research Board, CA Tomato Research Institute), and growers. The project has an active program of outreach associated with it, particularly in grape and citrus, but also quite strong in leafy greens and processing tomato. Over the lifetime of the project we conducted between one and two direct outreach events per month, some being large-audience grower meetings, others being committee work and focused interactions on specific topics involving only one to a few stakeholders. Regular activities under this heading include annual presentations at the California Current Viticulture Research Meeting, the CA Leafy Greens Research Board annual meeting, and the Citrus Research Board annual review. In addition we worked closely with CDFA to re-write the sampling protocols for the grape certification program and provide special scientific advice the Citrus Research Board on epidemiology of HLB. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Two post-doctoral researchers were trained in analytical methodology related to the project. The post-docs learned different sets of methods appropriate to the specific problems on which they were working, but both have much increased analytical ability having passed through the program. One graduate student was trained in/contributed to the development of methods for studying disease inoculum dynamics in the context of a system where inoculum moves freely between different locations and the ability of individual growers to prevent disease on their own is limited. The graduate student secured a post-doc position at the University of Florida after completing his PhD where he will be able to apply the analytical skills developed in Davis. A second graduate student was mentored jointly by Prof Lubell (Center for Environmental Policy & Behavior, UC Davis) and was trained in the elicitation and analysis of cognitive models of sustainability. The student secured a position in health-care data analysis and as a statistical consultant for a US data analysis and consultancy corporation. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Research findings from the project have been published in refereed papers and presented at national and international scientific meetings. Members of the project team regularly participate in industry outreach meetings in California where their work on specific crop systems is delivered directly to growers and pest control advisers. The project PI serves on several state committees and advisory boards allowing expertise to be transfered directly to decision-makers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Using case studies of crop diseases under active investigation in California agriculture it is possible to identify both qualitative differences in the threat they pose to the sustainability of production of particular commodities, and the pathways through which the threat to sustainability arises. For example: 1. Diseases causing direct physical and/or economic damage to a production system sufficient to threaten sustainability on their own: example Huanglongbing (HLB) disease of citrus. 2. Diseases causing direct physical and/or economic damage sufficient to threaten sustainability of individual producers, but not immediately a threat to the whole system: example Downy mildew in fresh market spinach. 3. Disease contributing significantly to socio-economic burden on a crop, but not individually threatening sustainability: example red leaf viruses in wine grape. A common feature of diseases that threaten sustainability appears to be that they typically demand a high level of cooperation (or at least coordination) for control to be effective. Requirements for cooperation may be confined to a single layer in the system (for example to growers alone) or may cut across more than one layer (for example involving growers, regulators and shippers). Since the impact of a disease on sustainability is not necessarily connected with how difficult it is to prevent it's occurrence (it is possible for diseases to be widespread but not especially damaging) there is no direct relationship between the level of cooperation required to control a disease and the potential impact of the disease in sustainability. However, we can say that high impact diseases that also require a high degree of cooperation for control, are likely to be important threats to sustainability; citrus HLB is a clear example of this phenomenon. The studies undertaken in this project have led to significant research and outreach activities associated with the human component of plant diseases and the extent to which this modulates the impact that diseases have on crop system sustainability. The concepts developed in the project are being used to help with the state and industry response to HLB in California, and have attracted attention from USDA-APHIS in helping to frame federal regulatory and phytosanitary responses to exotic diseases
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
S. Savary, S. Bregaglio, L. Willocquet, D. Gustafson, D. Mason DCroz, A. Sparks, N. Castilla, A. Djurle, C. Allinne, Mamta Sharma, V. Rossi, L. Amorim, A. Bergamin, J. Yuen, P. Esker, N. McRoberts, J. Avelino, E. Duveiller, J. Koo, K. Garrett. 2017. Crop health and its global impacts on the components of food security. Food Security. DOI: 10.1007/s12571-017-0659-1
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Serge Savary, Annika Djurle, Jonathan Yuen, Andrea Ficke, Vittorio Rossi, Paul Esker, Jose M Fernandes, Emerson Del Ponte, Jatindra Kumar, Laurence V Madden, Pierce A Paul, Neil McRoberts, Pawan Kumar Singh, Laurent Huber, Claude Pope de Vallavieille, S�bastien Saint-Jean, Laetitia Willocquet. 2017.
A white paper on global wheat health based on scenario development and analysis. Phytopathology. (forthcoming).
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Serge Savary, Neil McRoberts, Paul D Esker, Laetitia Willocquet, Paul S Teng. 2017.Production situations as drivers of crop health: evidence and implications. Plant Pathology. DOI: 10.1111/ppa.12659
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:Meetings were held with growers, crop managers, pest control advisers and farm business owners working in several important California crop commodities (grapes, citrus, processing tomato, strawberry nursery, and leafy greens) to report on research findings and to advise on implementation of practices linked to the mitigation or avoidance of important diseases threatening the sustainability of California agriculture. In addition, several meetings with program managers from the California Department of Food and Agriculture and science advisers with USDA APHIS were held to advise on program management. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?The project provided the framework for on-going training for four graduate students, one junior specialist and a post-doctoral research scientist. We also provided training to approximately 30 graduate students and PI's on the use of multivariate statistics at conference workshop. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The results have been disseminated in a number of ways, depending on the specific context. In some cases it is achieved by direct outreach to the target audiences, in other cases we have provided downloadable software and for some aspects we have written peer reviewed papers. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?For the next reporting period, the specific information gathered from studying the different disease systems and the range of problems they pose will be collated and used to generate the simulation model for the impacts of disease on sustainability. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the model output (one or more metrics of sustainability) to changes in the input parameters. Policy briefings and popular science oriented reports on this work will be generated in addition to peer reviewed papers.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The work conducted to date in this reporting period has been aimed mainly at understanding the specific dynamics of particular case studies (e.g. downy mildew threatening salad spinach production in the Salinas Valley) to gather a detailed understanding of the links between plant disease and sustainability of crop production. At the other end of the plant health response continuum we have worked closely with colleagues in regulatory agencies (CDFA and USDA-APHIS) to develop causal models of potential weaknesses in phytosanitary regulatory programs, and to model the effect of grower non-participation in area-wide treatment programs on the efficacy of mandated vector suppression programs.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Modelling transmission characteristics and epidemic development of the tospovirusthrip interaction
J Jeger, Michael, F van den Bosch, N McRoberts
Arthropod-Plant Interactions 9, 107-120
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Detection of Phytophthora ramorum in Nurseries and Forest Lands in California in 2004 to 2009
CL Blomquist, LE Yakabe, S Rooney-Latham, N McRoberts, C Thomas
Plant Disease 100 (1), 139-148
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Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
Target Audience: California winegrape industry, California nursery grape industry, California strawberry nursery industry, California citrus industry, California processing tomato growers, California leafy greens growers, UCCE IPM specialists and county advisers, national and international IPM specialists, national and international plant disease epidemiologists Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Graduate students in QBE lab were trained in aspects of plant disease epidemiology and decision theory. New Zealand scientists were introduced to techniques in information theory at a workshop organized by the New Zealand Plant Protection Society in Waikato, NZ in August 2014. Three undergraduate student interns have been employed on aspects of the project during the reporting year. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results have been communicated by a variety of means, including: refereed papers, conference and workshop presentations, radio appearances, webpages and social media (Twitter and Facebook). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? The international collaboration group plans to publish a paper examining the rice yield loss data set. A keynote paper on the dynamics of HLB disease of citrus and its impact on sustainability will be published. We will continue to work with California crop commodity stakeholders to develop a wider appreciation of the links between crop disease and farming sustainability.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Direct links between the epidemiology of key diseases and the sustainability of high value California commodity crops has been established. Together with a group international collaborators we finalized a database of over 1000 rice crops from different production situations across south and south-east Asia spanning 3 decades. The database includes information on yield, input use and the presence and severity of a range of pests, weeds and diseases. We developed the analytical approach required to identify the relationships between rice yield and the other factors in the database and started on the process of analysis. The results will be a unique example of crop yield loss analysis, given the spatial and temporal scale of the data and the importance of rice to global food security. The analysis will be completed this year.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Coupling Spore Traps and Quantitative PCR Assays for Detection of the Downy Mildew Pathogens of Spinach (Peronospora effusa) and Beet (P. schachtii). Steven J Klosterman, Amy Anchieta, Neil McRoberts, Steven T Koike, Krishna V Subbarao, Hermann Voglmayr, Young-Joon Choi, Marco Thines, Frank N Martin. Phytopathology, 104: 1349-1359.
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Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: Academic and stakeholder participants in ANR system-wide, public webinar on sustainability (May 31st). International academic audience at the 13th International Epidemiology Workshop, Beijing, (August 22nd-24th) Industry stakeholders and academic audience, Citrus Health Research Forum, Denver, CO, (October 13th-15th) Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Training in the construction of systems dynamics models was provided to graduate students in the PI's lab. Training was also provided in using graph models for causal loop analysis for graduate students working on projects concerned with sustainable production of leafy greens and citrus in California. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been disseminated through stakeholder meetings, scientific conferences and publications, and a public webinar. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
A synthesis of useful analytical methods for studying system sustainability was produced in connection with the ANR webinar. Approaches that will be useful specifically for studying sustainability for California agriculture were highlighted and the mechanisms for linking abstract mathematical analyses of sustainability to practices for different parts of the UC knowledge transfer system were described. Sustainability in all systems depends, crucially, on human actions. To a great extent the success of the Land Grant mission depends on the capacity of the University of California's ability to change behavior among its stakeholders, when such changes are needed to switch systems from less to more sustainable trajectories. That is, the Land Grant mission is, in essence normative. In spite of this, there is still a poor understanding of why individual decision makers reject particular pieces of knowledge or technology innovation. This is true across all agricultural domains, but the project focuses particularly on plant disease management, where the phenomenon is well-documented. In response to this gap in the methodological apparatus for knowledge transfer, a new conceptual framework for studying technology/idea adoption by decision makers was developed. An initial outline of the framework was presented to an academic audience during the reporting year. A new ANR research project, awarded in Jan 2013, will allow us to develop these ideas more fully. One specific case study of the importance of decision making to sustainability is being played out in California presently. The sustainability of the citrus industry is being threatened by the invasive vector/disease complex Asian Citrus Psyllid/Huanglongbing (HLB). The Florida industry is on the verge of being destroyed by HLB following a pattern which has been repeated many times globally. At present it is unclear if traditional plant breeding or pest management approaches can provide answers to the disease and the citrus industry and public research base are investing heavily in technologies that will rely on genetic engineering to stop the vector from spreading the pathogen, or to make citrus trees resistant to it. Many interacting and opposing factors will determine which, if any, of the choices facing the industry provide a sustainable future.Work in this project is involved in developing causal models to study this complex problem and to assist in the decision-making process. A synthesis of useful analytical methods for studying system sustainability was produced in connection with the ANR webinar. Approaches that will be useful specifically for studying sustainability for California agriculture were highlighted and the mechanisms for linking abstract mathematical analyses of sustainability to practices for different parts of the UC knowledge transfer system were described. Sustainability in all systems depends, crucially, on human actions. To a great extent the success of the Land Grant mission depends on the capacity of the University of California's ability to change behavior among its stakeholders, when such changes are needed to switch systems from less to more sustainable trajectories. That is, the Land Grant mission is, in essence normative. In spite of this, there is still a poor understanding of why individual decision makers reject particular pieces of knowledge or technology innovation. This is true across all agricultural domains, but the project focuses particularly on plant disease management, where the phenomenon is well-documented. In response to this gap in the methodological apparatus for knowledge transfer, a new conceptual framework for studying technology/idea adoption by decision makers was developed. An initial outline of the framework was presented to an academic audience during the reporting year. A new ANR research project, awarded in Jan 2013, will allow us to develop these ideas more fully. One specific case study of the importance of decision making to sustainability is being played out in California presently. The sustainability of the citrus industry is being threatened by the invasive vector/disease complex Asian Citrus Psyllid/Huanglongbing (HLB). The Florida industry is on the verge of being destroyed by HLB following a pattern which has been repeated many times globally. At present it is unclear if traditional plant breeding or pest management approaches can provide answers to the disease and the citrus industry and public research base are investing heavily in technologies that will rely on genetic engineering to stop the vector from spreading the pathogen, or to make citrus trees resistant to it. Many interacting and opposing factors will determine which, if any, of the choices facing the industry provide a sustainable future.Work in this project is involved in developing causal models to study this complex problem and to assist in the decision-making process.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Gent, D., Mahaffee, W.F., McRoberts, N., Pfender, W.F. 2013. The use and role of predictive systems in plant disease management. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 51:267-289.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
McRoberts, N. 2013. Sustainability: Linking theory to practice. ASI/ANR/SFS Webinar, 5/31/2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
McRoberts, N., Cohen, S., Lubell, M. 2013. Cooperation problems in disease management within an ecology of games. 13th International Epidemiology Workshop, Beijing China, August 22nd-24th.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
McRoberts, N. 2013. Industry commitments to deploy nu-Psyllid-type and GM approaches
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Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: A collaborative tool for developing conceptual models has been developed using the cloud-based application ShareBrain (https://share-brain.com/en/login). Members of the QBE lab are currently being trained to use the software and are developing material for web-based briefing notes on sustainability and plant disease which will be published online directly from ShareBrain. Training is being provided in modeling methodologies for QBE lab members. A webinar on mathematical methods for studying sustainability has been scheduled as part of a series being organized by the ANR Strategic Initiative on sustainable systems. PARTICIPANTS: Participants: Dr Neil McRoberts (PI), Kari Arnold, AJ Campbell, Rosalie Carnam, Robin Choudhury, Greg Reynolds, Carrie Teiken (QBE lab grad students). The students received training in aspects of statistical and mathematical modeling. Each student also contributed specific information about how the disease he/she is studying affects sustainability in the system(s) of interest to them. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
An ANR webinar will be used to deliver some of the general concepts to a UC system-wide audience. The project is still at a relatively early stage and had focused so far on developing working methods and concepts for analysis.
Publications
- Esker, PD; Savary, S; McRoberts, N (2013). Crop loss analysis and global food supply: focusing now on required yields. CAB Reviews: Perspectives in Agriculture, Veterinary Science, Nutrition and Natural Resources (in press)
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