Source: CORNELL UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
GREAT RECESSION, FISCAL STRESS AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR RURAL SERVICE DELIVERY AND MULTI-GENERATIONAL PLANNING
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
AFRI COMPETITIVE GRANT
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0226480
Grant No.
2011-68006-30793
Cumulative Award Amt.
$499,094.00
Proposal No.
2011-02702
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Sep 1, 2011
Project End Date
Aug 31, 2015
Grant Year
2011
Program Code
[A1631]- Agriculture Economics and Rural Communities: Rural Development
Recipient Organization
CORNELL UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
ITHACA,NY 14853
Performing Department
Development Sociology
Non Technical Summary
The Great Recession of 2008-2009 hit financial markets around the world and prompted massive governmental intervention. Now in 2011 we are witnessing the Great Recession 2.0 - a recession hitting state and local governments. As the economy begins to rebound, state and local governments find themselves in a deepening fiscal crisis as tax receipts to local governments continue to fall. The fiscal crisis is not the only challenge facing local governments - they also face demographic transformation. The US population is aging and although many rural governments have pursued retirement in-migration as an economic development strategy, they are discovering that the "grey gold" of the recently retired (65-75 year olds) loses some of it economic luster as older citizens need more supportive services (para-transit, home health care, meals on wheels, etc). Seniors make up only half the story. The future of any community lies in its youth. Rural areas have long suffered from out-migration and struggle to hang on to young people as they become economically active adults. This project addresses these concerns. First we will chronicle the demographic transformation in rural communities. Next we will explore how new service delivery models at the local government level address the joint challenges of fiscal stress and demographic restructuring. Third we will assess how rural communities address the need for multi-generational planning challenges in land use and service design. Finally, we will support a program of extension and outreach to rural community leaders to enhance their understanding of these issues and support their efforts to promote multi-generational planning and service delivery. This project addresses three of NIFA's rural development goals: (1) promoting sustainable agriculture and rural development to enhance environmental quality, (2) sustaining the economic viability of agriculture and rural communities; and (3) enhancing the quality of life of farmers, farm workers, and rural communities. PIs Dr. Mildred Warner and Dr. David Brown, leading researchers in demographic change and rural community service delivery, will partner with the International City/County Management Association (ICMA), a leader in local government survey research, to conduct two national surveys - one on service delivery and one on multi-generational planning and the challenges of meeting the needs of elderly and children. We will supplement the surveys with case studies on rural community multi-generational planning efforts. Extension services will be in collaboration with ICMA and the Rural & Small Town Planning Division and the Women & Planning Division of the American Planning Association to ensure we reach rural local government officials and planners across the country.
Animal Health Component
33%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
34%
Applied
33%
Developmental
33%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6086050308050%
8056050308050%
Knowledge Area
805 - Community Institutions, Health, and Social Services; 608 - Community Resource Planning and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6050 - Communities, areas, and regions;

Field Of Science
3080 - Sociology;
Goals / Objectives
Rural communities are undergoing demographic transformation - the population is aging and the young are more ethnically diverse. Fiscal stress forces difficult service delivery choices on local governments who bear primary responsibility for providing services to children and elderly (e.g. para-transit, health, nutrition and recreation). This project will meet the following long-term goals. It will (1) provide an assessment of demographic transformation among rural municipalities; (2) assess new approaches to service delivery; (3) explore how rural communities respond to these multi-generational planning needs; and 4) provide critical extension support to promote multi-generational planning and service delivery among rural communities. Specific objectives include: Objective 1- Demographic Transformation: How are changes in age composition related to changes in ethnic composition in rural communities What is the relative contribution of migration and natural increase/decrease to these compositional changes We will develop a typology of communities by dependency ratios and race/ethnicity to assess implications for local government service delivery. Objective 2 - Alternative Service Delivery: What kinds of service delivery alternatives do rural local governments use to meet the needs of elders and children We will assess how rural community service delivery strategies differ from of urban and suburban municipalities. We will determine how these choices are affected by demographic change and fiscal stress. Objective 3 - Multi-generational Planning: What kinds of multi-generational strategies do rural communities undertake in the areas of land use, housing, transportation and social services We will explore how these are related to demographic, socio-economic, and governance factors. We will investigate the micro-political and contextual issues that lead municipalities to develop a multi-generational planning response. Objective 4 - Policy and Program Innovation: Resource materials will promote greater awareness of the challenges and possibilities brought about by demographic transformation and fiscal stress among local government leaders and community planners. We will provide technical assistance on alternative models of service delivery and key elements of multi-generational planning. Outputs and milestones include the following: Year 1 - Conduct Demographic Analysis; conduct Alternative Service Delivery Survey; develop Multi-generational Planning Survey instrument via focus groups; write extension issue briefs, begin ongoing evaluation process. Year 2 - Build demographic typology; analyze Alternative Service Delivery Survey; conduct Multi-generational Planning survey; identify case studies; conduct webinars; write extension issue briefs and journal articles, host APA conference sessions; conduct ongoing evaluation with advisory committee. Year 3 - Undertake case studies; analyze case studies, analyze survey data, write journal articles and extension materials, conduct ongoing evaluation with advisory committee.
Project Methods
We will partner with the International City/County Management Association (ICMA) to conduct two national surveys - one focused on service delivery and the other focused on multi-generational planning and the challenges of meeting service needs for the elderly and children simultaneously. We will supplement the surveys with case studies on rural community efforts to promote multi-generational planning. The Rural & Small Town Planning Division and the Women & Planning Division of the American Planning Association will participate in focus groups for survey design and facilitate the dissemination of research findings. The project will address four inter-related concerns: 1) Demographic Change, 2) Alternative Service Delivery Models, 3) Multi-generational Planning, and 4) Policy and Program Innovation. We will use a mixed methods approach to address our research and extension objectives. Our study will analyze demographic data from the Census of Population and Housing for all US counties as well as the American Community Survey. The second objective will use ICMA national survey data on alternative local government service delivery to assess differences in service delivery by metro status. The 2012 ICMA Alternative Service Delivery Survey conducted under this grant and will enable us to assess how local governments are responding to fiscal crisis with shifts in service arrangements. The third objective will be based on a combination of survey and case study research. With ICMA we will design and conduct a survey of multigenerational planning with a focus on services to the elderly and to families with children. We will analyze this survey and use it to design a set of comparative case studies to assess the micro-politics of how communities develop multigenerational plans and services. Finally, we will develop popular publications, webinars and technical assistance programs to promote local level program innovation and policy change. We will use a process of collective critical reflection to engage in a theory-based evaluation using our logic model as a guide. This interactive evaluative approach affords the opportunity to correct course midstream and refine and deepen our knowledge of the effectiveness of our work. We will use our advisory committee to help us in this evaluative process. In addition, process evaluations in our webinars will provide immediate feedback on our extension efforts. Research will be evaluated through presentations at academic conferences and preparation of journal articles for peer review.

Progress 09/01/11 to 08/31/15

Outputs
Target Audience:This project has focused on planners and policy makers concerned with aging and with meeting the needs of young populations. Our focus has been on the following target audiences: 1. Planners active in the American Planning Association, especially the Small Town and Rural Division, the Women and Planning Division and the Private Practice Division. 2. City managers active in the International City/County Management Association. 3. Members of AARP. 4. Extension agents - especially in our home state, New York. 5. Academics interested in planning across generation issues. 6. Scholars and policy makers interested in rural area classification systems (National Academy of sciences, Committee on National Statistics). Over the course of the project we have conducted webinars, sessions at the National APA conference and facilitated discussions and focus groups with these divisions of APA. We wrote book chapters for ICMA's Municipal Yearbook, and served on the advisory council for AARP's livability indicators task force. We participated in extension conferences in New York State hosted by the Community and Regional Development Institute. We wrote numerous journal articles, issue briefs and book chapters for these audiences. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Project team leaders and students involved in the project have presented their work at many academic conferences over the years. This has resulted in new conversations and new approaches to thinking about the critical issues involved in this work. For students, work on the project has enabled them to learn more about survey design and analysis, statistical modeling, as well as the policy issues and debates and how to engage extension audiences. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Dissemination has been a primary concern of this project. As an integrated research/extension project, we engaged with the relevant communities of interest (planners, local government leaders, other policy makers) from the outset. We began with key informant interviews and focus groups to make sure we were asking the right questions - relevant to our audience. Then we asked them to critique our survey instruments. They then invited us to be part of their expert workgroups - from the National Academy of Sciences Committee on National Statistics workshop on rationalizing rural area classifications, to the American Planning Association's Aging Policy Guide, the AARP Livability Indicators project, to the International City/County Management Association and participation in its conferences and publications in its Municipal Yearbook, distributed to all members. Project staff, especially Dr. Warner, participated in 2-3 national webinars each year (mostly with American Planning Association, but some sponsored by Cooperative Extension), as well as state and national conferences. But in addition to our direct project partners, we had many indirect ones. Our worked was picked up by journalists and published in the Washington Post, Ozy and on National Public Radio. In addition to short spots, Dr. Warner was asked to participate in a day long regional forum sponsored by WSKG TV on early childhood education. Dr. Warner also presented to the Mayors Innovation Project immediately before the National League of Cities conference. We have developed a host of extension materials for practicing local planners and local government leaders, as well as reports that have moved the academic debate away from exclusively urban approaches to the problem and highlighted unique approaches that rural communities can take. Our work has given a rural voice to the typically urban biased "age-friendly" planning and policy prescriptions. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Rural communities are undergoing demographic transition. The population is aging, but rural communities also are home to large numbers of children. The demographic challenge is deepened by fiscal crisis, as rural local governments seek to balance budgets and meet rising service demands, a challenge made more serious since the Great Recession. This project focused on understanding the nature of demographic transition, the nature of fiscal crisis and local government service delivery response, and the extent to which rural communities were taking a multi-generational planning approach. We conducted two national surveys - one of local government service delivery and one of multi-generational planning. We found that even though rural communities may be less conducive places to age (due to inadequate services and infrastructure), rural local governments are engaging in planning and alternative service delivery innovation to meet the needs of both an aging and youth population. Our work has moved the debate away from exclusively urban approaches to the problem and highlighted unique approaches that rural communities can take. Our project had four interrelated objectives. Objective 1 Demographic Transformation Led by Dr. David Brown, we examined the association between changes in population size and structure and changes in local community organization. Our results show that while population change is important, demography is not destiny. Community-level adaptations to changes in age structure are mediated by local institutional capacity, by the perceived saliency of potential adaptations, by the political will to expend resources to accomplish such changes, and by sufficient economic resources. Changes in population age structure can be either a "demographic dividend" or a "demographic deficit," depending on local capacities and agency. One important impact was that Dr. Brown was asked to chair the planning committee for a National Academy of Sciences, Committee on National Statistics workshop on rationalizing rural area classifications. Our research on rural population dynamics provided essential knowledge to design this workshop, select the necessary disciplines to examine needed changes in the nation's rural area classification system. Recommendations from this workshop will result in changes in action as USDA's Economic Research Service and other federal agencies update their statistical systems. The delineation of rural and urban areas is a key factor in determining eligibility for millions of dollars in federal assistance from dozens of federal agencies. Improved rural classification will result in changed conditions as better delineations will help identify underserved rural areas so programs focused on rural problems can be evaluated. Objective 2 Assess fiscal stress and new approaches to service delivery among local governments. Led by Dr. Mildred Warner, we used the most recent 2012 Census of Government Finance data to explore which areas of the country were most affected by fiscal stress. We also conducted a national survey with the International City County Management Association of local government approaches to service delivery for over 76 different services from basic infrastructure (roads, water, sewer) to services that affect children and seniors (youth recreation, meals on wheels, paratransit). Our analysis of budget and service delivery trends finds that local governments are practicing a "pragmatic municipalism" where they seek to maintain service delivery within fiscal constraints. This requires innovation in both revenue raising and service delivery. Our survey finds intermunicipal cooperation is the new reform; at 21% of all service delivery it now exceeds the rates of for profit privatization (17%) according to almost 2000 local governments responding to our survey. Intermunicipal cooperation allows local governments to gain economies of scale, promote coordination across the region and ensure public engagement in the service delivery process. Our geographic analysis of fiscal stress exposed the critical importance of state aid to localities and state centralization of fiscal responsibility for services. We found that in states that decentralize more fiscal responsibility to the local level, local governments face more fiscal stress and show a less resilient response to the recession. A state partnership is needed to ensure fiscal resources sufficient to meet local needs. While the fiscal and service challenges are higher in urban core and rural communities, we also found evidence of suburban stress, especially in the older post World War II suburbs. Objective 3 Explore how rural communities respond to these multi-generational planning needs. Led by Dr. Mildred Warner, we designed a survey with the International City County Management Association on Planning Across Generations in 2013, with almost 1900 local governments responding. This survey assessed a) attitudes toward children and elders, b) features of the built environment more conducive to livability for the young and the old (e.g. neighborhood schools and parks, walkability, mixed use zoning), c) services for children and seniors, and d) inclusion of children and elders in comprehensive, emergency and economic development plans. We found rural communities lag in built environment, services and planning, but have attitudes that support intergenerational approaches. These data have enabled us to look at specific topics like joint use with schools and community policing. Changes in knowledge include bringing a multi-generational approach into view for planners and policymakers. Changes in action included Dr. Warner helping draft the American Planning Association's Aging Policy Guide (2014). She brought a rural focus to the guide and ensured it addressed service delivery, civic engagement and equity and inclusion. Dr. Warner also served on the advisory committee for AARP's Livability Indicators. She helped broaden the focus of these indicators so they were more appropriate for rural communities and could address age-friendliness from both a child and senior perspective. As community planners from across the nation use these tools, changes in conditions will occur as more communities will become all-age friendly. Objective 4: Provide extension support to promote multi-generational planning and service delivery among rural communities. Our partners, the American Planning Association and the International City/County Management Association, along with Cooperative Extension and Cornell's Community and Regional Development Institute have worked closely with us to ensure the project results are shared widely. We conducted several case studies to explore the dynamics of how to address these demographic challenges at the local community level. These case studies reveal the importance of local leadership, the need for civil society and local government collaboration, and the need to see beyond the narrow interests of one group to build a multigenerational community response. Our work has changed knowledge by putting a multi-generational planning perspective into local and national policy discourse. Our aging society requires a change in planning paradigm from one focused primarily on the needs of a working age population, to one focused on all ages. However, the aging lens ran the risk of focusing only on older adults, but our work has helped widen lens to look at all ages, from children to seniors. This has resulted in changes in action, in the type of policies now recommended by professional associations of planners and local government. Our work promotes changes in conditions of our communities as planners and local government leaders now pay more attention to the needs of children, elders and their caregivers, not just the needs of those of typical working age. Our work has helped make a broader "planning across generations" approach legitimate.

Publications

  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Brown, D.L. and N. Argent. 2016 Interrelationships of Demographic and Socio-economic Changes in Rural Contexts. In M. Shucksmith and D.L. Brown (eds.) The International Handbook of Rural Studies. Routledge.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Xu, Yuanshou, and Warner, Mildred 2016. Does Devolution Crowd out Development? A Spatial Analysis of US Local Government Fiscal Effort, Environment and Planning A, forthcoming.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Bel, G. and Warner, M.E. 2016. Factors Explaining Inter-municipal Cooperation in Service Delivery: A Meta-Regression Analysis, Journal of Economic Policy Reform, forthcoming. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17487870.2015.1100084
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2015 Citation: Bel, Germ� and Mildred E. Warner (2015). Inter-municipal cooperation and costs: Expectations and Evidence, Public Administration: An International Quarterly, forthcoming. doi: 10.1111/padm.12104
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Xu, Yuanshuo and Mildred Warner, 2015, Understanding Employment Growth in the Recession:The Geographic Diversity of State Rescaling, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, special issue on Local Growth Evolutions: Recession, Resilience and Recovery, 8(2): 359-377 doi:10.1093/cjres/rsv001
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Micklow, Amanda C. and Mildred E. Warner, (2014). Not Your Mothers Suburb: Remaking Communities for a more Diverse Population. The Urban Lawyer, 46(4): 729-751.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Hefetz, Amir, Mildred Warner and Eran Vigoda-Gadot (2014), Professional management and local government service delivery: Strategic decisions across alternative markets, Public Performance & Management Review, 38 (2): 261283. DOI: 10.1080/15309576.2015.983829
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Warner, M.E and Homsy G.C. 2015. Multi-Generational Planning: Integrating the Needs of Elders and Children, pp. 227-240 in International Perspectives on Age Friendly Cities ed by Frank Caro and Kelly Fitzgerald, Routledge.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Homsy, G.C. and M.E. Warner 2014. Intermunicipal Cooperation: The Growing Reform, pp 53-65 in The Municipal Yearbook 2014, Washington, DC: International City County Management Association
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Bel, Germ�, Trevor Brown and Mildred E. Warner (2014). Mixed and Hybrid Models of Public Service Delivery International Public Management Journal, 17(3): 297-307.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Hefetz, Amir, Mildred Warner and Eran Vigoda-Gadot (2014), Concurrent Sourcing in the Public Sector: A Strategy to Manage Contracting Risk, International Public Management Journal, 17(3): 365-386. DOI: 10.1080/10967494.2014.935242
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Choi, M. and Warner, M.E. (2015). Collaboration: The key to building communities for all generations, pp 27-39 in The Municipal Yearbook 2015, Washington, DC: International City County Management Association. http://cms.mildredwarner.org/p/216
  • Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Greenhouse, Esther. (2016) Multigenerational Planning for Rural Resort Communities, Case Study, Planning Across Generations Project, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. www/mildredwarner.org/planning/generations
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Earle, Jody, (2015) Making Music Together: Across Generations. A Case Study of the Dryden Area Intergenerational Band and Chorus, Case Study, Planning Across Generations Project, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. www/mildredwarner.org/planning/generations
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Earle, Jody (2015) A Rural Intergenerational Band and Chorus Rely On Community Cooperation: The Story of the Dryden Area Intergenerational Band and Chorus, Case Study, Planning Across Generations Project, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. www/mildredwarner.org/planning/generations
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2016 Citation: Brown, D.L. and P. Eloundou-Enyegue. Age Structure and Development: Beyond Malthus. In G. Hooks (ed.) Handbook of Development Sociology. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Brown, David L. 2014 Rural Population Change in Social Context pp. 299-310 In Conner Bailey, Leif Jensen & Elizabeth Ransom (eds.) Rural America in a Globalizing World: Problems and Prospects for the 2010s. Morgantown: University of West Virginia Press.
  • Type: Other Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2015 Citation: Committee on National Statistics. 2015. Rationalizing Rural Area Classification for the Economic Research Service: A Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The national Academy Press.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Yunji Kim and Mildred Warner, 2015, Geographies of Stress, State Policy, and Local Restructuring After the Great Recession, Urban Affairs Association, Miami, FL, April 10, 2015.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Warner, M.E., Homsy, G. and Morken, L. 2016. Planning for Aging in Place: Stimulating a Market and Government Response, submitted to Journal of Planning Education and Research
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2016 Citation: Kim, Yunji and Mildred Warner 2015, Pragmatic Municipalism: Local Government Service Delivery in the Great Recession, Submitted to Public Administration.


Progress 09/01/12 to 08/31/13

Outputs
Target Audience: American Planning Association - professional planners (through webinars and conference presentations and publications) and academic planning professors AARP - advice and support on community Liveable Indicators Project Rural Sociological Society - academics and professionals interested in aging Association of Policy and Management - professionals and academics interested in public policy Extension Agents working on community, planning and health issues Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? We hosted a series of webinars with the American Planning Association over the past year. We also hosted a series of facilitated discussions at the APA national conference. Each of these extension workshops was well attended. See detail under Products (Other) below. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The project website, http://www.mildredwarner.org/planning/generations, has become a key resource for practitioners and academics alike. We have disseminated our work at academic conferences – Urban Affairs Association, Association of Public Policy and Management, Rural Sociology and at practitioner conferences: American Planning Association, Generations United, Mayors Innovation Project. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? During the third and final year of the project we will undertake the following: Objective 1 Demographic Change - Our research and outreach highlights the positive and negative implications, often unintended, of population aging at the community level. This broadens policy makers’ perspectives about population aging, which is typically seen in a negative light. We will be examining the local level social and economic implications of natural population decrease (more deaths than births). With secondary data we will then be able to examine how being (or becoming) a natural decrease area affects the availability of public and privately provided services as well as retail sales opportunities. With primary data (surveys, case studies and focus groups) we will examine the lived experience of older persons who reside in natural decrease areas (in comparison with similar aged persons in similar places which are not experiencing natural decrease). Objective 2 Alternative Service Delivery. Over the next year we will continue detailed analysis of the national survey data. We will build models, which link other data from the American Community Survey and the Census of Government finance to explore impacts of fiscal stress on choice of service delivery. We will also explore shifts in dependence on direct public delivery, inter-government cooperation and for profit contracting. We will look especially closely at the human services (especially those related to planning and to housing and economic development) to assess how communities are responding to changing demographic trends. We will also continue to analyze the Maturing of America survey data on elder service delivery and link it both to community planning processes and to community health. Objective 3 - Multi-generational Planning. We expect to close survey collection in February 2014. We will clean the Planning Across Generations survey data and prepare an analysis of basic descriptive statistics. This will be published in ICMA’s Municipal Yearbook in 2015. Once the survey is cleaned, we will begin the process of linking this data to our demographic data, service delivery data and census data. Due to differences in response, we may need to analyze the Planning Across Generations survey separately from the Alternative Service Delivery survey. But links to Census and ACS will enable a robust analysis. We are also building a data base that can be explored in future for case studies. Objective 4 - Policy and Program Innovation. We will continue to develop popular reports for extension audiences. These include a focus on rural places in particular and a focus on gender. We continue to partner with the Small Town and Rural Division of the APA and the Planning and Women Division. With the Planning and Women Division we are giving special attention to a gender lens on planning across generations and will hold a facilitated discussion on this at the 2014 APA meeting. Dr. Warner has been asked to serve on AARP’s Liveability Indicators Task Force, which is developing indicators for liveable communities related to WHO’s 8 domains: housing, transportation, community engagement, economic well being, social supports, built environment, environment and health, and equity. Dr. Warner has also been asked by the APA to help draft its Policy Guide on Aging. This guide will be reviewed and voted on by APA at its annual meeting. We will also work with our advisory committee to evaluate the project and its impact.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This is the second year of a three year project. OBJ. 1. Demographic Transformation. To analyze all US counties to assess demographic transformation and develop a typology. Our research has indicates the important conceptual difference between areas experiencing net in-migration of older persons; those which are experiencing natural population decrease; and those which are simultaneously experiencing both older in-migration and natural decrease. We have developed a longitudinal county-level data base consisting of census, vital statistics, and county business data from 1960 through 2010. We are using this data base to chart the course of both older in-migration and natural decrease over time, and examine the association of older in-migration and natural decrease with access to services and retail trade. In addition, we are conducting in-depth case studies in a number of natural decrease counties to examine the lived experience of older persons residing in areas with more deaths than births. Objective 2 - Alternative Service Delivery. We analyzed the data from the ICMA Profile of Local Government Service Delivery Choices. The 2012 survey was mailed to the chief administrative officers in all municipalities with city-type governments and a population over 2,500 as well as to all functioning counties—a total of 10,552 jurisdictions across the United States. In prior years, only one in four municipalities under 10,000 in population and counties under 25,000 in population were included in the sample. Because of U.S. Department of Agriculture funding, we worked with ICMA to make a special effort to reach small and rural municipalities. Although expansion of the sample frame resulted in a drop in the response rate from 26% to 21%, the 2012 survey had responses from 114 more counties and 471 more municipalities than did the 2007 survey. These extra governments are primarily in the under 10,000 population category, a result of the expanded sample frame for small and rural municipalities. We found that cooperation is now more common than for profit contracting – especially among rural governments. Preliminary analysis was written and will be published as an ICMA yearbook chapter in March 2014. Objective 3 - Multi-generational Planning. After holding many focus groups across the country in year one, we developed a survey for Planning Across Generations and sent that out for review to our advisory committee members as well as other stakeholders. After three months of revisions, we launched the survey with ICMA in May 2013. The third round of responses is still being solicited. Thus far we have over 1200 responses. To ensure coverage of towns and townships, which often have planning responsibilities, we downloaded all the towns and townships from the Census of Governments, investigated (using Census of Government. Finance Data and calls to Town Association representatives and academics from states where towns may not be all that active – to determine which towns had planning functions and should be added to the data base). This intense data base building and review effort resulted in the addition of almost 4000 places to our sample. Objective 4 - Policy and Program Innovation. We developed a whole series of issue briefs – profiled under publications – which we shared at extension events and on our website for extension agents, practicing planners and public policy makers. We also hosted a series of facilitated discussions and webinars with practicing planners to solicit ideas for innovative practice. Summaries of these can be found under Big Ideas for Small Towns: Aging in Place (Facilitated Discussion) April 15, 2013, sponsored by APA Small Town and Rural Division. Read the newsletter articles prepared from the facilitated discussion: Parks & Sidewalks, Home Delivery and Mobile Services, Promoting Online Social Networks, New Options for Transportation, Retrofitted Housing, Rezoning for Renewal, Shared Housing These changes in knowledge reflected in our work, are resulting in changes in action among both academics and professionals working on local government and aging and children’s issues. Changes in conditions will take longer. But building interest among practitioners is the first step. And now we can support that with data (both survey and case study) to support that change.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Warner, Mildred E. and Lingwen Zheng, (2013). Business Incentive Adoption in the Recession, Economic Development Quarterly, 27(2): 90-101. DOI: 10.1177/0891242413479140
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Warner, M.E. and J. Rukus (2013), Planners Role in Creating Family Friendly Communities: Action, Participation and Resistance, Journal of Urban Affairs, 35(5): 627-644. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/juaf.12014/pdf
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Warner, Mildred E. and Lydia Morken. 2013. Building Child and Age Friendly Communities in Tight Fiscal Times, pp 47-56 in The Municipal Year Book 2013. Washington, DC: International City County Management Association.
  • Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Warner, M.E. and J. Rukus. 2013. Planning for Family Friendly Communities: Motivators, Barriers and Benefits, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University. http://cms.mildredwarner.org/p/165
  • Type: Websites Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Issue Briefs prepared by 2013 CRP Workshop class for American Planning Association Conference, Chicago, IL, April 2013. http://www.mildredwarner.org/planning/generations Overview Rural Responses Economic Importance Reconnecting Planning to Health Funding Multigenerational Schoolyards Neighborhood Schools The Planning Gender Gap Demographics Matter Informal Networks Communication
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thiede, B. and D.L. Brown. Hurricane Katrina: Who Stayed and Why? Population Research and Policy Review. Vol. 32: 803-824.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Brown, David L. European Rural Population Change Matters, But Demography is Not Destiny. Przeglad Socjologiczny. Vol. 30.
  • Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Glasgow, Nina, Hosik Min and David L. Brown. Volunteerism and Social Entrepreneurship Among Older In-migrants to Rural Areas. Pp. 231-250 In Nina Glasgow and Eddy Berry (eds.) Rural Ageing in 21st Century America. Dordrecht: Springer.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Warner, Mildred, George Homsy and Lydia Morken, 2013. Planning for Aging in Place: Stimulating a Market and Government Response, presented at the Urban Affairs Association conference, San Francisco, CA, April 4, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Mildred Warner, Lydia Morken and George Homsy, 2013. Aging America: Challenges for Planning & Service Delivery in Rural America, presented at Rural Sociological Society Conference, New York, NY, Aug. 8, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Amanda Micklow and Mildred Warner 2013. Remaking Place: Reshaping Suburban Communities to Serve a More Diverse Population, presented at Rural Sociological Society Conference, New York, NY, Aug. 9, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Submitted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Yuanshuo Xu and Mildred Warner 2013, Decentralization, Local Fiscal Effort and Rural Inequality: US Counties 2002?2007, presented at Rural Sociological Society Conference, New York, NY, Aug. 8, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Positive and Negative Implications of an Aging Population for Rural and Urban Communities. Ithaca College. April 24
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Rural Aging in the 21st Century Mann Library, Cornell Univ. March, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Age Structure and Development: Exploring the Links ASA development Sociology Conference, Salt lake City. October, 24.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Custodial Grandparent Families in Urban and Rural America. Rural Sociological Society. July, 2013. New York City


Progress 09/01/11 to 08/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This is the first year of a three year project. Our study has four objectives. 1. Demographic Transformation. To analyze all US counties to assess demographic transformation and develop a typology. 2. Alternative Service Delivery. To conduct a national survey on alternative service delivery with the international City County Management Association (ICMA) to assess differences in service delivery by metro status and assess how local governments are responding to fiscal crisis with shifts in service arrangements, 3. Multi-Generational Planning. To hold focus groups, design a survey and conduct case studies to determine how local governments provide services to the elderly and to families with children and how and whether multi-generational planning approaches are being explored. 4. Program and Policy Innovation. To develop popular publications, webinars and technical assistance to promote local level program innovation and policy change. We made progress on objectives 2, 3, and 4 during year one. Objective one was delayed until year two as we were still awaiting availability of Census data. Under objective 2, we redesigned the Alternative Service Delivery survey and conducted it with the International City County Management Association. Data are now being cleaned. Under objective 3, we conducted focus groups with local government leaders and planners in California in January, New York in February, at the transforming Local Government conference in Kansas in March, at the American Planning Association Conference in April and at the International City County Management conference in Arizona in October. We are now working on survey design. We also worked with National Area Agencies on Aging to analyze their Maturing of America survey results on service delivery differences by metro status. Under Objective 4 (dissemination) we held a number of events over the year. We presented on service delivery priorities at the Big Ideas conference in Colorado in October, 2011 and the keynote address on child care and economic development for the Workforce Development Institute in New York in February, 2012 and for the Illinois Action for Children, Public Policy Conference in March, 2012. We held webinars with the Illinois Cooperative Extension system on Privatization and Intergovernmental Agreements in January, 2012 and a national webinar with the Planning and Women Division in March, 2012 on The Economic Impact of Families: Children, Seniors and Caregivers. In April, 2012 we organized a session at the national conference of the American Planning Association on Planning for Child and Age Friendly Communities. Additional Extension products produced during the first year include four issue briefs on 1. the economic importance of families with young children, 2. case studies on strategies to address the needs of elders in Atlanta and New York, 3. rural responses to planning for the aging population, and 4. joint use agreements between communities and schools. PARTICIPANTS: Mildred Warner is project director. She provided leadership to all research design, writing and extension projects. David Kay is an extension associate who provided assistance in reviewing data. Training and Professional Development: George Homsy is a PhD student working on this project. Lydia Morken and Yuanshuo Yang are masters students working on this project. Partner Organizations include the International City County Management Association, American Planning Association - Small Town and Rural Division and Women and Planning Division. Collaborators include Members of Advisory Committee: Esther Greenhouse (Gerontology Planner), Billie Young (National Assoc for the Education of Young Children), Kristen Anderson (Child Care planner Redwood, CA), Rodney Harrell (AARP), Elizabeth Tyler (Women and Planning Division of the Am. Planning Assoc), David Gattis (Small Town and Rural Planning Division). TARGET AUDIENCES: Target Audiences: Planners, local government leaders. Efforts: See webinars, conferences and issue briefs listed under outputs above. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
We worked on survey design and conducted background research to better understand demographic transformation and service delivery transformation. We also explored the resonance of a multi-generational planning paradigm as a solution to the crises of demographic transformation, fiscal stress and service delivery response. Changes in knowledge reflect better understanding of the nature of rural aging, of fiscal crisis among local governments and the nature of service delivery in rural communities. Several journal articles, listed under publications below, report on the changes in knowledge generated by this project to date. Regarding rural aging we know that elders represent a larger percentage of the population in rural areas and both in-migrants as well as long time residents are more likely to age in place. Regarding fiscal stress we found that that the Great Recession has had a lagged effect on local governments. Tax receipts, based primarily on the property tax, showed the greatest challenge for local governments beginning in 2010, two years after the financial crisis began and just after the federal stimulus ended. This fiscal crisis has created a secondary recession in the public sector with attendant pressures on service delivery. To develop a baseline understanding of the nature of service delivery restructuring, we studied the differences between cooperation and privatization looking at prior ICMA surveys of alternative service delivery. We found that cooperative approaches offer both efficiency and equity benefits - especially for rural communities. Changes in action are reflected in invitations to present at local government and policy conferences. These invitations reflect shifts in what local governments and policy makers consider priority issues. The openness of planners and local governments to webinars, conference presentations and focus groups, reflects their recognition of the importance of demographic transformation and its implications for service design and delivery. We used a process of collective critical reflection to engage in a theory-based evaluation using our logic model as a guide. Our advisory committee provided critical ongoing evaluation to the project as we worked on focus, scope and design of focus groups and survey instruments. One issue has been whether to focus on children and elders separately, or in combination using the multi-generational planning label. We found elder concerns tend to swamp child concerns. Thus the advisory committee recommended the project change our logo to explicitly show children and elders together with caregivers with a tag line of Planning Across Generations. This helps frame the work to resonate with our local government audience. Changes in Conditions. Our project is the first to study multi-generational planning and we will be developing the base line for future research. We have analyzed prior surveys by National Area Agencies on Aging on service delivery for elders and by the American Planning Association on planning focused on families with young children and found that smaller and rural communities lag in service delivery.

Publications

  • Warner, M. E. 2011.Competition or Cooperation in Urban Service Delivery Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, 82(4): 421-435.
  • Warner, M.E. 2012. Local Government Restructuring in a Time of Fiscal Stress, chapter in Impact of the Great Recession on Public Sector Employment, ed. by Daniel J.B. Mitchell, Editor. Labor Employment Research Association.
  • Warner, M.E. and A. Hefetz 2012. In-Sourcing and Outsourcing: The Dynamics of Privatization among US Municipalities 2002-2007, Journal of the American Planning Association, 78(3)313-327. DOI:10.1080/01944363.2012.715552
  • Warner, M.E. and Baran-Rees, R. 2012. The Economic Importance of Families with Children, Issue Brief, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University. http://www.mildredwarner.org/p/129
  • Warner, M. E. 2012. Privatization and Urban Governance: The Continuing Challenges of Efficiency, Voice and Integration, Cities, 29(Supplement 2) s38-s43.
  • Girth, A., A. Hefetz, J. Johnston and M.E. Warner 2012. Outsourcing Public Service Delivery: Management Responses in Noncompetitive Markets, Public Administration Review, 2(6): 887-900. DOI: 10.111/j.1540-6210.2012.02596.x.
  • Glasgow, N. and D.L. Brown, 2012. Rural Ageing in the United States: Trends and Contexts, Journal of Rural Studies. 28.
  • Glasgow, N, H. Min and D. L. Brown. 2012f. Volunteerism and Social Entrepreneurship Among Older In-migrants to Rural Areas. In N. Glasgow and E. Berry (eds.) Rural Ageing in 21st Century America. Dordrecht: Springer.
  • Hefetz, A., Warner, M.E. and Vigoda-Gadot, E. 2012. Privatization and Inter-Municipal Contracting: US Local Government Experience 1992-2007, Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy 30 (4): 675-692. doi:10.1068/c11166
  • Morken, L. 2012. Cities Plan for the Aging Population: Lessons from New York City and Atlanta. Ithaca, NY: Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University. http://www.mildredwarner.org/p/134
  • Morken, L. and R. Baran-Rees. 2012. Joint Use: School Community Collaboration. Issue Brief. Ithaca, NY: Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University. http://www.mildredwarner.org/p/147
  • Morken, L. and M. E. Warner. 2012. Planning for the Aging Population: Rural Responses to the Challenge. Issue Brief. Ithaca, NY: Department of City and Regional Planning, Cornell University. http://www.mildredwarner.org/p/146
  • Philip, L., D. L. Brown. 2012. Demographic Ageing in Rural Areas: Comparative Perspectives from the UK and US. Ch. 4 in Shucksmith, M., D. L. Brown, S. Shortall, M. Warner, and J. Vergunst (eds.) Rural Transformations and Rural Policies in the UK and US. New York: Routledge.