Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:Researchers, policy makers, agricultural producers, and agribusiness stakeholders. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Graduate student training. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Published Journal Articles, theses, and reports. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
This project combinedextensive and up-to-date weather and climate data with state-of-the-art estimation techniques to quantify the impact of weather and climate on crop production in Kansas and the Great Plains. Using the best available forecasts on projected climate change, the results demonstrated how crop production in the region will be affected by potential changes in climate, including agronomic and economic impacts. The project quantifiedthe impact of weather and climate on Kansas and Great Plains food and feed grain production, including agronomic and economic impacts. Multiple refereed journal articles in agricultural economics and agronomy journals; outreach reports to include presentations at Risk and Profit conference, poster and paper presentations at professional meetings, and media reports; training of graduate students in the analysis of agricultural production under climate change. The project provided two major results: (1)Enhanced knowledge and understanding of the impact of weather and climate on grain production in Kansas and the Great Plains, and (2)Improved ability of Kansas and Great Plains grain producers to make acreage and other production decisions based on past and projected future weather, climate, and economic variables.
Publications
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, "The Economics of Food and Agricultural Markets" (2016). New Prairie Press eBooks. 12. http://newprairiepress.org/ebooks/12
- Type:
Books
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, and Paul W. Barkley. Principles of Agricultural Economics, 2nd Edition. 2016. Oxford, UK: Routledge. Paperback: 978-1-138-91410-0. Hardback: 978-1-138-91408-7. E-book: 978-1-315-69100-8. www.routledge.com/cw/barkley
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Tack, J., A. Barkley, and N. Hendricks. Irrigation offsets heat stress in wheat production. Nature Climate Change. In review.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, and Brian Coffey. An Economics Model of Student Learning. Journal of Economic Education. In review.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Dlamini, T.S., L.L. Nalley, F. Tsiboe A. Barkley, and A. Shew. "The Economic Impact of the South African Agricultural Research Councils Dry Beans Breeding Program. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. Forthcoming.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Nalley, L.L., A. Durand-Morat, G. Thoma, F. Tsiboe, A, Shew, J. Tack, A. Barkley. "The Production, Consumption and Environmental Impacts of Rice Hybridization in the United States." Agronomy Journal. Forthcoming.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2017
Citation:
Nti, F., and A. Barkley. "Wheat Variety Yield Data: Do Commercial and Public Performance Tests Provide the Same Information?" Agricultural Economics. Impact factor: 1.739. Forthcoming.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Brye, K.R., Nalley, L.L., J. Tack, BL Dixon, A.P. Barkley, C Rogers, AD Smartt, RJ Norman, K Jagadish. Factors affecting methane emissions from rice production in the Lower Mississippi River Valley, USA. Geoderma Regional, 2016 7, 223-229.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Nalley, L.L., J. Tack, A Barkley, K. Jagadish, and C. Brye. "Quantifying the Agronomic and Economic Performance of Hybrid and Conventional Rice Varieties" Agronomy Journal, 2016, 108(4):1-10. Impact Factor: 1.441.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Nalley, L.L., B. Dixon, J. Tack, A Barkley, and K. Jagadish, and. "Optimal Harvest Moisture Content for Maximizing Mid-South Rice Milling Yields and Returns," Agronomy Journal, 2016, 108(2):701-712. Impact Factor: 1.441.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Rife, Trevor; Poland, Jesse; Nalley, Lawton. "Quantifying Variety-specific Heat Resistance and the Potential for Adaptation to Climate Change" Global Change Biology, August 2016, 22 2904-2912. Impact factor: 8.044.
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:Researchers in agricultural economics and agronomy. Wheat industry participants. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?"Chipotle: An Economist's View."Presented at Department of Agricultural Economics Risk and Profit Conference, Manhattan, Kansas. August 20, 2015. "Global Agriculture: An Economist's View."Presented to College of Agriculture Honor Students, February 4, 2015. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We have several articles in progress on the impact of weather and climate on wheat yields. We will continue to complete and publish these articles.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The book, Depolarizing Food and Agriculture: An Economic Approach explores many issues in food and agriculture that are increasingly polarized. These include industrial vs. sustainable agriculture, conventional vs. organic production methods, and global vs. local food sourcing, to name only three. This book addresses the origins, validity, consequences, and potential resolution of these and other divergences. Political and legal actions have resulted in significant monetary and psycho-social costs for groups on both sides of these divides. Rhetoric on many issues has caused misinformation and confusion among consumers, who are unsure about the impact of their food choices on nutrition, health, the environment, animal welfare, and hunger. In some cases distrust has intensified to embitterment on both sides of many issues, and even to violence. The book uses economic principles to help readers better understand the divisiveness that prevails in the agricultural production, food processing and food retailing industries. The authors propose solutions to promote resolution and depolarization between advocates with seemingly irreconcilable differences. A multifaceted, diverse, but targeted approach to food production and consumption is suggested to promote social well-being, and reduce or eliminate misinformation, anxiety, transaction costs and hunger. The study, "Effect of Warming Temperatures on US Wheat Yields" in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences provides insights for wheat breeding efforts, public policy, and agricultural decision making related to climate change.The findings provide opportunities for the international wheat breeding community to intensify research efforts to increase resistance to heat stress during focused developmental stages. These efforts could result in net positive warming effects since reduced exposure to freeze was found to be a yield-enhancing benefit of warming.Results indicate that advancements in heat resistance could come at the expense of higher average yields, and that there is currently limited scope for producer adaptation through alternative variety selection.Results also suggest that irrigation could help mitigate the effects of warming, which has implications for policies focused on the conservation of increasingly scarce water resources. The study, "The Impact of Weather and Climate on Kansas Grain Production: An Economic Approach" begins with the ideas that climate has a large, significant impact on crop production in Kansas and the Great Plains. Since climate is likely to change in the future, the need arises for careful measurement and understanding of the impact of weather and climate on crop production, and resulting economic impacts. This project combines extensive and up-to-date weather and climate data with state-of-the-art estimation techniques to quantify the impact of weather and climate on crop production in Kansas and the Great Plains. Using the best available forecasts on projected climate change, the results will demonstrate how crop production in the region will be affected by potential changes in climate, including agronomic and economic impacts. Expected project outcomes include both (1) enhanced knowledge and understanding of the impact of weather and climate on grain production in Kansas and the Great Plains, and (2) improved ability of Kansas and Great Plains grain producers to make acreage and other production decisions based on past and projected future weather, climate, and economic variables. The article, "Flipping the College Classroom for Enhanced Student Learning" reports that the "flipped" classroom has received a great deal of attention in recent years. The major idea behind the flipped classroom is to move lectures to outside of class time, and move learning exercises and assessment into the classroom. Many teachers who have experienced this shift in instructional style have found that the flipped classroom is a change in mindset more than a change in methodology. The rapidly growing literature provides evidence that many teachers of flipped classrooms believed the experience to be exalting, with positive student learning and engagement outcomes. The primary goal in flipping the classroom for a first-year, introductory course in Principles of Agricultural Economics was to maximize student outcomes by better utilizing the face-to-face time with students. The design and implementation of the flipped classroom was a highly rewarding and educational experience for the instructor, and resulted in higher levels of student learning and satisfaction. Flipped courses allow teachers to provide individualized attention to at-risk students, and students who need motivation or academic skills.
Publications
- Type:
Books
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, and Paul W. Barkley. 2015. Depolarization of Food and Agriculture: An Economic Approach. Earthscan from Routledge, Oxford, England. Paperback: 978-0-415-71423-5. Hardback: 978-0-415-71422-8. E-book: 978-1-315-88282-6.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Tack, Jesse, Andrew Barkley, and L. L. Nalley. 2015. "The Effect of Warming Temperatures on U.S. Wheat Yields" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, June 2, 2015. Pp. 6931-6936. Impact Factor: 9.809.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew. 2015. Flipping the College Classroom for Enhanced Student Learning. NACTA Journal. September(59,3): 240-244.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Boussios, David, and Andrew Barkley. 2014. "Grain Supply Response to Economic and Biophysical Factors" Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, December(43,3):335-356. Lead article.
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Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
Target Audience: Policy makers, agricultural economists, agronomists, farmers and ranchers in Kansasand the Great Plains. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Barkley, Andrew, J. Tack, L.L. Nalley, J. Bergtold, R. Bowden, and A. Fritz. The Impact of Climate Disease, and Wheat Breeding on Wheat Variety Yields in Kansas, 1985-2011. KAES Bulletin 665. Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, June 2006. August 2013. Contribution no. 14-060-S from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. Press release reprinted in Agriculture.com; ScienceDaily; AGprofessional.com; PhysOrg; ThinkProgress.org; Machinefinder.com What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We will continue to explore the relationships between weather and wheat yields in Kansas and the Great Plains. Of particular interest is the impact of extreme heat on wheat yields. Also, data on genetic relationships has been acquired, and we hope to estimate the impact of heat and drought on wheat varieties, in order to identify the genetic markers associated with heat and drought tolerance.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
In an Agronomy Journal article entitled, "Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985 to 2011 Andrew Barkley,* Jesse Tack, Lawton Lanier Nalley, Jason Bergtold, Robert Bowden, and Allan Fritz, it was found that wheat (Triticum aestivumL.) yields in Kansas have increased due to wheat breeding and improved agronomic practices, but are subject to climate and disease challenges. The objective of this research is to quantify the impact of weather, disease, and genetic improvement on wheat yields of varieties grown in 11 locations in Kansas from 1985 to 2011. Wheat variety yield data from Kansas performance tests were matched with comprehensive location-specific disease and weather data, including seasonal precipitation, monthly air temperature, air temperature and solar radiation around anthesis, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). The results show that wheat breeding programs increased yield by 34 kg ha-1yr-1. From 1985 through 2011, wheat breeding increased average wheat yields by 917 kg ha-1, or 27% of total yield. Weather was found to have a large impact on wheat yields. Simulations demonstrated that a 1°C increase in projected mean temperature was associated with a decrease in wheat yields of 715 kg ha-1, or 21%. Weather, diseases, and genetics all had significant impacts on wheat yields in 11 locations in Kansas during 1985 to 2011. In a second published article, entitled, "Producer Expectations and the Extensive Margin in Grain Supply Response, ' by David Boussios and Andrew Barkley, it was found that grain supply is the joint effect of both area and yield; however, research often targets either one or the other. The research presented here estimates the complete supply elasticity of grains using novel approaches to approximate producers' price and weather expectations on both yield and acres planted. The results from this approach combining acreage and yield show the negative impact of expanded production on average yields and the supply response. Additionally, the research extends previous methods of approximating producers' price expectations through the use of historical basis prices. In a third article, entitled, "Heterogeneous effects of warming and drought on selected wheat variety yields, ' by Jesse Tack, Andrew Barkley, and Lawton Lanier Nalley, it was found that climate change is likely to significantly impact agricultural production in the Great Plains region of the Central United States. This study estimated the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on wheat (triticum aestivum) variety yield distributions using the moment-based maximum entropy (MBME) model. This approach allows for quantification of potential weather impacts on the yield distribution, and allows these effects to vary across varieties. The unique data set matches wheat variety trial data for1985 to 2011 with weather data from the exact trial site for 11 locations throughout Kansas. Ten widely-planted varieties with a range of biotic and abiotic characteristics were included for comparison. Weather scenarios were simulated for baseline, increased temperature (one-degree Celsius warming), decreased precipitation (tenth-percentile rainfall outcome), and a combination warming and drought scenario. Warming resulted in an 11 % yield reduction, drought a 22 % reduction, and warming and drought a cumulative 33 % reduction. These effects vary across varieties. Alternative measures of yield risk (e.g. yield variance and coefficient of variation) were also constructed under each scenario and a similar pattern of heterogeneous impacts emerges. The key findings are that (i)exposure to warming and drought lead to mean yield reductions coupled with increased yield risk for all varieties, and (ii) newer (post 2005) seed varieties have a yield advantage over older varieties, however this advantage is reduced under warming and drought condition.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Boussios, David, and Andrew Barkley. "Grain Supply Response to Economic and Biophysical Factors" Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, December 2014 (43,3):1-22
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Tack, Jesse, Andrew Barkley, and L. L. Nalley. Heterogeneous Effects of Warming and Drought on Selected Wheat Variety Yields. Climatic Change, August 2014, 125(3-4), 489-500. Impact Factor: 4.622.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, Jesse Tack, Lawton Lanier Nalley, Jason Bergtold, Robert Bowden, and Allan Fritz. Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985-2011." Agronomy Journal. 2014(106):227-235. Impact Factor: 1.542.
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Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: Policy makers, agricultural economists, agronomists, farmers and ranchers in Kansasand the Great Plains. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Published one Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station Publication: Barkley, Andrew, J. Tack, L.L. Nalley, J. Bergtold, R. Bowden, and A. Fritz. The Impact of Climate Disease, and Wheat Breeding on Wheat Variety Yields in Kansas, 1985-2011. KAES Bulletin 665. Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, June 2006. August 2013. Contribution no. 14-060-S from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. Press release reprinted in Agriculture.com; ScienceDaily; AGprofessional.com; PhysOrg; ThinkProgress.org; Machinefinder.com What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? First, the research project to measure the impacts of weather on wheat varieties in Kansas will be continued, with publication of major findings in journals. Second, research has been conducted to estimate the impact of weather and climate on the production of wheat, corn, sorghum (milo), and soybeans in Kansas. This research will be published in a journal this year. Third, research has been done to identify and quantify the determinants of international wheat trade for the period 1999 to 2008. This article will be submitted to a journal this year.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Four projects have been ongoing during the initial phases of this project. First, the research project to measure the impacts of weather on wheat varieties in Kansas is in progress, and has now been expanded using state of the art statistical modeling. We have published one journal article, completed two additional journal articles for submission, and published one Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station Publication. Second, research has been conducted to estimate the impact of weather and climate on the production of wheat, corn, sorghum (milo), and soybeans in Kansas. This research in in review at a journal. Third, research has been done to identify and quantify the determinants of international wheat trade for the period 1999 to 2008. This article will be submitted to a journal this year. Fourth, we have published a journal article on the determinants of climate change vulnerability and coping mechanisms in Northern Ghana.
Publications
- Type:
Books
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, and Paul W. Barkley. Principles of Agricultural Economics (2013). Oxford, UK: Routledge, 358 pages. Paperback: 978-0-415-54070-4. Hardback: 978-0-415-54069-8. E-book: 978-0-203-37114-5.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, Jesse Tack, Lawton Lanier Nalley, Jason Bergtold, Robert Bowden, and Allan Fritz. Weather, Disease, and Wheat Breeding Effects on Kansas Wheat Varietal Yields, 1985-2011." Agronomy Journal. 2014(106):227-235.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, and Mary Ellen Barkley. Long Term Knowledge from Short Term Study Abroad in Brazil and South Africa: Facilitating Effective International Experiences. NACTA Journal. September 2013.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Nti, Frank, and Andrew Barkley. "The impact of human capital on the response to climate change vulnerability among farm families in Northern Ghana" Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development. 2013(8, 2).
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Barkley, Andrew, J. Tack, L.L. Nalley, J. Bergtold, R. Bowden, and A. Fritz. The Impact of Climate Disease, and Wheat Breeding on Wheat Variety Yields in Kansas, 1985-2011. KAES Bulletin 665. Kansas State University Agricultural Experiment Station and Cooperative Extension Service, June 2006. August 2013. Contribution no. 14-060-S from the Kansas Agricultural Experiment Station. Press release reprinted in Agriculture.com; ScienceDaily; AGprofessional.com; PhysOrg; ThinkProgress.org; Machinefinder.com
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Accepted
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Nti, Frank and Andrew Barkley. Wheat Variety Data: Do commercial and Public Performance Tests Provide the Same Information? Presented as a selected paper at the annual meetings of the Western Agricultural Economics Association, Monterey, California, June, 2013.
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Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Four projects have been ongoing during the initial phases of this project. First, the research project to measure the impacts of weather on wheat varieties in Kansas is in progress, and has now been expanded using state of the art statistical modeling. Second, research has been conducted to estimate the impact of weather and climate on the production of wheat, corn, sorghum (milo), and soybeans in Kansas. Third, research has been done to identify and quantify the determinants of international wheat trade for the period 1999 to 2008. Fourth, we have completed a M.S. thesis on the determinants of climate change vulnerability and coping mechanisms in Northern Ghana. This project will be submitted for publication. PARTICIPANTS: Principal Investigators: A. Barkley. Collaborators: K. Coble, Giles Distinguished Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University; Lawton Lanier Nalley, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas; David Boussios, M.S. student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University; Jessica Johnson, M.S. student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University; Jesse Tack, Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Policy makers, agricultural economists, agronomists, farmers and ranchers in Kansas and the Great Plains. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
To carefully quantify the impact of weather on wheat varieties, Kansas wheat variety performance test data have been collected for the period 1984 to 2011. These data include yield, planting date, heading date, variety, and breeder. Weather data have been collected for each wheat yield test location for the same time period. We have collaborated with Jesse Tack and Keith Coble at Mississippi State University to incorporate state of the art statistical procedures. The second project extended previous literature on wheat, a statistical production function was estimated. A range of potential climate change scenarios was employed to ensure that all likely future climates are included in the research. This research identified and quantified the impact of biophysical and economic variables on Kansas crop acreage and yields for the period 1977- 2007. This project resulted in completion of an M.S. thesis, and is in review at a journal. The third project quantified the determinants of international wheat trade from 1999-2008. Regression results indicated that economic factors play a major role in wheat trade. The results highlighted that domestic price, national income, distance between nations, exchange rate, inflation and respective populations are also important in determining the flow of wheat. The impact of weather and climate variables on the international trade of wheat are discussed, with implications about the impact of future changes in weather on wheat trade. This project has been accepted for publication. Fourth, a study of the determinants of climate change vulnerability and coping mechanisms in Northern Ghana has been completed. This study examines the effect of extreme climatic conditions (drought, flood, and bushfires) on the livelihood of households in the Bawku West district of Ghana. The research identified the mechanisms with which households cope in such situations, and analyzed factors influencing the adoption of coping strategies for flood, coping strategies for drought, and coping strategies for bushfires. The main effect of these climatic extreme events on households included destruction of crops, livestock and buildings; food and water shortage; poor yield or harvest and limited fields for livestock grazing.
Publications
- Barkley, A. and F.G. Chumley. 2012. A Doubled Haploid Laboratory for Kansas Wheat Breeding: An Economic Analysis of Biotechnology Adoption. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review. May (15, 2): 99-120.
- Hikaru Hanawa Peterson, Andrew Barkley, Adriana Chacon-Cascante, Terry L. Kastens. 2012. The Motivation for Organic Grain Farming in the United States: Profits, Lifestyle, or the Environment Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. May (44, 2): 137-155.
- DAntoni, Jeremy M., Ashok K. Mishra, Andrew P. Barkley. 2012. Feast or flee: Government Payments and Labor Migration from U.S. Agriculture. Journal of Policy Modeling. 34: 181-192.
- Johnson, Jessica, and Andrew Barkley. 2012. Trade Agreement Impact on Trade Flows, Trade Creation, and Trade Diversion: The Determinants of International Wheat Trade, 1999-2008,Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, 8(1)December: 1-15.
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Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Activities: Three projects have been ongoing during the initial phases of this project. First, the research project to measure the impacts of weather on wheat varieties in Kansas has been initiated. Second, research has been conducted to estimate the impact of weather and climate on the production of wheat, corn, sorghum (milo), and soybeans in Kansas. Third, research has been done to identify and quantify the determinants of international wheat trade for the period 1999 to 2008. Product: Jessica Johnson. M.S. Thesis. Determinants of Wheat Trade, 1999-2008. December 2011. PARTICIPANTS: Principal Investigators: A. Barkley Collaborators: Lawton Lanier Nalley, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas. David Boussios, M.S. student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University. Jessica Johnson, M.S. student, Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University. TARGET AUDIENCES: Policy makers, agricultural economists, agronomists, farmers and ranchers in Kansas and the Great Plains. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
To carefully quantify the impact of weather on wheat varieties, an extensive literature review of the impact of weather and climate variables on wheat yields has been conducted. Kansas wheat variety performance test data have been collected for the period 1984 to 2011. These data include yield, planting date, heading date, variety, and breeder. Weather data have been collected for each wheat yield test location for the same time period. Extensive manipulation of the weather data into useable variables is being undertaken, following previous literature. The second project extended previous literature on wheat, a statistical production function was estimated. A range of potential climate change scenarios was employed to ensure that all likely future climates are included in the research. This research identified and quantified the impact of biophysical and economic variables on Kansas crop acreage and yields for the period 1977- 2007. Due to long production times, agricultural producers must make vital decisions with imperfect information, based on expectations of future agronomic and economic conditions. This research analyzed the impact of prices, climate, and yield expectations on crop acreage allocations and yield responses for the four major commodities produced in Kansas: corn, soybeans, what, and grain sorghum (milo). By modeling and analyzing both biophysical and economic variables, total supply response was estimated for potential future changes in prices, yields, climate, and weather outcomes. The analysis of both biophysical and economic conditions allowed for the estimation of supply response in the short and long run. The results provide updated, more precise results than previous research which has often separated acreage and yield functions, despite the relationship between the two. The third project quantified the determinants of international wheat trade from 1999-2008. Regression results indicated that economic factors play a major role in wheat trade. The results highlighted that domestic price national income, distance between nations, exchange rate, inflation and respective populations are also important in determining the flow of wheat. This analysis extends previous international wheat trade research through the inclusion of multilateral relationships and bilateral trade agreements. This study showed that not being a member of the WTO is a positive factor in the trade of wheat. This study examined both trade creation and trade diversion for each agreement specifically for their effects on wheat trade. The estimated models show that nations which developed agreements with contrasting qualities from themselves are likely to see higher gains from free trade agreements. However, when nations engage in agreements with nations in a similar location or income structure, trade diversion can occur. The impact of weather and climate variables on the international trade of wheat are discussed, with implications about the impact of future changes in weather on wheat trade.
Publications
- Boussios, David, and A.P. Barkley. 2011. Agricultural Producers Acreage and Yield Responses Using Various Expectations. Presented at Research and the State Graduate Student Poster Session. Kansas State University, Manhattan, Kansas. October 31.
- Boussios, David. 2011. M.S. Thesis. Agricultural Producers Acreage and Yield Responses Using Various Expectations. December.
- Jessica Johnson. 2011. M.S. Thesis. Determinants of Wheat Trade, 1999-2008. December.
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