Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/16
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunitiesfor training a postdoctoral research fellow (Jia Yang) and two graduate students (Rongting Xu and Yuanzhi Yao), involving model development, calibration, validation, model simulation at thesite and regional scales, and prepare model input generation and model results analysis. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Findings and results drawn from this project have been presented at national conferences: Xu, R. et al., (2016) Global Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agricultural Soils: Magnitude and Uncertainties Associated with Input Data and Model Parameters, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, December 2016 We also disseminated results through journal publications (see publication items). What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
In the past year, we improved the carbon, nitrogen, and water processes in the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) according to site observations collected across multiple vegetation types in the US. A new hydrological model was coupled into the DLEM to simulateevapotranspiration, runoff, water yield, and river discharge. The leaching of carbon and nitrogen processes from land to aquaticsystems was explicitly simulated, which improved model's capacity in simulating the terrestrial carbon balance, nitrogen availability, and nutrient exports to coastal regions. Additionally, a new cropland model was developed on the platform of DLEM to simulate crop phenology, photosynthesis, carbon allocation, grain filling, and yield. A consistent set of gridded, time-series data of climate (temperature, precipitation, radiation) from 2006 to 2100 were developed based on the simulations of multiple Earth system models under the RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85 GHG emission scenarios. Meanwhile, a new gridded future nitrogen deposition data was developed according to the ACCMIP model simulations. These new datasets were applied to drive the DLEM to investigate the impact of future global changes on land ecosystem productivity, carbon sequestration, and carbon storage in the Southern US.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Yang, J., Tian, H., Tao, B., Ren, W., Pan, S., Liu, Y. and Wang, Y., 2015. A growing importance of large fires in conterminous United States during 19842012. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120(12), pp.2625-2640.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Ren, W., Tian, H., Cai, W.J., Lohrenz, S.E., Hopkinson, C.S., Huang, W.J., Yang, J., Tao, B., Pan, S. and He, R., 2016. Century-long increasing trend and variability of dissolved organic carbon export from the Mississippi River basin driven by natural and anthropogenic forcing. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 30(9), pp.1288-1299.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2016
Citation:
Yang, Q., Tian, H., Li, X., Ren, W., Zhang, B., Zhang, X. and Wolf, J., 2016. Spatiotemporal patterns of livestock manure nutrient production in the conterminous United States from 1930 to 2012. Science of The Total Environment, 541, pp.1592-1602.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Ren, W., Tian, H., Tao, B., Yang, J., Pan, S., Cai, W.J., Lohrenz, S.E., He, R. and Hopkinson, C.S., 2015. Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120(4), pp.724-736.
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Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?This project has provided opportunities for training a PhD graduate student (Bowen Zhang), involving model development, test, calibration, validation, model runs at site and regional scales, and model input data generation and model results analyses. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Findings and results drawn from this project have been included in the recent US National Climate Assessment, which provides information for climate change policy makers to develop strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in the southern states. In addition we gave following presentation in national conferences: Tian, H. (2013) The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM). ASA, CSSA, & SSSA International Annual Meeting, Nov, 3-6, 2013, Tampa, FL. Ren, W. and H. Tian, (2013) Climate change impacts on US crop productivity in the context of multiple global changes during 1951-2099. ASA, CSSA and SSSA International Annual Meetings, Tampa, Florida (Talk), November 3-6, 2013. Chen, G. D.J. Hayes; H. Tian (2013) Effects of increasing forest plantation area and management practices on carbon storage and water use in the United States. AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 9-13 December 2013. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We plan to further improve DLEM performance in simulating disturbance impact on carbon and water cycling and refine spatially-explicit data sets to drive the DLEM ecosystem model. Specifically, we will develop spatial and temporal data for manure production and application rates since the 1930s in the United States based on the county-level inventory datasets. For assessing climate impact on ecosystems at regional scale, we will downscale future climate data during 2011-2099 from the North America Regional Climate Changes Assessment Program. Then we will use the improved DLEM to predict terrestrial carbon sequestration of the United States in the 21st century in different climate scenarios.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
In the project year(October 1,2013- Sept. 30, 2014), we have done following work for the Hatch project: 1) The Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) has been improved, including the cohort structure, hydrological processes and river routing, soil decomposition, and fire module. 2) We developed model input datasets from 1901 to 2099 based on historical inventory/observation datasets and future projections, including climate, nitrogen deposition, atmospheric composition, land use and land management; 3) The DLEM has been driven by these input data to estimate climate change impacts on US crop productivity in the context of multiple global changes during 1951-2099.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Zhang, C., H. Tian, S. Pan, G. Lockaby, and A. Chappelka (2014) Multi-factor controls on terrestrial carbon dynamics in urbanized areas, Biogeosciences, 11, 7107-7124. doi:10.5194/bg-11-7107-2014
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Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems: Dr. Chaoqun Lu, a research fellow at Auburn University, will replace the role of Dr. Guangsheng Chen who was a postdoc research fellow working on this Hatch project, but left for Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the summer of 2013. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? This project has provided opportunities for training a postdoctoral research fellow (Guangsheng Chen) and a PhD graduate student (Bowen Zhang), involving model development, test, calibration, validation, model runs at site and regional scales, and model input data generation and model results analyses. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? We plan to do the following work: 1) Enhance the ability of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM) in simulating impacts of extreme climate events (drought, flooding, heat wave) on ecosystem structure and functiong 2) Statistically downscale climate projection data for driving the DLEM model 3) Use DLEM model to assess climate change impacts on forest and cropland productivity and water resources 4) Full accounting analysis of multiple grennhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) in terrestrial ecosystems.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
This project contributes to the Hatch/Multistate Funding Program goals in the following aspects: (1) carbon accounting for agricultural and forest ecosystems in the southern region, which further contributes to the emerging carbon-based market; (2) quantitatively assessing and predicting the impacts of climate, land use, and land management practice changes on productivity, carbon sequestration, and GHG emission in agricultural and forest ecosystems; (3) developing or improving LMPs to mitigate climate change impacts through reducing water use, GHG emissions and increasing carbon sequestration in agricultural and forest ecosystems; (4) providing information for policy makers and land managers to decide on the best land management options for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in the southern states. In the reporting period from January 1 2013 to September 30, 2013, we had completed the following work for the Hatch project: 1) Evaluate DLEM’s performance in simulating ecosystem responses to climate variability, land use and forest disturbances; 2) Apply the improved DLEM model to investigate how forest disturbances affected terrestrial carbon dynamics with the case study conducted in Alabama and Mississippi; 3) Synthesize observations, empirical data and modeling results to assess the magnitude, spatial and temporal patterns of net balance of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) in North America in the context of both natural and human perturbations; 4) Project the terrestrial carbon sequestration capability in Southeastern US with the DLEM model driven by future climate data sets. The historical assessment and future projection would provide plenty of insightful points for policy makers, land managers, and the public. In sum, with the modeling tool we developed, the impacts of climate change, land use and disturbances have been thoroughly examined and quantified during the past project years.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Chen, G., H. Tian, C. Huang, S. Prior, and S. Pan. 2013. Integrating a process-based ecosystem model with Landsat imagery to assess impacts of forest disturbance on terrestrial carbon dynamics: Case studies in Alabama and Mississippi. Journal of Geographic Research, DOI: 10.1002/jgrg.20098.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Xia Song, Hanqin Tian, Xiaofeng Xu, Dafeng Hui, Guangsheng Chen, Greg Sommers, Luke Marzen, and Mingliang Liu 2013. Projecting terrestrial carbon sequestration of the southeastern United States in the 21st century. Ecosphere 4:art88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES12-00398.1
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Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: In the past 1 year (Sep. 2011- Sep. 2012), we have done following work for the Hatch project: 1) Finished programming and testing the forest management submodel in DLEM which simulates impacts of intensive forest management (harvest, thinning, and fertilization) on productivity, carbon sequestration and trace greenhouse gas emissions. The forest age structure and wood products induced by land use change and forest management are dynamically tracked. The evaluations of this submodel against several study sites of the southern United States have also been done; 2) We generated disturbance-induced forest mortality data by using remotely sensed data (TM/ETM+ data). These data have a resolution of 30 m * 30 m, and covering the entire two states of Alabama (from 1984 to 2007) and Mississippi (1984-2007); 3) We have applied the improved DLEM model to simulate forest disturbance effects on carbon storage and fluxes in Alabama and Mississippi; 4) Collected the inventory data for pine plantation area and forest age from many data sources, and based on these, we generated spatial data (8 km resolution) for distributions of forest plantation and forest age classes for the period of 1970-2007; 5) Generated spatial and temporal data for land use change during 2011-2040 based on the projected county-level land use change data from USDA. In addition, we improved the historical land use data for the period of 1970-2012; 6) Future climate data from 2011-2050 were generated by downscaling the data from IPCC Fourth Assessment Report; 7) We collected field observational/experimental data for over 10 sites for different types of forests and crops under different land management practices (LMPs). In sum, the tasks 1, 2 and 3 were generally done during the past project year. PARTICIPANTS: Participants: Hanqin Tian (PI), School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA. Involving in leading the project discussions, data organization, dissemination and publications. Stephen S. Prior (Co-PI), USDA-ARS National Soil Dynamics Laboratory, 411 South Donahue Dr., Auburn, AL 36832, USA. Working on experiments and observations at his research sites and collecting data from other field observational/experimental sites. Shufen Pan (Co-PI), School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA. Working in processing and generating data using GIS and remote sensing techniques Guangsheng Chen (Postdoc), School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA. Working on model improvement, test, calibration, validation, model runs at site and regional scales, and involving in model input data generation and model results analyses. Bowen Zhang (PhD student), School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA. Helping on collecting and analyzing field observational and experimental data, model calibration, and model results analysis TARGET AUDIENCES: The general public, forest managers and farmers in the southern United States, governmental agencies such as USDA, DOE and EPA PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: The spatial resolution was modified from 4 km to 8 km since we found that 8 km spatial resolution is fine enough to address the objectives and goals in this proposed project and this change will speed up the accomplishment of this project.
Impacts
The newly developed data sets and ecosystem model have improved our estimation of carbon accounting for agricultural and forest ecosystems in the southern region, which further contributes to the emerging carbon-based market. The dynamic land ecosystem model enables us to assess and predict the impacts of climate, land use, and land management practice changes on productivity, carbon sequestration, and GHG emission in agricultural and forest ecosystems. Findings and results drawn from this project have been included in the recent US National Climate Assessment, which provides information for climate change policy makers to develop strategties for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in the southern states.
Publications
- Tian, HQ.,Chen, G., Zhang, C., Liu, M., Sun, G., Chappelka, A., Ren, W., Xu, X., Lu, C., Pan, S., Chen, H., Hui, D., McNulty, S., Lockaby, G. and Vance, E. (2012). Century scale response of ecosystem carbon storage and flux to multiple environmental changes in the southern United States, Ecosystems 15: 674-694.
- Chen, G., Tian, H., Zhang, C., Liu, M., Ren, W., Zhu, W., Chappelka, A., Prior, S.A., Lockaby, G. (2012). Drought in the southern United States over the last century: Variability and its impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and carbon storage. Climatic Change 114:379-397.
- Tian, HQ, C. Lu, G. Chen, B. Tao, S. Pan, SJ. Del Grosso, X. Xu, L. Bruhwiler, S.C. Wofsy, EA Kort and SA Prior (2012)Contemporary and projected biogenic fluxes of methane and nitrous oxide in terrestrial ecosystems of North America, Front Ecol Environ 10 (10): 528-536.
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