Progress 11/01/10 to 11/01/15
Outputs
Target Audience:Municipal/county/state government agencies and non-governmental organizations concerned about land use/land cover change and implications for land use planning, natural resource management and environmental protection Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?Through a technical report (in pdf format) and land use change computer animation, available through a website What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Using high-precision aerial photography, this project with the state has created one of the most comprehensive inventories of land composition of any state. The DEP New Jersey Land Use/Land Cover Change (NJLULCC) data set utilized for the analysis represents a detailed mapping of the land use and land cover as depicted in high resolution aerial photography that was acquired in the spring of 2012. The imagery was then classified and mapped providing a window into how the Garden State has developed over the past several decades (from 1986-1995-2002-2007-2012) and the subsequent consequences to its land base. It views land development patterns from several different angles providing a "report card" on urban growth and open space loss.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/14 to 09/30/15
Outputs
Target Audience:The focus on this year's efforts again has been coastal decision-makers. This includes municipal and county appointed officials from municipal emergency management, public health, building code, transportation, engineering, law and planning departments, state and federal organization agency officials, municipal elected representatives, environmental commission members and nonprofit/nongovernmental organizations interested in coastal land use planning, natural resource management and emergency management. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?We have presented the results of the project to a number of coastal decision-makers and worked with various partners on how to use the data to inform coastal land use planning and natural resource management. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?The unpublished "Modeling the Fate of New Jersey's Salt Marshes Under Future Sea Level Rise" report and accompanying GIS data/metadata have been made available on the njadapt.org website. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?We are presently working on summarizing/synthesizing the 2012 LU/LC Change Update in a report.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The focus of the past year has been to look at projected land use/land cover change related to possible future sea level rise and to examine the implications of these trends for New Jersey's land and water resources. Thus as part of our ongoing work to promote enhanced resiliency for New Jersey's coastal zone, we undertook to model those areas of New Jersey's coastal marsh (as mapped in 2012) that were vulnerable for conversion to either mud/peat/sand flats (unconsolidated shore) or open water under 1 to 3 feet of sea level rise (i.e., brackets the range of the expected rates of sea level rise expected by 2050). The NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) provided a potential marsh change GIS map based on SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model) using a 'moderate' level of vertical accretion (4 mm/yr over a 50 yr time frame). Using geospatial analysis software, we also modeled future marsh retreat zones for these same sea level rise scenarios. Those portions of New Jersey's coastal zone adjacent to coastal marsh that will be inundated under sea level rise and expected to convert to emergent marsh over time as part of the natural landward migration process were mapped and labeled as unimpeded marsh retreat zones. Areas where future tidal marsh retreat are blocked by developed uplands, other coastal protection structures or roads were mapped and labeled as impeded marsh retreat zones. Tidal marsh areas that are vulnerable to submergence and conversion to unconsolidated shore (i.e., mud/peat/sand flat) or open water under rising sea levels were also included as marsh conversion: unconsolidated shore and marsh conversion: open water, respectively. The projected future marsh maps were incorporated into the NJFloodMapper.org WEBGIS tool, as well as The Nature Conservancy's coastalresilience.org tool. Also we have been engaged in updating our long term land use/land cover (LU/LC) change analysis for the state of New Jersey. The NJDEP released the updated 2012 digital GIS data set for statewide (LU/LC). We have analyzed these data to examine trends in LU/LC change between 2007 and 2012 to quantify the spatial and temporal trends, and map the key hotspots of landscape change. Specific changes in forest, agriculture and wetlands were assessed.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
The Application of WebGIS Tools for Visualizing Coastal Flooding Vulnerability and Planning for Resiliency: The New Jersey Experience. ISPRS Int J of Geo-Information 3:408-429.
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Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14
Outputs
Target Audience: The focus on this year's efforts has been coastal decision-makers. This includes municipal and county appointed officials from municipal emergency management, public health, building code, transportation, engineering, law and planning departments, state and federal organization agency officials, municipal elected representatives, environmental commission members and nonprofit/nongovernmental organizations interested in coastal land use planning, natural resource management and emergency management. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? We have presented the results of the project to a number of coastal decision-makers and worked with various partners on how to use the data to inform coastal land use planning and natural resource management. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The unpublished report and accompanying GIS data/metadata have been made available on the njadpat.org website. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? When the State of New Jersey releases the 2012 land use/land cover update, we will compare the 2012 data vs. the 2007 data and will quantify the spatial and temporal trends, and map the key hotspots of landscape change.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The focus of the past year has been to look at projected land use/land cover change related to possible future sea level rise and to examine the implications of these trends for New Jersey's land and water resources. We undertook to model those areas of New Jersey’s coastal marsh (as mapped in 2007) that were vulnerable for conversion to either mud/peat/sand flats (unconsolidated shore) or open water under 1 to 3 feet of sea level rise (i.e., brackets the range of the expected rates of sea level rise expected by 2050). The NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) provided a potential marsh change GIS map based on SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model; Ehman, 2012; USFWS, 2011) using a ‘moderate’ level of vertical accretion (4 mm/yr over a 50 yr time frame). Using geospatial analysis software, we also modeled future marsh retreat zones for these same sea level rise scenarios. Those portions of New Jersey’s coastal zone adjacent to coastal marsh that will be inundated under sea level rise and expected to convert to emergent marsh over time as part of the natural landward migration process were mapped and labeled as unimpeded marsh retreat zones. Areas where future tidal marsh retreat are blocked by developed uplands, other coastal protection structures or roads were mapped and labeled as impeded marsh retreat zones. Tidal marsh areas that are vulnerable to submergence and conversion to unconsolidated shore (i.e., mud/peat/sand flat) or open water under rising sea levels were also included as marsh conversion: unconsolidated shore and marsh conversion: open water, respectively. The projected future marsh maps were incorporated into the NJFloodMapper.org WEBGIS tool.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: Land use decision-makers: government agency (federal, state, county, and municipal) and non-governmental organizations responsible for or interested in land use planning or natural resource management Changes/Problems: In the wake of SuperStorm Sandy in October 2012, I changed the focus of the year’s effort to investigate land use/land cover issues related to coastal resiliency and sea level rise, while still fitting within the larger rubric of NJ land use/land cover change. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? A workshop was hosted on March 22, 2013 at the JCNERR Education Center in Tuckerton, NJ to inform federal, state, local and non-profit coastal reserve managers of the results of coastal habitat mapping and sea level rise modeling and to share information on ongoing projects related to the consequences of SuperStorm Sandy and sea level rise on coastal habitats management and restoration. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Once the state of New Jersey Office of GIS leases the 2012 state-mapped land use/land cover digital GIS maps, I will use this to integrate with and develop an updated 2012 satellite-based land cover classification.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Object-oriented image analysis and high spatial resolution digital orthophotography (1 foot ground resolution cell) was used to create highly detailed map of land cover/habitat features for a 512-sq mi coastal study area. In terms of spatial detail, features as small as 1/10 acre were delineated and classified into one of 27 different land cover categories (focusing primarily on coastal marsh and barrier island landscapes) with an acceptable degree of accuracy. While the digital orthophotography for a high level of detail, inconsistency in radiometric response across individual photo frames made for a challenge in developing universally applicable spectral signatures for individual land cover classes. The semi-automated object-based land cover mapping process using Definiens eCognition software also requires high level of image analyst training and development. The classification rule-base developed for this project was documented for potential adoption and application elsewhere. The resulting land cover map is also made available for free download. The detailed land cover/habitat features GIS data was then classified into individual target species habitat maps based on detailed habitat description provided by EBFNWR staff wildlife biologists. Of the 14 species deemed suitable for the study, it was possible to translate written habitat descriptions to distribution maps for 11. Furthermore, these were successfully broken down to reflect specific habitat uses. The three remaining species had specific habitat requirements that could not be described by land cover alone. In such cases, supplemental data, where available, could be used to account for those specific requirements with relatively little data. What is important is that greater detail in land cover data allows for greater flexibility in mapping of habitat distribution. The projected water inundation maps were developed from LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) data using standard protocols developed by the NOAA Coastal Services Center (from whom we received advice and assistance). Assessing the potential impact of future sea level rise and coastal inundation proved more problematic. Many of the target species rely on coastal salt marshes and barrier island beaches that are already inundated on a regular daily to monthly basis (i.e. to MHHW). While a simple assessment of inundation of existing beach habitat was feasible and showed expected declines of >10% by 2050, a more nuanced long term view that includes changes in future beach configuration is needed but not deemed feasible within the scope of this project. To further examine longer term changes (i.e. out to 2050) in the coastal salt marsh habitats, we undertook a slightly more sophisticated modeling of future coastal marsh landscape distribution under projected sea level rise. We undertook to model those areas of New Jersey’s coastal marsh that were vulnerable for conversion to either mud/peat/sand flats (unconsolidated shore) or open water under 1 to 6 feet of sea level rise. The NOAA Coastal Services Center (CSC) provided a potential marsh change GIS map based on SLAMM (Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model) using a ‘moderate’ level of vertical accretion (4 mm/yr over a 50 yr time frame). Using geospatial analysis software, we also modeled future marsh retreat zones for these same sea level rise scenarios. Those portions of New Jersey’s coastal wetland complex that are free to retreat inland as part of the natural landward migration process were mapped and labeled as unimpeded marsh retreat zones. Areas where future tidal marsh retreat are blocked by developed uplands, other coastal protection structures or roads were mapped and labeled as impeded marsh retreat zones. Tidal marsh areas that are vulnerable to submergence and conversion to unconsolidated shore (i.e., mud/peat/sand flat) or open water under rising sea levels were also included as marsh conversion: unconsolidated shore and marsh conversion: open water, respectively. The projected future marsh maps were incorporated into the NJFloodMapper.org WEBGIS tool. Given that NOAA estimates that sea level could rise between 1 and 2.5 feet by 2050, our modeling results suggest that existing tidal salt marsh could decline by between 5 and 9%. While the predicted loss may be balanced by ‘new’ marsh (i.e., unimpeded marsh retreat zone) it is unclear on the vegetation composition and ecological value of this ‘new’ marsh in the short term. Our existing analysis was restricted to a 2050 projection; additional modeling would need to be undertaken to predict further into the future towards 2100, where sea level rise levels of between 2.5 and 7 feet are projected. Based on these results, it would be prudent for New Jersey to proactively sustain its coastal salt marshes by reducing marsh shoreline erosion, preserving future marsh landward retreat zones and enhancing vertical accretion rates.
Publications
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Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: USDA 2010 true-color digital orthophotography (1m spatial resolution) were used to create an updated urban land use change map data set. On-screen interpretation and 'heads-up' digitizing were used to map areas of land clearing and new urban development (2010 as compared to 2007) statewide. This work was initiated during Year 1 of the Project and completed during the Year 2 time period. The mapping was quality checked by a third party and the land use transitions (between 2007 and 2010) on a state-wide and county level quantified. This 2010 urban land use change data set will be used to aid the 2010 satellite-based land cover classification. The 2010 classification has not been completed. PARTICIPANTS: Richard Lathrop, PI. John Bognar, CRSSA GIS analyst assisted in the Landsat imagery acquisition. Joseph Steinfeldt, GIS technician, undertook the 2010 land use update interpretation and digitizing; Dan Merchant, Quality check. TARGET AUDIENCES: Still early in project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major changes. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The 2010 Urban land use change data set has been shared with various state partners.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: USDA 2010 true-color digital orthophotography (1m spatial resolution) were used to create an updated urban land use change map data set. On-screen interpretation and 'heads-up' digitizing were used to map areas of land clearing and new urban development (2010 as compared to 2007) statewide. This 2010 urban land use change data set will be used to aid the 2010 statellite-based land cover classification (described below). In preparation for undertaking the 2010 land Cover update, we acquired Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery for the following dates: November 29, 2009 (leaf-off), August 28, 2010 (leaf-on) and March 8, 2011 (leaf-off). The imagery were normalized to the baseline 1994/1995 imagery for further classification processing. Classification training sets were developed. The final classification has not been completed. PARTICIPANTS: Richard Lathrop, PI John Bognar, CRSSA GIS analyst assisted in the Landsat imagery acquisition. Joseph Steinfeldt, GIS technician, undertook the 2010 land use update interpretation and digitizing. TARGET AUDIENCES: Still early in project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major changes.
Impacts
The 2010 Urban land use change data set was incorporated into CRSSA New Jersey land use change animation which traces the change in NJ urban and other land uses back to the 1970's. This animation has been used in several public talks.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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