Progress 09/01/10 to 08/31/14
Outputs
Target Audience: The target audience was primarily researchers, educators, students,state-local agency planners and managers, andindustryin the field of resilience, vulnerability, sustainability, hazards, and emergency planning. We have published scientific papers in journals in this broad field, supervised students in their thesisand dissertation research,presented our workat international, national, and regionalmeetings, and developed a web application. The complete list of publication outlets, theses and dissertations,and conferences attendedis included in theProductsand Other Products sections. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? This project provides various opportunites for training and professional development. The experience gained from conducting this project has been helpful for the post-doctoral research associates and students in developing and conducting new projects. Change in Action Results from this research has led to the awareness of the need to develop resilience metrics that can be validated by empirical data as well as enable statistical inference to other places and time periods for comparative assessment and monitoring. The development of the RIM model provides a sound framework to conduct resilience assessment that includes these two important properties. A number of new applications of the RIM model are in progress, including the application of the RIM model to analyze the resiliency of the Netherlands, the Caribbean region, and coastal Louisiana at the census block level. A study on using the RIM model to predict the resiliency of New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy is also in progress. The same framework can be applied to different types of disasters, and two new studies of applying the RIM model are in progress. These include a study of the drought hazards in the southwest U.S. and a study of the earthquake resilience in China. Through continuous refinement of the model, the resultant model should serve as a useful, objective, standardized tool for resilience or sustainability assessment of the coastal communities around the world. Change in Conditions This project supports a post-doctoral research associate and six graduate students. All of them have gained substantial experience in research in resilience and sustainability, which is a cutting-edge research topic. In addition to training in data analysis, statistical modeling, and GIS analysis, the students and post-doc fellows are exposed to the issue of model sensitivity, statistical validation, and the issue of scale and uncertainty when dealing with empirical data. Further, students who are engaged in this project also learnt the intricacy of resilience assessment and the important interactions between government, policies, and community engagement. All project personnel participated in research, manuscripts writing, and presentations and outreach at professional meetings. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results have been disseminated primarily through publications, presentations in professional meetings, meetings with planners and commuity stakeholders, classroom instructions, anda web application module. The complete list of publication outlets, theses and dissertations,and conferences attendedare included in the Products and Other Products section. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? This is the final report.
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The Impact of the Project There is a critical need to devise a quantifiable resilience index that can truly capture the causes and consequences regarding resilience and vulnerability, so that we can use it as a tool for hazard mitigation and disaster recovery, especially for rural communities. This project produces a newmathematical modelto measure community resilience. The Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model considers resilience a broader concept that includes aspects of both vulnerability and adaptive capacity over time. The method utilizes statistical procedures and actual damage data to derive and validate the resilience index. The RIM model is theoretically sound. It overcomes two mainproblems of existing measurement methods by enabling validation and statistical inference. The model was empirically testedusing all 534 counties of the five Gulf of Mexico states – Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. With a classification accuracy of 76.5%, the model can predict the resiliency of a county based on 9 variables. The 9 variables are: average number of people per household, value of farm products sold per square mile, median income, median rent, median value of owner-occupied housing, percent of people that rents, percent of mobile home, housing density, and mean elevation. In general, urban counties were found to have higher resilience to coastal hazards than rural counties, whereas coastal counties were of higher resilience than non-coastal counties. Further, the study of community resilience assessment at two geographical scales, county vs. zip code levels, in Louisiana supports the utility of the RIM model in assessing resilience at multiple geographic scales. The approach can be applied to derive resilience indices for other study areas or different types of hazard across different spatial and temporal scales. Change in Knowledge Objective One: To empirically develop a model to measure community resilience along the Gulf of Mexico. In Year 2, we reported the development of the first method for measuring community resilience. The results have been published (Reams et al., 2012). While this first method is practical and an improvement over other existing methods, the method still lacks validation and inferential ability. The findings add to our knowledge that it is critical to have a new method that includes these two properties. In Year 2, we reported on the study of the extent to which 257 cities in the U.S. have been successful in achieving the climate planning initiatives and identified factors that may explain variation in the performance of these cities. The results have been published in Clinton et al (2012). The findings yield insight into the conditions under which cities engaged in climate planning are more likely to succeed, which have implications for planning for community resilience. In Year 3, we applied a community resilience framework to examine household emergency planning and exposure-reducing behavior among residents of Louisiana’s industrial corridor. The results have been published in Journal of Emergency Management (Reams et al., 2013). The findings imply that while factors associated with exposure and vulnerability to hazards are difficult to change, knowledge of risk-reducing strategies and confidence in one’s abilities to reduce exposure risks can be improved through well-designed public education efforts. In Year 3, we developed the second method to assess vulnerability and adaptive capacity to coastal hazards, and the results have been published in Journal of Coastal Research (Lam et al., 2014). The vulnerability index was derived using the IPCC definition and it is a weighted average of a number of variables. However, instead of assigning the weights of the variables in an arbitrary manner, we validated the weights through regression analysis with the actual storm damage data. We applied the method to assess the vulnerability of 25 Caribbean countries. The indices ranged from 0.31 to 0.77, with small island countries found to be more vulnerable than large countries. The findings add to our knowledge that although the hurricane exposure was a key variable contributing to high vulnerability, low adaptive capacity in the form of low socioeconomic status had a more important role in increasing vulnerability. In Year 3, we developed a new method, called the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model, to measure community resilience. The RIM model considers resilience a broader concept that includes aspects of both vulnerability and adaptive capacity over time. The RIM model uses three dimensions (exposure, damage, and recovery indicators) to denote two relationships (vulnerability and adaptability), and employs both K-means clustering and discriminant analysis to derive the resilience rankings, thus enabling validation and inference. We applied the RIM model to quantify resilience to climate-related hazards for the same 52 U.S. counties along the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The results yielded a classification accuracy of 94.2% with 28 predictor variables. The approach is theoretically sound and promising. The same framework can be applied to derive resilience indices for other study areas at different spatial and temporal scales. The results of this research activity have been summarized in a manuscript which is currently under review (Lam, Reams, Li K., Li C., Mata, 2014). Objective Two: To compare the resilience indices between urban and rural communities, and between coastal and non-coastal communities. 6. In Year 3, we extended the analysis to all 534 counties of the five Gulf states. In this data set, there were 204 metropolitan, 98 micropolitan, and 226 rural counties. Considering only the counties bordering the Gulf of Mexico as coastal counties, there were 51 coastal and 480 non-coastal counties. After a series of testing through the dual application of K-means clustering and stepwise discriminant analysis, the RIM model identified 9 variables to characterize the four resilience groups with an accuracy of 76.5%. The results show that 66 of 204 (32.3%) metropolitan counties were classified as the highest resilience group, whereas only 5.1% (5 out of 98) micropolitan counties and 2.7% (6 out of 226) rural counties belonged to the highest group. Further, 22% (11 out of 51) coastal counties were assessed to have the highest resilience, compared to a 13.8% (66 out of 480) for non-coastal counties. The findings imply that there is a great need to increase the resilience of rural communities. A manuscript summarizing the results is in preparation. Objective Three: To apply the model using the data at two different spatial scales, county and zip code levels, so that we can better understand the uncertainties of the index values due to scale. 7. We examined the resilience of coastal communities in Louisiana from 2000 to 2010 through application of the RIM model at two scales, the county and zip-code levels. For the parish-level analysis, the data set included 64 parishes and the same 28 variables used in the pilot study. For the zip code-level analysis, 501 Zip Code Tabulation Areas were used, but only 19 variables were available at this level. Discriminant analysis of the parish-level data yielded a 93.8% classification accuracy, and a 80.2% accuracy for the zip code analysis. Both analyses indicate that affluence and higher socioeconomic status among residents are associated with greater resilience. These findings support the utility of the RIM model applied at multiple geographic scales to help identify underlying processes leading to community resilience to large-scale natural disturbances. The results of this analysis have been summarized in a master thesis (Li C., 2012) and a manuscript for journal publication is in preparation.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Reams MA, Lam NSN, Baker A. 2012. Measuring capacity for resilience among coastal counties of the U.S. Northern Gulf of Mexico Region. American Journal of Climate Change 1:194-204.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Reams MA, Clinton KW, Lam NSN. 2012. Achievement of climate planning objectives among U.S. member cities of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives. Low Carbon Economy 3:137-143.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Reams MA, Lam NSN, Cale TM, Hinton CM. 2013. Applying a community resilience framework to examine household emergency planning and exposure-reducing behavior among residents of Louisianas industrial corridor. Journal of Emergency Management 11(2): 108-120.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lam NSN, Arenas H, Brito P, Liu KB. 2014. Assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to coastal hazards in the Caribbean region. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue 66, 473-478.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lam NSN, Reams MA, Li K, Li C, Mata L. 2014. Measuring community resilience to coastal hazards along the Northern Gulf of Mexico.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lam NSN, Qiang Y, Arenas H, Brito P, Liu KB. 2014. Mapping and assessing coastal resilience in the Caribbean region.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Li X, Lam NSN, Qiang Y, Li K, Yin L, Liu S, Zheng W. 2014. Measuring county resilience after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Li K, Lam NSN, Qiang Y, Zou L, Cai H. 2014. A cyber-infrastructure for community resilience assessment and visualization.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Li C. 2013. Community Resilience to Coastal Hazards: An Analysis of Two Geographical Scales in Louisiana. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Mata L. 2013. An Analysis of the Prevalence of the West Nile Virus in Relation to Health Resilience Along the Gulf of Mexico. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Cale T, Reams M. 2013. Influences on adoption of greenhouse gas reduction targets among US States, 1998-2008. Open Journal of Political Science, 3, 39-43. doi: 10.4236/ojps.2013.31006.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2011
Citation:
Li, K, LaRock D, Lam NSN, Reams M. 2011. Temporal changes of coastal community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico Region. Abstracts, the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Seattle. April 15, 2011.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2011
Citation:
LaRock D, Lam NSN, Braud D. 2011. Temporal changes in quality of life and environment in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Abstracts, the 2010 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Seattle. April 15, 2011.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Paille B. 2012. Comprehensive Planning and Resilience: A study of Louisiana Parishes after Hurricane Katrina. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Clinton K. 2012. Measuring City Commitment to Climate Change Mitigation. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Hinton C. 2012. Influences on Behavior Adaptations to Reduce Exposures to Environmental Hazards among Residents of Louisiana's Upper Industrial Corridor. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Type:
Theses/Dissertations
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Golden P. 2013. An Analysis of the Allocation of FEMA Public Assistance Funds Along the U.S. Gulf Coast Following Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Wang F, Lam NSN, Reams M, Kulkarni A, Li K. 2012. A self-organization-based approach for measuring community resilience. Abstracts, the 2012 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), New York. February 24, 2012.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Lam NSN, Reams M, Li K, Mata L, Li C. 2012. On community resilience. Paper presented at the 28th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS Workshop, Baton Rouge, April 24, 2012.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Li K, Lam NSN, Reams M. 2012. Temporal changes of coastal community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico region. Student poster competition in the 28th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS Workshop, Baton Rouge, April 24-25, 2012. (The poster won the first prize).
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Lam NSN, Li K, Wang F, Reams M, Baker A, LaRock D. 2012. Bridging geospatial analysis and adaptive management: An approach to resilience measurement. Paper presented at the University Consortium for Geographic Information Science 2012 Symposium. Washington DC, May 31, 2012.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Lam NSN, Reams M, Li K, Wang F, LaRock D, Baker A. 2012. On community resilience measurement: Bridging geospatial analysis and adaptive management. Paper presented at the Geoinformatics 2012 conference, Hong Kong, June 16, 2012.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Li C, Lam NSN, Reams M, Mata L. 2013. Coastal community resilience in Louisiana, 1995-2010. Abstracts, the 2013 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Los Angeles. April 10, 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Paille B, Reams M, Lam NSN, Carney J. 2014. Planning and the pursuit of resilience in post-Katrina Louisiana: An examination of parish-level attitudes and actions. Paper presented at the 2014 State of the Coast Conference, New Orleans, March 18-20.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Goote E, Reams M, Lam NSN, Wilkins J, Daigle M, Land L, Sattler M, Atlinay Z. 2014. Influences on household and community-level mitigation efforts and adaptations to coastal hazards in Louisiana. Paper presented at the 2014 State of the Coast Conference, New Orleans, March 18-20.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Reams M, Lam NSN, DeFrank L. 2014. Influences on community resilience: An examination of population return to New Orleans post-Katrina. Paper presented at the 2014 State of the Coast Conference, New Orleans, March 18-20.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Reams M, Lam NSN, Kirby R, Funder D. 2014. Assessing coastal community resilience in Louisiana and the Netherlands: conceptual and methodological challenges. Paper presented at the 2014 State of the Coast Conference, New Orleans, March 18-20.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Cai H, Lam NSN, Zou L. 2014. Predicting the resiliency of the East Coast counties after Hurricane Sandy. Student Poster Competition, the 30th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS Workshop, New Orleans, May 12-14.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Cai H, Lam NSN, Zou L. 2014. Predicting the resiliency of the east coast counties after Hurricane Sandy. Abstracts, the 2014 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Tampa. April 9, 2014.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lam NSN, Arenas H, Brito P, Liu KB. 2014. Assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity to coastal hazards in the Caribbean region. Paper presented at the 2014 International Coastal Symposium, Durban, South Africa, April 13-16.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Zou L, Lam NSN, Cai H. 2014. Assessment of community resilience to drought hazards in Texas and Louisiana. Student Poster Competition, the 30th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS Workshop, New Orleans, May 12-14.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Lam NSN. 2013. On measuring vulnerability, resilience, and sustainability. Keynote Speaker, Flood Aware Conference, The Netherlands. January 31, 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Lam NSN. 2013. Measuring coastal vulnerability, resilience, and sustainability. Workshop on Tropical Cyclones. La Paz, Mexico. March 18-21, 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Lam NSN. 2013. Vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and coupled natural-human systems: A geospatial research agenda. Lecture presented at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. June 20, 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Lam NSN. 2013. Community resilience and environmental assessment. Symposium on Response, Recovery & Resilience, LSU, Jan 29, 2013.
- Type:
Conference Papers and Presentations
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lam NSN, Reams M, Fundter D, De Bruin H. 2014. Modeling resilience: An international comparison. Panel presentation at the 2014 Natural Hazards Workshop, Colorado, June 24.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Lam NSN. 2012. From disease to disaster: geospatial analysis for environmental decision making. John Borchert Lecturer, University of Minnesota. November 14, 2012.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2014
Citation:
Lam NSN. 2014. Vulnerability, resilience, sustainability, and coupled natural-human systems: A geospatial research agenda. C.P. Lo Lecturer, University of Georgia. October 10, 2014.
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Progress 09/01/11 to 08/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: In Year 2, Activities include: (1) Continued in updating data which were not available in Year 1, especially the census variables for 2010 and updated hazards data from 1995-2010. (2) Applied the new conceptual model, called Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model, to analyze the resiliency of the 534 counties using updated hazard data and census data of 2010. (3) Experimented with another approach, the self-organization-based measurement approach, to measuring community resilience to coastal hazards for all the 534 counties. (4) Prepared 5 manuscripts for publications, with three accepted, one in revision, and one in review. Major findings are summarized under the Impacts Section. Events: (1) Presented a paper and chaired a session on community resilience at the Geoinformatics 2012 Conference in Hong Kong, June 2012. (2) Presented a paper on bridging geospatial analysis and adaptive management at the 2012 University Consortium on Geographic Information Science (UCGIS) Symposium, Washington DC, May 2012. (3) Presented a paper on community resilience measurement at the 28th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS workship, April 2012. (4) Presented a student-led poster on temporal changes of coastal community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico region at the 28th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS workship, April 2012. (The student won the first prize award). (5) Presented a paper on using a self-organization approach to measure community resilience at the 2012 Annual Meetings of the Association of American Geographers held at New York, Feb. 2012. Services: (1) Mentored a number of students in completing four additional theses (listed under the Publications section), the topics of which are closely related to this project. (2) Re-advertised the post-docotoral research associate position due to departure of Dr. Fei Wang. The post-doc research associate has developed two new approaches to measuring community resilience. The results will be evaluated and compared in Year 3. (3) Continued to present lectures in our four regular classes, including "Design of Environmental Management Systems", "Spatial Modeling of Environmental Data", "Environmental Planning and Management", and "Environmental Policy Analysis". In addition, lectures on resilience were also delivered in another class "Environmental Conflict Resolution". Products: (1) Compiled a digital zip-code boundary file that contains a total of 4,361 zip-code areas in the five states (Texas: 1866, Louisiana: 518, Mississippi: 425, Alabama: 625, Florida: 927). Corresponding variables at the county level will be collected or interpolated at the zip-code level in Year 3. (2) Created a geographic information system (GIS) that links the attribute data files and the geographic boundary files for analysis and mapping. The GIS is built using ArcGIS and will be updated continuously and populated with information as the project continues. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals: Nina Lam: Principal Investigator Margaret Reams: Co-Principal Investigator Training and professional development: Fei Wang: Post-doctoral fellow Lilly Mata, Chi Li, Camille Golden, Amit Kulkarni: Graduate Students TARGET AUDIENCES: In addition to teaching, publications, and presentations in professional meetings and workshops, we will create a website to communicate our findings at the end of our project. Our objective is to make available to planners, policy makers, residents and other interested individuals and groups an empirical assessment tool and access to the components of a theoretical framework to better understand the key sources of and possible limitations to long-term community resilience. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major changes in approach are expected.
Impacts
Change in Knowledge: (1) From the article "Measuring capacity for resilience among coastal counties of the U.S. Northern Gulf of Mexico region" to be published in the American Journal of Climate Change: In this study we selected indicators of key theoretical concepts from the social-ecological resilience literature, aggregated those indicators into a resilience-capacity index, and calculated an index score for each of the 52 coastal counties of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. We used factor analysis to combine 43 variables measuring demographics, social capital, economic resources, local government actions, and environmental conditions within the counties. The counties identified as having the highest resilience capacities included the suburban areas near New Orleans, Louisiana and Tampa, Florida, and the growing beach-tourist communities of Alabama and central Florida. By aggregating a range of important contextual variables into a single index, the study demonstrates another useful approach for the more systematic examination and comparison of exposure, vulnerability and capacity for resilience among coastal communities. (2) From the article "Achievement of climate planning objectives among U.S. member cities of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) to be published in Low Carbon Economy: This study examines the extent to which 257 member cities in the U.S. have been successful in achieving the climate planning initiatives and identifies factors that may explain variation in the performance of member cities. Multiple regression results indicate that length of membership is the strongest predictor of milestone attainment, regardless of local socioeconomic conditions, ideological and political orientations of residents, or other climate-related initiatives within the state. The findings suggest that member cities facing more "climate stress" are making slower progress. The findings yield insight into the conditions under which cities engaged in climate planning are more likely to succeed, which has implications for planning for community resilience. Change in actions: The factor analysis weighted average approach as documented in Article 1 will be compared with the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) approach for measuring resilience for all 534 counties. Refinements of the approach such as testing with selected sets of the indicator variables will be made. Through continuous refinement of the model, the resultant model should serve as a useful, objective, standardized tool for resilience or sustainability assessment of the coastal communities around the world. Change in conditions: This project supports a post-doctoral research associate and three graduate students. All of them have gained substantial experience in research in resilience and sustainability, which is a cutting-edge research topic. In addition to training in data analysis, statistical modeling, and GIS analysis as described in Year 1 report, the students and post-doc fellow are exposed to the issue of model sensitivity, statistical validation, and the issue of scale and uncertainty when dealing with empirical data.
Publications
- Journal Articles: Reams MA, Lam NSN, Baker A. 2012 Measuring capacity for resilience among coastal counties of the U.S. Northern Gulf of Mexico Region. American Journal of Climate Change (forthcoming). Reams MA, Clinton K, Lam NSN. 2012 Achievement of climate planning objectives among U.S. member cities of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI). Low Carbon Economy (forthcoming).
- Cale TM, Reams MA. 2012 Influences on adoption of greenhouse gas reduction targets among U.S. States, 1998-2008. Open Journal of Political Science (forthcoming).
- Reams MA, Lam NSN, Cale TM, Hinton CM. 2012 Applying a community resilience framework to examine household emergency planning and exposure-reducing behavior among residents of Louisiana's industrial corridor. Journal of Emergency Management (revise and resubmit).
- Lam NSN, Arenas H, Liu KB, Brito PL, Reams MA. 2012 Assessing the coastal population at risk to sea level rise in the Caribbean Region. Estuaries and Coasts (in review).
- Abstracts: Lam NSN, Reams M, Li K, Wang F, LaRock D, Baker A. 2012. On community resilience measurement: Bridging geospatial analysis and adaptive management. Paper presented at the Geoinformatics 2012 conference, Hong Kong, June 16, 2012.
- Lam NSN, Li K, Wang F, Reams M, Baker A, LaRock D. 2012. Bridging geospatial analysis and adaptive management: An approach to resilience measurement. Paper presented at the University Consortium for Geographic Information Science 2012 Symposium. Washington DC, May 31, 2012.
- Li K, Lam NSN, Reams M. 2012. Temporal changes of coastal community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico region. Student poster competition in the 28th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS Workshop, Baton Rouge, April 24-25, 2012. (The poster won the first prize).
- Lam NSN, Reams M, Li K, Mata L, Li C. 2012. On community resilience. Paper presented at the 28th Louisiana Remote Sensing and GIS Workshop, Baton Rouge, April 24, 2012.
- Wang F, Lam NSN, Reams M, Kulkarni A, Li K. 2012. A self-organization-based approach for measuring community resilience. Abstracts, the 2012 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), New York. February 24, 2012.
- Theses: Toscano B. 2011. Social Vulnerability in Louisiana s Upper Industrial Corridor.... Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Paille B. 2012. Regional Planning and Resilience: A Study of Louisiana Communities. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Clinton K. 2012. Measuring City Commitment to Climate Change Mitigation. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
- Hinton C. 2012. Influences on Behavior Adpatations to Reduce Exposures to Environmental Hazards among Residents of Louisiana s upper industrial corridor. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University.
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Progress 09/01/10 to 08/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The objectives of this project are three-fold: (1) To empirically develop a model to measure community resilience index of the five states along the Gulf of Mexico; (2) To compare the resilience indices between urban and rural communities, and between coastal and non-coastal communities, so that we can better understand the major attributes that make a rural community more or less resilient; (3) To apply the model using the data at two different spatial scales, county and zip code levels, so that we can better understand the uncertainties of the index values due to scale. Activities: (1) Conducted literature research on community resilience measurement approaches and methods (2) Developed a new community resilience measurement approach that would take into account of both concepts of vulnerablity and adaptability. The measurement approach emphasizes validation and inference, through a combined K-means cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. (3) Explored new approaches to measuring community resilience, which includes measuring the self-organization ability and the adaptablity. Events: (1) Attended the Delta 2010 conference in New Orleans in October 2010; to obtain the most updated information on delta community resilience studies. (2) Presented three papers with students at the 2011 Annual Meetings of the Association of American Geographers held at Washington, DC in April 2011. Services: (1) Mentored a number of students in completing one dissertation and two theses (listed under the Pulications section), the topics of which are closely related to this project. (2) Advertised and hired a post-docotoral research associate to assist in the project. The post-doc research associate developed two new approaches to measuring community resilience, and two manuscripts summarizing the results are in preparation. (3) Presented lectures in our four regular classes, including "Design of Environmental Management Systems", "Spatial Modeling of Environmental Data", "Environmental Planning and Management", and "Environmental Policy Analysis". Products: (1) Compiled a data set that contains census, economic, environmental, and hazard data of all the counties of the five Gulf Coast states: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. The total number of counties is 534, and the number of variables is over 100. The time span for the data is largely from 1960-2008, as most of the 2010 census data is not yet available. In year 2, an effort will be made to update the data to the most recent time period. (2) Compiled a digital county boundary file for all the 534 counties in the study area. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals: Nina Lam: Principal Investigator Margaret Reams: Co-Principal Investigator Training and professional development: Fei Wang: Post-doctoral fellow Lilly Mata, Chi Li: Graduate Students TARGET AUDIENCES: In addition to teaching, publications, and presentations in professional meetings and workshops, we will create a website to communicate our findings at the end of our project. Our objective is to make available to planners, policy makers, residents and other interested individuals and groups an empirical assessment tool and access to the components of a theoretical framework to better understand the key sources of and possible limitations to long-term community resilience. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No major changes in approach are expected.
Impacts
Change in Knowledge: Despite abundant literature in social-ecological resilience, vulnerability, and hazards and risk assessment, there is yet a convincing approach to quantifying and measuring community resilience. Our initial research findings show that this fundamental problem is due partly to the many different definitions of resilience and partly to the lack of empirical validation and evidence for the indices derived. Based on extensive literature research and repeated empirical testing, we propose a new resilience measurement framework that incorporates both concepts of vulnerability and adaptability. We demonstrate the new conceptual framework and approach to quantifying resilience to climate-related hazards using a combined K-means cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. The new approach, called the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) Model, was applied to derive the resilience rankings of 52 coastal counties along the Gulf of Mexico in the United States, and yielded a high validation accuracy of 90% with 21 predictor variables. Thus, the new method is very promising. A manuscript documenting the method is in preparation. Change in actions: This new approach should be conceptually easier to understand, and validation and inference to other counties or places are possible. In Year 2, we will test the model on the 534 counties using updated data. Refinements of the approach such as applications to different study areas and more testing of the indicator variables will be made. Through continuous refinement of the model, the resultant model should serve as a useful, objective, standardized tool for resilience or sustainability assessment of the coastal communities around the world. Change in conditions: This project supports a post-doctoral research associate and two graduate students. All of them have gained substantial experience in research in resilience and sustainability, which is a cutting-edge research topic. Moreover, they are further trained in large-scale data collection, checking data errors and validating data accuracies, integrating disparate data sources into a geographic information system (GIS), mapping, and statistical analysis. The post-doctoral research associate is also able to develop fresh approaches to the resilience measurement problem.
Publications
- Abstracts: Li, K, LaRock D, Lam NSN, Reams M. 2011. Temporal changes of coastal community resilience in the Gulf of Mexico Region. Abstracts, the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Seattle. April 15, 2011. LaRock D, Lam NSN, Braud D. 2011. Temporal changes in quality of life and environment in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Abstracts, the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Seattle. April 15, 2011. Arenas H, Lam NSN. 2011. Spatio-temporal dynamics of the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Abstracts, the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers (CD-ROM), Seattle. April 15, 2011.
- Dissertations and Theses: Li K. 2011. Temporal Changes of Coastal Community Resilience in the Gulf of Mexico Region. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University. LaRock D. 2011. Temporal Changes in Quality of Life and Environment in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Master Thesis, Department of Environmental Sciences, Louisiana State University. Arenas H. 2011. An Agent-Based Simulation Model for Business Reopenings in New Orleans Post Hurricane Katrina. Doctoral Dissertation, Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University.
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