CAUSES OF, IMPACTS OF, AND RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0221676
• Project Start Date: Apr 1, 2010
• Project End Date: Mar 31, 2015
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Project Director
Robock, AL.

Recipient Organization
RUTGERS, THE STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW JERSEY
3 RUTGERS PLZA
NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08901-8559

Performing Department
Environmental Sciences

Non Technical Summary
The mission of the New Jersey Agricultural Experiment Station is "To enhance the vitality, health, sustainability and overall quality of life in New Jersey by developing and delivering practical, effective solutions to current and future challenges to agriculture; fisheries; food; natural resources; environments; public health; and economic, community, and youth development." The work proposed here will address the issue of climate change, which will certainly affect the quality of life in New Jersey, including the environment, agriculture, and water resources. It will address the causes of climate change, potential geoengineering responses to climate change, and how climate change will impact us. The work will be related to agriculture, in that it will include the production of future scenarios of climate change that can be used to plan for different agricultural practices, and will consider geoengineering techniques to control the climate, which will affect agriculture. In fact, preliminary results show that geoengineering may reduce agricultural output in Asia, and this is one of negative aspects that will need to be considered when deciding whether to implement it. The studies of soil moisture and irrigation will have implications in many locations, including New Jersey. The high quality, problem-solving research that will result from this project will be presented at scientific conferences, published in refereed journals and in popular articles for the public, and will be disseminated via Rutgers websites. Expected Impact: Given the global nature of the proposed research, it is difficult to say specifically how it will affect specific stakeholders, or even who the stakeholders are. The most important research is on nuclear winter, as climate changes induced by the use of nuclear weapons, on a global or even localized scale, are the greatest threat to the planet. The plan is for our message to result in steps toward global nuclear disarmament, and this will benefit all life on Earth. The geoengineering work will allow policymakers to make better informed decisions about appropriate and effective responses to global warming. The work on volcanic eruptions will allow better predictions of the climate response to future eruptions. The other work will allow a better understanding of how the climate system works, and how water resources will change with global warming, affecting stakeholders in many different locations.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
132	0430	2070	100%

Knowledge Area
132 - Weather and Climate;

Subject Of Investigation
0430 - Climate;

Field Of Science
2070 - Meteorology and climatology;

Keywords

geoengineering

nuclear winter

volcanic eruptions

soil moisture

remote sensing

Goals / Objectives
Objectives: The project will address the following scientific questions: Nuclear winter 1) How much climate change could be produced by the smoke from a nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia How much would the current arsenals have to be reduced to prevent the possibility of a catastrophic nuclear winter If the weapons continue to exist, they can be used, and the only way to prevent nuclear winter is to destroy the weapons. This work will give such guidance to the governments of Russia and the U.S. 2) How much climate change would result from a nuclear war between new nuclear states, such as India and Pakistan Will such possibilities help to slow the spread of nuclear weapons Volcanic eruptions 3) How large a volcanic eruption would be needed to have a measurable climatic response What is the difference between tropical and high latitude eruptions How important is the month of injection for high latitude eruptions 4) What are the mechanisms that could cause a major tropical eruption to produce a multi-century response in the Arctic How can the original cooling persist through sea ice and other feedbacks Geoengineering 5) Once injected into the stratosphere, how will different aerosols evolve physically, how will they be transported by the winds, and how will they be removed from the atmosphere Whether injected as gaseous precursors, such as SO2, or as aerosols directly, such as soot or soil, how will the size distribution and optical properties of the aerosols evolve How will the aerosols be transported, including consideration of changing atmospheric circulation in response to their interactions with the atmosphere, and where and when will they be eventually removed 6) What will be the climate response to proposed aerosol injections and to proposed solar shading In a world with increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases and changing tropospheric aerosols, how will anthropogenic stratospheric aerosols or solar shading interact to produce climate changes How will the patterns of temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and storm frequency change 7) What are the policy and ethical considerations related to geoengineering Considering the potential resulting climate changes, including those perceived as beneficial or detrimental (differently by different people, and in different locations), should geoengineering be implemented What are the equity, political, and ethical aspects of such implementation, and how can they be addressed Remote sensing of soil moisture 8) How well can L-band satellite remote sensing observe surface soil moisture While short field campaigns with surface and airplane-mounted L-band radiometers have demonstrated the feasibility of soil moisture remote sensing, we will evaluate a complete global retrieval system in a variety of locations and surface types, throughout the season. 9) How much improvement in simulation of root-zone soil moisture using land surface data assimilation schemes will be produced by incorporating remotely sensed data

Project Methods
The research will be conducted with data analysis and computer modeling. For objectives 1-6, we will continue to conduct atmosphere-ocean general circulation modeling with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE and its successors. For objectives 3 and 4, we will also use observations of the response to past volcanic eruptions as well as study those that occur during the project period. For objective 7, we will continue to collaborate with Rutgers Prof. Martin Bunzl, a philosopher. For objective 8, we will update our soil moisture observations, at http://climate.envsci.rutgers. edu/soil_moisture, and use them to evaluate the retrieved values from the satellites. For objective 9, we will collaborate with scientists at NASA GSFC and the ECMWF using their data assimilation models. For objectives 10 and 11 we will use the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Research and Forecasting model to conduct simulations of U.S. summer climate with and without irrigation.

Progress 04/01/10 to 03/31/15

Outputs
Target Audience:Research Community Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?Three graduate students completed their Ph.D.s, Mira Berdahl, Lili Xia, and Thomas Collow, and one graduate student continues to work on his Ph.D., Corey Gabriel. Dr. Lili Xia is now working with me as a postdoc. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?By publishing journal articles and giving talks to the public and in conferences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? A number of GeoMIP studies have been completed, examining the potential climate response to stratospheric geoengineering, and proposing new experiments involving marine cloud brightening. We have studied the climate and agricultural response to a limited nuclear war using a new, more detailed climate model. We have examined the impact of soil moisture on precipitation in the Great Plains. We have studied the ocean response to volcanic eruptions.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2015 Citation: Xia, Lili, Alan Robock, Michael Mills, Andrea Stenke, and Ira Helfand, 2015: Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war. Earths Future, 3, 37-48, doi:10.1002/2014EF000283.

Progress 10/01/13 to 09/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Research Community Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Three graduate students completed their Ph.D.s, Mira Berdahl, Lili Xia, and Thomas Collow, and one graduate student continues to work on his Ph.D., Corey Gabriel. Dr. Lili Xia is now working with me as a postdoc. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? By publishing journal articles and giving talks to the public and in conferences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Keep up the same work.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? A number of GeoMIP studies have been completed, examining the potential climate response to stratospheric geoengineering, and proposing new experiments involving marine cloud brightening. We have studied the climate response to a limited nuclear war using a new, more detailed climate model. We have examined the impact of soil moisture on precipitation in the Great Plains. We have studied the ocean response to volcanic eruptions.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Tilmes, Simone, John Fasullo, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Daniel R. Marsh, Michael Mills, Kari Alterskj�r, Helene Muri, J�n E. Kristj�nsson, Olivier Boucher, Michael Schulz, Jason N. S. Cole, Charles L. Curry, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Peter J. Irvine, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Diana B. Karam, Ben Kravitz, Philip J. Rasch, Balwinder Singh, Jin-Ho Yoon, Ulrike Niemeier, Hauke Schmidt, Alan Robock, Shuting Yang, and Shingo Watanabe, 2013: The hydrological impact of geoengineering in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 11,036-11,058, doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50868.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Berdahl, Mira, and Alan Robock, 2013: Northern Hemispheric cryosphere response to volcanic eruptions in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project 3 last millennium simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 12,359-12,370, doi:10.1002/2013JD019914.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kravitz, Ben, Piers M. Forster, Andy Jones, Alan Robock, Kari Alterskj�r, Olivier Boucher, Annabel K. L. Jenkins, Hannele Korhonen, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Antti-Ilari Partanen, Philip J. Rasch, Hailong Wang, and Shingo Watanabe, 2013: Sea spray geoengineering experiments in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP): Experimental design and preliminary results. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 11,175-11,186, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50856.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, Piers M. Forster, Jim M. Haywood, Mark G. Lawrence, and Hauke Schmidt, 2013: An overview of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 13,103-13,107, doi:10.1002/ 2013JD020569.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kravitz, Ben, Philip J. Rasch, Piers M. Forster, Timothy Andrews, Jason N. S. Cole, Peter J. Irvine, Duoying Ji, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Balwinder Singh, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, and Jin-Ho Yoon, 2013: An energetic perspective on hydrologic cycle changes in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 13,087-13,102, doi: 10.1002/2013JD020502.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Pitari, Giovanni, Valentina Aquila, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Shingo Watanabe, Natalia De Luca, Glauco Di Genova, Eva Mancini, and Simone Tilmes, 2014: Stratospheric ozone response in experiments G3 and G4 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 2629-2653, doi:10.1002/ 2013JD020566.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Berdahl, Mira, Alan Robock, Duoying Ji, John C. Moore, Andy Jones, Ben Kravitz, and Shingo Watanabe, 2014: Arctic cryosphere response in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G3 and G4 scenarios. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 1308-1321, doi:10.1002/2013JD020627.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Xia, Lili, Alan Robock, Jason N. S. Cole, D. Ji, John C. Moore, Andy Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, B. Singh, Simone Tilmes, and Shingo Watanabe, 2014: Solar radiation management impacts on agriculture in China: A case study in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 8695-8711, doi:10.1002/2013JD020630.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Curry, Charles L., Jana Sillmann, David Bronaugh, Kari Alterskj�r, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Ben Kravitz, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Simone Tilmes, and Shuting Yang, 2014: A multi-model examination of climate extremes in an idealized geoengineering experiment. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 3900-3923, doi:10.1002/2013JD020648.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Irvine, Peter J., Olivier Boucher, Ben Kravitz, Kari Alterskj�r, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Daniel J. Lunt, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Balwinder Singh, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon, 2014: Key factors governing uncertainty in the response to sunshade geoengineering from a comparison of the GeoMIP ensemble and a perturbed parameter ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 7946-7962, doi:10.1002/2013JD020716.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Robock, Alan, 2014: Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, Issues Env. Sci. Tech. (special issue Geoengineering of the Climate System), 38, 162-185. (Invited paper)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Mills, Michael J., Owen B. Toon, Julia Lee-Taylor, and Alan Robock, 2014: Multi-decadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict. Earths Future, 2, 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Moore, John C., Annette Rinke, Xiaoyong Yu, Duoying Ji, Xuefeng Cui, Yan Li, Kari Alterskj�r, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, Helene Muri, Olivier Boucher, Nicolas Huneeus, Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, Ulrike Niemeier, Michael Schulz, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, and Shuting Wang, 2014: Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation under the GeoMIP G1 scenario. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 567-583, doi:10.1002/ 2013JD021060.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Huneeus, Nicolas, Olivier Boucher, Kari Alterskj�r, Jason N. S. Cole, Charles L. Curry, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Ben Kravitz, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Ulrike Niemeier, Phil Rasch, Alan Robock, Balwinder Singh, Hauke Schmidt, Michael Schulz, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, and Jin-Ho Yoon, 2014: Forcings and feedbacks in the GeoMIP ensemble for a reduction in solar irradiance and increase in CO2. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 5226-5239, doi:10.1002/2013JD021110.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Kravitz, Ben, Douglas G. MacMartin, Alan Robock, Philip J. Rasch, Katharine L. Ricke, Jason N. S. Cole, Charles L. Curry, Peter J. Irvine, Duoying Ji, David Keith, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, John C. Moore, Helene Muri, Balwinder Singh, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon, 2014: A multi-model assessment of regional climate disparities caused by solar geoengineering. Env. Res. Lett., 9, 074013. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/7/074013.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Collow, Thomas W., Alan Robock, and Wei Wu, 2014: Influences of soil moisture and vegetation on convective precipitation forecasts over the United States Great Plains. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 9338-9358, doi:10.1002/2014JD021454.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Schmidt, Anja, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Luke D. Oman, Alan Robock, and Stephen Self, 2014: Reply to comment by Cole-Dai et al. on Climatic impact of the long-lasting Laki eruption: Inapplicability of mass-independent sulfur isotope composition measurements. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 6636-6637, doi:10.1002/2013JD021440.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Ding, Yanni, James A. Carton, Gennady A. Chepurin, Georgiy Stenchikov, Alan Robock, Lori T. Sentman, and John P. Krasting, 2014: Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 119, 5622-5637, doi:10.1002/2013JC009780.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Tilmes, S., M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English, 2014: A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment designed for climate and chemistry models. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 7, 5447-5464, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-5447-2014.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Robock, Alan, 2014: Reply to Comment on The Latest on Volcanic Eruptions and Climate. Eos, 95(39), 353.

Progress 10/01/12 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Research community. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Four graduate students are working on their Ph.D. dissertations, Mira Berdahl, Lili Xia, Thomas Collow, and Corey Gabriel. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? By publishing journal articles and giving talks to the public and in conferences. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Keep up the same work.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? We have studied the effects of nuclear war on agriculture. A nuclear war using less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal would produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. The smoke from the fires started by airbursts on urban and industrial areas, would inject smoke from the resulting fires into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations find that the smoke would absorb sunlight, making it dark, cold, and dry at Earth’s surface and produce global-scale ozone depletion, with enhanced ultraviolet (UV) radiation. Crop models show that it would reduce agricultural production, with decreases of 10-40% in yield of winter wheat, rice, soybeans, and maize averaged over a decade. The continued environmental threat of the use of even a small number of nuclear weapons must be considered in nuclear policy deliberations in Russia, the U.S., and the rest of the world. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) has evaluated how reduction of solar radiation to counteract global warming would affect the regional climate, including temperature and precipitation patterns. If stopped, there would be rapid warming at a rate faster than occuring as a result of atmospheric carbon dioxide pollution. Volcanic eruptions are a useful natural analog for studying geoengineering. Climate models imperfectly simulate Arctic climate change for the past millenium. But high resolution simulations support the idea that a series of large volcanic eruptions in the second half of the 13th century C.E. were responsible for starting the Little Ice Age.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Kravitz, Ben, Ken Caldeira, Olivier Boucher, Alan Robock, Philip J. Rasch, Kari Alterskj�r, Diana Bou Karam, Jason N. S. Cole, Charles L. Curry, James M Haywood, Peter J. Irvine, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, Daniel J. Lunt, John Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Hauke Schmidt, Michael Schulz, Balwinder Singh, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, Shuting Yang, and Jin-Ho Yoon, 2013: Climate model response from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 8320-8332, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50646. (Featured as a Research Highlight in Nature, 9/5/13, Geoengineering has its limits, Nature, 501, 9, doi:10.1038/501009a)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Jones, Andy, Jim M. Haywood, Kari Alterskj�r, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Charles L. Curry, Peter J. Irvine, Duoying Ji, Ben Kravitz, J�n Egill Kristj�nsson, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Alan Robock, Hauke Schmidt, Balwinder Singh, Simone Tilmes, Shingo Watanabe, and Jin-Ho Yoon, 2013: The impact of abrupt suspension of solar radiation management (termination effect) in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 9743-9752, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50762.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Robock, Alan, Douglas G. MacMartin, Riley Duren, and Matthew W. Christensen, 2013: Studying geoengineering with natural and anthropogenic analogs. Climatic Change, 121, 445-458, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0777-5.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: �zdoan, Mutlu, Alan Robock, and Christopher Kucharik, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States. Climatic Change, 116, 373-387, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0518-1.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Xia, Lili, and Alan Robock, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on rice production in mainland China. Climatic Change, 116, 357-372, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0475-8.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Bourassa, Adam E., Alan Robock, William J. Randel, Terry Deshler, Landon A. Rieger, Nicholas D. Lloyd, E. J. (Ted) Llewellyn, and Douglas A. Degenstein, 2013: Response to comments on Large volcanic aerosol load in the stratosphere linked to Asian monsoon transport. Science, 339, 647, doi:10.1126/science.1227961.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Berdahl, Mira, and Alan Robock, 2013: Baffin Island snow extent sensitivity: Insights from a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 3506-3519, doi:10.1029/ 2012JD018785

Progress 10/01/11 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Presented the following invited talks: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, November 2, 2011 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming"); University of California - Berkeley, January 25, 2012 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming";) University of Alabama - Huntsville, February 1, 2012 (On "Volcanic Eruptions and Climate"); University of California - Davis, February 15, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); San Jose State University, San Jose, California, March 14, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); Carnegie Institution, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, March 20, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); Hadley Centre, British Met Office, Exeter, UK, March 29, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); University of California, Los Angeles, April 4, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Norway, May 21, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, July 12, 2012 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"); Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, September 21, 2012 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming"); Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, September 21, 2012 (2012 E. W. Guptill Memorial Lecture, on "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict"). Made 21 conference presentations. Invited participation in 5 national workshops and international symposia, including one IPCC meeting. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
No clearly measurable impacts this year. As one of my goals is to accelerate nuclear disarmament, it is a slow process, and the results of my work are gradually entering the policy debate, but I cannot point to a particular result this year.

Publications

• Robock, Alan, 2012: Will geoengineering with solar radiation management ever be used Ethics, Policy & Environment, 15, 202-205.
• Collow, Thomas W., Alan Robock, Jeffrey B. Basara, and Bradley G. Illston, 2012: Evaluation of SMOS retrievals of soil moisture over the central United States with currently available in-situ observations. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D09113, doi:10.1029/ 2011JD017095.
• Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, Drew T. Shindell, and Mark A. Miller, 2012: Sensitivity of stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon to aerosol size and altitude of injection. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D09203, doi:10.1029/2011JD017341.
• Bourassa, Adam E., Alan Robock, William J. Randel, Terry Deshler, Landon A. Rieger, Nicholas D. Lloyd, E. J. (Ted) Llewellyn, and Douglas A. Degenstein, 2012: Large volcanic aerosol load in the stratosphere linked to Asian monsoon transport. Science, 337, 78-81, doi:10.1126/science.1219371.
• Driscoll, Simon, Alessio Bozzo, Lesley J. Gray, Alan Robock, and Georgiy Stenchikov, 2012: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D17105, doi:10.1029/ 2012JD017607.
• Schmidt, Anja, Thorvaldur Thordarson, Luke D. Oman, Alan Robock, and Stephen Self, 2012: Climatic impact of the long-lasting 1783 Laki eruption: Inapplicability of mass-independent sulfur isotopic composition measurements. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23116, doi:10.1029/2012JD018414.
• Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, and James Haywood, 2012: Progress in climate model simulations of geoengineering: 2nd GeoMIP Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Workshop; Exeter, UK, 30-31 March 2012, EOS, 93, 340, doi:10.1029/2012ES003871.
• Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, and Jim M. Haywood, 2012: Summary of the Second GeoMIP Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Workshop, 30-31 March 2012, Exeter, UK, SPARC Newsletter, no. 39, 24-27.
• Robock, Alan, and Owen B. Toon, 2012: Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war, Bull. Atomic Sci., 68(5), 66-74, doi:10.1177/0096340212459127. (Invited paper)
• Robock, Alan, Michael R. Rampino, Thorvaldur Thordarson, and Stephen Self, 2012: Volcanism and the atmosphere: AGU Chapman Conference on Volcanism and the Earth's Atmosphere; Selfoss, Iceland, 10-16 June 2012. Eos, 93, 511-512, doi:10.1029/2012ES004014.

Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Presented the following invited lectures: University of Washington, Seattle, January 21, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") Princeton University Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy (STEP) Seminar, Princeton, New Jersey, February 14, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") University of Oklahoma, School of Geology and Geophysics, Norman, Oklahoma, February 24, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") University of Oklahoma, School of Geology and Geophysics, Norman, Oklahoma, February 25, 2011 (On "Volcanic eruptions and climate") University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, Oklahoma, February 25, 2011 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict") University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, Oklahoma, February 25, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") City College of New York, New York City, March 2, 2011 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict") NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, March 3, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, March 4, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, March 15, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, April 18, 2011 (On "Smoke and mirrors: Is geoengineering a solution to global warming") NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, May 2, 2011 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming") Mayors for Peace Seminar on Ecological and Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear Warfare, Geneva, Switzerland, May 17, 2011 (On "Catastrophic Climate Change") Keck Institute for Space Studies, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, May 23, 2011 (On "Volcanic Aerosols as an Analog for Geoengineering") University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, September 23, 2011 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming") National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, September 27, 2011 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming") Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, September 29, 2011 (On "Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict") National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado, November 2, 2011 (On "Smoke and Mirrors: Is Geoengineering a Solution to Global Warming") Made the 26 conference presentations. Invited participation in 11 national workshops and international symposia, including two IPCC meetings. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
No clearly measurable impacts this year. As one of my goals is to accelerate nuclear disarmament, it is a slow process, and the results of my work are gradually entering the policy debate, but I cannot point to a particular result this year.

Publications

• Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, Olivier Boucher, Hauke Schmidt, Karl Taylor, Georgiy Stenchikov, and Michael Schulz, 2011: The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). Atmospheric Science Letters, 12, 162-167, doi:10.1002/asl.316.
• Kravitz, Ben, and Alan Robock, 2011: The climate effects of high latitude volcanic eruptions: The role of the time of year. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D01105, doi:10.1029/ 2010JD014448.
• Sertel, E., C. Ormeci, and Alan Robock, 2011: Modelling land cover change impact on the summer climate of the Marmara region, Turkey. International J. Global Warming, 3, 194-202.
• Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, Adam Bourassa, Terry Deshler, Decheng Wu, Ina Mattis, Fanny Finger, Anne Hoffmann, Christoph Ritter, Lubna Bitar, Thomas J. Duck, and John E. Barnes, 2011: Simulation and observations of stratospheric aerosols from the 2009 Sarychev volcanic eruption. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D18211, doi:10.1029/2010JD015501.
• Dorigo, W. A., W. Wagner, R. Hohensinn, S. Hahn, C. Paulik, A. Xaver, A. Gruber, M. Drusch, S. Mecklenburg, P. van Oevelen, A. Robock, and T. Jackson, 2011: The International Soil Moisture Network: A data hosting facility for global in situ soil moisture measurements. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1675-1698, doi:10.5194/hess-15-1675-2011.
• Dorigo, Wouter, Peter Van Oevelen, Wolfgang Wagner, Matthias Drusch, Susanne Mecklenburg, Alan Robock, and Thomas Jackson, 2011: The International Soil Moisture Network: A new data hosting facility for in-situ soil moisture data. EOS, 92 (17), 141-142, doi:10.1029/2010ES003198.
• Robock, Alan, 2011: Forum: Geoengineering Research. Issues Sci. Tech., 27, No. 2, 5-9. (Invited paper) http://www.issues.org/27.2/forum.html
• Robock, Alan, 2011: Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble. An editorial comment. Climatic Change, 105, 383-385, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-0017-1. (Invited paper)
• Robock, Alan, 2011: Nuclear winter. in Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather, Second Edition, Volume 2, Stephen H. Schneider, Michael Mastrandrea, and Terry L. Root, Eds., (Oxford Univ. Press, New York). (Invited paper)
• Robock, Alan, Ben Kravitz, and Olivier Boucher, 2011: Standardizing Experiments in Geoengineering; GeoMIP Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Workshop; New Brunswick, New Jersey, 10-12 February 2011, EOS, 92, 197, doi:10.1029/ 2011ES003424.
• Ajai, L. Bengtsson, D. Breashears, P. J. Crutzen, S. Fuzzi, W. Haeberli, W. W. Immerzeel, G. Kaser, C. Kennel, A. Kulkarni, R. Pachauri, T. H. Painter, J. Rabassa, V. Ramanathan, A. Robock, C. Rubbia, L. Russell, M. Sanchez Sorondo, H. J. Schellnhuber, S. Sorooshian, T. F. Stocker, L. G. Thompson, O. B. Toon, and D. Zaelke, 2011: Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene, (Pontifical Academy of Sciences, Vatican City), 15 pp.
• Robock, Alan, 2011: Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Nature, 473, 275-276.

Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: We conducted climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and geoengineering. We analyzed remote sensing observations of soil moisture. The following conference presentations were made: Great Plains irrigation produces enhanced summer precipitation in the Midwest (with Anthony DeAngelis, Ying Fan, M. Deniz Kustu, and David A. Robinson; 90th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, Atlanta, Georgia, January 17-21, 2010); A Proposal for Standardized Geoengineering Experiments for CMIP5 (Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies, Pacific Grove, California, March 22-26, 2010); The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) (with Ben Kravitz; European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Vienna, Austria, May 3-7, 2010); Effects of the 2009 Sarychev Volcanic Eruption on Climate (invited presentation; with Ben Kravitz and Adam Bourassa; European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, Vienna, Austria, May 3-7, 2010); Stratospheric Geoengineering: Climate Modeling, Risks, and Benefits (Invited lecture; Governing Climate Engineering - A Transdisciplinary Summer School, Max-Planck-Institute for Comparative Public Law and International Law, Heidelberg, Germany, July 12-16, 2010); Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict (Invited lecture; Workshop on the Consequences for the Climate of the Planet of a Nuclear War," Havana, Cuba, September 14-15, 2010) 417. Risks of Using Stratospheric Aerosols for Geoengineering (Invited presentation; 29th Annual Conference of the American Association for Aerosol Research, Portland, Oregon, October 25-29, 2010) 418. Ethical Principles for Field Testing SRM (Invited presentation; Workshop on the Ethics of Solar Radiation Management, Missoula, Montana, October 18-20, 2010) 419. Risks of Using Stratospheric Aerosols for Geoengineering (Invited presentation; Beijing Forum - The Harmony of Civilizations and Prosperity for All, Commitments and Responsibilities for a Better World, Beijing, China, Nov. 5-7, 2010) 420. Regional Climate Modeling of Volcanic Eruptions and the Arctic Climate System: A Baffin Island Case Study (with Mira Losic; presented by Mira Losic; AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17, 2010) 421. Evaluation of temporal and spatial patterns of SMOS soil moisture retrievals using in situ soil observations over the central United States (with Thomas W. Collow; presented by Thomas W. Collow; AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17, 2010) 422. Effects of Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering on Food Supply in China (with Lili Xia; presented by Lili Xia; AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17, 2010) 423. Stratospheric geoengineering with black carbon aerosols (with Ben Kravitz; presented by Ben Kravitz; AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17, 2010) 424. Regional Responses to Stratospheric Geoengineering: The Need for GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project) (Invited presentation; with Ben Kravitz; AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17, 2010) 425. Geoengineering and adaptation (AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, California, December 13-17, 2010) PARTICIPANTS: Graduate students: Ben Kravitz, Anthony DeAngelis, Lili Xia, Mira Losic, and Thomas Collow. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
Our work added to our understanding of the climatic impact of volcanic eruptions, so we will be better prepared to predict the outcome of the next large eruption. We have been leaders of geoengineering research, organizing international study of the impacts of purposeful creation of a layer of cloud in the stratosphere to cool the climate, using computer simulations. We have identified more than 20 reasons why this may be a bad idea. Our work on the impacts of irrigation in the Great Plains shows that in the summer it produces more precipitation and streamflow in the Midwest.

Publications

• Sertel, Elif, Alan Robock, and Cankut Ormeci, 2010: Impacts of land cover data quality on regional climate simulations. Internat. J. Climatology, 30, 1942-1953, doi:10.1002/joc.2036.
• DeAngelis, Anthony, Francina Dominguez, Ying Fan, Alan Robock, M. Deniz Kustu, and David Robinson, 2010: Observational evidence of enhanced precipitation due to irrigation over the Great Plains of the United States. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D15115, doi:10.1029/ 2010JD013892.
• Miller, Gifford H., Julie Brigham-Grette, Richard B. Alley, Lesleigh Anderson, Henning Bauch, Mary Anne Douglas, Mary E. Edwards, Scott A. Elias, Bruce Finney, J. J. Fitzpatrick, Svend V. Funder, Timothy D. Herbert, Larry Hinzman, Darrell Kaufman, Glen M. MacDonald, L. Polyak, Alan Robock, Mark Serreze, John Smol, Robert Spielhagen, J. W. C. White, Alexander P. Wolfe, and Eric Wolff, 2010: Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic. Quat. Sci. Rev., 29(15-16), 1679-1715.
• Robock, Alan, 2010: Nuclear winter. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 418-427. (Invited paper)
• Kravitz, Ben, Alan Robock, and Adam Bourassa, 2010: Negligible climatic effects from the 2008 Okmok and Kasatochi volcanic eruptions. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D00L05, doi:10.1029/ 2009JD013525.
• Jones, Andy, Jim Haywood, Olivier Boucher, Ben Kravitz, and Alan Robock, 2010: Geoengineering by stratospheric SO2 injection: Results from the Met Office HadGEM2 climate model and comparison with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 5999-6006, doi:10.5194/acp-10-5999-2010.
• Kustu, M. Deniz, Ying Fan, and Alan Robock, 2010: Large-scale water cycle perturbation due to irrigation pumping in the US High Plains: 1. A synthesis of observed stream flow changes. J. Hydrology, 390, 222-244, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.06.045.