Recipient Organization
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
750 AGRONOMY RD STE 2701
COLLEGE STATION,TX 77843-0001
Performing Department
Agri Economics
Non Technical Summary
Land-use change is a primary driver of the losses in biodiversity and ecosystem services at local to global scales (Foley et al. 2005). Developing spatially explicit projections of land-use change and their consequences has thus emerged as one of the eight grand challenges in environmental science (Clark et al. 2001; Harte 2001; National Research Council 2001). Yet our ability to forecast land-use change has been limited by the availability of spatial data and our understanding of nonlinear threshold responses in economic and ecological systems (Nilsson et al. 2003; Wu et al. 2000). For example, LANDSAT satellite imagery is commonly used to classify land-cover change from urban and agricultural uses; however, it does not detect low-density exurban development. This is important to consider because exurban development uses a great deal more land than both urban and suburban development (Heimlich and Anderson 2001). Exurban development therefore poses the greater challenge to farmland preservation efforts and has caused significant reductions in the survival of many native species (Hansen et al. 2005). To mitigate these impacts, it is important to understand what factors influence the spatial pattern of land-use development. In particular, it is essential to analyze the role of land-use policies and infrastructure planning on guiding future development patterns and the expected ecological outcomes. Additionally, human activities related to land use and water management have major impacts on aquatic ecosystems (Harding et al. 1998). As urban and agricultural development expands, it has caused reductions in stream flows and water quality. This has contributed to high numbers of endangered aquatic species and the decline of economically valuable fisheries, such as anadromous salmonids (Richter et al. 1997). Likewise, the federal listing of endangered species can trigger instream flow requirements that reduce water security for irrigated agriculture and other uses. Therefore, there is a need to develop spatial economic models to understand the joint decisions on land-use development and water management. This would be a first step to an integrated spatially explicit economic and hydrologic model in order to improve water supply security for rural landowners and the instream flows needed to sustain aquatic ecosystems.
Animal Health Component
30%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
70%
Applied
30%
Developmental
(N/A)
Goals / Objectives
This research program has the following four main objectives: (1) to identify and assess the economic factors that determine spatial land-use patterns, with an emphasis on the role of land-use regulations, infrastructure planning, and conservation incentive programs; (2) to analyze the joint decision process on land use and water management for rural landowners and how these decisions vary according to geomorphic setting and other factors; (3) to improve economic models to forecast land-use change and water management and assess scenarios on the influence of various environmental policy options; and (4) to improve the economic efficiency of environmental policies by integrating spatial and dynamic aspects of ecological and hydrologic systems.
Project Methods
This research program will take advantage of geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial data to perform economic analysis, as well as multidisciplinary analysis with ecologists and hydrologists. Parcel-level models of land-use change will be used to characterize and explain the determinants of residential development (Bockstael 1996; Irwin, Bell, and Geoghegan 2003; Newburn and Berck 2006). These econometric models are able to distinguish how individual landowners respond to land-use policies. The aim is to understand how smart-growth policies, such as urban growth boundaries, have different effects on guiding future residential development at suburban and exurban densities. This modeling approach can be similarly applied to understand landowner decisions on agricultural expansion and water management. In this case, the spatially explicit approach is essential because access to surface and ground water supplies can vary tremendously across the landscape. Novel methodologies will be used to assess the spatial variation in land use and water management at a landowner level, by integrating various data sources within a GIS, including current and historic agricultural land use, water right permits, onsite reservoirs, and other physical and locational parcel characteristics. Econometric models are used to determine how landowners respond to policies that influence both land and water use. For example, instream flow requirements for protecting endangered species will affect the timing and location of water withdrawals; therefore, this analysis aims to understand which types of landowners are most affected by the policy restrictions and how they would respond if these policies were altered. The economic analysis eventually will be integrated with hydrologic and ecological models because the ultimate goal is to assess tradeoffs between water security for human uses and instream flows to sustain aquatic ecosystems.