Progress 07/01/10 to 06/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: U.S. Congressional committees (e.g., agriculture), various federal and state government agencies (e.g., EPA, USDA), policy makers, trade negotiators, farmers, commodity organizations (e.g., National Sorghum Producers, National Corn Growers Association), researchers, agribusiness and agricultural producers. Changes/Problems: Budget uncertainties caused some minor project adjustments. A more limited baseline was developed in 2012 and congressional and USDA staff briefing focused only on domestic market outlook. However, the projections for the international markets were sent out for review to various agricultural and policy experts for feedback, which were incorporated in the final baseline posted on the FAPRI website. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Through this project, 2 graduate students and 2 post doctoral research assistants were provided opportunities to learn about and work on the FAPRI modeling system. A graduate student, Francisco Rosas, developed the fertilizer component of the model. Later on, as a post-doctoral research assistant, he continued to improve the fertilizer model and establish the fertilzer outlook. Another graduate student, Jerome Durmotier, established the GreenAgSim model, which calculates the GHG emissions from the output of the FAPRI agricultural models. Additionally, the continuous maintenance and improvement of the models supported by this grant allowed for collaborative work with other agencies, which provided professional development of the researchers. For example, to determine the feedback between the agricultural and energy sectors due to biofuel expansion, FAPRI collaborated with EPA to develop an integrated agricultural/energy model by linking the FAPRI U.S. agricultural model to EPA’s MARKAL energy systems model. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Results from the analyses are disseminated through the CARD website, which has a wide audience including industry, farmers and farm groups interested in agriculture and biofuels, as well as via conference presentations, working papers and peer-reviewed journal articles. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
All three objectives have been accomplished over the duration of the project. Using the FAPRI modeling system, an annual baseline providing projections of supply, utilization and prices for all major crops and livestock by country or region was completed for 2010, 2011 and 2012. The Online FAPRI World Agricultural Outlook with accompanying Excel tables was posted in 2010, 2011 and 2012 (condensed version of the outlook for 2012 due to reduced staffing). Every year, in preparation for the new baseline, the FAPRI models of world agricultural markets were updated with recent parameter estimates, updated macroeconomic history and projections, policy variables, supply and utilization data and prices. In each year, once the baseline was established, the FAPRI models were used to conduct policy analyses. In 2011 FAPRI included a fertilizer outlook projecting N-P-K use by specific crop and country over the next 15 years as well as a U.S. cellulosic ethanol outlook (for corn stover and switchgrass). Also in 2011, FAPRI conducted a number of scenarios to analyse the implications on world agriculture and GHG emissions of: an imposition of a U.S. nitrogen fertilizer tax; an afforestation scenario; a reduction in energy prices; and the U.S. removal of biofuel taxes and credits. In the 2011-2012 period, in order to better track land-use patterns, FAPRI developed a preliminary forestry model structure in order to incorporate a forestry module into the FAPRI modeling system and outlook projections. Additionally, to provide better fertilizer projections in the future, elasticities of fertilizer supply with respect to own prices were estimated, by nutrient and at the world level and elasticities of crop yield with respect to fertilizer use (production function elasticities) were updated. With the updated baseline, FAPRI was able to run a number of scenarios, including the impact of the removing trade and domestic distortions on agricultural markets. In 2012-13, additional work was done on the model structure to provide better estimates of land use change. Additionally, to account for additional biofuel feedstocks and as a part of continuous model development, a cottonseed oil component was incorporated into the FAPRI models (partially funded by EPA).
Publications
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
FAPRI 2012 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa (http://www.fapri.iastate.edu/outlook/2012/)
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Dumortier, J., Dermot J. Hayes, Miguel Carriquiry, Fengxia Dong, Xiaodong Du, A. Elobeid, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Pamela A. Martin, and Kranti Mulik. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental Research Letters, 7(2) 7 024023 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024023, June 2012.
- Type:
Book Chapters
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Elobeid, Amani, M. Carriquiry and J. Fabiosa. Implications of Global Ethanol Expansion on Brazilian Regional Land Usage. 2012. In Socioeconomic and Environmental Impacts of Biofuels: Evidence from Developing Nations, Alexandros Gasparatos and Per Stromberg, editors, Cambridge University Press.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2012
Citation:
Elobeid, A., M. A. Carriquiry, and J.F. Fabiosa. Land-Use Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the FAPRI-CARD Model System: Addressing Bias and Uncertainty. Climate Change Economics, August 2012, Vol. 03, No. 03 (doi:10.1142/S2010007812500145)
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Nassar, A. M., L. Harfuch, G. Gran�o, A. Elobeid, and M. Carriquiry. Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States. White Paper July 2013 (partially funded by USDA Cooperative Agreement 58011111002).
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Progress 07/01/11 to 06/30/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's (FAPRI) first objective is to produce a baseline outlook of the U.S. and world agricultural markets, which provides projection of prices and quantities produced, consumed, and traded for all major temperate crops, livestock, dairy, and biofuel products. The second objective is to produce products to inform and engage FAPRI's main clients about the FAPRI-ISU World Agricultural Outlook. These clients include major stakeholders of the agricultural sector, from researchers and industry leaders to the foremost policymakers. This Outlook Book, which provides details on FAPRI's projections of U.S. and world agricultural markets as well as market commentary, is widely used as a reference. In 2011, FAPRI included for the first time a fertilizer outlook projecting N-P-K use by specific crop and country over the next 15 years as well as a U.S. cellulosic ethanol outlook. The third objective is to conduct economic policy analysis to determine the potential impact of policy proposals on U.S. and world agriculture. For the 2011-2012 period, FAPRI has completed the 2012 agricultural outlook projections for the U.S. and world agricultural markets. Additionally, in order to better track land-use patterns, FAPRI has developed a preliminary forestry model structure in order to incorporate a forestry module into the FAPRI modeling system and outlook projections. And to provide better fertilizer projections in the future, elasticities of fertilizer supply with respect to own prices were estimated, by nutrient and at the world level and elasticities of crop yield with respect to fertilizer use (production function elasticities) were updated. With the updated baseline, FAPRI was able to run a number of scenarios, including the impact of the removing trade and domestic distortions on agricultural markets. Results from the analyses are disseminated through the CARD website as well as via conference presentations, working papers and peer-reviewed journal articles. PARTICIPANTS: Researchers involved in this project at Iowa State University include Jacinto F. Fabiosa (former FAPRI Co-Director (until May 2012)), Dermot J. Hayes (FAPRI Co-Director), Bruce Babcock (former CARD Director (up to October 2011)), Miguel Carriquiry (International Oilseeds and Biodiesel Analyst), Amani E. Elobeid (International Sugar and Ethanol Analyst), and Juan Francisco Rosas-Perez (graduate student). Project specific collaborations included researchers at EPA, Southern Illinois University, North Carolina A&T University, University of Arkansas, Texas Tech University, USDA, National Center for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAP), India. TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. Congressional committees (e.g., agriculture), various federal and state government agencies (e.g., EPA), policy makers, trade negotiators, farmers, commodity organizations (e.g., National Sorghum Producers), researchers, agribusiness and agricultural producers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Budget uncertainties caused some minor project adjustments. A more limited baseline was developed and a review of the baseline projections was conducted via email, circulated to various reviewers who provided feedback, including USDA, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, and various experts on agricultural markets.
Impacts
FAPRI develops and maintains large econometric models of world agricultural markets. Every October these models are updated with recent parameter estimates, macroeconomic and policy variables, supply and utilization data, and prices. Using these models coupled with market insights, FAPRI produces a preliminary baseline projection of world agricultural markets. These projections are sent out to and reviewed by 150 agricultural and policy experts acting as outside referees, who provide feedback on the projections. Based upon comments from the review process and available data updates, FAPRI finalizes the preliminary projections to come up with the FAPRI baseline market outlook. In May of each year, various organizations involved in agricultural market outlook work, like the USDA, FAO, OECD, and the EU Commission hold a World Outlook Conference to compare model developments, recent outlook, and tackle emerging developments affecting the agricultural sector such as recent developments in biofuels and GHG mitigation policies under consideration. Using the new baseline market outlook as a reference case, FAPRI conducts policy analysis on a continuing basis, with no fixed timetable, depending on requests by the legislative and executive branches of government or other stakeholders. Deadlines vary by request. Typically, FAPRI staff members spend between two weeks to three months per request. This year, analysis on the impact of removal of trade barriers and domestic distortions by other countries on U.S. agricultural markets was conducted. Results show that the U.S. agricultural sector would benefit from more liberal and less distorted markets.
Publications
- Elobeid, A., Carriquiry, M., Fabiosa, J.F., Mulik, K., Hayes, D.J., Babcock, B.A., Dumortier, J., and Rosas, F. 2011. Greenhouse gas and nitrogen fertilizer scenarios for U.S. agriculture and global biofuels. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, CARD Working Paper 11-WP 524.
- Rosas, F. 2012. Essays on the environmental effects of agricultural production. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa. Paper 1: Duality theory econometrics: How reliable is it with real-world data? Paper 2: Response of crop yields to output prices: A Bayesian approach to complement the duality theory econometrics. Paper 3: Nitrous oxide emissions reductions from cutting excessive nitrogen fertilizer applications.
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Progress 07/01/10 to 06/30/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute's (FAPRI) first objective is to produce a baseline outlook of the U.S. and world agricultural markets, which gives a projection of prices and quantities produced, consumed, and traded for all major temperate crops, livestock, dairy, and biofuel products. The second objective is to produce products to inform and engage FAPRI's main clients about the FAPRI 2011 FAPRI-ISU World Agricultural Outlook. These clients include major stakeholders of the agricultural sector, from researchers and industry leaders to the foremost policymakers. This Outlook Book, which provides details on FAPRI's projections of U.S. and world agricultural markets as well as market commentary, is widely used as a reference. In 2011, FAPRI included for the first time a fertilizer outlook projecting N-P-K use by specific crop and country over the next 15 years. Moreover, a cellulosic ethanol outlook was developed using corn stover and switchgrass as modeled feedstocks. The third objective is to conduct economic policy analysis as requested by legislative and/or executive branches of government to determine the potential impact of policy proposals on U.S. and world agriculture. In 2010-2011 FAPRI examined greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of four policy interventions, including the afforestation feature of the 2009 American Clean Energy and Security Act. PARTICIPANTS: Researchers involved in this project at Iowa State University include Jacinto F. Fabiosa (FAPRI Co-Director), Dermot J. Hayes (FAPRI Co-Director), Bruce A. Babcock (CARD Director), Miguel Carriquiry (International Oilseeds and Biodiesel Analyst), Fengxia Dong (International Dairy Analyst), Xiaodong Du (International Livestock and Poultry Analyst), Amani E. Elobeid (International Sugar and Ethanol Analyst), Kranti Mulik (International Grains Analyst). Project specific collaborations included researchers at EPA, Southern Illinois University, North Carolina A&T University, University of Arkansas, Texas Tech University, USDA, and the European Commission-Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy, Renewable Energy Unit. TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. Congressional committees (e.g., agriculture), various federal and state government agencies (e.g., EPA), policy makers, trade negotiators, commodity organizations (e.g., National Sorghum Producers), researchers, agribusiness and agricultural producers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Budget uncertainties caused some minor project adjustments. A more limited baseline was developed and congressional and USDA staff briefing focused only on the domestic market outlook.
Impacts
FAPRI develops and maintains large econometric models of world agricultural markets. Every October these models are updated with recent parameter estimates, macroeconomic and policy variables, supply and utilization data, and prices. Using these models coupled with market insights, FAPRI produces a preliminary baseline projection of world agricultural markets in the month of November. These projections are sent out to and reviewed by 150 agricultural and policy experts acting as outside referees, who then meet for two days in December in Washington, DC, for a formal review of the preliminary baseline results. In January, based upon comments from the review process and available data updates, FAPRI finalizes the preliminary projections to come up with the FAPRI baseline market outlook. FAPRI then conducts briefings about its new baseline market outlook with the U.S. Congress, the USDA, and commodity groups as well as representatives from the media. In May of each year, various organizations involved in agricultural market outlook work, like the USDA, FAO, OECD, and the EU Commission hold a World Outlook Conference to compare model developments, recent outlook, and tackle emerging developments affecting the agricultural sector such as GHG mitigation policies under consideration. Using the new baseline market outlook as a reference case, FAPRI conducts policy analysis on a continuing basis, with no fixed timetable, depending on requests by the legislative and executive branches of government. Deadlines vary by request. Typically, FAPRI staff members spend between two weeks to three months per request. This year, the baseline assumes termination of biofuel tax credit but existing biofuel mandates remain in place and are binding. Four policy scenarios were examined. The first scenario is a 10% increase in the price of nitrogen fertilizer in the United States. The second scenario is a reversion of cropland into forestland in the spirit of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009. The third scenario examines how lower energy prices would impact world agriculture. The fourth scenario reintroduces biofuel tax credits and duties. These analyses showed that unintended consequences can result from some policy interventions. That is, policy intervention that might be motivated for environmental benefit can result in an increase in world greenhouse gas emissions.
Publications
- LeRoy, D., Elobeid, A., and Klein, K. 2011. The Impact of Trade Barriers on Mandated Biofuel Consumption in Canada. Can. J. of Agric. Econ. 2011:1-18, DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2011.01223.x.
- Carriquiry, M., Du, X., and Timilsina, G. 2011. Second-Generation Biofuels: Economics and Policies. Energy Policy 39(7):4222-4234.
- Miao, R., Hennessy, D.A., and Babcock, B.A. 2010. Investment in Cellulosic Biofuel Refineries: Do Renewable Identification Numbers Matter CARD Working Paper 10-WP 514.
- Babcock, B.A, Barr, K.J., and Carriquiry, M. 2010. Costs and Benefits to Taxpayers, Consumers, and Producers from U.S. Ethanol Policies. CARD Staff Report 10-SR 106.
- Carriquiry, M., Dong, F., Du, X., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J.F., Chavez, E., and Pan, S. 2010. World Market Impacts of High Biofuel Use in the European Union. CARD Working Paper 10-WP 508.
- Fabiosa, J.F., Beghin, J.C., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., and Yu, T. 2010. Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model. Land Econ. 86(4):687-706.
- Brookes, G., Yu, T., Tokgoz, S., and Elobeid, A. 2010. The Production and Price Impact of Biotech Corn, Canola, and Soybean Crops. AgBioForum 13(1):1-15.
- Fabiosa, J.F., Beghin, J.C., Dong, F., Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., and Yu, T.H. 2010. The Global Bioenergy Expansion: How Large Are the Food-Fuel Trade-offs The Handbook of Bioenergy Economics and Policy, Madhu Khanna, Jurgen Scheffran, and David Zilberman, editors, XIV, ISBN: 978-1-4419-0368-6.
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