Progress 07/01/10 to 06/30/13
Outputs
Target Audience: U.S. Congressional committees (e.g., agriculture), various federal and state government agencies (e.g., EPA, USDA), policy makers, trade negotiators, farmers and farm groups, commodity organizations (e.g., National Sorghum Producers), researchers, agribusiness and agricultural producers. Changes/Problems: Budget uncertainties caused some minor project adjustments. In the last year, a more limited baseline was developed and a review of the baseline projections was conducted via email, circulated to various reviewers who provided feedback, including USDA, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, and various experts on agricultural markets. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? This project has provided training opportunities in modeling for two graduate students and a postdoctoral student. Under the supervision of full-time researchers, the graduate students helped in developing a fertilizer component, which was incorporated into the FAPRI modeling system, and a GHG accounting model used to account for GHG emissions from agriculture. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The results were presented at professional and policy-oriented conferences and published in scholarly journals. Results were also disseminated through CARD reports available on the CARD’s website, which has a wide audience including farmers and farm groups, researchers in academic institutions, industry and government, individuals associated with agricultural and environmental groups as well as Federal and state agencies. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
Over the duration of the project, FAPRI has continued to modify the global agricultural modeling system by developing components to better examine the implications of biofuel expansion on agriculture as well as to capture land use change, GHG emissions, and fertilizer use. These improvements included a new yield specification in the crops models; the expansion of dried distillers’ grains with solubles (DDGS); the development of a Brazilian regional model to track land-use change in Brazil; development of a GHG accounting model; incorporation of a fertilizer component; modification of the modeling structure to include forestry and pasture; and introduction of a cellulosic ethanol sector in the U.S. crops model. Additionally, to capture differences in land quality, productivity, and climate considerations, the “Rest of the World” aggregate was divided into five regions, namely, Other Africa, Other America, Other Asia, Other Europe, and Other Oceania. To better represent biodiesel feedstocks in the model, a cottonseed oil component was also incorporated into the FAPRI modeling system. Specifically, the trend yield parameter estimates were updated to include new data for all crops and for all countries. The yield equations were modified to capture potential intensification (more intensive use of inputs) and extensification (yield decline with increase in marginal land) impacts of prices. The incorporation of the fertilizer component allows for growth in yield from intensification to be associated with a change in the rate of nitrogen-phosphorous-potassium fertilizer application per hectare. The GHG accounting model estimates emissions according to the categories for national GHG inventories established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A forestry model structure was developed for Brazil and extended for other countries modeled in the FAPRI system to more accurately track land use changes. With most of the modifications in place, a baseline was completed every year after updating and calibrating the models with the most recent information of prices, macroeconomic variables, policies, and supply and utilization for the modeled agricultural commodities. All the improvements provided for better projections of the agricultural commodity markets covered by the FAPRI modeling system. After completion of the baseline, a number of scenarios were run. This included one of the goals of the project (evaluating the implications of the 2009 Clean Energy Act), which was the implementation of a U.S. afforestation scenario, in which the crop area displacement from afforestation amounted to 50 million acres of cropland displaced from production in the United States by 2025.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Awaiting Publication
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Elobeid, Amani, Miguel Carriquiry, Kranti Mulik, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Jerome Dumortier, and Francisco Rosas. 2013. Biofuel Expansion, Fertilizer Use and GHG Emissions: Unintended Consequences of Mitigation Policies. Economic Research International Special Issue.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Andr� Meloni Nassar, Leila Harfuch, Gabriel Gran�o, Amani Elobeid, and Miguel Carriquiry. Comparing the trends and strength of determinants to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in consideration of biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States. CARD White paper.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Elobeid, A., S. Tokgoz, R. Dodder, T. Johnson, O. Kaplan, L. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi. Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment. Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 48, October 2013, Pages 116.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Submitted
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Beghin, J. and A. Elobeid. The Impact of the U.S. Sugar Program Redux. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2011
Citation:
Elobeid, Amani, Miguel Carriquiry, Jacinto F. Fabiosa, Kranti Mulik, Dermot J. Hayes, Bruce A. Babcock, Jerome Dumortier, and Francisco Rosas. Greenhouse Gas and Nitrogen Fertilizer Scenarios for U.S. Agriculture and Global Biofuels , Working Paper 11-WP524, June 2011.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Babcock, B., M. Moreira, and Y. Peng. Biofuel Taxes, Subsidies, and Mandates: Impacts on US and Brazilian Markets. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, CARD Staff Report 13-SR 108 May 2013.
- Type:
Other
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Rosas, Francisco. Fertilizer Use by Crop at the Country Level (19902010). Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, CARD Working Paper 12-WP 535, November 2012.
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Progress 07/01/11 to 06/30/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) continues to upgrade and develop models of world agricultural and food markets to provide analytical capability in order to examine emerging policy issues of significant interest to important stakeholders. Recent model developments continue to improve on the tracking of current land-use patterns in all countries and regions covered by FAPRI. Specifically, data are being collected and model structures developed to incorporate forestry and pasture modules into the FAPRI agricultural modeling system. A preliminary forestry model structure has been developed for Brazil, which will be used as a template for other countries. This will allow for better tracking of former uses of land that may be brought into production under an agricultural expansion phase. Additionally, new developments have been made in the fertilizer model. Using time-series data, elasticities of fertilizer supply with respect to own prices were estimated, by nutrient and at the world level. These elasticities are used in the projection of endogenous fertilizer prices that clear the world nutrient market. Using cross-sectional data, the elasticities of crop yield with respect to fertilizer use (production function elasticities) were updated. These elasticities determine the changes in projected fertilizer application rates by country, by crop, and by nutrient. Updating these elasticities involved incorporating information about intensity of agricultural capital use and data on Global Agro-ecological Zones by country. These improvements provide better fertilizer projections by country and crop. Future model development plans include incorporating the fertilizer improvements into the FAPRI agricultural modeling system. Better modeling of the relationship between energy prices and ethanol has also been incorporated into the Brazil model. FAPRI uses several venues for dissemination of results, including the CARD website, conference presentations, working papers and peer-reviewed journal articles. PARTICIPANTS: Researchers involved in this project at Iowa State University include Jacinto F. Fabiosa (former FAPRI Co-Director (up to May 2012)), Dermot J. Hayes (FAPRI Co-Director), Bruce Babcock (former CARD Director (up to October 2011)), Miguel Carriquiry (International Oilseeds and Biodiesel Analyst), Amani E. Elobeid (International Sugar and Ethanol Analyst), and Juan Francisco Rosas-Perez (graduate student). Project specific collaborations included researchers at EPA, Southern Illinois University, North Carolina A&T University, University of Arkansas, Texas Tech University, USDA, National Center for Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NCAP), India. TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. Congressional committees (e.g., agriculture), various federal and state government agencies (e.g., EPA), policy makers, trade negotiators, farmers and farm groups, commodity organizations (e.g., National Sorghum Producers), researchers, agribusiness and agricultural producers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Budget uncertainties caused some minor project adjustments. A more limited baseline was developed and a review of the baseline projections was conducted via email, circulated to various reviewers who provided feedback, including USDA, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, and various experts on agricultural markets.
Impacts
The process of model development is continuous, with different phases occurring at different times of the year. Regular data update is from October to January. The data in the models are updated to reflect new historical information of prices, costs, macroeconomic variables, policies, and available supply and utilization for all crops, livestock, dairy, and biofuel products in the world. Also, during the baseline exercises, equations in models are changed to better fit the historical data and conform to consensus views on the direction and magnitude of market outcomes. Typically, the latter changes in specification are minor. After completion of the baseline projections, conceptual work is undertaken using new modeling approaches or estimation techniques to expand and improve the models more fundamentally than is possible during the baseline process. The inclusion of the greenhouse gas (GHG) model and the fertilizer model into the modeling system enables FAPRI to estimate GHG emissions derived from associated changes in forestland, grassland, cropland, and idle cropland as well as from fertilizer use for agricultural soil management. Moreover, with fertilizer cost now endogenized estimation of intensification effects is improved. All the improvements provide for better projections of the agricultural commodity markets covered by the FAPRI modeling system.
Publications
- Dodder, R.S., Elobeid A., Johnson, T.L., Kaplan, P.O., Kurkalova, L.A., Secchi, S., and Tokgoz, S. 2011. Environmental impacts of emerging biomass feedstock markets: energy, agriculture, and the farmer. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, CARD Working Paper 11-WP 526.
- Dumortier, J., Hayes, D.J., Carriquiry, M., Dong, F., Du, X., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J.F., Martin, P.A., and Mulik, K. 2012. The effects of potential changes in United States beef production on global grazing systems and greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental Research Letters 7(2) 7 024023 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024023.
- Du, X., and Hayes, D.J. 2012. The impact of ethanol production on U.S. and regional gasoline markets: an update to 2012. CARD Working Paper 12-WP 528, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University.
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Progress 07/01/10 to 06/30/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) continues to upgrade and develop new models of world agricultural and food markets to provide analytical capability to examine emerging policy issues of significant interest to important stakeholders. Recent model development to track current land-use patterns in all countries and regions covered by FAPRI allow tracing of former uses of land that may be brought into production under an agricultural expansion phase. This capability enabled FAPRI to include in its FAPRI-ISU 2011 World Agricultural Outlook a GHG emission outlook projected over 15 years by source (i.e., GHG from agricultural production and land-use change) and by country. Also, the new fertilizer model enabled FAPRI to include a fertilizer use outlook projected over 15 years by nutrient (N-P-K), by crop, and by country. Future model development plan includes endogenizing fertilizer supply to mimic actual short-run and long-run fertilizer market supply behavior and solve for a market-clearing fertilizer price. PARTICIPANTS: Researchers involved in this project at Iowa State University include Jacinto F. Fabiosa (FAPRI Co-Director), Dermot J. Hayes (FAPRI Co-Director), Bruce A. Babcock (CARD Director), Miguel Carriquiry (International Oilseeds and Biodiesel Analyst), Fengxia Dong (International Dairy Analyst), Xiaodong Du (International Livestock and Poultry Analyst), Amani E. Elobeid (International Sugar and Ethanol Analyst), Kranti Mulik (International Grains Analyst). Project specific collaborations included researchers at EPA, Southern Illinois University, North Carolina A&T University, University of Arkansas, Texas Tech University, USDA, and the European Commission-Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy, Renewable Energy Unit. TARGET AUDIENCES: U.S. Congressional committees (e.g., agriculture), various federal and state government agencies (e.g., EPA), policy makers, trade negotiators, commodity organizations (e.g., National Sorghum Producers), researchers, agribusiness and agricultural producers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Budget uncertainties caused some minor project adjustments. A more limited baseline was developed and congressional and USDA staff briefing focused only on the domestic market outlook.
Impacts
The process of model development is almost continuous, with different phases occurring at different times of the year. Regular data update is from October to January. The data in the models are updated to reflect new historical information of prices, costs, macroeconomic variables, policies, and available supply and utilization for all crops, livestock, dairy, and biofuel products in the world. Also, during the baseline exercises, equations in models are changed to better fit the historical data and conform to consensus views on the direction and magnitude of market outcomes. Typically, the latter changes in specification are minor. After completion of the baseline projections, conceptual work is undertaken from April to October using new modeling approaches or estimation techniques to expand and improve the models more fundamentally than is possible during the baseline process. Since research activities are less interrupted during this period, this is the best time to undertake development of models. In the present project cycle, the greenhouse gas (GHG) model development during this period enables FAPRI to trace and estimate GHG emissions derived from associated changes in four categories of land-use type including, forestland, grassland, cropland, and idle cropland. Also, the fertilizer model development has improved FAPRI's estimates of GHG emissions from fertilizer use for agricultural soil management. Moreover, with fertilizer cost now endogenized estimation of intensification effects is improved.
Publications
- Dumortier, J., Hayes, D.J., Carriquiry, M., Dong, F., Du, X., Elobeid, A., Fabiosa, J.F., and Tokgoz, S. 2011. Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change. Applied Econ. Perspectives and Policy 2011:1-21, doi: 10.1093/aepp/ppr015.
- Yu, T. and Babcock, B.A. 2011. Estimating Non-linear Weather Impacts on Corn Yield--A Bayesian Approach. CARD Working Paper 11-WP 522.
- Rosas, F., Babcock, B.A., and Hayes, D.J. 2011. A Nonlinear Offset Program to Reduce Nitrous Oxide Emissions Induced by Excessive Nitrogen Application. CARD Working Paper 11-WP 521.
- Rosas, F. 2011. World Fertilizer Model-The WorldNPK Model. CARD Working Paper 11-WP 520.
- Kauffman, N.S. and Hayes, D.J. 2011. The Trade-off between Bioenergy and Emissions When Land Is Scarce. CARD Working Paper 11-WP 519.
- Du, X., Hayes, D., and Yu, C. 2011. Dynamics of Biofuel Stock Prices: A Bayesian Approach. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93(2):418-425.
- Du, X., Dong, F., Hayes, D., and Brown, T. 2011. Assessment of Environmental Impacts Embodies in U.S.-China and U.S.-India Trade and Related Climate Change Policies. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93(2):537-544.
- Zhao, H., Du, X., and Hennessy, D. 2011. Pass-through in United States Beef Cattle Prices. Empirical Econ. 40(2):497-508.
- Tepe, F., Du, X., and Hennessy, D. 2011. Impact of Biofuels Policy on Agribusiness Stock Prices. Agribusiness 27(2):179-192.
- Du, X, Yu, C., and Hayes, D. 2011. Speculation and Volatility Spillover in the Crude Oil and Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Bayesian Analysis. Energy Econ. 33(3):497-503.
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