Progress 06/01/10 to 05/31/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been fully implemented since 2008. CNAS continued to monitor the trends in agricultural trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada and examine issues which impact this trade. Conducted an analysis of the economic impacts of U.S. agricultural exports on the U.S. and regional economies. Results were published in Choices, the on-line journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. With support from the Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, CNAS completed a study on the impacts of Brazilian port infrastructure improvements on the world cotton industry. This study analyzed the potential impacts of ongoing improvements at the Brazilian port of Santos, how those improvements would impact the use of Brazilian ports for cotton exports, and how the port improvements would affect the global cotton market. Exporting to Cuba workshop conducted in Houston with 35 people attending and focusing on market potential, process and regulation. The North American sorghum model was updated and expanded including separate equations for Sub Saharan Africa and the European Union. A component modeling the Mexican livestock production system has been developed. Two research papers were prepared simulating the impacts on the sorghum system of a) a future increase in the sorghum derived demand from expansion of Sub Saharan Africa import demand, and b) the impacts on sorghum price and exports of a recent expansion of the European Union demand. Results were presented at professional meetings and to sorghum producer groups. Continued international efforts by co-sponsoring the 19th annual Farming for Profit conference held in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, Canada at which CNAS researchers presented information on the new direction of U.S. farm policy. CNAS faculty and staff presented 10 selected papers, 2 symposia and 4 posters at the professional meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in July 2011 and the Southern Agricultural Economics Association in February 2012. The papers focused on the link between financial development and international agricultural trade, exit decisions in U.S. dairy, the impacts of foot and mouth disease on Brazil, structural reforms and agricultural export performance, coffee demand analysis, exchange rate volatility and bilateral agricultural trade flows, impacts of thanol production on the U.S. gasoline market, and performance of U.S. multinational agribusinesses. The posters presented the estimated impacts of relaxing travel and financial restrictions on Cuba, acreage decisions under price/yield risk, the impacts of NAFTA macroeconomic adjustment on U.S. agriculture, and the effects of seafood imports on domestic price. The symposia discussed the economic impacts of exports to Cuba and the impacts of the Panama Canal expansion on world cotton trade. Fifty presentations were made with an estimated attendance of 1,560. The CNAS project website, http://cnas.tamu.edu, is another outlet for research results and was visited 37,571 times from June 2011 to May 2012, resulting in 136,717 hits. PARTICIPANTS: Parr Rosson, PI, Director and Economist, Center for North American Studies, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, College Station, TX. Flynn Adcock, Assistant Director and International Program Coordinator, Center for North American Studies, Texas Agrilife Research, College Sation, TX. Dwi Susanto, Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Center for North American Studies, Texas Agrilife Research, College Sation, TX. Rafael Costa, Graduate Research Assistant, Center for North American Studies, Texas Agrilife Research, College Sation, TX. Joe Pena, Extension Economist, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, Uvalde, TX. Luis Ribera, Extension Economist, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, Weslaco, TX. Marco Palma, Extension Economist, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, College Sation, TX. P. Lynn Kennedy, Professor and Sub-Contractor PI, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. Bryan Hilbun, Research Associate, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. Jaime Malaga, Assistant Professor and Sub-Contractor PI, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX. Pablo Martinez-Mejia, Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX. Terry Crawford, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. William Gorman, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. Rhonda Skaggs, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. Jay Lillywhite, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target Audiences include the following categories: 1. State, Federal, and International Policy Makers such as U.S. Congressional and Senatorial offices, U.S. Department of Agriculture staff, and the Texas Department of Agriculture. 2. State, National, and International Agribusinesses and Associations such as American Farm Bureau Federation, American Sugar Cane League, Border Trade Alliance, U.S. Rice Producers, Texas Beef Council, Texas Grain Sorghum Producers, Independent Cattlemen's Association of Texas, Texas Wheat Association, Texas Agricultural Industries Association, Texas Vegetable Association, Texas Citrus Mutual, Texas Produce Association, Texas Farm Bureau, Louisiana Farm Bureau, Port of Corpus Christi, Port of Beaumont, Port of Freeport, Port of Galveston, Port of New Orleans and Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan. 3. Media including print, radio, television, and Internet-based. 4. Members of the academic community including international agricultural trade economists around the U.S., undergraduate students, and graduate students. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico were $37.4 billion during 2011, accounting for 27 percent of the total, while agricultural imports from NAFTA countries were $34.7 billion, or 37 percent of the total. Two-way agricultural trade with Canada, at $37.9 billion in 2010, has increase 563 percent since 1989 while agricultural trade with Mexico ($34.2 billion) has also increased 563 percent over the same time period. While U.S. agriculture is estimated to receive major economic gains from increased exports, non-agricultural sectors such as business and financial services, real estate, wholesale and retail trade, and health care are also important beneficiaries of U.S. agricultural exports. Direct ocean shipping lines from the port of Salvador in Brazil provide a crucial improvement for transportation infrastructure necessary to increase Brazil's cotton exports. As port improvements are completed and ocean carriers introduce new service, a shift in Brazilian cotton export flows from the port of Santos to the port of Salvador. As a result, there will be an increase in exports and producer revenues. With respect to world cotton trade, the modest increase in exports due to a more efficient port of Salvador made Brazil's cotton industry more competitive. With only one exception, all competing export countries had very modest reductions in exports, prices and revenues with individual the United States and India experiencing the largest declines, particularly at the higher Salvador port cost reduction levels. For instance, at the 10 percent cost reduction levels, U.S. reductions included 4,490 fewer bales exported at a price of $0.28 less per bale and lower cotton export revenues of $5.7 million. Incidentally, the only exception occurred at the two percent cost reduction level when U.S. exports actually grew by 640 bales, price increase by two cents a bale, and revenue increased by $457,900. CNAS staff presented a paper on the impacts of the Panama Canal Expansion on world cotton trade at the Transportation Research Forum held in March 2012. The paper, based upon recent work in partnership with AMS, was awarded the Paper of the Conference.
Publications
- Adhikari, S., J. Malaga, and E. Belasco. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Impacts US Soybean Exports Evidence from a Multi-Country Analysis Framework" Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development. 7(1) 2011.
- Alamo, C. and J. Malaga. "Coffee Differentiation: Demand Analysis at Retail Level in the US market." Proceedings of the Annual Meetings of the Southern Agricultural Economics Association, SAEA, Birmingham Alabama, February 2012. AgEcon Search http://purl.umn.edu/119885
- Costa, Rafael, and C. Parr Rosson, III. The Impacts of the Panama Canal Expansion on World Cotton Trade. Paper presented at The 53rd Annual Transportation Research Forum, March 15-17, 2012 in Tampa, FL. Recipient of Best Paper Award of the forum. Proceeding available at http://www.trforum.org/forum/proceedings.phpyear=2012
- Costa, Rafael, David A. Bessler, and C. Parr Rosson, III. The Impacts of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks in the Brazilian Meat Market. Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, PA. Posted at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/103811.
- Costa, Rafael, Dwi Susanto, and C. Parr Rosson, III. Political Affiliation and Exit Intentions of U.S. Dairy Farms. Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, PA. Paper posted at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/103583.
- Lopez, J., Malaga, J. Belasco, E. and Chidmi, B. "Understanding Mexican Meat Consumption and Imports at table Cut Level." Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development. 7(2) 2012.
- Malaga, J. and P. Martinez-Mejia. "Global Agricultural Markets: Recent Changes and Trends in Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness." Proceedings of the Conference International Conference of Climate Change, Recycling of Agricultural Resources, Technology Improvement and Agricultural Management. pp: 109-119 Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China, January 2012.
- Malaga, J, B. Xu, and. P. Martinez-Mejia "Marketing Promotion of Texas Agricultural Products: The Rural Dimension of the GO TEXAN Program." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 43(3):1:10, 2011.
- Martinez-Mejia.P, and J. Malaga "World Agricultural Markets: Revealed Comparative Advantage and Competitiveness 1995-2009." Proceedings of the International Conference of Economics of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences in the Context of Globalization and Regional Challenges. National University of Life and Environmental Sciences, pp 301-309, CP Kjprint Kiev, Ukraine, 2011. ISNB 978-966-97188-3-9.
- Paggi, Mechel S., C. Parr Rosson, III, Flynn J. Adcock, and Dan Hanselka. "National and Regional Impacts of U.S. Agricultural Exports." Choices, On-line Publication of the American Agricultural Economics Association, 1st Quarter 2011-26(3), www.choicesmagazine.org.
- Rosson, C. Parr, III. The Role of International Trade in Extension Education. The Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 43,3(August 2011):295-299. Southern Agricultural Economics Association. Rosson, C. Parr, III, and Flynn J. Adcock. Emerging Markets for U.S. Agriculture: Focus on Cuba. Texas AgriLife Extension Service Risk Management Publication Number E-312, RM6-9, 10-11, October 2011. Posted at http://cnas.tamu.edu and https://agrilifebookstore.org/publications_details.cfmwhichpublicati on=2991.
- Rosson, Parr, Rebekka Dudensing, Dan Hanselka, Flynn Adcock, and Luis Ribera. Economic Impacts of Closure of the Subtropical Agricultural Research Center in Texas. Center for North American Studies Issue Brief 2011-02, June 16, 2011. Posted at http://cnas.tamu.edu.
- Susanto, Dwi and C. Parr Rosson. "Financial Development and International Trade: An Empirical Analysis." Journal of International Trade and Development. Vol 7, No. 2, 2011, pp. 169-182. NOVA Science Publishers, New York, NY.
- Susanto, Dwi, C. Parr Rosson, III, and Rafael Costa. Financial Development and International Trade: Regional and Sectoral Analysis. Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, PA. Paper posted at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/102647.
- Susanto, Dwi, C. Parr Rosson, and Rafael Costa. Structural Reforms and Agricultural Export Performance: An Empirical Analysis. Paper presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA) Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, AL. Posted at http://cnas.tamu.edu.
|
Progress 06/01/10 to 05/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been fully implemented since 2008. CNAS continues to monitor the trends in agricultural trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada and examine issues which impact this trade. Conducted an analysis of the economic impacts of U.S. agricultural exports on the U.S. and regional economies. Results were published in Choices, the on-line journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. With support from the Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA, CNAS completed a study on the impacts of transportation infrastructure on the U.S. cotton industry. This study analyzed the potential impacts of transportation infrastructure improvements on the U.S. cotton industry, focusing on requirements in Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. Improvements and expansion of the Panama Canal were also analyzed to assess the impacts on cotton shipping patterns in the United States and globally. Exporting to Cuba workshop conducted in Houston with 35 people attending and focusing on market potential, process and regulation. The North American sorghum model was updated and expanded including separate equations for U.S. and of Mexican supply and derived demand of sorghum. A component modeling the Mexican livestock production has been developed. Equations for Japanese and European import demand and price transmissions were augmented. Parameters were jointly re-estimated and the model was validated. Two research papers were prepared simulating the impacts on the sorghum system of a) a future increase in the sorghum derived demand from the US ethanol industry, and b) the impacts on sorghum price and exports of a future decline in Mexican poultry. Results were presented at professional meetings and to sorghum producer groups. Continued international efforts by co-sponsoring the 17th annual Farming for Profit conference held in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, Canada at which CNAS researchers presented information on bottlenecks to international trade and the cap-and-trade legislation. CNAS faculty and staff presented 1 selected paper, 2 symposia and 2 posters at the professional meetings of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association in July 2010 and the Southern Agricultural Economics Association in February 2011. The paper focused on the link between financial development and international agricultural trade while the posters presented the estimated impacts of relaxing travel and financial restrictions on Cuba and the spillover effects of the global financial crisis on Latin America. The symposia the impacts of agricultural trade on the South and the role of economics in plant health protection regulations. Sixty-eight presentations were made with an estimated attendance of 1,213. The CNAS project website, http://cnas.tamu.edu, is another outlet for research results and was visited 34,207 times from June 2010 to May 2011, resulting in 94,638 hits. PARTICIPANTS: Parr Rosson, PI, Director and Economist, Center for North American Studies, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, College Station, TX. Flynn Adcock, Assistant Director and International Program Coordinator, Center for North American Studies, Texas Agrilife Research, College Sation, TX. Dwi Susanto, Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Center for North American Studies, Texas Agrilife Research, College Sation, TX. Rafael Costa, Graduate Research Assistant, Center for North American Studies, Texas Agrilife Research, College Sation, TX. Joe Pena, Extension Economist, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, Uvalde, TX. Luis Ribera, Extension Economist, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, Weslaco, TX. Marco Palma, Extension Economist, Texas Agrilife Extension Service, College Sation, TX. P. Lynn Kennedy, Professor and Sub-Contractor PI, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. Bryan Hilbun, Research Associate, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. Yung-Jae Lee, Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA. Jaime Malaga, Assistant Professor and Sub-Contractor PI, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX. Pablo Martinez-Mejia, Post-Doctoral Research Associate, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX. Terry Crawford, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. William Gorman, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. Rhonda Skaggs, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. Jay Lillywhite, Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target Audiences include the following categories: 1. State, Federal, and International Policy Makers such as U.S. Congressional and Senatorial offices, U.S. Department of Agriculture staff, and the Texas Department of Agriculture. 2. State, National, and International Agribusinesses and Associations such as American Farm Bureau Federation, American Sugar Cane League, Border Trade Alliance, U.S. Rice Producers, Texas Beef Council, Texas Grain Sorghum Producers, Independent Cattlemen's Association of Texas, Texas Wheat Association, Texas Agricultural Industries Association, Texas Vegetable Association, Texas Citrus Mutual, Texas Produce Association, Texas Farm Bureau, Louisiana Farm Bureau, Port of Corpus Christi, Port of Beaumont, Port of Freeport, Port of Galveston, Port of New Orleans and Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan. 3. Media including print, radio, television, and Internet-based. 4. Members of the academic community including international agricultural trade economists around the U.S., undergraduate students, and graduate students. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
U.S. agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico were $31.5 billion during 2010, accounting for 27 percent of the total, while agricultural imports from NAFTA countries were $29.8 billion, or 36 percent of the total. Two-way agricultural trade with Canada, at $33.1 billion in 2010, has increase 537 percent since 1989 while agricultural trade with Mexico ($28.2 billion) has increased 464 percent over the same time period. While U.S. agriculture receives major economic gains from increased exports, non-agricultural sectors such as business and financial services, real estate, wholesale and retail trade, and health care are also important beneficiaries of U.S. agricultural exports. In calendar year 2009, U.S. agricultural exports of $98.4 billion were supported by $280.5 billion in output in sectors throughout the economy and 1.56 million jobs. About 45 percent of these impacts accrued to non-agricultural and food sectors such as manufacturing, service, and trade and transportation. About 49 percent of the output impacts are in the Midwest while 25 percent are in the South. However, 39 percent of the employment impacts are in the Midwest with 32 percent in the South. China was the largest market for U.S. cotton in 2010, accounting for 35 percent of all U.S. cotton exports. Turkey, Mexico, Indonesia and Vietnam accounted for 34 percent of U.S. cotton exports. Los Angeles/Long Beach, Savannah, Houston and Laredo are the major ports through which the majority of U.S. cotton was exported. The United States is forecast to export 15.75 million bales of cotton in 2011, representing about 87 percent of the cotton crop. The completion of the Panama Canal expansion (PCE) in 2014 has major implications for altered shipping patterns throughout the United States. These results assume a 28 percent reduction in ocean transportation rates for cotton shipments to Asian markets attributed to the PCE. Estimated cotton export gains for the Gulf, South Atlantic and Texas ports will come at the expense of the West Coast ports. Cotton exports from Los Angeles/Long Beach are estimated to decline 72 percent to 1.8 million bales, while export volumes from Oakland would be down marginally to 385,000 bales.
Publications
- Adhikari, S., J. Malaga, and E. Belasco. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Impacts US Soybean Exports Evidence from a Multi-Country Analysis Framework" Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development. 7(1) Forthcoming 2011.
- Costa, Rafael, Francisco Fraire, John Robinson, Steve Fuller, and C. Parr Rosson, III. The Impacts of the Panama Canal Expansion on World Cotton Trade. Paper presented at the 52nd Annual Transportation Research Forum, March 10-12, 2011, Long Beach, California.
- Costa, Rafael, Dwi Susanto, and C. Parr Rosson, III. "The Structure of U.S. Red Meat and Fish Imports." Paper presented at the conference: International Food and Agribusiness Management Association - IAMA. June 19-22, 2010, Boston, USA.
- Falk, C. L. and P. Pao. 2010. "Oasis at New Mexico State University," Farm Out, in press, University Press of Kentucky.
- Malaga, J., S. Pan and T. Duch-Carvallo. "Mexican Meat Demand Parameters Before and After NAFTA: Evidence from Household Surveys, 1992-2004." Journal of Food Distribution Research 41(3):75-83. November 2010.
- Malaga, J, B. Xu, and. P. Martinez-Mejia "Marketing Promotion of Texas Agricultural Products: The Rural Dimension of the GO TEXAN Program." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 43(3):1:10, 2011.
- Malaga, J, and G.W. Williams. "Mexican Agricultural and Food Export Competitiveness." Forthcoming at Revista Mexicana de Agronegocios, 2010.
- Martinez-Mejia, P. and J. Malaga. "The Effect of Ethanol Production on Coarse Grains: New Price Relationships."Journal of Agribusiness. 27 (1-2): 33-47, 2010.
- Paggi, Mechel S., C. Parr Rosson, III., Flynn J. Adcock, and Dan Hanselka. "National and Regional Impacts of U.S. Agricultural Exports." Choices, On-line Publication of the American Agricultural Economics Association, 1st Quarter 2011-26(3), www.choicesmagazine.org.
- Pan, S., Malaga, J., and X. He. "Market Liberalization and Crop Planting Decisions: A Case of China." China Agricultural Economic Review (3), 2010.
- Rosson, Parr, Flynn Adcock, Dan Hanselka, Marco Palma, and Luis Ribera. Economic Impacts of Losing the Fruit Fly Trapping Program. Center for North American Studies Issue Brief 2011-01, March 10, 2011. To be posted at http://cnas.tamu.edu.
- Rosson, Parr and Flynn Adcock. U.S. Agricultural Production Affected by Mexican Tariffs. Center for North American Studies Issue Brief 2011-02, March 17, 2011. To be posted at http://cnas.tamu.edu.
- Rosson, Parr, Flynn J. Adcock, Rafael Costa, and John Robinson. Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure on the U.S. Cotton Industry. CNAS Publication Number 2011-01. May 2011. http://cnas.tamu.edu.
- Susanto, Dwi, C. Parr Rosson, Flynn J. Adcock, and David P. Anderson. "Impact of Foreign Hired Labor on Milk Production and Herd Size in the United States." 2010 Journal of ASFMRA, Vol 24, No. 2, June 2010 pp. 63-73. American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers. www.asfmra.com.
|