Progress 01/15/10 to 01/14/15
Outputs
Target Audience: The paper "Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach" by Dodder, R.S., Kaplan, O., Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., Secchi, S., Kurkalova, L. was presented at the International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). New York City, NY. June 15-18, 2014. The International Association for Energy Economics targets a wide audience including business, government, academic and other professionals concerned with energy and related issues in the international community. Additionally, components of the study were presented in the following conferences, which are well attended by agricultural and applied economists as well as individuals interested in conservation and the environment: Secchi, S., L.A. Kurkalova, and O. Quaicoe, "The costs of continuous conservation tillage", selected paper: presented at Midwest Economics Association annual meeting, Evanston, IL, 03/2014 Kurkalova, L.A., and L. Carter, "Economic and environmental benefits of using mobile technology to assess corn crop moisture: an empirical assessment", selected paper: presented at Southern Economic Association annual conference, Atlanta, GA, 11/2014 Kurkalova, L.A., and D.Q. Tran, "Estimation of Markov transition matrixes with aggregate data: an application to modeling conservation tillage frequency", selected paper: accepted for presentation at MEA annual meeting, Minneapolis, MN, 03/2015 The CARD working paper "Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer" by Dodder, Elobeid, Johnson, Kaplan, Kurkalova, Secchi and Tokgoz [11-WP 526] continues to be posted on the CARD website, which is frequently visited by researchers, farmers, policymakers, government agencies, and laypersons interested in agriculture, food, biofuels, the environment and related policy analyses. Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has continued to improve the principal investigators' understanding of the interaction between energy, agriculture and the environment in the context of biofuels, further enhancing courses taught by co-PI Secchi at Southern Illinois University (courses in Agribusiness Economics as well as Energy Economics and Policy) adn co-PI Kurkalova at North Carolina A&T State University (courses in energy and environmental economics and policy). Additionally, the better understanding of the feedback between the two sectors has informed additonal modeling efforts by the PI Elobeid. Two graduates students have also benefited by acquiring knowledge and modeling skills from the project as follows: 1) Dat Q. Tran, Ph.D. student in NCA&T State University Energy and Environmental Systems Program has successfully defended his dissertation proposal, "Entropy Approaches: An Application to Estimation of the Dynamics of Tillage Choice In Iowa," 12/201l4. Major Professor: L.A. Kurkalova, Dissertation Committee member: S. Secchi. 2) Kingsley Bonsu, Ph.D. student in NCA&T State University Computational Science and Engineering Program, has successfully passed his preliminary exams, 12/2014. Preliminary dissertation topic: "Comparison of gasification, pyrolysis, and biological conversion bioenergy technologies: economic analysis using integrated energy-agricultural sector modeling systems." Major Professor: L.A. Kurkalova How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? In addition to two journal articles, the work based on this project has been presented in the following conferences: 1) Secchi, S., L.A. Kurkalova, and O. Quaicoe, "The costs of continuous conservation tillage", selected paper: presented at MEA annual meeting, Evanston, IL, 03/2014 2) Kurkalova, L.A., and L. Carter, "Economic and environmental benefits of using mobile technology to assess corn crop moisture: an empirical assessment", selected paper: presented at SEA annual conference, Atlanta, GA, 11/2014 3) Kurkalova, L.A., and D.Q. Tran, "Estimation of Markov transition matrixes with aggregate data: an application to modeling conservation tillage frequency", selected paper: accepted for presentation at MEA annual meeting, Minneapolis, MN, 03/2015 4) Dodder, R.S., Kaplan, O., Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., Secchi, S., Kurkalova, L., Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach. Presentation for International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). New York City, NY. June 15-18, 2014 What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The main objective of this project was to examine the feedbacks between agriculture, energy and the environment in the context of biofuel expansion. This has been accomplished through the successful linkage of the CARD U.S. agricultural model to the EPA's MARKAL energy systems model and the micro-level model. Once the linkage was completed, a baseline was established. The first work published in Environmental Modeling and Software showed that analyzing the impacts of biofuel expansion without allowing for feedbacks between energy and agriculture can lead to an overestimation of these impacts. The second paper, under review in Energy Economics, used the integrated modeling system to analyze a baseline and three alternative scenarios: two scenarios based on energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) and one based on assumptions regarding cellulosic biomass availability. By examining the impact of scenarios driven by (a) changes in the energy sector and (b) changes in the agricultural sector, the study compared the differential effects on biofuels markets, commodity prices and quantities in each sector, and CO2 emissions. Scenario comparisons showed biofuel markets affected more by crude oil prices than natural gas prices. However, higher natural gas prices shifted the biofuel production mix away from corn-grain based to more cellulosic ethanol via multiple mechanisms. Alternatively, the scenario with no cellulosic feedstock lowered total ethanol production, and raised ethanol and corn prices. In terms of environmental impacts, higher ethanol levels driven by higher oil prices led to lower CO2emissions. In comparison, the no cellulosic scenario resulted in thehighest CO2trajectoryrelative to the baseline. The third phase, a paper titled "The Potential of No Till Carbon Offsets as a Climate Mitigation Strategy", used the results from the integrated agricultural and energy models in the micro-level model to investigate the potential of Continuous No Till (CNT) as a climate mitigation tool for a major agricultural area, Iowa. Since most of Iowa is privately owned cropland, the study simulated the farmers' decision making by assuming they choose the fertilizer rate, crop/rotation and tillage that maximize profits. GIS land use layers combined with soil maps were used to determine agricultural productivity potential. The integrated modeling framework provided estimates of the cost effectiveness of no till carbon offsets using a range of Soil Organic Carbon sequestration potentials from the literature. The study projected that, under current conditions, a $25/hectare payment would enroll about 1 million additional hectares into continuous no till, resulting in a program cost of over $27 million, and over 10 million Mt of carbon sequestered. In the future, to achieve a comparable level of carbon sequestration would require payments of $40/hectare, which will result in program costs of $37 million a year. These results suggest that CNT payments are a potential low cost climate change mitigation strategy, particularly as a short term bridge until other tools become cost-competitive.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Rebecca S. Dodder, P. Ozge Kaplan, Amani Elobeid, Simla Tokgoz, Silvia Secchi, and Lyubov A. Kurkalova. "Impact of energy prices and cellulosic biomass supply on agriculture, energy and the environment: an integrated modeling approach." Energy Economics (Revise and Resubmit)
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Under Review
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Kurkalova, L.A., and L. Carter. "Mobile technology and sustainable production: using the resource-based view to assess the value of a Green IT artifact." Information Systems Research, submitted 12/2014.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Other
Year Published:
2015
Citation:
Secchi, Kurkalova, Elobeid, Tokgoz, Dodder, Kaplan. "The Potential of No Till Carbon Offsets as a Climate Mitigation Strategy." Environmental Economics.
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Progress 01/15/13 to 01/14/14
Outputs
Target Audience: Within the past year, the integrated modeling framework developed to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion on the agricultural and energy markets and the environment has been published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Modeling and Software (Elobeid, A., S. Tokgoz, R. Dodder, T. Johnson, O. Kaplan, L. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi. “Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment.” Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 48, October 2013, Pages 1–16.). This journal focuses on the behavior of environmental systems at all practical levels and is accessed by a wide scientific and professional audience. Part of the lessons learned in this project also appears in the on-line peer-reviewed magazine Choices, which targets readers interested in agriculture and the environment. Since Choices conveys research in a non-technical format, the magazine is read by a wide variety of interested parties including farmers, agricultural consultants, and policymakers as well as individuals in industry and government agencies interested in agriculture, food, and the environment. Also, the December 2011 CARD working paper “Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer” by Dodder, Elobeid, Johnson, Kaplan, Kurkalova, Secchi and Tokgoz [11-WP 526], which was posted on the CARD website, has been accessed over 80 times between January and April 2013 (and over 640 times since it was first posted in December 2011). The CARD website is frequently visited by researchers, farmers, policymakers, government agencies, and laypersons interested in agricultural, food, biofuel, and environmental policy analyses. Additionally, ISU’s CARD agricultural model inputs for the baseline have been incorporated as a key part of EPA's characterization of the biomass and biofuels sector in the EPA U.S. nine-region (EPAUS9r) MARKAL database. The database had a major update in 2012 using CARD inputs as well as AEO 2012 input data from the NEMS model. The EPAUS9r documentation was finished in 2012 but approved in 2013 as an official EPA report (Lenox, C., Dodder, R., Gage, C., Kaplan, O., Loughlin, D., and W. Yelverton. 2012 EPA U.S. Nine Region MARKAL Database, Database Documentation (EPA/600/B-13/203). Air Pollution Prevention and Control Division, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency). The database is publically available and used by universities, NGOs, and other federal laboratories and agencies. Changes/Problems: The Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) has experienced severe budget cuts in the past couple of years that have resulted in major changes in staffing and responsibilities. These changes have delayed some of the progress in the project. Additionally, the micro-level analysis requires the use of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model, which requires additional time because of the lack of good model documentation. However, we are confident that we will complete all tasks by the end of the extended deadline. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? The project has improved one faculty member's understanding of the energy economics literature and has therefore informed and improved her teaching of ABE (Agribusiness Economics) 442 - Energy Economics and Policy (Dr. Secchi at Southern Illinois University). Additionally, a graduate student is gaining knowledge about and application of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. The project has also enhanced the understanding and teaching material of another faculty member of the energy and environmental economics and policy courses, EES 711 and EES 712, in the Energy and Environmental Systems interdisciplinary Ph.D. program at North Carolina A&T State University (Dr. Kurkalova). The linkage between agriculture and energy has also informed EPA's collaborators on the project and has resulted in the incorporation of this knowledge of the agricultural sector into the biomass and biofuels sector of EPA's U.S. nine-region (EPAUS9r) MARKAL database. Furthermore, more in-depth analysis of the linkage between energy and agriculture has resulted in a better understanding of the feedback between the two sectors and ways to incorporate this feedback into the U.S. agricultural model (Dr. Elobeid). Both the PI and a graduate student have gained knowledge through a review of the available literature on the co-movement of crude oil and commodity prices and the co-integration of natural gas and crude oil markets. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? In addition to the journal publications listed and the ongoing CARD website traffic accessed by communities of interest, the field-level model and its applications have been presented at the following conferences and workshops: Kurkalova, L.A., and O. Quaicoe, "Costs of continuous conservation tillage in Iowa," (presented by O. Quaicoe), Missouri Valley Economic Association 50th Annual Meeting, Kansas City, MO, 10/2013. Wade, T., L.A. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi, "Modeling field level conservation tillage adoption with aggregate choice data," invited presentation: Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 10/2013. Wade, T., L.A. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi, "Estimation of discrete choice models with aggregate data: an application to the adoption of conservation tillage," invited presentation: University of Texas Pan American, Edinburgh, TX, 09/2013. Secchi, S., and L.A. Kurkalova, "Estimating the cost of supplying greenhouse gas offsets with continuous conservation tillage," invited presentation: USDA/ERS workshop "Agricultural markets for ecosystem services", Washington, DC, 08/2013. Wade, T., L.A. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi, "Estimation of discrete choice models with aggregate data: an application to the adoption of conservation tillage," invited presentation: USDA/ERS workshop "Agricultural markets for ecosystem services", Washington, DC, 08/2013. Wade, T., L.A. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi, "Using statistics to estimate conservation tillage costs," invited presentation: NRCS/USDA, East National Technology Support Center, Greensboro, NC, 01/2013. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? In addition to the energy shocks, the models will also be used to analyze the impact of biofuel policies on agricultural and energy markets, as well as the corresponding environmental consequences, especially in the context of the expansion of biomass feedstocks for biofuel production. These results will provide valuable information to stakeholders in the agricultural, biofuel and energy sectors. The timeline below details the pending work. Timeline October 2013 Complete work on the energy shock paper to be submitted to Energy Policy. November 2013 Incorporate the results of the energy shocks from the CARD and MARKAL models into the micro-level model. December 2013 Continue micro-level work on the environmental analysis of the energy shock including the use of the EPIC model. January 2014 Complete the micro-level analysis and begin writing the paper on the environmental results. Develop the policy scenarios to be incorporated into the CARD and MARKAL model (These could include a change in the biofuel policy (e.g., mandates and waivers), environmental policy (carbon-saving tax credit to ethanol plants), and farm policy (CRP policy allowing cellulosic crops to grow on CRP land).). February 2014 Complete micro-level paper and submit to peer-reviewed journal. March – May 2014 Implement the policy scenarios and run the CARD and MARKAL models. (Make revisions to the paper if needed for resubmission.) June – July 2014 Assess results from the CARD and MARKAL model runs (including sensitivity analyses). (Rerun of models if results warrant modifications.) August – October 2014 Incorporate results from the policy scenarios in the micro level model. November 2014 Assess micro-level results and start drafting policy scenario paper. December 2014 – January 2015 Complete paper on the result of the policy scenarios and submit to peer-reviewed journal. (Make revisions to the paper if needed for resubmission.)
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
The objective of this project is to examine the feedbacks between agriculture, energy and the environment in the context of biofuel expansion. Many of the tasks have been completed as outlined below. Specifically, the CARD U.S. agricultural model has been successfully linked to the EPA’s MARKAL energy systems model and a micro (field)-level model. During the first phase of the project, the models were integrated and a baseline established. The modeling efforts of this work have been published in the peer-reviewed journal Environmental Modeling and Software. Results confirm the hypothesis that analyzing the impacts of biofuel expansion without allowing for the feedbacks between energy and agriculture could lead to overestimation of these impacts. The next phase of the project included using the integrated modeling system to run two scenarios where energy prices (crude oil and natural gas) are increased to examine the impact on agricultural and energy markets from the resulting increased production of biofuels. This outcome of this work is documented in a completed paper that will be submitted to the journal Energy Policy. Results show the following: crude oil prices have a pronounced effect on biofuels markets and overall feedstock demand; increased penetration of flex-fuel vehicles occurs; there are substantial differences in how demand for additional ethanol is met via a mix of corn-based ethanol and cellulosic ethanol between the two scenarios. The results of the energy shocks are currently being utilized in the micro-level model, which will analyze the environmental impacts at the field level. This analysis will utilize the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. A third paper is expected based on the output of the micro-model.
Publications
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Elobeid, A., S. Tokgoz, R. Dodder, T. Johnson, O. Kaplan, L. Kurkalova, and S. Secchi. Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment. Environmental Modelling & Software, Volume 48, October 2013, Pages 116.
- Type:
Journal Articles
Status:
Published
Year Published:
2013
Citation:
Secchi, Silvia. Integrated Modeling for Conservation Policy Support. Choices, 3rd Quarter 2013. Available at http://www.choicesmagazine.org/choices-magazine/theme-articles/innovations-in-nonpoint-source-pollution-policy/integrated-modeling-for-conservation-policy-support
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Progress 01/15/12 to 01/14/13
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The objective of this project is to examine the feedbacks between agriculture, energy and the environment in the context of biofuel expansion. This is achieved by linking the CARD U.S. agricultural model, the EPA's MARKAL energy systems model and a micro (field)-level model. At this phase of the project, after integrating the models and establishing a baseline, a scenario was run where crude oil prices were increased by 25% to examine the impact on agricultural and energy markets. The model integration and scenario runs have relied on communications between the project participants in the form of weekly conference calls as well as data and document exchanges. A second scenario, which includes an increase in both natural gas and crude oil prices, is currently being run. In addition to the energy shocks, the models will be used to analyze the impact of various biofuel policies on agricultural and energy markets, as well as the corresponding environmental consequences, especially in the context of the expansion of biomass feedstocks for biofuel production. These results will provide valuable information to stakeholders in the agricultural, biofuel and energy sectors. The results have been and will continue to be disseminated through conference presentations, working papers and peer-reviewed journal articles as well as posted on the CARD website, which has a large, diverse audience. The outputs from the macro models are utilized in the micro-level model, which analyzes the environmental impacts at the field level. This task is performed by Lyubov Kurkalova and Silvia Secchi. Since the last report, a number of improvements have been made to the micro-level model. The enhancements of the model, developed by Randall (2012, Ph.D. dissertation), allowed detailed, consistent modeling of land use and energy use implications of changes in energy prices for the major U.S. agricultural production region, the state of Iowa. The methodological contribution of the study is in developing an integrated economic and geographic modeling system that combines newly available, field-level, GIS-based soil and cropping historical data with the latest advances in soil and crop sciences' understanding of the response of crop yields to rotation, tillage, and nitrogen applications. The empirical contribution is in evaluation of the adjustments in rotation, tillage, crop yield, and nitrogen fertilizer use for a range of plausible energy price changes. Additionally, results from the integrated MARKAL-CARD data exchanges were incorporated as part of a major update of the U.S. EPA's national (USNM) and nine-region (US9r) databases MARKAL energy system model, which is calibrated to the 2012 Annual Energy Outlook. The updated inputs from the CARD model provide harmonized agricultural sector inputs for key biomass feedstocks and biofuel co-products. This database is publicly available via an EPA project site (Environmental Science Connector) that includes over 75 national and international MARKAL database users from universities, non-governmental organizations, as well as users from Argonne and other national labs. PARTICIPANTS: The participants of this project include: Amani Elobeid (PI), Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University; Silvia Secchi, Department of Agribusiness Economics, Southern Illinois University; and Lyubov Kurkalova, Department of Economics and Finance, Energy and Environmental Systems Program, North Carolina A&T State University. We also collaborated with Rebecca Dodder and Ozge Kaplan of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We have also collaborated with a researcher from the International Food and Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The project provided multiple opportunities for both graduate and undergraduate students at NCA&T State University to actively participate in research. Three students were directly involved with the project as research assistants: Ph.D. students Steven Randall and Obed Quaicoe, both NCA&T State University, EES program, and one undergraduate student: Alissa Barlow, NCA&T, School of Business and Economics. Additional opportunity for professional development has been provided for the co-PI Kurkalova. In the spring 2013, Kurkalova will attend a Case Studies in Science Summer Workshop being held at the University at Buffalo, State University of New York, to learn how to convert the research findings of the project to teaching materials for both undergraduate and graduate classes. TARGET AUDIENCES: This project targets parties interested in the impact of biofuels on agriculture, energy and the environment and the interconnectedness between the three. The target audiences include policymakers, academics, industry stakeholders and experts in the areas of agriculture, energy and bioenergy, as well as the environment. Major collaborators of this project are scientists from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and given that EPA plays a major role in Federal biofuels policy, the results will be of great interest and value to Federal and State agencies responsible for the development and implementation of biofuel policies. The project outcomes will also be of interest to modelers who are interested in the technical aspect of integrating structurally different models. The results will be presented at professional and policy-oriented conferences and published in scholarly journals. Results will also be disseminated through CARD technical reports available on the CARD's website, which have a wide audience including farmers and farm groups that are interested in the production of both first and second generation feedstocks and their implications for their production systems, individuals associated with environmental and energy groups as well as the biofuel industry, which is interested in the potential locations of biofuel processing plants. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The outcome of the work is the scenario analyses in the form of energy price shocks and policy changes, which will provide information on policy implications for a variety of stakeholders. From this scenario work, a paper is being drafted to outline the energy price shocks and results. The scenario analyses aim to highlight the importance of incorporating the interactions between energy and agricultural markets, and investigate specifically how this interaction influences the development of the market for biomass feedstocks. At the micro-level, the project's aim is to offer information on the unintended environmental consequences in using agricultural residue as a biofuel feedstock and to put forth policy recommendations to mitigate the environmental impacts. In terms of the overall outcome of this project, the results of the scenarios will provide stakeholders with additional, more accurate information about the impact of biofuels on the agricultural and energy sectors, and the environment. With changes in energy prices, the integration of the macro models mitigates the impact of the higher prices on the agricultural and biofuel sectors. The micro-level model finds that as energy prices increase, the changes towards fewer years of corn in rotations, less intensive tillage, and lower nitrogen rates progress gradually from the lower- to the higher-quality land. In terms of the MARKAL model, the results of this work have supported the development of the characterization of biomass feedstock and biofuels economics (such as the role of co-products and biofuels imports and exports) in ORD's MARKAL energy system database and model. The improved modeling capability is supporting a number of in-house research projects in the EPA's Office of Research and Development, including a project under the Air, Climate and Energy (ACE) National Research Project which is assessing the environmental impact of alternative scenarios for the use of biomass in different sectors.
Publications
- Randall, S. 2012. Land use and energy use implications of the changes in energy prices. Ph.D. dissertation, Energy and Environmental Systems.
- Kurkalova, L.A., S.M. Randall and S. Secchi. 2012. The impact of energy price changes on cropping patterns in Iowa. selected paper: SEA annual conference, New Orleans, LA, 11/2012.
- Kurkalova, L.A., S.M. Randall and S. Secchi. 2012. Energy price changes, cropping patterns, and energy use in agriculture: empirical assessment. selected paper: IAEE annual conference: Austin, TX, 11/2012.
- Kurkalova, L.A. 2012. Growing corn for food and fuel: a joint production perspective. selected paper: AEF annual conference, Charleston, SC, 02/2012.
- Secchi S. 2012. Integrating biofuel production and mitigation strategies into agricultural landscapes. Bioenergy and Biodiversity: Oxymoron or Opportunity Symposium at the Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting, 5-10 August, Portland, Oregon.
- Pamela Schultz. 2012. Impact of Technology and Feedstock Choice on the Environmental Footprint of Biofuels. Poster Presentation. American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2012 Fall Meeting. December 3-7, 2012, San Francisco.
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Progress 01/15/11 to 01/14/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The main objective of this project is to further advance knowledge of the emerging market for biomass feedstocks, by looking at this market within the context of: (1) the broader agricultural market, (2) the broader energy market, and (3) the impacts on land productivity and the environment. To accomplish this objective, the study aims to examine the feedbacks between the agricultural and energy sectors as well as the environmental impacts of biofuels through field-level production decisions responding to more tightly coupled energy and agricultural markets. As outlined in the previous annual report, we were successful in linking the CARD U.S. agricultural model to EPA's MARKAL energy systems model and establishing an integrated baseline. After examining the results, we continued to improve on the linkages between the two models to achieve a reasonable baseline as a basis for upcoming scenario runs. These scenarios are used to analyze the impact of both first-generation and cellulosic biofuel expansion on agricultural and energy markets as well as at the farm-level. The product of this work is documented in the Elobeid et al. paper listed under publications in this report. A conceptual paper (Dodder et al.), included in the previous annual report, has been completed and disseminated in the form of a CARD working paper on the CARD website, which is accessible to a wide range of readers. Weekly conference calls between the project participants as well as email exchanges have been the vehicles by which the work has been accomplished. Additionally, Amani Elobeid (from CARD) met with Lyubov Kurkalova (from NCAT) and Silvia Secchi (from SIU) in Ames, Iowa in February 2011 to discuss and resolve issues regarding the linkage of the macro- and micro-level components. The outcome of the micro-level work was presented in the form of two presented papers and a poster in three conferences with a large, diverse audience. Also, the CARD baseline data is now incorporated in EPA's base database for MARKAL US9r, which has a wide audience including a large number of university users. The EPA team also participates in a number of internal EPA work groups related to the Renewable Fuel Standards, and has been able to utilize the information and results from this project regarding agriculture and energy in the work of the internal groups. PARTICIPANTS: The participants of this project include: Amani Elobeid (PI), Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University; Silvia Secchi, Department of Agribusiness Economics, Southern Illinois University; and Lyubov Kurkalova, Department of Economics and Finance, Energy and Environmental Systems Program, North Carolina A&T State University. We also collaborated with Tim Johnson, Rebecca Dodder, and Ozge Kaplan of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Through this project, graduate students at Iowa State University, University of Southern Illinois and North Carolina A&T State University were provided opportunities to work on the project. At NCAT State, this included the following: Ph.D. dissertation: S.M. Randall, "Agricultural land use and energy use implications of the changes in energy prices," in progress, expected Spring 2012, Ph.D. in Energy and Environmental Systems, interdisciplinary, major professor: L.A. Kurkalova. M.S. thesis: M. Oumarou Sidibe, "Building and implementing an Access-based computational system for estimating conditional production possibilities frontier," NCA&T, Department of Economics and Finance, Computational Science and Engineering interdisciplinary M.S. program, Summer 2011, adviser: L.A. Kurkalova. Undergraduate Honors project: A. Lusompa, "Micro-level estimation of the costs of crop production," NCA&T, Department of Economics and Finance, undergraduate Honors project, ECON 412 (Quantitative Economics) Fall 2011, adviser: L.A. Kurkalova. We continue to collaborate with a researcher, Dr. Simla Tokgoz, from the International Food and Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). TARGET AUDIENCES: This project targets parties interested in the impact of biofuels on agriculture, energy and the environment and the interconnectedness among the three. The target audiences include policymakers, academics, industry stakeholders and experts in the areas of agriculture, energy and bioenergy, as well as the environment. Major collaborators of this project are scientists from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and given that EPA plays a major role in Federal biofuels policy, the results will be of great interest and value to federal and state agencies responsible for the development and implementation of biofuel policies. The results will be presented at professional and policy-oriented conferences and published in scholarly journals. Results will also be disseminated through CARD technical reports available on CARD's website, which have a wide audience including farmers and farm groups that are interested in the production of both first and second generation feedstocks and their implications for their production systems, individuals associated with environmental and energy groups as well as the biofuel industry, which is interested in the potential locations of biofuel processing plants. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The main outcomes of this project are linking the agricultural and energy models, establishing an integrated baseline and running policy scenarios. At the macro-level, the aim is to analyze the impact of biofuels within an integrated energy and agricultural system, and to investigate how this interaction influences the development of the market for biomass feedstocks. At the micro-level, the project's aim is to determine the economic viability of agricultural residue as a biofuel feedstock, and whether there are unintended environmental consequences in using this feedstock, and ultimately, to put forth policy recommendations to mitigate the environmental impacts. A paper titled "Integration of agricultural and energy system models for biofuel assessment," which documents the process of linking the two models, has been completed and submitted to the journal Agricultural Systems. This paper illustrates the importance of integrating the two systems for a more accurate analysis as well as insights into the dynamics of the coupled markets. A more conceptual CARD working paper, which provides the foundation for the CARD and MARKAL model integration, titled "Environmental impacts of emerging biomass feedstock markets: energy, agriculture, and the farmer" was posted on the CARD website. The next step is to use the integrated modeling system to run policy scenarios in order to inform policy makers and stakeholders on the implications of these policies. One scenario that has been determined is the impact on both the agricultural and energy sectors of the removal of the biofuel tax credits. The analysis will also include the impact on the environment at the farm level. In terms of the overall outcome of this project, the results of the integrated baseline and the scenarios will provide stakeholders with additional, more accurate information about the impact of biofuels on the agricultural and energy sectors, and the environment. This is achieved by linking the agricultural and energy models as the two models independently tend to overestimate the impact of biofuels.
Publications
- Elobeid, A., Tokgoz, S., Dodder, R., Johnson, T., Kurkalova, L.A. 2011. Supply of traditional crops under emerging biomass feedstock markets. Selected paper: SEA annual conference, Washington, DC.
- Dodder, R.C., Elobeid, A., Johnson, T.L., Kaplan, P.O., Kurkalova, L.A., Secchi, S. and Tokgoz, S. 2011. Land-use impacts of emerging biomass feedstock markets: accounting for agricultural and energy market interactions and the variability of local conditions. Selected paper: 2011 AERE inaugural conference, Seattle, WA.
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Progress 01/15/10 to 01/14/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: This project is a comprehensive study examining feedbacks between agricultural production, energy supply, and environmental quality. In order to better understand feedbacks between energy supply and agricultural production in the context of biofuel expansion, we have improved and finalized the linking of the CARD U.S. agricultural model to EPA's MARKAL energy systems model in order to endogenize previously exogenous energy variables in the CARD model and agricultural variables in the MARKAL model. Additionally, we have incorporated stover-based cellulosic ethanol production in the CARD model and enhanced cellulosic biomass feedstock and related ethanol production components of the EPA MARKAL energy system model. We have established a joint Baseline accomplished through the linkage of the two models and convergence in ethanol volumes between the models. This work has been achieved through numerous communications between the project participants including conference calls, face-to-face meetings and data exchanges. The EPA/MARKAL team met with Amani Elobeid (CARD), Simla Tokgoz (IFPRI), Lyubov Kurkalova (NCAT), and Silvia Secchi (SIU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in June 2010 where issues regarding model linkage were solved and the work on generating a Baseline began. Lyubov Kurkalova and Silvia Secchi have also been involved in the conference calls to discuss the linkage between CARD, MARKAL, and micro-level analysis. Based on these discussions, the process of data exchange was determined. The path to convergence involved several data exchanges between the two models as well as necessary changes and adjustments in both models. The linked models will be used to run a number of scenarios to analyze the impact of increased biofuel production from agricultural feedstocks in general, and cellulosic feedstocks in particular, on the agricultural and energy markets, as well as determine environmental consequences at the field level. These results will provide valuable information to stakeholders in the agricultural and biofuel sectors and will be disseminated through conference presentations, working papers and peer-reviewed journal articles as well as posted on the CARD website, which has a large, diverse audience. PARTICIPANTS: The participants of this project include: Amani Elobeid (PI), Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD), Iowa State University; Silvia Secchi, Department of Agribusiness Economics, Southern Illinois University; and Lyubov Kurkalova, Department of Economics and Finance, Energy and Environmental Systems Program, North Carolina A&T State University. We also collaborated with Tim Johnson, Rebecca Dodder, and Ozge Kaplan of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Through this project, two graduate students at ISU were provided the opportunity to work on model development, specifically the incorporation of a cellulosic ethanol component into the CARD agricultural model. The EPA team also provided an opportunity for a graduate student from UC-Berkeley do some work on the project (although not paid by the grant). TARGET AUDIENCES: Given the widespread interest in the impact of biofuels on agriculture and the environment, this project will have a large target audience including but not limited to policymakers and experts in the areas of agriculture, energy and the environment. Additionally, this project is being conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Since EPA plays a major role in Federal biofuels policy, the results will be of great interest and value to federal and state agencies responsible for the development and implementation of biofuel policies. The results will be presented at professional and policy-oriented conferences and published in scholarly journals. Results will also be disseminated through CARD technical reports available on the CARD website, which have a wide audience including farmers and farm groups that are interested in the production of both first and second generation feedstocks and their implications for their production systems, individuals associated with environmental and energy groups as well as the biofuel industry, which is interested in the potential locations of biofuel processing plants. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
The outcome of the work so far is the establishment of the integrated Baseline linking both the energy and agricultural sectors. This outcome will facilitate the development and analysis of policy scenarios, which will provide information on policy implications for a variety of stakeholders. From this work, a working paper titled "Linking up agricultural and energy systems models for modeling of biofuels production from agricultural feedstocks", which documents the process of linking the two models, has been drafted. Another paper has been written discussing how field-level production decisions responding to more tightly coupled energy-agricultural markets ultimately determine the environmental impacts of biofuels. The paper also discusses the necessity of model linkages to answer this question and the philosophy behind linking CARD and MARKAL model integration. This paper titled "Environmental impacts of emerging biomass feedstock markets: energy, agriculture, and the farmer" was submitted to Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. At the macro-level, the project aims to address the need to analyze the impact of biofuels while incorporating the interactions between energy and agricultural markets, and investigate specifically how this interaction influences the development of the market for biomass feedstocks. At the micro-level, the project's aim is to offer information on the economic viability of agricultural residue as a biofuel feedstock, to determine whether there are unintended environmental consequences in using this feedstock, and to put forth policy recommendations to mitigate the environmental impacts. In terms of the overall outcome of this project, the results of the scenarios will provide policymakers and stakeholders with additional, more accurate information concerning the impact of biofuels on the agricultural and energy sectors, as well as on the environment. This is achieved by linking the agricultural and energy models, as models of this kind independently usually tend to overestimate the impact of biofuels.
Publications
- Secchi, S., Kurkalova, L., Gassman, P.W., and Hart, C. 2010. Land use change in a biofuels hotspot: The case of Iowa, USA. Biomass and Bioenergy, doi:10.1016/j.biombioe.2010.08.047.
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