LANDSCAPE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON NATURAL RESOURCES: METHODS AND APPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL ANALYSES

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: MCINTIRE-STENNIS
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0219814
• Project Start Date: Sep 1, 2009
• Project End Date: Aug 31, 2014
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA
200 D.W. BROOKS DR
ATHENS,GA 30602-5016

Performing Department
School of Forestry & Natural Resources

Non Technical Summary
Land transformation, conversion from natural land cover to agriculture and developed land uses driven by humanity, has converted nearly half of Earth's land area (Meyer and Turner 1992, Houghton 1994, Lambin et al. 2001). As human populations continue to grow, the Earth's urbanized area is expected to increase (Meyer and Tuner 1992; Houghton 1994; Grimm et al. 2000; Alberti et al. 2003). Areas that are important to maintaining social systems, cultural diversity and natural systems and biodiversity are rapidly being converted to developed land (Foley et al. 2005; M?rtberg et al. 2007). Urbanization, broadly defined as conversion from undeveloped land uses including agriculture to developed (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial uses), is a growing driver of worldwide changes in land cover (Grimm et al. 2000, Alberti et al. 2003), with 60% of the worldwide population expected to live in urban areas by 2030 (Sadik 1999). In rural areas, development is primarily occurring as the US population ages and retirees build retirement homes (Glasgow 1995, Bennett 1996, Dwyer and Stewart 1999) and more affluent families build second homes (Johnson and Beale 1998), both often driven by access to amenities (e.g., mountain views, cooler summer climates, water access or view) (McGranahan 1999). Studies examining changes in population and land cover have shown that the southeast US has undergone substantial change between 1973 and 2000 (Brown et al. 2005). Conversion of forests to more intensive land uses (i.e., row crop agriculture and developed) have been shown to negatively affect a wide range of ecosystem processes. For example, ecosystem changes that accompany land development (e.g., changed land cover, altered biogeochemical cycles, addition of pollutants, invasive species) directly and indirectly change the selective forces acting upon plants and animals causing some to go extinct and enabling others to thrive and expand (Marzluff 2001, Paul and Meyer 2001, Pickett et al. 2001, Kaye et al. 2006). Often exotic, human-adapted, and early successional terrestrial species benefit from land conversion accompanying development in rural areas (Hansen et al. 2005). As society becomes more concerned with ecosystem services (i.e., the ability of ecosystems to provide goods and services important to human well being), studies that are specifically aimed at understanding how human actions impact ecosystems are timely and relevant. This research project will result in: 1) a better understanding of mechanics behind variations in avian communities across gradients of landscape composition and configuration; 2) improved occupancy models of avian species and communities; 3) documentation of how the Southern Appalachian landscape has changed over the last 20 years; 4) models to predict future landscape change; 5) models to predict how avian communities may change in response to future landscapes. The empirical data gathered will add to the body of knowledge regarding how landscapes change and how terrestrial vertebrate species respond to change and these data will be made available to an ecological website so that others may have access.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
123	0320	1070	10%
131	7210	1070	60%
135	0820	1070	20%
136	0850	1070	10%

Knowledge Area
135 - Aquatic and Terrestrial Wildlife; 136 - Conservation of Biological Diversity; 123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources; 131 - Alternative Uses of Land;

Subject Of Investigation
0820 - Wild birds; 0320 - Watersheds; 0850 - Wildlife habitats; 7210 - Remote sensing equipment and technology;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;

Keywords

forest resources

land cover

land use

land cover change

avian habitat

modeling

landscape ecology

urban development

Goals / Objectives
I propose a project with the five following goals and objectives: 1) field studies to explore changes in avian species composition (a biodiversity ecosystem service) in relation to different development patterns in the southern Appalachians (Franklin, NC) and Georgia Piedmont (Athens, GA); 2) develop models of species community composition in response to landscape composition and configuration (Hepinstall et al. 2009); 3) explore land use and land cover (LULC) changes for these regions; 4) develop models of landscape change that will allow me to predict the composition and configuration of the landscape 25 years into the future, and 5) use the output of the LULC change models as input into the avian community models and predict future avian communities from predicted LULC change. The specific output for each objective includes: 1) increased knowledge of how avian communities respond to landscape change in rural, suburban, and urbanizing landscapes in the Southern Appalachians; 2) improved models relating avian species composition and individual species relative abundance to landscape composition and configuration; 3) documented changes in land use and land cover composition and configuration in the Southern Appalachians over the last 20 years; 4) new models predicting landscape change in the Southern Appalachians; 5) Predictions of how landscape change will affect the regions avian biodiversity.

Project Methods
Objective 1. Avian responses to landscape patterns: A Phd student will conduct field surveys of birds to address this objective. I will employ standard point-count survey protocols for monitoring bird populations (Hamel et al. 1996) at 4-6 points for 40 sites representing different levels of rural and residential development, including nearly 100% forested "control" sites to survey bird communities in the study area. To ensure sample independence, we will position count so that count circle centers are >200 m apart; representing detectability distances of land birds (Hutto et al. 1986). All birds detected by sight or sound will be recorded. Relative abundance of individual species as well as community differences between sites will be compared. I will explore mechanisms (e.g., dispersal, territorial size, source-sink dynamics) behind observed bird population responses to landscape change. Objective 2. Models of avian communities: Avian field data will be paired with geospatial layers (e.g., land cover, land use, roads, aspect, slope, hydrography, etc.) to develop models of species occupancy (MacKenzie et al. 2006). I will improve upon published avian models of relative abundance (e.g., Hepinstall et al. 2009a,b) by correcting for species detectability (Boulinier et al. 1998) to improve community richness models (Royle 2004, Kery et al. 2005). Objective 3. Documenting twenty years of landscape change in the Southern Appalachians: Beginning in January 2010, a master's student will compile available geospatial data including land cover from 1986, 1991, 1996, 2002, and 2006 for the Southern Appalachian study area to document current and historic patterns of land use and land cover. Objective 4. Modeling changes in land use and land cover: A master's student and I will use population projections to predict land use and associated land cover change with abandonment or intensification of agriculture and conversion of agriculture or forested lands to development within the study area at multiple spatial scales. At the finest scale, the sub-watershed scale for the Little Tennessee Watershed, we will use existing land use-land cover data, roads, zoning maps, parcel boundaries and population growth projections to model past and predict future land use changes for individual parcels using established methods (e.g., Turner 1987, Turner et al. 1996, Swenson and Franklin 2000, Wear and Bolstad 1998) and landscape change models (e.g., UrbanSim and LCCM: Waddell et al. 2003, Hepinstall et al. 2008). At the coarsest scale, we will model the proportion of forested, agricultural, and developed land cover for the entire Southern Appalachian ecoregion and allocate change at the census block or block-group scale. We will use scale-up fine-scale predictions to explore how well the models match between scales. Objective 5. Predictions of future landscapes and avian communities: I will develop predictions of plausible future land use and land cover for two spatial extents (e.g., Little Tennessee Watershed and Southern Appalachians Ecoregion). These predictions will be input into avian models to predict likely future avian communities.

Progress 09/01/09 to 08/31/14

Outputs
Target Audience: During the final year of this project our primary audience has been fellow researchers and others with an interest in wildlife habitat analysis, land cover change, and occupancy modeling statistical methods. In addition, we presented results to local stakeholders (landowners) in Macon County, North Carolina. Changes/Problems: We encountered two major challenges during the course of this project that limited our ability to complete objectives 4 and 5. One was difficulty in developing land cover data for 2011 because of the loss of Landsat 4 and problems with Landsat 7 data. The other was due to staffing issues of finding someone to do the image processing and modeling for these objectives. We continue to pursue the objectives. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Five masters students and one PhD student received graduate degrees directly related to this project. In addition six undergraduates and post-baccalaureates received training and experience as field technicians for the project. Details were provided in yearly reports. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? During the final reporting period we reached other faculty, graduate students, and other interested personnel through a dissertation defense, presentations at the annual meeting of Ecological Society of America, US Regional Association of the International Association of Landscape Ecology, presentations at the Coweeta LTER summer meeting, and presentation to the stakeholders involved in the avian community projects. In addition, we are preparing several journal articles for publication of our results. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Objective 1. Avian responses to landscape patterns: Three MS and one PhD student conducted their research in support of this objective. Cathy Ricketts completed her masters degree in December 2011 modeling Virginia Rail home range and nest site selection, nest and adult survival at sites on the South Carolina Coast . We are in the process of preparing at least two of her chapters for publication resulting from this work. Paige Barlow completed two years of field work where she measured species occurrence of over 50 species of birds across a land use intensity and elevation gradient in Macon County, NC. Camille Beasley completed her MS in spring examining avian communities and nest predator communities at established residential development, suspended development, and remnant forest sites at three different elevations. Thomas Prebyl completed his MS in 2012 measuring spring vegetation phenology across an elevation gradient on the ground and correlating ground measurements with satellite based (MODIS) phenology measurements, both of which were used to support avian modeling efforts. In sping 2013, Joanna Hatt completed her MS examining Black-throated Blue Warbler nest success and fledgling survival vary with elevation, phenology, and insect abundance at two sites at high elevation in Macon County, NC. Objective 2. Models of avian communities: Both Paige Barlow and Camille Beasley developed occupancy models for avian communities across a wildland-urban gradient in Macon County, North Carolina. Dr. Barlow (now Ferguson) developed novel methods within an occupancy modeling framework which account for incomplete detection (false positives and false negatives or recording a species that was not there or missing a species that was actually there) in her bird community data. She developed predictions of species detection and occupancy for 6 Neotropical migrant song birds. She has submitted her chapter on occupancy models that account for false positives and false negatives in heterogeneity in sites and surveys for publication and is preparing a second manuscript were she applies her models to 6 species across sites in Macon County, NC. Ms. Beasley developed hierarchical occupancy models that used site and landscape characteristics to predict to bird species occupancy. Specifically, she compared avian species composition, nest predation rates, and nest predator species composition in undisturbed forest, suspended development, and established residential landscapes to disentangle mechanisms behind observed patterns. We are preparing a manuscript for submission early in 2015 from the results of her study. Objective 3. Documenting twenty years of landscape change in the Southern Appalachians: In 2010 we completed the 2006 land cover map for the Southern Appalachians and modified existing land cover maps from 1986, 1991, and 1996 to be able to cross-walk change in land cover and land use across 5 dates. A white paper was produced and the data uploaded to the Coweeta LTER data repository. We attempted to develop a similar land cover map for 2011, but ran into significant problems due to the failing of Landsat 4 and problems with Landsat 7. In spring 2014, the NLCD 2011 land cover map for the US was released. We have completed a preliminary analysis of land cover change across the Southern Appalachians from 1986 to 2011 at multiple different spatial extents (County, Census track/block-group/block, HUC watershed). We are combining the land cover analysis with demographic analyses to examine drivers of landscape change in the region. Objective 4. Modeling changes in land use and land cover: This objective was not completed during this project. A student on this objective had to leave the program due to personal reasons and so not as much progress was made as originally anticipated. We are continuing this work and it will be a portion of a new project. Objective 5. Predictions of future landscapes and avian communities: This objective was not attempted due to a lack of required data (see Objective 4).

Publications

• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Paige F. Barlow, Michael J. Conroy, Jeffey Hepinstall-Cymerman, Multi-scale effects of exurban development on birds at protected and unprotected sites: an application of an occupancy model accounting for false positive and false negative detections. Presented at the 2014 Annual meeting of ESA, 10-15 August 2014, Sacramento, CA.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2014 Citation: Ferguson, P., M. Conroy, J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. Occupancy models for data with false positive and false negative errors and heterogeneity across sites and surveys. In Review in Methods in Ecology and Evolution 10-15-2014.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Paige Barlow. 2014. ECOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC, AND SOCIAL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH EXURBAN DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN APPALACHIA Dissertation. University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2012 Citation: Thomas Prebyl. 2012. Evaluating and Exploring Patterns of Satellite-predicted Forest Phenology in the Southern Appalachians. Master of Science Thesis. University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2011 Citation: Catherine Ricketts. 2011. Multi-scale analyses of habitat selection and demographic consequences for South Carolina clapper rails (Rallus longirostris). Master of Science Thesis. University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2014 Citation: Paige F. Barlow, Michael J. Conroy, Jeffey Hepinstall-Cymerman,Multi-scale effects of exurban development on birds at protected and unprotected sites: an application of an occupancy model accounting for false positive and false negative detections. Presented at the 2014 Annual Symposium of US-IALE, 18-22 May 2014, Anchorage, Alaska

Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: During this reporting period we reached out to approximately 25 Macon County, NC large forest landowners, supported one female doctoral student and trained one female undergraduate in avian and amphibian field and statistical modeling techniques as part of the avian community dynamics study; trained two undergraduate students in avian, insect, and plant field techniques, employed two field technicians to oversee field aspects of the Black-throated Blue Warbler field demography study; trained one doctoral student in field methods to investigate surface water movement patterns into and out of isolated wetlands; supported two female graduate students in developing geospatial models; and supported two additional female graduate students in completing their masters research. Changes/Problems: We have had to scale back the expected activities and products related to objectives 3-5. One graduate student who was working on these objectives has unfortunately withdrawn from the program and so progress on these specific objectives has slowed. The 2011 NLCD (National Land Cover Database) is now available allowing comparisons of land cover change with demographic (US census) and economic indicators to address Objective 4. As we are in the final year of this project, we will develop simplistic predictions of future land use and land cover. From these and the results of our avian community models, we will be able to accomplish Objective 5. A future project will build on these preliminary models in future years. What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? During this reporting period we partially supported the graduate studies of 6 graduate students (5 female), trained three undergraduates (all female) in field techniques and computer analysis (geospatial and statistical); trained two field technicians (one female) in field techniques. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? The three theses completed during this reporting period, as with all theses, are available electronically through the University of Georgia. We are working to publish journal articles from these and previously completed theses. Currently we have one article that has been conditionally accepted to Remote Sensing of Environment, one article nearing completion for submission to Ecological Applications, and several in the works for other applied ecology journals. We presented our work at a variety of regional, national, and international venues to audiences ranging from ecologists, landscape ecologists, and ornithologists to geographers and urban planners. We worked with UGA’s Coweeta Listening Project to write a column on the effects of urbanization on birds in The Franklin Press. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? During the final year of this project our primary focus will be on: 1) publishing journal articles resulting from the completed thesis (3) and dissertations (1 expected spring 2014); completion of activities related to Objectives 3-5 and writing up of those results. One graduate student who was working on these objectives has unfortunately withdrawn from the program and so progress on these specific objectives has slowed. Publication of the 2011 NLCD land cover will make Objective 3 attainable. Objectives 4-5 will be attempted, albeit perhaps with a limited modeling scope.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? During 2013 we accomplished the following with respect to the major objectives of the project. With regards to objectives 1, “Avian responses to landscape patterns” and 2, “Models of avian communities”, our focus was on analyzing results from prior field seasons for three interrelated projects and developing the species occupancy and survivorship models for each. Specifically, C. Beasley completed her MS entitled, “Avian communities in suspended development: mechanistic effects of changing habitat structure versus human habitation” wherein she modeled the occupancy of 25 birds in three different types of environments: established residential, suspended development, and remnant forest. We are currently working on manuscripts for publication resulting from this work. P. Barlow’s PhD work during this time period consisted of developing occupancy models that account for false positive and false negative detections (mis-identifying species during a survey) and applying these models to avian data gathered in Macon County, NC, Athens, GA, and Seattle, WA. J.Hatt completed her thesis entitled, "Intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence fledgling survival of a migratory songbird”, wherein she developed models of fledgling survival for Black-throated Blue Warblers. With regards to Objective 3, “documenting twenty years of landscape change in the Southern Appalachians”, we compiled Landsat Thematic Mapper data for the region, obtained aerial photography for a subset of the region, interpreted land cover class for roughly 3,000 locations, and began the process of creating a land cover map of the region. Significant problems were encountered due to the failure of Landsat 5 and issues with data quality for Landsat 7. We have begun to compile the socioeconomic data sets required to address Objective 4, “Modeling changes in land use and land cover in response to projected changes in human populations in 2030”. This Objective and Objective 5, Predictions of future landscapes and avian communities”, will be the focus of Fall 2013-August 2014.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Prebyl, T. J. and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. Evaluation and interpretation of MODIS-derived forest phenology in the Southern Appalachian Mountains. Remote Sensing of Environment. In Revision.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Camille Beasley. April 2013. Avian communities in suspended development: mechanistic effects of changing habitat structure versus human habitation. Master of Science public seminar and defense. University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Joanna L. Hatt. February 2013. "Intrinsic and extrinsic factors that influence fledgling survival of a migratory songbird." Master of Science public seminar and defense. University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Paige F. Barlow, Michael J. Conroy, Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2013. Accounting for false positive and false negative detections in occupancy models of songbird in a region with exurban development. Poster presentation at the EURING 2013 Analytical meeting and workshop. Athens GA April 28-May 4.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Camile Beasley, Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, Clint Moore. 2013. Suspended development: disentangling effects of land clearing and human habitation on birds. Poster presentation at the EURING 2013 Analytical meeting and workshop. Athens GA April 28-May 4.
• Type: Theses/Dissertations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: O. Stribling Stuber. February 2013. The relationship between land use and the ecological integrity of isolated wetlands in the Dougherty Plain, Georgia, USA. Master of Science public seminar and defense. University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Camille Beasley, Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2013. Suspended development: disentangling effects of habitat alteration and human habitation on birds. Oral presentation at the 2013 Annual Symposium of the US Regional Association of the International Association of Landscape Ecology. Austin Texas, April 14-18.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Thomas Prebyl, Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2013. Studying forest phenology at the landscape scale in the southern Appalachians. Oral presentation at the 2013 Annual Symposium of the US Regional Association of the International Association of Landscape Ecology. Austin Texas, April 14-18.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: James B. Deemy, Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, Katherine Kirkman, and Nathan P. Nibbelink. 2013. Spatial modeling of biologically relevant subsurface hydrologic connectivity between isolated wetlands and jurisdictional surface waters in the Dougherty Plain, Georgia, USA. Poster presentation at the 2013 Annual Symposium of the US Regional Association of the International Association of Landscape Ecology. Austin Texas, April 14-18.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, Natalie Stone. 2013. Comparing land cover and population change across multiple administrative and biophysical extents from 1990-2010 in the southern Appalachians. Poster presentation at the 2013 Annual Symposium of the US Regional Association of the International Association of Landscape Ecology. Austin Texas, April 14-18.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Joanna L. Hatt, Robert J. Cooper, and Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman. January 2013. "Influence on food availability on fledgling survival of Black-throated Blue Warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) in the southern Appalachians." Poster presentation at the Georgia Ornithological Society Winter Meeting, Tybee Island, Georgia.

Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Objective 1. Avian responses to landscape patterns: A Phd student completed her first year of working with stakeholders through interviews, focus groups, and workshops to complement her two years of avian field data that she collected across a land use intensity and elevation gradient. A MS student completed her second year of avian field data collection examining avian communities and nest predator communities at established residential development, suspended development, and remnant forest sites at three different elevations. A second MS student completed his second field season measuring spring vegetation phenology across an elevation gradient. A third MS student completed her second field season examining Black-throated Blue Warbler nest success and fledgling survival. A fourth MS student began in May 2012 to create a 2011 land cover and land use map for the Southern Appalachians to model how land use, land cover, and population changes are interrelated in the region. Objective 2. Models of avian communities: The PhD student spent a portion of 2012 developing occupancy models which account for incomplete detection for her bird community data. The MS student compiled her two years of field data and began to develop hierarchical models of species occupancy using double observers and looking for drivers of differences in avian communities and avian nest predators in suspended developments, remnant forest, and established residential developments. She will complete her MS degree Spring 2013. Objective 3. Documenting twenty years of landscape change in the Southern Appalachians: In 2012 a new MS student began work on the 2011 update to the Southern Appalachian land use and land cover map. We have compiled additional geospatial data (e.g., elevation, climate [current and potential future], Census (1990, 2000, 2010) to support objectives 3 & 4. Objective 4. Modeling changes in land use and land cover: A master's student started May 2012 and is funded by the Coweeta LTER through April 2014. She is currently developing the 2011 land cover map for the study region (Objective 3) and will model land cover and land use change in relation to economic and demographic drivers for the region as her masters project. Objective 5. Predictions of future landscapes and avian communities: working relating to this objective will commence summer 2013 once the 2011 land cover map is complete. Two new PhD students also joined the lab in 2012: one is identifying and quantifying the hydrologic connectivity between isolated wetlands and jurisdictional hydrographic features in the Dougherty Plain of Southwestern Georgia; a second is modeling Gopher Tortoise habitat in Georgia, adding taxonomic breath to Objectives 1 & 2 above. Presentations: 27; Thesis completed: 1; Other activities: Trained 4 technicians; mentored 6 undergraduates; avian point count database for two separate studies; audio recordings of 6 structured decision making workshops with Macon County landowners; Dataset of satellite-predicted times of leaf emergence and development from 2001-2011. PARTICIPANTS: Paige Barlow, PhD Candidate. Project Title: Human land use and avian conservation in exurbanizing region: application of occupancy modeling and structured decision making. Project Objectives: 1) quantify the effects of land use on avian communities in Macon County, NC, through a Bayesian multi-species occupancy model with a novel extension to account for false positive detection; 2) compare the effects of land use on avian communities near two cities experiencing rapid residential development: Franklin, NC and Seattle, WA, and quantify the effects of land use on avian extinction and colonization in Seattle; 3) work with residents of Macon County, NC, to understand their fundamental objectives regarding land stewardship, identify potential forest management options for individual property owners, and evaluate these management options in light of landowner values and expected outcomes through structured decision making. Completion of PhD anticipated in December 2014. Camille Beasley, MS student. Project Title: Project Title: Suspended development: disentangling effects of land clearing and human habitation on birds. Project Objectives: Utilize "suspended developments" - exurban residential projects that were abandoned before completion - as experimental landscapes to represent the structural habitat change resulting from development without the human inhabitants. Compare occupancy and abundance estimates of avian species, nest predation rates, and nest predator community composition between undisturbed forests, suspended developments, and inhabited subdivisions to narrow down the mechanisms responsible for changes experienced by the avian community. Anticipated completion of MS in May 2013. Thomas Prebyl, MS student. Project Title: Evaluating and exploring patterns of satellite-predicted forest phenology in the Southern Appalachians. Project Objectives: Quantify the capability of satellite data to predict the spatial and temporal patterns of leaf emergence observed in ground observations. Determine how both intra and inter annual patterns in temperature variability influence the timing of leaf emergence. Masters completed in December 2012. Joanna Hatt, MS student. Project Title: Influence of insect availability on fledgling survival of Black-throated Blue Warblers in the Southern Appalachians. Project Objectives: The primary goal of my research is to advance the mechanistic understanding of how climate change could affect individuals and populations. More specifically, I am interested in how climate-induced changes to habitat quality (as measured by larval insect abundance) influence fledgling survival of the Black-throated Blue Warbler. Anticipated completion of MS in May 2013. Natalie Hall, MS Student. Project Title: Modeling land use/land cover change in the Southern Appalachians using an integrative spatial and socioeconomic approach. Natalie is currently developing her proposal, but her basic goals are to compare how land cover/land use and populations have changed at multiple different spatial extents across the Southern Appalachians. She is working with an economist to bring an economic perspective on the changes seen on the ground. TARGET AUDIENCES: Networking with the following individuals (and organizations): Networks with Wayne Swank, Scott Pearson, Nik Heynen, Sakura Evans, Jason Love (Coweeta), Mike Conroy, John Chamblee (UGA), Dennis Desmond (Land Trust for the Little Tennessee), Gary Wein (Highlands-Cashiers Land Trust), Barbara McRae (Franklin Press), Curtis Smalling (Audubon NC), Hark Hopey (Southern Appalachian Raptor Research), Russ Regnery (Highlands Plateau Audubon Society), John and Cathy Sill (Franklin Bird Club); Macon County, NC landowners (two avian community studies); UGA undergraduate students in Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, Odum School of Ecology, Geography, Plant Biology, and related fields. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Change in knowledge: Barlow: Development of Bayesian single- and multi-species occupancy model accounting for false negative detections, false positive detections, site-specific covariates, and survey-specific covariates; understanding of interview and focus group theory and methods; Learned how to recruit research participants, conduct interviews, run structured decision making workshops. Beasley: new information about which bird species respond strongly to exurban development and which components of development drive their response, new information about which landscape characteristics influence nest predator activity and predation rates, improved skills in point counts and nest predator identification using clay eggs. Hatt: I learned to implement and analyze my own research project. I gained knowledge on how to analyze capture-mark-recapture data with Cormack-Jolly-Seber models in WinBUGS to estimate survival. I also learned how to incorporate random effects in modeling and how to fit random-effects models in Program R. Finally, I became more proficient in other analysis tools in ArcGIS including, but not limited to, interpolation techniques and home-range analysis. Prebyl: I gained knowledge on how to design and implement an ecological study. I improved my knowledge of proper statistical analysis, hypothesis testing, and model selection. I gained knowledge on how to analyze remotely sensed data and in employing computer programming to optimize processing of large datasets. I improved my understanding of the utility of remotely-sensed data for monitoring terrestrial vegetation. Change in actions: Barlow: Application of structured decision making knowledge; going beyond the classroom to development in the field; improved coding in R2WinBUGS; improved diagnosis and modification of WinBUGS models. Hatt: I became more proficient in running Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS and more familiar with Program R. Additionally, I improved my oral presentation skills through attendance at symposia and meetings. Prebyl: The more formal knowledge I gained on proper study design and statistical analysis influenced the manner I conducted by research and will continue to influence my future ecological studies. My increased knowledge of computer software, particularly for spatial and statistical analyses, has allowed me to pursue research questions that I would have previously viewed as time or cost prohibitive. Change in conditions: Barlow: Helped build relationship between Macon County landowners, Coweeta LTER, and the University of Georgia; increased collaboration and transdisciplinary research through involvement in a working group studying best practices for socio-ecological research at the graduate level.

Publications

• Hepinstall-Cymerman, J., J. M. Marzluff, and M. Alberti. 2012. Predicting avian community responses to increasing urbanization. Pp. 223-248 in C. A. Lepczyk and P. S. Warren (editors). Urban bird ecology and conservation. Studies in Avian Biology (no. 45), University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
• Webster, J.R., E.F. Benfield, K. Cecala, J.F. Chamblee, C. Dehering, T.Gragson, J. Hepinstall, C.R. Jackson, J. Knoepp, D. Leigh, J. Maerz, C. Pringle, and H.M. Valett. 2012. Water quality and exurbanization in southern Appalachian streams. Pages 91-106 in P.J. Boon and P.J. Raven (editors). River Conservation and Management. Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK.
• Marten, G.I., K. Kirkman, J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2012. Mapping geographically isolated wetlands in the Dougherty plain, Georgia, USA. Wetlands 32:149-160.
• Trombulak, S.C., R.F. Baldwin, J.J. Lawler, J. Cymerman-Hepinstall, and M.A. Anderson. 2012. Landscape-scale conservation planning for climate change in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion. C.C. Chester, J.A. Hilty and M.S. Cross, eds. Climate and Conservation: Landscape and seascape science, planning, and action. Island Press.

Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Objective 1. Avian responses to landscape patterns: A Phd student completed her second year of avian field data collection across a land use intensity and elevation gradient. A MS student completed her first year of avian field data collection examining avian communities and nest predator communities at established residential development, suspended development, and remnant forest sites at three different elevations. A second MS student completed his first field season measuring spring vegetation phenology across an elevation gradient. A third MS student completed her first field season examining Black-throated Blue Warbler nest success and fledgling survival. Objective 2. Models of avian communities: The PhD student spent the spring and fall of 2011 developing occupancy models which account for incomplete detection for her bird community data. The MS student has compiled her first year of field data and is learning the software and methods required to model species occupancy. An additional student who was previously working under another professor , completed her masters degree in December modeling Virginia Rail home range and nest site selection, nest and adult survival at sites on the South Carolina Coast. Objective 3. Documenting twenty years of landscape change in the Southern Appalachians: In 2010 we completed the 2006 land cover map for the Southern Appalachians. During 2011 we modified existing land cover maps for the region to be able to cross-walk change in land cover and land use. We have been compiling additional geospatial data to support objectives 3 & 4. A white paper and journal publication are being developed for submission fall 2012. Objective 4. Modeling changes in land use and land cover: A master's student has been recruited for this project beginning May 2012 and will be funded by the Coweeta LTER. She will develop the 2011 land cover map for the study region (Objective 3) and model land cover and land use change for the region as her masters project. Objective 5. Predictions of future landscapes and avian communities: working relating to this objective will commence late 2012 or early 2013. Presentations by PI and graduate students:14. Thesis completed: 1. Datasets developed: Avian community composition (2); Avian demography; Spring phenology; Graduate student activities: Trained 5 field technicians; served as mentor to 6 undergraduate field researchers. Other Activities: Completed a Teaching Practicum course (Hatt);Panelist at Cowee Community Development Organization Meeting: Explained Coweeta LTER research to local residents and answered questions(Barlow); Helped lead bird walk for the Land Trust for the Little Tennessee: Franklin, NC (Barlow); Research featured in The Franklin Press: McRae, B. "Ph.D. candidate studying population dynamics of birds in Macon County." The Franklin Press. 18 February 2011. (Barlow). PARTICIPANTS: MS Students: Joanna Hatt, Thomas Prebyl, Camille Beasely PhD Students: Paige Barlow Field Technicians (5); Undergraduate students (7) Partner Organizations: Coweeta LTER (NSF funded); Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory (US Forest Service); Land Trust for the Little Tennessee: Franklin, NC TARGET AUDIENCES: Current efforts have focused on education of graduate and undergraduate students involved in development and carrying out field research associated with this project. Training efforts have involved formal classroom/computer labs, field trips, intensive field research, use of advanced GIS and remote sensing software and data. In addition, the graduate students involved in this project report the following activities involved with training and data gathering: Barlow: Trained and supervised an avian point count technician; Directed a vegetation technician; The avian point count technician and I each conducted 978 point counts at 163 sites across Macon County, North Carolina, totaling 3,912 minutes of bird song recordings. We detected 85 songbird and woodpecker species and at least 6,460 individual birds; We collected site- and survey-specific variables including date, time, elevation, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, sky condition, ambient noise level, number of domestic cats, number of domestic dogs, number of large livestock, number of small livestock, number of bird houses, number of bird baths, number of bird feeders, and number of ornamental water features; Write code to run hierarchical multi-species occupancy models with site and survey covariates in R2WinBUGS; Test hierarchical multi-species occupancy model code with simulated data. Ricketts: Analyses of nest survival data, adult survival data, and habitat selection data with respect to nest survival and adult survival for clapper rails in South Carolina. Prebyl: Conducted field research to collect forest phenology observations from March 1, 2011 to June 15th, 2011. Deployed a network of temperature loggers to monitor local variability in temperature from March 2011 - August 2012. Introducing and mentoring undergraduate students in individual field research projects. Gained experience hiring, training, and managing a field technician. Gained experience instructing undergraduate students as a teaching assistant in an introductory GIS course. Hatt: Conducted field research on 2 sites from April to July in Otto, NC (includes monitoring of 125 Black-throated Blue Warbler nests and 70 fledglings); trained 2 technicians to gather and enter field data; gave a guest lecture on field methods of avian study; served as a mentor to 6 undergraduate students during summer field course and 1 undergraduate through a senior thesis, including: guiding students through data collection and analysis, providing valuable feedback on research ideas, analysis and manuscripts; served as a teaching assistant to an undergraduate Spatial Analysis course - guided and supported students in lab and graded lab documents. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Change in knowledge: Bayesian multi-species occupancy modeling (Barlow); Quantified habitat choices for clapper rails and impacts on adult/nest survival, manuscripts for publication in preparation. (Ricketts); Gained knowledge on how to design and implement an ecological study; improved knowledge of proper statistical analysis, hypothesis testing, and model selection; gained knowledge on how to analyze remotely sensed data and in employing computer programming to optimize processing of large datasets; improved understanding of the utility of remotely-sensed data for monitoring terrestrial vegetation. (Prebyl); I learned to design, implement, and analyze my own research project. An increased understanding of developing a project through multiple-hypothesis testing and model selection helped me in the design aspect. I gained knowledge on how to analyze capture-mark-recapture data in Program MARK to estimate survival. I also became equipped at developing and managing a database in Microsoft Access. Lastly, in an Advanced Spatial Analysis course, I learned how to estimate home-ranges, interpolation techniques, and develop species-distribution models. (Hatt) Change in actions: Application of information from publications regarding the effects of urbanization on songbirds, Bayesian multi-species occupancy modeling (Barlow); Secured permission at 163 new sample sites (Barlow); Upon publication, results from this study could influence land management decisions. (Ricketts); The more formal knowledge I gained on proper study design and statistical analysis influenced the manner I conducted by research and will continue to influence my future ecological studies. My increased knowledge of computer software, particularly for spatial and statistical analyses, has allowed me to pursue research questions that I would have previously viewed as time or cost prohibitive. (Prebyl); I became more proficient in the tools available in ArcGIS and updated my use to ArcGIS v.10. Additionally, I improved my oral presentation skills through attendance at symposia and meetings. (Hatt) Change in conditions: Help facilitate dialog between Coweeta and Macon County residents (Barlow)

Publications

• Marten, GI, K. Kirkman, J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2012 Mapping geographically isolated wetlands in the Dougherty plain, Georgia, USA. Wetlands.

Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Objective 1. Paige Barlow was recruited as a Phd on this project Fall 2009. During the summer of 2010, she and a technician conducted avian surveys at 113 sites in North Georgia and south-western North Carolina, recording presence of 72 songbird and woodpecker species. A second field technician surveyed the vegetation community surrounding avian survey sites. Objective 2. Avian and vegetation field data have been compiled during fall 2010. Modeling of avian occupancy will commence in early 2011. Objective 3. Geospatial data to support this effort have been gathered including historic land cover for 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006; hydrography, roads. During the summer of 2010, an undergraduate was hired through the Coweeta LTER to digitize land use for selected watersheds in Macon County, NC. In addition, he obtained approximately 200 ground-based land use points to assist in future land cover classification efforts. In August 2010, two MS students enrolled in the Warnell School to work on this project. Camille Beasley will be working on assessing avian communities and predator communities in areas of suspended development (subdivisions that were cleared for development, roads and utilities put in, and then abandoned when the housing market crashed in 2007-2008) in the southern Appalachians. Tom Prebyl is investigating how spring phenology measured on the ground correlate to MODIS and Landsat Thematic Mapper vegetation indices. All data discussed above have been or will be made available through the Coweeta LTER website. Mr. Prebyl will also assist the PI with modeling associated with Objectives 3 and 4 in 2011-12. Presentations: Webster, J. R. et al including J. Hepinstall. 2010. Water quality and exurbanization in southern Appalachian streams. 2010. Oral presentation at the Conservation and Management of Rivers: 20 Years On. September 6-9. York, UK. Hepinstall-Cymerman. J. 2010. Growth management and patterns of land cover change in the Central Puget Sound, Washington, 1986-2002. Oral presentation at Emerging Issues Along Urban-Rural Interfaces Conference. April 11-14. Atlanta, GA. Barlow, P. and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2010. Estimating avian occupancy and determining effects of exurbanization in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Poster presentation given at the Emerging Issues Along Urban-Rural Interfaces Conference. April 11-14. Atlanta, GA. Barlow, P. and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2010. Estimating avian occupancy and determining effects of exurbanization in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Oral presentation at the Warnell Graduate Student Association Graduate Student Symposium. March 4-5, 2010. University of Georgia, Athens GA. Barlow, P. and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2010. Estimating avian occupancy and determining effects of exurbanization in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Poster presentation, Annual Symposium of US-IALE, Athens, Georgia. Hepinstall-Cymerman, J. and M. Parrish. 2010. Avian responses to residential development across an urban-rural gradient in northern Georgia, USA. Oral presentation, Annual Symposium of US-IALE, Athens, Georgia. PARTICIPANTS: Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, PI - project coordination, graduate student advisement Paige Barlow, doctoral student, Warnell School - responsible for gathering avian field data (Objective 1) and avian occupancy modeling (Objective 2). Glenn Martin, masters student, Warnell School - masters research on a related project - documenting land use change and effects on wetlands in SW Georgia. Cathy Ricketts, masters student, Warnell School - masters research on a related project - modeling nest success and habitat use by Clapper and King Rails TARGET AUDIENCES: Individuals: Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, PI - project coordination, graduate student advisement Paige Barlow, doctoral student, Warnell School - responsible for gathering avian field data (Objective 1) and avian occupancy modeling (Objective 2). Glenn Martin, masters student, Warnell School - masters research on a related project - documenting land use change and effects on wetlands in SW Georgia. Cathy Ricketts, masters student, Warnell School - masters research on a related project - modeling nest success and habitat use by Clapper and King Rails Partner Organizations: NSF-funded Coweeta LTER and USGS Coweeta Hydrologic Station - housing and field vehicle access; Georgia Ornithological Society - grant to assist in 2011 field season; Georgia Museum of Natural History - grant to assist in 2011 field season; Land Trust for the Little Tennessee; Highlands Audubon Society; Highlands Biological Station; Drake Software Collaborators: Ted Gragson, John Chamblee, Jason Love (Coweeta LTER and UGA), Rhett Jackson, John Maerz, Kathy Pringle - collaboration on LTER-related research Training or professional development: Undergraduate (1) Graduate students (4) Private citizen (1) PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Training in field identification of birds, conducting a field-based research project, and project management occurred for the Phd student, the summer avian field technician (who has subsequently become a MS student of the PI). A private citizen with experience in surveying vegetation of the southern Appalachians was hired to survey the vegetation (species and structure) for the avian study sites and as such improved his skills at plant identification. In addition, an undergraduate student received training and experience in aerial photo interpretation, field acquisition of ground reference sites, and classifying remotely sensed data. The PhD student on this project is using the skills she has learned through fall 2009-fall 2010 coursework at UGA to begin to develop the avian occupancy models (Objective 2). In addition, her interests including obtaining and including stakeholder input in her dissertation. Specifically, she will work with stakeholders to create a means objective network and Bayesian belief network so that the diverse perceptions held by local stakeholders can be represented, alternative land use options can be identified and evaluated, and management recommendation(s) that integrates human and conservation objectives can be developed. Results from the study based in North Georgia and south-western North Carolina will be considered for application to the larger Southern Appalachian Region.

Publications

• Parrish, M.P., and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2011. Using geospatial data and principles of landscape ecology to indentify field sites and characterize landscapes. Annals of GIS. (In Press)
• Parrish, M.P., and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2011. Associations between multi-scale landscape characteristics and breeding bird abundance and diversity across urban-rural gradients in Northeastern Georgia, USA. Urban Ecosystems. (In Press)
• Lawler, J.L. and Hepinstall-Cymerman, J. 2011. Conservation planning in a changing climate: assessing the impacts of potential range shifts on a reserve network. S. Trombulak and R. Baldwin, eds. Multi-scale Conservation Planning. (In Press)
• Hepinstall, J.A., J.M. Marzluff, M. Alberti. 2011. Predicting avian community responses to increasing urbanization. Studies in Avian Biology. (In Press)
• Hepinstall-Cymerman, J. 2011. Ecological modeling in urban environments: predicting changes in biodiversity in response to future urban development. X. Yang, ed. Urban remote sensing: monitoring, synthesis and modeling in the urban environment. (In Press)
• Parrish, M. and J. Hepinstall-Cymerman. 2010. Using geospatial data and principles of landscape ecology to indentify field sites and characterize landscapes. Proceedings of the 7th Southern Forestry and Natural Resources GIS Conference, December 2009. Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA. (Abstract)