Source: TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
UNDERSTANDING TRENDS IN VISITATION AND NON-VISIATION TO NATIONAL PARKS
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0219450
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Jul 29, 2009
Project End Date
Jul 28, 2014
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
750 AGRONOMY RD STE 2701
COLLEGE STATION,TX 77843-0001
Performing Department
Recreation, Parks & Tourism
Non Technical Summary
National Park Service (NPS) statistics show a steep increase in recreational visits to the National Park System from 1970 through 1987, followed by a gradual decline. The total drop in visits between 1987 and 2006 was 14.6 million, or a 5.1% decrease from a peak of 287.2 million. This has occurred despite population growth and an expansion of the National Park System from 303 units reporting visits in 1987 to 367 in 2008. The decline in visitation has economic consequences for communities near parks. Visitors to the National Park System spent an estimated $11.8 billion around parks in 2007. This spending supported 209,000 jobs, $4.5 billion in labor income, and $7.0 billion in value added. Thus, the impact of declining visits is important not only to the NPS, but to gateway regions that rely on the economic contributions of visitation to local communities. The NPS lacks a method that allows park managers to quantify trends in the socioeconomic status of park visitors, populations in regions around parks, and in the nation as whole. This capacity is essential for decision-making to fulfill the NPS mission to protect visitor experiences and park resources. In recognition of these issues, the House and Senate Appropriations Committees in their joint explanatory statement attached to the 2008 Interior Appropriations Bill instructed the Director of the NPS to "take steps to enhance the Service's capacity to analyze and understand variations in park use among different demographic groups. This effort will be critical as the Parks prepare for a new generation of users." To better analyze and understand this variation, this project analyzes social and economic factors associated with changes in park visitation over time and the reasons for non-visitation. It develops a socioeconomic monitoring program for the NPS that will increase the agency's capacity to track changes in the characteristics of visitors and non-visitors, enhance knowledge of underlying causes driving park visitation over time, and inform actions by park managers that can be taken to address those causes.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1340599308050%
1346050308050%
Goals / Objectives
This project will analyze current correlates of park visitation and create the capacity to conduct additional analyses to improve understanding of variations in use of the National Park System by different demographic groups. The project has three objectives: 1) Use existing secondary data sources to analyze correlations between macro-socioeconomic trends in the U.S. and changes in recreation visits to the National Park System between 1987 and 2006; 2) collect and analyze primary data on the demographic characteristics of recent park visitors and non-visitors, including reasons for non-visitation; and 3) begin developing a Socioeconomic Monitoring Program analogous to the existing NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program for natural resources and based on a national needs assessment covering all seven NPS administrative regions.
Project Methods
1. Using secondary data sources, this project will develop and evaluate quantitative models of National Park System visitation trends between 1987 and 2006. This research will utilize statistical modeling to identify factors showing significant negative and positive correlations with visitation trends and segregate these factors into population-relevant components (e.g., changes in the ethnic profile of the U.S.) and variables related to other causes (e.g., natural disasters, changes in visitation counting methods). 2. The 2008/2009 NPS Comprehensive Survey of the American Public has collected survey data from a random sample of 4,000 respondents to address the second objective. This survey was conducted by the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center with funding from the NPS Social Science Program. The survey was completed in four waves using a random digit dial sample of households stratified by the seven NPS administrative regions. The regional samples will be weighted to produce a representative national data set. Where possible, comparisons will be made with the 2000 NPS Comprehensive Survey of the American Public to establish trends over time in visitation and reasons for non-visitation. 3. A needs assessment will be conducted in each administrative region of the NPS to identify the socioeconomic information that parks, regions, and national programs need for decision-making. Based on input from the workshops, strategies will be developed for monitoring socioeconomic trends at park, regional, and national scales. Data developed at the park scale will be capable of analysis over time within a single park and will include periodic visitor surveys. Monitoring at the regional level will draw upon primary and secondary data sources to describe trends in regional populations around parks. Monitoring at the national scale will rely on periodic repetitions of the NPS Comprehensive Survey of the American Public and will monitor trends in visitation and non-visitation to parks, including reasons for not visiting.

Progress 07/29/09 to 07/28/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Persons with an interest in national park and protected area policy in Texas and the United States. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Several reports on the project acitvites were completed and distributed within the National Park Service. A report on socioeconomic indicator monitoring has resulted in initial field testing of a monitoring protocol scheduled for 2015. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? The output of this project produced several changes in our knowledge of visitation and non-visitation patterns in the National Park System. Statistical modeling of secondary showed that between 1990 and 2007, total population, the size of the non-Hispanic whate population, national employment, and hours per capita spent on video entertainment had positive correlations with park visitation. Income inequality, the real price of travel, median age, and the number of cellphone subscribers had negative ffects. Visitation to the National Park System adjusted gradually to changes in these factors over time. A national household survey conducted in 2008-2009 found that recent visitors to the National Park System were disproportionately white and non-Hispanic. The most common reason for not visiting units of the National Park System more often was that people "just don't know that much about the National Park System units." Improved methods for monitoring trail use in wilderness and urban areas of the National Park System were identified through field testing at Guadalupe Mountains National Park and San Antonio Missions Naitonal Historical Park, both in Texas. This allowed park managers to more accurately measure the distribution of use in the park and plan trail maintenance and visitor protection activities. A national needs assessment for socioeconomic monitoring in the National Park System identified 175 indicators that NPS regional park, and program staff rated as useful in performing their jobs.

Publications


    Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13

    Outputs
    Target Audience: National Park Service managers in wilderness and urban parks. National Park Service social scientists. Watershed managers, including the San Antonio River Authority (Texas). Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Reports on trail monitoring protocols and technologies have been disseminated to various offices in the National Park Service and to transportation agencies. The analysis of the feasibility of the next National Park Service Comprehensive Survey of the American Public was submitted to the Social Science Branch of the National Park Service. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? In the final year of this project, I will continue working on my book, "Americans and Their National Parks," with the objective of submitting a full publication proposals to an academic press.

    Impacts
    What was accomplished under these goals? This project has allowed more exact measurement of total trail use in an around national parks: (1) Guadalupe Mountains National Park (a wilderness preserve); and (2) the Mission Reach of the San Antonio River running 11 miles next to the San Antonio Missions National Historical Park in a heavily urbanized area. At Guadalupe Mountains, trail traffic in remote areas can now be estimated based on a sampling protocol developed for the park. This allows managers to more accurately measue the distribution of use in the park, plan trail maintenance and visitor protection activities, and estimate the extent of visitior compliance with a voluntary trail-use fee collected at self-administered trail heads in the park. In San Antonio, Bexar County Texas, along with partners, has invested over $250,000,000 dollars in the restoration of a riparian landscape along the degraded San Antonio River. A multi-use path for pedestrians and bicycles parallels the river, linking central San Antonio with the more economically depressed southern part of the city. For accountability purposes and maintenance purposes, managers want to know how much bicycle use and how much pedestrian occurs on the pathway, its distribution in time and space, and the predominant directions of travel. This project now allows these paramters to be measured in a cost-efficient and timely way.

    Publications

    • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Turner, S., Gramann, J. & Lasley, P. (2013). Monitoring trail use: National park case study applications. Presented at the biennial meeting of the George Wright Society, Denver, CO.
    • Type: Other Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Gramann, J. H. (2013). Feasibility Analysis for the NPS Comprehensive Survey of the American Public: Response Mode, Survey Language, Nonresponse Bias, and Cell Phone Sampling. Contract report for the Social Science Branch, National Park Service, Fort Collins, CO, 26 pp.


    Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

    Outputs
    OUTPUTS: During 2012 I performed extensive research on primary documents for a scholarly book tentatively titled, "Living Landscapes: Americans and Their National Parks." This work occurred at the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) at College Park, MD and Fort Worth, TX and at the affiliated NARA archive in Yellowstone National Park. I also researched primary documents at the archives of the Jefferson National Expansion Memorial in St. Louis, MO, the Renne Library special collections at Montana State University, and the archives of the Little Bighorn Battlefield National Monument at Crow Agency, MT. In addition, I conducted 9 recorded interviews with key informants. I also made three presentations to diverse audiences on topics related to national park visitation and the factors influencing visitation and non-visitation trends. Audiences included graduate students participating in "Park Break," a week-long seminar and workshop hosted by Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (PA) and two presentations at the National Park Service's Schoodic Education and Research Center in Winter Harbor, ME. One of these was to visiting conservation professionals from Oman and one was to park staff and local residents at Acadia National Park, ME. I also presented an invited paper titled, "Four Steps to a More Culturally Inclusive National Park System" at America's Summit on National Parks in Washington, D.C. Finally, I continued two cooperative projects with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute evaluating new technologies to measure trends in pedestrian visits to national park units at San Antonio Missions National Historical Park and Guadalupe Mountains Nation Park (both in Texas). Other important partners in this collaborative research include the U.S. National Park Service and the San Antonio River Authority. PARTICIPANTS: Co-authors included: Dr. Patricia Taylor, Professor, Dept. of Sociology, University of Wyoming and Dr. Burke Grandjean, Professor, Dept. of Statistics and Dept. of Sociology, University of Wyoming. Co-principal investigators included: Shawn Turner, Senior Research Engineer, Texas A&M Transportation Institute. Partner organizations included: National Park Service (San Antonio Missions National Historical Park, Guadalupe Mountains National Park, and the Gulf Coast Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit); and the San Antonio River Authority. Training opportunities in protected area social science were provided to graduate students from 8 U.S. universities who participated in Park Break; and to 10 conservation professionals from Oman on an extended visit to the U.S. sponsored by the U.S. Dept. of State. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences included current and future scientists working in the conservation of protected areas; and managers of parks and facilities providing outdoor recreation opportunities to the American public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

    Impacts
    Along with two co-authors at the University of Wyoming, I completed and revised a peer-reviewed report on park visitor and non-visitor opinions on soundscape management issues in national parks. Publication of this report is scheduled for 2013. It represents the first analysis of its kind of national public opinion on an emerging resource management issue in national parks and other protected areas. Content from my presentation at America's Summit on National Parks influenced recommendations included in the final report from that conference published by the National Parks Conservation Association and the National Parks Hospitality Association. The work at San Antonio Missions and Guadalupe Mountains has resulted in improved monitoring of pedestrian and bicycle traffic in these areas, and the system we developed is being adopted by the San Antonio River Authority for more extensive monitoring efforts. A final report on this work and 2 poster presentations at national conferences are scheduled for 2013. I will continue research and writing for my book on the cultural history and future prospects for American national parks during 2013 with a planned publication date of 2016 (the year of the National Park Service centennial).

    Publications

    • No publications reported this period


    Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

    Outputs
    OUTPUTS: Objective 2. Three peer-reviewed technical reports describing results form the 2nd National Park Service (NPS) Comprehensive Survey of the American Public were published by the National Park Service Social Science Division. These reports are available online at: http://www.nature.nps.gov/socialscience/products.cfm. In addition, the database used in the analyses for the reports was finalized and is available to researchers by contacting the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center at the University of Wyoming, Laramie. A discussion of the characteristics and opinions of national park visitors and non-visitors was presented at a workshop convened by the National Parks Promotion Council in Yosemite National Park, California in January 2011. This discussion drew on results from the comprehensive survey. Finally, two papers based on the survey results were presented to an audience of academic researchers and government scientists at the 2011 conference of the George Wright Society in New Orleans, LA in April 2011. PARTICIPANTS: In addition to the principal investigator, data collection, analysis, and reporting for the 2nd NPS Comprehensive Survey of the American Public involved the following individuals and collaborators: 1) Patricia A. Taylor, Professor, Dept. of Sociology, University of Wyoming and Faculty Affiliate, Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center; 2) Burke D. Grandjean, Executive Director, Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center and Professor of Statistics and Sociology, University of Wyoming; 3) Gerard T. Kyle, Associate Professor, Dept. of Recreation, Park and Tourism Sciences, Texas A&M University. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audiences for reports and databases produced by this project in 2011 include managers, planners, and policymakers in the National Park Service; businesses and governments in communities and regions adjacent to national parks; and academic researchers in the social sciences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

    Impacts
    The publication of the three technical reports, the workshop, and the two conference presentations produced several changes in knowledge of visitation and non-visitation patterns in the National Park System. For example: 1) U.S. residents who could name a unit of the National Park System they had visited in the two years before the survey were disproportionately white and non-Hispanic; 2) visitation differences by race/ethnic group seem not to have changed much since the previous iteration of the NPS Comprehensive Survey in 2000; 3) the reason for not visiting more often that was most widely cited by respondents was that they "just don't know that much about National Park System units." Hispanic, Asian, and African Americans were more likely to agree with this statement than were non-Hispanic whites; and 4) very few non-Hispanic whites saw NPS units as unsafe, unpleasant, or providing poor service, whereas up to a quarter of those in other groups agreed with these reasons for not visiting. Hispanic non-visitors more often expressed such concerns than did members of any other group.

    Publications

    • Taylor, Patricia A., Burke D. Grandjean, & James H. Gramann. 2011. Racial and Ethnic Diversity of National Park System Visitors and Non-visitors. Topical report from the National Park Service 2008-2009 Comprehensive Survey of the American Public. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/SSD.NRR 2011432. Fort Collins, CO: National Park Service.
    • Taylor, Patricia A., Burke D. Grandjean, and Bistra Anatchkova. 2011. National Park Service comprehensive survey of the American public, 2008-2009: National Technical Report. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRPC/SSD/NRR 2011/295. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.
    • Taylor, Patricia A., Burke D. Grandjean, and Michael Dorssom. 2011. National Park Service comprehensive survey of the American public: 2008-2009; Broad comparisons to the 2000 survey. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRSS/SSD/NRR 2011/431. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.


    Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

    Outputs
    OUTPUTS: Objective 1. Final peer-reviewed technical reports were completed and submitted to the National Park Service Social Science Division. The reports include a review of literature on factors affecting recreation participation and visitation patterns and a time-series analysis of variables correlated with recreation visits to the National Park System between 1990 and 2007. Objective 2. Several draft technical reports from the 2nd NPS Comprehesnive Survey of the American Public have been prepared and one has been peer-reviewed. The survey contacts both visitors and non-visitors to the National Park System. The draft reports include a national technical report (peer-review completed), seven regional reports, a non-response bias analysis report, and a report comparing results of the first and second comprehensive surveys. Objective 2. An article analyzing factors affecting visitors' participation in appropriate and beneficial physical activities in national parks was completed and published in a peer-reviewed journal. Objective 3. The national needs assessment for an NPS socioeconomic monitoring program was completed and a final technical report was published. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals and partner organizations, in addition to Texas AgriLIFE Research, included the National Park Service Social Science Division, the National Park Service Rivers, Trails, and Conservation Assistance Program, Dr. John Burkett (University of Rhode Island), Dr. Timothy Tyrrell (Arizona State University), Dr. Randy Virden (San Jose State University), Dr. Patricia Taylor (University of Wyoming), Dr. Burke Grandjean (University of Wyoming), Dr. Christine Hoehner (Washington University), and Dr. Ross Brownson (Washington University). TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience for this research included the National Park Service and residents of communities near national park units participating in the NPS Health and Recreation Initiative. Among these residents were African American youth in Akron, OH and Jacksonville, FL, who were recruited and involved specifically as target audiences. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

    Impacts
    The outputs produced several changes in knowledge of visitation and non-visitation patterns in the National Park System. Between 1990 and 2007, population, the size of the non-Hispanic white the population, national employment, and hours per capita spent on video entertainment had positive effects on visitation. Income inequality, the real price of travel, median age, and the number of cellphone subscribers had negative effects. Visitation to the National Park System adjusted gradually to changes in these factors over time. Five of seven pilot parks participating in the National Park Service (NPS) Health and Recreation Initiative showed evidence of an increase in physical activity among visitors associated with intervention activities implemented by the parks. Two parks focusing on youth showed evidence of an increase in awareness of the benefits of physical activity; however, the other five sites found high levels of awareness at baseline (approaching 90% of visitors), suggesting little room for improvement as a result of the interventions. New and diverse partnership to promote physical activity in parks was the most common benefit reported across the seven pilot sites by NPS staff. A national needs assessment for socioeconomic monitoring identified 175 indicators that NPS regional, park, and program staff rated as useful in performing their jobs. A working group organized these indicators into a hierarchy of four "Level 1" categories, more specific "Level 2" categories, and "Level 3" indicators. The Level 1 categories included visitors and other people in parks; 2) people outside parks; 3) economy; and 4) perceptions, attitudes, and values (of people inside and outside parks). The working group then rated all 175 indicators on management, social science, and law and policy significance. This resulted in a prioritized list of indicators based on the significance criteria. The working group also drafted a logic model illustrating how indicators selected for monitoring support the NPS mission by measuring progress toward achieving strategic goals.

    Publications

    • Hoehner, C., Brownson, R., Allen, D., Gramann, J., Behrens, T., Floyd, M., Leahy, J., Smaldone, D., Spain, D., Tardona, D., Ruthmann, N., Selier, R., & Yount, B. (2010). Parks promoting physical activity: Synthesis and findings from interventions in seven national parks. Journal of Physical Activity and Health, 9(Suppl1), S67-S81.
    • Gramann, J., Breeding, D., Cull, E., Shingote, R., & Jingxian, J. (2010). "Final Report: NPS Socioeconomic Monitoring Needs Assessment." Technical report of Texas AgriLIFE Research and the National Park Service. Available online at the Guld Coast Cooperative Ecosystems Studies Unit website: http://gccesu.org/.
    • Tyrell, T., Virden, R., Burkett, J., & Ackerman, S. (2010). "Modeling of NPS Visitation Trends, Phase I. Literature Review." Final peer-reviewed technical report to the National Park Service Social Science Division, College Station, TX: Texas AgriLIFE Research.
    • Burkett, J., Tyrrell, T., Virden, R., & Chen, M. (2010). "Modeling of NPS Visitation Trends, Phase II, Quantitative Modeling." Final peer-reviewed technical report to the National Park Service Social Science Division. College Station, TX: Texas AgriLIFE Research.


    Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

    Outputs
    OUTPUTS: A draft technical report on correlates of national park visitation over time has been completed and peer-reviewed. It is currently in the revision process. Data collection for the National Park Service Comprehensive Survey of the American Public has been completed. Draft technical reports for this national household survey are being written, and an analysis of non-response bias is being conducted. Three focus groups and five of seven regional scoping workshops have been completed in the needs-assessment phase for the new NPS Socioeconomic Monitoring Program. After completion of all scoping workshops, a working group will convene in March 2010 to prioritize critical socioeconomic indicators identified during the needs assessment for subsequent monitoring, interpretation, and reporting. PARTICIPANTS: The analysis of correlates of national park visitation over time is being conducted by faculty and graduate students from the University of Rhode Island and Arizona State University. Data collection for the NPS Comprehensive Survey of the American Public was completed by the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center at the University of Wyoming. This center is preparing draft technical reports. The needs assessement for the NPS Socioeconomic Monitoring Program is being conducted under the guidance of an 18-member working group composed of National Park Service scientists and managers, and with the cooperation of each of the seven regional offices of the National Park Service. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

    Impacts
    Because this project was in its early developmental phase in 2009, and specific outputs are still in draft form, no outcomes are reported for first year.

    Publications

    • No publications reported this period