Source: SOUTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to
ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND DOMESTIC POLICIES ON SOUTHERN AGRICULTURE
Sponsoring Institution
State Agricultural Experiment Station
Project Status
TERMINATED
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0218960
Grant No.
(N/A)
Project No.
SCX-101-07-09
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Program Code
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2008
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2013
Grant Year
(N/A)
Project Director
Karemera, DA.
Recipient Organization
SOUTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY
(N/A)
ORANGEBURG,SC 29117
Performing Department
Agribusiness & Economics
Non Technical Summary
Competiveness in international agricultural trade arises, in part, due, from changes in domestic and international trade policies. South Carolina, a southern state produces melons, watermelons, cucumbers. The impacts of changes in trade policy affecting those crops should be timely known to the farmers, trade officials and policy makers. Moreover multistate research helps agribusiness and agricultural economics share more efficiently research methods and results and avoid any work duplication due to better interaction among group members. Results are better disseminated and used. The information will be beneficial and useful to agricultural producers, policy makers, farmers, agribusiness leaders, and rural communities.
Animal Health Component
(N/A)
Research Effort Categories
Basic
(N/A)
Applied
(N/A)
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6061421301050%
6061420301050%
Knowledge Area
606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
1421 - Cucumber; 1420 - Melons;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
1.Determine economic impacts of changes in domestic policies on the competitiveness of Southern agriculture; and 2.Determine economic impacts of international institutions (WTO, IMF, World Bank), trade agreements, and government regulation on the competitiveness of Southern agriculture. The specific objectives to accomplish by 1890 Research at South Carolina State University are as follows: 1.Determine the impacts of domestic policies changes on the Southern state competiveness in production and exports of Melons, watermelons, and cucumbers. 2.Analyze and evaluate the determinants of trade in melons, watermelons, and cucumbers. 3.Evaluate the impacts of international and regional trade agreements SUCH as WTO, APEC, ASEAN; EU, MERCOSUR; NAFTA on trade in the vegetables 4.Evaluate the amount of the import trade creation and export trade diversion of trade agreements. 5.Determine impact of exchange rate volatility on vegetable trade flows: determine whether exchange rate volatility impairs or enhance trade in vegetables. This is a Multistate Research project.
Project Methods
The generalized gravity models of international trade will be the method used. The methods will be adjusted for application to global vegetable trade to incorporate the unique characteristics attributable to vegetables. A time series analysis will also be used for comparative purposes. The results will identify factors affecting the flows of trade in the above vegetables and provide statically significance importance of the factors. The results will show the impacts of domestic and international trade policy and suggest a course of action for any remedies. The project outputs will include quantitative assessments of the impacts of free trade policy or trade restricting factors/impediments to global trade in the analyzed vegetables. The results would be beneficial to vegetables farmers, trade policy official or policy makers.

Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: The audience included professionals interested in agricultural trade research studies. In particular, the main audience included academic professionals interested in international trade research with a focus on vegetables. Published refereed articles, manuscripts, and a project bulletin are available and may be useful to vegetable farmers, trade officials, and policymakers. The results identified the impacts arising from membership into major world free trade blocks: NAFTA, EU, ASEAN and MERCOSUR, and other international regional free trade blocks such as COMESA, SADC and MAGHREB. The findings determined whether or not regional integration schemes increase or decrease vegetable trade flow under trade creation and trade diversion. The findings have been communicated to audiences in attendance at seminar presentations and professional meetings. The impacts of exchange rate volatility showed any inherent negative effects of changes in exchange rates on trade flow. The results might be of interest to trade and policy makers and may prove useful for future free trade negotiations related to sectorial trade issues. The results also reached local academic and civil community members through local and campus newsletters and brochures. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Training and professional development has been achieved and facilitated by the project. As reported above, the project allowed the project director to travel to conferences to make research result presentations, attend semi-annual meetings of the S-1043 Trade Research Group. Ample opportunities existed for students to be trained and to work with faculty members and other professionals. The opportunity helped the School of Business in its efforts to maintain the AACSB accreditation. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Research results have been disseminated through published refereed journal articles, seminar presentations, a research bulletin and other research outlets in brochures disseminated locally and in surrounding communities. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? This research addressed the competitiveness of U.S. southern agriculture in international agricultural markets. The research efforts focused on the impacts of domestic policy changes, including policy changes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Regional Trade Agreements such as Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC); Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN); European Union (EU); North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA); MERCOSUR; and other regional trade blocs such COMESA, SADC and MAGHREB groups. The import trade creation effects and export trade diversions attributable to free trade agreements were evaluated. Special attention was paid to the impacts of international policy changes on exports and trade in melons, cucumbers, tomatoes, and soybeans which are among the crops produced in the State of South Carolina. Relevant, timely information is necessary as policy makers continue the current rounds of free negotiations and pursue other regional trade agreements. The major regional free trade agreements: NAFTA, EU, APEC and EU have enhanced vegetable trade flows through trade creation and positive traded diversion but also incurred some significant negative trade diversion. The trade effect is group and commodity specific. This information is beneficial and useful to agricultural producers, policy makers, farmers, agribusiness leaders, and rural communities. The study also revealed that the impact of changes in foreign exchange rates on the trade flow is negative. However, the effect is not uniform to all crops as previously suggested. The trade effect is commodity-specific and trade group specific. For example, the MERCOSUR association showed some significant trade creation but also negative trade diversion. The findings suggested that, for the above crops, minor regional trade agreements under COMESA, SADC and MAGHREB are not strong enough to elucidate significant trade creation among members. There is evidence of trade diversion from members to non members. Generalized Gravity Model of international trade in vegetables has been specified for each crop (Bergstrand, 1985, 1989); van Cooper (2001), Koo and Karemera (1994), Karemera et al. (1999). The model has been adjusted to account for the unique characteristics of vegetable production, exports and trade. The model was estimated using the econometric techniques of random and fixed estimation models required for panel data analysis (RATS, 2008) and used to compute potential import trade creation and export diversion effects. The results identified factors affecting the flows of trade in the above vegetables including the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows. We addressed the impacts of short term exchange rate volatility from long term exchange rate volatility on the global trade flows under analysis. The meat studies also presented trade effects of the major regional free trade agreements (RFTAs) such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), the European Union (EU), and (MERCOSUR), which is the agreement among a few South American Nations. The RFTAs are used to evaluate and identify the extent to which membership leads to trade creations and trade diversions. The findings showed that the EU and NAFTA significantly enhanced meat trade for members and diversion from nonmembers to members. Results for the ASEAN and MERCOSUR RFTAs suggested the two associations are not strong enough to elucidate significant meat trade expansion among members. In today’ globalized economy, more research is needed in the area of agricultural trade and policy analysis. I intend to develop joint research and collaboration ventures with colleagues in the USA and South Africa at the University of Fort Hare.

Publications

  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Poultry Trade (co-authored with Chris Davis and Andrew Muhammad) has been accepted for publication in the Agribusiness: An International Journal, Special issue. Forthcoming February 2014.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: The Intertemporal Stability of the US Money Demand Function: New Evidence from Switching Regressions (co-authored with B. Davis, and L. Whitesides), Applied Economics Letters, 2013, 20:6, 581-586.
  • Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Selected Bilateral and Regional Free Trade Agreements and Exchange Rate Volatility in the Global Meat Trade (co-authored with W. Koo and L. Whitesides), submitted to Journal of Economic Integration, February 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: The Impacts of Regional Free Trade Agreements and Exchange Rate Volatility on World Vegetable Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis (co-authored with C. Diop, D. Karemera, and L. Whitesides) ARD, 2013.
  • Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Accepted Year Published: 2013 Citation: International Black Entrepreneurship Conference: Unborn, Catching Up, or Falling Behind. University of St Augustine, Trinidad, West Indies on July 2013.


Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Southern region continues to be a major source of U.S. agricultural exports. This research has addressed the issues of U.S. competitiveness in international agricultural markets. The research efforts have identified some potential impacts of domestic policy changes, including policy changes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Regional Trade Agreements, such as Asian-Pacific economic Cooperation (APEC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), MERCOSUR, and other regional trade blocs, such as COMESA, SADC, and MAGHREB groups. The import-trade creation effects and export-trade diversion attributable to the free trade agreements were evaluated. Special attention was paid to the impacts of the international policy changes on exports and trade in melons, as well as cucumbers, tomatoes, soybeans; they are among crops produced in the state of South Carolina. Relevant, timely information is necessary as policy makers continue the current rounds of free negotiations and pursue other regional trade agreements. A Generalized Gravity Model of international trade in vegetables has been specified for each crop. The model has been adjusted to account for the unique characteristics of vegetable production, exports, and trade. The model was estimated using the econometric techniques of random and fixed-estimation models required for panel data analysis (RATS, 2008) and used to compute potential import trade creation and export diversion effects. The results identify factors affecting the flows of trade in the above vegetables, including the impact of the exchange-rate volatility on trade flows. We address the impacts of short-term exchange rate volatility from long-term exchange rate volatility on the global trade flows under analysis. PARTICIPANTS: a. Dr. David Karemera, the Principal Investigator /Project Director, oversees all project activities. He convened regular meetings with project staff including Mr. Kermit Rose, the computer programmer and the graduate students. During meetings, we reviewed completed activities and made plans for new assignments. b. Mr. Kermit Rose is a computer programmer for the project. His vast experience as a programmer at Florida State University's Computer Center has proven to be a valuable asset with the project. His duties include using large scale databases, setting up data matrix, completing model estimation, and generating running computer outputs for the PI. c. Cheick Diop is a graduate agribusiness major who worked on the project as a student research assistant. He collected trade data for the project and conducted a literature review for the PI. Partner Universities and Collaboration: Dr. Won Koo, Professor of Economics and Director of the Center of Agricultural and Trade Studies (CAPTS) at North Dakota State University. He kindly visited South Carolina State University's School of Business and held discussions with the PI on the execution of the project. We explored and discussed methodology to analyze the impact of NAFTA , EU, APEC, and other regional trade agreements on vegetable trade. USDA: Dr. Christopher Davis is from the ERS of the USDA and has participated in the development of Gravity Models for international trade in poultry and boilers. TARGET AUDIENCES: The primary audience includes vegetables farmers, trade officials, and policy makers. The results identify the impacts arising from the WTO, NAFTA, EU, ASEAN, MERCUR, and other international regional free-trade and free-trade blocks, such as COMESA, SADC, AND MAGHREB. The findings have determined whether or not the regional integration schemes increase or decrease vegetable trade flow and the amount of the trade creation or diversion. The information will be communicated to farmers and trade official through seminar presentations, published research articles in refereed journals, and bulletins. The impact of exchange-rate volatility shows any inherent negative effects of changes in exchange rates on trade flow. The results might be of interest to trade and policy officials as they may prove useful for future free trade negotiations related to sectorial trade issues. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Competiveness in international agricultural trade arises, in part, from changes in domestic and international trade policies. The impact of changes in trade policy affecting the crops should be timely known to the farmers, trade officials, and policy makers. The research efforts have addressed impacts of trade policy changes on major crops from South Carolina and include tomatoes, potatoes, peas, beans, soybeans, and cucumbers. The major regional free trade agreements, APEC, EU, NAFTA, and OECD have enhanced vegetable trade flows through trade creation and positive traded diversion but also incurred some significant negative trade diversion. The trade effect is group and commodity specific. This information is beneficial and useful to agricultural producers, policy makers, farmers, agribusiness leaders, and rural communities. The study has revealed that the impact of changes in exchange rate on the trade flow is negative. However, the effect is not uniform to all crops as previously suggested. The trade effect is commodity-specific and trade-group specific. For example, the MERCOSUR association showed some significant trade creation but also negative trade-diversion. The findings suggest that for the above crops minor regional trade agreements under COMESA, SADC and MAGHREB are not strong enough to elucidate significant trade creation among members. There is evidence of trade diversion from members to non-members.

Publications

  • Davis, C., Karemera, D., and Muhammad, A. (2012). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on World Poultry Trade Flows, accepted for publication in Special issue of Agribusiness: An International Journal, September.
  • Karemera, D., Cole, J. and Smalls, G. (2012). Free Trade Effects of NAFTA and the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Vegetable and Fruit Trade Flows, submitted to Agribusiness: International Journal, March.
  • Karemera, D. Davis, B. and Whitesides, L. (2013). The Intertemporal Stability of the US Money Demand Function :New Evidence from Switching Regressions, Applied Economics Letters, 20:6, 581-586.
  • Karemera, D. and Koo, W. (2013),. Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Selected Bilateral and Regional Free Trade Agreements and Exchange Rate Volatility in the Global Meat Trade, submitted to Journal of Economic Integration, February.


Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Southern region continues to be a major source of U.S. agricultural exports. This research has addressed the issues of US competitiveness in international agricultural markets. The research efforts have identified some potential impacts of domestic policy changes, including policy changes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Regional Trade Agreements such as Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), MERCOSUR, and others. The import trade creation effects and export trade diversion attributable to the free trade agreements were evaluated. Special attention was paid to the impacts of the international policy changes on exports and trade in melons, cucumbers, tomatoes, and soybeans which are among crops produced in the state of South Carolina. Relevant, timely information is necessary as policy makers continue the current rounds of free negotiations and pursue other regional trade agreements. A Generalized Gravity Model of international trade in vegetables has been specified for each crop. The model has been adjusted to account for the unique characteristics of vegetable production, exports, and trade. It is estimated using the econometric techniques of random and fixed estimation models required for panel data analysis (RATS, 2008) and utilized to compute potential import trade creation and export diversion effects. The results will identify factors affecting the flows of trade in the above vegetables, including the impact of the exchange rate volatility on trade flows. We have addressed the impacts of short term exchange rate volatility from long term exchange rate volatility. PARTICIPANTS: a. Dr. David Karemera is the Principal Investigator/Project Director and oversees all project activities. He convened regular meetings with project staff including Mr. Kermit Rose, the computer programmer, and the graduate students. During meetings, we reviewed completed activities and made plan for new assignments. b. Mr. Kermit Rose is a computer programmer for the project. His vast experience as a programmer at Florida State University's Computer Center has proven to be a valued asset for the project. His duties include using large scale databases, setting up data matrix, completing model estimation, and generating running computer outputs for the PI. Diop Check is a Graduate Student with an Agribusiness major who worked on the project as a Student Research assistant. He collected trade for the project and conducted literature review for the PI. He runs computer programs to generate preliminary running outputs for the computer programmer. d. Eric Uwimana is a Graduate Student with an Entrepreneurship major and has worked on the project as a student Research Assistant. She collected data for the project for vegetables' trade with African countries under the WTO. e. Emmanuel Bizimana is a Graduate Student with an Entrepreneurship major and has worked on the project as a student Research Assistant. She collected data for the project, conducted literature searches for the project references, and performed additional duties as requested by the PI. Partner Universities and Collaboration: Dr. Won Koo, Professor of Economics and Director of the Center of Agricultural and Trade Studies (CAPTS) at North Dakota State University. He kindly visited South Carolina State University's School of Business and held discussions with the PI on the execution of the project. We explored and discussed methodology to analyze the impact of NAFTA, EU, APEC, and other regional trade agreements on vegetable trade . USDA: Dr. Christopher Davis is from the ERS of the USDA and is participating in the development of Gravity Models for international agricultural trade. TARGET AUDIENCES: The main audience includes vegetables farmers, trade officials, and policymakers. The results identify the impacts arising from the WTO, NAFTA, EU, ASEAN, MERCUR, and other international regional free trade blocks. The findings have determined whether or not the regional integration schemes increase or decrease vegetable trade flow and the amount of the trade creation or diversion. The information will be communicated to farmers and trade officials through seminar presentations, published research articles, and bulletins. The impact of the exchange rate volatility will show any inherent negative or positive effects of changes in exchange rates on trade flow. The results might be of interest to trade and policy officials as they may prove useful for future free trade negotiations related to sectorial trade issues. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Competiveness in international agricultural trade arises, in part, from changes in domestic and international trade policies. The impact of changes in trade policy affecting the crops should be timely known to the farmers, trade officials, and policy makers. The research efforts have addressed impacts of trade policy changes on major crops from South Carolina and include tomatoes, potatoes, peas, beans, soybeans, and cucumbers. The major regional free trade agreements, APEC, EU, NAFTA, and OECD, have enhanced vegetable trade flows through trade creation and positive traded diversion but also incurred some significant negative trade diversion. The trade effect is group and commodity-specific. This information will be beneficial and useful to agricultural producers, policy makers, farmers, agribusiness leaders, and rural communities. The study has revealed that the impact of changes in exchange rate on the trade flow is negative. However, the effect is not uniform to all crops as previously suggested. The trade effect is commodity-specific and trade-group specific. For example, the MERCOSUR association showed some significant trade creation but also negative trade diversion

Publications

  • Karemera, D., et al. (2012). Trade, the Environment, and Impacts on State Agricultural Exports has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Management Policy and Practice (ISSN# 1913-8067). January, 2012. Karemera, D. & Cole, J. (2011). A Search for Long Memory and its Source in Some European Foreign Exchange Rates, accepted for publication in the International Review of Applied Financial Issues and Economics; (ISSN:9210-1737). December, 2011.


Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The project seeks to address US agriculture competitiveness with focus on the Southern agriculture. Indeed, Southern region is a major source of U.S. agricultural exports. Thus, the research objectives will address issues of US competitiveness in international agricultural markets. The research efforts will identify potential impacts of domestic policy changes, including policy changes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Regional Trade Agreements such as Asian Pacific economic Cooperation (APEC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN); European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and other associations including developing countries. The impacts of major trade arrangement on vegetables trade were evaluated. The amount of the import trade creation and the export trade diversion attributable to the free trade agreements were evaluated. Special attention was paid to the impacts of the international policy changes on exports and trade in melons and cucumbers which are among crops produced in the state of South Carolina. Using the generalized gravity models for individual commodities, the results will identify economic and noneconomic factors affecting the flows of the trade in the above vegetables including the impact of the exchange rate volatility on trade flows. We discussed and evaluated the impacts of short term and long term exchange rate volatility on the trade flows of selected vegetables from the southern agricultural region .The findings provided a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of the world major free trade agreements on US vegetable exports and Southern agriculture. International trade flow data was collected from Global Trade Atlas, Inc., and the financial date is available form international financial statistics in various issues. Adjustments were made to account the fact that included commodities are staple commodities. Commodity included that we use per capita income, per capita production, and population as leading gravitional variables rather the traditionally aggregated gravity variables. The project is a multistate project, and the collaboration from Won Koo of North Dakota State University is acknowledged. Reports from Dave Weatherspoon of Michigan State are also referenced in this study. Finally, comments on related topics from seminar participants at S1043 meeting in the fall at the ERS in Washington, DC helped improve the revised reports. Some results of the reports are slated to be presented at the biannual ARD conference in Atlanta in April 2011 including a presentation by an Agribusiness graduate student. More results will be sent for publication consideration in a professional journal with interests in the impacts of regional free trade agreements. During biannual meetings and professional presentations, participants received feedback on their research progress resulting in better research quality for group members. The information will be beneficial and useful to agricultural producers, policy makers and trade officials, farmers, agribusiness leaders, and rural communities. PARTICIPANTS: The following were participants on the following project: Mr. Kermit Rose, Eric Danzler, Harun Adongo, Irene Uwitonze, Diop Cheick, and Keisha Pierre Glasgow. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
A Generalized Gravity Model of international trade in vegetables has been specified for each crop. The model has been adjusted to account for the unique characteristics of vegetable production, exports, and trade. Collected trade flow data included data for melons; cucumbers tomatoes, potatoes and peas are among the data and are applied to the model. The model is then estimated using the econometric techniques of random and fixed estimation models required for panel data analysis (RATS, 2008) and used to compute potential import trade creation and export diversion effects. The results identify economic and noneconomic factors affecting the flows of trade in the above vegetables. In most cases, the estimated coefficients of income, population, and production have the expected signs and are significant at 5% or higher. The results show that per capita income, population in both exporting and importing countries are significant determinants of the trade flows. While distance between trading countries is a factor resisting trade, it is not a significant impairment to trade among the included in the analysis. The generalized gravity model includes factors aiding or resisting trade. The dummy variables representing the regional free trade blocs such APEC, ASEAN, COMESA, EU, MAGRHEB, MERCOSUR, NAFTA, OECD, and SADC are included to represent factors adding trade flows. Dummy variables are coded and introduced to identify the trade creation effect and diversion of the respective regional free trade blocs. The results vary by commodity and trade bloc. The formation of the Asia-Pacific rim under APEC and the European integration under EU, as well as the formation of OECD, has enhanced vegetable trade creation among group members. Most estimated coefficients on APEC, EU, and OECD dummy variables are positive and significant at the 1% level. These estimates show that the formation of APEC, EU, and OECD enhance vegetable trade flows and significantly contribute to trade creation for the commodities in the analysis. The same results show that NAFTA did only marginally contributions to trade creation among the three-member countries. The impact of exchange rate volatility is a hotly debated issue. We empirically provide some answers to the effects of exchange rate uncertainty of vegetable trade. Finally, as in previous studies (Cho, 2002), we found that the exchange rate volatility significantly impairs commodity flows. However, our study shows evidence that both short-term and long-term volatilities have some positive effects on trade flows of specific commodities. This finding is contrary to the findings of Cho, et al. (2002) who suggested that exchange rates have uniform negative effects on trade flows. Our evidence supports DeGrauwe and Skudelny (2000) and Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2000) who suggested that not only exchange rate volatility may vary by sectors, but it also may vary by commodity and method of analysis.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The Southern region is a major source of U.S. agricultural exports. The research intends to address issues of US competitiveness in international agricultural markets. The research efforts seek to identify potential impacts of domestic policy changes, including policy changes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Regional Trade Agreements such as Asian Pacific economic Cooperation (APEC), Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN); European Union (EU), and North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and others. The amount of the import trade creation and export trade diversion attributable to the free trade agreements were evaluated. Special attention was paid to the impacts of the international policy changes on exports and trade in melons, and cucumbers, which are among crops produced in the State of South Carolina. Relevant, timely information is necessary as policy makers continue the current rounds of WTO negotiations and pursue other regional trade agreements. A Generalized Gravity Model of international trade in vegetables has been specified for each crop. The model has been adjusted to account for the unique characteristics of vegetable production, exports and trade. It is estimated using the econometric techniques of random and fixed estimation models required for panel data analysis (RATS, 2008) and used to compute potential import trade creation and export diversion effects. The results will identify factors affecting the flows of trade in the above vegetables including the impact of the exchange rate volatility on trade flows. We address the impacts of short term exchange rate volatility from long term exchange rate volatility. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. David Karemera, as the Principal Investigator oversees all project activities. He convenes weekly meetings with Kermit Rose, the computer programmer and the student assistants. During meetings, we review the activities and make plans for new assignments. Mr. Kermit Rose is the computer programmer for the project. His vast experience as a programmer at Florida State University Computer Center has proved to be a valued asset for the project. His duties include using compiling the world trade matrix for vegetable trade, model estimation, and generating running computer outputs to the PI. Mr. Eric Dantzler, a student with a computer science major, works on the project as a student research assistant. He collects data for the project and conducts literature searches for the project references. Irene Uwitonze, an accounting major has been working for the project. Ms. Uwitonze performs data collection activities and assists in library searches and collection of reference materials and contributes to reports. Collaborations and Partnerships Dr. Won Koo, Professor of Economics and Director of the Center of Agricultural and Trade Studies (CAPTS) at North Dakota State University. He kindly visited South Carolina State University School of Business and held discussions with the PI on the execution of the project. We explored and discussed methodology to analyze the impact of NAFTA on the environment. Dr. Dave Weatherspoon is Professor of agribusiness from Michigan State University. He participated at a meeting held at SCSU College of Business. We explored and discussed methodology to analyze the impact of NAFTA on the environment. Dr. Christopher Davis, from ERS of the USDA participated in the project development and discussion of gravity models. Trainings/Professional Development Dr. Karemera presented a research paper at the Hawaii Annual Conference on Global Business and Economics in May 2009 TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audiences include vegetables farmers, trade officials, and policymakers. The results identify the impacts arising from the WTO, NAFTA, EU, ASEAN and MERCUR and other international regional free trade blocks. The findings will determine whether or not the regional integration schemes increase or decrease vegetable trade flow and the amount of the trade creation or diversion. The information will be communicated to farmers and trade official through seminar presentations, published research articles and bulletins. The impact of exchange rate volatility will show any inherent negative or positive effects of changes in exchange rates on trade flow. The results might be of interest to trade and policy officials as they may prove useful for future free trade negotiations related to sectorial trade issues. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Competiveness in international agricultural trade arises, in part, from changes in domestic and international trade policies. South Carolina, a southern state produces melons, watermelons, and cucumbers. The impact of changes in trade policy affecting the crops should be timely known to the farmers, trade officials and policy makers. Moreover, multistate research helps agribusiness and agricultural economists share more efficient research methods and results. During biannual meetings, participants received feedback on their research progress resulting in better research quality for group members. The results are better disseminated and used. The information will be beneficial and useful to agricultural producers, policy makers, farmers, agribusiness leaders, and rural communities. The study will identify the major determinants of international trade in vegetables and reveal the impact of changes in exchange rate on the trade flow and the amount of import trade creation and export trade diversion.

Publications

  • Karemera, D., Managi, S., Reuben, L., and Spann, O. (2009). The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Vegetable Trade Flow, forthcoming in Applied Economics,
  • Karemera, D., Rienstra-Munnicha, P., and Onyeocha, J. (2009). Free Trade Effects of NAFTA and the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Vegetable & Fruit Trade Flow, forthcoming the Journal of Economics Integration.