FOREST SECTOR ECONOMIC AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN MISSOURI AND THE U.S. NORTHERN REGION

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: MCINTIRE-STENNIS
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0218678
• Project Start Date: May 1, 2009
• Project End Date: Apr 30, 2014
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI
(N/A)
COLUMBIA,MO 65211

Performing Department
School Of Natural Resources

Non Technical Summary
Forest resources in Missouri and the Northern region are affected by social, economic and environmental conditions. Forests are sources of goods (e.g. wood) and services (e.g. carbon sequestration) essential to our society. This project explores future scenarios with varying conditions to determine the major challenges to the sustainable long-term management of forests. The project will investigate how programs that ensure forest stewardship can affect consumer behabior for wood products. It will also study the potential for forests to supply materials to be used for the production of energy and the willingness of industry and landowners to provide those materials. It concludes with the assessment of different policy instruments that can be used to foster forest management, promote the generation of forest-based energy, and better inform consumers on the impact of their wood purchasing behavior.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

(N/A)

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
123	0613	3010	30%
605	0650	3010	20%
610	0699	3060	25%
121	0680	3060	25%

Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics; 123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources; 121 - Management of Range Resources; 610 - Domestic Policy Analysis;

Subject Of Investigation
0680 - Other products of the forest; 0650 - Wood and wood products; 0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general; 0613 - Mixed conifer-broadleaf forests;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics; 3060 - Political science;

Keywords

forestry

missouri

sustainable management

environmental certification

bioenergy

policy instruments

Goals / Objectives
Goal: The goal of this AES research is to contribute to the economic and sustainable development of forest resources and forest-based communities in Missouri and the Northern region. This goal will be achieved by generating information that will play a key role in the decision making process involved in developing public policies to promote economic development and improve forest health conditions. Objectives: 1.Generate a baseline assessment and identify challenges faced by forests in Missouri and the Northern Region to achieve sustainable management. 2.Determine the opportunities for adoption of private forest certification programs based on the analysis of consumer preferences. 3.Estimate the role that the forest sector in Missouri can play in the national discussion over supply of renewable energy feedstocks. 4.Evaluate the potential of public policies to facilitate wood-for energy initiatives and to improve forest health conditions. Outputs: 1. List of major issues challenging sustainable forest management in Missouri and the Northern Region. Identification of potential steps to be taken towards improving current conditions. 2. Publication identifying economic opportunities for forest landowners and wood products manufacturers in the region through the adoption of certification program including price premiums and access to national and international markets. 3. Comprehensive report on the economic feasibility of harvesting for woody biomass for energy under different price scenarios. Identify critical points and opportunities for additional income for landowners and industry. 4. A blueprint for policy makers on the adoption of instruments to promote sustainable forest management while facilitating wood-for-energy initiatives.

Project Methods
Objective 1. Key social, economic, and environmental forces most likely to alter future forest conditions will be identified from available literature, recent assessments and plans, public input from state assessments and other planning efforts, targeted focus groups, and stakeholder opinion. Once key drivers are identified, forecasting scenarios will be formulated to estimate impacts of alternate levels of these drivers on northern forests over the next 50 years. A regression model will use data from the Forest Inventory and Analysis National Program to include forest resource information as dependent variable for the model. Explanatory variables will include socio-economic information to elicit the effect of new population pressures on the forest resource. Objective 2: The study of preferences for wood products is derived from a conjoint analysis. The attributes in the conjoint analysis correspond to region of origin, presence of environmental label, and price. Different levels have been identified for each product attribute. Preference elicitation will be done using a choice-based full-profile comparison approach. This method was selected primarily because it adds more realism to the product selection process. The full profiles of hypothetical products as a combination of attributes will be defined following a fractional design. Objective 3: This study will assess the use of a system to harvest and convert low quality hardwoods into biomass either alone or with other biomass wastes for the production of ethanol and other energy sources from Missouri's forests. Taking a system approach, fixed and variable costs will be identified for each stage and the entire system. Different scenarios will be compared to test the sensitivity of the system to varying price structures. Sensitivity studies in the forest sector include the work of De Jong et al. (2000) and Marland & Schlamadingert (1997). Next mail and face-to-face interviews with members of the wood products industry in Missouri and non-industrial private forest landowners will be conducted. The survey will elicit factors influencing willingness to participate in woody biomass harvestings. Data will be analyzed using t-tests and cluster analyses. Objective 4: An econometric model will be used to study the number of state-level policies supporting wood-for-energy initiatives across the U.S. The model uses the number of policies per state as a proxy for the intensity of state-level policies to promote energy initiatives. A Poisson regression will model the number of policies as a dependent variable of: Forestland information; wood products industry size; information on state renewable energy generation; and majority of state congress composition. The model will identify how the factors involved influence the likelihood of adopting wood-for-energy policies. Next, State Foresters and members of the National Council of Forestry Industry Executives will be surveyed to collect information on the potential impacts of recently adopted federal and state legislation based on ecological, economic, social and political criteria. Mail and electronic methods will be used.

Progress 05/01/09 to 04/30/14

Outputs
Target Audience: Forest sector researchers, landowners, forest products industry, policy decision-makers. I have reached out to these audiences through my publications and oral presentations including the following: journal manuscripts, book chapters, extension & technical reports as well as oral presentations. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? I took advantage of training and professional development opportunities at the University of Missouri campus. The project was also important to support particicpation in professional conferences which provided opportunities for professional development. How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Mainly through publications and oral presentations outlined in reported products. What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Nothing Reported

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? Over the duration of this AES project I have completed over 48 products in terms of journal publications, conference papers and presentations. The work on this project allowed me to secure additional funding that was instrumental to accomplish what I aimed for this project. The results from my research have direct public policy implications for which I am engaged in communitcating them effectively.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., and E. Obeng. Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration and Nutrient Cycling Effects of Tropical Forest Transition to Cacao Agroforestry Systems: A Review. Agroforestry Systems. Accepted.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Daniel, M. and Z. Cai. 2014. Missouri Private Forest Landowners Willingness-to-Harvest Woodlands for Timber and Woody Biomass. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. 43(2):279-299.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Song, N., Aguilar, F.X. and B.J. Butler. 2014. Cost-share program participation and family forest owners' past and intended future management practices. Forest Policy and Economics. 46: 3946
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Song, N., Aguilar, F.X., and B.J. Butler. 2014. Conservation Easements and Management by Family Forest Owners: A Propensity Score Matching Approach with Multi-imputations of Survey Data. Forest Science. 60(2):298-307.
• Type: Books Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Aguilar, F.X. (Ed.). 2014. Wood Energy in Developed Economies: Resource Management, Economics and Policy. Routledge. 338 pp.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Cai, Z. and F.X. Aguilar. Consumer Stated Purchasing Preferences and Corporate Social Responsibility in the Wood Products Industry: A Conjoint Analysis in the U.S. and China. International Society of Forest Resource Economics Symposium. St Louis, MO. March 16-18, 2014.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2014 Citation: Song, N. and F.X. Aguilar. Woody Biomass Supply, Efficiency, and Policy Implications in the United States. International Society of Forest Resource Economics Symposium. St Louis, MO. March 16-18, 2014.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Accepted Year Published: 2014 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Cai, Z. and A. DAmato. Non-industrial private forest landowners willingness-to-harvest: higher timber prices can increase woody biomass supply. Biomass & Bioenergy. Accepted.

Progress 01/01/13 to 09/30/13

Outputs
Target Audience: Forest sector researchers, landowners, forest products industry, policy decision-makers. I have reached out to these audiences through my publications and oral presentations including the following book chapter, extension & technical reports and oral presentations. Changes/Problems: Nothing Reported What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided? Nothing Reported How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest? Primarily through journal publications, conference presentations, extension material and online What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals? Continue research efforts and training for young researchers on the areas of sustainable wood energy, environmental certification and econometric analysis.

Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals? My research has the potential to foster new developments in the wood products industry. For instance, enhanced understanding of consumer preferences can be used to target niche wood product markets, allow producers to be more competitive as they better meet market expectations and ultimately increase industry profits and market shares. My research also studies how wood product businesses interact and how strategic collaboration can promote greater value added. Strong findings of such consumer preferences have resulted in an ubiquitous appearance of certified wood products nationwide. My most recent work highlights the importance of understand regional differences and similarities in consumer preferences and their perception of corporations’ environmental responsibilities, particularly as forest stewards. In the area of non-wood products, as the country strives to find new renewable energy sources, the role of forests as a source of woody fibers to generate energy and fuels will be ever-important. My research explores the feasibility of wood-to-energy endeavors and how competitive they are compared to alternative energy sources. Furthermore, I study the impact of policies promoting greater wood-to-energy uses and how they can provide greater cash inflows to landowners and related industries. I have published m work in high-impact journals and have constantly been asked to provide information about wood energy markets and related public policies. A recent survey of power plants stresses the importance of biomass price competitiveness in order to be able to reduce the use of coal in power plants. Regulatory actions can be important but the most fundamental driver behind bioenergy generation is economic competitiveness. Also, a technical report to be published by the US Forest Service highlights the role of wood energy in future US bioenergy supply. My work on private landowners’ willingness to harvest biomass for bioenergy will provide critical information regarding how much material may be available from privately-owned forestlands in Missouri and the U.S. Northern region for renewable energy. Our findings shows that, among private landowners, any policy tools that increase revenues from selling timber, rather than biomass, would be the most effective in increasing the social availability of wood for energy. My work in this area resulted in being asked once again to lead the Wood Energy chapter of the 2013 United Nations’ Forest Products Market Annual Review. My publications on the wood energy front continue to be highly cited. The invitation to edit a book on Wood Energy developments, including an analysis of private forest owners’ willingness to supply energy feedstock is an indication of the impact of this research. Other indicators of the impact of my work include peer-review publications, 337 citations of my work since 2007 and over $2.4 million in funding to support research efforts, active participation in professional societies, presentations at national and international conferences.

Publications

• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Yang, L.*, Yali, W., and F.X. Aguilar. 2013. Nonindustrial Family Forest Landowners Stated Willingness-to-Participate in Forest Cooperatives in Southern China. International Journal of Forestry Research. Online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/983168.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Daniel, M.* and Z. Cai*. Missouri Private Forest Landowners Willingness-to-Harvest Woodlands for Timber and Woody Biomass. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review. (In Press)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2013 Citation: Song, N.,* Aguilar, F.X. and B.J. Butler. Effects of cost-share programs on forest conservation practices by family forest owners: evidence from the U.S. Northern Region. Forest Policy and Economics (In Press)
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2013 Citation: Song, N.*, Aguilar, F.X., and B.J. Butler. 2013. Conservation Easements and Management by Family Forest Owners: A Propensity Score Matching Approach with Multi-imputations of Survey Data. Forest Science (In Press).
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., and E. Obeng. Biodiversity, Carbon Sequestration and Nutrient Cycling Effects of Tropical Forest Transition to Cacao Agroforestry Systems: A Review. Agroforestry Systems.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Mohebalian, P*. and Thompson, W. U.S. Consumers Preference for Vehicle Fuels: A Conjoint Analysis of Ethanol Fuel Blends. Energy Economics.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Submitted Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X. and C. Barbieri. Recreation Preferences for Outdoor Settings: A Conjoint Analysis of Private Forests, Public Parks And Farms. Submitted to Urban Forestry and Urban Greening.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Awaiting Publication Year Published: 2013 Citation: Barbieri, C., Aguilar, F.X. and S. Wilhelm-Stanis. Psychographic Profile of Agritourists: Motivations for Visiting Farms and Private Forests as compared to State/National Parks. Submitted to Tourism Geographies.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Other Year Published: 2013 Citation: Botard, S.A.*, Aguilar, F.X., Stelzer, H.E., Dwyer, J.P., Gallagher, T. Economic Feasibility of Woody Biomass Harvest in Missouri: Removal of Tops and Small-diameter Trees. Submitted to Northern Journal of Applied Forestry.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Cai, Z.*, and Aguilar, F.X. Consumer Expectations of Corporate Social Responsibility for the Wood Products Industry in the U.S. and China. Submitted to Forest Products Journal.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Under Review Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Cai, Z. and A. DAmato. Non-industrial private forest landowners willingness-to-harvest: higher timber prices can increase woody biomass supply. Submitted to Biomass & Bioenergy. (Under Review).
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Blazier, M.A., Alavalapati, J., and P. Lal. 2013. Assessment of Global Wood-Based Bioenergy. In: The Global Forest Sector: Changes, Practices, and Prospects. Hansen, E.; Panwar, R; and Vlosky, R.P. (Eds.) CRC Press. 281pp.
• Type: Book Chapters Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Glavonji?, B., Hartkamp, R., Mabee, W. and K. Skog. 2013. Chapter 9: Wood Energy Market, 2011-2012. In: United Nations Forest Products Annual Market Review. P. 91-101. Online at http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/timber/publications/FPAMR2013.pdf
• Type: Other Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Stelzer, H., Cernusca, M., Dwyer, J., Aguilar, F.X., and M. Daniel. 2013. Woody Biomass for Energy in Missouri. University of Missouri Extension. 8 pp.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Song, N.*, F.X. Aguilar, and B.J. Butler. 2013. Conservation Easement Programs and Forest Management by Family Landowners in the U.S. Northern Region: A Propensity Score Matching Approach with Multi-Imputations of Survey Data. Society of American Foresters National Convention., Charleston, SC. Oct. 23, 2013.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Goerndt, M.E.*, Aguilar, F.X. and K. Skog. 2013. Potential for Energy Generation from Woody Biomass Co-Firing in the US. Society of American Foresters National Convention. Charleston, SC. Oct. 23, 2013.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Cai, Z.*, Aguilar, F.X., Narine, L.L.*, and A.W. D'Amato. Non-industrial private forestland owner's willingness-to-harvest and how higher timber prices can drive greater commercial harvesting of woody biomass. Southern Forest Economics Workers Conference. Auburn, AL. March 10-12, 2013.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Song, N.* and F.X. Aguilar. 2013. Woody Biomass Energy Outlook by Energy Consumption Sectors in the U.S Northern Region. Southern Forest Economics Workers Conference, Auburn, AL. March 10-12, 2013.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Goerndt, M.*, and K. Skog. Wood Energy in the U.S. Power Sector: Challenges and Opportunities for Public Policy, Technology and Infrastructure Development. Alfred P. Sloan Industry Studies Conference. Kansas City, MO, May 28-31, 2013.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X. Tackling Illegal Trade of Wood Products: The Lacey Act and Corporate Responsibility. University of Missouri Law School  Environmental Society. Columbia, MO, November 13, 2013.
• Type: Conference Papers and Presentations Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X. Rural African Livelihoods in the Wake of a Changing Climate- Feeding a Growing World in the Face of Climate Variability. 2013 World Food Prize. Des Moines, IA. October 16, 2013.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Goerndt, M.G.*, Aguilar, F.X. and K. Skog. Drivers of biomass co-firing in US coal-fired power plants. Biomass and Bioenergy. 58:158167
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Goerndt, M.G.*, Aguilar, F.X. and K. Skog. Resource potential for renewable energy generation from co-firing of woody biomass with coal in the Northern US. Biomass and Bioenergy. 59:348-361.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Cai, Z.*, and Aguilar, F.X. 2013. Consumer Purchasing Preferences and Corporate Social Responsibility in the Wood Products Industry: A Conjoint Analysis in the U.S. and China. Ecological Economics. 95:118-127.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Aguilar, F.X., Daniel, M.* and L. L. Narine*. 2013. Opportunities and Challenges to the Supply of Woody Biomass for Energy from Missouri Nonindustrial Privately Owned Forestlands. Journal of Forestry. 111(4):249-260.
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Cai, Z.* and F.X. Aguilar. 2013. Meta-Analysis of Consumer's Willingness-to-Pay Estimates for Certified Wood Products. Journal of Forest Economics. 19: 1531
• Type: Journal Articles Status: Published Year Published: 2013 Citation: Mohebalian, P.*, Aguilar F.X. and M.M. Cernusca. 2013. Conjoint Analysis of U.S. Consumers' Preference for Elderberry Jelly and Juice Products. HortScience. 48(3):338-346.

Progress 01/01/12 to 12/31/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In 2012 I published 8 articles in peer-review journals; had 1 manuscript accepted for publication and 11 new submissions. These articles build on past and outline future research efforts on the various dimensions of renewable energy based on woody biomass and various dimensions of forest resource economics (e.g. industrial development and property rights). A major development this year is the number of papers submitted in cooperation with advisees and mentees. I have strong international ties and serve as Associate Editor for Forest Science. PARTICIPANTS: Key participants who collaborated in the project include: Stephen Shifley (Research Forester) and Ken Skog (Economics and Statistics Research) USDA Forest Service. An important contact in the state of Missouri is: Lisa Allen, State Forester Missouri Department of Conservation Jefferson City, MO. TARGET AUDIENCES: Forest sector researchers, landowners, forest products industry, policy decision-makers. I have reached out to these audiences through my publications and oral presentations including the following technical reports: Aguilar, F.X., et al. 2012. Chapter 9: Wood Energy Market, 2011-2012. In: United Nations Forest Products Annual Market Review. P. 95-106. Shifley, S. R. et al. 2012. Forests of the Northern United States. 202 p. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No modifications have been made to existing Agriculture Experiment Station Project.

Impacts
My research studies corporate responsibility in the wood products industry. Results highlight the benefits of disclosing "locality" and sustainability dimensions in consumer products. My research explores the feasibility of wood-to-energy endeavors. Findings suggests that price signals in the form of monetary incentives for biomass or disincentives for the use of fossil fuels would be a more effective policy tool that target levels for renewable energy. In hardwood forest biomass harvests must be integrated with timber removals.

Publications

• Aguilar, F.X., Goerndt, M.*, Song, N.* and S. Shifley. 2012. Internal, External and Location Factors Influencing Cofiring of Biomass with Coal in the U.S. Northern Region. Energy Economics. 34(6):1790-1798.
• Song, N.*, Aguilar, F.X., Shifley, S. and M. Goerndt*. 2012. Analysis of U.S. Residential Wood Energy Consumption: 1967-2009. Energy Economics. 34(6):2116-2124.
• Goerndt, M.*, Aguilar, F.X., Miles, P., Shifley, S. and N. Song*. 2012. Regional Assessment of Woody Biomass as an Energy Feedstock for Combined Combustion in the U.S. Northern Region. Journal of Forestry. 110(5):138-148.
• Mohebalian, P.*, Cernusca, M. and F.X. Aguilar. 2012. Discovering Niche Markets for Elderberry Juices in the U.S. HortTechnology. 22:556-566.
• Woodall, C.W., Ince, P.J., Skog, K.E., Aguilar, F.X., Keegan, C.E., Sorenson, C.B., Hodges, D.G., and W.B. Smith. 2012. An assessment of the downturn in the forest products sector in the northern region of the United States. Forest Products Journal. 61: 595-603.
• Saunders, A.*, Aguilar, F.X., Dwyer, J. and H. Stelzer. 2012. Cost Structure of Integrated Harvesting for Woody Biomass and Solid Hardwood Products in Southeastern Missouri. Journal of Forestry. 110(1):7-15.
• Song, N.*, Aguilar, F.X., Shifley, S. and M. Goerndt*. 2012. Factors Affecting Wood Energy Consumption by U.S. Households. Energy Economics. 34: 389-397.
• Cernusca, M.M., Aguilar, F.X. and M.A. Gold. 2012. Post-purchase Evaluation of U.S. Consumers' preferences for Chestnuts. Agroforestry Systems. 86: 355-364.
• Cai, Z.* and F.X. Aguilar. 2012. Meta-Analysis of Consumer's Willingness-to-Pay Estimates for Certified Wood Products. Journal of Forest Economics. [Accepted].
• Botard, S.A.*, Aguilar, F.X., Stelzer, H.E., Dwyer, J.P., Gallagher, T. 2012. Economic Feasibility of Woody Biomass Harvest in Missouri: Removal of Tops and Small-diameter Trees. Submitted to Northern Journal of Applied Forestry.
• Song, N.*, Aguilar, F.X. and B.J. Butler. 2012. Conservation Easement Programs and Forest Management by Family Landowners in the U.S. Northern Region: A Propensity Score Matching Approach with Multi-imputations of Survey Data. Submitted to Forest Science.
• Song, N.,* Aguilar, F.X. and B.J. Butler. 2012. Effects of cost-share programs on forest conservation practices by family forest owners: evidence from the U.S. Northern Region. Submitted to American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
• Narine, L.L. and F.X. Aguilar. 2012. The availability of woody biomass for energy: A social perspective from non-industrial private forest landowners in the U.S. Great Lakes Region. Proceedings of IUFRO 3.08.00 Small Scale Forestry Conference 2012: Science for Solutions. Sept. 24-27. Amherst, Ma. P 106-113.

Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In 2010 I produced 13 peer-review publications including 5 published manuscripts, 4 accepted for publication and 4 new submissions. I presented the results of my research at various professional meetings including the Southern Forest Economics Workers Meeting, Missouri Natural Resources Conference, Society of American Foresters, Forest Products Society meeting, Sloan Industry Studies conference and the International Union of Forest Research Organizations World Congress. I have been successful in assembling an excellent research team in my graduate students and post-doctoral fellows; reached out to colleagues in the Department of Forestry, Parks, Recreation and Tourism Department as well as collaborators in other Departments (Ag Economics) and institutions (University of Minnesota, US Forest Service, Lincoln University) to strengthen my research network. By the end of 2010 I have assembled a team of 5 graduate students and 2 postdoctoral fellows. Also in 2010, I graduated my first MS student and was a member of committees of a PhD (Forestry) and a MS (Geography) graduate. This year I also mentored a Normal Borlaug Fellow from Mali on the study of forest resource economics and policy. I am scheduled to conduct a follow-up visit with him in his home-country of Mali. During 2010 I taught two classes: Forest Resource Economics and Natural Resource Policy. Student feedback was positive for all my classes. I was able to continue bringing speakers from state and federal agencies to talk to my class In 2010 I became Associate Editor (Forest Economics) for the Southern Journal of Applied Forestry. In addition, I was a reviewer for Forest Policy and Economics, Agroforestry Systems, HORTScience, Ecological Economics, International Journal of Forest Engineering, Energy Policy, Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northern Journal of Applied Forestry, Journal of Forest Economics. I have served at the national level on two different task forces of the Forest Products Society (FPS) and regionally on the Midwest FPS Board. At MU, I have served on two campus-level committees (Mizzou Advantage -Sustainable Energy and Entrepreneurship minor), advised 2 student organizations (Forestry Club and Forestry Graduate Student Association) and co-led the development of a new Emphasis area of our undergraduate Forestry degree. I also joined the selection committee of CAFNR's Brown Fellowship. In 2011 I joined the Forestry Department Curriculum Committee. PARTICIPANTS: Key participants who collaborated in the project include: Stephen Shifley, Ph.D. Research Forester Sustainable Management of Central Hardwood Ecosystems and Landscapes USDA Forest Service. An important contact in the state of Missouri is: Lisa Allen, State Forester Missouri Department of Conservation Jefferson City, MO. Through the survey of wood products consumers and representatives of state agencies and universities, parties in the private and public sectors working on the management of US Forest Resources have been included in my research. TARGET AUDIENCES: Forest sector researchers, landowners, forest products industry, policy decision-makers. I have reached out to these audiences through my publications and oral presentations including: Aguilar, F.X., and H. Stelzer. Missouri Non-industrial Private Forest Landowners' Willingness to Participate in a Biomass Crop Assistance Program. Society of American Foresters National Convention. Albuquerque, NM. October 29, 2010. Aguilar, F.X., and Z. Cai. Conjoint effect of price, environmental labeling and disclosure of forest of origin on consumer preferences for wood products in the USA and UK: Potential market shares. International Union of Forest Research Organizations 2010 World Congress. Seoul, South Korea, August 23-38, 2010. Aguilar, F.X., Saunders, A., Dwyer, J. and H. Stelzer. . Economic Feasibility of Woody Biomass Harvesting for Biofuel Production in Hardwood Forests of the Missouri Ozarks. International Union of Forest Research Organizations 2010 World Congress. Seoul, South Korea, August 23-38, 2010. Aguilar, F.X., and Z. Cai. Conjoint effect of price, environmental labeling and disclosure of forest of origin on consumer preferences for wood products in the USA and UK: Potential market shares. Forest Products Society 63rd International Convention. Madison, WI. June 22, 2010. Aguilar, F.X., Saunders, A., Dwyer, J. and H. Stelzer. . Economic Feasibility of Woody Biomass Harvesting in Southeastern Missouri. Forest Products Society 63rd International Convention. Madison, WI. June 20, 2010. Aguilar, F.X. Woody Biomass for Energy Generation: Perceptions, Feasibility and Challenges. A.P. Sloan Industry Studies Conference. Chicago, IL. May 6, 2010. Saunders, A., Aguilar, F.X., Dwyer, J. and H. Stelzer. Economic Assessment of Woody Biomass Harvesting in the Missouri Ozarks. Missouri Natural Resources Conference 2010. Osage Beach, MO. February 5, 2010. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
My research has the potential to foster new developments in the wood products industry. Better understanding of consumer preferences can be used to target niche wood product markets, allow producers to be more competitive as they better meet market expectations and ultimately increase industry profits and market shares. My research also studies how wood product businesses interact and how strategic collaboration can promote greater value added. Strong findings of such consumer preferences have resulted in an ubiquitous appearance of certified wood products nationwide. In the area of non-wood products, as the country strives to find new renewable energy sources, the role of forests as a source of woody fibers to generate energy and fuels will be ever-important. My research explores the feasibility of wood-to-energy endeavors and how competitive they are compared to alternative energy sources. Furthermore, I study the impact of policies promoting greater wood-to-energy uses and how they can provide greater cash inflows to landowners and related industries. I have published m work in high-impact journals and have constantly been asked to provide information about wood energy markets and related public policies. The publications of two wood-to-energy manuscripts in the Journal of Forestry have spurred important developments. The Alfred P. Sloan Industry financed my visit to wood energy producers in Scandinavia. This visit was highlighted by the US Embassy in Stockholm with a news report titled "Mizzou Professor Visited Sweden for White Paper Input". As a result of this visit I was able to invite a Swedish company (Chemrec) to be a collaborator in a large $45 million USDA regional biofuel proposal. Further, my work in this area resulted in me being an invited author of a United Nations Economic Commission for Europe publication on the global assessment of forest-based renewable energy policies. Other indicators of the impact of my work include peer-review publications, close to $2 million in funding to support research efforts, active participation in professional societies, presentations at national (Society of American Foresters, Forest Products Society, Southern Forest Economics Workers) and international conferences (International Union of Forest Research Organizations), as well as numerous technical reports for ample dissemination.

Publications

• Aguilar, F.X., Cernusca, M., Gold, M. and Barbieri, C. 2010. Frequency of Consumption, Familiarity and Preferences for Chestnuts in Missouri. Agroforestry Systems. 79(1): 19-29. (50% contribution)
• Aguilar, F.X. and A. Saunders. 2010. Policy Instruments Promoting Wood for Energy Uses: Evidence from the Continental U.S. Journal of Forestry. 108(3):132-140. (95% contribution)
• Aguilar, F.X. and R.P. Vlosky. 2010. Gender differences in determinants of job satisfaction among cooperative extension workers in the United States. Applied Economics Letters. 17: 175-179. (90% contribution)
• Aguilar, F.X. and Z. Cai. 2010. Exploratory Analysis of Renewable Energy Private Investment Opportunities in the U.S. Energy Economics. 32(6):1245-1252. (90% contribution)
• Aguilar, F.X. and Z. Cai. 2010. Conjoint effect of environmental labeling, disclosure of forest of origin and price on consumer preferences for wood products in the U.S. and U.K. Ecological Economics. 70: 308-316. (90% contribution)
• Aguilar, F.X. and W. Thompson. 2010. Charging into the Blend Wall: Conjoint Analysis of Consumer Willingness to Pay for Ethanol Blend Fuels. Agricultural and Applied Economics Annual Meeting. Denver, Colorado. July 25-27, 2010. 19 p. Online at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/handle/61772. (70% contribution) (published)

Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: In 2009, I had 14 peer-reviewed manuscripts published and accepted (6 published and 5 accepted by journals, and 3 conference proceedings published). I also had 4 new submissions (one of which has already been accepted). I presented my research at major conferences including the World Forestry Congress, Forest Products Society International Convention, Alfred P. Sloan Industry Studies Conference and the Southern Forest Economics Workers conference. During 2009 I taught three classes: Forest Resource Economics, Natural Resource Policy, and Forest Ecosystems: The Human Dimension. Student feedback was positive for all my classes. I was able to continue bringing speakers from state and federal agencies to talk to my class. I have mentored two undegraduate students majoring in Forestry. Main service activities during 2009 included reviewing scientific manuscripts (Journal of Environmental Management, Journal of Forestry, Forest Policy and Economics, Northeastern Recreation Research, Applied Economics, International Forestry Review, International Journal of Consumer Studies and HortScience). I have served at the national level on two different task forces of the Forest Products Society (FPS) and regionally on the Midwest FPS Board. At the University of Missouri, I have served on two campus-level committees (Mizzou Advantage -Sustainable Energy and Entrepreneurship minor), advised 2 student organizations (Forestry Club and Forestry Graduate Student Association) and co-led the development of a new Emphasis area of our undergraduate Forestry degree. PARTICIPANTS: Key participants who collaborated in the project include: Stephen Shifley, Ph.D. Research Forester Sustainable Management of Central Hardwood Ecosystems and Landscapes USDA Forest Service * An agreement has been signed between the University of Missouri and the USDA Forest Service to formally collaborate on the Northern Forest Futures Project. Forest Service Agreement No. 09-JV-11242311-008. Marcia Patton-Mallory, Ph.D. Bioenergy and Climate Change Specialist Western Forestry Leadership Coalition USDA Forest Service Douglas Wallace, CF State Staff Forester Columbia, MO USDA Natural Resource Conservation Service An important contact in the state of Missouri is: Lisa Allen, State Forester Missouri Department of Conservation Jefferson City, MO Through the survey of wood products consumers and representatives of state agencies and universities, parties in the private and public sectors working on the management of US Forest Resources have been included in my research. For example, see publication: Aguilar, F.X. and H.E. Garrett. 2009. Perspectives of Woody Biomass for Energy: Survey of State Foresters, State Energy Biomass Contacts, and National Council of Forestry Association Executives. Journal of Forestry. 107: 297-306. TARGET AUDIENCES: My work on Forest Sector Economic and Sustainable Development in Missouri and the U.S. Northern Region targets the following audiences: - Policy makers at state and federal levels - Private and public landowners - Other fellow researchers - Wood products industry - Students Findings are key in aiding decision-making process among the above-mentioned forest sector stakeholders. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: No modifications have been made to existing Agriculture Experiment Station Project.

Impacts
My research has the potential to foster new developments in the wood products industry. Better understanding of consumer preferences can be used to target niche wood product markets, allow producers to be more competitive as they better meet market expectations and ultimately increase industry profits and market shares. My research also studies how wood product businesses interact and how strategic collaboration can promote greater value added. In the area of non-wood products, as the country strives to find new renewable energy sources, the role of forests as a source of woody fibers to generate energy and fuels will be ever-important. My research explores the feasibility of wood-to-energy endeavors and how competitive they are compared to alternative energy sources. Furthermore, I study the impact of policies promoting greater wood-to-energy uses and how they can provide greater cash inflows to landowners and related industries. My research critically analyzes the implementation of new policies promoting greater wood-to-energy uses. Other non-wood products include nuts and payments for land services such as climate change control. It is fundamental to provide landowners with accurate market intelligence to support land management decisions. For example, my research finds strong prospects for specialty organic-certified, locally-grown nuts in Missouri. Thus, options such as carbon sequestration contracts and non-traditional agroforestry systems should be evaluated. Other indicators of the impact of my work include 22 peer-review publications, over $1.7 million in funding to support research efforts, active participation in professional societies, presentations at national and international conferences, as well as numerous technical reports for ample dissemination. In 2009, I was the recipient of a University of Missouri Research Council International Faculty Travel award (to attend World Forestry Congress). One of my graduate advisees was the recipient of the 2009 Southern Growth Policies Board Fellowship.

Publications

• PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL MANUSCRIPTS: Aguilar, F.X. and A. Saunders. 2010. Policy Instruments Promoting Wood for Energy Uses: Evidence from the Continental U.S. Journal of Forestry. [Accepted].
• Barbieri, C. and F.X. Aguilar. 2010. Thinking beyond Property Rights and Open Access: The Ius In Re as a Framework for Developing Tenure Institutions for Renewable Natural Resources. Society and Natural Resources. [Accepted].
• Aguilar, F.X. 2010. Location Preferences in the Softwood Lumber Industry in the United States. Applied Economics. [Accepted].
• Aguilar, F.X., Cernusca, M., Gold, M. and Barbieri, C. 2010. Frequency of Consumption, Familiarity and Preferences for Chestnuts in Missouri. Agroforestry Systems. (Invited for special issue).
• Aguilar, F.X. and R.P. Vlosky. 2010. Gender Differences in Determinants of Job Satisfaction among Cooperative Extension Workers in the United States. Applied Economics Letters. 17: 175_179.
• Aguilar, F.X., Grala, R. and S. Bratkovich. 2009. Use of Georeferenced Data to Study Clustering in the Primary Wood Products Industry of the U.S. South. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 39(12): 2494_2504.
• Aguilar, F.X. and H.E. Garrett. 2009. Perspectives of Woody Biomass for Energy: Survey of State Foresters, State Energy Biomass Contacts, and National Council of Forestry Association Executives. Journal of Forestry. 107: 297_306.
• Aguilar, F.X., 2009. Potential for Private Investments in Wood-Based Energy Initiatives in the U.S. Energy Policy. 37: 2292_2299.
• Aguilar, F.X. 2009. Spatial Econometric Analysis of Location Drivers in a Renewable Resource-based Industry: The U.S. South Lumber Industry. Forest Policy and Economics. 11: 184_193.
• Aguilar, F.X., Cernusca, M. and M. Gold. 2009. Conjoint Analysis of Consumer Preferences for Chestnuts Attributes. HortTech. 19: 216_223.
• Vlosky, R. P. and F. X. Aguilar. 2009. A Model of Employee Satisfaction: Gender Differences in Cooperative Extension. Journal of Extension. 47(2). Online at www.joe.org/joe/2009april/a2.php.
• PEER-REVIEWED CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS: Aguilar, F.X., Vlosky, R.P. and T. Hammett. 2009. Effects of Region of Origin, Price and Environmental Certification Eco-labeling on Consumer Preferences for Wood Products. Proceedings of the United Nations XIII World Forestry Congress: Forest Development: A Vital Balance. Buenos Aires, Argentina. 13 p. [Available in CD format].
• Aguilar F.X., Cernusca, M., Gold M. and C. Barbieri. 2009. Frequency of Consumption and Preferences for Chestnuts in Missouri. In: Gold, M.A. and Hall M. (ed). Proceedings of the 11th North American Agroforestry Conference. Agroforestry Comes of Age: Putting Science into Practice. Columbia, MO. pp. 493_504
• Barbieri, C., Cernusca, M., Gold, M. and F.X. Aguilar. 2009. Attendance Motivations behind the Missouri Chestnut Roast festival. In: Gold, M.A. and Hall M. (ed). Proceedings of the 11th North American Agroforestry Conference. Agroforestry Comes of Age: Putting Science into Practice. Columbia, MO. pp. 505_512.