Source: UNIV OF WISCONSIN submitted to NRP
EXPANSION OF BLACK BEAR POPULATIONS INTO AGRICULTURAL REGIONS OF WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0215157
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2008
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2012
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIV OF WISCONSIN
21 N PARK ST STE 6401
MADISON,WI 53715-1218
Performing Department
FOREST AND WILDLIFE ECOLOGY
Non Technical Summary
Black bears (Ursus americanus) disperse (move away from their mother's home range to establish their own [Howard 1960, Lidicker 1975]) after emergence from the winter den when cubs become sub-adults (15-17 months old, Rogers 1987, Pelton 2000). Dispersers are uniquely important from ecological and management perspectives because their behavior and survival determines how a population expands into unoccupied territory. Consequently, dispersering individuals often become recurrent nuisance problems. Wisconsins central forest is a discrete region of mostly oak (Quercus spp.) and pine (Pinus spp.) forest in west central Wisconsin. Except for the central forest region, the southern two thirds of Wisconsin is largely agricultural land. Thus, the central forest bear population occupies an island of largely favorable bear habitat embedded in a matrix of habitat that is largely unfavorable due mostly to lack of forest cover and but also to an intolerance (or potential intolerance) of bears because of the agricultural damage they can cause. Agricultural trends in Wisconsin indicate reduced active farms and concomitant reduction in acreage devoted to farming (1984 to 2004). Cessation of farming and conversion of some farms to recreational properties (hunting properties) suggests that the agricultural matrix surrounding the central forest is slowly becoming better bear habitat and the central forest bear population has probably grown substantially (Wisconsin DNR, unpublished). Not surprisingly, more dispersing bears are leaving the central forest region and entering the surrounding agricultural matrix resulting in increased conflicts with agriculturalists, expanded opportunity for bear hunters, and new pressures on ecological communities. Responsible Management of bears in southern Wisconsin requires information on the temporal and spatial characteristics associated with the spatial expansion of bears populations outside forest areas. This project seeks to use information on bear dispersal to predict population expansion into agricultural areas and give managers a tool to proactively address depredation.
Animal Health Component
70%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
10%
Applied
70%
Developmental
20%
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
1250830107050%
1350830107050%
Knowledge Area
135 - Aquatic and Terrestrial Wildlife; 125 - Agroforestry;

Subject Of Investigation
0830 - Wild animals;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;
Goals / Objectives
Goals: I propose to exploit rigorous analysis strategy (e.g Turchin 1991) and newly available GPS (Geographic Positioning System) collars to build a predictive model of population expansion for agro-forest dwelling bears that incorporates habitat heterogeneity. In addition to information on dispersal, additional critical elements of the model will include a rigorous estimate of local bear density based on tetracycline marking and recovery of harvested bears and an estimate of bear productivity and its temporal variance based on archived harvest data. Likely Results and Application: 1. A predictive model of expansion for the central forest black bear population. This model will be useful for predicting how the distribution of bears will change under different harvest (which influences the number of dispersers) and landscape change (which influences the behavior of dispersers) scenarios. This information will be useful for setting harvest quotas and for predicting bear damage to agriculture. 2. A rigorous estimate of bear density. The central forest bear population is relatively young having reached a harvestable size only relatively recently. Consequently, DNR population models which are based on reconstruction and accounting techniques are believed to suffer from poor precision. A rigorous estimate of bear density would be useful for calibrating current understanding of population trend and provide a starting point for developing more reliable models. 3.Enhanced understanding of linkages between black bear life history and the changing agro-forested region of central Wisconsin. Black bears have great cultural, economic and ecological significance in Wisconsin. Despite its importance to life history characteristics, dispersal behavior and its relevance to population dynamics is very poorly understood. This information will enhance the knowledge base supporting the conservation and appreciation of Wisconsin Black bears.
Project Methods
Estimating the number of dispersing black bears: The number of dispersal aged bears (i.e. yearlings emerging from the den after their first birthday) is a function of the density of the bear population, adult sex ratio, age-specific reproduction of females, and first-year survival of bear-cubs. Estimation of the bear population will be accomplished with using mark recapture techniques (Garshelis and Visser 1997). Field sampling protocols follow Garshellis and Visser (1997) and analysis be conducted using Chapmans estimator (Thompson et al. 1998) or closed capture models in program MARK (White and Burnham 1999). Age specific reproduction for female bears will be calculated from characteristics of harvested bears. Wisconsin DNR has archived microscope slides of bear teeth that were prepared for age estimation via cementum annuli (Marks and Erickson 1966, Stoneberg and Jonkel 1966). In addition to age, reproductive histories can be reconstructed from the cementum characteristics of female bears. Coy and Garshelis (1992) developed a statistical model for reconstructing reproductive histories for black bears in Minnesota. Sex ratio, population age structure, and survival and associated variances will be estimated from harvest statistics. These data will be used to parameterize a stochastic stage-based population model for central forest bears (Caswell 2001). Yearlings are the age class that typically disperses (Rogers 1987), thus the model will be used to predict means and 95% confidence intervals for recruitment of male and female yearling bears. Estimating movement parameter distributions for yearling bears: I propose to outfit an additional 12 yearling bears (6 males, 6 females) during each of 2 years (winters of 2008-2009 and 2009-2010, 24 bears total) to characterize the movements of yearling bears as they disperse (or as family break up occurs). Yearlings denned with their mothers will be outfitted with GPS collars programmed to begin collecting fixes upon emergence in the spring . Collars will be programmed to record regular fixes until denning the following winter. Parameter distributions for movement speed, movement duration, and turning angles will be calculated from the individual movement records of collared bears. Constructing a predictive model of range expansion: I will use Turchins (1991) method to assign occupation probabilities to patch and non-patch habitats in the central forest and the surrounding agro-forested landscape. I will then calculate the expected size of the yearling cohort based on the population analysis. The predictive model will involve randomly assigning available yearling bears to habitat patches based on the relative magnitude of each patch occupation probability and subject to initial starting points within the known occupied regions of the central forest. Plausible population expansion scenarios will be identified by Monte Carlo simulations using population input parameters.

Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Activities included the radio-collaring of 19 yearling (dispersal-aged) American black bears in central Wisconsin (2006-2010) and subsequent radio-tracking during the period between emergence from hibernation, shortly after their second birthday, until death or hibernation the following fall. We analyzed telemetry-based movements with respect to agricultural and non-agricultural habitat patterns. This research supported a graduate student who completed 2 graduate degrees in the department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology. Events included training in capture and telemetry techniques and several winter den visits where local people were able to watch researchers handle sedated bears and learn about bear ecology in agricultural areas. Products included a data-base on GPS-derived bear locations in central Wisconsin and training leading to 3 graduate degrees in Forest and Wildlife Ecology. Dissemination was accomplished through bear den-site visits with the public and through direct communication with the bear management committee of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the science director for the Wisconsin Bear Hunter's Association, both of whom were collaborators. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals included T. R. Van Deelen (project PI), K. D. Malcolm and D. J. MacFarland (graduate students in Wildlife Ecology), and M. Gappa (hourly staff). Partner Organizations included the University of Wisconsin-Madison, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and the Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association. Training and professional development included the training of 2 graduate students. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences were the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources' black bear managers and the citizens of Wisconsin (landowners, hunters, wildlife enthusiasts) with an interest in black bear conservation. Efforts to deliver knowledge included regular (at least 2X yearly) formal meetings with Wisconsin's bear management team (with delivery of theses and manuscripts produced), presentations at scientific meetings (17 since 2005), and den site visits during field work where black bear ecology was discussed. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
Change in knowledge resulted from observations on the six of 10 (60%) male and 1 of 9 (11%) female yearling black bears that dispersed, with a maximum straight line dispersal distance of 89.6 km. Dispersal directions were not random, with five of 7 (71%) bears dispersing to the southeast, and 3 following a forested corridor in that direction. Four male bears made long-range (>20 km) movements then returned to familiar sites before settling. Movement, activity, and habitat preferences were all influenced by season and dispersal status. Yearling bears were more active, traveled greater distances per time interval, and reversed course less often during the dispersal season (4 May - 1 October) than other times of the year. Distances traveled per time step were greater among dispersers than non-dispersers. Dispersing bears traveled near waterways and wetlands relative to non-dispersers during the seasons when large-scale movements were more common, and were closer to roads, on average, across seasons. Mortality for dispersers and non-dispersers of both sexes was high, with 12 of 19 (63%) of our study bears killed by hunters (n =10) or cars (n = 2). Increased vulnerability to hunting among young bears occupying small forest patches could partially explain the high mortality we observed. Yearlings occupied forest patches that were < 1 km2 during nearly 10% of all locations, but generally did not remain in small forest patches for extended (> 2 days) periods of time.

Publications

  • Malcolm K. D., McShea W. J, Van Deelen T. R., Bacon H. J., Liu F., Putnam S., Zhu X., and Brown J.L. 2013. Analysis of fecal and hair glucocorticoids to evaluate short- and long-term stress and recovery of Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) removed from bile farms in China. Status: revised ms invited by General and Comparitive Endrocrinology, In Press.
  • MacFarland D. M., and Van Deelen T. R. 2011. Using simulations to explore the functional relationships of terrestrial carnivore population indices Ecological Modeling 222:2761-2769.


Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Outputs on this project are as follows: Activities: To better understand the process of dispersal in a fragmented landscape we studied the movements of 19 (10M:9F) yearling black bears in central Wisconsin (2006 - 2010). We tracked bears using global positioning system (GPS) collars to investigate movements at a fine temporal scale. We analyzed these data with respect to the landscape context of the individual bear paying special attention to its travel with respect to patches of agriculture and forest. This projects supported the mentoring of a single student who earned both a Master's and Ph.D. degrees while working on the project. The graduate student also mentored a undergraduate student. Events: We presented the research results supported by this project in 5 contributed papers at 5 professional meeting. We also hosted 2 Wisconsin Secretaries of Natural Resources on field trips as well as many Wisconsin citizens where we captured and tagged bears. Services: We have no consulting, counseling, or tutoring to report. Products: Products include data on the movement of yearling bears in the agro-forest transition zone of central Wisconsin and 2 graduate degrees in the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals: Timothy R. Van Deelen. Van Deelen was Principle investigator on this project and was responsible for project management and supervision of the graduate student. Karl D. Malcolm: Malcolm earned 2 graduate degrees on the project and was responsible for field work, data analysis and liaison with partners and collaborators. Mike Gappa. Mike was a retired bear researcher and scientific advisor for the Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association. Mike was hired on an ad hoc basis to assist with bear capture and radio-tracking. Partner Organizations included the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association. Collaborators and contacts include David MacFarland (Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources)and Karl Martin (Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources) Training or professional development: None to report. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target Audiences for this effort include wildlife managers with responsibility for managing bears and their impacts on human values as well as citizens and land-owners who are impact by black bear activity. Efforts to communicate with these audiences include regular direct meetings with Wisconsin's black bear management committee and current and pending publication of the project results in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
Outcomes of this project included new knowledge: The proximity of dispersing bears to waterways and their higher use of wetland habitats during periods of large-scale movement suggested that these landscape features may be important for facilitating the expansion of bears in fragmented landscapes. Probability of settlement in unoccupied patches could, in part, be a function of interconnectedness via waterways or small habitat patches. Much of southwestern and southcentral Wisconsin shares the juxtaposition of forest, agriculture, and forested wetlands that comprised our study area, and the riparian corridor of the Wisconsin River is the largest of several that may presently be funneling bears southward. If tolerated by people, bears will likely colonize considerably more of the state and become common in areas where they are presently a novelty. Tolerance of bears by people may ultimately be the limiting factor on their expansions in range and density because, based on their high adaptability, the ecological carrying capacity of human-dominated landscapes may far exceed their social carrying capacity. We recommend that managers and stakeholders in areas throughout the potential future range of black bears (in Wisconsin and elsewhere) take a proactive approach to identifying mutually-agreeable management goals for the species in their districts and develop plans for dealing with bears in areas where hunting is not feasible.

Publications

  • Malcolm, K. D. 2011. Responses of two ecologically similar bear species (American black bear and Asiatic black bear) to human-dominated landscapes and consumptive use. Ph.D. Dissertation, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
  • Storm, D. J., M. D. Samuel, T. R. Van Deelen, K. D. Malcolm, N. A. Frost, D. P. Bates, and B. J. Richards. 2011. Comparison of visual-based helicopter and fixed-wing forward-looking infrared surveys for counting white-tailed deer. Wildlife Biology 17:431-440.
  • Malcolm, K. D., T. R. Van Deelen, D. Drake, D. J. Kessler, and K. C. VerCauteren. 2010. Contraceptive efficacy of a novel intrauterine device (IUD) in white-tailed deer. Animal Reproductive Sciences 117:261-265.
  • Malcolm, K. D. 2008. Contraceptive efficacy of a novel intrauterine device (IUD) in white-tailed deer. Master's Thesis. Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
  • Malcolm K. D., M. Gappa, B. Kohn, and T. R. Van Deelen. 2008. Consecutive Quintuplet Litters from a Black Bear (Ursus americanus) in Central Wisconsin. American Midland Naturalist. 160:250-252.


Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During the 2005-06 winter, we radio-collared a total of 11 bears near the southern extent of their Wisconsin range, in relatively agricultural habitats. Of those 11 bears, 10 were yearlings equipped with GPS collars. The following winter (2006-07), we collared an additional 5 yearlings, 3 of which were equipped with GPS capable collars and we collared 4 new adult females. During the 2007-08 winter, we radio collared 2 new adult females, 2 yearlings, and GPS collared 5 yearlings. During winter 2008-09, we collared another 6 yearling bears. During the winter of 2009-10, we deployed collars on 3 male and 6 female yearling bears. In total, this has resulted in 7 adult females and 37 yearlings being tracked by either standard VHF radio telemetry (with locations recorded approximately biweekly) or high-frequency GPS location. GPS tracking occurred for up to 10 months while VHF tracking occurred for up to 3 years. Of the 18 GPS collars deployed between 2005 and 2008, 7 datasets have been recovered. Collar failures have occurred due to water exposure, premature battery failure, and weak VHF signal strength, prompting us to place orders for the 2008-09 winter from a different vendor. Location and dispersal data will be analyzed with respect to habitat variables and landscape features to identify factors that promote or impair bear movement and thus spatial expansion. Final results will be written up in the form of a dissertation that will be defended during 2011. Dissemination thus far has included 1 publication and a presentation to the Wisconsin DNR's black bear technical committee. PARTICIPANTS: Tim Van Deelen, PI, UW-Madison; Karl D. Malcolm, grad student UW-Madison; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
There are no outcomes/impacts to report.

Publications

  • Malcolm*, K. D., and T. R. Van Deelen. 2010. Effects of habitat and harvest method on age structure of black bears harvested in Wisconsin. Ursus 21:14-22.


Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During the 2005-06 winter, we radio-collared a total of 11 bears near the southern extent of their Wisconsin range, in relatively agricultural habitats. Of those 11 bears, 10 were yearlings equipped with GPS collars. The following winter (2006-07), we collared an additional 5 yearlings, 3 of which were equipped with GPS capable collars and we collared 4 new adult females. During the 2007-08 winter we radio collared 2 new adult females, 2 yearlings, and GPS collared 5 yearlings. During winter 2008-09, we collared another 6 yearling bears. In total this has resulted in 7 adult females and 28 yearlings being tracked by either standard VHF radio telemetry (with locations recorded approximately biweekly) or high-frequency GPS location. GPS tracking occurred for up to 10 months while VHF tracking occurred for up to 3 years. Of the 18 GPS collars deployed between 2005 and 2008, 7 datasets have been recovered. Collar failures have occurred due to water exposure, premature battery failure, and weak VHF signal strength, prompting us to place orders for the 2008-09 winter from a different vendor. Location and dispersal data will be analyzed with respect to habitat variables and landscape features to identify factors that promote or impair bear movement and thus spatial expansion. Final results will be written up in the form of a dissertation that will be defended in May of 2010. Dissemination thus far has included 1 publication submitted for review and a presentation to the Wisconsin DNR's black bear technical committee. PARTICIPANTS: Tim Van Deelen, PI, UW-Madison; Karl D. Malcolm, grad student; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target Audience is the Black Bear Management program in Wisconsin and the larger community of Natural Resources Scientists who deal with management of large mammals in complex bio-social settings. PI Van Deelen is a member of Wisconsin's bear management technical committee and will communicate with them directly. Communication with the large community of Natural Resource Scientists will occur through publication of study results in reputable scientific journals and through scientific meetings held annually. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Data collection and analysis are ongoing as we plan to collect, deploy, and replace collars on previously collared and new bears during the 2009 field season (Feb-March, 2010). We also plan to expand the spatial scope of this project to include tracking bears in similar fringe habitats of Michigan. The project is expected to contribute to the following: Improve the understanding of habitat use and spatial navigation by young bears traveling in unfamiliar habitats. Develop a predictive model of the spatial expansion southward of the bear population in the Midwest based on landscape composition. Identify areas currently uninhabited by bears where management planning is likely to be prudent based on future expansion of bear range.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period


Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: During the 2005-06 winter, we radio-collared a total of 11 bears near the southern extent of their Wisconsin range, in relatively agricultural habitats. Of those 11 bears, 10 were yearlings equipped with GPS collars. The following winter (2006-07) we collared an additional 5 yearlings, 3 of which were equipped with GPS capable collars and we collared 4 new adult females. In the 2007-08 winter we radio collared 2 new adult females, 2 yearlings, and GPS collared 5 yearlings. In total this has resulted in 7 adult females and 22 yearlings being tracked by either standard VHF radio telemetry (with locations recorded approximately biweekly) or high-frequency GPS location. GPS tracking occurred for up to 10 months while VHF tracking occurred for up to 3 years. Of the 18 GPS collars deployed between 2005 and 2008, 7 datasets have been recovered. Collar failures have occurred due to water exposure, premature battery failure, and weak VHF signal strength, prompting us to place orders for the 2008-09 winter from a different vendor. Location and dispersal data will be analyzed with respect to habitat variables and landscape features to identify factors that promote or impair bear movement and thus spatial expansion. Final results will be written up in the form of a dissertation that will be defended in May of 2010. Dissemination thus far has included 1 publication submitted for review and a presentation to the Wisconsin DNR's black bear technical committee. PARTICIPANTS: Tim Van Deelen, PI, UW-M; Karl D. Malcolm, grad student; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Wisconsin Bear Hunters Association. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target Audience is the Black Bear Management program in Wisconsin and the larger community of Natural Resources Scientists who deal with management of large mammals in complex bio-social settings. PI Van Deelen is a member of Wisconsin's bear management technical committee and will communicate with them directly. Communication with the large community of Natural Resource Scientists will occur through publication of study results in reputable scientific journals and through scientific meetings held annually. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Data collection and analysis are ongoing as we plan to collect, deploy, and replace collars on previously collared and new bears during the 2009 field season (Feb-March, 2009). We also plan to expand the spatial scope of this project to include tracking bears in similar fringe habitats of Michigan. The project is expected to contribute to the following: Improve the understanding of habitat use and spatial navigation by young bears traveling in unfamiliar habitats. Develop a predictive model of the spatial expansion southward of the bear population in the Midwest based on landscape composition. Identify areas currently uninhabited by bears where management planning is likely to be prudent based on future expansion of bear range.

Publications

  • No publications reported this period