Source: OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY submitted to NRP
EDUCATION, CAREERS AND MIGRATION OF RURAL YOUTH: WHAT'S HAPPENING TO RURAL AMERICA'S FUTURE?
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0213587
Grant No.
2007-35401-18861
Cumulative Award Amt.
$403,165.53
Proposal No.
2008-01330
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Sep 15, 2007
Project End Date
Nov 14, 2011
Grant Year
2008
Program Code
[62.0]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
1680 MADISON AVENUE
WOOSTER,OH 44691
Performing Department
COLLEGE OF HUMAN ECOLOGY
Non Technical Summary
Understanding the factors that shape the educational, career and residential aspirations of rural youth and the forces that determine success in meeting these goals is critical for the future of rural areas and small towns. The loss of young adults from rural areas and from 'rust belt' cities has triggered concern among researchers and policy makers about the future viability of areas with declining populations and changing economic conditions. Studies of migration streams have documented a steady net out-migration of rural youth and young adults from nonmetropolitan counties. Few studies include information on career and migration plans of youth that can help us to understand how migration decisions are associated with other important life decisions. These decisions ultimately affect the well-being of rural youth and rural communities. To more fully understand the aspirations, attitudes and decisions that shape the future of rural youth and communities it is essential to examine individual youth aspirations and behaviors and how these are influenced by family, peers, school and community. This study focuses directly on youth in rural America, their paths to future success or stagnation in adulthood, and implications for rural communities and rural development strategies. The proposed study design, to combine an on-going primary data collection effort (Rural Youth Education Project) with secondary data from two large and nationally representative samples of American youth (Add-Health and NLSY97), is optimal because it allows us to address research questions critical to understanding both the well-being of rural youth and development strategies for rural America. Although data from the Rural Youth Education Project is not representative of the U.S. population of rural youth, its high quality and unique domain of questions (education, career and migration, plus explanatory factors) more than justifies its inclusion. We are aware of no other data set with questions that allow researchers to examine the intersections of education, career and migration aspirations and attainment. Migration scholars note that individual level attitudinal data that helps explain migration decisions is critical and is lacking. For researchers examining adolescent educational and career attainment, residential migration is usually not part of the conceptual model, and when it is included is thought of as and outcome resulting from attainment goals rather than an integral part of the attainment process. Our rural focus has allowed us to recognize the intersection of education, career and migration for rural youth and rural communities and we can only do this with the RYE data. Even though data from the two secondary sources won't allow us to examine this process among a representative sample, we are able to closely examine of multiple contextual levels on the outcomes of interest, and make rural-urban comparisons. Thus, it is the combination of these data sources that makes the proposed project compelling and unique.
Animal Health Component
25%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
75%
Applied
25%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
80660993080100%
Knowledge Area
806 - Youth Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6099 - People and communities, general/other;

Field Of Science
3080 - Sociology;
Goals / Objectives
The main objective of this study is to better understand the factors influencing educational, career, and residential aspirations and attainment of todays rural youth. An essential part of this understanding is comparing these processes for rural and urban youth, for minority youth, and for youth from different types of communities. We are particularly interested in the intersection of educational and career attainment processes and residential choice and migration. We expand the traditional definition of education to include vocational and trade training programs that offer job skills and/or certifications and provide career options for those not seeking college educations. Specifically, we will address the following research questions. 1. What are the educational, career, and residential aspirations of rural adolescents and how are they influenced by the characteristics of the youth and their families and peers, and by youth involvement in their school and community? How do the characteristics of the community/place in which adolescents live influence their aspirations? 2. How do educational, career and residential aspirations change over time and what are the factors that affect changes in aspirations? How do educational, career and residential aspirations intersect? 3. What are the forces that influence youth success in achieving their educational, early career and residential aspirations? What are the educational, career, and residential paths that youth take as they move into early adulthood? For each of the questions above, we will examine gender differences, and to the extent possible given data limitations, we will compare rural and urban youth and white, African American and Latino youth. To address these questions we propose to use three data sets. First, we seek funding to collect and analyze the final three waves of data from a longitudinal study of a sample of approximately 1,500 rural Pennsylvania students who were in the 7th and 11th grades in Wave 1. We also request support to add two additional school districts with high proportions of Latino students to the rural Pennsylvania sample. We also plan to analyze secondary data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). Our plan to use information from an individual level panel study of rural Pennsylvania youth and secondary data from Add Health and NLSY97 allows us to compare the experiences of Pennsylvania rural youth with two nationally representative samples of rural and urban youth
Project Methods
The methodology is organized around the research questions we pose. Question 1: What are the educational, career, and residential aspirations of rural and urban adolescents and how are they influenced by individual, family, peers, school and community? To address this question we propose to estimate separate multivariate models for each outcome (educational aspirations, career aspirations, and residential aspirations). Either logistic regression models or multinomial logistic regression models will be used, depending on the measurement of the dependent variable. All three data sets will be used to model educational aspirations. Career aspirations also will be modeled using either logistic regression or multinomial logistic regression, depending on the categories of the dependent variables. Because of our interest in youth out-migration, we would begin with a dichotomous categorization of residence aspirations: in or near home town and not in or near home town. Additional measures would include more detail comparing rural, small city and large city preferences. Question 2: How do educational, career and residential aspirations change over time and what are the factors that affect changes in aspirations? The panel nature of each of the data sets allows us to examine changes in educational aspirations over time. We plan to begin by estimating simple change models, where the dependent variable reflects whether or not a youth reports a different aspiration in the second (or later) wave of data collection, than in the first wave. Changes would be determined separately for education, career and residential aspirations. The second step would consider the type of change (for example, did educational aspirations change from high school to 4 year college, or did they change from 4 year college to trade/vocational training?). Similar comparisons of career and residential aspiration change would be developed using the general categories of occupations and residence identified in Question 1. Modeling strategies would be quite similar to those described for Question 1. One important difference is that the independent variables in the first set of models will be measured using values reported at T1. In the second series of models, the question would focus on how changes in adolescents lives influence change in aspirations. Question 3: What are the forces that influence youth success in achieving their educational, early career, and residential aspirations? We would begin addressing this question by assessing the proportion of youth who achieved their educational goals, were still following their career aspirations, and if they had acted on their residential aspirations. In exploring this success, we are particularly interested in whether youth from rural areas are more or less successful in achieving their goals than their urban counterparts. The initial set of attainment models will be fairly straightforward logistic or multinomial logistic regression models with individual level covariates as explanatory variables. We then will follow the strategy outlined above for estimating multilevel models to assess the influence of local conditions on attainment.

Progress 09/15/07 to 11/14/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The main outputs from this project involved data collection and analysis. We completed a total of four waves of data collection from approximately 1,500 rural youth over a six year period. The fourth and final wave of data collection was just recently completed. These were entirely survey data collected through multiple methods (in school, mail home surveys, phone surveys, and internet surveys). We also organized and analyzed date from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data files. This includes organizing and analyzing over 30 data files across over 30 years. The focus was on the migration data and used both the public and restricted data files. We have now coded migration variables (any moves, moves within counties, moved between counties, cumulative moves, return moves to the county of origin) for all respondents for all waves of data collection. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Community leaders, extension educators, educators and parents PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
The significant outcomes from this study mostly involve increased knowledge about life asipirations and future attainment. For example, prior to this study researchers assumed that educational and other aspirations were formed somewhere in mid adolescence and remained stable. Our study actually measured aspirations from age 12 until age 19 in the younger cohort and documents the stability and change in aspirations across adolescence and early adulthood, and also what factors are associated with stability and change in aspirations. This project also produced new knowledge about migration behavior in early adulthood. The NLSY79 and NLSY97 projects have been collection migration and residential mobility data for years now, but none have used these data to study migraion behvior. We've organized one of the most complete set of migration variables that allows us to document migration events throughout early adulthood in both the 1979 and 1997 samples.

Publications

  • Snyder, A. 2011. "Patterns of Family Formation and Dissolution in Rural America and Implications for Well-Being." In, Smith, K. (ed) Economic Restructuring in Rural America, Penn State Press Rural Studies Series.


Progress 09/15/09 to 09/14/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This project produced several outputs last year. First, we devoted time to analyzing the three waves of RYE data. This was used to develop research papers and also to determine questions for the wave 4 survey. We also focused time and resources organizing and recoding the NLSY79 and NLSY97 secondary data files that we're using as comparison data sets. Second, the RYE data were presented at a special session on rural youth development at the 2010 annual conference of the Society for Research on Adolescence, at an invited seminar presentation at Cornell University September 2011, and at an in-service workshop planned for 4-H extension educators in Ohio in April 2010. The findings from this study have been disseminated to 4-H extension educators in Ohio, several fact sheets have been produced using the RYE data that have been disseminated to RYE participants and are also available on the RYE project web site for the public. PARTICIPANTS: Anastasia Snyder, PI, has participated in all aspects of the project. This includes developing survey materials, analyzing data files, writing research papers and fact sheets. Diane McLaughlin, co-PI, has also participated in all aspects of the project. This includes developing survey materials, analyzing data files, writing research papers and fact sheets. Mary Ann Demi, graduate student, has analyzed data files and written research papers. Bohyun Jang, graduate research assistant, has focused her attention organizing and recoding the secondary data from the NLSY79 and NLSY97. She also conducts literature reviews. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audience for the RYE project research findings are mainly educators who work directly with rural youth. We have suceeded in reaching 4-H educators in Ohio with an in-service workshop aboutyouth development that included a focus on educational aspirations in April 2010. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
The findings from the RYE study have increased the knowledge we have about how youth aspirations develop from early to late adolescence. This is new information provided by the RYE project because until now aspirations were assumed to form somewhere around age 15 and remain relatively stable thereafter. The RYE study finds that aspirations actually form as early as 12, and that those with relatively high aspirations (regarding education, careers, and migration) have more stable aspirations compared to those with lower aspirations. Extension educators, schools, and community groups can use this information when developing and implementing their educational programs for youth. This knowledge can change the content and timing of educational programs. For example, engaging youth in discussions about their future aspirations should probably occur earlier than is typically done, and even 12 year olds are capable of meaningful thinking and discussion about future life goals.

Publications

  • Demi, M.A., McLaughlin, D.K., and Snyder, A.R. 2009. Rural Youth Residential Preferences: Understanding the Youth Development-Community Development Nexus. Community Development,40(4), 311-330.
  • Demi, M.A., Coleman-Jensen, A., and Snyder, A.R. 2010. The Rural Context and Secondary School Enrollment: An Ecological Systems Approach. Journal of Research in Rural Education, 25(7).


Progress 09/15/08 to 09/14/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This year we collected the third wave of data for the RYE project. The total sample size for wave 3 is XXXX. We now have a panel data base of the RYE participants from wave1--wave3. We also organized and analysed data from wave 1-wave 11 of the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 Cohort. Three papers from the RYE project were presented at professional conferences this year. Two were presented at the 4th annual Emerging Adulthood conference in Atlanta, GA in October 2009, and another paper was presented at the National Conference on Rural Education at the University of North Carolina in November 2009. The project also presented at an extension in-service workshop in September, 2009 at the Ohio State University on helping tweens develop educational aspirations using data from the RYE study. PARTICIPANTS: Anastasia R. Snyder, Associate Professor of Human Development and Family Studies, Ohio State University Diane McLaughlin, Professor of Rural Sociology and Demography, Penn State University Mary Ann Demi, Research Associate, Penn State University TARGET AUDIENCES: Educators, community leaders and policy makers for rural schools and communities PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
The results of this project are relevant for rural families, communities and schools that are struggling with the competing demands of providing a good education to rural youth, and also maintaining their population base, in at least three ways. First, this project provides new information about how educational, migration and occupational goals develop, change through adolescence, and are acted upon by rural youth. Communities and schools can use this information to help shape these aspirations that are directly related to educational attainment of rural youth, and population change. Second, communities can think about local policies that can hopefully provide better opportunities for rural youth and young adults if they want to maintain a rural populations and not loose their best and brightest to out-migration. Two new applied research reports that aim to extend the research knowledge learned in this study to the general public, in collaboration with the Carsey Institute for Rural Families and Communities at the University of New Hampshire, provide several concrete suggestions in this area. Policies that promote economic development and access to higher education closer to home should reduce out-migration of youth with high aspirations. Third, because this study is occuring during a time of serious economic stress for many rural families in the U.S., our study provides current data on how youth aspirations and family plans for postsecondary education are affected by the current economic climate. This information can be used to inform programs and policies that provide financial support for college education, and help youth and their families make decisions about college, trade schools and other post secondary educational opportunities. The final wave of this study, to be collected next year, will provide insight into the decisions that youth make regarding work, schooling, or combining these two after leaving high school. These data will allow us to examine how youth educational aspirations and parental educational expectations change, if at all, as a result of the current economic crisis, and the implications of this change.

Publications

  • Demi, M.A, McLaughlin, D.K. and Snyder, A.R. (2009) "Rural Youth Residential Preferences: Understanding the Youth Development-Community Development Nexus." Journal of Community Development, vol 40(4), pgs 311-330.
  • Demi, M.A., Coleman-Jensen, A. and Snyder, A.R. (2010) "The Rural Context and Secondary School Enrollment: An Ecological Systems Approach." Forthcoming in Journal of Research in Rural Education.
  • Snyder, A.R., McLaughlin, D.K., and Coleman-Jensen, A. (2009) "The New, Longer Road to Adulthood: Schooling, Work and Idleness among Rural Youth." (arsey Institute Report No. 9). Durham, new Hampshire: University of new Hampshire, The Carsey Institute.


Progress 09/15/07 to 09/14/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This project has several outputs to report. First, we're 50% done collecting the wave 3 data from the rural youth. A total of 947 respondents particiated in the wave 3 from the younger cohort. We are in the process of collecting make-up surveys from approximately 75 students who were absent on the survey date. The older cohort is ready to got to the field for data collection. It will take approximately 6 weeks for the older cohort to be collected. Second, data from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 (NLSY97) has been extracted and organized for analysis. The restricted geocode files from the NLSY97 are also being organized. These files are being used to study migration patterns of rural and urban youth, comparisions by residential area, the and educational and work outcomes. PARTICIPANTS: Diane Mclaughlin is a co-investigator and also a collaborator on papers from this project. Mary Ann Demi is a graduate student and collaborator on the project. She conducts most of the data cleaning and management and also does data analysis for the RYE and NLSY97 data files. TARGET AUDIENCES: The results of this study inform extension and outreach work at Ohio State and Penn State Unviersity. Two web sites disseminate research findings from the study, and also develop related materials for outreach and extension audiences. These are: www.families.osu.edu www.rye.aers.psu.edu PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
We've learned that migration patterns are very different for nonmetro youth compared to youth from other residential areas. For example, 75% of nonmetro youth move out of their home county to either a suburban or central city county during early adulthood. This compares to approximately 20% of youth from metro counties. Thus, youth out-migration is a problem unique to nonmetro areas. This also sheds light on additional barriers to pursuing post-secondary education that could explain metro/nonmetro differences in educational attainment. We're also learning about how educational and work aspirations and expectations change during adolescence and early adulthood.

Publications

  • Demi, M., McLaughlin, D., & Snyder, A. (2009). "Rural Youth Residential Preferences: Understanding the Youth Development-Community Development Nexus." forthcoming in, Community Development: Journal of the Community Development Society