63-3048 CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONSERVATION PLANNING

• Sponsoring Institution: Other Cooperating Institutions
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: STATE
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0213043
• Project Start Date: Sep 1, 2007
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2009
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
4333 BROOKLYN AVE NE
SEATTLE,WA 98195

Performing Department
COLLEGE ADMINISTRATION

Non Technical Summary
Global average temperatures have risen by approximately 0.6 ˚C over the last century and are projected to rise between 1.1 and 6.4 ˚C over the next 100 years. Future temperature increases will be accompanied by changing precipitation regimes, rising sea levels, and altered fire and hydrological regimes. These climate-driven changes have the potential to greatly alter ecological systems. For example, over the past century, we have seen shifts in species distributions and phonologies that correspond to observed climatic changes. In general, species have been observed moving upward in slope and poleward in latitude at rates that are consistent with observed temperature changes. Conservation planning efforts are generally based on the current distribution of biodiversity. However, as climate changes, species will clearly move in response to physiological temperature constraints, changes in habitat, food availability, new predators or competitors, and new diseases and parasites. Thus, it is unlikely that today's protected lands will provide protection for the same species and the same ecological systems in the future. Developing a network of lands that will adequately protect biodiversity into the future will require explicitly taking climate change into account. The goal of the proposed project is to develop a set of tools that conservation planners can use to address climate change in the conservation-planning process.

Animal Health Component

(N/A)

Research Effort Categories

Basic

100%

Applied

(N/A)

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
123	0699	1070	100%

Knowledge Area
123 - Management and Sustainability of Forest Resources;

Subject Of Investigation
0699 - Trees, forests, and forest products, general;

Field Of Science
1070 - Ecology;

Keywords

climate

change

Goals / Objectives
The goal of the proposed project is to develop a set of tools that conservation planners can use to address climate change in the conservation-planning process.

Project Methods
For each field office, we will conduct a vulnerability assessment for a selected set of species and ecological systems in the state or region. The purpose of such assessments will be to determine which species and sites will be most vulnerable to climate change and hence where limited funds and efforts should be spent. Completing a vulnerability or risk assessment will require asking two additional questions. Which systems or species are most sensitive to changes in climate or climate-driven processes (e.g., fire regimes, sea-level rise, changes in the structure and composition of vegetation)? And, where will changes in climate and climate-driven processes likely be the greatest? Below, we have outlined four steps that such a vulnerability assessment might include.

Progress 09/01/07 to 09/30/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The climate projections produced by general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse in resolution, and in a format that is difficult for many natural resource managers, conservation planners, and regional policy makers to use. We have developed an on-line tool that makes climate data, climate forecasts, and trend analyses more accessible to a wider audience. The tool, called the ClimateWizard (http://climatewizard.org), is an interactive, web-based, climate-change analysis tool that allows practitioners to analyze climate data at specific geographic locations or areas of interest and produces an interactive website displaying climate-change maps, graphs, and tables for the specific area analyzed. The ClimateWizard was recently released in 2009 and written up in the Seattle Times. To demonstrate the ClimateWizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. Dr. Evan Girvetz (of this project) was an invited speaker at The Nature Conservancy's (TNC's) Rocky Mountain Region Climate Change Science Workshop that took place in Fort Collins, CO from January 29-30, 2008. Our ClimateWizard was presented along with some of the results from the New Mexico analysis. The tool was very well received by all at the workshop. The most common question from the audience was, "When can I use this" Both scientists and policy experts in TNC want the tool because they do not have to be computer aficionadas to quickly get useful graphs and maps. All of the outputs shown in this report (graphs and maps) are available directly as shown from ClimateWizard, without any extra work required of the user. Evan traveled to the Southeast and worked with several different state government relations staff to develop presentations for political leaders in these southeastern states. In early April 2008, Peter Kareiva and Evan Girvetz attended a workshop in upstate New York for the Conservancy's New York science staff. Evan and Peter introduced ClimateWizard and planned with the NY team how the tool can support NY policy and science efforts related to climate change. PARTICIPANTS: Joshua J. Lawler, Professor, University of Washington College of Forest Resources. Evan H. Girvetz, Affiliate Assistant Professor, University of Washington College of Forest Resources and Senior Scientist, The Nature Conservancy Global Climate Change Program. Peter Kareiva, Chief Scientist and Director, Science, The Nature Conservancy. Chris Zganjar, The Nature Conservancy. George T. Raber, Assistant Professor, Geography & Geology, University of Southern Mississippi. We worked with Dr. Sarah Shafer at the USGS and Oregon State University to develop higher resolution datasets. We acknowledge the modeling groups, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) for their roles in making available the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Support of this dataset is provided by the Office of Science, U.S. Department of Energy. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences include governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations (specifically The Nature Conservancy), natural resource managers, conservation planners, regional policy makers, land managers, researchers, educators, and the general public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how ClimateWizard can be used to explore regionally and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity.

Publications

• Girvetz EH, Zganjar C, Raber GT, Maurer EP, Kareiva P, et al. (2009) Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool. PLoS ONE 4(12): e8320. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0008320. Available online at: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.00 08320, link verified 4/26/2011.
• Zganjar, C., Girvetz, E., and Raber, G. 2009. ClimateWizard web site. http://www.climatewizard.org/, link verified 4/26/2011.

Progress 10/01/07 to 10/01/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: This project started October 8, 2007. The project is designed to provide The Nature Conservancy with tools for addressing climate change. We are currently mapping and summarizing historic and projected future changes in climate for multiple regions. We have developed a web-based tool for visualizing climate-change data. I am mentoring one postdoctoral researcher who is developing tools to allow others to easily query large climate-change databases to produce maps and graphs of historic and projected future changes in climate. Events: We attended several meetings of The Nature Conservancy in Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, and Vancouver, BC to discuss some of the preliminary results of our analyses. We have also presented results at the Ecological Society of America annual meeting and the American Geophysical Union meetings. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. Evan Girvetz, Postdoc, Uinversity of Washinhgton Dr. Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy Dr. Jon Hoestra, The Nature Conservancy Chris Zganjar , The Nature Conservancy ESRI TARGET AUDIENCES: NGOs (specifically The Nature Conservancy) Conservation practitioners Natural resource and land managers Scientific community PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
There have been no outcomes or impacts of the project as of yet.

Publications

• No publications reported this period