Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/12
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Progress was made on all objectives. The most significant during the reporting period was a study of the effects of natural amenities on rural area population migration. Previous studies suggest that significant relationships exist between rural area population growth and the presence of natural amenities. Thus, understanding and predicting domestic migration trends as a function of changes in natural amenities is important for effective regional growth and development policies and strategies. It is especially important to understand and predict the effects of weather-related natural amenity variables which may undergo major variations in the future due to global climate change. In the study, we first estimated an econometric model which showed the effects of natural amenities, such as landscape and weather, on rural population migration patterns in the U.S. between 1990 and 2007. This model was estimated for 2,014 rural counties in the continental U.S. using U.S. Census, USDA Forest Service, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, USDA National Resources Inventory, Bailey's Ecoregion, and other USDA compiled data sets. This model was then used to predict the effects of changes in these variables on rural county net migration and population growth to 2060 under alternative future climate and land use/cover projections. PARTICIPANTS: Dr. H. Ken Cordell, Southern Research Station, U.S.D.A Forest Service TARGET AUDIENCES: University and government researchers; private consultants State Government Natural Resource, Environmental, and Economic Development Agencies Local Government Planning Agencies and Governing Boards PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Results suggest that people prefer rural areas with mild winters and cooler summers; thus we can expect a direct impact of climate change on population migration when areas associated with these conditions change. For example, we may observe a shift in population migration patterns from the warm and sunny southern U.S. to originally cold northern U.S. regions as temperatures in these regions become warmer (especially in the winter months). While changes in migration patterns attributed to climate change are beyond the control of local policy-makers, regions that are most likely to suffer climate-change induced population loss should be prepared with mitigating policies. Our results also suggest preference for varied landscapes that feature a mix of forest land and open space (e.g. pasture and range land). Local policy-makers in areas endowed with such landscapes should keep this in mind in formulating zoning laws and rural development plans. During the projection period from 2010 to 2060 in the U.S., changes in natural amenities were predicted to have positive effects on rural population migration trends in most parts of the Inter-mountain and Pacific Northwest regions, and some parts of the Southeastern, South Central, and Northeastern U.S. regions (e.g., Southern Appalachian Mountains, Ozark Mountains, northern New England). Changes in natural amenities were predicted to have negative effects on rural population migration trends during the projection period in Midwestern regions (e.g., Great Plains and North Central regions).
Publications
- Contributor. U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Future of America's Forests and Rangelands. General Technical Report WO-87, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Washington, D.C., August 2012.
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Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: In 2011, work progressed on a project to estimate a model for recreation visitation to different types of sites in National Forests (e.g., day use developed sites, overnight use developed sites, wilderness sites, and general forest area sites). This model was applied to National Forest sites in the Southern U.S. The results were initially disseminated to technical and general audiences through presentations at professional meetings, working papers, and a published USDA Forest Service General Technical Report. In 2011, work also progressed on project was to assess the impacts of climate change on agriculture in several, representative northern and southern U.S. counties. Climate change projections from the USDA Forest Service were used to estimate county-by-county changes in agricultural production. Preliminary results were disseminated through presentations at professional meetings and working papers. Papers are also in review in peer-reviewed journal articles. Work also progressed in 2011 assessing the impact of economic growth on environmental pollution (measured by carbon dioxide emissions) in the United States. The project was essentially a test of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis which states that economic growth will increase environmental polluton up to a point. After this point, higher incomes and stronger preferences for environmental quality will result in higher demand for pollution control and result in reductions in environmental quality. Preliminary results were diseminated through presentations at professional meetings and working papers. Papers are also in review in peer-reviewed journal articles. PARTICIPANTS: Partner organization on the Southern Forest Futures recreation demand project was the USDA Forest Service. Cooperating USDA Forest Service scientists and analysts included Dr. J.M. Bowker and Mr. Carter Betz, both of the Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service. Collaborator on the economic growth and environmental quality project included Dr. J. Wesley Burnett, Assistant Professor, Division of Resource Management, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV Collaborator on the climate change project included Dr. Ruohong Cai, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences for the Southern Forest Futures recreation demand project include public and provide forest land owners, managers and policy-makers. Target audiences for the economic growth and environmental quality project include other researchers and policy-makers at the federal, regional and state levels. Target audiences for the climate change and agricultural production project include farmers and policy-makers at the federal, regional and state levels. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
The recreation visitation project provided input into the Southern Forest Futures (SFF) project. The goal of the SFF project is to provide information to facilitate long-range planning and managments of public and private forests in the Southern U.S. Using estimated recreation setting demand equations, we projected visits to National Forest settings in the Southern U.S. from 2008 (base) to 2060. The largest relative increase in visits over the next 50 years are observed Wilderness Sites (WILD). The lowest relative increase in visits over the next 50 years is observed for General Forest Area (GFA) sites. Projected increases in visits to Day Use Developed Sites (DUDS) and Overnight Use Developed Sites (OUDS) fall in-between the projected increases in visits to WILD and GFA sites. An overall finding of this study is that visits to all National Forest settings in the Southern U.S. over the next 50 years are projected to be in the range of about 24-54%, which represent relatively minor changes. Work is also progressing on refining the estimated economic demand models. In the climate change study, we used an estimated Principal Components Regression (PCR) model to forecast the future crop yields in response to weather change projections based on three climate change models. Preliminary results showed that the southern U.S. counties generally displayed lower predicted corn and soybean yields associated with warming temperature climate change projections, while the coldest climate change projections tended to result in higher predicted corn and soybean yields. In the northern U.S. counties studied, the warmest climate change projections resulted in the similar predicted crop yields compared to predicted crop yields under the coldest climate change projections. This demonstrates that global warming trends have mild effects on crop yields in the northern U.S. Farmers and policy-makers can use these results to better prepare for the potential impact of global climate change on crop yield through adaptation. In the EKC study, based upon our empirical results we find preliminary evidence that is consistent with the traditional EKC hypothesized inverted-U shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and income. This inverted-U shaped relationship is found even after controlling for spatial dependence within the data, which seems to offer further support to the purported EKC hypothesis. Evidence we found for spatial dependence implies that CO2 pollution emissions are not necessarily a local issue. In other words, a neighboring state's demand for energy may be driving pollution emissions locally. Our preliminary results have implications for national and state carbon dioxide policies and especially for policies related to CO2 abatement and global climate change. Specifically, a local state often formulates pollution policies to best meets its own needs but ignores the carbon dioxide emissions of its neighbors. Federal policies take into account the heterogeneity of emissions between states but may formulate a national one-size-fits-all carbon dioxide reduction policy which is potentially non-efficient or economically harmful to some states.
Publications
- Cordell, H.K., V. Heboyan, F. Santos and J.C. Bergstrom. Natural Amenities and Rural Population Migration: A Technical Document Supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-146. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station, December, 2011.
- Cai, R., J. Bergstrom, J. Mullen, D. Shurley, and M. Wetzstein. How do Precipitation and Irrigated Ratio Interactively Impact Corn Yield Proceedings of the 2011 Georgia Water Resources Conference, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 2011.
- Johnston, R.J. and J.C. Bergstrom. Valuing Farmland Protection: Do Empirical Results and Policy Guidance Depend on the Econometric Fine Print Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. (Winter 2011) 33(4): 639-660
- Jakus, P.M., J.C. Bergstrom, M. Phillips and K. OBrien. Modeling Behavioral Response to Changes in Reservoir Operations in the Tennessee Valley Region Chapter 17 in Whitehead, J., T. Haab and J-C Huang (Editors) Preference Data for Environmental Valuation, Routledge: London and New York, 2011.
- Patton, D.A., J. Bergstrom, A. Covich and R. Moore. A Conceptual Framework and Benefit Transfer for Valuation of Select Ecosystem Goods and Services Provided by the Wetlands of the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge Proceedings of the 2011 Georgia Water Resources Conference, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 2011.
- Contributor on Socioeconomic Benefits indicators, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 2011. National report on sustainable forests - 2010. FS-979. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service. 194 p.
- Cai, R., J.C. Bergstrom, J.D. Mullen, M. E. Wetzstein and W.D. Shurley. Principal Component Analysis of Crop Yield Response to Climate Change Faculty Series Working Paper, FS 11-01, The University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Athens, May, 2011.
- Cai, R., J.C. Bergstrom, J.D. Mullen and M. E. Wetzstein. A Dynamic Optimal Crop Rotation Model in Acreage Response. Faculty Series Working Paper, FS 11-02, The University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Athens, May, 2011.
- Bowker, J.M., A. E. Askew, H.K. Cordell, J.C. Bergstrom. 2011. Outdoor Recreation in the South: Projections to 2060. In, Wear, D.N. and J.G. Greis, eds. The Southern Forest Futures Project: Technical Report. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-xxx. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern Research Station. (in press)
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Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Research under this project estimating demand for irrigation water was disseminated to the State of Georgia Environmental Protection Division for input into state water planning via meetings, professional presentations, publications and a public website. Research under this project estimating the value of ecosystem services and environmental amenities was provided to the USDA Forest Service and US Fish and Wildlife Service for input into National Forest and National Wildlife Refuge planning via meetings, professional presentations, publications and a public website. Research under this project estimating the value of farmland conservation easements was provided directly to farmer through personal contact and meetings. PARTICIPANTS: Research under this project was conducted in cooperation with the State of Georgia Environmental Protection Division, the USDA Forest Service, the US Fish and Wildlife Service. TARGET AUDIENCES: State and national government agencies involved natural resource, environmental and agricultural policy and management. Academic and government researchers. General public. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
A study under this project investigated how natural amenities influenced rural population migration patterns in the continental U.S. between 1990-2007. Using recent annual climate, land cover and natural amenities data, we estimated an econometric model showing the relationships between natural amenities and rural population migration patterns. Climate variables displayed significant influence on the rural migration models which holds important policy implications as we face potential changes in climate. People prefer rural areas with mild winters and cooler summers, thus we can expect a direct impact of climate change on migration when areas associated with these conditions change. We may experience a shift in migration patterns from the warm and sunny Sun Belt region of the U.S. to originally colder northern U.S. regions as we see a general rise in temperature. The IPCC (2007), in its Climate Change 4th Assessment Report also projects frequency of heavy rainfall and severe flooding with the Great Plains of the U.S. being particularly vulnerable. Heavy precipitation is deemed undesirable and directly influences rural migration patterns. Rising sea levels attributed to climate change will directly impact the desirability of rural areas along the coastline in the U.S. as IPCC projects significant increase in inundated dry land in the future. The extent of the impact of climate change on population migration and rural development on rural coastal counties will depend on the degree of vulnerability of property and risks to human health and safety from rising sea level, storm-surge flooding, and shoreline erosion. While changes in migration patterns attributed to climate change are beyond the control of local policy-makers, acknowledging its possible impact and gauging its magnitude require government and public attention. It is important for policy-makers in the regions who will most likely suffer population loss due to migration influenced by climate change to be prepared with mitigating policies and programs (e.g., improvements in public education and recreation/leisure facilities). Our results also suggest preference for varied landscapes that feature a mix of forest land and open space (e.g. pasture and range land). Local policy-makers in areas endowed with such landscapes should keep this in mind in formulating zoning laws and rural development plans. Without recognizing the role that landscapes play in attracting migrants, development of these rural counties might pose a threat to the landscape that helped to pave the way to these developments in the first place. Furthermore, since higher-income individuals most likely give more importance to scenic beauty, there is a large potential window of opportunity for these rural counties to attract higher-income migrants who can bring more money into the local economy.
Publications
- Bergstrom, John C. and Alan Randall. Resource Economics: An Economic Approach to Natural Resource and Environmental Policy Third Edition. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton, MA, 2010.
- Kaplowitz, M.D. and J.C. Bergstrom. Benefits and Costs of Natural Resources Policies Affecting Public and Private Lands USDA W2133 Regional Research Project Legacy and Current Contributions. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 39, 1 (2010): 1-8.
- Volinskiy, D., J.C. Bergstrom, C.M. Cornwell and T.P. Holmes. A Pseudo-Sequential Choice Model for Valuing Multi-Attribute Environmental Policies or Programs in Contingent Valuation Applications. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 39, 1 (2010), 9-21.
- Gill, J.K., J.M. Bowker, J.C. Bergstrom, S.J. Zarnoch. Accounting for Trip Frequency in Importance-Performance Analysis. Journal of Park and Recreation Administration 28, 1 (2010): 16-35.
- Zarnoch, S.J., H.K. Cordell, C.J. Betz, and J.C. Bergstrom. Multiple Imputation: An Application to Income Nonresponse in the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment. Research Paper SRS-49, Southern Research Station, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Asheville, NC, May, 2010.
- Bowker, J.M., J.C. Bergstrom, C.M. Starbuck, K. Sardana, and D.B.K. English. Estimating Demographic and Population Level Induced Changes in Recreation Demand for Outdoor Recreation on US National Forests: An Application of National Visitor Use Monitoring Program Data. Faculty Series Working Paper, FS 10-01, The University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Athens, October, 2010.
- Burnett, J.W. and J.C. Bergstrom. U.S. State-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Spatial-Temporal Econometric Approach of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Faculty Series Working Paper, FS 10-02, The University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Athens, October, 2010.
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Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Private working farms and forests, public parks and forests, military bases and other green/natural space in Georgia provide important ecosystem goods and services to the state and nation. Research was conducted to: 1) clarify the meaning of "ecosystem service"; 2) define ecosystem goods and services within an economic framework, emphasizing the role and limitations of substitutes; 3) summarize the methods for valuation of ecosystem goods and services; and 4) explore various approaches for their provision and financing. At least thirty studies have been conducted in North America over the last twenty-plus years that measure the economic value of farmland protection. A review of these studies provides evidence that estimated farmland protection values are sensitive to increasing acreage, regional scarcity, alternative land use(s), public accessibility, productivity quality, human food plants, active farming, and intensive agriculture. Farmland protection values are also sensitive to socio-demographic characteristics of beneficiaries. Inconclusive evidence is provided with respect to the effects of distance, agricultural land use, unique landscape features, property rights, and non-farmland amenity substitutes (e.g., green space provided by public parks). Various forms of nature-based tourism provide new job and income opportunities for people in Georgia and throughout the United States including farmers and other rural land owners. This is good news for private individuals and government agencies interested in strategies for replacing jobs and income lost during the recent economic recession, especially in rural areas where employment opportunities are typically quite limited. As metropolitan areas in the state and nation grow and become more congested, interest appears to be growing on the part of metropolitan residents to get out in the countryside and enjoy nature-based recreation and tourism. A study was conducted to learn more about how expenditures associated with specific types of human-powered outdoor recreation and tourism activities contribute to the U.S. economy. Activities studied included trail-based recreation, bicycle-based recreation, paddle-based recreation, snow-based recreation and camp-based recreation. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
In 2009, this research area resulted in a new external grant from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to develop and implement methods for estimating the economic value of ecosystem goods and service provided by U.S. National Wildlife Refuges. In 2009, this research area resulted also resulted in a new external grant from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service to develop and implement methods for estimating the effects of natural resource and environmental amenities on net migration of people into each U.S. county. Another project in this research area funded by the U.S. Forest Service was completed in 2009. This project provided estimates of recreation demand to U.S. National Forests as a function of socio-economic factors and physical site characteristics (e.g., developed vs. wilderness setting). Mean annual household WTP per acre across all previous contingent valuation (CV) studies ranges from $0.0001 in Colorado and Wyoming to $21.90 in Massachusetts with an average across all studies of $1.80. Estimated household WTP per acre across all previous conjoint analysis (CA) studies ranges from $0.0002 in Georgia to $1.87 in Ohio with a mean across all studies of $0.3463. Estimated household WTP per acre across all previous hedonic price method (HPM) studies ranges from −$37,541 in New York to $5,518 in Maryland with a mean across all studies of −$3,428. If we drop negative values (representing farmland disamenity values), the range of estimated household WTP per acre for positive farmland amenities reported in previous HPM studies is $0.0052 in Kentucky to $5,518 in Maryland with a mean across studies of $1,685. Although these per acre values may seem relatively small, the total value of farmland protection and amenities may become quite large when these per acre values are aggregated across total acres of farmland in a state. The results of this study suggest that farmland protection provides significant economic benefits to state in the U.S. including Georgia. The combined economic contributions of human-powered recreation to the US economy exceed US$590 billion annually in total gross output, supporting over five million jobs. Other studies estimate that wildlife-based recreation contributes another US$140 billion annually in total gross output to the US economy, making a total contribution of US$730 billion from both human-powered and wildlife-based recreation. Active outdoor recreation not only strengthens the US economy but also improves the quality of life for participants. The results of this study suggest that the State of Georgia, and local communities in the state, should seriously consider promotion of human-powered recreation and tourism as an economic development strategy which provides jobs and income, while promoting better human health. If managed properly, human-powered recreation and tourism can also be a clean, environmentally-friendly industry. Better human health and a clean environment also help to promote a growing and healthy economy in the state and nation.
Publications
- Bergstrom, J. (2009). Preserving Multifunctional Agriculture: Discussion. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(5), 1375-1376.
- Bergstrom, J., Ready, R. C. (2009). What Have We Learned from Over 20 Years of Farmland Amenity Valuation Research in North America. Review of Agricultural Economics, 31(1), 21-49.
- Southwick, R., Bergstrom, J., Wall, C. (2009). The Economic Contribution of Human Powered Outdoor Recreation to the U.S. Economy. Tourism Economics, 15(4), 709-733.
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Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Research has continued in my primary research thrust focusing on development of theory and techniques for natural resource valuation and application to contemporary natural resource, agricultural and environmental issues and policy. This research involves resource valuation and benefit-cost analysis related to agricultural practices, land use, water management and forest, fish and wildlife management. Much of this research is conducted in cooperation with federal, state and local agricultural and natural resource management agencies and NGOs. In 2008, ongoing research projects focused on agricultural and forest lands, natural capital and the emerging and important area of ecosystem services. Work in this area in 2008 resulted in 2 invited presentations at professional meetings including a national climate change symposium, 2 selected papers at professional meetings including the American Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting, a new research grant with the USDA Forest Service to study the economics of sustainable natural resource management, a new research grant with the State of Georgia Environmental Protection Division to study agricultural irrigation water demand, and continued research under two ongoing research contracts and grants with the USDA Forest Service (one focusing on environmental amenity demand and values and the other on estimating National Forest outdoor recreation demand). I also completed the final research and report for another USDA Forest Service grant focusing on urban ecosystem service values. PARTICIPANTS: Collaborators on ecosystem goods and services objectives included Dr. John Loomis, Colorado State University, and Dr. Thomas Brown, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service. Collaborators on recreation demand estimation objectives included Dr. Randy Rosenberger, Oregon State University, Dr. Dan McCollum, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Dr. Michael Bowker, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, and Dr. Donald English, Washington Office, USDA Forest Service. TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audiences include university researchers, government agency researchers, government resource managers, and private resource managers. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
From a natural resource and environmental policy and management perspective, there is increasing concern and interest in the valuable services to people provided by healthy ecosystems Ecosystem services are vital for many human benefits including human health, economic production and recreation and tourism. The work I am doing in this area provides information for better understanding the relationships between ecosystems, ecosystem services and the economy including ecosystem service markets and developing more effective strategies and tools for protecting and managing important ecosystem services at the local, state and national levels. Four categories of ecosystem goods and services include: 1)government seller/indivdual buyer (e.g., mineral leases on public lands); 2) individual seller/government buyer (e.g., USDA Conservation Reserve Program); 3) government seller/government buyer (e.g., federal govt. loans to local govts. for water treatment plants); 4) private seller/private buyer (e.g., carbon credit markets). Preliminary data analysis shows that in 2008 the total values of ecosystem good or service exchanges were approximately $8 billion for government seller/individual buyer exchanges, $5 billion for individual seller/government buyer exchanges, $2 billion for selected government buyer/government seller exchanges, and $760 million for private seller/private buyer exchanges.
Publications
- Dorfman, J.H., B.J. Barnett, J.C. Bergstrom and B. Lavigno. Searching for Farmland Preservation Markets: Evidence from the Southeastern U.S. Land Use Policy 26 (2008):121-129.
- Bowker,J.M., J.K. Gill, J.C. Bergstrom, S.J. Zarnoch. Importance-Performance Analysis with On-site Recreation Samples: Does Endogenous Stratification Matter Selected Presentation, ISSRM 2008, 14th International Symposium on Society & Resource Management, Burlington, VT. [Abstract: 14th International Symposium on Society & Resource Management, Book of Presentation Abstracts, University of Vermont, 2008]
- Cordell, H. Ken, Carter J. Betz, Brett J. Butler, and John C. Bergstrom. (2008) Trends in Forest-Based Recreation: Reports for the 2010 Montreal Process Indicators for the U.S. Retrieved on January 22, 2009, from http://warnell.forestry.uga.edu/nrrt/nsre/IRISRec/IRISRec8rpt.pdf
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