RURAL CHANGE: MARKETS, GOVERNANCE AND QUALITY OF LIFE

• Sponsoring Institution: National Institute of Food and Agriculture
• Project Status: COMPLETE
• Funding Source: HATCH
• Reporting Frequency: Annual
• Accession No.: 0212831
• Multistate No.: NE-1029
• Project Start Date: Oct 1, 2007
• Project End Date: Sep 30, 2012
• Program Code: [(N/A)]- (N/A)

Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
(N/A)
BERKELEY,CA 94720

Performing Department
Agricultural and Resource Economics, Berkeley

Non Technical Summary
The project will model important policies that affect the rural sector, such as biofuels increase and air quality regulations, and find the effect of these policies on employment.

Animal Health Component

50%

Research Effort Categories

Basic

50%

Applied

50%

Developmental

(N/A)

Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)	Subject of Investigation (SOI)	Field of Science (FOS)	Percent
608	6010	3010	100%

Knowledge Area
608 - Community Resource Planning and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6010 - Individuals;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;

Keywords

biofuel

employment

rural agriculture

air quality

Goals / Objectives
1. Identify and analyze ongoing and potential changes in rural labor markets and the impacts of migration, commuting, and workforce development policies on rural labor markets. 3. Investigate the changing organizational structure, tax policy and fiscal standing of local governements and the implact of tax and/or expenditure limitations on local governmental fiscal stress and economic growth in rural areas. 4. Develop a better understanding of the role of amenities in rural development and the impact of economic and social changes on the quality of life in rural communities.

Project Methods
There are two main approaches that will be used in this project. The first approach is time series analysis. By finding data over many years on employment by sector and also finding data on exogenous activities, like the weather driven part of farm output or the federally determined part of timber harvest, one can find the effects of policies or activities on employment in the rural sector. The second approach is to use policy models such as computable general equilibrium models to find the effects of economic changes, such as the increase in biofuel use, on rural employment and well being. The first approach, time series, is often limited by the data or by the availability of series that are not endogenous to the problem at hand. The second approach is limited by the need to estimate a very large number of parameters from limited data. Use of these two types of approaches together is also possible. The calibration of a policy model to time series data may provide better estimates of policy effects than the methods taken individually.

Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: The major output of this project is the dissemination of the computable general equilibrium model, EDRAM, to the California Air Resources Board for use in evaluating the effect of proposed regulations on communities in California, particularly industries and low income groups. PARTICIPANTS: The California Air Resources Board was a partner organization in my work. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
The project extended the modelling of the state economy to a multi-year format and to a incorporate a full (rank 3) demand system, estimated from the consumer expenditure survey and Bureau of Labor Statisics price data. Major findings of the project were the economy wide costs of renewable energy standard, low carbon fuel standard and advanced cars.

Publications

• No publications reported this period

Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Consulted with California Air Resources Board on effects of greenhouse gas regulations on the agricultural and rural parts of California. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Generally, the agricultural sector will see increased output and income from a renewable fuel standard.

Publications

• Berck, Peter, Xie, Lunyu. A Policy Model for Climate Change in California. Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research. 2011 1(3):37 47

Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: A new version of the the Environmental Dynamic Revenue Model was delivered to the California Air Resources Board. Presented results of evaluation of an analysis of the macro effects renewable energy standards to the Air Resources Board PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Results have been reported to the California Air Resources Board. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
We evaluated the macro effects of a proposed renewable energy standard for California. The standard includes the proposed use of biogas and biomas for energy. We found that the proposed standard results in a small contraction in state output and personal income.

Publications

• No publications reported this period

Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: We modeled several green house gas policies including low carbon fuel standards and assessed their effect upon employment in agricultural sectors. Generally we found that agricultural employment is increased by such policies. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
These findings were considered by the California Air Resources Board in its evaluation of the proposed regulations on greenhouse gasses.

Publications

• No publications reported this period

Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: We estimated the economic effects of a group of greenhouse-gas-reducing measures that were proposed as a regulatory strategy for California. The measures include command and control measures for transport, structures, and industry as well as a cap and trade program for carbon. The scoping plan would increase output in the agricultural sector because of its reliance on biofuels. It would also increase construction in the rural sector because of the requirement for renewable fuels (primarily, wind) that is located in rural California. PARTICIPANTS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
The results of this research form the basis for the economic conclusions in the Climate Change Scoping Plan adopted by the California Air Resources Board on December 12, 2008.

Publications

• Berck, P. 2008. Macroeconomic Impacts for the State Alternative Fuels Plan. Report to California Energy Commission.