Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/11
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The database and inventory conducted through July 2010 for prairie sites showed that the potential of many unknown prairie remnants or prairie pastures exists on private lands within the nearly 400,000 acre Southwest Grasslands Management Area. Our results also suggested criteria for where remnants may best be found. Based on the success of this inventory, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has contracted for new low level fly-overs of the area to identify additional remnants. Sites already identified remotely by our previous work along with sites identified in the new fly-overs will then be ground-truthed for accuracy by the DNR. Although our role in this project is nearly complete, we continue to consult with the DNR on our work in 2008-2010. PARTICIPANTS: Partner Organizations: Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Southwest Field Office, Cathy Bleser, Regional Ecologist. Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Julie Bleser, Data Manager TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
No new outcomes to report. See previous reports.
Publications
- Read, Carrie and John Harrington. 2008. Examining current patterns and heterogeneity in remnant prairies of southern Wisconsin. In J.T Springer and E.C. Springer, editors, Proc. of the Twentieth North American Prairie Conference. Department of Biology, University of Nebraska at Kearney, Kearney, NE.
|
Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: One category of Prairie Research has been the continued development of a GISdatabase prototype applicable to the state of Wisconsin. The database is used to record locations of remnants and to ask questions on the spatial distribution of these remnants and their content. The GISDatabase for location and biological survey data on tallgrass prairie remnants has been provided to the Natural Heritage Inventory division of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and is used by The Prairie Enthusiasts in conjunction with regional landuse planning and protection efforts. The database has limited public access in order protect some of the threatened resources it describes; a "filtered" database is being developed by The Prairie Enthusiasts for public use. The database structure has continued to be refined based on comments and reviews received from participating agencies and conservation groups. The database was used to develop a predictive model as to possible locations for additional remnants on private lands. Results on variables that may affect the spatial distribution of prairies are explored in several classes in the Department's restoration ecology curriculum. These findings were presented at several conferences in 2008 and will be again in 2010. PARTICIPANTS: Participants are the same as in other years. Two graduate students have received MS degrees working under this project. Carrie Read is now employed by the Kentucky branch of a national landscape architecture firm Carol R Johnson and Associates. Alexandra Wells is a consultant for an environmental and energy consulting firm in Wisconsin. Amy Staffen is now employed by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources as a Natural Areas Management Planner. TARGET AUDIENCES: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Environmental factors associated with the locations of known remnants in the Southwest Grasslands Area of Wisconsin were analyzed to create a predictive model of remnant distribution. Two models were created. The Simple Model contained four significant variables: elevation, slope steepness, distance from paved roads, and soil rockiness. The Aspect Model added two aspect variables and their interactions with elevation. The Aspect Model was best at predicting remnant probability with known data, the Simple Model had higher accuracy in predicting new data. Pattern variables related to prairie remnant location; patch number, average patch size, cover type proportions, observed versus expected distances among remnant neighbors, and the size distribution of remnant patches were quantified and analyzed. Results indicate that the Southwest Grasslands is a shifting mosaic composed primarily of cropland and pasture, with small, fragmented patches of water, developed areas, grassland and remnants. Remnants were more likely to be located next to grasslands, pasture and forest and less likely to be located next to water or developed lands. A GIS depicted model prediction, validation and uncertainty. Binary and continuous maps of remnant vegetation probabilities have potential for use by land managers in locating undiscovered prairie remnants and pointing to potential corridors for conservation.
Publications
- Wells, Alexandra. 2009. A predictive model for tallgrass prairie remnant distribution in the Southwest Grasslands Area of Wisconsin, USA. MSLA Thesis.
- Read, Carrie and John Harrington. 2008. Spatial patterns and the changes in underlying heterogeneity of remnant prairies in southern Wisconsin. Conference Program and Abstracts: The 21st North American Prairie Conference. Winona State University. Winona, Minnesota.
- Wells, Alexandra and John Harrington. 2008. A predictive model for tallgrass prairie remnant distribution in the Southwest Grasslands Area of Wisconsin, USA. Conference Program and Abstracts: The 21st North American Prairie Conference. Winona State University. Winona, Minnesota.
|
Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: In cooperation with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and The Prairie Enthusiasts and with assistance from 2 graduate and 1 undergraduate students, I continued the remote and on-site inventory, database construction, and analysis of the distribution of prairie remnants covering an area of 350,000 acres in rural southwestern Wisconsin. The database is a pilot for a much larger database that contain records on all know prairie and savanna remnants in Wisconsin and include field data on both the biological (flora and fauna) and the physical environment (soils, topography, hydrology) in which they reside as well as past and present preservation, management and research efforts. The consolidation of field data into a single database supports on-going and future research efforts as well as conservation efforts by our partners. The database continues to be shared with the Natural Heritage Inventory of the Wisconsin DNR. The database and supplemental data are being used to develop a predictive model for locating lands that have high potential of containing remnants. From these efforts one master thesis on the spatial patterns and underlying heterogeneity of remnant prairies in southern Wisconsin by Carrie Read was produced. The results of this research effort were presented at the 21st North American Prairie Conference, Winona, MN and 35th Annual Natural Areas Association Conference, Nashville, TN. I also presented a sister study on the development of a predictive model for tallgrass prairie remnant distribution in the southwest grasslands area of Wisconsin at the 21st NAPC. This latter study will result in a thesis from a 2nd graduate student spring 2009. I presented the tallgrass prairie database at The Prairie Enthusiasts' Annual Conference, UW-LaCrosse and followed this with discussion by potential users. PARTICIPANTS: John Harrington, PI; Carrie Read, Masters of Science candidate, Landscape Architecture; Alex Wells, Masters of Science candidate Landscape Architecture. Partners and Contacts: Richard Henderson; Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and The Prairie Enthusiasts, Cathy Bleser, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources; Amy Staffen, The Prairie Enthusiasts. TARGET AUDIENCES: In addition to previous target audiences, the results are being used in two University of Wisconsin Courses, Landscape Architecture 666 Restoration Ecology and Landscape Architecture 866 Tall Grass Prairie Ecology. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.
Impacts
Remnant prairies have become increasingly fragmented and surrounded with neutral to incompatible land uses that affect the latter's long term stability. Most of these remnants, if unmanaged, are declining in size. The 50,000 acre Military Ridge Heritage Area and the 350,000 acre southwest grasslands have been identified by the Wisconsin DNR, The Nature Conservancy and The Prairie Enthusiasts as one of the best opportunities to protect and restore prairie remnants and grassland-dependent flora and fauna. Our study of historic patterns found that between 1937 and 2005 the 5 study areas lost 48 to 87 % of all remaining remnants with an average for all areas of 69%. Mean remnant patch size declined 90% on average, but patch numbers increased 425% as a result of the breaking up of larger patches or remnants. Remnant shapes became less complex and distances between remnants increased. During this time period the proportion of remnants on slopes less than 12% declined and increased on slopes greater than12%. Remnant presence declined further on east-facing slopes and did not change with other aspects. Remnants continued a steady decline on well-drained silt-loam soils of high fertility and more slowly on stony soils. Between 1995 and 2005 9.84 ha or 21% of remaining known remnant area was lost. This compares to habitat loss of 39 ha or 24% of prairie remnant area between 1937 and 1962. These losses are contributed to farmland conversion for the earlier period. More recently we suspect these losses are occurring from under utilized pasture. Without fire management these prairie pastures (pastures that are a mix of cool season range grasses and prairie) are converting to shrubs and trees. The result is a loss of prairie vegetation and a continued decline in habitat for and populations of grassland birds and insects. Fragmented, small patches retain some connectivity but such linkages are declining in locations without human management. As connectivity ceases remnant size shrinks further. In 2007, we observed that north-facing slopes were as likely to have prairies on them as west and south facing slopes, a relationship that was unexpected. Based on work in 2008 we believe that north-facing slopes compare favorably to south and western slopes but only when placed in relation with elevation; northern slopes at high elevations are likely to receive sufficient sun to maintain prairie. We also suspect a relationship with percent slope. Shallower slopes should receive more light and therefore retain prairie, but have yet to demonstrate this. To date, our best performing model for predicting the most likely locations for remnants in southwest Wisconsin has an accuracy of 70%. The predictive variables used by this model were elevation, slope steepness, distance for paved roads and soil rockiness, with elevation being the most significant variable. A second model included aspect but that variable did not significantly increase predictive success. Our sense is that our best chance for locating prairie remnants occurs at higher elevations and on steeper slopes with increased rockiness of soils and distance from paved roads.
Publications
- Read, Carrie. 2008. Spatial Patterns and the Underlying Heterogeneity of Remnant Prairies in Southern Wisconsin. MSLA thesis.
|
Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Activities include development of a geodatabase that houses locational and biological survey data on remnant prairies and savannas within a Wisconsin DNR designated project area of 350,000 acres, projecting potential locations of prairie remnants on private properties from orthopohotos, and based on set of criteria established by the PI, a survey of projected locations to determine criteria accuracy. The analysis includes exploring the rate of change for remnant size and distribution from 1937 to 2005. The results to date have been reported on at the Natural Areas Association and North American Prairie Conferences (NAPC) and scheduled to be presented at the 2008 Prairie Enthusiasts Annual Meeting. Two graduate students were mentored and assisted with this project as part of their graduate studies. Additional undergraduate and graduate students contributed to the project. The project is discussed within courses taught by the PI. The Wisconsin DNR (Natural Heritage Inventory)
has received a copy of the geodatabase and summary of sites mapped, as has The Prairie Enthusiasts (TPE). TPE will disseminate the information to Wisconsin Counties and other government agencies to support conservation efforts during planning activities. The geodatabase, after additional review, will be used to develop a statewide database of prairie remnants assisted by TPE. In the process of visiting potential remnant sites, landowners were introduced to the importance of these lands.
PARTICIPANTS: John Harrington, PI; Partner Organizations: Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (sponsor), Natural Heritage Inventory, supplied data on known remnants. Reviewed database structure. Contacts include Richard Henderson, Cathy Bleser, Julie Bleser, Amy Staffen; The Prairie Enthusiasts, a non-profit land trust dedicated to protecting prairie and savanna remnants in the Upper Midwest, provided data and field survey support. Contacts include Amy Staffen and Richard Henderson; Training and development: undergraduates: Stephanie Koepp. Graduate students: Alexandra Wells, Mark Wegner, Julie Schoengold
TARGET AUDIENCES: Target audience Wisconsin DNR, The Prairie Enthusiasts, rural land owners (Western Dane, Northern Lafayette and Green, Iowa Counties).
Impacts
256 of the 793 remotely identified potential remnant locations have been visited to date. Of these 62% were classified as a prairie remnant. Preliminary findings suggest steeper slopes (>12%), thin rocky soils and well-drained silt loam were important variables to projecting prairie remnant location. Unexpected was the finding that remnant occurrence was significantly greater on north and north west facing slopes in addition to west and southwest facing slopes. South facing slopes and flat lands had a negative correlation with remnant location. Prior to European settlement south and west facing slopes would have contained much more prairie than north facing slopes Efforts in finding remnants have concentrated on south and west facing slopes. Our initial findings suggest that north and north west facing slopes should not be ignored when conducting remnant searches. We suspect the observed pattern is a result of human activities on the landscape; including conversion of
lands with south facing aspects for crops. Although 50% of the landscape cover observed was cropped and 30% forested, it was the remaining 20% containing cool season grasses that had strongest association with remnants. The WiDNR and TPE will continue to review the criteria used to project remnant location with the PI. As the database develops opportunities to explore numerous question on the spatial patterns of these remnants will become available.
Publications
- Read, Carrie and John Harrington. In press. Examining current patterns and heterogeneity in remnant prairies of southern Wisconsin. In Joe Springer, editor, Proc. of the 2006 North American Prairie Conference. Kearney, NE.
|
|