Progress 04/15/06 to 02/14/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: The overall goal of this project was to determine the impacts on U.S. competitiveness of U.S. soybean export markets stemming from biotechnology developments in China. Accordingly, our specific objectives included determination of (1) U.S.-China soybean trade impacts and impacts on U.S. competitiveness due to evolving agrobiotechnology developments in China. (2) adoption of GM soybeans by Chinese producers (via producer surveys in China) (3) the strategic positioning of the Chinese agrifood industry for GM soybeans products (via personal interviews) (4) acceptance of GM soybean products by Chinese consumers (via secondary data). To achieve these objectives, intermediate outputs throughout the term of the project included developing surveys, interviewing both Chinese and U.S. agribusiness representatives in China, obtaining industry feedback as we developed farmer surveys, and incorporating consumer and producer survey results into a China trade model. Final outputs related to this project included completion of two PhD dissertations and one Masters thesis, one book, a special issue of a journal on agbiotechnology in China, five journal articles, over 20 presentations at professional meetings including 12 presentations at international conferences, e.g., the International Soybean Conference held in China, the triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists held in China in 2009, the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) 2007 meeting held in China and the 2006 International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research. In addition to disseminating results through publications and presentations to both academic and industry groups, we also developed at project website: http://www.biosoychina.aaec.vt.edu/ PARTICIPANTS: PARTICIPANTS: In addition to the above co-PDs, James Hansen (USDA-ERS), Funing Zhong (Nanjing Agricultural University), Baohui Song (CSU-Chico), Wei Chen (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics) and Michael R. Reed (Univeristy of Kentucky) also contributed to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
China is the leading importer of soybeans in the world. If China adopts high yield biotech soybean varieties, China's soybean production would increase significantly and this would impact global soybean markets. This research assesses the possible effects of adoption of herbicide-tolerant, biotech soybeans on production and consumption in China and its impact on world soybean trade. We model the impacts of commercializing herbicide-tolerant biotech soybeans in China under two scenarios of adoption rates in response to the level of technology fees charged to the producers: a high and low technology fee. Under the high technology fee, adoption of biotech soybeans is relatively low, with only a gradual increase in production of biotech soybeans; the low technology fee corresponds to higher phased-in adoption rates over time. The production of non-biotech soybeans within China is sufficient to satisfy domestic demand for non-biotech soybeans used for food in both cases. However, under the low technology fee, high adoption rate, Chinese production of non-biotech soybeans may not satisfy domestic demand for both food and oil consumption. A small portion of Chinese urban consumers with a strong preference for non-biotech soybean oil may lead to imports of non-biotech soybeans, even without adoption of biotech soybeans by Chinese producers. This would reverse Chinese historical exports of non-biotech soybeans. However, consumer preference to alternative non-biotech oilseeds for oil consumption is a large factor in determining future imports of non-biotech soybeans. Under the current model structure the international effect and prices is more likely to be minimal and Chinese import demand of soybeans would not be significantly affected in both cases.
Publications
- Kalaitzandonakes, N. 2005. Agricultural Supply Chains in China and Implications for Biotech Crops in Agrobiotechonolgy in China: Impacts on U.S. Competitiveness in the World Soybean Market. Organizers: F. Tuan and W. Lin (USDA-ERS). Symposium selected for presentation at the AAEA annual meeting, Providence, RI. July 2005. Abstract on AAEA webpage: http://www.aaea.org
- Lin, William, Agapi Somwaru, Francis Tuan, Jikun Huang, and Junfei Bai. 2005. "Consumers Willingness to Pay for Biotech Foods in China" selected paper presented at the AAEA annual meeting, Providence, RI. July 2005. Paper on AgEcon Search: http://purl.umn.edu/19569
- Song, Baohui, and Mary A. Marchant. 2005. "China's Biotech Policies and Their Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Exports to China" in China's Agri-Food Value Chain: Opportunities and Challenges, Proceedings of the Assessing China as a Market and Competitor WCC-101 Research Project; Reno, NV. April, 2005.
- Tuan, Francis, James Hansen, Agapi Somwaru, Mary A. Marchant, Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes and Funing Zhong. 2009. Hypothetical Commercialization of Biotech Soybeans in China: Perverse Domestic and International Trade Effects. Selected paper presented at the International Soybean Conference, Beijing, China, August, 2009.
- Song, Baohui. 2008. "Empirical Study of China Soybean Import Market -- Market Power and Competitive Analysis." Publisher: VDM Verlag Dr. Muller, Germany. ISBN: 978-3-8364-3713-4, 140 pages.
- Xu, Susan. 2007. "Willingness Study of Adopting Herbicide-Tolerant Soybeans in Heilongjiang Province." Masters Thesis, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
- Lin, William, Agapi Somwaru, Francis Tuan, Jikun Huang, and Junfei Bai. 2006. "Consumers' Willingness to Pay for Biotech Foods in China: A Contingent Valuation Approach," AgBioForum, 9:3(2006):166-179. On web: http://www.agbioforum.org/v9n3/v9n3a04-lin.htm
- Lin, William, Agapi Somwaru, Francis Tuan, Jikun Huang, Junfei Bai. 2006 "Are Urban Consumers in China Ready to Accept Biotech Foods" Contributed paper presented at the XXVI triennial meeting of the IAAE, Queensland, Australia. Aug. 2006. Paper distributed to IAAE conference delegates on CD-ROM and on Web: http://purl.umn.edu/25389
- William Lin, Yingchun Dai, Funing Zhong, Francis Tuan, and Xi Chen. 2006. How Does Biotech Labeling Affect Consumers Purchasing Behavior A Case Study of Vegetable Oils in Nanjing, China. Presented at the 2006 AAEA annual meeting, Long Beach, CA, 2006. Paper on AgEcon Search: http://purl.umn.edu/21235
- Song, Baohui, Mary A. Marchant and Shuang Xu. 2006. Competitive Analysis of Chinese Soybean Import Suppliers: U.S., Brazil and Argentina selected paper presented at the AAEA annual meeting, Long Beach, CA, 2006. Paper on AgEcon Search: http://purl.umn.edu/21109
- Song, Baohui, Mary A. Marchant and Shuang Xu. Feb. 2006. "Who Dominates Market Power for U.S.: China Soybean Trade" selected paper presented at the SAEA annual meeting, Orlando, FL. Paper on AgEcon Search: http://purl.umn.edu/35407
- Marchant, Mary A., and Baohui Song. 2005. "Assessment of Biotechnology Policies and International Trade in Key Markets for U.S. Agriculture" Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. 37:2(August 2005):379-391.
- Tuan, Francis, James Hansen, Agapi Somwaru, Mary Marchant, Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, and Funing Zhong. 2010. "Hypothetical Commercialization of Biotech Soybeans in China: Impacts on Domestic Markets and International Trade." Journal of Life Science, in press.
- Chen, W., M. Marchant, Andrew Muhammad. 2010. "China Soybean Imports: Price Impacts Using a Production System Approach." Selected Paper presented at the Southern Agricultural Economics Association (SAEA) Annual Meeting, Orlando, FL Feb. 6-9, 2010. Published in AgEcon Search-Research in Agricultural and Applied Economics. http://purl.umn.edu/56528 Abstract: Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 42(Aug. 2010):in press.
- Song, Baohui, Mary A. Marchant, and Michael R. Reed. 2009. "Competitive Analysis and Market Power of China's Soybean Import Market," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review. 12:1(2009). Available on the web: http://purl.umn.edu/53744
- Chen, Wei. 2009. "Three Essays On Price Analysis of Summer Flounder and China's Soybean Imports." July 2009. PhD Dissertation. Virginia Tech. Major Advisors: D. Taylor, M. Marchant, D. Kauffman.
- Hansen, Jim, Francis Tuan, Agapi Somwaru, Ralph Seeley. 2009. "Impact of China Agriculture Policies on Domestic and World Commodity Markets." Contributed paper presented at the XXVII triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE), Beijing, China, Aug. 2009. Paper on Web: http://purl.umn.edu/51704
- Chen, W., M. Marchant, B. Song. 2009. Impacts of China's Food Consumption on U.S. Soybean Exports, Selected Paper presented at the SAEA Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, Jan. 31-Feb. 3, 2009. Published in AgEcon Search--Research in Agricultural and Applied Economics. http://purl.umn.edu/46820 Abstract: Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 41:2(Aug. 2009):543.
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Progress 04/15/08 to 02/14/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Since the last progress report, 4/14/2008, accomplishments include design and development of an official website (http://www.biosoychina.aaec.vt.edu/) for this soybean project, which will soon be made public. Additional accomplishments include research progress by a graduate student (Chen), who uses a partial equilibrium model to analyze effects of China's consumption of soybean products and meat on U.S. soybean exports. Not only does this research analyze soybean trade between these two countries, but it also contributes a new method to study U.S. soybean exports using the perspective of China's domestic food consumption. This research has been accepted for presentation at the 2009 Southern Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting in Atlanta GA. An additional publication has been accepted by the International Food and Agribusiness Management Association (IAMA) Journal. This research will be important for both the U.S. soybean industry and China's soybean product producers. PARTICIPANTS: In addition to the above co-PDs, Jim Hansen (USDA-ERS), Funing Zhong (Nanjing Agricultural University), Baohui Song (CSU-Chico), Wei Chen (Virginia Tech) and Michael R. Reed (Univeristy of Kentucky) also contributed to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Academics and members of the soybean industry. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
To maintain U.S. global competitiveness, it is crucial for U.S. producers, agribusiness and policymakers to understand the evolution of Chinese biotech policies, regulations, and factors (including attitudes of Chinese producers and consumers) that influence the future stance on Chinese policies and regulations regarding biotechnology adopting and commercialization as well as biotech product consumption, including imports.
Publications
- Song, Baohui, Mary A. Marchant, and Michael R. Reed. (2009) Market Power and Competitive Analysis of China's Soybean Import Market, International Food and Agribusiness Management Review. 12:1, in press.
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Progress 04/15/07 to 04/14/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: This USDA-CSREES National Research Initiative (NRI) Competitive Grant is in its third year of a three year term. This project includes three subcontracts, the USDA-Economic Research Service, the University of Missouri and Nanjing University, as our Chinese collaborators. Accomplishments in 2007-2008 include two trips to China. In the first trip in 2007, the team members met with Chinese collaborators,attended two conferences (International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) and WERA-101) and presented four papers (2007b, 2007c, 2007d and 2007e) at these conferences. The paper (2007f) about commercialization of genetically modified (GM) soybeans in China was presented at the 2007 American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting in Portland, OR. In the 2008 China trip, the team members visited agencies, companies and institutes in four Chinese cities, Beijing, Dalian, Shanghai and Nantong, and the last three were port cities. Officials were interviewed on China's supply chain for its soybean industry. In regards to the project objectives, Chinese farmers adoption of GM soybeans, supply chain, consumers acceptance and trade issues, since 2005, team members gave presentations and published papers on Northeast China's farmers willingness to adopt GM soybeans; Chinese consumer preferences to purchase GM soybean oil and the U.S. competitiveness on the international market. The team members collected information about the Chinese supply chain for its soybean industry during the 2008 China trip. PARTICIPANTS: Not relevant to this project. TARGET AUDIENCES: Not relevant to this project. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.
Impacts
To maintain U.S. global competitiveness, it is crucial for U.S. producers, agribusiness and policymakers to understand the evolution of Chinese biotech policies, regulations, and factors (including attitudes of Chinese producers and consumers) that influence the future stance on Chinese policies and regulations regarding biotechnology adopting and commercialization as well as biotech product consumption, including imports.
Publications
- Marchant, Mary A. (2007a) Agrobiotechnology in China: Competitiveness Impacts on U.S. Soybean Export Markets. USDA-CSREES Agribusiness Markets and Trade Project Directors meeting. Materials distributed on a CD. New Orleans, November 4, 2007a.
- Lin , William, Funing Zhong, Shenxian Xu, Francis Tuan, Mary A. Marchant, Nicholas Kailanzandonakes and Baohui Song. (2007e) Adoption of Herbicide-Tolerant, Biotech Soybeans in Heilongjiang, China. Contributed paper presented at the WERA-101 China Research Project meeting, Shanghai, China, July 2007e.
- Hansen, Jim, William Lin, Francis Tuan, Mary Marchant, Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, Funing Zhong, and Baohui Song. (2007f) Commercialization of Genetically Modified Soybeans in China: Perverse Domestic and International Trade Effects. Selected paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) annual meeting, Portland, OR. July 2007f. Paper available on AgEcon Search at URL: http://agecon.lib.umn.edu
- Song, Baohui, Mary A. Marchant, Michael R. Reed, and Shuang Xu. (2007b) Market Power and Competitive Analysis of China Soybean Import Market. Contributed paper presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) meeting, Beijing, China, July 2007b.
- Hansen, Jim, William Lin, Francis Tuan, Mary A. Marchant, Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, Funing Zhong, and Baohui Song. (2007c) Trade Effects of Commercializing Genetically Modified Soybeans in China. Contributed paper presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) meeting, Beijing, China, July 2007c.
- Lin, William, Francis Tuan, Yingchun Dai, Funing Zhong and Xi Chen. (2007d) Does Biotech Labeling Affect Consumers Purchasing Behavior? A Case Study of Vegetable Oils in Nanjing, China. Contributed paper presented at the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium (IATRC) meeting, Beijing, China. July 2007d.
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Progress 04/15/06 to 04/15/07
Outputs
This USDA-CSREES National Research Initiative (NRI) Competitive Grant is in its second year of a three year term. This project includes three subcontracts, the USDA-Economic Research Service, the University of Missouri and Nanjing University, as our Chinese collaborators. Accomplishments during this first 24 months include obtaining IRB approval at three institutions (University of Kentucky, University of Missouri and Virginia Tech) and subcontracts for three institutions identified above, publishing two articles on Chinese agricultural biotechnology policies (Marchant and Song; Song and Marchant), completing one Ph.D. dissertation (Song), and presenting two agrobiotechnology symposia at the 2005 American Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting (Kalaitzandonakes in Tuan and Lin) and at the 2006 triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists (Marchant and Song; Lin and Tuan; and Kalaitzandonakes), respectively, as well as a paper
presented as a poster at the IAAE meetings (Marchant and Song). An additional paper was presented at the 10th International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research (ICABR) 2006 meeting in Ravello, Italy, Additionally, in the spring of 2006 the team traveled to China to meet our Chinese collaborators, as well as tour the primary soybean growing area in China, Heilongjiang province. Accomplishments include development and pre-testing of our Chinese soybean producer survey of Chinese farmers' adoption of GM soybeans. Since our trip, the survey has been conducted by our Chinese collaborators in Heilongjiang province. Working with the PIs, results have been compiled, analyzed and interpreted. Preliminary results from grant activity will be presented at the 2007 American Agricultural Economics Association annual meeting, as well as at the International Agricultural Trade and Research Consortium (IATRC) meetings to be held in Beijing in July 2007.
Impacts
To maintain U.S. global competitiveness, it is crucial for both U.S. producers, agribusinesses and policymakers to understand the evolution of Chinese biotech policies, regulations, and factors (including attitudes of Chinese producers and consumers) that influence the future stance on Chinese policies and regulations regarding biotechnology adoption and commercialization as well as biotech product consumption, including imports.
Publications
- Marchant, Mary A. and Song, Baohui. Aug. 2006. The Development of Agrobiotechnology and Future Biotech Policies in China: An Overview. Invited symposium presentation at the Agrobiotechnology in China: Impacts on U.S. Competitiveness in the World Soybean Market symposium. Symposium presented at the XXVI triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Queensland, Australia. Paper distributed to IAAE conference delegates on CD-ROM.
- William Lin and Francis Tuan. Aug. 2006. Genetically Modified Soybeans in China: Likelihoods of Producer Adoption and Consumer Acceptance. Invited symposium presentation at the Agrobiotechnology in China: Impacts on U.S. Competitiveness in the World Soybean Market symposium. Symposium presented at the XXVI triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Queensland, Australia. Aug. 2006. Paper distributed to IAAE conference delegates on CD-ROM.
- Nicholas Kalaitzandonakes, Aug. 2006. Implications of Commercializing Genetically Modified Soybeans in China for the Supply Chain. Invited symposium presentation at the Agrobiotechnology in China: Impacts on U.S. Competitiveness in the World Soybean Market symposium. Organizers: W. Lin and F. Tuan (USDA-ERS). Symposium presented at the XXVI triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Queensland, Australia. Aug. 2006. Paper distributed to IAAE conference delegates on CD-ROM.
- Marchant, Mary A. and Song, Baohui. China Biotech Policies and Their Impacts on U.S. Agricultural Exports to China. Paper presented as a poster at the XXVI triennial meeting of the International Association of Agricultural Economists, Queensland, Australia. Aug. 2006. Paper distributed to IAAE conference delegates on CD-ROM.
- William Lin, Yingchun Dai, Funing Zhong, Francis Tuan, and Xi Chen. How Does Biotech Labeling Affect Consumers Purchasing Behavior? A Case Study of Vegetable Oils in Nanjing, China. Presented at the 10th International Consortium on Agricultural Biotechnology Research (ICABR) in Ravello, Italy, June 29-July 2, 2006.
- Song, Baohui., Market Power and Competitive Analysis of China Soybean Import Market. PhD Dissertation. University of Kentucky. May 2006. Advisor: Mary A. Marchant.
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