Source: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS submitted to NRP
MEASURING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY, AND UNDERSTANDING THEIR POLITICAL CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES
Sponsoring Institution
National Institute of Food and Agriculture
Project Status
COMPLETE
Funding Source
HATCH
Reporting Frequency
Annual
Accession No.
0208939
Grant No.
(N/A)
Cumulative Award Amt.
(N/A)
Proposal No.
(N/A)
Multistate No.
(N/A)
Project Start Date
Oct 1, 2006
Project End Date
Sep 30, 2012
Grant Year
(N/A)
Program Code
[(N/A)]- (N/A)
Recipient Organization
UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
2001 S. Lincoln Ave.
URBANA,IL 61801
Performing Department
AGRICULTURAL AND CONSUMER ECONOMICS
Non Technical Summary
The impact of technical changes and public programs on people's well-being is conditioned by economic policy and market institutions. Whether a new technology yields benefits to a specific group, defined by features such as location, income level, income source, or consumption pattern may depend, for example, on regulations concerning the technology. This project analyzes how alternative policies influence the impacts of new technologies and government programs on the welfare of different groups.
Animal Health Component
50%
Research Effort Categories
Basic
50%
Applied
50%
Developmental
(N/A)
Classification

Knowledge Area (KA)Subject of Investigation (SOI)Field of Science (FOS)Percent
6056110301010%
6066120301015%
6106110301040%
6116120301035%
Knowledge Area
605 - Natural Resource and Environmental Economics; 611 - Foreign Policy and Programs; 610 - Domestic Policy Analysis; 606 - International Trade and Development;

Subject Of Investigation
6110 - Economy of the United States and sectors thereof; 6120 - International economy and sectors thereof;

Field Of Science
3010 - Economics;
Goals / Objectives
Our project has three principal but related goals. The first is the measurement of the effects of changes in agricultural policy and technology. The second is making reasonable and politically sustainable policy recommendations to governmental decision makers. The third is to better understand the underlying political causes and situations of the policies and technologies that we observe. In particular, we aim to study the efficiency of government policy, and how the efficiency of a policy affects its political feasibility.
Project Methods
We will employ both simulation and estimation techniques to meet specific objectives. Data will come from published sources, satellite images, and surveys of producers, marketing agents and consumers. Simulation modeling will involve of the development and application of applied general and partial equilibrium models including multi-level programming models and global economy models. Econometric estimation techniques will place an emphasis on spacial relationships.

Progress 10/01/06 to 09/30/12

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Robert Thompson played an important role in the worldwide discussion of agricultural and trade policy. His output included scores of presentations, in Ilinois other states (including D.C.), and overseas. He received frequent media queries for background on the farm bill, the WTO trade negotiations, the 'world food crisis', the food vs. fuel debate, and the global financial crisis. His memberships on the USTR-USDA Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee on Trade and the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council have also provided excellent conduits to get his analysis of the policy alternatives directly into the deliberations. Thompson's applied research provided the raw material for his extension public policy education presentations and popular publications on the 2008 and 2012 farm bill debates and the WTO trade negotiations. Bullock spoke about the European Union Common Agricultural Policy to a conference of Illinois high school teachers. He also spoke about precision agriculture technology and information to an audience of hundreds of Pioneer employees and affiliates. He spoke at the Center for Advanced Study in International Competitiveness about biotechnology and economic competitiveness in the U.S. and European Union. He lectured on biofuels policy at the University of Illinois Environmental Sustainability Summit, and also before a visiting group of about fifty employees from Brazil-Syngenta, and on a separate occasion before a group of Brazilian farmers' union members. Bullock participated in numerous interviews by the popular press, particularly in regard to his work on bio-energy and ethanol policy. For example, he was interviewed by reporters from the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, and the Chicago Tribune. Winter-Nelson's research was disseminated to academic audiences through scholarly publications and presentations. He disseminated his research to a more general audience by interviews with the popular media, including an interview played nation-wide on National Public Radio. In addition, as the ACE Department's Director of Graduate Studies, he facilitated the generation of numerous new Masters- and PhD-level agricultural, environmental, and consumer economists. Hayri Onal developed an economic simulation model for U.S. agriculture and a transportation/facility location model that deals with the optimum infrastructure and transportation network for bioenergy inputs and outputs. The model is actually a general purpose model that can be used for a variety of policy issues surrounding U.S. agriculture. In addition, Onal developed a spatial optimization model which generates compact legislative and congressional district maps. He was invited by colleagues at IGPA (the Institute of Government and Public Affairs) to present a seminar on this work. Finally, in research supported by the Soybean Disease and Biotechnology Center, Onal has developed a computer model for investigating the impacts of soybean rust on U.S. agriculture. PARTICIPANTS: Professor Hayri Onal's principal areas of research are operations research methods, particularly mathematical programming, with special emphasis on agricultural and resource economics applications and dynamic simulation modeling. Professor Alex Winter-Nelson's research is motivated by an interest in reducing poverty in developing countries. More specific research issues that Dr. Bullock address include food and cash crop marketing in Africa, the relationship between agricultural technology and nutrition, and the impacts of animal disease on trade and development. Associate Professor Joyce E. Allen-Smith's research focuses on the economics of food and agricultural policy, nutrition policy, and rural poverty. Associate Professor Charles H. Nelson's research involves the econometric analysis of agricultural production, analysis of production under risk and the influence of non-normal distributions, analysis of the social efficiency of agricultural investment and rural credit markets, and strategic marketing of food products. Professor David S. Bullock's principal areas of research are in the political economy of agricultural policy, applied welfare economics, and the economics of technological change. Professor Emeritus Robert Thompson's research focused on the economics and politics of agricultural trade and agricultural trade agreements. The participants above collaborated with numerous researchers from all over the globe, from such institutions as France's Institut National du Recherche Agronomique, the International Food Policy Research Institute, the World Bank, The Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute, the Technical University of Munich, Egerton University (Kenya), Michigan State University, Purdue University, and the University of Central Florida. A significant amount of training and professional development was accomplished. In particular, the cited works that included as authors Ruffo, Bollero, Chen, Wang, Takeshima, Liverpool, Lim, Crago, Mino, and Dissanayake all involved training of graduate students, all of whom completed their PhD and work at universities and institutes around the globe. TARGET AUDIENCES: Three main groups have made up the project's target audience. The first group is made up of policy makers. All of the researchers conducted policy-related work. Some of that work is quite abstract, and some of it is very applied. The audience for the abstract research is other academics. By affecting the formal thinking and theory about policy impacts, policy researchers can help frame over the long-run the intellectual arguments that help support good policies and decry bad policies. The applied research is aimed at non-academics, from actual politicians wanting to know the effects of proposed policies, to bureaucrats responsible for implementing policies, to the general public, which has interests in understanding policies in order to persuade government. Principally, we reached our academic audience through journal publications and academic conferences, and we reached the non-academic audience by giving interviews through the popular media, speaking to public groups, and having discussions with politicians and those who advise them. The second group of our target audience is made up of agricultural producers. We learned a good deal about several new agricultural technologies during the life of this project. Through the popular agricultural media, we expressed informed opinions about the likely effects of new technologies in agricultural production. We also interacted a good deal with farmers as we participated in the country's general agricultural policy debate. The third group of our target audience are people who care about the environment and environmental policy. Much of our research focused on how environmental impacts of changes in policy and technology can be measured. Those types of estimates are necessary to ultimately affect policy decisions. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Bullock contributed to knowledge of how identity preservation and segregation of genetically modified commodities affects prices in world grain markets. Additionally, Bullock designed an abstract mathematical model of how genetically modified crops have bifurcated world grain markets, creating two physically separate marketing chains, one for genetically modified grains and the other for conventional grains. Bullock lead another theoretical study of how one might measure the effects of changes in a 'non-market' good on those who consume it. He showed that several previous studies had underestimated the ability of economists to measure welfare impacts of changes in non-market goods using market data. Nelson's research provided important insights into how food price increases impact household welfare in developing countries. His findings hve impacted how international NGOs set their policies for conducting food aid. Nelson also examined the relationship between family stress during adolescence and subsequent health outcomes of young adults, such as obesity. These types of research findings ultimately impact government's struggle to understand the causes of the obesity epidemic in order to tailor appropriate policy responses. Hayri Onal's research impacts the ability of decision makers to understand an quantify the effects of energy infrastructure, land use, soybean disease, and legislative boundary-making on society. Onal's modeling skills have allowed him to develop a model of world biofuels markets which allows applied researchers to examine questions about the effects of biofuels policy on energy prices, crop prices, and the environment. Thompson's research impacted U.S. farm policy, the WTO agricultural trade negotiations, globalization, and exchange rates. He was invited to speak and attend negotiations all over the world, where his intimated knowledge of the issues at hand in agricultural trade negotiations helped him help negotiators by explaining the likely impacts of their proposals and negotiation stances. This applied research provided the raw material for Thompson's Extension public policy education presentations and popular publications on the 2008 and 2012 Farm Bill discussions, and the WTO trade negotiations. Winter-Nelson's research has focused on the potential for reducing transaction costs and marketing losses in Africa through new market institutions, including commodities exchanges. Taken together, this work has impacted the view of the critical preconditions that can influence whether a specific market intervention or innovation can have an impact on reducing poverty and hunger. Professor Winter-Nelson's research on agricultural policies and technologies in developing countries has shown that U.S. access to international markets can be a key for poverty alleviation in developing countries. His work on animal disease control has supported better analysis of the international spread of diseases that are important to both human health and economic performance. This research contributes to improve international targeting and coordination of disease control interventions by national governments and international organizations.

Publications

  • Arifullah, S. and Onal, H. 2010. Effects of technological progress on consumers and producers welfare. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 49 243:255.
  • Bassett, T. and A. Winter-Nelson, The Atlas of World Hunger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010.
  • Bertini, C., Schumacher, G. and Thompson, R., eds. 2006. Modernizing Americas food and farm policy: Vision for a new direction. Chicago: Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
  • Bullock, David S., and Nicholas Minot. On Measuring the Value of a Nonmarket Good Using Market Data. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 88(November 2006): 961-973.
  • Bullock, David S., and James Lowenberg-DeBoer. Using Spatial Analysis to Study the Values of Variable Rate Technology and Information. Journal of Agricultural Economics 53(2007): 517-535.
  • Bullock, David S., and E. Elisabet Rutstrom. Policy Making and Rent-Dissipation: An Experimental Test. Experimental Economics, 10(March 2007): 21-36.
  • Bullock, David S., Newell Kitchen, and Donald G. Bullock. Multi-Disciplinary Teams: A Necessity for Research in Precision Agriculture Systems. Precision Agriculture 47(Sept.-Oct. 2007): 1765-1769.
  • Bullock, David S., Matias L. Ruffo, Donald G. Bullock, and German A. Bollero. The Value of Precision Technology: An Information-Theoretic Approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(February 2009): 209-223.
  • Chen, X., H. Huang, M. Khanna, and H. Onal. Meeting the Mandate for Biofuels: Implication s of Land Use, Food and Fuel Prices, in The Impact of Recent US Policy Changes on Agricultural Markets. Eds. Joshua S. G. Zivin and Jeffrey M. Perloff, published by NBER, University of Chicago Press, 2012.
  • Cheni, X. and Hayri Onal. 2012. Modeling agricultural supply response using mathematical programming and crop mixes. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 94:674-686.
  • De Pinto, A. and Nelson, G.C. 2008. Land use change with spatially explicit data: a dynamic approach. Env. and Res. Econ. (Forthcoming).
  • De Pinto, A. and Nelson, G.C. 2007. Modeling deforestation and land-use change: Sparse data environments. J. Agr. Econ. 58:502-516.
  • Desquilbet, Marion, and David S. Bullock. Who Pays the Cost of GMO Segregation and Identity Preservation American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91(August 2009): 656-672.
  • Dissanayake, S. and Onal, Hayri. 2011. Amenity drive n price effects and conservation reserve site selection: A dynamic linear integer programming approach. Ecol. Economics.
  • Dissanayake, S., H. Onal. J. D. Westervelt, and Harold E. Balbach. 2012. Incorporating species relocation in reserve design models: An example from Ft. Benning, GA. Ecological Modelling, 224: 65-75.
  • Dissanayake, S., H. Onal. J. D. Westervelt, and Harold E. Balbach. 2013. Optimal selection of clustered conservation lands using integer programming: The case of Fort Stewart in Georgia, USA (Edward Elgar, ed. , book chapter, forthcoming).
  • Desquilbet, Marion, and David S. Bullock On the Proportionality of EU Spatial Ex Ante Coexistence Regulations: A Comment. Food Policy, 35 (February 2010): 87-90.
  • Gardner, J. and Nelson G. 2007. Herbicides, glyphosate-resistance and acute mammalian toxicity: Simulating an environmental effect of glyphosate-resistant weeds. U.S. Pest Mgt. Rev.
  • Green, K., Plasker, J., Nelson, G. and Lauer, D. 2007. Report to the future land imaging working group of the American Society for Photogrammetry. Eng. and Remote Sensing 73:5-9.
  • Huang, H., M. Khanna, H. Onal, and X. Chen. 2012. Stacking low carbon policies on the Renewable Fuels Standard: Economic and greenhouse gas implications. Energy Policy doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.002.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article /pii/S0301421512005046
  • Josling, T., Sumner, D.A., Thompson, R.L., Chambliss, M. and Laney, K. 2007. The 2007 Farm Bill: Implications for developing countries. Washington DC: International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council, IPC Issue Brief No. 25.
  • Khanna, M., Chen, X., Huang, H. and Onal, H. 2011. Supply of Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks and Regional Production Patterns. American J. of Agricultural Economics.
  • Khanna, M., Onal, H., Dhungana, B. and Wander, M. 2011. Economics of bioenergy crops for electricity generation: Implications for land use and greenhouse gases. Biomass and Bioenergy.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2006. Globalization: Benefits and costs. Ill. Agr. Policy Briefs, no. APB 06-04.
  • Rich, Karl and Alex Winter-Nelson, "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 89 (2007):682-697.
  • Ruffo, Matias L., German A. Bollero, David S. Bullock and Donald G. Bullock. Site-specific Production Functions for Variable Rate Corn Nitrogen Fertilization. Precision Agriculture 7(2006): 327-342.
  • Takeshima, Hiroyuki and Alex Winter-Nelson, "Sales Location of Semi-Subsistence Cassava Farmers in Benin." Agricultural Economics, (2012) in press.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2006. The 2007 Farm Bill: Prospects for change. Farm Income 2007 Proceedings, Farmdoc, Dept. of Agr. and Cons. Econ., University of Illinois, December 2006.
  • Stevens, Robyn, and Alex Winter-Nelson, "Consumer Acceptance of Biofortified Maize in Mozambique." Food Policy, (2008):341-351.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2006. Whither direct payments Ill. Agri-News 30:B-6.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. Current state of the Farm Bill debate. 2007 Illinois Farmland Values and Lease Trends. Journal of the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers: 59-61.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. Globalization and the benefits of trade. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Chicago Fed Letter, Essays on Issues number 236. (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflmarch2007 236.pd f).
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. Globalization and rural America. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Chicago Fed Letter, Essays on Issues number 239. (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflmarch2007 239.pdf)
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. The next Farm Bill. Huff, K.M., et al, eds. Agrifood Regulatory and Policy Integration Under Stress. Altona, Manitoba, Canada: Friesens, pp. 157-182.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. What's ahead with the 2007 Farm Bill 2007. The Chicago Farmers magazine, p. 6.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. The 2007 Farm Bill and the WTO trade negotiations. Ill. Agri-News 30: C-8.
  • Thompson, R.L. Global Warming, Biofuels, and Agriculture: Is Encouraging Corn-Based Ethanol Production in the United States a Bad Public Good, Research Symposium on Bad Public Goods, Searle Center in Law, Regulation and Economic Growth, Northwestern University School of Law, Sept. 15-16, 2008.
  • Thompson, R.L. A Long-Term Perspective on Grain Prices, Illinois Agri-News, vol. 31, no. 29, September 26, 2008, p. D2.
  • Thompson, R.L. Agricultural Crop and Price Insurance, Conference on Private Markets and Public Insurance Programs, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC, Jan. 14, 2009.
  • Wang, Y. and H. Onal. 2012. Designing connected nature reserve networks using a graph theory approach, Acta Ecologica Sinica, 31: 235-240.
  • Winter-Nelson, Alex "Roles for State Government in International Trade." Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 37(2007): 60-62.
  • Winter-Nelson, Alex and Karl Rich, "Mad Cows and Sick Birds: What International Response to Animal Disease in Developing Countries" Development Policy Review, 28 (2008):211-226.
  • Winter-Nelson, Alex, and Emmanuel Aggrey-Fynn, "Identifying Opportunities in Ghana's Agriculture: Results from a Policy Analysis Matrix." Ghana Strategy Support program (GSSP) Background Paper No. 12, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), September 2008.
  • Winter-Nelson, Alex, "International Food Safety Regulations in the United States and the European Union: Balancing Consumer Confidence and Trade." American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91 (2009): 1491-1492.
  • Lim, Sung Soo, Alex Winter-Nelson and Mary Arends-Kuenning, "Household Bargaining Power and Agricultural Supply Response: Evidence from Ethiopian Coffee Growers." World Development, 35 (2007):1204-1220.
  • Khanna, M., Chen, X., Huang, H. and Onal, H. 2011. Land used and greenhouse gas mitigation effects of biofuel policies. University of Illinois Law Review.
  • Khanna, M., H. Onal, C.L. Crago, and K. Mino. 2012. Can India meet biofuel policy targets Implications for food and fuel prices. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. doi: 10.1093/ajae/aas040.
  • Lantican, S.G.M. and Nelson, G.C. 2006. Overcoming SPS barriers to trade: Philippine mangoes and EBT technology. Cabanilla, L.S., Andrada, M.G. and Inciong, L O. Makati City, Philippines: Fulbright Philippine Agricultural Alumni Association.
  • Liverpool, Saweda and Alex Winter-Nelson, "Social Learning and Farm Technologies in Ethiopia." Journal of Development Studies, (2012) in press.
  • Liverpool, Saweda and Alex Winter-Nelson, "Asset versus Consumption Poverty and Poverty Dynamics in Rural Ethiopia." Agricultural Economics, 42 (2011):221-233.
  • Liverpool, Saweda and Alex Winter-Nelson, Poverty Status and the Impact of Formal Credit on Technology Use and Wellbeing among Ethiopian Smallholders." World Development, 38 (2010):541-554.
  • Mittenzwei, Klaus, David S. Bullock, Klaus Salhofer, and Jukka Kola. Toward a Theory of Policy Timing. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 56 (October 2012): 583-596.
  • Nelson, G.C. and Robertson, R.D. 2007. Comparing the GLC2000 and GeoCover LC land cover datasets for use in economic modelling of land use. Int. J. Remote Sensing. 28:1-20.
  • Rashid, Shahidur, Alex Winter-Nelson, and Philip Garcia "Purpose and Potential for Commodity Exchanges in African Economies." International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Discussion Paper 01035, December 2010.
  • Wood, B.D.K., Nelson, C.H. and Nogueira, L. 2012. Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican household s. Food Policy 37, 77-85.
  • Winter-Nelson, Alex and Gem Argwings-Kodhek, "Kenya." In K. Anderson and W. Masters (eds.) Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Africa. The World Bank, 2009.


Progress 01/01/11 to 12/31/11

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Bullock, David S. and Flodeliza H. Bordey. Ethanol Policy Efficiency: A Bigger Picture through Feasible Welfare Manifolds. NC-1034 Meetings Impact Analyses and Decision Strategies for Agricultural Research, in conjunction with the 4th Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference, Berkeley, California, March 24-26, 2011. Bullock, David S. A New Measure of the Producer Welfare Effects of Technology Change. NC-1034 Meetings Impact Analyses and Decision Strategies for Agricultural Research, in conjunction with the 4th Annual Berkeley Bioeconomy Conference, Berkeley, California, March 24-26, 2011. Bullock, David S. A New Measure of the Producer Welfare Effects of Technology Change. Selected Paper, AAEA Meetings, July 26, 2011. Mittenzwei, Klaus, David S. Bullock, Klaus Salhofer, and Jukka Kola. Towards a Theory of Policy Timing. XIIIth European Agricultural Economics Association Meetings, Zurich, Switzerland, Aug. 30 - Sept. 2, 2011. Presented by Salhofer. Bullock, David S. and Anabelle Couleau. The U.S. Ethanol and Commodity Policy Labyrinth: Welfare Effects of Policies that Combine Multiple Instruments. Presentation before the faculty at the Agro-Campus Ouest Department of Agricultural Economics and Management. Rennes, France, Oct. 17, 2011. Bullock, David S. EU and U.S. Agricultural Policy and Political Economy. University of Illinois European Union Center Brownbag Seminar. Urbana, Illlinois, Nov. 11, 2011. Bullock, David S. Simulating the Effects of Supply and Demand Elasticities on Political-Economic Equilibrium. Selected paper, International Agricultutral Trade Research Consortium Annual Meetings, St. Pete Beach, Florida, Dec. 11-13, 2011. H.M. Nunez, H. Onal, M. Khanna, X. Chen, and H. Huang. A Prospective Analysis of Brazil and the U.S. Biofuel Policies: Impact on Land Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Social Welfare Using a Spatial Multi-Market Equilibrium Model. Selected paper presented at the 2011 Annual Meeting of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. Pittsburg, PA, July 24-26, 2011. H. Onal and X. Chen. An Extension of Dantzig-Wolfe Decomposition to Nonlinear Economic Equilibrium Problems: Computational Experience with a Large-Scale Model for the U.S. Biofuels Industry. Paper presented at the IFORS 2011 Conference (International Federation of Operations Research Societies), Melbourne, Australia, July 10-15, 2011. K. Patrick, H. Onal and S. Dissanayake. Designing Conservation Reserve Areas with Efficiency, Contiguity and Compactness Considerations, selected paper for presentation at the 2011 AERE Conference, June 2011, Seattle, WA. H. Onal. The New World of Bioenergy: An Economic Analysis of U.S. Biofuels Policies. Invited paper presented at the 14th Symposium for Systems Analysis in Forest Resources, Maitencillo, Chile, March 8 - 11, 2011. PARTICIPANTS: David S. Bullock is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois. He specializes in policy and political economy analysis and applied welfare analysis. Bullock's collaborators: Klaus Mittenzwei, Norwegian Agricultural Policy Research Institute (NILF). Klaus Salhofer, Professor, Munich Technical University, Germany. Marion Desquilbet. Senior Research Analyst, French Institute for Agronomic Research (INRA). Flordeliza H. Bordey. Research Specialist, Philippines Rice Research Institute. Anabelle Couleau. Master's Candidate. Agro-Campus Ouest, Rennes, France. William Bowser. Phd Candidate, University of Illinois Dept of ACE. Benjamin Wood. PhD Candiate, University of Illinois Dept. of ACE. Eeshani Kandpal. Research Associate, World Bank. Kyeong-soo Jeong. Professor, Konkuk Univesity Dept. of Economics, Seoul, Korea. Alex Winter-Nelson is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois. He specializes in world trade and development. Winter-Nelson's collaborators: Saweda Liverpool is an Assistant Professor in the Dept. of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University. Karl Rich is a Research Professor at the Norwegian Institute of Economics Affairs. Hayri Onal is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois. He specializes in operations research, and of late has applied that knowledge to research in the economics of biofuels and biofuels policy. Onal's collaborators: Madhu Khanna is a Professor in the Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois. Sahan Dissanayake is a a PhD Candidate in the University of Illinois Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. Harold Balbach is a Senior Research Analyst with the Army Corps of Engineers. Michelle Wander is a Professor in the University of Illinois Dept. of Natural Resource Sciences. Charles H. Nelson is an Associate Professor in the Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois. A research theme of the past year has focused on household demand. One dimension has involved econometric estimation of Exact Affine Stone Index functional forms which allow the wide range of Engel curve behavior observed in modern micro-econometric data. Another dimension has involved the welfare effects of recent food price spikes on households in middle income and developing countries. TARGET AUDIENCES: The target audiences for our teaching on policy, political economy and technological change are our students. We serve hundreds of undergraduate students through our courses in agricultural and food policy, and we serve scores of M.A. and PhD students in our classes on agricultural policy and political economy, applied welfare economics, production economics, operations research, the economics of risk and uncertainty, game theory, and international development economics. Over the years, we have seen our undergraduate students enter positions of significant influence in Illinois political and policy-making institutions. We have seen our graduate students rise to scholarly prominence and policy-making prominence throughout the world. Target audiences for our research on policy, political economy and technological change are U.S. consumers, U.S. agricultural and resource policy makers, farmers, and citizens wishing to understand more about environmental issues, especially as they relate to the bioenergy industry. Our efforts should be clear from our publications, presentations, and teaching record. We have travelled all around the world presenting our research. We collaborated with co-authors on several continents. We made great efforts, and received excellent reviews for our teaching, both at the undergraduate and graduate levels. We mentored many graduate students. We conducted multi-disciplinary research. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
Bullock's research impacted the nation's understanding of the effects of new technology on agricultural production. He is currently working with agronomists to analyze data from agronomic experiments that will produce the kinds of information needed to make precision agricultural technology profitable for more farmers. Bullock has also contributed to knowledge of how identity preservation and segregation of genetically modified commodities will affect prices throughout the world's grain markets and food chain. He continues to extend the theory of applied welfare economics, which guides economists in how to measure the economic effects of changes in agricultural policy and technology. Winter-Nelson's research has focused on the potential for reducing transaction costs and marketing losses in Africa through new market institutions, including commodities exchanges. Taken together this work has impacted the view of the critical preconditions that can influence whether a specific market intervention or innovation can have an impact on reducing poverty and hunger. Beyond academic publications, the results of this work have been disseminated through radio interviews and various policy briefs, discussion papers, and a recently published book written for a general audience. Onal's research impacts the ability of decision makers to understand and quantify the effects of energy infrastructure, land use, soybean disease, and legislative boundary-making on society. While these topics are diverse, they can all be analyzed using Onal's skills in the science of computer-intensive constrained optimization. As a result, more than ever it is possible for decision makers to identify quantitatively how their decisions will affect society. Nelson's research emphases on how food price increases impact household welfare in developing countries. A recent paper showed that in middle income countries it is important to understand substitution in consumption to measure income losses from food price increases. Many standard World Bank studies calculated income losses by assuming unchanged demand. Nelson showed these income losses can be significantly biased when households can substitute in food consumption, and thus impacted current views on how best to measure changes in income. In other research Nelson has shown that households in poor countries replace their subsistence crop with a cash crop when they must buy food. When there is a price shock their ability to feed their family is compromised. A final research emphasis examines the relationship between family stress during adolescence and subsequent young adult health outcomes such as obesity. The idea being that adolescent health endowments are dependent on parental investments.

Publications

  • Desquilbet, M. and Bullock, D.S. 2010. On the proportionality of EU spatial ex ante coexistence regulations: A comment. Food Policy, 35, 87-90.
  • Dissanayake, S. and Onal, H. 2011. Amenity driven price effects and conservation reserve site selection: A dynamic linear integer programming approach. Ecological Economics.
  • Dissanayake, S., Onal, H., Westervelt, J.D. and Balbach, H.E. 2011. Incorporating species modelling (Forthcoming).
  • Dissanayake, S., Onal, H. and Westervelt, J. 2011. Optimum selection of conservation reserves extensions to multiple land use. Military Operations Research, 16: 65-76.
  • Wood, B.D.K., Nelson, C.H. and Nogueira, L. 2012. Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households. Food Policy 37, 77-85.
  • Khanna, M., Chen, X., Huang, H. and Onal, H. 2011. Land use and greenhouse gas mitigation effects of biofuel policies. University of Illinois Law Review, 2:549-588.


Progress 01/01/10 to 12/31/10

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Conference Presentations: Bowser, W., M. Khanna, and H. Onal. "Spatial Equilibrium in the Biofuel Economy: A Multi-market Analysis of Trade Distortions in the U.S. and Brazilian Ethanol Sector" selected paper presented at the AAEA 2010 Annual Conference, Denver, CO. Bullock, D.S., Bordey, F.H., W. Bowser, E. Kandpal, and B. Wood. "A Ciritical Reassessment of Becker's Political Economy Model and Its Subsequent Literature" International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium Meetings, Berekely, CA, December 14, 2010. Bullock, D.S., D.G. Bullock, K. Armstrong, and R. Dunker. "An Economic Analysis of a Strip-crop Corn-Soybean Management System Experiment" NC-1034 Meetings, Washington, DC, March 18, 2010. Bullock, D.S., D.G. Bullock, K. Armstrong, and R. Dunker. "An Economic Analysis of a Strip-crop Corn-Soybean Management System Experiment" Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF), June 14, 2010. Bullock, D.S. "EU and U.S. Agricultural Policy and Agricultural Political Economy" University of Illinois European Union Center Seminar, September 28, 2010. Chen, X., H. Huang, M. Khanna, and H. Onal. "Meeting the Mandate for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use and Food and Fuel Prices" selected paper presented at the AAEA 2010 Annual Conference, Denver, CO. Dissanayake, S. and H. Onal. "Does Ignoring Dynamic Price Effects in Reserve Design Models Lead to Suboptimal Reserves A Two-Period Linear Integer Site Selection Model" selected paper presented at the AAEA 2010 Annual Conference, Denver, CO. Dissanayake, S. and H. Onal. "Endogenous Land Price Effects And Conservation Reserve Site Selection: A Dynamic Linear Integer Programming Approach" selected paper for presentation at the 4th World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists, Montreal, Canada. Mittenzwei, K., Bullock, D.S., and Salhofer, K. "Towards a Theory of Policy Timing" 14th Annual Conference of The International Society for New Institutional Economics, University of Stirling, UK, June 17-19, 2010. Mittenzwei, K., Bullock, D.S., Salhofer, K. and Kola, J. "The Economics of Delaying Policy Change: An Application to the 1992 CAP Reform" Forskermotet for okonomer, Kristiansand, Norway, June 5, 2010. Onal, H., M. Khanna, X. Chen, and H. Huang. "Renewable Fuel Standards in U.S.: The Roles of Technology and Policy" paper presented at the INFORMS 2010 Annual Conference, Austin, TX. Winter-Nelson, A. "Prospects and Potential for Agricultural Commodity Exchanges in Africa" ACTESA/COMESA (Alliance for Commodity Trade in Eastern and Southern Africa/Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) Lilongwe, Malawi, September 6, 2010. PARTICIPANTS: Collaborators: Dissanayake: U of I PhD student Desquilbet: Researcher, INRA, France Salhofer: Professor, Technical University Munich, Germany Mittenzwei: Researcher, Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute Khanna: Professor,, U. of Illinois Dept of ACE Liverpool: Reearcher, IFPRI Bassett: Professor, U. of Illinois Dept. of Geography D.G. Bullock: Professor, U of Illinois Dept. of Crop Sciences Armstrong: PhD student, U of Illinois Dept. of Crop Sciences Dunker: U of Illinois Dept. of Crop Sciences Kandpal: U of I PhD student Wood: U of I PhD student Bowser: PhD student Bordey: Philippine Rice Research Institute Huang: U of I PhD student Patrick: U of I PhD student TARGET AUDIENCES: All of the above research issues are timely and relevant. Renewable energy, particularly biofuels, has been a particularly important policy issue in recent years and it has serious implications for U.S. agriculture. At the Energy Bioscience Institute of UIUC, we have developed a large scale sector model for U.S. agriculture that simulates the production of biofuels from alternative feedstocks and their impacts on land use changes, agricultural markets, and social welfare. This research has been received well among target audiences (both the farming community, the agribusiness community, and the general public), and results of our modeling study have been presented in various forms, including journal articles, conference papers and congressional testimonies. Our research on optimum design of reserve networks focused mostly on spatial characteristics of the reserve, such as compactness, connectivity, fragmentation, etc. These are challenging problems that require sophisticated mathematical models. Interestingl,y last remnants of critical habitat areas for many endangered/threatened species lie within the boundaries of military installations in the U.S. (restricting or eliminating agricultural and urban development on military lands are the driving reason for that). Therefore, U.S. DOA spends a substantial amount of financial resources to balance the uses of military lands for military uses and conservation purposes. In the past two years we have led a research team focusing on this issue applying our previous research methods to the problem. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Nothing significant to report during this reporting period.

Impacts
Bullock's research impacted the nation's understanding of the effects of new technology on agricultural production. He is currently working with agronomists to analyze data from agronomic experiments that will produce the kinds of information needed to make precision agricultural technology profitable for more farmers. Bullock has also contributed to knowledge of how identity preservation and segregation of genetically modified commodities will affect prices throughout the world's grain markets and food chain. He continues to extend the theory of applied welfare economics, which guides economists in how to measure the economic effects of changes in agricultural policy and technology. Winter-Nelson's research has focused on the potential for reducing transaction costs and marketing losses in Africa through new market institutions, including commodities exchanges. Taken together this work has impacted the view of the critical preconditions that can influence whether a specific market intervention or innovation can have an impact on reducing poverty and hunger. Beyond academic publications, the results of this work have been disseminated through radio interviews and various policy briefs, discussion papers, and a recently published book written for a general audience. Onal's research impacts the ability of decision makers to understand an quantify the effects of energy infrastructure, land use, soybean disease, and legislative boundary-making on society. While these topics are diverse, they can all be analyzed using Onal's skills in the science of computer-intensive constrained optimization. As a result, more than ever it is possible for decision makers to identify quantitatively how their decisions will affect society. Nelson's research emphases the impact of food price increases on household welfare in developing countries. A recent paper showed that in middle income countries it is important to understand substitution in consumption to measure income losses from food price increases. Many standard World Bank studies calculated income losses by assuming unchanged demand. Nelson showed these income losses can be significantly biased when households can substitute in food consumption, and thus impacted current views on how best to measure changes in income. In other research Nelson has shown that households in poor countries replace their subsistence crop with a cash crop and so they must buy food. When there is a price shock their ability to feed their family is compromised. A final research emphasis examines the relationship between family stress during adolescence and subsequent young adult health outcomes such as obesity. The idea being that adolescent health endowments are dependent on parental investments.

Publications

  • Arifullah, S. and Onal, H. 2010. Effects of technological progress on consumers and producers welfare. Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 49 243:255.
  • Bassett, T. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2010. The atlas of world hunger. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010.
  • Dissanayake, S., Onal, H. and Westervelt, J. 2011. Optimum selection of conservation reserves: Extensions to multiple land use. Military Operations Research (Accepted).
  • Liverpool, S. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2011. Asset versus consumption poverty and poverty dynamics in rural ethiopia. Agricultural Economics (In Press).
  • Liverpool, S. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2010. Poverty status and the impact of formal credit on technology use and well-being among Ethiopian smallholders. World Development, 38 (2010):541-554.
  • Khanna, M., Chen, X., Huang, H. and Onal, H. 2011. Supply of Cellulosic Biofuel Feedstocks and Regional Production Patterns. American J. of Agricultural Economics (Forthcoming).
  • Khanna, M., Chen, X., Huang, H. and Onal, H. 2011. Land use and greenhouse gas mitigation effects of biofuel policies. University of Illinois Law Review (Forthcoming).
  • Khanna, M., Onal, H., Dhungana, B. and Wander, M. 2011. Economics of bioenergy crops for electricity generation: Implications for land use and greenhouse gases. Biomass and Bioenergy (Forthcoming).
  • Rashid, S., Winter-Nelson, A. and Garcia, P. 2010. Purpose and potential for commodity exchanges in african economies. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Discussion Paper 01035, December 2010.


Progress 01/01/09 to 12/31/09

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Robert Thompson played an important role in the worldwide discussion of agricultural and trade policy. His output included scores of presentations, including 14 in Illinois, 30 in 11 other states (including D.C.), 18 overseas in 7 different countries, and 13 as a guest lecturer on campus. He received frequent media queries for background on the farm bill, the WTO trade negotiations, the "world food crisis," the food vs. fuel debate, and the global financial crisis. His memberships on the USTR-USDA Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee on Trade and the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council have also provided excellent conduits to get his analysis of the policy alternatives directly into the deliberations. David Bullock provided public service through media interviews about agricultural policy and changes in agricultural technology. He worked with crop scientists in collaboration with John Deere Co. to create new information about how GPS-driven precision agricultural technology interacts with information about how crop yields respond to managed inputs. Bullock disseminated his research to other scholars through scholarly publications and presentations at academic conferences. He disseminated his research to the general public by being the subject of numerous interviews by the popular press, particularly in regard to his work on bio-energy and ethanol policy. Winter-Nelson's research was disseminated to academic audiences through scholarly publications and presentations. He disseminated his research to a more general audience by interviews with the popular media. In addition, as the ACE Department's Director of Graduate Studies, he facilitated the generation of numerous new Masters- and PhD-level agricultural, environmental, and consumer economists. Hayri Onal developed an economic simulation model for U.S. griculture and a transportation/facility location model that deals with the optimum infrastructure and transportation network for bioenergy inputs and outputs. The model is actually a general purpose model that can be used for a variety of policy issues surrounding U.WS. agriculture. In addition, Onal developed a spatial optimization model which generates compact legislative and congressional district maps. He was invited by colleagues at IGPA (the Institute of Government and Public Affairs) to present a seminar on this work. The seminar was well received and he has been asked to continue to work on this problem in the next few months (with partial funding from IGPA) using the Illinois data. Finally, in research supported by Soybean Disease and Biotechnology Center, Onal has developed a computer model for investigating the impacts of soybean rust on U.S. agriculture. PARTICIPANTS: Individuals: Joyce Allen-Smith, David S. Bullock, Hayri Onal, Robert Thompson, and Alex Winter-Nelson. Collaborators: Marion Desquilbet, French Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), Klaus Mittenzwei, Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF), Klaus Salhofer, Munich Technical University, Stelios Katranidis, University of Macedonia, Greece, Donald Bullock, University of Illinois Dept. of Crop Sciences, Matias Ruffo, University of Illinois Dept. of Crop Sciences, German Bollero, University of Illinois Dept. of Crop Sciences, and Saweda Liverpool, International Food Policy Research Institute, (Lagos, Nigeria). Other Cooperating Organizations: American Enterprise Institute, USTR-USDA Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee on Trade, and the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council. TARGET AUDIENCES: Besides the obvious audience of fellow scholars, Bullock's target audience in his research on agricultural policy is made up the consumers and taxpayers in the general populace, and those working in the agricultural sector, all of these people are impacted by agricultural policy. He also tries to catch the ear of policy-makers now and then. His target audience for his research on the economics of agricultural technology are the farmers and agribusinesses that may use new technology. Winter-Nelson's targeted audience, besides fellow researchers and scholars, are policy makers and other decision makers in developing countries, and those in industrialized countries that have significant dealings with developing economies. Joyce Allen-Smith's audience is made up of domestic and foreign policy makers who develop food and nutrition programs to benefit the rural poor. Hayri Onal's target audience consists of policy makers who need quantitative advice about the impacts of policy and technology change. Robert Thompson receives frequent media queries for background on the farm bill, the WTO trade negotiations, the "world food crisis," the food vs. fuel debate, and the global financial crisis. Helping the media "get the story right" puts a significant multiplier on his outreach capacity. His memberships on the USTR-USDA Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee on Trade and the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council have also provided excellent conduits to get his analysis of the policy alternatives directly into the deliberations. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
Thompson's and Bullock's general education of the public on agricultural policy matters is crucial if there is to ever be meaningful reform of current policy. Professor Bullock's research impacted the nation's understanding of the effects of new technology on agricultural production. He is currently working with agronomists to analyze data from agronomic experiments that will produce the kinds of information needed to make precision agricultural technology profitable for more farmers. Professor Bullock has also contributed to knowledge of how identity preservation and segregation of genetically modified commodities will affect prices throughout the world's grain markets and food chain. He continues to extend the theory of applied welfare economics, which guides economists in how to measure the economic effects of changes in agricultural policy and technology. Winter-Nelson's recent research has focused on agricultural policies and technologies in developing countries and their impacts on the welfare of local populations as well as their impacts on developed economies including the U.S. Access to international markets is often viewed as a key for poverty alleviation in developing countries. However, recent outbreaks of avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalitis, and salmonella poisoning all show that trade in agriculture brings economic and health risks that must be addressed through regulation. His research has considered institutional and economic constraints on international coordination and spatial considerations that inhibit policy responses to animal diseases and other food safety hazards. The goal of this research has been to identify institutions and regulations that can improve the prospects for markets to provide food safely, while creating economic opportunities for poor agriculturalists in Africa and elsewhere. Along these same lines he is conducting research on the relationship between trade-related technical assistance from the United States and other donors and import rejections based on food safety concerns to ascertain whether technical assistance could be better targeted to simultaneously improve food safety in the U.S. and improve access to export markets for developing countries. A second line of Winter-Nelson's research focuses on the impact of policies and technologies on poverty and hunger in Africa. In this context he has studied the effectiveness of new crop technologies (biofortified maize) in addressing micro-nutrient malnutrition in Mozambique, the impact of women's employment opportunities on commercial agriculture in Ethiopia, and the differential effects of micro-finance across households suffering different degrees of poverty in Ethiopia. Hayri Onal's research impacts the ability of decision makers to understand an quantify the effects of energy infrastructure, land use, soybean disease, and legislative boundary-making on society. While these topics are diverse, they can all be analyzed using Onal's skills in the science of computer-intensive constrained optimization. As a result, more than ever it is possible for decision makers to identify quantitatively how their decisions will affect society.

Publications

  • Bullock, D.S., Ruffo, M.L., Bullock, D.G. and Bollero, G.A. 2009. The value of precision technology: An information-theoretic approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91(February 2009): 209-223.
  • Desquilbet, M. and Bullock, D.S. 2009. Who pays the cost of GMO segregation and identity preservation American Journal of Agricultural Economics 91(August 2009): 656-672.
  • Liverpool, S. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2009. Poverty status and the impact of microfinance on technology use and wellbeing among ethiopian smallholders. World Development (In Press).
  • Thompson, R.L. 2008. Global warming, biofuels, and agriculture: Is encouraging corn-based ethanol production in the United States a bad public good Research Symposium on Bad Public Goods, Searle Center in Law, Regulation and Economic Growth, Northwestern University School of Law, Sept. 15-16, 2008.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2009. Agricultural crop and price insurance. Conference on Private Markets and Public Insurance Programs, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., Jan. 14, 2009.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2008. A long-term perspective on grain prices. Illinois Agri-News, vol. 31, no. 29, September 26, 2008, p. D2.
  • Winter-Nelson, A. 2009. International food safety regulations in the unit. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 91 (2009).


Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08

Outputs
OUTPUTS: Thompson's applied research provided the raw material for his extension public policy education presentations and popular publications on the 2008 farm bill and the WTO trade negotiations. His service as a member of the USTR-USDA Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee on Trade and on the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council provided excellent conduits to get his analysis of the policy alternatives directly into the deliberations. Bullock disseminated his research to other scholars through scholarly publications and presentations at academic conferences. He disseminated his research to the general public by being the subject of numerous interviews by the popular press, particularly in regard to his work on bio-energy and ethanol policy. Winter-Nelson's research was disseminated to academic audiences through scholarly publications and presentations. He disseminated his research to a more general audience by interviews with the popular media, including an interview played nation-wide on National Public Radio. Bullock's research on the economics of agricultural policy and agricultural technology was presented to lay and academic audiences in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. He participated in numerous interviews for radio, the print media, and hypermedia, with many of these interviews being about the costs and benefits of current U.S. bioenergy policy. PARTICIPANTS: David S. Bullock is a Professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He holds a Ph.D. in agricultural economics from the University of Chicago. His fields of interest include public policies for the agricultural sector, models of government decision making , the economics of agricultural technology, and applied welfare economics. Bullock's current collaborators: Klaus Mittenzwei of the Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute (NILF), Oslo, Norway. Klaus Salhofer, Professor of Agricultural Economics at the Technical University of Munich, Germany. Jukka Kola, Professor in the Department of Economics and Management at the University of Helsinki, Finland. Alex Winter-Nelson is a professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois. His research has been motivated by a desire to understand the relationship between market institutions and poverty in developing countries. Most of this research has related to East Africa, with some work in other regions of Africa and Latin America. Professor Winter-Nelson has also been active in developing academic programs and has served as graduate program director in the Center for African Studies and the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics. Winter-Nelson's recent collaborators: Saweda Liverpool, University of Illinois Shahidur Rashid, International Food Policy Research Institute Robyn Stevens, National Corn Growers Association Karl Rich, International Livestock Research Institute and American University of Cairo. Sung-Soo Lim, University of Minnesota Anna Temu, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania Nick Brozovic, University of Illinois Gay Miller, University of Illinois. Joyce Allen-Smith teaches and conducts research on domestic and international economic development. She was a Fulbright Fellow and visiting professor at the University of Nairobi, Kabete campus. The focus of her current research is on school feeding programs in Nairobi. TARGET AUDIENCES: Besides the obvious audience of fellow scholars, Bullock's target audience in his research on agricultural policy is made up the consumers and taxpayers in the general populace, and those working in the agricultural sector, all of these people are impacted by agricultural policy. He also tries to catch the ear of policy-makers now and then. His target audience for his research on the economics of agricultural technology are the farmers and agribusinesses that may use new technology. Winter-Nelson's targeted audience, besides fellow researchers and scholars, are policy makers and other decision makers in developing countries, and those in industrialized countries that have significant dealings with developing economies. Joyce Allen-Smith's audience is made of domestic and foreign policy makers who develop food and nutrition programs to benefit the rural poor. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Not relevant to this project.

Impacts
The main foci of Thompson's research during 2008 were current U.S. farm policy, the WTO agricultural trade negotiations, globalization, and exchange rates. This applied research provided the raw material for his extension public policy education presentations and popular publications on the 2008 farm bill and the WTO trade negotiations. We believe that such general education of the public on agricultural policy matters is crucial if there is to ever be meaningful reform of current policy. Professor Bullock's research impacted the nation's understanding of the effects of new technology on agricultural production. He is currently working with agronomists to analyze data from agronomic experiments that will produce the kinds of information needed to make precision agricultural technology profitable for more farmers. Professor Bullock has also contributed to knowledge of how identity preservation and segregation of genetically modified commodities will affect prices throughout the world's grain markets and food chain. He continues to extend the theory of applied welfare economics, which guides economists in how to measure the economic effects of changes in agricultural policy and technology. Winter-Nelson's recent research has focused on agricultural policies and technologies in developing countries and their impacts on the welfare of local populations as well as their impacts on developed economies including the U.S. Access to international markets is often viewed as a key for poverty alleviation in developing countries. However, recent outbreaks of avian influenza, bovine spongiform encephalitis, and salmonella poisoning all show that trade in agriculture brings economic and health risks that must be addressed through regulation. His research has considered institutional and economic constraints on international coordination and spatial considerations that inhibit policy responses to animal diseases and other food safety hazards. The goal of this research has been be to identify institutions and regulations that can improve the prospects for markets to provide food safely, while creating economic opportunities for poor agriculturalists in Africa and elsewhere. Along these same lines he is conducting research on the relationship between trade-related technical assistance from the United States and other donors and import rejections based on food safety concerns to ascertain whether technical assistance could be better targeted to simultaneously improve food safety in the U.S. and improve access to export markets for developing countries. A second line of Winter-Nelson's research focuses on the impact of policies and technologies on poverty and hunger in Africa. In this context he has studied the effectiveness of new crop technologies (biofortified maize) in addressing micro-nutrient malnutrition in Mozambique, the impact of women's employment opportunities on commercial agriculture in Ethiopia, and the differential effects of micro-finance across households suffering different degrees of poverty in Ethiopia.

Publications

  • Desquilbet, M. and Bullock, D.S. 2009. Who pays the cost of GMO segregation and identity preservation American Journal of Agricultural Economics (Forthcoming).
  • Bullock, D.S., Ruffo, M.L., Bullock, D.G. and Bollero, G.A. 2009. The value of precision technology: An information-theoretic approach. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 91: 209-223.
  • Winter-Nelson, A. and Rich, K. 2008. Mad cows and sick birds: What international response to animal disease in developing countries Development Policy Review, Vol 28: 211-226.
  • Stevens, R. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2008. Consumer acceptance of biofortified maize in mozambique. Food Policy: 341-351.


Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07

Outputs
Thompson's applied research provided the raw material for his extension public policy education presentations and popular publications on the 2007 farm bill and the WTO trade negotiations. His service as a member of the USTR-USDA Agricultural Policy Advisory Committee on Trade and on the International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council provided excellent conduits to get his analysis of the policy alternatives directly into the deliberations. Bullock disseminated his research to other scholars through scholarly publications, presentations at academic conferences. He disseminated his research to the general public by being the subject of numerous interviews by the popular press, particularly in regard to his work on bio-energy and ethanol policy. Winter-Nelson's research was disseminated to academic audiences through scholarly publications and presentations. He disseminated his research to a more general audience by interviews with the popular media, including an interview played nation-wide on National Public Radio.

Impacts
Nelson's research has contributed to our understanding of the spatial extent of potential and actual externalities from agriculture and suggests opportunities for cost-efficient policy interventions. Winter-Nelson's work on animal disease control supports better analysis of the international spread of diseases that are important to both human health and economic performance. This research contributes to improve international targeting and coordination of disease control interventions by national governments and international organizations. Work on biofortified maize suggests the potential benefits to further development of vitamin A rich corn varieties for consumption in developing countries. The main foci of Thompson's research during FY 07 were current U.S. farm policy, the WTO agricultural trade negotiations, globalization, and exchange rates. This applied research provided the raw material for his extension public policy education presentations and popular publications on the 2007 farm bill and the WTO trade negotiations. We believe that such general education of the public on agricultural policy matters is crucial if there is to ever be meaningful reform of current policy. Professor Bullock's research impacted the nation's understanding of the effects of new technology on agricultural production. He is currently working with agronomists to analyze data from agronomic experiments that will produce the kinds of information needed to make precision agricultural technology profitable for more farmers. Professor Bullock has also contributed to knowledge of how identity preservation and segregation of genetically modified commodities will affect prices throughout the world's grain markets and food chain. He continues to extend the theory of applied welfare economics, which guides economists in how to measure the economic effects of changes in agricultural policy and technology.

Publications

  • Bertini, C., Schumacher, G. and Thompson, R., eds. 2006. Modernizing Americas food and farm policy: Vision for a new direction. Chicago: Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
  • Bullock, D.S., Ruffo, M.L., Bullock, D.G. and Bollero. G.A. 2008. The value of precision technology: An information-theoretic approach. Amer. J. Ag. Econ. (Accepted).
  • Bullock, D.S. and Rutstrom, E.E. 2007. Policy making and rent-dissipation: An experimental test. Exper. Econ. 10:21-36.
  • Bullock, D.S. and Lowenberg-DeBoer, J. 2007. Using spatial analysis to study the values of variable rate technology and information. J. Agr. Econ. 53:517-535.
  • Bullock, D.S., Kitchen, N. and Bullock, D.G. 2007. Multi-disciplinary teams: A necessity for research in precision agriculture systems. Prec. Agr. 47:1765-1769.
  • Bullock, D.S. and Minot, N. 2006. On measuring the value of a nonmarket good using market data. Amer. J. Ag. Econ. 88:961-973.
  • De Pinto, A. and Nelson, G.C. 2008. Land use change with spatially explicit data: a dynamic approach. Env. and Res. Econ. (Forthcoming).
  • De Pinto, A. and Nelson, G.C. 2007. Modeling deforestation and land-use change: Sparse data environments. J. Agr. Econ. 58:502-516.
  • Gardner, J. and Nelson G. 2007. Herbicides, glyphosate-resistance and acute mammalian toxicity: Simulating an environmental effect of glyphosate-resistant weeds. U.S. Pest Mgt. Rev. (Forthcoming).
  • Green, K., Plasker, J., Nelson, G. and Lauer, D. 2007. Report to the future land imaging working group of the American Society for Photogrammetry. Eng. and Remote Sensing 73:5-9.
  • Josling, T., Sumner, D.A., Thompson, R.L., Chambliss, M. and Laney, K. 2007. The 2007 Farm Bill: Implications for developing countries. Washington DC: International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council, IPC Issue Brief No. 25.
  • Lantican, S.G.M. and Nelson, G.C. 2006. Overcoming SPS barriers to trade: Philippine mangoes and EBT technology. Cabanilla, L.S., Andrada, M.G. and Inciong, L O. Makati City, Philippines: Fulbright Philippine Agricultural Alumni Association.
  • Nelson, G.C. and Robertson, R.D. 2007. Comparing the GLC2000 and GeoCover LC land cover datasets for use in economic modelling of land use. Int. J. Remote Sensing. 28:1-20.
  • Lim, S.S., Winter-Nelson, A. and Arends-Kuenning, M. 2007. Household bargaining power and agricultural supply response: Evidence from Ethiopian coffee growers. World Dev. 35:1204-1220.
  • Rich, K. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2007. An integrated epidemiological-economic analysis of foot and mouth disease: Applications to the southern cone of South America. Amer. J. Agr. Econ, 89:682-697.
  • Ruffo, M.L., Bollero, G.A., Bullock, D.S. and Bullock, D.G. 2006. Site-specific production functions for variable rate corn nitrogen fertilization. Prec. Agr. 46:327-342.
  • Stevens, R. and Winter-Nelson, A. 2008. Consumer acceptance of biofortified maize in Mozambique. Food Pol. (Accepted).
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. Current state of the Farm Bill debate. 2007 Illinois Farmland Values and Lease Trends. Journal of the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers: 59-61.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. Globalization and the benefits of trade. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Chicago Fed Letter, Essays on Issues number 236. (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflmarch2007_236.pd f).
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. Globalization and rural America. Chicago: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: Chicago Fed Letter, Essays on Issues number 239. (http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflmarch2007_239.pd f)
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. The next Farm Bill. Huff, K.M., et al, eds. Agrifood Regulatory and Policy Integration Under Stress. Altona, Manitoba, Canada: Friesens, pp. 157-182.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. What's ahead with the 2007 Farm Bill? 2007. The Chicago Farmers magazine, p. 6.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2007. The 2007 Farm Bill and the WTO trade negotiations. Ill. Agri-News 30: C-8.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2006. Globalization: Benefits and costs. Ill. Agr. Policy Briefs, no. APB 06-04.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2006. The 2007 Farm Bill: Prospects for change. Farm Income 2007 Proceedings, Farmdoc, Dept. of Agr. and Cons. Econ., University of Illinois, December 2006.
  • Thompson, R.L. 2006. Whither direct payments? Ill. Agri-News 30:B-6.
  • Winter-Nelson, A. and Rich, K. 2008. Mad cows and sick birds: What international response to animal disease in developing countries? Dev. Pol. Rev. (Accepted).