Progress 07/01/06 to 09/30/11
Outputs
Target Audience:
Nothing Reported
Changes/Problems:
Nothing Reported
What opportunities for training and professional development has the project provided?
Nothing Reported
How have the results been disseminated to communities of interest?
Nothing Reported
What do you plan to do during the next reporting period to accomplish the goals?
Nothing Reported
Impacts
What was accomplished under these goals?
PI is no longer at the University of Arizona.
Publications
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Progress 01/01/08 to 12/31/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: In recent decades population growth in Arizona (and much of the western U.S.) has increased sharply, and the state has consistently ranked among the fastest growing states in the country. Much of this growth has occurred in rural--exurban--areas of southern Arizona, well beyond the boundaries of major cities and towns, especially Tucson, the largest urban center in the southern part of the state. Exurban development deserves our attention because of its environmental impacts. These include, for example, land fragmentation, the introduction of nonnative plant and animal species, and alteration of rural watersheds. This project seeks to identify factors that motivate exurban land development. The overarching question is: how and why do land developers choose specific parcels for development. Issues of interest include: 1] locational factors such as accessibility, proximity to federal/state/local parks and preserves, and land availability; 2] economic concerns such as land prices and development costs (economies of scale), and; 3] environmental regulations such as the Endangered Species Act and habitat conservation measures that apply to rural areas. The project seeks to answer this question by pursuing a three stage research strategy. First, interviews with land developers identified issues of interest when selecting parcels for development. Second, secondary data were used to quantify the volume, location, and timing of exurban land development in southern counties of Arizona. Third, survey results and secondary data will be used to identify lands most susceptible to future land development. Work continues on data compilation and assessment in view of the project's modification. PARTICIPANTS: The PI is working on the project alone and is monitoring recent exurban land development trends. TARGET AUDIENCES: Numerous stakeholders will benefit from the project, including rural land managers, property owners, land developers and state and local officials. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: The ongoing recession and housing bust have seriously hampered the project. The country's financial and economic crises are unprecedented and have brought land development in southern Arizona to a standstill. Indeed, Arizona is among the states most severely affected by the recession and housing crisis. The number of housing starts is a fraction of previous years, many developers and homebuilders have been forced out of business, and the public is leery of venturing into housing markets (rural or urban) altogether. Needless-to-say, none of this was anticipated when the project was conceived. Nonetheless, the project can be modified so that it remains viable. For example, the identification of at-risk rural lands may be improved as recovery of the housing market takes place. In effect, the housing crisis sets a benchmark in which land development is nearly nonexistent. As the market recovers, I anticipate that exurban properties deemed most valuable will be brought into development first, thereby revealing the highest preference. This may serve as a working hypothesis that informs reorganization of the project.
Impacts
There is little doubt that the longer term viability of plant and animal communities is affected by exurban land development. The critical issue is that unlike federal/state/local parks and preserves that are "protected" by regulations and highly qualified personnel, exurban development involves privately-owned lands that often fall beyond the regulatory radar. This means that the fate of plant and animal communities is largely shouldered by the millions of private property owners who own vast tracts of near-pristine lands. These property owners, however, rely on land developers (and home builders) who are drawn to the exurban landscape to begin with, especially in the western U.S. Thus, understanding why particular parcels are selected for development (rather than other parcels) assists in identifying potential longer term development trends. Land management policies and mitigation techniques can be designed accordingly.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: This project seeks to understand the factors that determine land selection for exurban development in rural (nonmetropolitan) southern Arizona. Phase I of the project, which ran from 1/01/06 - 12/31-06, evaluated the reasons, or rationale, that motivate the selection of exurban parcels. Land developers and home builders involved with rural land development were asked (in face-to-face interviews) to identify principal issues they consider is site selection, such as access, quantity of land, proximity to parks and preserves, land prices, view sheds, and proximity to natural amenities such as hiking and birding trails. They were also asked to indicate the extent to which environmental regulations such as the Endangered Species Act and locally imposed regulations such as open space conservation districts influenced their site selection decisions. Twenty companies that account for over 80 percent of all fringe and exurban development in Pima County were interviewed. The project
entered Phase II during 2007. This phase focused on documenting the extent of exurban land development in Pima County, Arizona. Using secondary data obtained from the Arizona Department of Real Estate and Pima County's Department of Development Services, the number of single-family (detached) developments platted during the years 2000-2006 were identified, along with the size (in acres) and number of units in each development. The companies responsible for each residential development were also recorded. Data were classified according to location of the development: within the City of Tucson, fringe development, development in or near small exurban communities, and stand alone exurban developments. Data were also analyzed by the firm responsible for each residential development. The analysis of home builder companies enables identification of at-risk lands by identifying the market structure of the local home building industry. Market structure is an important indicator of at-risk
lands because it may be that only a handful of companies are active in the exurban housing market. Such market dominance, coupled with their site selection decisions, may go a far way in determining lands targeted for future development. All data compilation and analysis were completed by December 2007.
PARTICIPANTS: The PI was responsible for much of the data compilation, mapping, and data analysis. He also tested for data accuracy by field work. A doctoral research assistant, Jason Field, participated in data collection.
TARGET AUDIENCES: The results of the project may prove valuable to a diverse audience of home builders, rural land managers, county planners and officials, and environmental groups and organizations involved with rural land preservation. Outcomes may well inform future preservation efforts as well policies and conflict resolution approaches. The PI has also used project outcomes in classroom instruction, where students learn first hand of the extent of exurban land development, discuss the ecological implications, and consider ways of mediating land use conflict.
PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Two factors have had a significant impact that may well alter the project's outcomes. First, the nation's housing crisis, which is expected to continue through 2009, has slowed residential development considerably and altered the decisions of home builders and land developers. Second, the looming oil shortage has changed consumer preferences so that the demand for exurban, or rural lands is declining. This, coupled with the housing crisis, may dampen the demand for exurban housing dramatically as home buyers seek inner city housing to lessen transportation costs. This has already impacted the ability to publish, and may require alteration of the project. For example, it may make sense to extend the data collection cycle so that the impacts of the housing and energy crises are integrated into outcomes. These modifications will be considered during 2008 as the economic downturn unfolds.
Impacts
Rural, or exurban, land conversion in the desert southwest remains a critical problem as developers and home builders continue to seek pristine lands for large scale residential projects. This holds especially for Arizona, which is considered the fastest growing state in the country. The project examines land conversion in nonmetropolitan areas of southern Arizona because home owners are drawn to the unique Sonoran desert ecosystem and the network of sky islands that dot the landscape. Numerous impacts arise from exurban development as habitats are compromised, nonnative species are introduced and encroachment spreads farther into the countryside. By identifying lands best suited for exurban residential development, preservation policies may be put in place, or conflict resolution methods applied to mitigate ecological impacts.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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Progress 07/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
This project seeks to understand the factors that determine land selection for exurban development in rural (nonmetropolitan) southern Arizona. The project has been divided into four phases: 1] data compilation for home builders in southern Arizona; 2] data compilation for home buyers in southern Arizona; 3] development of a risk assessment model to predict wildlands that are most likely to be developed in the future; 4] writing of articles/reports. The first year (07/01/06 - 12/31-06) was dedicated to compiling data for home builders (Phase 1). This followed a two-stage procedure. First, interviews were conducted with twenty companies that, combined, account for approximately 85% of all fringe and exurban land development in southern Pima County. This is one of the fastest growing counties in Arizona and the nation. Surveys identified principal factors that motivate land selection and home building activity in rural areas of the county. At issue is understanding the
importance of accessibility, the availability of wildlands and open space, natural amenities (federal and state parks / recreation areas, riparian areas, wildlife corridors), and land use regulations in site selection decisions. Second, we began compiling a comprehensive data base of residential developments for the 42 largest home builders in southern Arizona, including, Pinal, Pima, Graham, Cochise and Santa Cruz counties for the period 2000 - 2006. This is time consuming exercise given the size and scope of residential development in southern Arizona. Once completed, the data base will be used to evaluate the competitive market structure of the exurban housing industry. In addition to data gathering, a comprehensive literature review was initiated to study the theoretical and applied research on rural and exurban housing markets. Data compilation and the literature review will extend into 2007. Publications and reports were not generated during the first year because the focus was
on data compilation.
Impacts
The project will advance our understanding of wildlands that are most susceptible to conversion as exurban development extends further into rural areas and into remote communities. The project will have a significant impact because land and resource managers must confront a range of problems that arise from exurban development. This applies especially to the western United States but holds for much of the country as wildlands and agricultural regions are converted to exurban uses. The project will develop a risk assessment model that identifies lands that are most likely to be developed in the years ahead. The model builds on a process-based approach that targets the behavior and decision-making of home builders and land developers. The model will assist in the development of policies that target preservation and the use of cutting edge land management tools.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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