Progress 04/04/05 to 06/30/06
Outputs
In our approach, 3 superimposed levels of zoning are developed. The first level relates to biophysical site conditions, and is intended to codify those areas on the landscape which have the characteristics which make them most suitable for woody vegetation management activities, and which have the potential to provide the highest quality pronghorn habitat. The second level relates to current and potential pronghorn use areas, using both telemetry information from the current herd and identified potential use areas based on geographic location, characteristics, and proximity to existing use areas. The third level of zoning bounds the analysis area and limits the spatial extent of management activities and habitat assessments 3 management scenarios were developed and analyzed to provide concrete visual and numerical evidence of the benefits to be achieved through aggressive woodland management activities, in the areas specified by current management direction. The
scenarios represent 3 approaches to implementing woodland clearing activities which were situated on USFS land, on mollisol soils, in NEPA-cleared areas, and consisted of juniper-woodland vegetation with greater than 2%, but less than 25%, estimated canopy cover The 3 scenarios are: The "Max Treatment" scenario, where all areas which fit the criteria are treated. This provides a picture of the maximum amount of area which can be treated within the criteria, as well as the operational implications of that strategy and the maximum change in woodland extent which can be obtained within the criteria. Approximately 10,512 acres meet the selection criteria, and the total cost to treat these areas is approximately $663,000. The "$500,000 Unpatched" scenario, which identifies the maximum extent of the area which fits the criteria, and which can be treated for an estimated budget of $500,000. The least expensive acres which fit the criteria are generally selected. 9,187 acres were identified
for treatment . The "$500,000 Patched" scenario, which is similar to the previous scenario, but attempts to concentrate the treatments into as many contiguous patches of greater than 150 acres in size as possible. This is intended to better reflect operational realities, and improve operational efficiency in implementation. Some higher cost acres are treated to achieve the patch treatment patch contiguity, slightly increasing per acre treatment cost, and therefore slightly reducing the amount of area which can be treated within the $500,000 budget. 8,565 acres were identified for treatment.
Impacts
This project has realized on-the-ground management impact, resulting from our successful collaboration with the US Forest Service, and Arizona Game and Fish. Funding has been secured for, and implementation has begun, of our Anderson Mesa analysis and a scenario conceptually similar to our "$500,000 Patched" scenario. The "footprint" of these activities, reflecting the on-the-ground impact of our research, will total near 10,000 acres of vegetation management activities over the next 2-3 years. These activities are being conducted on US Forest Service lands, with the cooperation of the State of Arizona. Public and professional presentations regarding our work have been made at scientific meetings, professional workshops, and public meetings. These have included presentations to the Arizona Pronghorn Roundtable and the Anderson Mesa Core Advisory Group. Technical papers were presented at the 8th Biennial Conference of Research on the Colorado Plateau, and the Forest
Estate Models for the Future Conference in 2007 New mathematical techniques have been developed and refined in the course of this work, to make the scenarios more realistic and compliant with manager objectives and information needs. These techniques should be publishable in the scientific and/or technical literature, and it is our intention to do so. These techniques are briefly described in Appendix B. We believe that the methodology we have developed and tested on Anderson Mesa represents a step forward in large-area habitat restoration and management planning. While these techniques may not be justified or necessary in many cases, we have shown how scientific knowledge, management experience, disparate sources of data, software tools, and analytical techniques can come together to address important real-world problems. While development and distribution of computer software has not been a goal of this project so far, significant analytical and computational resources exist at the
NAU School of Forestry as a result of this and related projects. I personally, and I believe the School of Forestry in general, would welcome further discussions on the future of the significant analytical and computational resources at NAU, and how we can best meet the knowledge needs of the Arizona Department of Game and Fish, the US Forest Service, and other potential cooperators.
Publications
- Clark, M.J. Landscape-Level Modeling For Pronghorn Habitat Restoration Planning On Anderson Mesa, Arizona. M.S. Thesis. Northern Arizona University. (2006).
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Progress 01/01/05 to 12/31/05
Outputs
Met with USFS and AZGF at NAU on 23 May, 2005 for project scoping: Agreed upon project scope and objectives, defined specific project boundaries and agreed on desired agency and NAU participants Began building a digital map and image database integrating available USFS, AZGF, ForestERA, and NRCS data including;Project area boundary, vegetation cover, soils and TES, pronghorn Habitat use from GPS, previous and already planned treatment areas, old pushes, T&E species, DRG's and DEM's, roads and DOQQ's We established work plan for extension of ForestERA data to cover full study area Landscape units (High and Medium pronghorn use areas based on GPS collar locations and expert knowledge (Richard Miller, AZGF) have been completed and digitized Draft canopy density layer (developed by Tom Sisk and the ForestERA group, NAU) completed with the exception of a small area on the far eastern edge of the analysis unit. Data is sufficient for initial analysis. Habitat type layer
(based on grassland potential derived from TES and NRCS data) completed. This layer combines information regarding the grassland potential of soils and slope classification pertinent to pronghorn ecology. Consulted with Rick Miller (AZGF) and Henry Provencio (USFS) to identify and compile key special management areas, whose characteristics may influence decisions for where future woodland treatments may (and may not) be implemented in the analysis area. We then synthesized this spatial data into a SMA submodel. Key special management areas in the SMA submodel include: fires since 1971, old slash areas mapped by AZGFD, completed woodland treatment, NEPA-cleared treatments, and other planned treatment areas. Completed Landscape Unit (LU) submodel, which zones and codifies pronghorn use in the analysis area based upon clusters of GPS pronghorn locations. Ran preliminary scenarios and demonstrated the Lurch optimization model to Steve Rosenstock and Rick Miller. Gained input from Rick
Miller on indicator targets for preliminary scenarios. Corrected and updated Cover Type (canopy cover) layer to include the most recently completed woodland treatments (current as of 12/05). Management scenarios have been developed and evaluated. Additional scenarios are in the process of development. We expect to conduct a meeting with AZGF and the USFS in early June to present our results and get feedback on our efforts.
Impacts
Final results of this work have not yet been presented. Preliminary discussions have been held with AZGF and USFS regarding using this analysis to demonstrate the relationship between forest management plans and projects under the new 2005 USFS Planning Rule.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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