Progress 02/01/06 to 12/31/10
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Development of a watershed condition assessment for the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, and the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River was carried out. This project includes a model that addresses water quality as a function of macroinvertebrate indices as well as a chemical/physical assessment model. Terrestrial issues were also modeled with major emphasis on impermeable surface percentage and percent forested land cover. These models are implemented in both NetWeaver and spatially into GeoNetWeaver. A report has been prepared and delivered to the National Park Service. Work with the Giant Sequoia National Monument ended in 2009 as models of fire return interval and optimum age and stand density models for grove and stand conditions were developed in NetWeaver and included in the Ecosystem Management Decision System. This effort was in support of the development of a long term management plan for GSNM. Work was completed on development of a stand-alone decisions support tool for identifying habitat suitability for all avian species associated with Fort Indiantown Gap Military Reservation. Funded by the Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs (DMVA), this project is to be a proof of concept effort that likely will lead to additional analysis tools to assist DMVA in assessing and managing biodiversity resources. NetWeaver and GeoNetWeaver have been rewritten and are currently undergoing further testing. This effort is meant to streamline the user interface, and to save projects as binary files rather than the traditional text files. Collaboration with The Redlands Institute continues in order to make these valuable software engineering tools more available to researchers seeking to develop decision support systems. Computational models for gypsy moth dynamics were developed to understand why certain xeric forest types (notably Oak-Pine) have significantly more frequent outbreaks (with an inter-outbreak period around 5 years) than more mesic forest types (such as Oak-Hickory; that have inter-outbreak periods around 10 years). This model showed that such heterogeneities can be account for by differences in small mammal predation rates. A paper detailing the analysis is currently in revision for Ecology. A spatial model was developed to study how rates of synchronization along the invasion front depends on local gypsy dynamics. This study was published in a special issue of Population Ecology. A new post-doctoral scholar, Dr. Tomas De-Camino-Beck was hired to work on improved methods for estimating local invasion rates. The new method allows us to calculate not only local rates of spread but also the direction of movement. The method involves wombling of the surface of the waiting times to species establishment to generate a field of speed vectors that describe local invasion spread across a landscape. We applied the method to the gypsy moth invasion to show how local rates of spread can be correlated with local habitat features. A paper detailing the analysis is currently in review in Ecology. A further paper detailing how outbreak frequency depends of abundance of generalist predators is further in press in Ecology. PARTICIPANTS: On the National Park Service project, project PI is Dr. Carolyn Mahan, PSU Altoona, and programmer is Mr. Bruce Miller. Other participants include John Karish, Chief Scientist for the National Park Service in the northeastern US, as well as DEWA and UPDE park staff who are regularly consulted on the progress and direction of this effort. Ottar N. Bjornstad led the Penn State University-based portion of the Gypsy moth project and supervised theoretical model development and statistical analyses of gypsy moth dynamics. Andrew M. Liebhold and Patrick C. Tobin are collaborators in the USDA Forest Service that oversee the 'Slow-the-Spread' program. Dr. Tomas De-Camino-Beck is the post-doctoral fellow. On the DMVA project, in addition to M. Saunders and B. Miller, Mr. Joe Hovis of Fort Indiantown Gap provides oversight and guidance in the suitability of our decision support tools. TARGET AUDIENCES: The software based modeling approaches and tools developed in support of this project are being used throughout the U.S. Forest Service, USDI National Park Service, Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs, and internationally by the US Agency for International Development. The target audience is in part the academic community involved in the study of invasions and outbreaks of forest insect pests, and in part advisory to the 'Slow-the-Spread' campaign of USDA forest service to help mitigate the damage caused by the ongoing gypsy moth invasion. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Dr. Ottar Bjornstad, Professor of Entomology and Biology, joined the project to work on modeling relevant to management of the ongoing PA outbreak of gypsy moth.
Impacts
Knowledge engineering approaches are emerging as the only method for integrating and interpreting complex multidisciplinary data sets. Ecological analyses, land use planning, pollution assessment, preservation of threatened and endangered species, and environmental maintenance and restoration will all be enhanced by incorporation of this paradigm. Specific to this reporting period, the USDI National Park Service is looking at several different approaches, including our NetWeaver-based approach, for potential widespread adoption as a formalized approach to watershed assessments. The Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs are looking to this project as the source of a variety of decision support tools to assist in managing biodiversity resources. The gypsy moth models are advisory to the 'Slow-the-Spread' campaign of USDA forest service to help mitigate the damage caused by the ongoing gypsy moth invasion. The new method for estimating local spread rates will help better target control on 'fast spreading' habitats.
Publications
- Bi, C., M. C. Saunders, and B. A. McPheron. 2007. Wing Pattern-Based Classification of the Rhagoletis pomonella Species Complex Using Genetic Neural Networks. Intl. J. Computer Sci. & Appl. 4(3)1-14.
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Progress 10/01/08 to 09/30/09
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Development of a watershed condition assessment for the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, and the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River was completed. This project includes a model that addresses water quality as a function of macroinvertebrate indices as well as a chemical/physical assessment model. Terrestrial issues were also modeled with major emphasis on impermeable surface percentage and percent forested land cover. These models are implemented in both NetWeaver and spatially into GeoNetWeaver. A draft report has been prepared and delivered to the National Park Service. Work with the Giant Sequoia National Monument continued as models of fire return interval and optimum age and stand density models for grove and stand conditions were developed in NetWeaver and included in the Ecosystem Management Decision System. This effort is in support of the development of a long term management plan for GSNM. A new post-doctoral scholar, Dr. Tomas De-Camino-Beck was hired to work on improved methods for estimating local invasion rates. The new method allows us to calculate not only local rates of spread but also the direction of movement. The method involves wombling of the surface of the waiting times to species establishment to generate a field of speed vectors that describe local invasion spread across a landscape. We applied the method to the gypsy moth invasion to show how local rates of spread can be correlated with local habitat features. A paper detailing the analysis is currently in review in Ecology. A further paper detailing how outbreak frequency depends of abundance of generalist predators is further in press in Ecology. PARTICIPANTS: On the National Park Service project, project PI is Dr. Carolyn Mahan, PSU Altoona, and programmer is Mr. Bruce Miller. Other participants include John Karish, Chief Scientist for the National Park Service in the northeastern US, as well as DEWA and UPDE park staff who are regularly consulted on the progress and direction of this effort. Ottar N. Bjornstad led the Penn State University-based portion of the Gypsy moth project and supervised theoretical model development and statistical analyses of gypsy moth dynamics. Andrew M. Liebhold and Patrick C. Tobin are collaborators in the USDA Forest Service that oversee the 'Slow-the-Spread' program. Dr. Tomas De-Camino-Beck is the post-doctoral fellow. TARGET AUDIENCES: The software based modeling approaches and tools developed in support of this project are being used throughout the U.S. Forest Service, USDI National Park Service, Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs, and internationally by the US Agency for International Development. The target audience is in part the academic community involved in the study of invasions and outbreaks of forest insect pests, and in part advisory to the 'Slow-the-Spread' campaign of USDA forest service to help mitigate the damage caused by the ongoing gypsy moth invasion. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Dr. Ottar Bjornstad, Professor of Entomology and Biology, joined the project to work on modeling relevant to management of the ongoing PA outbreak of gypsy moth.
Impacts
Knowledge engineering approaches are emerging as the only method for integrating and interpreting complex multidisciplinary data sets. Ecological analyses, land use planning, pollution assessment, preservation of threatened and endangered species, and environmental maintenance and restoration will all be enhanced by incorporation of this paradigm. Specific to this reporting period, the USDI National Park Service is looking at several different approaches, including our NetWeaver-based approach, for potential widespread adoption as a formalized approach to watershed assessments. The Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs are looking to this project as the source of a variety of decision support tools to assist in managing biodiversity resources. The gypsy moth models are advisory to the 'Slow-the-Spread' campaign of USDA forest service to help mitigate the damage caused by the ongoing gypsy moth invasion. The new method for estimating local spread rates will help better target control on 'fast spreading' habitats.
Publications
- Bjornstad, O. N., C. Robinet, and A. M. Liebhold. 2009. Geographic variation in north american gypsy moth cycles: subharmonics, generalist predators and spatial coupling. Ecology. (In Press).
- Rauschert, E. S. J., D. A. Mortensen, O. N. Bjornstad, A. N. Nord and N. Peskin. 2009. Slow spread of the aggressive invader, Microstegium vimineum (Japanese stiltgrass). Biological Invasons. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10530-009-9463-y
- Tobin, P. C., C. Robinet, D. M. Johnson, S. L. Whitmire, O. N. Bjornstad, and A. M. Liebhold. 2009. The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions. Population Ecology 51:373-384. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-009-0144-6.
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Progress 10/01/07 to 09/30/08
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Work continued on development of a watershed condition model for the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, and the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River. To date, this project has established an automated Water Quality Indicator (WQI) module, and a prototype module to address biotic elements, including a module to address EPT measures. These models are implemented in both NetWeaver and spatially into GeoNetWeaver. Additionally, terrestrial data have been integrated with aquatic data for the purposes of watershed assessment. Work on this project is expected to be completed by June 30, 2009. Work with the Great Sequoia National Monument was undertaken. Models of grove and stand conditions are being written using NetWeaver for inclusion in the Ecosystem Management Decision System. This effort is in support of the development of the long term management plan for GSNM. Computational models for gypsy moth dynamics were developed to understand why certain xeric forest types (notably Oak-Pine) have significantly more frequent outbreaks (with an inter-outbreak period around 5 years) than more mesic forest types (such as Oak-Hickory; that have inter-outbreak periods around 10 years). This model showed that such heterogeneities can be account for by differences in small mammal predation rates. A paper detailing the analysis is currently in revision for 'Ecology'. A spatial model was developed to study how rates of synchronization along the invasion front depends on local gypsy dynamics. This study was published in a special issue of 'Population Ecology'. PARTICIPANTS: On the National Park Service project, project P. I. is Dr. Carolyn Mahan, PSU Altoona, and programmer is Mr. Bruce Miller. Other participants include John Karish, Chief Scientist for the National Park Service in the northeastern US, as well as DEWA and UPDE park staff who are regularly consulted on the progress and direction of this effort. Ottar N. Bjornstad led the Penn State University-based portion of the project and supervised theoretical model development and statistical analyses of gypsy moth dynamics. Andrew M. Liebhold and Patrick C. Tobin are collaborators in the USDA Forest Service that oversee the 'Slow-the-Spread' program. TARGET AUDIENCES: The software based modeling approaches and tools developed in support of this project are being used throughout the U.S. Forest Service, USDI National Park Service, Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs, and internationally by the US Agency for International Development. The target audience is in part the academic community involved in the study of invasions and outbreaks of forest insect pests, and in part advisory to the 'Slow-the-Spread' campaign of USDA forest service to help mitigate the damage caused by the ongoing gypsy moth invasion. PROJECT MODIFICATIONS: Dr. Ottar Bjornstad, Professor of Entomology and Biology, joined the project to work on modeling relevant to management of the ongoing PA outbreak of gypsy moth.
Impacts
Knowledge engineering approaches are emerging as the only method for integrating and interpreting complex multidisciplinary data sets. Ecological analyses, land use planning, pollution assessment, preservation of threatened and endangered species, and environmental maintenance and restoration will all be enhanced by incorporation of this paradigm. Specific to this reporting period, the USDI National Park Service is looking at several different approaches, including our NetWeaver-based approach, for potential widespread adoption as a formalized approach to watershed assessments. The Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs are looking to this project as the source of a variety of decision support tools to assist in managing biodiversity resources. The gypsy moth models are advisory to the 'Slow-the-Spread' campaign of USDA forest service to help mitigate the damage caused by the ongoing gypsy moth invasion.
Publications
- Tobin, P. C., S. Whitmire, D. M. Johnson, O. N. Bjornstad, and A. M. Liebhold. 2007. Invasion speed is affected by geographic variation in the strength of Allee effects. Ecology Letters 10:36-43.
- Bjornstad, O. N., A. M. Liebhold, and D. M. Johnson. 2008. Transient synchronization following invasion: revisiting Moran's model and a case study. Population Ecology. 50:379-389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10144-008-0105-5.
- Bi, C., M. C. Saunders, and B. A. McPheron. 2008. Neuro-Fuzzy Classification of the Rhagoletis pomonella Species Group Using Digitized Wing Structure Proceedings of the IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence in Bioinformatics and Computational Biology. Idaho. USA. IEEE Publisher. pp. 159-165.
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Progress 01/01/07 to 12/31/07
Outputs
OUTPUTS: Work continued on development of a watershed condition model for the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, and the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River. To date, this project has established an automated Water Quality Indicator (WQI) module, and a prototype module to address biotic elements, including a module to address EPT measures. These models are implemented in both NetWeaver and spatially into GeoNetWeaver. Work on this project is expected to be completed by December 31, 2008. Work commenced on development of a stand-alone decisions support tool for identifying habitat suitability for all avian species associated with Fort Indiantown Gap Military Reservation. Funded by the Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs (DMVA), this project is to be a proof of concept effort that likely will lead to additional analysis tools to assist DMVA in assessing and managing biodiversity resources. NetWeaver and GeoNetWeaver have been rewritten and are currently
undergoing beta testing. This new implementation is meant to streamline the user interface, and to save projects as binary files rather than the traditional text files. Collaboration with The Redlands Institute continues in order to make these valuable software engineering tools more available to researchers seeking to develop decision support systems.
PARTICIPANTS: On the National Park Service project, project PI is Dr. Carolyn Mahan, PSU Altoona, and programmer is Mr. Bruce Miller. Other participants include John Karish, Chief Scientist for the National Park Service in the northeastern US, as well as DEWA and UPDE park staff who are regularly consulted on the progress and direction of this effort. On the DMVA project, in addition to M. Saunders and B. Miller, Mr. Joe Hovis of Fort Indiantown Gap provides oversight and guidance in the suitability of our decision support tools.
TARGET AUDIENCES: The software based modeling approaches and tools developed in support of this project are being used throughout the U.S. Forest Service, USDI National Park Service, Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs, and internationally by the US Agency for International Development.
Impacts
Knowledge engineering approaches are emerging as the only method for integrating and interpreting complex multidisciplinary data sets. Ecological analyses, land use planning, pollution assessment, preservation of threatened and endangered species, and environmental maintenance and restoration will all be enhanced by incorporation of this paradigm. Specific to this reporting period, the USDI National Park Service is looking at several different approaches, including our NetWeaver-based approach, for potential widespread adoption as a formalized approach to watershed assessments. The Department of Military and Veteran's Affairs are looking to this project as the source of a variety of decision support tools to assist in managing biodiversity resources.
Publications
- Chengpeng B., M. C. Saunders, and B. A. McPheron. 2007. Wing Pattern-Based Classification of the Rhagoletis pomonella Species Complex Using Genetic Neural Networks. Intl. J. Computer Sci & Appl. 4(3)1-14.
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Progress 01/01/06 to 12/31/06
Outputs
Work was initiated on development of a watershed condition model for the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area, and the Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River. This project will seek to identify key indicators of watershed condition which will be implemented in the framework of a GeoNetWeaver based application. Initial meetings have been held and many of the key indicators have been identified. Work on this project is expected to take approximately eighteen months. NetWeaver and GeoNetWeaver have been rewritten to streamline the user interface, and to save projects as binary files rather than the traditional text files. Collaboration with The Redlands Institute has begun in order to make these valuable software engineering tools more available to researchers seeking to develop decision support systems.
Impacts
Knowledge engineering approaches are emerging as the only method for integrating and interpreting complex multidisciplinary data sets. Ecological analyses, land use planning, pollution assessment, preservation of threatened and endangered species, and environmental maintenance and restoration will all be enhanced by incorporation of this paradigm. The software based modeling approaches developed in support of this project are being used throughout the U.S. Forest Service, USDI National Park Service, and internationally by the US Agency for International Development.
Publications
- No publications reported this period
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